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Operational Environment Assessment: Iran

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Operational Environment Assessment: Iran OEA 5: Iran April 2010 Operational Environment Assessment: Iran TRADOC G2 TRADOC Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA)-Threats Operational Environment Assessment (OEA) Team Ft. Leavenworth, KS DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This page intentionally left blank. TRADOC G-2 TRISA-THREATS OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT TEAM INTRODUCTION This page intentionally left blank. UNCLASSIFIED OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT TEAM PURPOSE An operational environment is the “composite of the conditions, circumstances, and influences that affect the employment of capabilities and bear on the decisions of commanders.”(JP 3-0) The purpose of an operational environment assessment (OEA) is twofold. First, an assessment provides a detailed description and analysis of an operational environment (OE); secondly, it presents a methodology for the application of the OE framework1 to any real-world OE. The OEA framework is an analytical construct developed to explore the complex and ever-changing combination of conditions, circumstances, and influences that affect real-world military operations within a given OE. The framework provides a method for describing the conditions of military operations and capabilities, and is applicable across leader development, education and training environments as well as real-world contingency planning or pre-deployment exercises. OEAs are intended to support the Army training community in the development and execution of mission rehearsal exercises (MRXs), training exercises/events and general cultural awareness training. This OEA, focused on Iran, presents a discussion of the PMESII-PT variables, a trends analysis across variables and an event list of real-world events from Iran. Every OE is different. Each one is dynamic, multi-dimensional and has its own degree of complexity. To better understand the uniqueness of each OE, one needs to study and understand the variables, their synergy and their overall influences on military operations. An OEA helps define the OE’s nature and characteristics and seeks to present an understanding of the variables and their impact across the OE. By defining the makeup of these variables as they relate to a specific OE, you are defining the nature and characteristics of that environment. Each OEA discusses the political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure, physical environment and time (PMESII-PT) variables and their related impacts, as well as analyzing potential trends across the specific OE being analyzed. The analysis presented in this OEA is based upon open-source research and all information contained herein is UNCLASSIFIED. This OEA is not an official intelligence assessment or intelligence product; nor should it be used in such a manner. OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT An OEA is composed of three key sections. Each section is developed to provide a comprehensive and complimentary look at the variables as they apply to Iran. The three sections are: 1) Variables of the OE, 2) Trends Analysis and 3) Events List. SECTION 1: VARIABLES OF THE OE This section provides a detailed look at the OE in terms of the PMESII-PT variables. The discussion will focus of the key dimensions of each variable as well as each variable’s operational impacts. The variables are not limited to simply providing an understanding of an OE; they also represent a compendium of conditions that require management within an OE. Commanders and Soldiers must be prepared to understand and contend with the variables and their impacts. 1 See TRADOC G2, Operational Environment 2009-2025. https://dcsint- threats.leavenworth.army.mil/COE/default.aspx Iranian OEA – Introduction April 2010 I-1 UNCLASSIFIED OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT TEAM Each variable is populated with information gathered from various unclassified sources. Sources include government research reports, academic analysis, and key think-tank publications. The variables discussed are: Political: The political variable describes the distribution of responsibilities and power at all levels of governance – formally constituted authorities as well as informal or covert political powers. Military: The military variable explores the military and/or paramilitary capabilities of all relevant actors (enemy, friendly, and neutral) in a given OE. Economic: The economic variable encompasses individual and group behaviors related to producing, distributing, and consuming resources. Social: The social variable describes the cultural, religious, and ethnic makeup within an OE and the beliefs, values, customs and behaviors associated with the OE. Information: The information variable describes the nature, scope, characteristics, and effects of individuals, organizations, and systems that collect, process, manipulate, disseminate, or act on information. Infrastructure: Infrastructure is composed of the basic facilities, services, and installations needed for the functioning of a community or society. Physical Environment: The physical environment variable includes the geography and man-made structures as well as the climate and weather in the area of operations. Time: The time variable describes the timing and duration of activities, events, or conditions within an OE, as well as how the timing and duration are perceived by various actors in the OE. SECTION 2: TRENDS ANALYSIS This section provides a look at possible near-term trends across the OE as they apply to each variable. The purpose is to provide the user with a set of near-term expectations across each variable. Trends analysis can be used to support training events and exercise design. SECTION 3: EVENTS LIST This section provides a list of real world events which have recently occurred in Iran. The purpose of the list is to provide the reader with specific example of how the variable “plays out” in Iran. Events from the list may be used to aid scenario development or the scripting of events in support of scenarios. POINTS OF CONTACT AND PRODUCT LOCATION Comments, suggestions and feedback are welcome on this OEA. Please send comments to [email protected]. All OEAs and related products are posted on the following two sites: TRADOC G2, TRISA-Threats website at https://dcsint-threats.leavenworth.army.mil/default.aspx (AKO login required for BCKS) AKO at https://www.us.army.mil/suite/files/11318389 Additional OEAs have been developed for the following OEs: OEA 1: Iraq OEA 2: Afghanistan OEA 3: North Korea Iranian OEA – Introduction April 2010 I-2 UNCLASSIFIED OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT TEAM OEA 6: Horn of Africa OEA 7: Pakistan (PowerPoint version only) Iranian OEA – Introduction April 2010 I-3 This page intentionally left blank. TRADOC G-2 TRISA-THREATS OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT TEAM S E C T I O N 1 : VARIABLES OF THE OE This page intentionally left blank. TRADOC G-2 TRISA-THREATS OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT TEAM POLITICAL This page intentionally left blank. UNCLASSIFIED OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT TEAM Political The political variable describes the distribution of responsibility and power at all levels of governance – formally constituted authorities, as well as informal or covert political powers. ―The wave of the Islamic Revolution will soon reach the entire world.‖ President-Elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, June 2005 KEY FACTS: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is Iran‘s most powerful figure who gives direction to political and social life in Iran through an array of patronage and direct control. Khamenei‘s belief in Iran‘s power and his protection of Iranian sovereignty creates in him an aversion to compromise. Iran uses a broad range of security forces (professional and volunteer) to enforce Iranian state control and ensure clerical superiority in civil society. Any appearance of a liberal, representative society is misleading due to limitations built into the governing structure which prevents it from having any real influence over the clerical authority. Iran conducts a realpolitik approach to foreign policy. It exhorts Shia Islamist ideals, but is not averse to working with non-Shia elements to achieve its goals. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) plays a large role in Iranian society due to its network of members and ex-members in positions of prominence across the country. Iranians are very proud of their heritage, and believe it gives them the legitimacy for an assertive role in Middle Eastern affairs. OPERATIONAL IMPACTS OF THE POLITICAL VARIABLE IN THE OE: Outsiders should not mistake internal frustration for a Westernization movement within Iran. As a whole, the country remains suspicious of Western views and wary of Western agendas. For Iran‘s minorities, their struggle with the central government is an effort to escape a ―second class‖ citizen‘s status. Iranians treat foreign involvement with their internal affairs as a residue of colonialization, and will resist any attempts at such. Due to their presumptive belief in their leadership in the Middle East, Iranians feel entitled to possess a nuclear capability. President Ahmadinejad gains valuable support from the rural element of the population due to his populist polices, and garners significant opposition from more urban regions. POLITICAL OVERVIEW: A disparate movement overthrew the Shah in 1979. The diverse groups represented a wide range of ideological perspectives that included socialists, the Islamic left, democrats, and the Islamic right. As the dust settled after the 1979 Revolution,
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