Public Affairs Government Research Bureau • University of South Dakota • Vermillion, SD 57069-2390 No. 106 December, 1996 Something for Everyone: The 1996 Election in South Dakota Alan L. Clem After a brutally long campaign that scaled back his advertising budget in the state, featured massive spending and negative and Gramm had already bowed out of the race. advertising, both Democrats and Republicans Dole, Buchanan, and Keyes all made appearances could find something to cheer about and in the last week of the primary. something to groan about. As expected, Dole, who had run well in Democrats could rejoice in the reelection the state's 1988 primary and who was supported of President Bill Clinton, the narrow victory of by Senator Pressler and Governor Bill Janklow, Tim Johnson over three-term Senator Larry won the primary with 45 percent of the total Pressler, and Pam Nelson's election to the Public vote, outdistancing Buchanan, his closest Utilities Commission. competitor, by more than ten thousand votes. Republicans could chortle over their Buchanan's vote exceeded Dole's only in retention of both chambers of Congress, the solid Campbell, Corson, Deuel, and Douglas counties. victory of John Thune to replace Johnson in the Buchanan won just 29 percent of the primary U.S. House of Representatives, and enlarged vote, but seven out of the 18 delegates to the majorities in both chambers of the state Republican national convention in San Diego legislature. were pledged to him. And everyone expressed relief that the With Pressler and Johnson assured of campaigning was over — at least until 1998. their Senate nominations, the traditional June 4 primary featured contests in both parties to The Primaries succeed to the state's lone seat in the U.S. House With no Democratic opposition to of Representatives. President Clinton's renomination, South Dakota's There were four Democratic candidates, presidential primary in late February involved Rick Weiland, a long-time aide to Senator Tom only the Republican rivals, Senator Bob Dole of Daschle; former state legislator and 1994 Kansas, Senator Phil Gramm of Texas, former lieutenant governor nominee Jim Abbott; former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, Pat state legislator Linda Stensland; and Dennis Buchanan, Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, Morry Jones, a farmer. The most publicized bone of Taylor, and an uncommitted slate. contention in the Democratic contest was the late As usual, the national media devoted far charge by Weiland that Abbott had received more attention to the Iowa caucuses and the New contributions from Republicans and had Hampshire primary than to South Dakota. contributed money to the South Dakota Forbes had already suffered setbacks and he Republican party. Abbott countered that Daschle and Johnson had also received contributions from - Libertarian Harry Browne and three Republicans and that his contributions were to independents, Ross Perot of the Reform party, support the governor's hunt and other South John Hagelin of the Natural Law party, and Dakota "showcase" events.(1) Howard Phillips of the U.S. Taxpayers party. Weiland won the primary with 42 percent Dole's victory on November 5 made of the vote, representing a margin of nearly six presidential electors of Governor Janklow, thousand votes, but many Democrats felt Republican Chairman Joel Rosenthal of Canton, offended by the attacks on Abbott. Abbott won and Carole Boos of Milbank, who had been in 17 counties, most importantly four counties chosen at the Republican state convention in along the Missouri river in the southeast corner June. Dole received 46 percent of the vote, of the state, and Jones carried eight, most of Clinton 43 percent, and Perot ten percent. them in the northeast. Weiland won the Considering only the major-party vote, Dole in remaining counties. 1996 did as well as President George Bush had in On the Republican side, Lieutenant 1992, both receiving 52 percent. But Dole's 46 Governor Carole Hillard was opposed by John percent of the total vote compared favorably with Thune, former aide to Senator Jim Abdnor and Bush's 41 percent four years earlier when Perot executive director of the state municipal league. had garnered 22 percent of the South Dakota Thune took 60 percent of the primary vote, vote. The votes that Perot failed to keep in 1996 running up his largest margins in Minnehaha, divided evenly between the Democratic and Hughes, Brookings, Hutchinson, Lincoln, and Republican tickets, both of which received six Meade counties. Hillard won in eleven counties percentage points more than they had in 1992. but carried her home county, Pennington, by East of the Missouri river, Dole won 24 only three hundred votes. Thune's decisive counties, Clinton 20. To the west, Dole carried victory augured well for the general election. 17 counties to Clinton's five. Dole carried Pennington county by well over six thousand The Race for 3 Electoral Votes votes, and also had margins of more than eight The presidential campaign in South hundred each in Meade, Hughes, Hutchinson, Dakota was a modest reflection of the national Lawrence, and Butte counties. Clinton ran up his race. The major personalities — Republican vice- largest margin, over two thousand, in Minnehaha presidential candidate Jack Kemp with his family county; otherwise, his largest margins came in ties to Watertown, Bob Dole and his dynamic Shannon, Brown, Clay, and Todd counties. wife Elizabeth, Bill Clinton and his dynamic wife Perot received his highest percentages in Corson, Hillary, and Vice-President Al Gore and his wife Butte, Campbell, and Lawrence counties, and did Tipper ~ all put in South Dakota appearances. In not do as well in Minnehaha or Pennington fact, Dole and his wife appeared at a Sioux Falls counties as he did in the state as a whole. rally the Saturday night before election day, and Clinton's last significant campaign stop was in The Senate Race Sioux Falls on election eve. The Senate contest was really the Democratic ads bashed Dole and other dominant contest in South Dakota, and it was one Republicans in Congress for failing to support of the most closely watched in the entire nation "education, the environment, Medicare, and as observers speculated about its impact on party Medicaid," an oft-repeated litany, and control of the closely divided Senate. The close Republican messages responded by criticizing Senate race no doubt influenced the decisions by "big government," foreign campaign Dole and Clinton to return to the state at the end contributions to the Democratic party, and the of the campaign. Ironically, even though the president's character. All in all, it was not a Democrats won this race, the Republican party pretty sight. nationally took three seats from the Democrats Besides the major party nominees, four (in Alabama, Arkansas, and Nebraska) to other tickets appeared on the South Dakota ballot increase their Senate majority to 55-45. This contest got underway in earnest in Both candidates threw money away at the end of the spring of 1995 when five-term Congressman the campaign, long after their advertising had Tim Johnson confirmed his plan to challenge for reached the point of diminishing returns.(6) The the seat Pressler had held for three terms.(2) It issue of campaign spending was used to some was clear from the beginning that the race would effect by Johnson; he charged Pressler with attract a lot of media attention and money. traveling first-class and using limousines, themes Congressional Quarterly from the first called this which seemed to resonate with populist South a highly vulnerable Republican seat, in part Dakotans. because of Johnson's large victory margins in Toward the end of the campaign Pressler five previous statewide races and in part because received two endorsements, from Governor of Democrat Ted Muenster's strong showing Janklow and the editorial board of the Sioux Falls against Pressler in 1990. In its last pre-election Argus-Leader, which had many observers assessment, Congressional Quarterly placed the scratching their heads but did not reverse the South Dakota race (as well as those in Oregon outcome. and Colorado) in the "no clear favorite" In an early 1996 poll, Johnson was category. (3) shown to be in the lead by ten percentage Pressler's bid was helped by new national points,(7) and an October 24-27 poll sponsored prominence gained in shepherding the massive by KELO, a Sioux Falls television station, also telecommunications reform bill through the showed Johnson with a ten percentage point lead. Senate, which countered an image of South Dakota polls were poor predictors of the ineffectiveness and unconnectedness that vote in 1996, as was the case with most national Democrats had steadily promoted.(4) polls, producing results outside the generally Pressler may also have been helped by accepted margins of error. Telephone surveys the negative spin Johnson received when and exit polls alike are suffering because of a Alexander Cockburn, a Washington journalist growing disinclination of individuals to become whose book "Washington Babylon" had respondents, a situation which produces bias in denigrated Pressler, spoke in Sioux Falls and the sample. Experts such as Everett Carll Ladd Vermillion. The appearances were said to have of the University of Connecticut have attributed been arranged by former Senator Jim Abourezk, this in part to general irritation with telephone and although Johnson protested that he had marketing and in part to a relatively high played no role in bringing Cockburn to the state, tendency among Republican to distrust polling several press reports indicated that the flap may methods as well as the motives of the media in have hurt him more than the intended victim.(5) reporting poll results. Pressler's advertising, buttressed by The actual vote was much closer.