black sea and caspian sea symposium — 2006 NDIC PRESS PRESS — 2006 NDIC symposium sea caspian and sea black NATIONAL DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE COLLEGE black sea and caspian sea symposium 9 - 10 march 2006 PCN 6754 e Research nc e n g ii l ll ee tt nn I I cial policy of position of the c c i i g g e e Washington, DC Washington, t NDIC PRESS t a ect the offi a 9-10 March 2006 r Symposium r t t S S r o f r e t n e C r o f r e t n e C respective Governments participants’ National Defense Intelligence College and do not refl The views expressed in these remarks are those of the participants Black Sea and Caspian Sea CONTENTS Day 1: Framing the Issues Welcoming Addresses President A. Denis Clift, NDIC . 1 LTG Michael D. Maples, USA, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency . .2 General (Retired) Sergiu T. Medar, Senior Advisor to the Romanian President, National Security Department . 5 Keynote Address: U.S. European Command Initiatives to Promote Regional Cooperation Gen Charles F. Wald, USAF, Deputy Commander, U.S. European Command . 24 Overview of the Black Sea/Caspian Sea Region Dr. Jeffrey Simon, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University . 39 U.S. Policy and Interests in the Region Ambassador Richard D. Kauzlarich, National Intelligence Offi cer for Europe . 56 Department of Defense Interests and Initiatives in the Region James C. MacDougall, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Eurasia . 75 Security Situation in the Black Sea Major General Mehmet Eroz, Turkish General Staff . 88 Day 2: Strategies for Cooperation Current Intelligence Briefi ng: Security Threats to the Region Joint Intelligence Analysis Offi ce, Directorate for Analysis, Defense Intelligence Agency . 112 Theater Perspective on Security Threats and Allied Cooperation BG John M. Custer, USA, J2, U.S. Central Command . 121 BG Brian A. Keller, USA, J2, U.S. European Command . 122 RADM Robert M. Clark, USN, Director of Maritime Partnership Program, Commander, Naval Forces Europe/Sixth Fleet . 128 Energy Development and the Future of the Region Ms. Kate Hardin, Director, Caspian Energy, Cambridge Energy Research Associates . 142 Regional Security Issues and Concepts for Cooperation Counter-Narcotics, DIA . 160 Terrorism, JITF-CT . 165 iii Illegal Traffi cking, Anna Stinchcomb, Department of State . 170 Methods of Cooperation, Dr. Jennifer Moroney, RAND Corp. 174 Issues Discussed and the Way Ahead Richard Giragosian. 186 Closing Remarks President A. Denis Clift, NDIC . 194 LTG Michael D. Maples, USA, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency. 196 Biographics of Speakers . 201 iv Black Sea and Caspian Sea Symposium Participants First Row (Left to Right): Major General Orlin Marintchev, Bulgaria; Rear Admiral Robert Clark, USN; Mr. David Soumbadze, Georgia; Major General Plamen Stoudenkov, Bulgaria; General Medar, Romania; Lieutenant General Maples, USA, Lieutenant Colonel Dilchod Issoqov, Tajikistan; Major General Mehmet Eroz, Turkey; Colonel Rahim Jafarov, Azerbaijan; Mr. Bakhtier Ibragimov, Uzbekistan Second Row (Left to Right): Mr. Denis Clift, USA; Colonel Valeriu Delighioz, Moldova; Major Corneliu Cojocaru, Moldova; Brigadier General Brian Keller, USA; Major General Basentsi Azoyan, Armenia; Mr. Oleksandr Halaka, Ukraine; Colonel Geldi Annaberdiyev, Turkmenistan; Brigadier General Gheorghe Savu, Romania; Captain Aleksandr Kustov, Russian Federation; Ambassador Richard Kauzlarich, USA v BLACK SEA AND CASPIAN SEA SYMPOSIUM Thursday, 9 March 2006 WELCOMING ADDRESSES A. Denis Clift, President, National Defense Intelligence College What a great pleasure it is to welcome you to this Symposium on Black Sea and Caspian Security Issues. As you will see from the speakers’ agenda and the list of participants in your Conference papers, this is a most distinguished and highly knowledgeable gathering. We have participants from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and the United States. Good communications, the fullest possible exchange of information, critical thinking, and informed debate are central to the education and research programs at the Joint Military Intelligence College. And they are central to the goals that we are setting for this symposium. Through the College’s Center for External and International Programs, we are fostering an expanding dialogue with friends, colleagues, and experts around the world. We do so with the clear understanding that together we can learn and impart knowledge far more effectively than we can working alone. This Symposium contributes greatly to such a dialogue. I would add that, in shaping the program for today and tomorrow, we have drawn on lessons learned from the College’s Senior International Intelligence Fellow’s Program, which brings general- and fl ag-level offi cers together at the College for a three-week seminar each year. This past year, we had generals, admirals, and their civilian equivalents from sub-Saharan Africa. This year they will be coming from Central and South America. In past years, our seminars have included participants from Europe and from Asia. In these seminars, few of the International Fellows have known each other prior to coming together at the College. However, many have formed professional and personal bonds and, through the benefi ts of e-mail and networking, they now stay in close touch. In their work, the International Fellows have agreed that by combining strengths they are burden- sharing; they are playing their best cards. They are contributing what each knows best and what each does best. They have agreed that what they do is part of a larger international effort, that intelligence relationships can open doors to ties that pay far larger dividends. Such relationships, in the words of one of the Fellows, are the work of “silent diplomacy.” Thus, I welcome you. We look forward to learning with you, to gaining and sharing knowledge on issues of importance in the Black and Caspian 1 Sea Region. It is now my distinct pleasure to introduce this morning’s fi rst speaker, the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency and U.S. Co-chairman of the symposium, LTG Michael D. Maples. General Maples. LTG Michael D. Maples, USA, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Good morning! I had the opportunity to walk around just before the meeting began and had the opportunity to speak with several of you. I understand that a number here in the room fl ew in late yesterday and got in late last night. We still may be adjusting to the time schedule here, and I understand that. But what I just heard the President of the College talk about was the opportunity that we have to have discussions and to share knowledge, one with another. And for that I need for you to be a part of this program, because the benefi t of having this seminar is the opportunity for us, collectively, to listen, to understand, to discuss, and to share knowledge and ideas. And for that purpose, when we have the opportunity for discussion, it’s important that we get the ideas out, that we discuss concerns, and that we have opportunity for discussion, exchange of information, critical thinking, and really debate among all of those who are present here. So, Denis, thank you. Thank you for your introduction and thank you for arranging, in conjunction with Brad Knopp, to bring this group together to discuss a very, very important region of the world and to discuss the issues that are associated with the region. And it’s really an honor for the Defense Intelligence Agency to have the opportunity to host this event. Many of you may have come in through the old part of the Defense Intelligence Agency’s building. Some of you may have seen on the other side here that there’s a whole new building and that we’re growing. In fact, we’re in the fi rst part of that construction, but we’ve got a new building that’s going up right behind us right now that very shortly is going to be occupied. It will be ready for us soon and we’ll be able to move more of our agency into the building. So, if you’d look through LTG Maples welcomes attendees during the opening session of the conference. 2 the doors on the far side when you go out for coffee, we’re not tearing down, we’re building up. This conference came together as a result of a discussion that occurred about a year ago, I think, between my predecessor, ADM Jacoby, Mr. Brad Knopp and Gen Medar. They discussed that there were a number of emerging issues related to the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea area, that those issues were of signifi cance to everyone on a regional basis, and important to all of us who are gathered here. After that discussion, a follow-on discussion occurred with Gen Wald at the European Command. Gen Wald reiterated the idea that mutual interest and mutual discussion in these areas of concern, would benefi t all of us. So, the underlying bases and the genesis for having this conference actually came about as a suggestion from one of those currently present with us, Gen Medar, and Gen Wald, who will join us shortly. These two men really generated the idea and the concept and gave us the opportunity to build this conference and to bring everyone together so that we could have the opportunity to discuss these issues. You know as the Cold War came to an end, there were numerous security challenges that were created for the United States. And there were numerous transnational and geopolitical challenges that also developed for all of us who are here today— unresolved territorial disputes, terrorism, religious extremism, weapons proliferation, narcotics traffi cking, organized crime, illegal immigration and human traffi cking, and the competition for resources.