Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2015 Q1
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Quarterly Bulletin 2015 Q1 | Volume 55 No. 1 Quarterly Bulletin 2015 Q1 | Volume 55 No. 1 Contents Topical articles Investment banking: linkages to the real economy and the financial system 4 Box Regulatory changes and investment banks 16 Desperate adventurers and men of straw: the failure of City of Glasgow Bank and its enduring impact on the UK banking system 23 Box Amalgamation in the British banking system 32 Capital in the 21st century 36 Box Putting capital in the 21st century in context — Thomas Piketty 39 Box Where has modern equality come from? Lucky and smart paths in economic history — Peter Lindert 40 Box Human capital and inequality in the United Kingdom — Orazio Attanasio and Richard Blundell 41 Box The metamorphosis of wealth in the 21st century — Jaume Ventura 42 Box State capacities and inequality — Timothy Besley 43 The Agencies and ‘One Bank’ 47 Box Recent changes to the Bank of England and the creation of ‘One Bank’ 48 Box Agents’ national scores 51 Self-employment: what can we learn from recent developments? 56 Flora and fauna at the Bank of England 67 Recent economic and financial developments Markets and operations 76 Box Recent moves in the price of oil 78 Report Big data and central banks 86 Summaries of working papers Summaries of recent Bank of England working papers 96 – Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods 96 – Long-term unemployment and convexity in the Phillips curve 97 – A forecast evaluation of expected equity return measures 98 – Do contractionary monetary policy shocks expand shadow banking? 99 – Global liquidity, house prices and the macroeconomy: evidence from advanced and emerging economies 100 – Interactions among high-frequency traders 101 – On a tight leash: does bank organisational structure matter for macroprudential spillovers? 102 – Filtered historical simulation Value-at-Risk models and their competitors 103 – A joint affine model of commodity futures and US Treasury yields 104 Appendices Contents of recent Quarterly Bulletins 106 Bank of England publications 108 The contents page, with links to the articles in PDF, is available at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/quarterlybulletin/default.aspx Author of articles can be contacted at [email protected] Except where otherwise stated, the source of the data used in charts and tables is the Bank of England or the Office for National Statistics (ONS). All data, apart from financial markets data, are seasonally adjusted. Research work published by the Bank is intended to contribute to debate, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank or members of the MPC, FPC or the PRA Board. Quarterly Bulletin Topical articles 3 Topical articles 4 Quarterly Bulletin 2015 Q1 Investment banking: linkages to the real economy and the financial system By Kushal Balluck of the Bank’s Banking and Insurance Analysis Division.(1) • Investment banks play a key role in capital markets and contribute to the efficient functioning of financial markets. As demonstrated in the recent financial crisis, however, investment banks can create and propagate risks in the financial system given their scale, as well as the interconnected and complex nature of their activities. • Recognising investment banks’ systemic importance, a number of international regulatory initiatives have come into force since the onset of the recent financial crisis. Overview The main activities of retail or ‘high street’ banks, such as for themselves (rather than on behalf of clients), may not accepting savers’ deposits, making loans and providing provide such a clear benefit to market functioning. payment services, are well known. In contrast, the functions of investment banks are typically less well understood. This Investment banks also bring risks to the financial system. article describes what investment banks do and highlights With the trading assets of the ten largest banks summing to (2) some of the risks that they can pose. Along the way, it more than £5 trillion, the sheer scale of these banks’ attempts to explain some of the terminology frequently used operations means that liquidity conditions in financial in relation to investment banking — from ‘SPVs’ and ‘CDOs’ markets can be vulnerable to the failure of a single firm. In to ‘bid-offer spreads’ and ‘dark pools’. addition, the web of interconnections between investment banks and other financial institutions can act as a channel for Investment banks help organisations such as companies and the transmission of losses throughout the system, while the government agencies to raise finance through capital complexity of some of their activities also contributes markets. When a company wishes to borrow money by significantly to risks in the global financial system. issuing a bond, for instance, investment banks can help match the company with investors. Investment banks also Many of these risks crystallised during the recent global underwrite the issuance of shares or bonds — that is, they financial crisis when some of the largest global investment guarantee to provide finance at a pre-determined price when banks were taken over, bailed out using public funds or the shares or bonds are issued. declared bankrupt after facing distress. And they remain relevant to financial stability in the United Kingdom, with Investment banks trade in a wide range of financial all of the largest global investment banks having operations instruments — including shares, government and corporate in London. bonds, foreign exchange and commodities such as oil or A number of regulatory initiatives globally have been precious metals, and related derivative instruments. For the implemented since the onset of the global financial crisis to most part, they carry out trades on behalf of their clients. correct the fault lines that contributed to it and to build a Trading in financial instruments (via an investment bank) can safer, more resilient financial system to serve the real help companies to manage their risks. Other clients for economy. The Bank of England has a key role to play in these trading services include retail banks, insurance working with other regulatory bodies globally to fully companies, and financial institutions that manage savers’ implement these measures and ensure that investment funds, such as pension funds and hedge funds. These trading banking activities are conducted in a way that is safe and services can contribute to the efficient functioning of sound. financial markets, thereby serving the needs of end-investors in the real economy. That said, some trading activities, such Click here for a short video that discusses some of the key as the ‘proprietary trading’ that investment banks carry out topics from this article. (1) The author would like to thank Theodore Agbandje-Reid, Andrew Feeney-Seale and Jean-Michel Mazenod for their help in producing this article. (2) Based on the data shown on Table A on page 5. Topical articles Investment banking 5 Most people are familiar with the main functions of retail Table A Banking groups with largest global investment bank banks — sometimes referred to as ‘high street banks’. These activities at December 2013(a) include providing deposits and payment services, as well as making loans. In contrast, investment banks help companies, Banking group Trading assets, £ billions other financial institutions and other organisations (such as JPMorgan 895 government agencies) to raise finance by selling shares or Goldman Sachs 683 bonds to investors and to hedge against risks. Unlike retail Bank of America Merrill Lynch 665 banks, they do not directly serve households.(1) In addition, Citigroup 625 investment banks trade in shares, bonds and other assets with Deutsche Bank 595 other financial market participants, such as insurance Morgan Stanley 564 companies, pension funds and hedge funds. Credit Suisse 511 Barclays 481 All of the large global investment banks have a presence in BNP Paribas 386 London. These banks therefore contribute to UK economic Société Générale 369 activity, and help support the efficient functioning of the HSBC 351 financial system. But investment banks also bring risks to the Royal Bank of Scotland 347 United Kingdom’s financial system. During the recent crisis, UBS 256 Crédit Agricole 163 investment banks were criticised for their excessive risk-taking Mitsubishi UFJ 144 and their role in the creation and systematic mispricing of complex securities. Their activities generated risks which Sources: SNL Financial, published accounts and Bank calculations. contributed to financial instability globally and in the (a) Measured by trading assets. Trading assets are securities, commodities and derivatives held for trading. Derivatives have been adjusted for differences in accounting treatment. Reverse repos have been excluded. United Kingdom. To help manage these risks, investment banks are subject to the FCA and the PRA, and together dominate the provision of regulation. In the United Kingdom, legal entities that have investment banking services here. They are also eligible for permissions to deal in investments are referred to as access to the Bank of England’s liquidity facilities through the ‘investment firms’. Some investment firms are subject to Sterling Monetary Framework. The Financial Stability Board prudential regulation by the Bank of England’s Prudential (FSB) designated all of them as global systemically important Regulation Authority (PRA) by virtue of their importance to banks (G-SIBs).(5) Their status as G-SIBs subjects these the stability of the UK financial system.(2) But investment banking groups to higher prudential standards. They are banking operations are not exclusively carried out by required, for example, to have greater amounts of capital (that investment firms and some entities that carry out investment is, an additional capital buffer) to reduce the likelihood of their banking activities are also PRA-regulated due to their retail failure and protect the global financial system. banking activities. Investment banking activities in the United Kingdom can also be carried out by UK branches of The first section of this article provides a summary of the foreign banks.