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China / Hong Kong Industry Focus HK Property Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 18 July 2018 Connected to a better future HSI: 28,316 ANALYST Jeff YAU CFA, +852 2820 4912 [email protected] Buying opportunity emerging after the recent sell-off in the Ian CHUI +852 2971 1915 [email protected] sector amid challenges faced by developers from vacancy Jason LAM +852 29711773 [email protected] tax and new sales rules Recommendation & valuation Office leasing demand remains in good shape Company T ick er Mk t Cap Price 12-m T P Recom Upcoming mega transport infrastructure projects to give a HK$bn HK$ HK$ big boost to retail and hotel sectors, our preferred sectors Property Developers CK Asset Hldgs 1113 HK 226 61.15 77.00 BUY Top picks: Wharf REIC (1997 HK), Sino Land (83 HK) and CSI Properties 497 HK 4 0.44 0.64 BUY New World (17 HK) Henderson Land 12 HK 181 41.20 52.25 BUY K.Wah Int'l 173 HK 13 4.36 6.24 BUY Market view. The government’s proposed vacancy tax and Kerry Props 683 HK 53 36.60 39.00 HOLD Lai Sun Development 488 HK 8 12.50 16.40 BUY new sales rules should not lead to any meaningful market MTR Corp 66 HK 262 42.90 47.40 BUY correction but pose challenges for developers when selling their New World Dev 17 HK 113 11.04 14.50 BUY residential projects. Office demand in Island East/Kowloon East Sino Land 83 HK 82 12.36 14.70 BUY is underpinned by decentralisation trend and consolidation SHKP 16 HK 346 119.50 148.80 BUY among multinational corporates while Central office market Tai Cheung 88 HK 5 8.85 10.70 BUY continues to be supported by China-based banking and finance Wharf Holdings 4 HK 78 25.60 26.10 HOLD Wheelock & Co 20 HK 112 54.80 70.00 BUY tenants. The soon-to-be-commissioned infrastructure projects Wing Tai Props 369 HK 9 6.34 7.54 BUY such as Express Rail Link should greatly enhance transportation Property Investors connectivity between Hong Kong and Mainland China, giving a Hang Lung Prop 101 HK 71 15.68 19.28 BUY further boost to the recovering retail and hotel markets. HK Land @ HKL SP 17 7.13 8.57 BUY Hysan Dev 14 HK 44 42.40 51.15 BUY Stock recommendations. Trading opportunities have emerged Swire Properties 1972 HK 171 29.25 34.25 BUY for property developers following the recent sell-off. We like Wharf REIC 1997 HK 171 56.45 65.40 BUY Sino Land which has a strong project launch pipeline in the near Diversified Properties future. New World Development offers good long term value. Far East Consortium 35 HK 10 4.52 5.53 BUY Retail landlords, Wharf REIC and Hysan Development (14 HK), Great Eagle 41 HK 27 38.40 41.00 HOLD REITs & Business Trust stand to benefit from the favourable retail scene. We like Champion REIT 2778 HK 30 5.13 5.55 BUY Fortune REIT (778 HK) and Sunlight REIT (435 HK) for their Fortune REIT 778 HK 18 9.21 10.50 BUY steady growth. Although the valuation is not compelling Langham Hospitality 1270 HK 7 3.17 3.68 BUY enough, the current unit buyback program should support Link Link REIT 823 HK 159 74.00 72.00 HOLD REIT’s (823 HK) unit price performance. Interest rate movements Prosperity REIT 808 HK 5 3.16 3.61 BUY would dictate the performance in the REIT sector. Regal REIT 1881 HK 7 2.30 2.61 BUY Sunlight REIT 435 HK 9 5.29 5.83 BUY @ Denominated in USD Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBS HK”) ed-TH JS KK/ sa- CS / AH China / Hong Kong Industry Focus HK Property Sector Table of Contents Investment summary 3 Residential 4 Office 14 Retail 20 Hotel 26 Property Developers 31 Property Investors 38 REITs 42 Appendix: Asset breakdown 49 Appendix: NAV sensitivities 51 Appendix: Stock repurchases 52 Appendix: Stake change by major shareholders 54 Stock Profiles 58 CK Asset Holdings (1113 HK) 58 CSI Properties Limited (497 HK) 60 Henderson Land Development Company Limited (12 HK) 62 K Wah International Holdings Limited (173 HK) 64 Kerry Properties Limited (683 HK) 66 Lai Sun Development Company Limited (488 HK) 68 MTR Corporation Limited (66 HK) 70 New World Development Company Limited (17 HK) 72 Sino Land Company Limited (83 HK) 74 Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited (16 HK) 76 Tai Cheung Holdings Limited (88 HK) 78 The Wharf Holdings Limited (4 HK) 80 Wheelock And Company Limited (20 HK) 82 Wing Tai Properties Limited (369 HK) 84 Hang Lung Properties Limited (101 HK) 86 Hongkong Land Holdings Limited (HKL SP) 88 Hysan Development Company Limited (14 HK) 90 Swire Properties Limited (1972 HK) 92 Wharf REIC (1997 HK) 94 Far East Consortium International Limited (35 HK) 96 Great Eagle Holdings Limited (41 HK) 98 Champion Real Estate Investment Trust (2778 HK) 100 Fortune Real Estate Investment Trust (778 HK) 102 Langham Hospitality Investment Limited (1270 HK) 104 Link Real Estate Investment Trust (823 HK) 106 Prosperity Real Estate Investment Trust (808 HK) 108 Regal Real Estate Investment Trust (1881 HK) 110 Sunlight Real Estate Investment Trust (435 HK) 112 Note: Prices used as of 6 July 2018 Covered photo (from left): Fleur Pavillia (New World Development); Cityplaza 3 and 4 (Swire Properties); TOP (Link REIT); Regal Hotel HK (Regal REIT) Page 2 China / Hong Kong Industry Focus HK Property Sector Investment summary Hotel Aided by the revival of overnight visitor arrivals from Mainland Residential China, hotel sector recovery has been gathering momentum. The recently announced new housing policies including the While Medium Tariff hotels continue to lead the market proposed vacancy tax and stricter sales rules should reduce recovery, High Tariff hotels are catching up. Overall, hoteliers developers’ flexibility in timing project launches and in turn achieved RevPAR growth of >10% YTD, primarily led by lessens their ability to maximise project margins. We expect increased room rates. The soon-to-be-commissioned Express developers to focus on clearing unsold completed inventory in Rail Link should improve connectivity between Mainland China the near term instead of pre-selling uncompleted projects. They and Hong Kong resulting in more overnight visitors from may offer minor price concessions to expedite inventory sales China. On the other hand, given buoyant commercial property to avoid the vacancy tax levy. That said, barring any external valuation, more hotels are expected to be redeveloped into shocks such as trade war escalating, we do not expect any commercial buildings to maximise property values. We meaningful market correction. We forecast residential prices to conclude that the hotel sector is on a multi-year uptrend. be stable in the coming 12 months after rising 12-13% in 1H18. Property Developers Property developers under our coverage are trading at 47% Office discount to their respective current NAV estimates, which lies Office leasing market remains active, particularly in Island East at the low end of historical trading range. Despite policy noise, and Kowloon East where office demand is driven by we see trading opportunities emerging following the sector’s decentralisation and consolidation requirement among sell-off. Sino Land has potential to trade higher if the multinational firms. The soon-to-be-completed office projects upcoming project launches, Grand Central in particular, are such as One Taikoo Place in Quarry Bay is substantially pre- greeted with favourable response. We also like New World committed. Central office demand continued to be supported Development which offers good long-term value with its new by China-based banking and finance tenants. Given tight investments. vacancy in Central, they are also seeking office accommodation outside of Central. The resulting notable improvement in office vacancy should lend support to rental growth which is Property Investors estimated at c.5% in 2018. En bloc office transactions remain Property investors we cover are trading at 38% discount to our in the limelight with Swire Properties selling its interest in current NAV estimates on a weighted average basis, against its Cityplaza Three and Cityplaza Four in Island East to a China- 10-year average of 30%. Within the sector, we like Wharf REIC based investment company. and Hysan Development which stand to benefit the most from the favourable retail scene. We upgraded Swire Properties to BUY after the recent share price retreat. Low valuations should Retail cushion further downside risk on Hang Lung Properties’ share Thanks to the return of tourists, retail market staged a better- price. than-expected recovery led by sales of expensive luxury products. Positive wealth effect driven by buoyant property market also contributed to increased local consumption on big REITs/Business Trusts ticket items. Overall, we forecast retail sales value to grow by The seven REITs/business trust we cover are trading at 10% in 2018 and 8% in 2019. Increased tenants’ sales should prospective distribution yield of 4.2% on a weighted average translate into higher retail turnover rents and bodes well for basis. This translates to a sector yield spread of 2%, against the reversionary growth in the years ahead. Overall, we forecast average of 3.1%. While the current valuation is not compelling that rents for high-street shops are generally bottoming in enough, the unit buyback program should lend support to Link 2018. Prime shopping malls should see rental growth of 5-8% REIT’s unit price performance.
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