INSIDE German Nuclear Stance Stirs Debate Volume 39 Number 10 Arms Control DECEMBER 2009 THE SOURCE ON NONPROLIFERATION AND GLOBAL SECURITYT ODAY IN THIS ISSUE Iran’s Growing Iran and the Problem Of Tactical Myopia Weapons Capability By Jim Walsh, Thomas Pickering, And Its Impact and William Luers On Negotiations Using Stronger Sanctions To Increase Negotiating By David Albright and Jacqueline Shire Leverage With Iran By Orde F. Kittrie Winning on Ballistic Missiles but Losing On Cruise: The Missile Proliferation Battle By Dennis M. Gormley IN THE NEWS Scientists See Stockpile Lasting for Decades IAEA Rebukes Iran Over Secret Facility U.S., Russia Poised for Arsenal Cuts Countries Ban Investment In Cluster Munitions U.S. $7.00 A Publication of the Arms Control Association Canada $8.00 www.armscontrol.org Volume 39 • Number 10 December 2009 Arms Control THE SOURCE ON NONPROLIFERATION AND GLOBAL SECURITY TODAY Features Contents 6 15 Iran and the Problem of Tactical Myopia Cover Story Negotiations with Iran will not be easy, but they offer the Iran’s Growing likeliest route to resolving Weapons Capability concerns over that country’s nuclear program. And Its Impact By Jim Walsh, Thomas Pickering, On Negotiations and William Luers By David Albright and Jacqueline Shire 18 Using Stronger Sanctions to Increase Negotiating Leverage With Iran News 30 Europe and the Former Additional sanctions could constrain Iran’s nuclear program Soviet Union and lead to domestic political pressure on the government. • German Nuclear Stance Stirs Debate By Orde F. Kittrie • U.S., Russia Poised for Arsenal Cuts • Russia Plans Changes to Military Doctrine 22 Winning on Ballistic Missiles but Losing 38 The United States and On Cruise: The Missile Proliferation Battle the Americas • Scientists See Stockpile Lasting for Decades In the last several years, cruise missile 40 The Middle East and Africa proliferation has sharply • IAEA Rebukes Iran Over Secret Facility increased. Controls need • IAEA Disputes Syrian Uranium Claims to be tightened. By Dennis M. Gormley 44 The World • U.S. Takes New Stance on Some Issues at UN • Work on Cluster Munitions Extended Again • Countries Ban Investment in Cluster Munitions ARMS CONTROL TODAY ARMS CONTROL TODAY Departments 48 Asia and Australia • U.S. to Send Senior Envoy to Pyongyang 2 Editor’s Note 3 Focus A New START 4 In Brief Dec em 51 Letter to the Editor ber 200 Cover photo: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei 9 (left) and Iranian Permanent Representative to the IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh hold a press conference in Tehran October 4, Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images. 1 Editor’sNOTE he face-off over Iran’s nuclear program has been run- With the new year, there will be some changes in Arms Control ning for more than six years. On the basis of that his- Today. Most of you have received information about the new T tory, it would be foolish to look into the near future and digital edition of the magazine, which is in full color and avail- claim to see a turning point ahead. There have been too many able earlier in the month than the print edition is. (For further false starts and disappointments for that. information, see our Web site, www.armscontrol.org.) Nevertheless, it is difficult to avoid the sense that the deci- In both the digital and print editions, certain parts of Arms sions made in the next several weeks will set the course of Control Today will have a new look. In particular, the table of events for quite a while. In this issue, three articles thought- contents will be larger and more eye-catching, providing more fully address the situation and come to different conclusions information about what awaits you in each issue. on how the United States and its allies should proceed. David We have put a lot of thought and effort into these refine- Albright and Jacqueline Shire provide a technical assessment ments. However, as we implement them, I keep thinking of one of the situation and conclude that, at least in the short term, letter to the editor after The Washington Post put in place similar a form of containment may be the best approach. Orde Kittrie but much more extensive changes in its design. With brevity argues that tough sanctions should be part of the strategy, and and verve that any journalist would have to admire, the Post Jim Walsh, Thomas Pickering, and William Luers stress the reader wrote, “Your opinions still stink. But they are easier to importance of continuing to seek a negotiated solution. read in the new format.” In our final feature, Dennis M. Gormley provides a reminder I take that as a reminder that, although Arms Control Today’s that missile proliferation is an area that should draw policymak- appearance is important, the focus must always be on the quality ers’ attention. A key part of his analysis is that stronger controls of the magazine’s articles. Please continue to let us know how we on the spread of cruise missile capabilities are needed. are doing on that score, and what you think of the new look, by — contacting me at [email protected]. —DANIEL HORNER PUBLISHER AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR BOARD OF DIRECTORS Arms Control Today (ISSN 0196-125X) is Arms Daryl G. Kimball published monthly, except for two bimonth- John Steinbruner ly issues appearing in January/February Control EDITOR DEPUTY DIRECTOR Chairman and July/August. Membership in the Arms Daniel Horner Jeff Abramson Control Association includes a one-year subscription to Arms Control Today at the TODAY MANAGING EDITOR SENIOR FELLOW Avis Bohlen Volume 39 Elisabeth Erickson Greg Thielmann Matthew Bunn following rates: $30 student, $65 individual, $80 international. Non-member subscription Number 10 Anne H. Cahn ASSISTANT EDITOR RESEARCH DIRECTOR rates are: $60 individual, $80 institutional, December 2009 J. Bryan Hehir Brian Creamer Tom Z. Collina with international rates of $75 individual A Publication of the John Isaacs and $85 institutional. Letters to the Editor Arms Control Association INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH ANALYST Catherine Kelleher are welcome and can be sent via e-mail or CORRESPONDENT Peter Crail Michael Klare postal mail. Letters should be under 600 1313 L Street, NW Oliver Meier Kenneth N. Luongo CTBT PROJECT words and may be edited for space. Inter- Suite 130 Jack Mendelsohn pretations, opinions, or conclusions in Arms ASSOCIATE Washington, DC 20005 Janne E. Nolan Meri Lugo Control Today should be understood to be PHONE Hazel R. O’Leary solely those of the authors and should not 202-463-8270 ADMINISTRATIVE John Rhinelander be attributed to the association, its board of FAX ASSISTANT Jeremiah Sullivan directors, officers or other staff members, 202-463-8273 Eric Auner Jonathan Tucker or to organizations and individuals that support the Arms Control Association. E-MAIL Christine Wing FINANCE OFFICER Arms Control Today encourages reprint of 9 [email protected] Merle Newkirk its articles but permission must be granted WEBSITE by the editor. Advertising inquiries may be 200 www.armscontrol.org SCOVILLE FELLOW Cole Harvey made to [email protected]. Postmaster: Send address changes to Arms Control NEW VOICES Today, 1313 L Street, NW, Suite 130, NONPROLIFERATION Washington, D.C. 20005. Periodicals post- December FELLOW age paid at Washington D.C., Suburban, Volha Charnysh MD and Merrifield, VA. ©December 2009, Arms Control Association. ODAY ODAY INTERNS T Luke Champlin Andrew Fisher Anna Hood The Arms Control Association (ACA), founded in 1971, is a nonprofit membership organization dedicated to promoting public understanding and support for effective arms control policies. Through its media and public education programs and its magazine Arms Control Today, ARMS CONTROL ACA provides policymakers, journalists, educators, and the interested public with authoritative information and analyses on arms control, proliferation, and global security issues. 2 By Daryl G. Kimball FOCUS Executive Director A New START fter eight rounds of talks over nine months, U.S. and track the planned nuclear force downsizing on each side. The Russian negotiators are expected to complete work new agreement will carry forward the most essential of START’s A this month on a new strategic nuclear arms reduc- verification and monitoring provisions, which are still needed tion deal that would replace the highly successful 1991 START, for predictability and to provide each side with high confidence which expires Dec. 5. that the other is complying with the terms of the treaty. Lower, verifiable limits on still-bloated U.S. and Russian stra- The New START will also open the way for more compre- tegic nuclear arsenals are long overdue. Today, the United States hensive U.S.-Russian arms reduction talks beginning next year, and Russia each deploy more than 2,000 strategic warheads, which the Obama administration says should address all types of most of which exist only to deter a massive nuclear attack by nuclear warheads: deployed and nondeployed; strategic and non- the other. No other country possesses more than 300 nuclear strategic. It would also help Washington win broader internation- warheads, and China currently has fewer than 30 nuclear-armed al support for measures to strengthen the beleaguered nuclear missiles capable of striking the continental United States. Nonproliferation Treaty at the May 2010 review conference. As President Barack Obama, Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Unfortunately, a few are already trying to undermine sup- Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), and many prominent national security port for the New START before it arrives. Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) leaders have argued, deeper U.S. erroneously suggested in a Nov. and Russian strategic nuclear reduc- Deeper U.S. and Russian 21 statement “that there had been tions are possible and prudent. virtually no talk…of what happens The New START deal is particu- strategic nuclear after December 5 and prior to the larly important because past Demo- possible entry into force of the fol- cratic and Republican administra- reductions are possible low-on agreement.” Actually, the tions have squandered opportuni- two sides have been discussing the ties to conclude meaningful, legally and prudent.