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HR Business As Unusual SFIA THOUGHT LEADERSHIP WEBINAR JUNE 30, 2020 Monitoring the Impact of COVID-19 and the Road to Recovery COVID-19 Featured Speaker:C O R O N O V I R U S Matt Powell Vice President & Senior Industry Advisor The NPD Group HR Business as Unusual Webinar Host: Alli Schulman Manager, Communications & Marketing SFIA 1 Document classification: NPD Internal Only The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidential Questions can be submitted to the GoToWebinar toolbar U.S. Sports Industry Recap January – May 2020 Copyright 2020. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This presentation is proprietary and confidential and may not be disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any third party without the express written consent of NPD. About Matt Powell Serves as Frequent Sports Industry 20 presentations 29 Advisor for Years as a Sport to senior executives Years in the Sporting Industry Analyst Goods industry The NPD Group of Athletic Retailers/Brands Often quoted as 46 industry expert in 22,000+ 31,000+ Years in Retail Industry major business LinkedIn Connections Twitter Followers One of the top 1% most Complex: publications viewed LinkedIn profiles “One of the top 15 most influential people in Sneaker Media” DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 3 STATE OF U.S. RETAIL STATE OF U.S. RETAIL DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential U.S. Retailers, prior to Covid, were trimming their doors; the pandemic has put many more on the chopping block # of U.S. Retail Door Closures 2000 - 2020 (est) Predictions are as high as 20,000 – 25,000 for 2020. 25,000 As of June 9th, 20,000 officially 20,000 announced 15,000 closures were 10,000 5,000 4,004 doors 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Company data, news articles, credit Suisse estimates; 2017 to present, Coresight Research, Buisiness Insider, Cushman Wakefield DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 5 All sectors suffered during March and April but once stores opened mid May, Team and FTW posted gains Weekly Dollar Sales % change YoY, 21 weeks ending May 30, 2020 Footwear Apparel Team Sports EQ 40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0 -40.0 -60.0 -80.0 Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 Source: The NPD Group/Retail Tracking Service DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 6 The “bright spot” in footwear has been DTC But in Covid-19 times, all stores struggle Footwear $ % Change, DTC vs. remaining channels 5ME May19 5ME May20 8% -1% -12% -20% DTC Remaining channels *DTC = Factory Outlet + Vertical Shoe Stores Source: The NPD Group/Consumer Tracking Service DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 7 DTC remains a major portion of sales for top brands Consumers reporting DTC gains for both Nike and adidas YTD May20 Select Brands, Footwear $ voluMe % Select Brands, $ % change 5ME May 20 vs. 5ME May 19 Total Brand $ % DTC Other Outlets DTC others Loss 5ME May20 1% -17% 24% Nike -21% adidas 18% -4% 31% -12% -30% -29% 47% Skechers -28% 57% -16% -26% Vans -35% Source: The NPD Group/Consumer Tracking Service DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 8 Nearly 30% of all Active Apparel sold is Private Label Total Market vs. Private Label – ATHLETIC Athletic Private Label 12ME May20 Private Label Rest of Market 28% of Apparel $56.1 B Y/Y Dollar % Growth : -3% $44.0 B Y/Y Unit % Growth : +1% 3% of Footwear Y/Y Dollar % Growth : -9% Y/Y Unit % Growth : -14% Apparel Footwear Document classification: NPD Internal Only The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidential The NPD Group/ Consumer Tracking Service 9 Exercise Habits are changing Compared to pre-COVID behavior, exercising at home has increased by more than 70% and twice as many consumers are using online or app based exercise classes. Exercise at a gym Exercise at home Online/app based exercise classes Yoga Bicycle riding 63% 51% 50% 43% 38% 21% 25% 29% 13% 14% 11% 11% 27% 9% 11% 10% 2% 6% Before COVID-19 During COVID-19 Plan to do After Before COVID-19 During COVID-19 Plan to do After COVID-19 COVID-19 Source: The NPD Group/ Checkout DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 10 DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 11 Current ONLINE trends 5ME May20 Fashion Apparel Active Apparel Fashion Footwear Athletic Footwear flat +19% -11% +25% $15B $6B $3B $6B Year over year % change Online Dollars —5ME May 2020 Source: The NPD Group/Consumer Tracking Service DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 12 Online penetration in Footwear during the shutdown is over 50%; for Apparel, online volume is 45% of sales % Footwear sales % Apparel sales Store Online Store Online 28 28 25 28 25 51 28 45 Jan + Feb 19 Jan + Feb 20 Jan + Feb 21 Mar - May 19 Mar - May 20 Jan + Feb 19 Jan + Feb 20 Jan + Feb 21 Mar - May 19 Mar - May 20 Source: The NPD Group/Consumer Tracking Service DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 13 U.S. ATHLETIC FOOTWEAR DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 14 Footwear was off to a good start… then Covid-19 Athletic Footwear $ Volume , in billions March - May down The first 2 months of 2020 were up +3% -32% to last year $2,856 $2,956 $5,437 $3,694 Jan + Feb '19 Jan + Feb '20 Mar - May '19 Mar - May '20 Source: The NPD Group/Retail Tracking Service DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 15 Covid losses take FTW down -20% YTD Athletic Footwear $ Volume, in billions YTD May20 vs. PY -$1.6B -19.8% -21.8% in units, ASP +2.6% $7,839 $8,371 $8,293 $6,650 5ME May17 5ME May 18* 5ME May19 5ME May 20 rd * Q1 18 contains the 53 week in January 2018 Source: The NPD Group/Retail Tracking Service DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 16 All Categories of footwear losing ground YTD Footwear $ Volume by Super Category $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 -17% Sport Leisure $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 -24% Millions $2,000 Performance $1,500 $1,000 -28% $500 Outdoor Work/OCC/Safety $0 -7% 5ME May17 5ME May18 5ME May19 5ME May20 Source: The NPD Group/Retail Tracking Service DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 17 Many brands with double digit losses – only Brooks pulls out a net $ gain Top Athletic Footwear Brands, $ Volume, (in millions) Top Athletic Footwear Brands, Absolute $ Change, (in millions) 5ME May20 5ME May20 vs. 5ME May19 $2,201 Nike -$544 -20% $827 Jordan -$50 -6% $639 adidas -$169 -21% $310 Skechers -$93 -23% $262 New Balance -$68 -21% $176 Brooks $16 +10% $154 Under Armour -$62 -29% $141 ASICS -$26 -16% $140 Vans -$56 -28% $122 Puma -$4 -4% $107 Converse -$77 -42% Source: The NPD Group/Retail Tracking Service DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 18 Losses extend to nearly every class of footwear Soccer/Footba ll, $75 Golf, $78 Baseball, $101 Walking $120 Skate $149 Sport Slide Hiking/Trekking $180 $178 Cold/All Weather Boots Basketball $192 $194 Top Athletic Footwear Classes, Incremental $ Sales, in millions Training $267 5ME May20 vs. 5ME May19 Work/OCC/Safety $293 $8,800 Running $8,200 $699 Millions $7,600 $7,000 $702 $224 $23 $85 $68 $59 $68 $36 $6,400 $67 $14 $85 $41 $71 $98 $5,800 Sport Lifestyle $5,200 $3,525 $4,600 $8,293 $6,650 $4,000 Golf Skate Running Tr aining Walking Baseball Al l OtHer Basketball 5ME May19 Sport Slide 5ME May20 Sport Lifestyle Hiking/Trekking Soccer/Football Work/OCC/Safety Athletic FTW 5ME May 20 $ (M) Cold/All WeatHer Boots Source: The NPD Group/Retail Tracking Service DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 19 Top categories moved upwards as stores opened; those posting May gains include Sports Lifestyle and Sport Slides Top FTW Categories, Weekly Dollar Sales % change YoY, 21 weeks ending May 30, 2020 100.0 Sport Lifestyle Running 60.0 Work/OCC/Safety 20.0 Training Basketball -20.0 Cold/All W. Boots -60.0 Hiking/Trekking Sport Slide -100.0 Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 Source: The NPD Group/Retail Tracking Service DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc. Internal | Proprietary Only and confidential 20 All wearer segments posting double digits losses Footwear by Gender, $ Volume, in billions 5ME May17 5ME May18 5ME May19 5ME May20 $4,500 $4,000 -20% $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 -18% $2,000 -22% $1,500 $1,000 $500 $3,232 $2,074 $1,344 $0 Men Women Children Source: The NPD Group/Retail Tracking Service DocumentThe classification: NPD Group, NPD Inc.
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