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Natural Catastrophes in South Africa

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Natural Catastrophes in South Africa University of Pretoria etd A Framework for Modelling Losses arising from Natural Catastrophes in South Africa Roger R Grobler NATURALUni CveATASTROPHESrsity of Pre INto SrOUTHia et dAFRICA Synopsis Property insurance covers policyholders against losses arising out of a wide range of occurrences. Premiums are calculated by taking into account estimates of the frequency and the severity of the losses. Estimating the frequency and severity arising from claims caused by natural catastrophes is difficult, due to the relatively low frequency of natural catastrophes, and the unavailability of historical catastrophe claims data. The accumulation of a large number of claims in the geographical area affected by the catastrophe is of particular interest to insurers and reinsurers alike. This dissertation discusses the fundamental issues underlying the modelling insurance losses from natural catastrophes in South Africa. A suggestion is given of the key parameters that need to be taken into account, and a framework is given for models describing losses arising from floods, hail and tornadoes. Sinopsis Eiendom versekering beskerm polishouers teen verliese veroorsaak deur ‘n wye verskeidenheid van moontlike oorsake. Premies word bereken deur die frekwensie en quantum van eise te beraam. Die beraming van die frekwensie en quantum van eise veroorsaak deur natuurlike katastrofes is besonder moeilik, weens onder andere die relatiewe lae frekwensie van natuurlike katastrofes, en die gebrek aan historiese data. Die akkumulasie van eise in ‘n geografiese area getref deur ‘n natuurlike katastrofe is van besondere belang vir beide versekeraars en herversekeraars. Die verhandeling bespreek die onderliggende beginsels van die modellering van versekeringsverliese veroorsaak deur natuurlike katastrofes in Suid Afrika. Die sleutel parameters word voorgestel, en ‘n raamwerk word gegee vir modelle wat die verliese veroorsaak deur vloede, hael en tornadoes beskryf. PAGE 2 University of Pretoria etd Table of Contents 1. PREAMBLE: THE INITIATIVE FOR THE RESEARCH ...................................................6 2. WHAT IS A CATASTROPHE?................................................................................................7 2.1 DEFINITIONS ............................................................................................................................. 7 2.2 CATACLYSMS............................................................................................................................ 7 2.3 MODERN DAY CATASTROPHES .................................................................................................. 9 3. SCOPE OF THIS RESEARCH...............................................................................................11 4. THE RESULTS PRESENTED IN THIS DISSERTATION.................................................12 5. CATASTROPHES....................................................................................................................13 5.1 CATASTROPHES IN SOUTH AFRICA.......................................................................................... 13 5.1.1 Tropical cyclone...........................................................................................................19 5.1.2 Flooding .......................................................................................................................20 5.1.3 Tornadoes.....................................................................................................................20 5.1.4 Hailstorms ....................................................................................................................20 5.2 HAZARDS CAUSING CATASTROPHES........................................................................................ 20 5.3 CATASTROPHES TO BE ASSESSED IN THIS STUDY ..................................................................... 21 6. EXPOSURE DATABASE........................................................................................................24 6.1 WHAT IS AN EXPOSURE DATABASE?........................................................................................ 24 6.2 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY IN SOUTH AFRICA............................................................................. 25 6.2.1 ENPAT..........................................................................................................................25 6.2.2 Central Statistical Services (CSS) ................................................................................25 6.2.3 Residential exposure database .....................................................................................30 6.3 MAPS ...................................................................................................................................... 33 6.3.1 Exposure Density Map of South Africa ........................................................................33 6.3.2 Exposure Density Map of Gauteng and Surroundings.................................................34 6.3.3 Exposure Density Map of Cape Town and Surroundings ............................................35 NATURALUni CveATASTROPHESrsity of Pre INto SrOUTHia et dAFRICA 7. FLOODING...............................................................................................................................36 7.1 WHAT IS A FLOOD? ................................................................................................................. 36 7.2 WHERE DOES WATER FLOW TO?.............................................................................................. 38 7.3 HOW MUCH RAIN CAUSES A FLOOD? ....................................................................................... 39 7.4 BURSTING BANKS ................................................................................................................... 39 7.5 HOW BIG IS A BIG FLOOD? ....................................................................................................... 41 7.5.1 Probabilistic methods...................................................................................................42 7.5.2 Deterministic methods ..................................................................................................43 7.5.3 Empirical methods........................................................................................................44 7.6 EXPOSURE IN THE AREA .......................................................................................................... 48 7.6.1 The problems ................................................................................................................48 7.6.2 What data is available? ................................................................................................50 7.7 FLOOD-PRODUCING WEATHER SYSTEMS ................................................................................. 51 7.7.1 Cut-off low and ridging high pressure systems ............................................................51 7.7.2 Large scale, near stationary wave patterns..................................................................51 7.7.3 Intense cyclone mid-latitude systems............................................................................52 7.7.4 Squall lines, mesoscale convective systems ..................................................................52 7.7.5 Tropical cyclones..........................................................................................................52 7.8 FINDINGS OF THE ANALYSIS .................................................................................................... 52 7.8.1 Approaches...................................................................................................................53 7.8.2 Findings........................................................................................................................54 7.8.3 Further work.................................................................................................................62 7.8.4 Map of Area of Flood Investigation .............................................................................63 8. EARTHQUAKE........................................................................................................................64 9. CYCLONE ................................................................................................................................67 9.1 NATURE OF THE STORM........................................................................................................... 67 9.2 THE INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE ............................................................................... 68 9.3 DAMAGE CAUSED.................................................................................................................... 69 9.4 MAP OF AREAS EXPOSED TO CYCLONE DAMAGE ................................................................... 71 PAGE 4 NATURALUni CveATASTROPHESrsity of Pre INto SrOUTHia et dAFRICA 10. TORNADOES ...........................................................................................................................72 10.1 DATA USED........................................................................................................................ 72 10.2 SIMULATION OF EXPERIENCE.............................................................................................. 73 11. HAIL STORMS ........................................................................................................................78 12. COMPLETION
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