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Decision Center for a Desert City: the Science and Policy of Climate Uncertainty

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Decision Center for a Desert City: the Science and Policy of Climate Uncertainty DECISION CENTER FOR A DESERT CITY: THE SCIENCE AND POLICY OF CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY Science Vulnerability and and Technology Resilience Policy Climate Decision Science Decision Science Center for a Desert City Decision Education Tools Outreach Proposal Submitted to National Science Foundation July 15, 2003 by Patricia A. Gober, Department of Geography Charles L. Redman, Center for Environmental Studies Robert Bolin, Department of Sociology Grady Gammage Jr., Attorney at Law Thomas Taylor, Department of Mathematics DECISION CENTER FOR A DESERT CITY: THE SCIENCE AND POLICY OF CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Project Summary .............................................................. Project Description ...........................................................1 RATIONALE FOR THE CENTER ...................................................1 KNOWLEDGE AREAS ...........................................................3 Science and Technology Policy Analysis, and the Construction of Boundary Organiza- tions......................................................................3 Climate Science. ...........................................................4 Vulnerability Analysis and Resilience Theory. ..................................5 Decision Science. ..........................................................6 Application of Knowledge Areas. .............................................7 TARGETED RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES ...........................................7 Focused Climate and Hydrological Studies. ....................................8 Physical Vulnerability. .....................................................8 Social Vulnerability. .......................................................8 Spatial Variability in Municipal Uncertainty. ..................................8 Planning on the Urban Fringe. ...............................................8 Competing for Water under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty. ..................8 Cascading Effects of Urban Growth. ..........................................8 Existing and Envisioned Water Markets. ......................................9 Politics. ..................................................................9 Native American Water Rights. ..............................................9 AREAS OF ENGAGEMENT .......................................................9 GIScience and Decision-Support Tools ........................................9 Education and Human Resource Development. ...............................10 Outreach Activities .......................................................11 THE STUDY AREA ............................................................13 RESULTS OF PRIOR SUPPORT ...................................................15 MANAGEMENT PLAN .........................................................16 Science and Technology Policy/Boundary Organizations. ........................17 Climate Science. ..........................................................19 Vulnerability Analysis and Resilience Theory. .................................19 Page Decision Science. .........................................................19 GIScience and Decision-Support Tools/Outreach Activities. .....................19 Education and Human Resource Development. ...............................19 BRIDGES TO THE COMMUNITY ..................................................19 BROADER IMPACTS ...........................................................20 References ...................................................................1 COVER SHEET FOR PROPOSAL TO THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION PROGRAM ANNOUNCEMENT/SOLICITATION NO./CLOSING DATE/if not in response to a program announcement/solicitation enter NSF 03-041 FOR NSF USE ONLY NSF 03-552 07/15/03 NSF PROPOSAL NUMBER FOR CONSIDERATION BY NSF ORGANIZATION UNIT(S) (Indicate the most specific unit known, i.e. program, division, etc.) BCS - CCRI-DEC MAKING UNDER UNCERTAI (continued) DATE RECEIVED NUMBER OF COPIES DIVISION ASSIGNED FUND CODE DUNS# (Data Universal Numbering System) FILE LOCATION 943360412 EMPLOYER IDENTIFICATION NUMBER (EIN) OR SHOW PREVIOUS AWARD NO. IF THIS IS IS THIS PROPOSAL BEING SUBMITTED TO ANOTHER FEDERAL TAXPAYER IDENTIFICATION NUMBER (TIN) A RENEWAL AGENCY? YES NO IF YES, LIST ACRONYM(S) AN ACCOMPLISHMENT-BASED RENEWAL 860196696 NAME OF ORGANIZATION TO WHICH AWARD SHOULD BE MADE ADDRESS OF AWARDEE ORGANIZATION, INCLUDING 9 DIGIT ZIP CODE Arizona State University Arizona State University Box 3503 AWARDEE ORGANIZATION CODE (IF KNOWN) Tempe, AZ. 85287 0010819000 NAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION, IF DIFFERENT FROM ABOVE ADDRESS OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION, IF DIFFERENT, INCLUDING 9 DIGIT ZIP CODE PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE (IF KNOWN) IS AWARDEE ORGANIZATION (Check All That Apply) SMALL BUSINESS MINORITY BUSINESS IF THIS IS A PRELIMINARY PROPOSAL (See GPG II.C For Definitions) FOR-PROFIT ORGANIZATION WOMAN-OWNED BUSINESS THEN CHECK HERE TITLE OF PROPOSED PROJECT Decision Center for a Desert City REQUESTED AMOUNT PROPOSED DURATION (1-60 MONTHS) REQUESTED STARTING DATE SHOW RELATED PRELIMINARY PROPOSAL NO. IF APPLICABLE $ 7,497,944 60months 01/01/04 CHECK APPROPRIATE BOX(ES) IF THIS PROPOSAL INCLUDES ANY OF THE ITEMS LISTED BELOW BEGINNING INVESTIGATOR (GPG I.A) HUMAN SUBJECTS (GPG II.C.11) DISCLOSURE OF LOBBYING ACTIVITIES (GPG II.C) Exemption Subsection or IRB App. Date PROPRIETARY & PRIVILEGED INFORMATION (GPG I.B, II.C.6) INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE ACTIVITIES: COUNTRY/COUNTRIES INVOLVED HISTORIC PLACES (GPG II.C.9) (GPG II.C.9) SMALL GRANT FOR EXPLOR. RESEARCH (SGER) (GPG II.C.11) VERTEBRATE ANIMALS (GPG II.C.11) IACUC App. Date HIGH RESOLUTION GRAPHICS/OTHER GRAPHICS WHERE EXACT COLOR REPRESENTATION IS REQUIRED FOR PROPER INTERPRETATION (GPG I.E.1) PI/PD DEPARTMENT PI/PD POSTAL ADDRESS Department of Geography PI/PD FAX NUMBER Tempe, AZ 852870104 602-965-8313 United States NAMES (TYPED) High Degree Yr of Degree Telephone Number Electronic Mail Address PI/PD NAME Patricia Gober PhD 1975 602-965-7533 [email protected] CO-PI/PD Robert Bolin PhD 1976 480-965-3546 [email protected] CO-PI/PD Grady Gammage JD 1976 480-965-9011 [email protected] CO-PI/PD Charles L Redman PhD 1971 480-965-2975 [email protected] CO-PI/PD Thomas J Taylor PhD 1983 480-965-3778 [email protected] Page 1 of 2 DECISION CENTER FOR A DESERT CITY: THE SCIENCE AND POLICY OF CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY Project Summary The existence of urbanized Phoenix is graphic testament to the power of human planning and management to deal with severe climatic challenges. Faced with a place that alternates between extreme aridity and episodic flooding, successive waves of desert dwellers took steps to implement one of the most extensive water storage and delivery systems on the planet. This physical infrastructure of dams, reservoirs, canals, and aqueducts, as well as the operating rules that govern its management, has insulated Phoenix from the harshness and uncertainty of its climate—until recently. Current drought conditions that have brought crisis to Southern California, Las Vegas, and rural Arizona have alerted the general public that rapidly urbanizing Phoenix is not far behind. Growing concern among water managers has brought them to collaborate with ASU scientists and policy analysts to enhance the region’s adaptive capacity to deal with climate uncertainties in the future. Phoenix’s water management is a superb laboratory for study because of its past success, the severity of its current risk, the magnitude of future demand, and the quintessential importance of water to the region’s economic development. Five iterative activities characterize the academic-practitioner collaboration at the heart of the proposed Decision Center for a Desert City. First the teams will build a comprehensive model of central Arizona’s climate-water supply-demand relationships and their uncertainties. Second, they will develop formal decision models reflecting real-world problems. Third, they will formulate scenarios to explore system dynamics under alternate climatic conditions and communicate them in an immersive Decision Theater. Fourth, stakeholders will evaluate the process and the tools provided. And finally, researchers, policy makers, and stakeholders will assess the outcomes and actions to be taken. The intellectual merit of this proposed center lies in a deeper understanding of human decision making in the face of climatic uncertainty in a rapidly urbanizing region. Studies will investigate the spatial and temporal impacts of climate cycles and global warming on the desert Southwest and identify people, places, and times most vulnerable to drought and flood. In pin- pointing critical variables and thresholds in coupled human-natural systems, results will yield early-warning signals of catastrophic system change. Multi-method approaches to decision making will produce richer depictions of human decision making and more usable decision tools. Finally, this social experiment involving close interaction between scientists and policy makers will help refine the nature of a successful boundary organization that links science and policy. By focusing on engagement areas of tools, education, and outreach, the Center will have broader impacts on societal decision making. Interdisciplinary teams will produce better climate forecasts and information programs to improve their implementation, develop GIS-based decision tools for civic leaders, citizens, students, and other researchers, and create innovative education programs that foster interdisciplinary study of coupled
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