DOCSLIB.ORG

Israel and the Middle East News Update

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Israel and the Middle East News Update Israel and the Middle East News Update Monday, April 4 Headlines: Rivlin: If Abbas Is Serious, I Am Ready to Meet with Him Air Force Top Brass Says Israel’s Military Edge Under Threat Hamas and Fatah Take Tentative Steps Towards Unity Hamas: ‘We Have Four Israeli Prisoners of War in Our Custody’ Israeli Envoy Outraged After UN Censors Parts of Pro-Israel Exhibit Israel Reduces Power Supply to West Bank Over Palestinian Debt Orders to Seal Three Terrorists’ Homes Struck Down by High Court Germany Said to Spy on Israeli Prime Minister’s Office Commentary: Yedioth Ahronoth: “Dagan’s Commentary” By Ronen Bergman, Senior Political and Military Analyst, Yedioth Ahronoth Al-Monitor: “Dahlan: Is This the Man Who Will Replace Abbas?” By Adnan Abu Amer, Dean of Faculty of Arts, Al Ummah University S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor News Excerpts April 4, 2016 Arutz Sheva Rivlin: If Abbas Is Serious, I Am Ready to Meet with Him President Reuven Rivlin on Monday met at his residence with Foreign Minister of Czech Republic, Lubomír Zaorálek where Rivlin spoke of the need for direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, and that he hoped the Palestinians engage in direct talks rather than turning to international organizations: "Without confidence between the two sides, there cannot be negotiations, and we will not find a solution." He said that he believes there is a need to end all forms of terror, and find a way to return to the negotiations. The President stressed that if Abbas truly means to take action to stop terrorism and that if he honestly wants to return to direct negotiations, there must be a way to do it. "We must find a way to build confidence between us. I will meet him with the understanding of the Israeli Government of course." See also, “Rivlin Calls for Talks with Palestinians, Says He Would Meet Abbas” (Jerusalem Post) BICOM Air Force Top Brass Says Israel's Military Edge Under Threat One of the most senior officers in Israel’s Air Force (IAF) has warned of a growing threat to Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region, due to a burgeoning arms race in the increasingly unstable Middle East. Brig. Gen. Tal Kalman, Chief of Staff of the IAF said, “There are countries here which have plans that are being actualized for arms deals in the hundreds of billions of dollars, for the most advanced Western weaponry and the most advanced Eastern weaponry.” Kalman explained that, “There is a potential here for the erosion of the IDF’s qualitative edge and the IAF’s qualitative edge.” See also, “Deputy Israel Air Force Chief: Mideast Arms Race Imperils Israel’s Military Superiority” (Ha'aretz) Times of Israel Hamas and Fatah Take Tentative Steps Towards Unity Once again, there are reports of rivals Hamas and Fatah drawing together ahead of an agreement on Palestinian unity. Sources in Gaza and Ramallah said that in the coming two days, meetings will be held in the Qatari capital of Doha between representatives from the two movements. The expectation is that if the meetings in Qatar go well, then Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will visit Doha in the near future to meet with Hamas political bureau head Khaled Mashaal. Jerusalem Post Hamas: ‘We Have Four Israeli Prisoners of War in Our Custody’ Hamas publicly acknowledged on Friday that it is holding the remains of two Israeli soldiers and also has in its custody two Israeli nationals who went missing in the Gaza Strip. The group's military wing, Izzadin Kassam Brigades, released a televised statement through official Hamas media in Gaza on Friday saying Israel will have to make concessions if it wants the Islamist organization to provide information about the conditions of the "four prisoners of war." The Hamas spokesperson assailed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and denied considering the release of the four Israelis. See also, “Egypt Said to Probe Hamas Over Israeli Hostages in Gaza” (Times of Israel) 2 i24 News Israeli Envoy Outraged After UN Censors Pro-Israel Exhibit Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, expressed his outrage Sunday over the intergovernmental organization's decision to disqualify major sections of a special exhibition about Israel which presented information about topics such as Zionism, Jerusalem, and Arab Israelis. The exhibition was created together with the pro-Israel NGO StandWithUs and was scheduled to be opened at the UN on Monday. Danon stated his disappointment about the censorship of the exhibition and demanded that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon reverse the move. "By disqualifying an exhibition about Zionism, the UN is undermining the very existence of the State of Israel as the homeland of the Jewish people,” said Danon. "We will not allow the UN to censor the fact that Jerusalem is Israel’s eternal capital." See also, “UN Censors Exhibit on Zionism Calling Displays 'Inappropriate'” (Algemeiner) Ha’aretz Israel Reduces Power Supply to WB Over Palestinian Debt The Israel Electric Corporation (IEC) is cutting power supplies beginning Monday to the West Bank city of Bethlehem and its environs in response to the failure by the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Jerusalem District Electricity Company to pay their electricity bills. The PA now owes an accumulated debt of 1.7 billion shekels ($449 million) to the Israeli electricity giant, according to company officials. They say they do not see a solution arising in which the authority will fully or even partly pay back its debts despite recent meetings on the issue. IEC staff drew up a plan on Monday morning according to which it will reduce and disrupt the power supply in various parts of the West Bank over the next two weeks. See also, “Israel Electric Corporation to Reduce Power to Bethlehem” (Times of Israel) Ynet News Orders to Seal 3 Terrorists' Homes Struck Down by High Court The High Court of Justice (HCJ) gave a ruling on Sunday, striking down the orders for sealing the homes of three of the five terrorists involved in the attack which killed Alexander Levlovich on Rosh Hashanah eve. Only the home of the central culprit in the attack, Mahmoud Abed Rabbo Dawiyat, will be demolished. Justice Esther Hayut stated, "Even if you can see the three as associated with the inner circle of the killing offense, and I am not giving an opinion on that matter, the administrative evidence which have been detailed, as well as the indictment, show that their part in the incident was much smaller than Dawiyat's." See also, “Israel Razes the Homes of the Three Terrorists Who Killed Border Policewoman” (Ha'aretz) Times of Israel Germany Said to Spy On Israeli Prime Minister's Office Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) has been spying on Israel in recent years, specifically the Prime Minister’s Office, German newspaper Der Spiegel reported Saturday. The report noted that other targets of the BND included the U.S. State Department, the British Defense Ministry, NASA, the U.S. Air Force, and the interior ministries of Austria and Belgium. There were no further details on the alleged information collected from Israel, or when the reported espionage took place. See also, “Germany Spied on Both US and Israel: Report” (Forward) 3 Yedioth Ahronoth – April 4, 2016 Dagan’s Commentary By Ronen Bergman “I came to a decision with myself that I had to get this over with, I wanted to do other things. Also, the truth is that I was fed up with him (Netanyahu—R.B.). I knew a lot of prime ministers. None of them were saintly types. But they had one shared trait: when they reached the point in which their personal interest intersected with the national interest—the national interest always prevailed. There are only two I can’t say that about—Bibi and Barak.” That was the way Meir Dagan explained to me, in a private conversation, his decision to resign as Mossad director. After the liver transplant that Meir Dagan underwent, we began to meet for lengthy conversations. I wanted to get from Dagan his version of security incidents and the decision- making process at the central and secret junctures at which he’d stood. Dagan spoke with me openly and incisively, and was unsparing in his harsh criticism. The contents of those conversations were never published—until this week. The withheld interview with Meir Dagan, who died last month after a lengthy battle with cancer, will be published in full on Friday in Yedioth Ahronoth’s Seven Days weekend magazine. Dagan spoke at length in our conversations about his differences of opinion with Prime Minister Netanyahu. He spoke, for example, about several Mossad operations that Netanyahu initially green-lighted, but which Dagan knew he would soon wish to abort or, as Dagan put it, he would “lose his balls.” Q: What would you do then? “I like falafel. Because I knew he was going to summon me back soon, I’d go out to Mahane Yehuda market (a few minutes’ distance from the Prime Minister’s Office—R.B.) to buy a falafel, and I’d wait for the call, and I wouldn’t begin the drive back to Tel Aviv. When I was less sure, I’d get all the way to the Kurdish restaurant in Mevasseret Zion or a humus place in Abu Ghosh (10-15 minutes from the Prime Minister’s Office—R.B.). The important thing was not to be too far from Jerusalem.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Jousour Bridges and Return
    Jousour, issued by the LPDC represents an array of opinions and perspectives on issues pertaining Palestinian refugees affairs in Lebanon. It aims to expand the realm of rational dialogue between the Lebanese and Palestinians beyond stereotypes and dogmas while contributing to the development of common relationships in a positive and constructive manner. This supplement is distributed for free with An-Nahar, Al-Liwa’a, and The Daily Star. Special Supplement Issue 1, October 2018 The “Deal of the Century” and the UNRWA Crisis: Challenges and Choices Photo by: Haitham Mousawi Lebanon, an asylum 70 Years, from Compassion The “Other” Through Both To Refugees and Displaced To Controversy Pal. and Leb. Eyes Amine Gemayel Tarek Mitri, Abbas Zaki, Husein Abu Elnaml Pernille Dahler Kardel Ziad Sayegh Asaad Shaftari Hasan Mneymneh On “Bridges” Chairman of the Lebanese Palestinian Dialogue Committee e issue this newspaper supplement to introduce the Lebanese and attempting to break free of the chains of the past, including the Lebanese attitudes WPalestinian public opinion to the importance of examining the problematic toward the Palestinians and the Palestinian attitudes toward the Lebanese, under and complex difficulties the joint relations suffer from. These relations have a direct and honest approach. The writers – Lebanese and Palestinian – that extended over the span of this 70-year-old asylum, marked by much serenity and participated with us on this project rely on those fixed principles, considered overshadowed by misunderstanding and controversy that peaked in the years of the Civil War and bloody internal strife. The Lebanese and Palestinian people points of convergence for the Lebanese and Palestinians alike.
    [Show full text]
  • Command and Control | the Washington Institute
    MENU Policy Analysis / Articles & Op-Eds Command and Control by David Makovsky, Olivia Holt-Ivry May 23, 2012 ABOUT THE AUTHORS David Makovsky David Makovsky is the Ziegler distinguished fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Koret Project on Arab-Israel Relations. Olivia Holt-Ivry Articles & Testimony his week, the world's major powers resumed negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program. Should they fail, T the specter of a possible Israeli strike looms large, seeming to grow more likely as Tehran's nuclear program advances. In recent weeks, however, the conventional wisdom has shifted to favor the view that Israel is not on the cusp of a strike against Iran. This has been driven in part by public comments from former Israeli security officials -- notably former Mossad head Meir Dagan and former Shin Bet head Yuval Diskin -- questioning the wisdom of such an attack. An Israeli strike is not feasible, the thinking goes, so long as its security community remains divided -- and the thinly veiled threats of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are therefore mere bluster. Don't be so sure. Dagan and Diskin's views aren't likely to tell us much about the likelihood of a strike on Iran one way or the other. For starters, they're former officials -- given the sensitivity of this issue, and the recent media misinterpretation of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Benny Gantz's remarks earlier this month, no other current members of the security establishment are likely to go public with their views.
    [Show full text]
  • Operation Cast Lead--Zion Fascism at Its Best
    South Asian Studies A Research Journal of South Asian Studies Vol. 29, No.2, July - December 2014, pp. 685-694 Operation Cast Lead--Zion Fascism at Its Best Umbreen Javaid University of Punjab, Lahore. Maliha Shamim University of Punjab, Lahore. Abstract Jews consider themselves to be the original inhabitants of Palestine. It has always been the official policy of Israel to occupy and populate the Palestinian territories. The victories in successive Arab-Israeli wars emboldened Israel to pursue its policy more vigorously. The Palestinians of occupied territories specially those living in West Bank and Gaza have to face the onslaught of Israeli atrocities. After breaking the truce entered into with Hamas, Israel attacked Gaza in December 2008, justifying the attacks as its right of self-defense. The Gazan operation named Operation Lead was not condemned by EU, US or European countries. To prepare the Israeli army for the Gaza offensive the troops were even religiously and politically brainwashed to successfully combat the Palestinians. The elections held after the Gaza offensive and extremist candidates returned to the Israeli parliament. Such extremist stance taken by Israeli public will go a long way in making the already biased Israeli society a more racist and fascist Israeli polity. In the absence of any criticism or condemnation of Israeli actions it pursues the murder and ethnic cleansing of Palestinians with impunity. Accumulation of latest weaponry and warring techniques have transformed Israel into a regional Sparta and religious extremism and fascism have come to assume an important place in today’s Israel. This article has been prepared with the help of newspapers and answers certain questions as why is Palestine most coveted by Jews.
    [Show full text]
  • RSIS COMMENTARIES RSIS Commentaries Are Intended to Provide Timely And, Where Appropriate, Policy Relevant Background and Analysis of Contemporary Developments
    RSIS COMMENTARIES RSIS Commentaries are intended to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy relevant background and analysis of contemporary developments. The views of the authors are their own and do not represent the official position of the S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced electronically or in print with prior permission from RSIS. Due recognition must be given to the author or authors and RSIS. Please email: [email protected] or call (+65) 6790 6982 to speak to the Editor RSIS Commentaries, Yang Razali Kassim. __________________________________________________________________________________________________ No. 156/2011 dated 27 October 2011 Israel and Hamas: A new equation for Mid-East peace? By James M. Dorsey Synopsis Israeli and Palestinian hardliners rather than moderates are serving each other's purpose in the Middle East conflict. That is the underlying dynamic of the political calculations of both Israel and Hamas in the recent lop- sided swap of an Israeli soldier for over a thousand Palestinian prisoners. Commentary THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN peace process remains frozen with little, if any, prospect of it gaining momentum. President Mahmoud Abbas' effort to achieve United Nations recognition of Palestinian statehood in a bid to break the logjam is mired in diplomatic red tape and likely to be foiled by a United States veto if it comes up for a vote in the Security Council. True to form, hardliners on both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian divide are finding common ground where moderates are grasping for straws. In doing so, they are reaffirming a long-standing fact of life of the Israeli- Palestinian equation: hardliners can serve each other’s needs to mutual benefit without making the kind of wrenching concessions that thwart the ambitions of peacemakers and moderates on both sides.
    [Show full text]
  • Signatories. Appeal from Palestine. 20.6
    19/06/2020 Signatories for “Appeal from Palestine to the Peoples and States of the World” Name Current/ Previous Occupation 1. Abbas Zaki Member of the Central Committee of Fatah—Ramallah 2. Abd El-Qader Husseini Chairman of Faisal Husseini Foundation— Jerusalem 3. Abdallah Abu Alhnoud Member of the Fatah Advisory Council— Gaza 4. Abdallah Abu Hamad President of Taraji Wadi Al-Nes Sports Club—Bethlehem 5. Abdallah Hijazi President of the Civil Retired Assembly, Former Ambassador—Ramallah 6. Abdallah Yousif Alsha’rawi President of the Palestinian Motors Sport & Motorcycle & Bicycles Federation— Ramallah 7. Abdel Halim Attiya President of Al-Thahirya Youth Club— Hebron 8. Abdel Jalil Zreiqat President of Tafouh Youth Sports Club— Hebron 9. Abdel Karim Abu Khashan University Lecturer, Birzeit University— Ramallah 10. Abdel Majid Hijeh Secretary-General of the Olympic Committee—Ramallah 11. Abdel Majid Sweilem University Lecturer and Journalist— Ramallah 12. Abdel Qader Hasan Abdallah Secretary General of the Palestine Workers Kabouli Union—Lebanon, Alkharoub Region 13. Abdel Rahim Mahamid Secretary of the Al-Taybeh Sports Club— Ramallah 14. Abdel Raof Asqoul Storyteller—Tyre 15. Abdel Salam Abu Nada Expert in Media Development—Brussels 16. Abdel-Rahman Tamimi Director General of the Palestinian Hydrology Group—Ramallah 17. Abdo Edrisi President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry—Hebron 18. Abdul Rahman Bseiso Retired Ambassador—Cyprus 19. Abdul Rahman Hamad Former Minister—Gaza 20. Abu Ali Masoud Vice-Chairman of the Fatah Advisory Council—Ramallah 21. Adalah Abu Sitta Chairwoman of the Board of Directors of the Right to Live Society—Gaza 22. Adel Al-Asta Writer—Gaza 23.
    [Show full text]
  • מחלקת שפות זרות/FA & Defence/3953
    c. Method As proposed by the Chairman, the task was given to the Sub-Committee for Intelligence and the Secret Services, comprising six members of the Knesset. The members of the committee are: MK Yuval Steinitz – chair, MK Ehud Yatom, MK David Levy, MK Haim Ramon, MK Eli Yishai and MK Ilan Leibovitch. MK Danny Yatom, who was replaced in the course of the committee’s work as part of the rotation of members of the Labor faction in the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, also contributed to the work of the committee at the beginning. Mr. Shabtai Shavit – a former head of the Mossad - served as a consultant to the committee. The committee takes this opportunity to thank him for his significant contribution. The senior professional assistant of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Colonel (res.) Shmuel Letko, served as the secretary of the committee. The work of the committee was closely accompanied by the incoming Director-General of the Committee, R. Admiral (res.) Avriel Bar-Joseph, and by the outgoing Director-General of the Committee, Mr. Baruch Friedner, who was also given the task of writing the report. The Committee began its work in July 2003 and completed it recently. The Committee held some 30 plenum sessions and scores of smaller work meetings, in the course of which the following, inter alia, appeared before it: The Prime Minister, Mr. Ariel Sharon The Minister of Defense, Mr. Shaul Mofaz The Deputy Minister of Defense, Mr. Zeev Boim The Chief-of-Staff, Lieutenant General Moshe (Boogy) Ya'alon The Head of Military Intelligence, Major-General Aharon (Farkash) Zeevi 13 The Head of the Mossad, Major-General (res.) Mr.
    [Show full text]
  • Lebanon's Palestinian Refugee Camps
    NURTURING INSTABILITY: LEBANON’S PALESTINIAN REFUGEE CAMPS Middle East Report N°84 – 19 February 2009 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION: THE PALESTINIAN PRESENCE IN LEBANON ..................... 1 A. MULTIPLICITY OF ACTORS AND CAMPS ........................................................................................1 1. Main political actors.................................................................................................................1 2. Palestinian refugees and camps ................................................................................................1 II. THE EVOLUTION OF LEBANESE-PALESTINIAN RELATIONS......................... 4 A. OPEN WARFARE (1969-1990).......................................................................................................4 B. THE POST-WAR YEARS (1990-2004).............................................................................................6 C. 2004-2005: TURNING POINT OR DEAD END? ................................................................................7 1. UNSCR 1559...........................................................................................................................7 2. The Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee........................................................................9 3. Nahr al-Bared: a difficult test case..........................................................................................11 D. THE REFUGEES’ PRECARIOUS
    [Show full text]
  • Israel's Struggle Against Hamas
    Università degli Studi “Roma Tre” Scuola Dottorale in Scienze Politiche XXV Ciclo Israel’s Struggle Against Hamas Supervisore Dottorando Prof. Leopoldo Nuti Niccolò Petrelli Coordinatore della Sezione Prof. Leopoldo Nuti Introduction The PhD research, ‘Israel’s Struggle against Hamas: Strategic Culture, Adaptation and War’, studies the impact of cultural factors on the Israeli counter-insurgency vis-à-vis Hamas in the period comprised between 1987 and 2005, analyzing to what extent the peculiar traits of the Israeli approach to security and military affairs account for the shaping of a distinct ‘way of war’ and for the successes and failures of the Jewish state in countering the Islamic Resistance Movement’s insurgency. The concept of ‘counter-insurgency’ is logically contingent on that of ‘insurgency’, to which it applies. Being insurgency a protracted struggle to control a contested political space conducted by one or more popularly based non-state challengers1, ‘counter-insurgency’ could be defined as all those measures through which elements of national power are applied for the purpose of suppressing an insurgency. From this definition it appears clear how the concept constitutes an analytical paradigm through which scholars and practitioners approach asymmetric warfare (or war against ‘irregulars’, ‘partisans’ or ‘guerrillas’), that is struggles between non-state and state actors.2 Although old as human civilization, asymmetric warfare rose to prominence after 1945, coming to represent the norm, rather than the exception, of war.3 The end of the Cold War and the last two decades seemed to confirm the ascendancy of this specific kind of warfare over ‘conventional’ or ‘symmetric warfare’ and the setting of a pattern that will probably continue for some time.4 Counter-insurgency represents therefore a topic worth to study not only by virtue of its prominence in the history of warfare, but also in light of the nature of the conflicts confronting the international community, either currently and possibly also in the near future.
    [Show full text]
  • Former Aman Chief Offers Realism on Threats to Israel - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of The
    Former Aman Chief Offers Realism on Threats to Israel - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the... Page 1 of 3 Former Aman Chief Offers Realism on Threats to Israel By: Ben Caspit for Al-Monitor Israel Pulse. Posted on February 8. READ IN HEBREW Major General (res.) Amos Yadlin had served as head of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate (Aman) until two years ago. In Israel, the head of Aman is viewed as the country’s “national evaluator,” the man who heads the Subcommittee for Intelligence and Secret Services, a forum in which the Shin Bet and Mossad chiefs also participate, together with the prime minister’s military secretary. At the end of the day, Israel’s national intelligence assessment is in the hands of Aman, the organization that dominates the lion's share of Israel’s first-rate and extremely experienced intelligence community. The role of Aman chief is Israel’s most sensitive, most responsible and most explosive position in the country. About This Article Yadlin is a cautious and reserved man, an outstanding air force pilot who participated in the bombing of the Iraqi reactor. He was born to a political family (his father, Aharon Yadlin, was education minister). He nurtures gentlemanly manners and European breeding in the heart of the rough-and-tumble Middle East. He is Summary : partner to some of the incisive criticism brought against Israel’s captains by his colleagues, former Mossad Former IDF intelligence chief Amos head Meir Dagan and former Shin Bet head Yuval Diskin, but he is careful to express his criticism with the Yadlin has discounted Prime Minister utmost discretion and not air it in the public domain.
    [Show full text]
  • Ex-Security Chiefs Publicly Oppose Attack on Iran
    Ex-Security Chiefs Publicly Oppose Attack on Iran Avnery at a demonstration. Click here for JJ Goldberg’s view of the recent Jerusalem Post conference in New York, which had a very right-wing tenor, but also some instances of sharp dissent and acrimony. The following is part of Uri Avnery’s “A Putsch Against War” piece, May 5. Our reference to this column is out of respect for him as an intelligent observer, but should not be read as an endorsement for all his views: …. IT STARTED with the most unlikely candidate to lead such a rebellion: the ex-Mossad chief, Meir Dagan. For eight years, longer than most of his predecessors, Dagan led the Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service, comparable to the British MI6. (“Mossad” means “institute”. The official name is “The Institute for intelligence and Special Operations”.) Nobody ever accused Dagan of pacifism. During his term, the Mossad carried out many assassinations, several against Iranian scientists, as well as cyber attacks. A protégé of Ariel Sharon, he was considered a champion of the most aggressive policies. And here, after leaving office, he speaks out in the harshest terms against the government’s plans for an attack on Iran’s nuclear installations. Not mincing words, he said: “This is the stupidest idea I have heard in my life.” This week he was overshadowed by the recently relieved chief of the Shin Bet. (Shin Bet and Shabak are different ways of pronouncing the initials of the official Hebrew name “General Security Service.”) It is equivalent to the British MI5, but deals mostly with the Palestinians in Israel and the occupied territories.
    [Show full text]
  • Will Israel Blast the Iranian Bomb
    WILL ISRAEL BLASTBLAST THE By Michael Karpin IRANIAN BOMB ? he idea of nuclear weapons in the hands of a dangerous Israel also has two spy satellites, and according to non-Israeli enemy like Iran is unacceptable to nearly all Israelis. sources, Israel uses the Kurdish territory in northern Iraq There is no chance that Israel will reconcile itself to to put agents into Iran to gather data. It can be assumed that living with nuclear threats from the ayatollahs. If Iran the two countries have accumulated some useful material continues on the path to atomic weaponry, is Israel on the defenses at known nuclear sites in Iran, especially the capable of acting to eliminate that danger? operational centrifuge installation at Natanz, and the reactor TIsraelis hope for a diplomatic solution leading to cancellation at Arak due to be completed in 2009 (and able to extract of the Iranian nuclear program. But what if negotiations fail? plutonium from spent uranium shortly thereafter). Israel would prefer American military intervention, yet the It is doubtful that attacks on Natanz and Arak would eradicate prevalent opinion among Israeli experts is that the U.S. would be Iran’s nuclear plans. Learning from the bombing of Iraq’s very hesitant to use force against Iran. Meanwhile, political and Osirak reactor by the Israeli air force in 1981, Iran has no doubt military leaders in Israel have repeatedly declared that if and when dispersed other subterranean uranium enrichment plants across Iran reaches the point of no return, Israel will not hesitate to take the country. If one were hit, another could be activated.
    [Show full text]
  • 201204.Friedman.Iran-Israel-Calculus
    Foreign Policy Research Institute E-Notes A Catalyst for Ideas Distributed via Email and Posted at www.fpri.org April 2012 IRAN IN ISRAEL’S STRATEGIC CALCULUS By Brandon Friedman Brandon Friedman is a Research Fellow at the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University. This article is based on his February 27, 2012 talk at FPRI on “Muscle-Flexing, Quiet Diplomacy, and Iran's Nuclear Program,” The audiocast of this event can be accessed here: http://www.fpri.org/multimedia/2012/20120227.friedman.iran.html “Will Israel Attack Iran?” was the provocative headline of respected Israeli journalist Ronen Bergman’s January story published in The New York Times Magazine. Bergman claimed that “yes,” Israel would attack Iran in 2012.1 A few days later, Israeli scholar Barry Rubin published a long article of his own which argued that “no,” Israel would not strike Iran.2 So, which is it? Yes or no? The less satisfactory answer, the less media-worthy answer, but perhaps the more accurate and honest answer is that “it depends.” And therefore, the better question to ask, it seems to me, is under what set of circumstances is the current Israeli leadership more or less likely to feel it must take independent military action? Before I address that question, however, I would like to briefly explain the three assumptions that underlie my interpretation of this issue. First, I believe Iran’s ultimate goal is a nuclear weapons capability. Second, I believe Israel's security cabinet has not yet made any decision about a military strike on Iran but that the current government views a nuclear-armed Iran as an unacceptable outcome.
    [Show full text]