A Global Contagion of Infodemics & Conspiracy Theories
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Statistical Language Backs Conservatism in Climate-Change
Forum Statistical Language Backs Conservatism in Climate-Change Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article-abstract/69/3/209/5382637 by United Nations Library Geneva user on 22 March 2019 Assessments SALVADOR HERRANDO-PÉREZ , COREY J. A. BRADSHAW , STEPHAN LEWANDOWSKY, AND DAVID R. VIEITES The scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change is empirically settled, but communicating it to nonscientific audiences remains challenging. To be explicit about the state of knowledge on climate science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has adopted a vocabulary that ranks climate findings through certainty-calibrated qualifiers of confidence and likelihood. In this article, we quantified the occurrence of knowns and unknowns about “The Physical Science Basis” of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report by counting the frequency of calibrated qualifiers. We found that the tone of the IPCC’s probabilistic language is remarkably conservative (mean confidence is medium, and mean likelihood is 66%–100% or 0–33%), and emanates from the IPCC recommendations themselves, complexity of climate research, and exposure to politically motivated debates. Leveraging communication of uncertainty with overwhelming scientific consensus about anthropogenic climate change should be one element of a wider reform, whereby the creation of an IPCC outreach working group could enhance the transmission of climate science to the panel’s audiences. Keywords: climate change, communication, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, terminology, uncertainty ommunicating scientific and statistical uncertainty and finally we identify challenges and propose future direc- C to nonacademic audiences, including policymakers, tions that could bolster the IPCC’s communication strategy is one of the most important challenges of modern sci- and the public transmission of climate science as a whole. -
Topics: Misinformation and Conspiracy Theories About Politics and Public Policy
PUBPOL 750.308: Topics: Misinformation and Conspiracy Theories about Politics and Public Policy Instructor: Prof. Brendan Nyhan Office: 4129 Weill Hall / 4408 ISR Classroom: 1210 Weill Hall Office hours: Thursday 9 AM{12 PM (Weill) Term: Winter 2019 (appts.: http://meetme.so/BrendanNyhan) Schedule: MW 2:30{3:50 PM Email: [email protected] \It is better to know less than to know so much that ain't so." {Josh Billings \A wise man should be humble enough to admit when he's wrong and change his mind based on new information." {Kanye West \Fearful Americans Stockpiling Facts Before Federal Government Comes To Take Them Away" {The Onion Overview of the course Why do people hold false or unsupported beliefs about politics and public policy and why are those beliefs so hard to change? This three-credit graduate course will explore the psychological factors that make people vulnerable to misinfor- mation and conspiracy theories and the reasons that corrections so often fail to change their minds. We will also analyze how those tendencies are exploited by political elites and consider possible approaches that journalists, civic reformers, and government officials could employ to combat misperceptions. Students will develop substantive expertise in how to measure, diagnose, and respond to false beliefs about politics and public policy; methodological expertise in reading and analyzing quantitative and experimental research in social science; and writing skills in preparing a policy memo making recommendations for how to address a prominent misperception and a final research paper analyzing the development of a specific misperception or conspiracy theory. Instructional approach Each class period will include a mix of lecture highlighting and expanding on key points from the readings and answering any questions about them, class discussion, and active learning exercises in which we critically examine the ideas introduced in the readings. -
'Pause' in Global Warming in Historical Context : (II). Comparing Models to Observations
This is a repository copy of The 'pause' in global warming in historical context : (II). Comparing models to observations. White Rose Research Online URL for this paper: https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/142118/ Version: Published Version Article: Lewandowsky, Stephan, Cowtan, Kevin orcid.org/0000-0002-0189-1437, Risbey, James S. et al. (4 more authors) (2018) The 'pause' in global warming in historical context : (II). Comparing models to observations. Environmental Research Letters. 123007. ISSN 1748- 9326 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372 Reuse This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) licence. This licence allows you to distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon the work, even commercially, as long as you credit the authors for the original work. More information and the full terms of the licence here: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/ Takedown If you consider content in White Rose Research Online to be in breach of UK law, please notify us by emailing [email protected] including the URL of the record and the reason for the withdrawal request. [email protected] https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/ Environmental Research Letters TOPICAL REVIEW • OPEN ACCESS Recent citations The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: - Influence and seepage: An evidence- resistant minority can affect public opinion (II). Comparing models to observations and scientific belief formation Stephan Lewandowsky et al To cite this article: Stephan Lewandowsky et al 2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 123007 - A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence James S Risbey et al View the article online for updates and enhancements. -
United States Court of Appeals for the NINTH CIRCUIT ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ ◆◆◆⎯ ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ COUNTY of SAN MATEO, No
Case: 18-15499, 01/29/2019, ID: 11171856, DktEntry: 95, Page 1 of 51 Nos. 18-15499, 18-15502, 18-15503, 18-16376 United States Court Of Appeals FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ ◆◆◆⎯ ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ ⎯ COUNTY OF SAN MATEO, No. 18-15499 Plaintiff-Appellee, No. 17-cv-4929-VC v. N.D. Cal., San Francisco CHEVRON CORPORATION, et al., Hon. Vince Chhabria Defendants-Appellants COUNTY OF IMPERIAL BEACH, No. 18-15502 Plaintiff-Appellee, No. 17-cv-4934-VC v. N.D. Cal., San Francisco CHEVRON CORPORATION, et al., Hon. Vince Chhabria Defendants-Appellants COUNTY OF MARIN, No. 18-15503 Plaintiff-Appellee, No. 17-cv-4935-VC v. N.D. Cal., San Francisco CHEVRON CORPORATION, et al., Hon. Vince Chhabria Defendants-Appellants COUNTY OF SANTA CRUZ, et al., No. 18-16376 Plaintiff-Appellee, Nos. 18-cv-00450-VC; v. 18-cv-00458-VC; CHEVRON CORPORATION, et al., 18-cv-00732-VC Defendants-Appellants N.D. Cal., San Francisco Hon. Vince Chhabria BRIEF OF AMICI CURIAE ROBERT BRULE, CENTER FOR CLIMATE INTEGRITY, JUSTIN FARRELL, BENJAMIN FRANTA, STEPHAN LEWANDOWSKY, NAOMI ORESKES, and GEOFFREY SUPRAN IN SUPPORT OF APPELLEES AND AFFIRMANCE DANIEL P. MENSHER 1201 THIRD AVENUE, SUITE 3200 ALISON S. GAFFNEY SEATTLE, WA 98101-3052 KELLER ROHRBACK L.L.P. Tel: (206) 623-1900 Counsel for Amici Curiae Case: 18-15499, 01/29/2019, ID: 11171856, DktEntry: 95, Page 2 of 51 TABLE OF CONTENTS CORPORATE DISCLOSURE STATEMENT ......................................... 1 IDENTITY AND INTEREST OF AMICUS CURIAE ............................ 2 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 1 I. DEFENDANTS HAD ACTUAL KNOWLEDGE OF THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THEIR FOSSIL FUEL PRODUCTS ................................................. 3 A. Defendants had early knowledge that fossil fuel products were causing an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and that this increase could result in “catastrophic” consequences. -
In Global Warming in Historical Context: - a Proposed Exogenous Cause of the Global Temperature Hiatus (II)
Environmental Research Letters TOPICAL REVIEW • OPEN ACCESS Recent citations The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: - A Proposed Exogenous Cause of the Global Temperature Hiatus (II). Comparing models to observations Norman Treloar - Influence and seepage: An evidence- To cite this article: Stephan Lewandowsky et al 2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 123007 resistant minority can affect public opinion and scientific belief formation Stephan Lewandowsky et al - A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and View the article online for updates and enhancements. retrospective on the evidence James S Risbey et al This content was downloaded from IP address 193.174.18.1 on 01/03/2019 at 11:09 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 123007 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372 TOPICAL REVIEW The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing OPEN ACCESS models to observations RECEIVED 6 February 2017 Stephan Lewandowsky1,2,3 , Kevin Cowtan4, James S Risbey3 , Michael E Mann5, Byron A Steinman6, REVISED Naomi Oreskes7 and Stefan Rahmstorf8,9 11 November 2018 1 University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom ACCEPTED FOR PUBLICATION 2 23 November 2018 University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia 3 CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia PUBLISHED 4 Department of Chemistry, University of York, York, United Kingdom 19 December 2018 5 Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, Pennsylvania State University, State College, United States of America 6 Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Large Lakes Observatory, University of Minnesota Duluth, Duluth, United States Original content from this of America work may be used under 7 Department of the History of Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, United States of America the terms of the Creative 8 Commons Attribution 3.0 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, D-14473, Germany licence. -
Attitudes Towards Climate Change Are Mediated by Perceived Social Consensus
Memory & Cognition (2019) 47:1445–1456 https://doi.org/10.3758/s13421-019-00948-y Science by social media: Attitudes towards climate change are mediated by perceived social consensus Stephan Lewandowsky1,2 · John Cook2,3 · Nicolas Fay2 · Gilles E. Gignac2 Published online: 21June2019 © The Author(s) 2019, corrected publication 2019 Abstract Internet blogs have become an important platform for the discussion of many scientific issues, including climate change. Blogs, and in particular the comment sections of blogs, also play a major role in the dissemination of contrarian positions that question mainstream climate science. The effect of this content on people’s attitudes is not fully understood. In particular, it is unknown how the interaction between the content of blog posts and blog comments affects readers’ attitudes. We report an experiment that orthogonally varied those two variables using blog posts and comments that either did, or did not, support the scientific consensus on climate change. We find that beliefs are partially shaped by readers’ perception of how widely an opinion expressed in a blog post appears to be shared by other readers. The perceived social consensus among readers, in turn, is determined by whether blog comments endorse or reject the contents of a post. When comments reject the content, perceived reader consensus is lower than when comments endorse the content. The results underscore the importance of perceived social consensus on opinion formation. Keywords Social media · Science communication · Online disinformation · Perceived consensus Americans are now as likely to resort to the Internet as their dynamic has changed the nature of information transfer, primary source of science information as they are to rely on with readers no longer just consuming content passively but television (Su, Akin, Brossard, Scheufele, & Xenos, 2015). -
A New Model for Media Criticism: Lessons from the Schiavo Coverage
University of Miami Law Review Volume 61 Number 3 Volume 61 Number 3 (April 2007) SYMPOSIUM The Schiavo Case: Article 4 Interdisciplinary Perspectives 4-1-2007 A New Model for Media Criticism: Lessons from the Schiavo Coverage Lili Levi University of Miami School of Law, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.law.miami.edu/umlr Part of the Family Law Commons, Health Law and Policy Commons, and the Medical Jurisprudence Commons Recommended Citation Lili Levi, A New Model for Media Criticism: Lessons from the Schiavo Coverage, 61 U. Miami L. Rev. 665 (2007) Available at: https://repository.law.miami.edu/umlr/vol61/iss3/4 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at University of Miami School of Law Institutional Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in University of Miami Law Review by an authorized editor of University of Miami School of Law Institutional Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. A New Model for Media Criticism: Lessons from the Schiavo Coverage LILI LEVI* I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................... 665 II. SHARPLY DIVIDED CRITICISM OF SCHIAVO MEDIA COVERAGE ................... 666 . III. How SHOULD WE ASSESS MEDIA COVERAGE? 674 A. JournalisticStandards ............................................ 674 B. Internal Limits of JournalisticStandards ............................. 677 C. Modern Pressures on Journalistic Standards and Editorial Judgment .... 680 1. CHANGES IN INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND RESULTING ECONOMIC PRESSURES ................................................... 681 2. THE TWENTY-FOUR HOUR NEWS CYCLE ................................. 686 3. BLURRING THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN NEWS, OPINION, AND ENTERTAINMENT .............................................. 688 4. THE RISE OF BLOGS AND NEWS/COMMENTARY WEB SITES ................. 690 5. "NEWS AS CATFIGHT" - CHANGING DEFINITIONS OF BALANCE ........... -
MPJO-500-01: ETHICS GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: MPS JOURNALISM Wednesdays, 5:20 P.M
MPJO-500-01: ETHICS GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: MPS JOURNALISM Wednesdays, 5:20 p.m. to 7:50 p.m. | Spring 2017 Associate Professor: Brooke Van Dam, Ph.D. Downtown campus, Room C116 Office hours are by appointment COURSE OVERVIEW Journalists are confronted with ethical dilemmas on a routine basis that can challenge their personal and professional ideologies. This course explores the myriad of gray areas that dominate the way journalists work and live. It is designed to help students understand the ethical implications of the choices journalists make while empowering them to navigate the ever changing field. This is a core course of the MPS Journalism program, and students must earn a “B” (83) or higher to pass the course. Please see the Graduate Student Handbook for more details. COURSE OBJECTIVES By the end of this course, students will: Identify the basic tenants of journalism ethics and current ethical issues in the field Demonstrate ways to personally apply ethics in everyday news work Analyze major case studies of journalism ethics Relate the intersection of journalism ethics and media law REQUIRED READING Title: The New Ethics of Journalism: Principles for the 21st Century Author: Kelly McBride and Tom Rosenstiel Publisher: CQ Press Publication Year: 2013 ISBN: 978-1604265613 Price: $34.54 (from Amazon) Recommended readings and resources: Society of Professional Journalists & SPJ Ethics Committee Digital Media Law Project Legal Guide, Harvard University The Poynter Institute Columbia Journalism Review Digital Journalist’s Legal -
'Alice in Wonderland' Mechanics of the Rejection of (Climate) Science
Lewandowsky, S., Cook, J., & Lloyd, E. (2018). The ‘Alice in Wonderland’ mechanics of the rejection of (climate) science: simulating coherence by conspiracism. Synthese, 195(1), 175-196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-016-1198-6 Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record License (if available): CC BY Link to published version (if available): 10.1007/s11229-016-1198-6 Link to publication record in Explore Bristol Research PDF-document This is the final published version of the article (version of record). It first appeared online via Springer Verlag at DOI: 10.1007/s11229-016-1198-. Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher. University of Bristol - Explore Bristol Research General rights This document is made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the reference above. Full terms of use are available: http://www.bristol.ac.uk/red/research-policy/pure/user-guides/ebr-terms/ Synthese DOI 10.1007/s11229-016-1198-6 The ‘Alice in Wonderland’ mechanics of the rejection of (climate) science: simulating coherence by conspiracism Stephan Lewandowsky1,2 · John Cook2,3 · Elisabeth Lloyd4 Received: 18 February 2016 / Accepted: 4 August 2016 © The Author(s) 2016. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Abstract Science strives for coherence. For example, the findings from climate sci- ence form a highly coherent body of knowledge that is supported by many independent lines of evidence: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human economic activities are causing the global climate to warm and unless GHG emissions are drastically reduced in the near future, the risks from climate change will continue to grow and major adverse consequences will become unavoidable. -
Beyond Misinformation: Understanding and Coping with The
Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition 6 (2017) 353–369 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition journa l homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jarmac Beyond Misinformation: Understanding and Coping with the “Post-Truth” Era ∗ Stephan Lewandowsky University of Bristol, United Kingdom University of Western Australia, Australia Ullrich K.H. Ecker University of Western Australia, Australia John Cook George Mason University, United States The terms “post-truth” and “fake news” have become increasingly prevalent in public discourse over the last year. This article explores the growing abundance of misinformation, how it influences people, and how to counter it. We examine the ways in which misinformation can have an adverse impact on society. We summarize how people respond to corrections of misinformation, and what kinds of corrections are most effective. We argue that to be effective, scientific research into misinformation must be considered within a larger political, technological, and societal context. The post-truth world emerged as a result of societal mega-trends such as a decline in social capital, growing economic inequality, increased polarization, declining trust in science, and an increasingly fractionated media landscape. We suggest that responses to this malaise must involve technological solutions incorporating psychological principles, an interdisciplinary approach that we describe as “technocognition.” We outline a number of recommendations to counter misinformation in a post-truth world. General Audience Summary Imagine a world that considers knowledge to be “elitist.” Imagine a world in which it is not medical knowledge but a free-for-all opinion market on Twitter that determines whether a newly emergent strain of avian flu is really contagious to humans. -
Penelope Abernathy Joaquin Alvarado
How Will Journalism Survive the Internet Age? bios Penelope Abernathy Joaquin Alvarado Penelope Abernathy is Knight Chair in Journalism Joaquin Alvarado is Senior Vice President, Digital and Digital Media Economics at the University Innovation at American Public Media. Alvarado of North Carolina School of Journalism and leads strategic development of APM’s Public Mass Communication. Abernathy, a journalism Insight initiatives, as well as developing models for professional with more than 30 years experience deepening audience engagement, widening digital as a reporter, editor and media executive, became reach and increasing digital revenue growth across all the Knight Chair in Journalism and Digital Media operating divisions. Economics at the school July 1, 2008. Abernathy, a Laurinburg, N.C., native and former executive Alvarado comes to APM/MPR from the Corporation at the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, for Public Broadcasting, where he led successful specializes in preserving quality journalism by initiatives in broadening the reach and diversity helping the news business succeed economically in within public media as Senior Vice President for the digital media environment. Before joining the Diversity and Innovation. Prior to joining the school, she was vice president and executive director CPB, Alvarado spearheaded many key projects and of industry programs at the Paley Center for Media companies furthering new frameworks for public in New York City. As an executive, Abernathy media, education and community leadership in the launched new enterprises and helped increase Internet age. In 2008, he initiated CoCo Studios, revenue at some of the nation’s most prominent news promoting media collaboration and information organizations and publishing companies, including sharing for fiber and mobile networks. -
The Consensus Handbook Why the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change Is Important
The Consensus Handbook Why the scientific consensus on climate change is important John Cook Sander van der Linden Edward Maibach Stephan Lewandowsky Written by: John Cook, Center for Climate Change Communication, George Mason University Sander van der Linden, Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge Edward Maibach, Center for Climate Change Communication, George Mason University Stephan Lewandowsky, School of Experimental Psychology, University of Bristol, and CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia First published in March, 2018. For more information, visit http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/all/consensus-handbook/ Graphic design: Wendy Cook Page 21 image credit: John Garrett Cite as: Cook, J., van der Linden, S., Maibach, E., & Lewandowsky, S. (2018). The Consensus Handbook. DOI:10.13021/G8MM6P. Available at http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/all/consensus-handbook/ Introduction Based on the evidence, 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human- caused climate change is happening. This scientific consensus has been a hot topic in recent years. It’s been referenced by presidents, prime ministers, senators, congressmen, and in numerous television shows and newspaper articles. However, the story of consensus goes back decades. It’s been an underlying theme in climate discussions since the 1990s. Fossil fuel groups, conservative think-tanks, and political strategists were casting doubt on the consensus for over a decade before social scientists began studying the issue. From the 1990s to this day, most of the discussion has been about whether there is a scientific consensus that humans are causing global warming. As the issue has grown in prominence, a second discussion has arisen. Should we even be talking about scientific consensus? Is it productive? Does it distract from other important issues? This handbook provides a brief history of the consensus on climate change.