Who will win - PlayStation 4 or Xbox One?
First, a big THANK YOU, and terms of usage. The past 40 years saw 7 generations of video game consoles come and go. The console with the longest lifetime (>24 game releases per year) is Microsoft's XBox 360 with 13 years, and going! But who will be the toprunn..
This data story has been created by Christian A. Schiller for Udacity Data Analyst Nanodegree (DAND) in January 2018. A big thank you goes to www.MobyGames.com for providing API access to the huge games database for purpose of this Udacity DAND student project.
This data story is made exclusively for this student project and is NOT to be redistributed or used in any other way without explicit permission by both Christian A. Schiller AND MobyGames. Please contact webmaster at carpeludum dot com for inquiries.
What is MobyGames? MobyGames is the working name of an extremely ambitious project: To meticulously catalog all relevant information - credits, screenshots, formats, and release info - about electronic games (computer, console, and arcade) on a game-by-game basis, and then offer up that information through flexible queries and "data mining". In layman's terms, it's a huge game database. MobyGames is the world's largest and most flexible electronic game documentation project in existence. And best of all, it's added to, rated, and reviewed by you--the gaming public. MobyGames is, literally, built by gamers. Who will win - PlayStation 4 or Xbox One?
First, a big THANK YOU, and The past 40 years saw 7 generations of video game consoles come and The view on total game terms of usage. go. The console with the longest lifetime (>24 game releases per year) is releases per platform over Microsoft's XBox 360 with 13 years, and going! But who will be the time shows a general toprunner of generation 8? What drives a console generation's lifetime? increase of games, reflectin..
Generation Platform 2 Atari 2600 Intellivision 3 Master System NES 4 Mega Drive/Gen.. PC Engine SNES 5 Nintendo 64 PlayStation 1 Saturn 6 Dreamcast Gamecube PlayStation 2 Xbox 7 PlayStation 3 Wii Xbox 360 8 PlayStation 4 Wii U Xbox One 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Who will win - PlayStation 4 or Xbox One?
The past 40 years saw 7 The view on total game releases per platform over time shows a general Looking at the overall ratio of generations of video game increase of games, reflecting the videogame industry growth (top exclusive game releases consoles come and go. The graph). There has always been a "battle of systems" - some games are (independent of platform) console with the longest li.. released exclusively for only one platform (bottom graph). reveals a steady decline, sho..
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0K 3000 2500 Platform Atari 2600 Mega Dri.. PlayStati.. Wii Dreamcast NES PlayStati.. Wii U s 2000 e
v Gamecube Nintendo .. PlayStati.. Xbox i s
u 1500 Intellivisi.. PC Engine Saturn Xbox 360 l c
x Master S.. PlayStati.. SNES Xbox One E 1000
500 0 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Year Who will win - PlayStation 4 or Xbox One?
The view on total game Looking at the overall ratio of exclusive game releases (independent of The investigation shows that releases per platform over platform) reveals a steady decline, showing an industry-trend towards these dips correlate with time shows a general more multi-platform games. But there are visible dips in the years video game generation increase of games, reflecti.. 1984/85, 1996, 2006/07 and 2014/15! - Let's investigate those. changes, when game release..
100
90
80
70 o i 60 t a R e v
i 50 s u l c x
E 40
30 Dip 2 20 Dip 3 Dip 1 10 0 Dip 4 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Year Who will win - PlayStation 4 or Xbox One?
Looking at the overall ratio The investigation shows that these dips correlate with video game So what does this mean for of exclusive game releases generation changes, when game releases decline for the then-current the current generation 8? (independent of platform) generation and ramps-up for the new generation ("total games"). The Let's compare this one to the reveals a steady decline, s.. four graphs show total games and exclusives per dip & generation previous one (7). First, choo..
Generation Generation 2 3 4 5 . . . 200 . a a
g g 400
Dip 1 Dip 2 l l
a 100 a t t 200 o o
T 0 T . . . .
v 100 v 100 i i s s u u
l 50 l 50 c c x x
E 0 E 0 1982 1984 1986 1982 1984 1986 1995 1996 1997 1998 1995 1996 1997 1998 Year Year Year Year
Generation Generation 6 7 7 8 . . 2K a s l e g
Dip 3 a Dip 4
l 1000 t m a o 1K a t T
500 g o
T 0K . . . .
v 100 v 100 i i s s u u
l 50 l 50 c c x x
E 0 E 0 2006 2008 2010 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2012 2014 2016 Year Year Year Year Who will win - PlayStation 4 or Xbox One?
The investigation shows So what does this mean for the current generation 8? Let's compare this Trend lines show that for that these dips correlate one to the previous one (7). First, choose a comparable time frame generation 7, there is one with video game generation concerning generation lifetime. Generation 8 is "alive" for 6 years now, platform - Sony's PlayStation changes, when game relea.. so let's compare it with the first 6 years of generation 7. 3 - with already declining exc..
Generation 7: First 6 years Generation 8: First 6 Years Generation Generation 7 8 1500 Platform Platform PlayStation 3 2K PlayStation 4 s s e Wii e Wii U m 1000 m a a
g Xbox 360 g Xbox One
l l a a
t t 1K o o
T 500 T
0 0K 50 50
o 40 o 40 i i t t a a
R 30 R 30 e e v v i i s s
u 20 u 20 l l c c x x E 10 E 10 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Year Who will win - PlayStation 4 or Xbox One?
So what does this mean for Trend lines show that for generation 7, there is one platform - Sony's Let's look at the remaining the current generation 8? PlayStation 3 - with already declining exclusive ratio. In generation 8, lifetime of generation 7 to Let's compare this one to there is also already one platform with that trend: Microsoft's XBox One! see how the trends continued the previous one (7). First,.. for the generation's platfor..
Generation 7: First 6 years Generation 8: First 6 Years Generation Generation 7 8 1500 Platform Platform PlayStation 3 2K PlayStation 4 s s e Wii e Wii U m 1000 m a a
g Xbox 360 g Xbox One
l l a a
t t 1K o o
T 500 T
0 0K 50 50
o 40 o 40 i i t t a a
R 30 R 30 e e v v i i s s
u 20 u 20 l l c c x x E 10 E 10 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Year Who will win - PlayStation 4 or Xbox One?
Trend lines show that for Let's look at the remaining lifetime of generation 7 to see how the trends CONCLUSION: Based on the generation 7, there is one continued for the generation's platforms. The trends show a declining correlation found between platform - Sony's exclusivity ratio for all platforms. The platform with the steepest decline exclusive ratio and platform PlayStation 3 - with alread.. - Nintendo Wii - showed the shortest lifetime. decline over the past four de..
Generation 7 - Remaining Years Exclusivity Trend Generation 7 . . 1500 m Platform a g
1000
l PlayStati.. Wii Xbox 360 a
t 500 o T R
e 40 v i o i s t u l a 20 c x
E 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year
Generation 7 Platform Lifetime Generation Platform 7 PlayStation 3 Wii Xbox 360 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Who will win - PlayStation 4 or Xbox One?
Let's look at the remaining CONCLUSION: Based on the correlation found between exclusive ratio BONUS lifetime of generation 7 to and platform decline over the past four decades, it is highly likely that see how the trends the next platform to decline will be Microsoft's Xbox One. Nintendo has continued for the generati.. already reacted by replacing Wii U with Switch - what will Microsoft do?
Generation 8: First 6 Years Generation 8 s l 2K Platform e a t m
o PlayStati.. Wii U Xbox One a
T 1K g R
e 40 v i o i s t u l a 20 c x E 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year
Generation 8 Platform Lifetime Generation Platform 8 PlayStation 4 Wii U Xbox One 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year Who will win - PlayStation 4 or Xbox One?
CONCLUSION: Based on the BONUS An interesting area of correlation found between investigating could be if there exclusive ratio and is a correlation of game platform decline over the .. ratings and generation chan..
The following slides are some additional data visualisations created with the data "easily" reachable via MobyGames API.
More interesting correlation investigations, such as based on geography or publisher/developer data, require different usage of APIs (requests per game instead of per platform - would result in thousands of API queries!), which could not be realised within the timeframe of the Udacity DAND project. Who will win - PlayStation 4 or Xbox One?
BONUS An interesting area of investigating could be if there is a correlation of The available data also game ratings and generation change. Data shows that in general, includes genre information of MobyGames user scores for games increased constantly over the last 40 games (action, RPG, strategy, years. But no (visually) significant dips like for exclusivity ratio. sports, ...). An investigation ..
Average Mobygame score per year 5,0 4,5 Number of votes required per game to count for average calculation 10 to 761 4,0 2
e 3,5 r o c S
y 3,0 b o M
. 2,5 n h c
s 2,0 h c r u
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1,0
0,5 0,0 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Year Who will win - PlayStation 4 or Xbox One?
An interesting area of The available data also includes genre information of games (action, BONUS - additional data from investigating could be if RPG, strategy, sports, ...). An investigation could correlate that with user Wikipedia. For each there is a correlation of ratings. The example below shows the difference of number and rating of generation until 7, the total game ratings and generati.. role-playing games based on number of votes >12 or <12. console sales have increased..
Well-known RPGs with >12 votes RPGs with <12 votes - insider tips?
180 450 Generation 160 400 s 2 s e e
m 3 m a 140 a 350 g g 4 ) ) G G
P 120 5 P 300 R R ( (
6 g g n n i 100 7 i 250 y y a a
l 8 l P P - 80 - e e
l l 200 o o R R
f 60 f o o 150 r r e e
b 40 b m m 100 u u N 20 N 50 0 0 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 Average user rating (n>12) Average user rating (n<12) Who will win - PlayStation 4 or Xbox One?
The available data also includes genre information of BONUS - additional data from Wikipedia. For each generation until 7, the games (action, RPG, strategy, sports, ...). An investigation total console sales have increased so far. Generation 8 is still in it's could correlate that with user ratings. The example below heyday, console sales are expected to top generation 7. Top-selling shows the difference of number and rating of role-playing .. console of all times is Sony's PlayStation 2!
180M
160M
140M PlayStation 1 Wii
120M W W
d l 100M PlayStation 2 PlayStation 4 o S
s NES t Xbox 360 i
n 80M U SNES 60M Nintendo 64 PlayStation 3 Xbox One Atari 2600 40M Mega Drive/Genesis Gamecube Master System Xbox Wii U 20M PC Engine Saturn Intellivision Dreamcast 0M 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Generation