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Resilience of Large River Basins: Applying Social-Ecological Systems Theory, Conflict Management, and Collaboration on the Mekong and Columbia Basins

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Resilience of Large River Basins: Applying Social-Ecological Systems Theory, Conflict Management, and Collaboration on the Mekong and Columbia Basins AN ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION OF Patrick R. MacQuarrie for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Geography presented on July 11, 2012. Title: Resilience of Large River Basins: Applying Social-Ecological Systems Theory, Conflict Management, and Collaboration on the Mekong and Columbia Basins Abstract Approved: Aaron T. Wolf River basins provide essential services for both humans and ecosystems. Understanding the connections between ecosystems and society and their function has been at the heart of resilience studies and has become an increasing important endeavor in research and practice. In this dissertation, I define basin resilience as a river basin system’s capacity to absorb, manage, and adapt to biophysical, social-economic, and political changes (or stressors) while still maintaining its essential structure, feedbacks, and functional integrity. I address the question of resilience, scale, and development in the Mekong and Columbia River Basins. This dissertation answers the following questions: 1) is systems theory an appropriate model to evaluate basin resilience, 2) is the Mekong Basin resilient, 3) are the Mekong and Columbia River Basins resilient across multiple scales, 4) can conflict management and collaborative learning enhance resilience, 5) can a resilience framework be used for basin comparisons, and 6) what lessons can the Mekong basin take from rapid development in the Columbia basin? In Chapter 2, I create and apply a social-ecological systems (SES) model of the Mekong River Basin to assess resilience at sub-basin (provincial), watershed (national), and basin (regional) scales. Feedbacks, thresholds, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity are determined and used as inputs into an overall basin resilience assessment. Drawing upon field work done in the Mekong Basin, Chapter 3 uses Conflict Management and Collaborative Learning processes to address resilience weaknesses across multiple scales in the Mekong Basin. Chapter 4 uses the basin resilience framework to compare the Mekong and Columbia Basins against physical characteristics, development rate, conflict and cooperation, and institutional responses to development projects. In this dissertation I find the Mekong has medium-low basin resilience and that scale is a critical determinant in basin resilience assessments. I find that in this study, vulnerability is inversely proportional to resilience, and low resilience at one scale, for example fisheries in the Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia, decreases resilience for the entire basin. I find that Cambodia and Lao PDR are the least resilience and Thailand the most resilient countries in the Mekong Basin – Thailand more resilient in some sectors than the Mekong River Commission (MRC). I find that the MRC’s conflict management strategy is hampered by a restrictive mandate and weakness in capacity building at tributary and national scales but that Collaborative Learning processes are effective in enhancing resilience at the sub-basin scale. Finally, I demonstrate through the basin comparison that the Mekong has a highly resilient biophysical system and traditionally a resilient institutional system however, the proposed rate of development is unsustainable with trends indicating a significant erosion of resilience. I find the Columbia Basin lacking resilience in fishing, hydropower, and water quality – sectors mitigating the effects of development in the Columbia Basin, manifesting as overall negative trends in cooperation. However, the Columbia shows signs of increasing cooperation due recent inclusion of Tribal Nations in water management. Flexible and inclusive institutional responses to water resource development challenges, in the Mekong to rapid development on the mainstream and in the Columbia to negotiations over renewal of the Columbia River Treaty, are key determinants to whether or not each basin can halt the current negative trends and strengthen basin resilience to face the challenges now and those coming in the future. © Copyright by Patrick R. MacQuarrie July 11, 2012 All Rights Reserved Resilience of Large River Basins: Applying Social-Ecological Systems Theory, Conflict Management, and Collaboration on the Mekong and Columbia Basins by Patrick R. MacQuarrie A DISSERTATION submitted to Oregon State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Presented July 11, 2012 Commencement June 2013 Doctor of Philosophy dissertation of Patrick R. MacQuarrie presented on July 11, 2012. APPROVED: Major Professor, representing Geography Chair of the Department of Geosciences Dean of the Graduate School I understand that my dissertation will become part of the permanent collection of Oregon State University libraries. My signature below authorizes release of my dissertation to any reader upon request. Patrick R. MacQuarrie, Author ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This PhD was enabled and supported by a host of amazing and dedicated people. I wish to thank my PhD committee: Dr. Aaron Wolf, Dr. Gregg Walker, Dr. Michael Campana, and Dr. Brent Steel for their support and advisement. In particular, I would like to thank Dr. Aaron Wolf for his direction, financial support, and advise particularly during difficult periods of completing this work. His comments were always meaningful, constructive, and always added quality and depth to my work. His endless patience with sometimes meandering deadlines is greatly appreciated. I thank Dr. Gregg Walker for his inspiration for systems thinking and theory, his enthusiasm for applying Collaborative Learning to the Mekong Basin, and for our endless and fruitful discussions in the basement of Shephard Hall. I thank Dr. Michael Campana for his willingness to step in and give crucial direction on water resources development and security issues. I thank Dr. Brent Steel on his important perspectives on political theory and comparative analysis and for his support and enthusiasm on the Mekong-Columbia comparison paper. I would also like to thank Dr. Keith Muckleston for his priceless advice on the Columbia River Treaty and institutions and for his support on the Mekong-Columbia comparison piece. A great deal of appreciation goes to Dr. Todd Jarvis for his adjunct committee status, professional advice, friendship, and for our frank conversations on how to make it to the finish line. Other professors in the Department of Geosciences (now College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences) that contributed greatly to the completion of my PhD were Dr. Julia Jones, who advised and facilitated my PhD program, Dr. Dawn Wright who gave continuous encouragement and extraordinary access to GIS resources during my research, Dr. Jon Kimberling who enabled financial support as Interim Chair of Geosciences, and Lynette de Silva who directed, coordinated, and supported my work as Graduate Research Assistant on the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database (TFDD). Special thanks go to the Geosciences staff, Melinda Jensen and Stacey Schulte, who assisting in scheduling meetings, booking rooms, getting access, and making things happen that no one else could. Many thanks are also given to a number of graduate students; to Biniam Iyob’s warm advice, time, and friendship which was so important as a friend and colleague, to Nate Eidam who gave timely advice on research design; to Yoshiko Sano, Cynthia Maharani, and Gladys Boransing, and to Jiayin Lao for their incredible moral support when the pile was getting too much to handle; and a huge thanks goes to Ana Lu Fonseca and Valeria Gabriela for their timely and enthusiastic advice on foreign language translation and for their excellent friendship. Thanks also goes to Celeste Frazier Barthel for her solidarity in Irishness, to Michelle Fitcher Lizon for her warm comments on the proposal and “Big Sky” friendship; and to Elina Lin, Paris Edwards, Amy McNally, Olivia Odom, James Duncan, and Kendra Hatcher for their support and expert work on TFDD particularly in dealing with my crazy schedules. I am also very grateful to Lucia De Stefano whose advice on water policy was insightful and helpful to my research approach. In the Mekong I am particularly indebted to Dr. Vitoon Viriyasakultorn who hosted and helped direct my research while in the Mekong Basin, and to Suparerk Janprasart at the MRC whose frank and direct perspectives, access to GIS and social data, and insightful vulnerability framework was an enormous inspiration to my research. Enormous thanks goes to Ton Lennaerts and Ms. Pham Thang Hang for hosting me at the Mekong River Commission (MRC), Dr. Pornsook Chongprasith for supporting Collaborative Learning at the Environment Programme, Dr. Jermey Bird for supporting my Internship appointment at the MRC, Ken Moua from EP for his help with hotspots, Ms. Worawan Sukrarock from EP for her expertise on Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA) and Transboundary Environmental Impact Assessments (TbEIA) and her expert advice on where to find the tastiest and most scenic viewpoints on the Mekong Thanks also go to Ms. Berengere Prince, Rachel Cooper, and Mekong BDP staff Somchit Luangkhot and Chitthina Misaiphon for their critical administrative support and generous fresh fish shared lunches from the Mekong! I wish also to thanks Paul Violette at Eco-Asia (USAID) who supported and funded the Collaborative Decision-making project in the Mekong Basin, and Watcharee Limanon at Eco-Asia who organized flights and stipends. On the Columbia River Basin, big thanks goes to Dr. Jerry Delli Pricsoli who supported my involvement with
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