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India Daily, September 5, 2011

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India Daily, September 5, 2011 INDIA DAILY September 5, 2011 India 2-Sep 1-day1-mo 3-mo Sensex 16,821 0.9 (2.8) (8.5) Nifty 5,040 0.8 (3.3) (8.6) Contents Global/Regional indices Daily Alerts Dow Jones 11,240 (2.2) (1.8) (7.5) Nasdaq Composite 2,480 (2.6) (2.1) (9.2) Change in Reco FTSE 5,292 (2.3) 0.9 (9.6) GAIL (India): Upgrade to BUY Nikkie 8,804 (1.6) (5.3) (7.3) Company Hang Seng 19,805 (2.0) (5.4) (13.7) KOSPI 1,816 (2.8) (6.6) (14.1) JSW Steel: Impact on production likely Value traded – India Sector Cash (NSE+BSE) 150 137 134 Property: Sticking with quality Derivatives (NSE) 832 958 726 Strategy Deri. open interest 1,150 1,113 1,183 Strategy: Emerging market ETFs see very large outflows amidst global concerns Forex/money market Change, basis points 2-Sep 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Rs/US$ 45.8 (1) 105 103 10yr govt bond, % 8.4 3 (7) 8 Net investment (US$mn) 30-Aug MTD CYTD FIIs 147 - (93) MFs 58 - (282) Top movers -3mo basis Change, % Best performers 2-Sep 1-day 1-mo 3-mo IDEA IN Equity 100.3 0.3 4.5 42.6 BJAUT IN Equity 1628.1 3.5 16.4 18.3 MM IN Equity 765.1 3.7 17.1 14.5 BPCL IN Equity 682.6 1.2 (2.8) 9.9 NEST IN Equity 4492.2 2.3 6.0 9.7 Worst performers EDSL IN Equity 197.1 (3.5) (34.8) (56.3) IVRC IN Equity 35.8 2.1 (28.7) (48.5) CRG IN Equity 150.3 (0.1) (4.8) (42.4) HDIL IN Equity 105.7 3.5 (14.8) (34.7) ESOIL IN Equity 87.7 (0.8) (13.9) (31.6) For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES. REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. BUY GAIL (India) (GAIL) Energy SEPTEMBER 5, 2011 CHANGE IN RECO. Coverage view: Neutral Upgrade to BUY. We upgrade GAIL stock to BUY from ADD noting 35% potential Price (Rs): 415 upside to our SOTP-based target price of `560 (FY2013E basis). We see the recent Target price (Rs): 560 correction in GAIL’s stock price as a good entry point to buy the stock given a favorable BSE-30: 16,821 risk-reward balance. Our trough-case valuation of `487 based on FY2012E estimates reflects no value creation from new gas pipelines, ruling out concerns on a ramp-up in gas supply. We have updated our earnings model for the FY2011 annual report. Company data and valuation summary GAIL (India) Stock data Forecasts/Valuations 2011 2012E 2013E 52-week range (Rs) (high,low)538-407 EPS (Rs) 28.2 34.3 36.0 QUICK NUMBERS Market Cap. (Rs bn) 520.8 EPS growth (%) 13.8 21.8 4.9 Shareholding pattern (%) P/E (X) 14.6 12.0 11.4 • 129 mcm/d of gas Promoters 57.3 Sales (Rs bn) 324.6 400.6 455.0 FIIs 13.7 Net profits (Rs bn) 35.7 43.5 45.6 volumes in FY2013E MFs 4.1 EBITDA (Rs bn) 59.9 72.0 81.7 Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M EV/EBITDA (X) 8.4 8.2 7.4 • 35% potential Absolute (11.0) (7.3) (10.6) ROE (%) 17.5 18.4 16.5 upside from current Rel. to BSE-30 (2.8) 1.3 (3.3) Div. Yield (%) 1.8 2.2 2.4 levels Our estimates of ramp-up in gas transmission volumes for GAIL are achievable • 17% potential We believe the current valuation of GAIL reflects the market’s concerns about a ramp-up of upside in the domestic gas supply in India and diversion of gas away from GAIL’s petrochemical plant. We think trough-case the latter is unlikely and we factor the former in our assumptions of gas transmission volume for scenario GAIL at 120 mcm/d (+2 mcm/d) in FY2012E, 129 mcm/d (+9 mcm/d) in FY2013E and 145 mcm/d in FY2014E (+16 mcm/d). We highlight that LNG imports from new terminals at Kochi and Dabhol will contribute incremental gas volumes of 5 mcm/d in FY2013E and 8 mcm/d in FY2014E. We expect the residual increase in our gas volume estimates can be achieved by (1) contribution from ONGC’s marginal fields and (2) gradual increase in RIL’s gas production from current low levels. 17% potential upside to trough-case assuming no value creation from new pipelines We compute a trough-case valuation of `487/share (see Exhibit 1), based on (1) 6X annualized 1QFY12 reported EBIT for gas and LPG transmission segments, (2) 5X FY2012E EBITDA for LPG production business assuming 39% subsidy burden on upstream companies, (3) 6X FY2012E EBITDA of `12.8 bn (lower than reported EBITDA of `13.6 bn in FY2011) for petrochemical segment and (4) capital WIP of `59 bn at end-FY2011 book value ignoring any value creation from new gas pipelines. Upgrade to BUY on attractive risk-reward balance We upgrade the stock to BUY from our ADD rating previously noting 35% potential upside to our SOTP-based fair valuation of `560. We use 12-month forward DCF valuation to value GAIL’s gas transportation segment and FY2013E EBITDA to value GAIL’s other segments (LPG transportation, LPG production and petrochemicals). Our net debt computation includes adjustment for (1) payment of `13.2 bn under protest on account of income tax demand and (2) liability of `7.2 bn on account of gas pool money. Reduced FY2012-14E earnings moderately We have revised our FY2012E, FY2013E and FY2014E EPS to `34.3, `36 and `41 from `36.6, `39.2 and `45.3 previously to reflect (1) lower gas transmission volumes in FY2013-14E, (2) FY2011 annual report and (3) other minor changes. We assume that the upstream companies will bear 39% of the gross under-recoveries in FY2012-14E. For private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. GAIL (India) Energy Our trough-case valuation for GAIL is `487/share Trough-case valuation for GAIL, FY2012E basis (`/share) EV (Rs bn) Valuation base (Rs bn) Multiples (X) Replacement/ EBITDA Value Market value EBITDA EV/RC EV/EBITDA market value basis (Rs/share) 1. Valuation of extant businesses Natural gas/LPG transportation (a) 44.4 6.0 267 210 LPG production (b) 16.8 5.0 84 66 Petrochemicals (c) 12.8 6.0 77 60 Value of extant businesses (A) 337 2. Valuation of investments ONGC shares (@Rs264/share) 54 1.0 54 43 Others (@cmp or book value) 51 1.0 51 40 Value of investments (B) 83 3. Valuation of E&P segment Estimated value of Myanmar gas 14 1.0 14 11 Estimated value of Cambay (CB-ONN-2001/1) oil 6 1.0 6 4 Value of E&P segment (C) 15 Enterprise value (A) + (B) + (C) 435 Capital WIP (book value) 59 1.0 59 46 Net debt/(cash) (d) (4) (5) Fair value excluding potential value from new gas pipelines 487 Notes: (a) Based on 1QFY12 reported EBIT for gas transmission segment. (b) Based on LPG production and estimated subsidy burden for FY2012E. (c) Based on FY2012E EBITDA for petrochemical segment. (d) Adjusted net debt as on March 31, 2011. Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates Other details from the annual report ` Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Limited (BCPL). GAIL’s FY2011 annual report highlights the cost and time over-runs in the BCPL project. The project cost has increased to `92.9 bn versus `54.6 bn estimated in August 2005. The revised target of start of commercial production is December 2013 versus January 2012 previously. However, we do not rule out further slippages in the project. The management has highlighted several reasons for the delay in the project, which include heavy and prolonged monsoons, poor response from bidders, labor problems and delay in award of process technology licensors. BCPL is setting up a 280,000 tpa polymer plant (PP, HDPE, LLDPE) and GAIL has a 70% stake in the project. ` Sharp decline in gas pool contribution reflects increase in APM gas price. We note GAIL’s expenditure towards the gas pool account has declined to `4.3 bn in FY2011 versus `9.7 bn in FY2010 which reflects the increase in APM gas prices implemented in May 2010. ` Sharp decline in E&P expenses. We highlight the sharp decline in GAIL’s E&P related expenses to `1.4 bn in FY2011 versus `3.5 bn in FY2010 reflecting (1) lower survey expenses at `0.8 bn versus `1.3 bn in FY2010 and (2) lower write-offs from dry wells at `0.5 bn versus `2.1 bn in the previous year. ` Increase in gas pipeline infrastructure. The company has commissioned 761 kms of new pipelines in FY2011 including, (1) Vijaipur-Dadri pipeline (498 kms), (2) Sultanpur- Neemrana pipeline (175 km) and (3) Focus Energy pipeline (88 kms). GAIL now operates 8,644 kms of gas pipelines in India with a transmission capacity of 170 mcm/d. The management has guided to commissioning of (1) Dahej-Vijaipur pipeline Phase-II (610 kms), (2) Bawana-Nangal pipeline (501 kms), (3) two compressors at Jhabua and Vijaipur and (4) two compressors at Kailaras and Chainsa, by end-CY2011.
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