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False Alarms, Accidents and Near-Disasters Involving Nuclear Weapons

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www.akav.de www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-LONG-de.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-SHORT-de.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-FOUR-PAGES-de.pdf 1/140 www.akav.de www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-LONG-en.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-SHORT-en.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-FOUR-PAGES-en.pdf False alarms, accidents and near-disasters involving nuclear weapons Uwe Werner Schierhorn [email protected] https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsXMxPLYeDTniZ2aKX4b6fA Wesseling, 16 June, 2021 www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-LONG-en.pdf A long version, a short version and a 4-page version of this article, which can be printed out reduced 2:1, are available here: www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-LONG-de.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-SHORT-de.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-FOUR-PAGES-de.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-LONG-en.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-SHORT-en.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-FOUR-PAGES-en.pdf For reasons of environmental protection, we ask you to consider whether a printout, especially of the long version article, is really necessary! See also www.akav.de Quote: "You know, when you can launch rockets so fast, accidents are bound to happen. Just as Fermi said about physics. What is not forbidden is prescribed. At some point it will happen. There is nothing that makes it impossible to launch nuclear weapons. If the probability is not 'zero', then it will happen." Frank von Hippel, nuclear physicist, Princeton University in "Countdown to Zero" (2010) Aims of the article The aim of the article is to present relevant events concerning false alarms, accidents and near-disasters with nuclear weapons and to evaluate their causes. To this end, the long version of the article is structured in a particularly user-friendly way; all relevant information from a wide variety of sources is incorporated as continuous text 1:1, without the need to go to the internet with links or to procure literature. The findings of the article are listed in the section "Introduction to the topic"/"Causes of false alarms, accidents and near-disasters involving nuclear weapons". A breakdown by cause and time period can be found in the "Table of Causes" section. A listing of the events in 1-line form with time and location information and with coded cause can be found in the "Events (short presentation)" section. A detailed listing of the events with time and place, with coded cause, with detailed descriptions from various sources including source designation can be found in the section "Events (long presentation)" - each paragraph corresponds to a source and is assigned to the respective source by the source number at the end of the paragraph. In the "Sources" section, one finds the type of source, a link if it exists, the name of the source and a short list of all the events that the source otherwise contains - set in brackets by time and keyword at the end of the respective source. Fehlalarme, Unfälle und Beinahe-Katastrophen mit Atomwaffen/ False alarms, accidents and near-disasters involving nuclear weapons www.akav.de www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-LONG-de.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-SHORT-de.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-FOUR-PAGES-de.pdf 2/140 www.akav.de www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-LONG-en.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-SHORT-en.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-FOUR-PAGES-en.pdf Table of contents Introduction to the topic 5 Causes of false alarms, accidents and near-disasters involving nuclear weapons 5 How are nuclear weapons accidents defined? 5 Unfälle bei der Marine/Naval accidents 6 The USA is missing 17 nuclear bombs. At least 6 Plutonium core 7 Permissive Aktion Link 7 Table of causes 8 Events (short presentation) 9 1940 till 1949 9 1950 till 1959 9 1960 till 1969 9 1970 till 1979 10 1980 till 1989 10 1990 till 1999 11 2000 till 2009 11 2010 till 2019 11 2020 till 2029 11 Events (long presentation) 13 1940 till 1949 13 1949 13 1950 till 1959 14 1950 14 1951 18 1952 20 1953 20 1954 20 1955 20 1956 20 1957 22 1958 22 1959 26 1960 till 1969 26 Fehlalarme, Unfälle und Beinahe-Katastrophen mit Atomwaffen/ False alarms, accidents and near-disasters involving nuclear weapons www.akav.de www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-LONG-de.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-SHORT-de.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-FOUR-PAGES-de.pdf 3/140 www.akav.de www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-LONG-en.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-SHORT-en.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-FOUR-PAGES-en.pdf 1960 26 1961 27 1962 32 1963 41 1964 41 1965 41 1966 42 1967 47 1968 49 1969 68 1970 till 1979 68 1970 68 1971 68 1972 68 1973 69 1974 69 1975 70 1976 71 1977 71 1978 71 1979 71 1980 till 1989 74 1980 74 1981 82 1982 82 1983 84 1984 109 1985 109 1986 113 1987 114 1988 114 1989 114 1990 till 1999 116 1990 116 1991 116 1992 116 Fehlalarme, Unfälle und Beinahe-Katastrophen mit Atomwaffen/ False alarms, accidents and near-disasters involving nuclear weapons www.akav.de www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-LONG-de.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-SHORT-de.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-FOUR-PAGES-de.pdf 4/140 www.akav.de www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-LONG-en.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-SHORT-en.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-FOUR-PAGES-en.pdf 1993 116 1994 116 1995 116 1996 118 1997 118 1998 118 1999 118 2000 till 2009 118 2000 118 2001 118 2002 118 2003 118 2004 118 2005 118 2006 119 2007 119 2008 123 2009 123 2010 till 2019 123 2010 123 2011 124 2012 124 2013 124 2014 124 2015 125 2016 125 2017 126 2018 127 2019 127 2020 till 2029 128 2020 128 2021 130 XXXX 131 Sources 133 Fehlalarme, Unfälle und Beinahe-Katastrophen mit Atomwaffen/ False alarms, accidents and near-disasters involving nuclear weapons www.akav.de www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-LONG-de.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-SHORT-de.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-FOUR-PAGES-de.pdf 5/140 www.akav.de www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-LONG-en.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-SHORT-en.pdf www.fwes.info/fubk-21-1-FOUR-PAGES-en.pdf Introduction to the topic Technical note: The findings of the article are listed in the section "Introduction to the topic"/"Causes of false alarms, accidents and near-disasters involving nuclear weapons". Causes of false alarms, accidents and near disasters involving nuclear weapons The 87 events listed since the end of the 1940s have varying potential for nuclear detonations events have varying potential for nuclear detonation, use of nuclear weapons, nuclear escalation, nuclear winter or the destruction of all life in the northern hemisphere or the entire Earth. They show technical and human failure in roughly equal proportions, about 43 to 38, causal for false alarms, accidents and near disasters. Thus, it cannot be assumed that improvements can be expected on the part of humans or technology, which is becoming increasingly complex and thus more prone to error. Even new technologies, such as A.I. (Artificial Intelligence), processing incomplete, vague and uncertain information, do not provide a way out. There are avoidable as well as unavoidable events. Failures of machinery are mainly attributable to carrier systems (air/land/sea) and sensor technology, but also to computer problems. On the human side, mishap and bad decisions are at the top of the list, followed by sloppiness and drug use. In terms of time, there is a high density of events during the (Turkish) Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 and during the 1980s at a time of high armament (70,ooo warheads). In the 1950s and 1960s, there were a number of losses of nuclear weapons by falling from aircraft, mostly into the sea, or in the form of sinking submarines. To date, at least 50 nuclear warheads and 9 nuclear reactors have been lost at sea, and these must be found, recovered and removed. There was never a nuclear chain reaction, but radioactive contamination after detonations. Many people were injured and almost 4oo people died. In some cases, there was a lack of communication or access to nuclear missiles over a long period of time. Crews were unfit for duty (alcohol, etc.). The most critical event, apart from the (Turkish) Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, was the NATO Nuclear Command Staff Exercise "ABLE ARCHER 83" prepared from 2 November 1983 and conducted from 7-11 November, and preceding activities by the Soviets. At that time, misinterpretation and group dynamics prevailed in Moscow. They felt under pressure to pre-empt the misinterpreted "NATO attack" with a decapitation strike in accordance with the "RJaN" plan. However, the spy at NATO headquarters, Rainer Wolfgang Rupp (Topas), calmed the Soviet Union with his information to the command officer Karl Rehbaum, thus having a de-escalating effect on the Soviet side and contributing to peace. Other highly critical events would be in connection with the duty officer of Base Volk Field Wisconsin on 25.10.1962, the submarine Commodore Vasily A Archipov during the Cuban Missile Crisis on 27.10.
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