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Prism Vol. 9, No. 1 2020 PRISMVOL. 9, NO. 1 | 2020 PRISM VOL. 9, NO. 1 NO. 9, VOL. THE JOURNAL OF COMPLEX OPER ATIONS ABOUT PRISM PRISM, the quarterly journal of complex operations published at National Defense VOL. 9, NO. 1, 2020 University (NDU), aims to illuminate and provoke debate on whole-of-government efforts to conduct reconstruction, stabilization, counterinsurgency, and irregular EDITOR IN CHIEF warfare operations. Since the inaugural issue of PRISM in 2010, our readership has Mr. Michael Miklaucic expanded to include more than 10,000 officials, servicemen and women, and practi- tioners from across the diplomatic, defense, and development communities in more ASSOCIATE EDITOR than 80 countries. Mr. Dale Erickson PRISM is published with support from NDU’s Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS). In 1984, Secretary of Defense Casper Weinberger established INSS EDITORIAL ASSISTANTS within NDU as a focal point for analysis of critical national security policy and Ms. Lolei Brenot defense strategy issues. Today INSS conducts research in support of academic and Ms. Julia Filan leadership programs at NDU; provides strategic support to the Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, combatant commands, and armed services; Ms. Julianna Pestretto and engages with the broader national and international security communities. INTERNET PUBLICATIONS COMMUNICATIONS EDITOR PRISM welcomes unsolicited manuscripts from policymakers, practitioners, and Ms. Joanna E. Seich scholars, particularly those that present emerging thought, best practices, or train- ing and education innovations. Publication threshold for articles and critiques varies DESIGN but is largely determined by topical relevance, continuing education for national and Mr. John Mitrione, U.S. international security professionals, scholarly standards of argumentation, quality of Government Publishing Office writing, and readability. To help achieve threshold, authors are strongly encouraged to recommend clear solutions or to arm the reader with actionable knowledge. EDITORIAL BOARD Our review process can last several months. The PRISM editorial staff will Dr. Gordon Adams contact authors during that timeframe accepting or regretfully rejecting the submis- sion. If the staff is unable to publish a submission within four months of acceptance, Dr. Pauline Baker PRISM will revert publication rights to the author so that they may explore other Ambassador Rick Barton publication options. Dr. Alain Bauer Constructive comments and contributions are important to PRISM. We also wel- Dr. Hans Binnendijk come Letters to the Editor that are exclusive to PRISM—we do not publish open letters. ADM Dennis Blair, USN (ret.) The PRISM editorial staff will contact authors within two months of submission if they accept the letter for publication. Ambassador James Dobbins Potential authors can submit their manuscript for blind peer review at <prism@ Dr. Francis Fukuyama ndu.edu>. Writing guidelines, tips, and tricks are available at <https://ndupress.ndu. Ambassador Marc Grossman edu/Journals/PRISM/>. Ambassador John Herbst Dr. Laura Junor (ex officio) DISCLAIMER This is the authoritative, official U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) edition Dr. David Kilcullen of PRISM. Any copyrighted portions of this journal may not be reproduced or Ambassador Jacques Paul Klein extracted without permission of the copyright proprietors. PRISM should be Dr. Roger B. Myerson acknowledged whenever material is quoted from or based on its content. Dr. Moisés Naím The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied Ambassador Thomas Pickering within are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of DOD or any other agency of the Federal Government, or any other organization Dr. William Reno associated with this publication. Lt. Gen. John F. Sattler, USMC (ret.) Dr. James A. Schear Dr. Joanna Spear ADM James Stavridis, USN (ret.) Dr. Ruth Wedgwood ISSN 2157-0663 FEATURES VOL. 9, NO. 1 3 The Essence of the Strategic Competition with China By Michael J. Mazarr 23 Rediscovering a Strategic Purpose for NATO By Peter Ricketts PRISM 33 The Evolution of Authoritarian Digital Influence: Grappling with the New Normal By Shanthi Kalathil 53 Quantum Computing’s Cyber-Threat to National Security By Steve Grobman 69 No Competition Without Presence: Should the U.S. Leave Africa By Katherine Zimmerman 89 China’s Strategic Objectives in a Post-Covid-19 World By Benjamin Tze Ern Ho 103 International Competition to Provide Security Force Assistance in Africa: Civil- Military Relations Matter By Jahara Matisek 115 Don’t Trust Anyone: The ABCs of Building Resilient Telecommunications Networks By Andy Purdy, Vladimir M. Yordanov, and Yair Kler www.ndu.edu 131 Is China Expansionist? By Kishore Mahbubani INTERVIEW 140 General (Ret.) Joseph Votel Interviewed by Michael Miklaucic BOOK REVIEWS 147 Exercise of Power: American Failures, Successes, and a New Path Forward in the Post- Cold War World, by Robert Gates Reviewed by James Stavridis 150 The Return of the Russian Leviathan, by Sergei Medvedev Reviewed by John Herbst 153 The Dragons and the Snakes: How the Rest Learned to Fight the West, by David Kilcullen Reviewed by Carter Malkesian 2020 “A geopolitical competition between free and repressive visions of world order is taking place in the Indo-Pacific region.” National Security Strategy of the United States of America, 2017. (Staff Sgt. D. Myles Cullen (USAF), 22 March 2007) 2 | FEATURES PRISM 9, NO. 1 The Essence of the Strategic Competition with China Michael J. Mazarr .S. national security strategy and defense policy have come to focus on China as the primary empha- sis in the “strategic competition” outlined by recent U.S. strategy documents.1 Outside government, an avalanche of recent reports and essays lays out the China challenge in sometimes fervent terms, Udepicting an ideologically threatening revisionist state with malign intentions. As the Financial Times colum- nist Martin Wolf put it recently, “Across-the-board rivalry with China is becoming an organizing principle of U.S. economic, foreign and security policies.”2 There is little question that China’s growing power, its military buildup, its bold regional and eventu- ally global ambitions, and its outsized self-conception pose very real challenges to the United States and the post-war, rule-based order. China is neither infinitely powerful nor wholly malicious. But its belligerent coer- cion of its neighbors, threat to use force to absorb Taiwan,3 violations of human rights, predatory economic behavior, and many other activities mark its rise as a potential threat to U.S. security and any sort of rule- based international system. Yet there remains a question of precisely what sort of challenge China poses—and, by extension, the true essence of the emerging competition. This article argues for one answer to that question: At its core, the United States and China are competing to shape the foundational global system—the essential ideas, habits, and expectations that govern international politics. It is ultimately a competition of norms, narratives, and legitimacy; a contest to have predominant influence over the reigning global paradigm. That paradigm, I will argue, is comprised of four components; economic and political values, cultural influences, leading rules and norms embodied in international law, agreements, and practice, and leadership of and standards reflected in international institutions. The article also contends that, despite its massive investments in propaganda tools and economic statecraft, China remains starkly ill-equipped to win such a competition—but the United States could, through self-imposed mistakes, lose it. The article makes this case in four parts. First it offers reasons why other components of the com- petition often said to be central—military, economic, and clashing geopolitical interests—are in fact Michael Mazarr is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the findings of a specific RAND study. Portions of this essay previously appeared in an edited set of essays released by the Strategic Multilayer Assessment in the Joint Staff J-7. PRISM 9, NO. 1 FEATURES | 3 MAZARR secondary aspects of the emerging rivalry. Second, The Military Competition the essay reviews various theories of power to The U.S.-China contest, for example, has an import- make the case that direct, coercive power is both ant military component. China poses an obvious less effective and less sustainable in the long-term danger to Taiwan. It has coerced other claimants than more indirect, systemic forms of the kind at to contested areas of the South China Sea, waged a stake in the competition for the wider paradigm. limited war against Vietnam, and tangled with India Third, this analysis examines theories of legiti- over disputed land. It is engaged in a potent military macy and legitimate authority to further define buildup. Even short of war, credible military power is the ways in which states gain systemic influence. a critical supporting instrument to reassure friends Fourth and finally, drawing on those theoretical and allies and avert a creeping belief that there is no foundations, the essay defines the characteristics alternative but to knuckle under to China. of the current competition for the paradigm and Yet the military threat posed by China is muted in outlines implications for U.S. policy. comparison to classic militaristic predators, at least
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