Public Affairs

Government Research Bureau • University of • Vermillion, SD 57069-2390

No. 106 December, 1996

Something for Everyone: The 1996 Election in South Dakota

Alan L. Clem

After a brutally long campaign that scaled back his advertising budget in the state, featured massive spending and negative and Gramm had already bowed out of the race. advertising, both Democrats and Republicans Dole, Buchanan, and Keyes all made appearances could find something to cheer about and in the last week of the primary. something to groan about. As expected, Dole, who had run well in Democrats could rejoice in the reelection the state's 1988 primary and who was supported of President , the narrow victory of by Senator Pressler and Governor , Tim Johnson over three-term Senator Larry won the primary with 45 percent of the total Pressler, and Pam Nelson's election to the Public vote, outdistancing Buchanan, his closest Utilities Commission. competitor, by more than ten thousand votes. Republicans could chortle over their Buchanan's vote exceeded Dole's only in retention of both chambers of Congress, the solid Campbell, Corson, Deuel, and Douglas counties. victory of to replace Johnson in the Buchanan won just 29 percent of the primary U.S. House of Representatives, and enlarged vote, but seven out of the 18 delegates to the majorities in both chambers of the state Republican national convention in San Diego legislature. were pledged to him. And everyone expressed relief that the With Pressler and Johnson assured of campaigning was over — at least until 1998. their Senate nominations, the traditional June 4 primary featured contests in both parties to The Primaries succeed to the state's lone seat in the U.S. House With no Democratic opposition to of Representatives. President Clinton's renomination, South Dakota's There were four Democratic candidates, presidential primary in late February involved , a long-time aide to Senator Tom only the Republican rivals, Senator Bob Dole of Daschle; former state legislator and 1994 Kansas, Senator Phil Gramm of Texas, former lieutenant governor nominee Jim Abbott; former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, Pat state legislator Linda Stensland; and Dennis Buchanan, Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, Morry Jones, a farmer. The most publicized bone of Taylor, and an uncommitted slate. contention in the Democratic contest was the late As usual, the national media devoted far charge by Weiland that Abbott had received more attention to the Iowa caucuses and the New contributions from Republicans and had Hampshire primary than to South Dakota. contributed money to the South Dakota Forbes had already suffered setbacks and he Republican party. Abbott countered that Daschle and Johnson had also received contributions from - Libertarian Harry Browne and three Republicans and that his contributions were to independents, Ross Perot of the Reform party, support the governor's hunt and other South John Hagelin of the Natural Law party, and Dakota "showcase" events.(1) Howard Phillips of the U.S. Taxpayers party. Weiland won the primary with 42 percent Dole's victory on November 5 made of the vote, representing a margin of nearly six presidential electors of Governor Janklow, thousand votes, but many Democrats felt Republican Chairman Joel Rosenthal of Canton, offended by the attacks on Abbott. Abbott won and Carole Boos of Milbank, who had been in 17 counties, most importantly four counties chosen at the Republican state convention in along the Missouri river in the southeast corner June. Dole received 46 percent of the vote, of the state, and Jones carried eight, most of Clinton 43 percent, and Perot ten percent. them in the northeast. Weiland won the Considering only the major-party vote, Dole in remaining counties. 1996 did as well as President George Bush had in On the Republican side, Lieutenant 1992, both receiving 52 percent. But Dole's 46 Governor was opposed by John percent of the total vote compared favorably with Thune, former aide to Senator Jim Abdnor and Bush's 41 percent four years earlier when Perot executive director of the state municipal league. had garnered 22 percent of the South Dakota Thune took 60 percent of the primary vote, vote. The votes that Perot failed to keep in 1996 running up his largest margins in Minnehaha, divided evenly between the Democratic and Hughes, Brookings, Hutchinson, Lincoln, and Republican tickets, both of which received six Meade counties. Hillard won in eleven counties percentage points more than they had in 1992. but carried her home county, Pennington, by East of the Missouri river, Dole won 24 only three hundred votes. Thune's decisive counties, Clinton 20. To the west, Dole carried victory augured well for the general election. 17 counties to Clinton's five. Dole carried Pennington county by well over six thousand The Race for 3 Electoral Votes votes, and also had margins of more than eight The presidential campaign in South hundred each in Meade, Hughes, Hutchinson, Dakota was a modest reflection of the national Lawrence, and Butte counties. Clinton ran up his race. The major personalities — Republican vice- largest margin, over two thousand, in Minnehaha presidential candidate Jack Kemp with his family county; otherwise, his largest margins came in ties to Watertown, Bob Dole and his dynamic Shannon, Brown, Clay, and Todd counties. wife Elizabeth, Bill Clinton and his dynamic wife Perot received his highest percentages in Corson, Hillary, and Vice-President Al Gore and his wife Butte, Campbell, and Lawrence counties, and did Tipper ~ all put in South Dakota appearances. In not do as well in Minnehaha or Pennington fact, Dole and his wife appeared at a Sioux Falls counties as he did in the state as a whole. rally the Saturday night before election day, and Clinton's last significant campaign stop was in The Senate Race Sioux Falls on election eve. The Senate contest was really the Democratic ads bashed Dole and other dominant contest in South Dakota, and it was one Republicans in Congress for failing to support of the most closely watched in the entire nation "education, the environment, Medicare, and as observers speculated about its impact on party Medicaid," an oft-repeated litany, and control of the closely divided Senate. The close Republican messages responded by criticizing Senate race no doubt influenced the decisions by "big government," foreign campaign Dole and Clinton to return to the state at the end contributions to the Democratic party, and the of the campaign. Ironically, even though the president's character. All in all, it was not a Democrats won this race, the Republican party pretty sight. nationally took three seats from the Democrats Besides the major party nominees, four (in Alabama, Arkansas, and Nebraska) to other tickets appeared on the South Dakota ballot increase their Senate majority to 55-45. This contest got underway in earnest in Both candidates threw money away at the end of the spring of 1995 when five-term Congressman the campaign, long after their advertising had Tim Johnson confirmed his plan to challenge for reached the point of diminishing returns.(6) The the seat Pressler had held for three terms.(2) It issue of campaign spending was used to some was clear from the beginning that the race would effect by Johnson; he charged Pressler with attract a lot of media attention and money. traveling first-class and using limousines, themes Congressional Quarterly from the first called this which seemed to resonate with populist South a highly vulnerable Republican seat, in part Dakotans. because of Johnson's large victory margins in Toward the end of the campaign Pressler five previous statewide races and in part because received two endorsements, from Governor of Democrat Ted Muenster's strong showing Janklow and the editorial board of the Sioux Falls against Pressler in 1990. In its last pre-election Argus-Leader, which had many observers assessment, Congressional Quarterly placed the scratching their heads but did not reverse the South Dakota race (as well as those in Oregon outcome. and ) in the "no clear favorite" In an early 1996 poll, Johnson was category. (3) shown to be in the lead by ten percentage Pressler's bid was helped by new national points,(7) and an October 24-27 poll sponsored prominence gained in shepherding the massive by KELO, a Sioux Falls television station, also telecommunications reform bill through the showed Johnson with a ten percentage point lead. Senate, which countered an image of South Dakota polls were poor predictors of the ineffectiveness and unconnectedness that vote in 1996, as was the case with most national Democrats had steadily promoted.(4) polls, producing results outside the generally Pressler may also have been helped by accepted margins of error. Telephone surveys the negative spin Johnson received when and exit polls alike are suffering because of a Alexander Cockburn, a Washington journalist growing disinclination of individuals to become whose book "Washington Babylon" had respondents, a situation which produces bias in denigrated Pressler, spoke in Sioux Falls and the sample. Experts such as Everett Carll Ladd Vermillion. The appearances were said to have of the University of Connecticut have attributed been arranged by former Senator Jim Abourezk, this in part to general irritation with telephone and although Johnson protested that he had marketing and in part to a relatively high played no role in bringing Cockburn to the state, tendency among Republican to distrust polling several press reports indicated that the flap may methods as well as the motives of the media in have hurt him more than the intended victim.(5) reporting poll results. Pressler's advertising, buttressed by The actual vote was much closer. generic attacks on Johnson from the national Johnson carried 34 of 44 East River counties, Republican party, for eighteen months stressed while Pressler carried 16 of 22 West River the theme that Johnson had been "too liberal, too counties, continuing recent regional voting often" to merit South Dakota's support. Johnson trends. Johnson's largest vote margins came in responded by describing himself as a moderate, Minnehaha (over five thousand votes), Brown, and roll-call records could be used to justify Clay, Shannon, Brookings, Beadle, and Todd either claim; he voted on the liberal side more counties. Pressler's biggest margins were won in often than on the conservative side, but within his Pennington (over seven thousand votes), Meade, party he was by no means among the most liberal Lawrence, and Butte counties. voters, according to Congressional Quarterly An exit poll conducted by the nation­ analysis, or part of the "eastern liberal wide Voter News Service concluded that establishment." Pressler's defeat could be attributed to his Pressler raised and spent more money inability to hold all conservative voters and on than Johnson did, but the Democrat certainly slippage among older voters; as a consequence of spent enough money to get his message across. the unwarranted Medicare scare tactics used against many Republican candidates across the unopposed in the general election, 21 received nation, Johnson won the majority of votes from over two thousand votes more than their those 60 years of age or older.(8) opponent, 39 others had winning margins exceeding one thousand, 15 had winning margins The Congressional Race over five hundred, 11 had margins of more than The Republican party will hold a South one hundred, and five won with margins of less Dakota House seat in the 105st Congress for the than one hundred votes. first time since 1982, when the state lost its The number of women in the legislature second seat because of reapportionment; in that dropped from 20 in 1995-6 to 17 in 1997-8. election, emerged victorious in a Voters decided three ballot contests. close battle with the other incumbent, Clint They approved a constitutional amendment to Roberts. allow the permanent school fund to be invested In the four-way congressional race, by the state investment officer rather than by the Thune won 58 percent of the vote, Weiland 37 elected commissioner of school and public lands. percent, Stacey Nelson three percent, and Kurt This change is expected to bring in much higher Evans two percent. Considering only the major fund earnings. By a larger margin, voters party vote, Thune won 61 percent to 39 percent. approved a constitutional amendment to require The House contest was overshadowed by that new taxes receive approval by two-thirds of the attention given to the presidential and the legislators, a change which will severely senatorial races. Thune emphasized traditional restrict the state's revenue potential. Many conservative themes and endorsed the House influentials had opposed this because it gives a Republicans' "Contract with America." minority veto control over taxation policy. Weiland, who received much of his funding from Voters also approved an initiated law that will labor interests, opposed Republican plans to require candidates for office to publicly state reduce federal spending on education and their position on the term limits issue. Voters in Medicare. (9) eight other states also approved similar Thune carried 60 of the state's 66 proposals, but in four states term limits counties. He outpolled Weiland by more than compliance laws were rejected by voters. eleven thousand votes in Pennington and by more than nine thousand votes in Minnehaha county. Relationships in the Vote His margins exceeded one thousand votes each in Comparing voting percentages in the Beadle, Brookings, Brown, Butte, Codington, major races from the 66 counties allows some Custer, Davison, Hughes, Hutchinson, general conclusions to be made about the strength Lawrence, Lincoln, Meade, Turner, and Yankton of relationships among the various candidates and counties. Weiland carried only Buffalo, Clay, issues. This process involves ranking the Dewey, Lake, Shannon, and Todd counties. counties in order of support in each race, constructing a series of cross-tabulations for State Races several pairs of races, and calculating the gamma As noted earlier, Democrat Pam Nelson statistic to express the direction and degree of won the PUC race, defeating Republican Roy relationship. Letellier, and Republicans slightly strengthened As to the senatorial and congressional their hold on both chambers of the state races (Johnson versus Pressler and Thune versus legislature. In the 1997-8 legislature, Weiland), there was an expected strong positive Republicans will control the Senate 22-13 and the relationship between the candidates of the same House 49-21 (based on the status of recounts as party (gamma +.88, where +1.0 would indicate of early December). a perfect relationship). In other words, in The winning margins in most of the counties where the Democratic senatorial legislative contests were quite large. Fourteen of candidate received his best percentages, so did the members of the new legislature were the Democratic congressional candidate. The Thune performance was compared Thune? with support for the constitutional amendment to Speculation will soon turn to the require a two-thirds vote on tax measures in the presidential tickets of the year 2000. Will Vice- state legislature, showing a moderately strong President Al Gore inherit the Democratic mantle positive relationship (gamma +.57; if there had without opposition in the party? By reason of his been no relationship between the Thune and tax vice-presidential nomination of 1996, does Jack orders, the score would have been .00). Limiting Kemp have a leg up on the next Republican taxes is consistent with support for the presidential nomination? What role will be Republican ticket. played by Colin Powell, Elizabeth Dole, and The same pattern holds, though at a prominent Republican governors and members of somewhat lower level, when Thune support was Congress? Will any of the minor party efforts compared with support for the initiated term- assume major proportions as the Twentieth limits measure (gamma +.48). Century comes to an end? And, as always, how will the names on the presidential tickets affect Looking Ahead Democratic and Republican candidates in South South Dakota will lose considerable Dakota? seniority in both chambers of Congress as a consequence of Pressler's defeat and Johnson's Footnotes transfer to the Senate. Johnson and Thune will 1. "South Dakota Democrats feud over start at the bottom of the Senate Democratic and GOP contributions," Associated Press dispatch in House Republican seniority ladders, and may Sioux Falls Argus-Leader, June 1, 1996. have to wait a few years to win top-preference 2. David Kranz, "Johnson builds war committee assignments. Two Democrats will be chest for Senate run," Sioux Falls Argus-Leader, looking after the state's interests in the Senate. April 4, 1995. Thune may be in a better position than Johnson 3. Congressional Quarterly Weekly had been to defend the state with Republicans in Report, October 19, 1996, p. 2955. control in the House. 4. Joe Healey, "Pressler Stumbles, Gets Senator Daschle as Democratic leader His Footing . . . and Wins High Praise from will be one of the most visible and important Colleagues," Congressional Quarterly Weekly members of Congress. With Democrats in Report, June 17, 1995, pp. 1728-9; and Jeffrey control of the White House but in a minority in Birnbaum, "The Man on the Line: Often derided the Senate, he will occupy what has been in the leads the Senate's effort to reshape past an uncomfortable position. He will need to the communications industry," Time, June 12, satisfy a president who is concerned about the 1995, pp. 42-3. legacy he will leave to posterity as well as 44 5. "Campaign on the low road: By Democratic colleagues who favor enlarged waiting to act after Alexander Cockburn's tour, federal programs that might return them to Tim Johnson accepted the benefit of unethical majority status. He will be a strong advocate, no campaign tactics," editorial in Rapid City doubt, for the state's parochial interests, but the Journal, September 26, 1996; and Paul Sloca, liberal positions he will be forced to champion "Johnson deplores attack on Pressler: may not sit comfortably with his South Dakota Congressman says he doesn't believe Abourezk's constituents. (10) allegation," Associated Press dispatch in Sioux Daschle's second Senate term will run Falls Argus-Leader, September 26, 1996. through 1998, and it will be interesting to see 6. For several weeks after the election, whether the Republicans can mount a more news reports reminded South Dakotans of the effective campaign against him than they did in huge spending level in the Senate race, as well as 1992. From the other side, will Democrats the particular uses to which some of the money provide serious challenges for the offices now was put. See, for instance, Chuck Raasch, held by Governor Janklow and Congressman "Johnson taps PACs to foot bill for 'win bonuses'," Sioux Falls Argus-Leader, November facing risks in battle over budget," Sioux Falls 24, 1996, pp. 1A, 3A; and Chuck Raasch, Argus-Leader, December 15, 1995; and "Sen. "Campaign price tags awe even political Tom Daschle," Congressional Quarterly Weekly consultants," Sioux Falls Argus-Leader, Report, May 4, 1996, p. 1209. Another article November 24, 1996, p. 3A. elaborated on this theme of the tension between 7. David Kranz, "Johnson poll shows 47- Daschle's liberal Democratic Senate colleagues 37% lead," Sioux Falls Argus-Leader, January and his conservative South Dakota constituents; 17, 1996. Desiree Hicks, Gannett News Service, "Daschle 8. Chet Brokaw, "Exit poll indicates faces challenge of pleasing state and Senate," Pressler message failed to sway conservative Sioux Falls Argus-Leader, December 4, 1996, p. voters," Associated Press dispatch in Sioux Falls 1A. Argus-Leader, November 11, 1996, p. 4D. 9. Congressional Quarterly Weekly Note: Official voting data supplied by Chris Report, June 29, 1996, p. 1849. Nelson, director of elections in the office of 10. Sean Somerville, "Daschle leads fight Secretary of State Joyce Hazeltine. Their against Contract," Sioux Falls Argus-Leader, cooperation is gratefully acknowledged. April 6, 1995; "What prompts rush to Daschle's aid?" editorial in Sioux Falls Argus-Leader, August 2, 1995; Sean Somerville, "Daschle

Table 1. Results of the Statewide Vote, 1996 General Election Contest Votes Percent President Clinton & Gore, Democrat 139,333 43.0% Dole & Kemp, Republican 150,543 46.5 Perot & Campbell, Independent 31,250 9.6 Browne & Jorgensen, Libertarian 1,472 0.4 Phillips & Knight, Independent 912 0.3 Hagelin & Tompkins, Independent 316 0.1 U.S. Senator Tim Johnson, Democrat 166,533 51.3 Larry Pressler, Republican 157,954 48.7 U.S. Representative Rick Weiland, Democrat 119,547 37.0 John Thune, Republican 186,393 57.7 Stacey Nelson, Independent 10,397 3.2 Kurt Evans, Independent 6,866 2.1 Public Utilities Commissioner Pam Nelson, Democrat 152,586 48.2 Roy Letellier, Republican 148,260 46.8 James Christen, Independent 15,852 5.0 Constitutional Amendment A (school funds investment) Yes 191,771 63.0 No 112,659 37.0 Constitutional Amendment B (two-thirds vote on taxes) Yes 229,580 74.3 No 79,493 25.7 Initiated Measure 1 (term limits) Yes 205,852 67.6 No 98,696 32.4 The 1996 Vote for President: Clinton (Democrat) versus Dole (Republican)

HADOlhC

22 32 tllMCM

37

1»»»INCE 37

45 _L_ PENNINGTON * 40

39

88 45

The 1996 Vote for U.S. Senator: Johnson (Democrat) versus Pressler (Republican)

In both maps, the numbers show the percentage of the major party vote received by the Democratic candidate. Votes for minor party candidates are eliminated from the calculation. Republican percentages are, of course, the complement of the Democratic percentages. The 12 most populous counties are marked with an asterisk. Together, these 12 counties cast over 60 percent of the statewide votes. fl OJSJ JIUU3J paisanba^j uorpano;} ssarppv as 'uomiu^A n aivd o6e^-69oz.s *i°y?a v °s iK*nTu»A aStqsoj sn 139US 31XB13 ISKg |7lt7 SJO ^OJJ-UON B105TBQ ipilOS OJ AJlSJ3AlUfl rreoing ipiBasa^ rBixrauraraAOQ 9H9