PORTSPorts DURBAN : STATUS QUO
Slide 79
PORTSPorts DURBAN : CURRENT LAYOUT
Source: TNPA Slide 80 PORTSPorts DURBAN : FUTURE LAYOUT
Source: TNPA Slide 81
PORTSPorts DURBAN : LONG TERM POTENTIAL
Source: TNPA Slide 82 PORTSPorts DURBAN AIRPORT SITE : STATUS QUO
Slide 83
PORTSPorts DURBAN AIRPORT SITE : LONG TERM POTENTIAL
Source: TNPA Slide 84 Ports INTEGRATED PORT – CITY PLANS
INTEGRATED LONG-TERM PORT, RAIL, ROAD AND LAND-USE PLAN
Slide 85
PORTS DURBAN PROJECT SENSITIVITY
LOW GROWTH : MEGA TERMINAL REQUIRED IN 2024 MEDIUM GROWTH : MEGA TERMINAL REQUIRED IN 2019 HIGH GROWTH : MEGA TERMINAL REQUIRED IN 2017
LOW GROWTH : 2010 to 2040 : 5% MEDIUM GROWTH : 2010 to 2020 : 8%, 2021 to 2030 : 6%, 2031 to 2040 : 4% HIGH GROWTH : 2010 to 2020 : 10%, 2021 to 2030 : 8%, 2031 to 2040 : 6%
Slide 86 PORTSPorts PORT OF RICHARDS BAY
Slide 87
PORTSPorts RICHARDS BAY DEMAND FORECAST 2009
120 000 000
100 000 000
80 000 000
60 000 000
40 000 000
20 000 000
Containers Vehicles Break Bulk Dry Bulk Liquid Bulk
2008/09 2013/14 2037/38
Source: Corporate Plan, TCP Slide 88 PORTSPorts RICHARDS BAY : STATUS QUO
Slide 89
PORTSPorts RICHARDS BAY : CURRENT LAYOUT
Source: TNPA Slide 90 PORTSPorts RICHARDS BAY : FUTURE LAYOUT
Source: TNPA Slide 91
PORTSPorts RICHARDS BAY : LONG TERM POTENTIAL
Source: TNPA Slide 92 JOH-TRX032- 20080715-SS-X1
National Infrastructure Plan PIPELINES
June 2009
Pipelines Future National Pipeline Network
Indicative alignments only
Source: Transnet Pipelines Slide 95 Pipelines Inland Demand, the NMPP and the Bridging Plan
* Timeline adjustment submitted to NERSA for consideration 32 NMPP Phase 3 14.0 Bnl/annum NMPP Phase 2 Bridging Plan NMPP capacity 28 12.2 Bnl/annum capacity
NMPP Phase 1 24 8.7 Bnl/annum capacity
Latest 20 Demand Spare capacity Forecast
16 Pipeline Capacity Utilised Road & Rail Supply
12 Pipeline Capacity Utilised Permanent Road & Rail Supply
Billion Litres per Annum per Annum perLitres Litres BillionBillion 8
Note: 4 NMPP future Phases required Phase 4 - 2023 - 17.5 Bnl/ann Phase 5 - 2031 - 26.2 Bnl/ann 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
(Latest Est GDP-1) Inland supply Road + Rail Supply Pipeline capacity TPL Inland Supply
Source: Transnet Pipelines Slide 96
Pipelines Addressable Fuels Demand Forecast
Product 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 18/19 23/24 28/29 33/34 Crude Oil (b.l) 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 Refined (b.l) 14.5 14.0 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.8 18.7 21.3 26.3 31.3 AvTur (b.l) 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.7 3 Gas (cub. m m) 501.8 589.7 643.9 733.7 804.9 848.1 936.4 1033.8 1141.4 1260.2
Inland Crude Oil Inland Refined Products
7.0 35.0 Pipeline capacity (6,8 blpa) 30.0 6.0 28 blpa
25.0 5.0 Refinery capacity (5,6 blpa) 22 blpa NMPP- 4.0 20.0
3.0 15.0
2.0 10.0
1.0 5.0
Capacity Supply and Demand (billion litres pa) Capacity Supply and Demand (billion litres pa) New Multi Product 0.0 0.0 Pipeline expected to provide buffer capacity Inland4.0 Aviation Turbine Fuel GasInland Refined Products for all products 1400 3.5 1180mpa 1200 3.0 1000 885m pa 2.5 1,8 blpa 800 2.0 6803 mpa
1.5 600
1.0 400
0.5 200 0.0 Demand 0 Capacity Slide 97 Rail Plan Update:
•• Branchlines •• Rail Gauge •• Overview of regional plans •• Waterberg •• Gauteng Intermodal Terminals
Rail: Network Status Quo Branch Lines Strategy
The railway network is classified into
The Core Network (about 12 800 km)
Branch lines (about 7 300 km) Transnet’s branch lines strategy provides for concessioning to private operators Approval has been granted by the Minister of Public Enterprises in terms of the Public Finance Management Act, 1999. Transnet is currently
doing feasibility studies to determine the viability of each concession opportunity for private operators; and
in discussions with the NDOT to finalise a sustainability plan for the branch lines strategy, in line with government policy for: Rural development; Moving more freight off roads and on to rail; Reducing freight logistics costs; Promoting private sector participation in rail operations, and Increasing road and rail safety.
Source: Transnet Group Policy Slide 104 Rail: Network Status Quo Network Classification
Classification Rationale / Criteria Basic core Port- Rail Corridor 12,801 km Characterised by: (63.8% of the 1. Freight focus Port Interconnect total network 2. Blockloads distance of 3. Hub to hub Cross-border Interconnect 20,079 km) 4. Corridors Extended core 5. Rail, port and pipeline High volume Feeder connectivity Includes 74 km 6. Intermodalism Network operational flexibility of closed line 7. Operational flexibility
Future Network Expansion Provision
Branch line 3,350 km Characterised by: Closed Lines (16.7%) 1. Multi-use potential 2. Relatively low volumes 874 km 3. Distinct train configuration Lifted Lines (not included) 4. Small scale operations 5. Distinct Infrastructure Profile 6. Multiple origin-destinations Low volume active branch line 3,928 km (19.6%) High volume active branch line
Source: Transnet Group Planning / Transnet Freight Rail Slide 105
Rail: Network Status Quo Core Network
Port- Rail Corridor Zimbabwe Port Interconnect Musina
Botswana Cross-border Interconnect Louis Trichardt Groenbult Lephalale Mozambique High volume Feeder Polokwane Phalaborwa
Vaalwater Zebediela Network operational flexibility Steelpoort Modimolle
Nelspruit Future Network Expansion Komatipoort Mafikeng Witbank Kaapmuiden
Ermelo SWAZILAND Vryburg Vereeniging Namibia Hotazel Klerksdorp Pudimoe
Kroonstad Warden Vryheid Nakop Sishen Upington Veertien Strome Virginia Harrismith Bethlehem Kimberley Ladysmith Kakamas Douglas Bloemfontein Richards Bay Koffiefontein Belmont LESOTHO Pietermaritzburg Durban
Springfontein
De Aar Aliwal North Harding Sakrivier Port Shepstone Maclear Noupoort Calvinia Rosmead Hutchinson Umtata Hofmeyer Queenstown
Beaufort West Blaney Klipplaat Cookhouse Saldanha East London Alicedale
Worcester Oudtshoorn Port Alfred Ngqura Cape Town Knysna Port Elizabeth Mosselbaai
Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 106 Rail: Network Status Quo Branch Line Network
Closed Lines Zimbabwe Musina Lifted Lines Botswana Louis Trichardt Low volume active branch line Groenbult Lephalale Mozambique Polokwane Phalaborwa
Vaalwater High volume active branch line Zebediela Steelpoort Middelwit Modimolle Marble Hall
Nelspruit Komatipoort Witbank
Mafikeng Kaapmuiden
Vermaas Ermelo SWAZILAND Ottosdal Vereeniging Vryburg Namibia Hotazel Klerksdorp Pudimoe Makwassie Vrede Kroonstad Vryheid Nakop Sishen Warden
Upington Veertien Strome Virginia Harrismith Bethlehem Kimberley Ladysmith Kakamas Douglas Bloemfontein Richards Bay
Koffiefontein Belmont LESOTHO Pietermaritzburg Durban Franklin Springfontein Harding De Aar Aliwal North Sakrivier Port Shepstone Maclear Noupoort Calvinia Rosmead Hutchinson Umtata Hofmeyer Queenstown
Beaufort West
Porterville Klipplaat Cookhouse Saldanha Blaney East London Prince Alfred Hamlet Alicedale Oudtshoorn Worcester Port Alfred Ngqura Cape Town Port Elizabeth Knysna Mosselbaai
Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 107
Rail Gauge What is rail gauge?
1065/7 MM Cape gauge
2700 mm
Standard gauge 1435 MM
3070 mm
Rail gauge is the distance between the inner sides of the two parallel rails Standard Gauge is set at 1435mm Cape Gauge is set at 1065/7mm Narrow Gauge is typically less than 700mm (Not many in SA)
Slide 109 Rail Gauge Viability/Opportunity for conversion from Cape Gauge to Standard Gauge
• Gauge conversion effects every element of a railway system ie. infrastructure, rolling stock, ancillary DoT NATMAP Rail Gauge Report 2010: equipment, sidings, ports, superstructures etc. “Finding 17. Converting the gauge of the whole or portion of the existing Transnet narrow gauge • Conversion from Cape gauge to Standard gauge has network to standard gauge is not economically greatest benefits for passenger rail as it supports higher justifiable in South Africa” speed trains versus freight rail where high speed is not “Recommendation c. Use every logical required. opportunity to tap into the advantages presented by this technology whilst keeping the masterplan • Capital investment to convert existing network: roughly network in mind “ R35m per km of single line for base infrastructure only, “Recommendation d. Evaluate each such excluding major structures (eg bridges), rolling stock, opportunity on its individual merits and then equipment, loading/off -loading facilities etc . build it in standard gauge if economically viable “
• Est. total cost in 2007 of R767bn (excluding impact on operations during construction): Transnet fully supports this view.
• Economic benefit of this scale of investment would require comprehensive system-wide cost benefit Transnet Freight Rail is a signatory analysis. The entire Southern African region is to the African Union resolution on connected on Cape gauge. rail gauge and has thereby committed to reviewing the • Opportunities for introduction of standard gauge in the feasibility of conversion to Standard South African rail network exists where new isolated rail Gauge for all new railway projects. corridors are being considered eg. proposed high speed rail link between Durban and Johannesburg.
Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 110
Rail Gauge Freight Speed
• Intercity passenger trains need to run at high speed (300 km/h +) to compete with airways • For freight, throughput time (Cycle- or Turnaround Time) is more important than speed • High speed will not necessarily improve Throughput Time but will increase the cost of operations • Freight speed on Cape Gauge is similar to international best practice on standard gauge • Speed for Freight trains are typically not limited by gauge constraints but is a derivative of gradients, curvature, train authorization systems and crossings instead • Predictability and consistency is essential for competitive rail freight services • Time-sensitive goods can successfully be transported by high speed passenger trains but forms a small component of national freight demand
AVERAGE OPERATING SPEED
Class I Railways mph km/h
BNSF 23.1 38.5
Canadian National 24.9 41.5
Canadian Pacific 26.4 44.0
CSX Transportation 21.3 35.5
Norfolk Southern 21.8 36.3
Union Pacific 20.8 34.7
Source: Association of American Railroads Source: PRTS Report NATMAP 2010
Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 111 Rail Development Plans Ore Line
Hotazel
Sishen Nakop Upington
Belmont
Halfweg De Aar
Bitterfontein
Hutchinson
Beaufort West Saldanha
Kalbaskraal Worcester Cape Town Dal Josafat Mossel Bay
Phase Intervention Motivation Needed by 19 passing loops extended (4.4km) with OHTE & Signalling To provide increased operational capacity Phase 1B Loop 7 replaced by loop 7A to facilitate more efficient operations to achieve 47Mtpa 2010 Port link line To provide increased operational capacity Phase 1C Introduce a direct link from Postmasburg to achieve 60Mtpa 2013 Intermediate loops (4,4 km) with OHTE & Signalling Telecommunication system extensions Track work for Salkor and yard automation Service Lines for Tippler 3 Maintenance Facilities and support equipment Condition Monitoring Equipment To provide increased operational capacity Phase 2A Power Upgrade to achieve 80Mtpa 2014 9 remaining loops (4,4 km) with OHTE & Signalling Telecommunication system extensions Track work for Salkor and yard automation Service Lines for Tippler 4 Maintenance Facilities and support equipment Condition Monitoring Equipment To provide increased operational capacity Phase 2B Power Upgrade to achieve 105Mtpa 2015
Slide 127
Rail Development Plans Western and Southern Cape
Hotazel
Sishen Nakop Upington
Kimberley
Belmont
Halfweg
De Aar
Bitterfontein Noupoort Hutchinson Rosmead
Beaufort West Saldanha
Kalbaskraal Worcester Cape Town Dal Josafat Mossel Bay
Location Intervention Principle Motivation Needed by Relocate washing facility to Bellville 2 Operational Simplification 2012 Bellville Belcon Optimise yard at Belcon 2 If Belcon development continues 2019 Kraaifontein to Re-signalling fully directional 2 Out dated train control 2014 Bellville with CTC Wellington to Re-signal 2 Out dated train control 2014 Kraaifontein
Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 128 Rail Development Plans Eastern Cape and Central Port System
Houtheuwel
Hotazel Klerksdorp Hotazel – P. E. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 Arlington Sishen Slots Ops
Veertien Strome Hotazel - Mamathwane 6 45% 40% 42% 51% 54% 56% 58% 60% 63% 66% 68% 71% 74% 77% 80% 83% 87% 90% 94% 97% 101% 104% 108% 112% 116% 120% 124% 128% 132% 137% 141% Bethlehem Mamathwane - Sishen 5 83% 74% 76% 88% 93% 97% 100% 105% 111% 114% 118% 123% 128% 133% 139% 145% 152% 159% 165% 172% 179% 187% 195% 203% 211% 219% 228% 237% 247% 256% 265% Kimberley Sishen - Lohatlha 12 86% 78% 71% 79% 84% 81% 85% 89% 94% 97% 101% 105% 111% 117% 124% 133% 137% 141% 145% 149% 153% 157% 162% 167% 171% 176% 181% 187% 192% 198% 203% 73% 67% 61% 67% 71% 67% 70% 74% 78% 80% 84% 87% 92% 97% 104% 112% 115% 118% 121% 125% 128% 132% 135% 139% 143% 147% 151% 156% 161% 165% 170% Bloemfontein Lohatlha - Beeshoek 14 Beeshoek - Postmasburg 14 71% 64% 56% 62% 66% 69% 72% 75% 79% 82% 86% 90% 94% 100% 107% 115% 118% 122% 125% 128% 131% 135% 139% 143% 147% 151% 155% 160% 164% 169% 173% Maseru Belmont Postmasburg - Groenwater 11 88% 79% 70% 77% 82% 85% 89% 93% 98% 101% 106% 111% 117% 124% 132% 142% 146% 150% 154% 158% 163% 167% 172% 177% 181% 186% 192% 197% 203% 209% 214% Groenwater - Lime Acres 17 58% 52% 47% 52% 56% 58% 60% 63% 66% 69% 72% 75% 79% 83% 89% 95% 98% 101% 103% 106% 109% 112% 115% 119% 122% 125% 129% 133% 136% 140% 144% LESOTHO Lime Acres - Silverstreams 12 100% 90% 79% 87% 93% 97% 101% 105% 111% 115% 120% 125% 132% 140% 148% 159% 164% 169% 174% 180% 185% 191% 198% 204% 210% 217% 224% 232% 240% 248% 256% Springfontein Silverstreams - Ulco 12 108% 97% 85% 94% 100% 104% 108% 113% 119% 123% 129% 135% 142% 150% 159% 170% 176% 181% 187% 193% 199% 206% 213% 220% 227% 235% 243% 251% 260% 269% 278% Ulco - Barkly West 12 108% 97% 85% 93% 99% 103% 107% 112% 118% 122% 128% 134% 141% 149% 158% 169% 175% 180% 186% 192% 198% 205% 212% 219% 226% 233% 241% 250% 258% 267% 276% De Aar Barkly West - Fieldsview 12 108% 97% 85% 93% 99% 104% 108% 113% 118% 123% 128% 134% 141% 149% 159% 169% 175% 181% 186% 192% 198% 205% 212% 219% 226% 234% 242% 250% 259% 267% 276% Fieldsview - Kamfersdam 21 9% 9% 8% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 13% 13% 14% 15% 15% 16% 17% 17% 18% 19% 19% 20% 20% 21% 22% 22% 23% 24% 24% 25% 26% 27% 27% Noupoort De Aar - Belmont 7 96% 86% 73% 87% 92% 97% 100% 105% 111% 116% 122% 129% 137% 144% 151% 158% 166% 174% 183% 192% 201% 211% 221% 231% 243% 254% 267% 280% 293% 308% 323% Hutchinson Belmont - Beaconsfield 7 98% 88% 74% 88% 94% 98% 102% 107% 113% 118% 124% 131% 139% 146% 153% 161% 168% 177% 185% 194% 203% 213% 223% 234% 245% 257% 270% 283% 296% 311% 326% Rosmead Beaconsfield - Kamfersdam 27 27% 24% 21% 23% 25% 26% 27% 28% 30% 31% 33% 35% 37% 38% 41% 43% 45% 47% 49% 52% 55% 58% 61% 64% 67% 71% 74% 78% 83% 87% 92% Queenstown Kamfersdam - MacFarlane 72 7% 7% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 22% 23% 25% 26% De Aar - Noupoort 7 9 8 % 5 6 % 5 0 % 6 1 % 6 5 % 6 8 % 7 0 % 7 4 % 7 8 % 8 2 % 8 6 % 9 1 % 9 6 % 1 01 % 1 07 % 1 1 2 % 1 1 7 % 1 2 3 % 1 2 9 % 1 3 5 % 1 4 2 % 1 4 8 % 1 5 5 % 1 6 3 % 1 7 0% 1 7 8 % 1 8 7 % 1 9 5 % 2 04 % 2 1 4 % 2 2 4 %
Noupoort - Cookhouse 8 8 9 % 5 0 % 4 5 % 5 5 % 5 9 % 6 2 % 6 3 % 6 7 % 7 0 % 7 4 % 7 8 % 8 2 % 8 7 % 9 1 % 9 6 % 1 0 0% 1 05 % 1 1 0% 1 1 5 % 1 2 0% 1 2 6 % 1 3 1 % 1 3 7 % 1 4 3 % 1 5 0% 1 5 6 % 1 6 3 % 1 7 1 % 1 7 8 % 1 8 6 % 1 9 4 % Beaufort West Cookhouse Blaney Cookhouse - Alicedale 7 1 08 % 5 2 % 4 9 % 6 4 % 6 7 % 7 1 % 7 2 % 7 6 % 8 0 % 8 4 % 8 8 % 9 2 % 9 7 % 1 01 % 1 06 % 1 1 0% 1 1 5 % 1 1 9 % 1 2 4 % 1 2 9 % 1 3 4 % 1 3 8 % 1 4 4 % 1 4 9 % 1 5 4 % 1 6 0% 1 6 6 % 1 7 2 % 1 7 8 % 1 8 4 % 1 9 1 % Alicedale - Addo 7 1 08 % 5 2 % 4 9 % 6 4 % 6 7 % 7 0 % 7 2 % 7 6 % 8 0 % 8 4 % 8 8 % 9 2 % 9 7 % 1 01 % 1 06 % 1 1 0% 1 1 5 % 1 1 9 % 1 2 4 % 1 2 8 % 1 3 3 % 1 3 8 % 1 4 3 % 1 4 9 % 1 5 4 % 1 6 0% 1 6 6 % 1 7 2 % 1 7 8 % 1 8 4 % 1 9 1 %
Alicedale 2 7 % 1 9 % 1 6 % 1 8 % 1 9 % 2 0 % 2 1 % 2 2 % 2 3 % 2 4 % 2 5 % 2 7 % 2 9 % 3 0 % 3 2 % 3 4 % 3 5 % 3 7 % 3 9 % 4 1 % 4 3 % 4 6 % 4 8 % 5 1 % 5 4 % 5 6 % 5 9 % 6 3 % 6 6 % 7 0 % 7 3 % East London Addo - Coega 26 Coega - Swartkops 26 2 1 % 1 9 % 1 6 % 1 8 % 1 9 % 2 0 % 2 1 % 2 2 % 1 3 % 1 4 % 1 5 % 1 6 % 1 7 % 1 8 % 1 9 % 2 0 % 2 2 % 2 3 % 2 5 % 2 6 % 2 8 % 3 0 % 3 2 % 3 4 % 3 6 % 3 8 % 4 1 % 4 4 % 4 7 % 5 0 % 5 3 % Ngqura Swartkops - New Brighton 26 1 7 % 1 5 % 1 3 % 1 5 % 1 6 % 1 7 % 1 7 % 1 8 % 9 % 1 0 % 1 0 % 1 1 % 1 1 % 1 2 % 1 3 % 1 3 % 1 4 % 1 5 % 1 6 % 1 7 % 1 8 % 1 9 % 2 0 % 2 2 % 2 3 % 2 4 % 2 6 % 2 8 % 2 9 % 3 1 % 3 3 % New Brighton - Algoabaai 26 1 3 % 1 2 % 1 0 % 1 3 % 1 3 % 1 4 % 1 4 % 1 5 % 6 % 6 % 7 % 7 % 8 % 8 % 9 % 9 % 1 0 % 1 1 % 1 1 % 1 2 % 1 3 % 1 4 % 1 5 % 1 6 % 1 7 % 1 8 % 1 9 % 2 1 % 2 2 % 2 4 % 2 5 % Port Elizabeth Algoabaai - Port Elizabeth 26 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 2 %
Location Intervention Needed Hotazel to Sishen Two new substations 2021
Hotazel to Kimberley Extension of 5 passing loops to accommodate long trains, with 3k.V D.C OHTE, and CTC signalling 2019 OHTE upgrades, signalling renewal, 3 substations, 25kV upgrade from hotazel to Kimberley, Power supply Hotazel to Kimberley upgrade, loco run round at Beaconsfield, Changeover yard at Warrenton 2013
Hotazel to Kimberley Double remaining single (283km) line sections. Electrify with 3k.V D.C OHTE, and provide CTC signalling 2022 Extension of short Crossing Loops, doubling of OHTE, upgrade signalling and power supply, 164km track Kimberley to De Aar reinstatement to provide full double line 2019
De Aar to Cookhouse Extension of crossing loops, New traction substations, Eskom power supply 2021 Cookhouse to Addo Extension of all short passing loops 2027 PE + Ngqura Full rationalisation of arrival and departure yards (Operational Simplification) 2017
Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 129
Rail Development Plans NATCOR
Nelspruit Pyramid Belfast Komatiepoort Greenview Derwent Kaapmuiden Machadadorp Wesrand Ogies Zesfontein “Dalo” Springs Ermelo SWAZILAND Rietvallei Houtheuwel Cachet
Arlington Vryheid
Harrismith Glencoe Bethlehem Danskraal Empangeni Richards Bay Stanger Maseru
LESOTHO Pietermaritzburg Booth Durban
Port Shepstone
Location Intervention Needed by
Kaydale to Palfmord Implement CTC Signal infill scheme to reduce headway to approximately 8mins 2028
Palmford to Ennersdale Implement CTC Signal infill scheme to reduce headway to approximately 8mins 2031
Ennersdale to Pietermaritzburg Implement CTC Signal infill scheme to reduce headway to approximately 8mins 2028 Provide additional (3rd line) electrified with 3kV D.C traction and signalled with Kaydale to Pietermaritzburg CTC system 2035
Bayhead to Cato Ridge New Bypass 2030
Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 131 Rail Development Plans RICHCOR
Nelspruit Pyramid Belfast Komatiepoort Greenview Derwent Kaapmuiden Machadadorp Wesrand Ogies Zesfontein “Dalo” Springs Ermelo SWAZILAND Rietvallei Houtheuwel Cachet
Arlington Vryheid
Harrismith Glencoe Bethlehem Danskraal Empangeni Richards Bay Stanger Maseru
LESOTHO Pietermaritzburg Booth Durban
Port Shepstone
Location Intervention Needed by All Dynamic management of all trains and operations on the coal line 2010 All Improve availability of DC and AC power 2010 Dumbe Bank Capacity losses due to critical signals 2010 100/200 wagon staging facilities at Saaiwater to improve Mine / Train synchronisation. This will prevent Saaiwater cancellations. 2012 All New signalling systems to reduce headways between trains 2018 Ermelo-RBCT Doubling of Overvaal tunnel and removal of Sikame and Ilangakazi crossing at grade. 2017 Ermelo – RBCT Power Upgrade to accommodate 91 MTPA capacity 2018 Blackhill – Ermelo Power Upgrade to 25KV to reduce shunting efforts at Ermelo 2020
Blackhill – Ermelo 1:60 gradient removal to balance traction power needed between North and South of Ermelo 2025
Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 132
Rail Development Plans Maputo Corridor
Groenbult
Polokwane Phalaborwa Vaalwater 9 Hoedspruit Steelpoort MOZAMBIQUE
Roossenekal 8
Nelspruit Komatipoort Belfast 5 6 Greenview 4 Derwent Kaapmuiden 1 2 3 Machadadorp Ogies Zesfontein SWAZILAND
Location Intervention Needed by
1 Greenview to Witbank Double single section line, improve gradients 2034
2 Witbank to Derwent Double single sections, CTC signalling. Electrify with 3kV D.C. 2026
3 Belfast to Machadodorp Double single track sections and provide CTC signalling. 3kV D.C. 2029
4 Machadodorp to Nelspruit Double single track sections and provide CTC signalling. 3kV D.C. 2026
5 Nelspruit to Kaapmuiden Double single line, increase loop lengths, double tunnel 2036
6 Kaapmuiden to Komatipoort Extend yard, build new yard for 100 wagon trains, extend loops 2023
7 Greenview to Komatipoort Power upgrade, signalling upgrade 2026 Steelpoort to Belfast Reduce gradients (Lydenburg-Steelpoort 119km) 2033 8
9 Phalaborwato Kaapmuiden Lengthen passing loops and extend Hoedspruit yard 2025
Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 134 Rail Development Plans Northern System
Musina
Lephalale Groenbult
Polokwane
Vaalwater
Steelpoort Modimolle
Roossenekal
Pyramid Belfast Greenview Rustenburg Derwent Machadadorp Ogies Lichtenburg
Location Intervention Needed by
Lephalale to Thabazimbi Electrify to 25kV 2020
Lephalale to Thabazimbi Provide Intermediate passing loops. 2016
Extend short passing loops to accommodate long trains, and provide 1 Intermediate Thabazimbi to Northam passing loop. 2030
Extend short passing loops to accommodate long trains, and provide 1 Intermediate Northam to Rustenburg passing loop. 2026
Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 135
Rail Development Plans Focus on the Waterberg
SA Coal Production Trends by Coal Field
2008 2020
53% 45%
35% 28%
15% 7% 8% 3% 4% 2%
Witbank Highveld Free State Ermelo Waterberg
Source: Frost & Sullivan Report December 2009 Slide 136 Rail Development Plans Location relative to other coal fields in SA
Lephalale Polokwane
Modimolle
Waterberg area is relatively small compared to the Mpumalanga coal fields. Large portions not conventionally mineable due to fault-line fractures and depth Waterberg accounts for 40% of the remaining resources in SA (not reserves!)
Slide 137
Rail Development Plans Introduction: Waterberg Facts
Zoetfontein Fault
Botswana
Daarby Fault Current Pit Deep Coal (250m below surface)
Eenzaamheid Fault
Open Pit Mine-able Coal
Lephalale
Source: Transnet Waterberg FER Study 2010 Slide 138 Rail Development Plans Drivers for demand in the Waterberg
Diminishing coal reserves in Witbank, Mpumalanga, Coal Fields across the border in Botswana Highveld : Huge coal resources claimed Sustaining demand for export coal Feed thermal coal to SA Requirement for thermal coal for existing power stations Export opportunities via Richards Bay (or Walvis Bay?) New power station expansions in Waterberg New start-ups in Iron Ore mining Location of Matimba and Medupi drives coal production National Department of Transport Road Freight Derivative coal export opportunities Strategy Opportunity for thermal coal to feed Mpumalanga PS Heavy freight off the roads to rail as stated ambition SASOL CTL expansions through regulation Possibility of project Mafuta with derivative coal export Some metal ores (Cr, etc) and other general freight from General freight : Construction materials, Chemicals and the Limpopo area will be impacted liquid fuels
100 140 Upper End Forecast 90 Lower End Forecast Domestic Coal 120 80 Export Coal Iron Ore Current coal 70 100 Other / General Freight export level Million Tons per annum Million Tons per Annum 60
80 50
60 40
30 40
20 20 10
- - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
Source: Transnet Waterberg FER Study 2010 Slide 139
Rail Development Plans Challenge 1: Ruling Gradients and Curvature
BOTSWANA Ruling Gradients (steepness) and Curves are not up to heavy haul standards and will be difficult to re-align due to the topography. Mahalapye Coal Line Heavy Haul Standards: REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA • Curve Radius >= 350m • Ruling Gradients <= 1:160 Groenbult Lephalale (Ellisras)
Gaborone Polokwane L 1:125 Matlabas L 1:40 E 1:100 E 1:40 R 600m R 140m Vaalwater
Thabazimbi Naboomspruit Steelpoort L 1:75 Modimolle (Nylstroom) E 1:75 L 1:60 R 200m Bela-Bela (Warmbarths) E 1:80 R 603m L 1:100 E 1:100 L 1:143 Roossenekal R 800m Atlanta E 1:111 R 714m L 1:80 L 1:80 Hammanskraal L 1:50 L 1:50 Boshoek E 1:66 E 1:80 Pyramid E 1:50 E 1:50 R 800m R 440m RAIL LINE to Maputo Pyramid South R 300m R 305m Belfast L 1:90(61) Greenview E 1:80(61) Rustenburg Pendoring Witbank R 200m L 1:100 Wonderfontein E 1:100 Blackhill L 1:75(54) R 800m E 1:50 L 1:80 Ogies R 175m E 1:100 Welgedag L 1:100 R 800m E 1:100 Springs L Loaded direction R 363m L 1:100 E Empty direction E 1:100 Hamelfontein ERMELO R 320m Trichardt R Radius of sharpest curve COAL LINE to Richardsbay Source: Transnet Waterberg FER Study 2010 Slide 141 Rail Development Plans Challenge 2: Expansive Clays limiting axle loading to 20t
Norite Clay sections are extensive. Up to 3 m deep. Several investigations were conducted over the past 15 years but no economical “cure” is possible. This makes doubling the line a less attractive option
Source: Transnet Waterberg FER Study 2010 Slide 142
Rail Development Plans Challenge 3: Social and Environmental
Reserves Waterberg Hammanskraal Conservation Areas Environmentally Important sites Irreplaceable Biodiversity Ecological Corridor
Mamelodi Waterberg Biosphere Middelburg Reserve KwaGuka
Marakele National Ben Alberts Game Park Gauteng - Ermelo Reserve
Rhino Eco Park
Secunda Ermelo
Pilanesberg Provincial Nature Reserve
Environmental and Social limitations in conjunction with geology and topography makes finding new alignments challenging.
Magaliesburg Protected Environment
Source: Transnet Waterberg FER Study 2010 Slide 143 Rail Development Plans Routing Options
BOTSWANA
Crossing the Limpopo is RSA technically difficult due to Mahalapye wide flood-plane
Groenbult Lephalale (Ellisras)
Gaborone Polokwane Matlabas <1:100 Finding a new route is ultimately the only option for large scale capacity Vaalwater development
Thabazimbi Naboomspruit Steelpoort Modimolle (Nylstroom) 1:160 Bela-Bela (Warmbaths) 1:100 92.8km 1:160 107km 90.5km 1:125 Roossenekal Atlanta 41km 1:160 Boshoek Pyramid 262km RAIL LINE to Maputo Greenview Belfast Pyrami Witbank Rustenburg Pendoring d South Wonderfontein Blackhill Existing lines Welgedag Ogies Potential New lines Springs
HamelfonteinERMELO Trichardt COAL LINE to Richards Bay
Source: Transnet Waterberg FER Study 2010 Slide 144
RailWaterberg Development FER / FEL1 Plans Study Realistic Capacity Ramp-up
New Route Development Slots Mtpa Option 3 Added D/E A: Single line -Unidirectional 17 34.7 Non-negotiable B: Single line - Bidirectional (100 wagons) 17 34.7 100 Slots Maximise the current throughput Mtpa Added C: Single line - Bidirectional (200 wagons) 17 69.4 Phase 1 –Matlabasloop extension 1 4.2 D: Double line -100 wagons 43 122.8 90 Phase 2 -Additional Loops 6 14.6 E: Double line -200 wagons 43 245.6 Phase 3 -TSW + 1 loop and extension 8 18.7 Phase 4 -All Loops + TSW 13 28.9 80 Phase 5 -Electrify GGK-TZB 13 28.9
C 70 Million Million Tons per annum
60 Double the existing line Additional Capacity = 58 Mtpa
50
Domestic Coal 40 A/B Export Coal
1-5 30 Iron Ore Other / General Freight 20
10
-
Source: Transnet Waterberg FER Study 2010 Slide 145 Rail Development Plans Waterberg Development Plans : Conclusions & Way Forward
To meet critical demand, a feasibility study for short term capacity is to be initiated aligned with coal line expansion Further pre-feasibility studies will determine preferred medium to long term Expansion Option. This will include a definitive position for the Waterberg rail logistics system on:
Due diligence on demand profiles
Tractive option (3kV DC; 25kV AC)
Axle loading profile (26t/axle: Forwarding/ receiving sites + mainlines)
Geotechnical conditions in relation to constructability
Detailed environmental and social plans
Innovative Rail Loading Solutions to assist junior mining sector
Integrated Planning of all Infrastructure Elements (Rail, Roads, Services, Water; Town Planning) in Waterberg critical to success
Requires National, Provincial and Local Government Support
Transnet can co-ordinate initiatives with industry and stakeholders in early planning phases
Funding vehicles for this scale of investment benefiting the economy at large to be investigated
Slide 146
Rail Development Plans Gauteng Freight Ring Concept
The eventual freight ring will not be closed on the western side because no feasible route was found. Instead, a bypass further west connecting Rustenburg, Swartruggens, Lichtenburg and Mafikeng is proposed but only if volumes justify the investment.
Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 150 Rail Development Plans
Terminals – Gauteng Pyramid (Concept)
Roscon GAUTENG FREIGHT RING
1st GENERATION TERMINALS Pretcon
2nd GENERATION TERMINALS
Existing terminals will not cope with long term demand Approach : Maximise footprint of existing terminals before developing mega-terminals Sentrarand Positioning is critical: (Concept) Close to demand / customers Good access to road infrastructure Close to main corridors
Sufficient growth Kascon opportunities for logistics City Deep infrastructure (warehousing etc.) Non-intrusive and sustainable Close to urban edge (best Tambo Springs practice) (Concept) Vaalcon+ (Concept)
Vaalcon Slide 155
Rail Development Plans Potential of Current Terminals
Capacity Expansions
Phalaborwa
Polokwane
Belcon
Bayhead • Change operating Capacity • 5 haulers per crane Dealparty methodology 2010/11 • Introduce additional • Additional operations staff 2011/12 Nelspruit equipment (cranes, reach stacker & • Recruit additional haulers) 2012/13 operators • Implement Navis Bloemcon 2013/14 • Implement Navis
Terminal 2014/15 Vaalcon
Pretcon • Upgraded cranes • Fixed slab Eastcon
Kazcon
City Deep
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000
TEU's
Slide 156 Rail Development Plans Capacity Plan for Gauteng Intermodal Terminals
6,000 2020
5,000
Maximise Existing Terminals Mega-terminal Phases 1-4
4,000
3,000 City Deep Upgrades
Kazcon Redesign
Pretcon Upgrade 2,000
1,000
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
City Deep Kazcon Pretcon Roscon Vaalcon Private Sentrarand Total Demand
Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 157
Rail Development Plans Concept design for a 4 million TEU mega terminal
Rail
Road
Accommodation, Canteen, Medi Centre, Rec. facilities Warehousing & Logistics Infrastructure Maintenance Yards and Workshops Automotive Depot
Load / unload car parking and service car park Automotive Inspection, Wash/Dewax, Workshop Covered Parking
4 X Container Terminals
Slide 158 Content
1. Introduction 2. Infrastructure Plan Overview 3. Integrated Demand Forecast 4. Development Plans: • Port • Pipelines • Rail 5. Concluding Remarks
5. Concluding Remarks Expanding Capacity for Mineral Exports
Sishen-Saldanha Ore Line Sishen-SaldanhaRichcor: Coal Line Ore Line
Current Capacity: 47Mtpa Current Capacity: 70Mtpa
Planned Capacity: 60Mtpa Planned Capacity: 81Mtpa Longer Term Capacity: 85Mtpa+ Longer Term Capacity: 91Mtpa+
71 mtpa Task order issued 81 mtpa Capital investment to commence construction of Application approved, track switch structure for Includes the FEL-3 study Delmas, Argent & Kendal and EIA traction subs FEL-3 Study Team being mobilised Hotazel to Ngqura & PE Line
Current Capacity: 5.5Mtpa
Planned Capacity: 12Mtpa *
Longer Term Capacity: 16Mtpa+
* Manganese through the Port of Saldanha is currently under consideration
Slide 162 5. Concluding Remarks Capital Investment and Funding
Transnet’s Corporate Plan 2010/11 – 2014/15 commits to R93.4bn investment in port, rail and pipeline infrastructure.
Transnet does not receive subsidies from government and must therefore secure investment grade ratings in order to borrow funds.
Transnet funds infrastructure investment by: • re-investing CASH FROM OPERATIONS • raising DEBT which must both be managed within a gearing limit of 50% and cash interest cover of 3 times +
This scale and complexity of infrastructure investment requires policy and regulatory certainty – both for Transnet and for private investors who will be asked to partner with Transnet going forward.
Source : Transnet Corporate Plan Slide 164
5. Concluding Remarks FRAMEWORK AND PORTFOLIO OF PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION OPPORTUNITIES
COMPLEMENTARY TO TRANSNET STRATEGY MEGA PROJECT PRIVATE FINANCE INITIATVE JOINT VENTURES IN CORE OPERATIONS
“Non-core” but fundamental in Mega investment requirements to Benefit of private sector expertise complementing strategic objectives provide step change in capacity and technology Scope to improve productivity and Unaffordable to Transnet alone Value in strategic partnerships drive efficiencies High risk investment due to long High levels of innovation required Benefit from increased competition pay-back periods Increased volumes and revenue
Criteria Concentration risk Reduced cost of doing business in No guarantee on volumes South Africa and improve competitiveness rating
Branch lines network Coal line expansion Transshipment hub-port terminal Inland terminals Iron-ore line expansion Integrated logistics services Multi-purpose terminals Manganese expansion Inland terminals Short-sea-shipping feeder network Core Intermodal network expansion New bulk port terminals (where Customer owned wagons New container terminals unaffordable) Ship repair facilities New container terminals (where Probable Probable projects Passenger port terminals unaffordable) Customer owned wagons
Slide 165 5. Concluding Remarks CONCLUDING COMMENTS
Transnet’s National Infrastructure Plan continues to undergo refinement as economic conditions change.
Key strategic decisions are required to ensure that freight systems capacity is provided at the right place and at the right time.
Major infrastructure expansions involve long lead times. Five years decision horizon needed for most major port and rail projects.
As a state-owned enterprise, Transnet is well positioned to take this long-term perspective on the requirements of the freight system and plan accordingly, and to develop the projects and operations in partnership with the private sector.
Policy and economic regulation must provide for a fair return on invested capital and predictability of cash flows because Transnet does not rely on government subsidies to fund the required infrastructure investments.
Stakeholder engagements will continue as a key feature of Transnet’s planning process.
Slide 166
Thank You