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2009 NIP PPC Update Full 27 May 2010 Ver Short

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2009 NIP PPC Update Full 27 May 2010 Ver Short PORTSPorts DURBAN : STATUS QUO Slide 79 PORTSPorts DURBAN : CURRENT LAYOUT Source: TNPA Slide 80 PORTSPorts DURBAN : FUTURE LAYOUT Source: TNPA Slide 81 PORTSPorts DURBAN : LONG TERM POTENTIAL Source: TNPA Slide 82 PORTSPorts DURBAN AIRPORT SITE : STATUS QUO Slide 83 PORTSPorts DURBAN AIRPORT SITE : LONG TERM POTENTIAL Source: TNPA Slide 84 Ports INTEGRATED PORT – CITY PLANS INTEGRATED LONG-TERM PORT, RAIL, ROAD AND LAND-USE PLAN Slide 85 PORTS DURBAN PROJECT SENSITIVITY LOW GROWTH : MEGA TERMINAL REQUIRED IN 2024 MEDIUM GROWTH : MEGA TERMINAL REQUIRED IN 2019 HIGH GROWTH : MEGA TERMINAL REQUIRED IN 2017 LOW GROWTH : 2010 to 2040 : 5% MEDIUM GROWTH : 2010 to 2020 : 8%, 2021 to 2030 : 6%, 2031 to 2040 : 4% HIGH GROWTH : 2010 to 2020 : 10%, 2021 to 2030 : 8%, 2031 to 2040 : 6% Slide 86 PORTSPorts PORT OF RICHARDS BAY Slide 87 PORTSPorts RICHARDS BAY DEMAND FORECAST 2009 120 000 000 100 000 000 80 000 000 60 000 000 40 000 000 20 000 000 Containers Vehicles Break Bulk Dry Bulk Liquid Bulk 2008/09 2013/14 2037/38 Source: Corporate Plan, TCP Slide 88 PORTSPorts RICHARDS BAY : STATUS QUO Slide 89 PORTSPorts RICHARDS BAY : CURRENT LAYOUT Source: TNPA Slide 90 PORTSPorts RICHARDS BAY : FUTURE LAYOUT Source: TNPA Slide 91 PORTSPorts RICHARDS BAY : LONG TERM POTENTIAL Source: TNPA Slide 92 JOH-TRX032- 20080715-SS-X1 National Infrastructure Plan PIPELINES June 2009 Pipelines Future National Pipeline Network Indicative alignments only Source: Transnet Pipelines Slide 95 Pipelines Inland Demand, the NMPP and the Bridging Plan * Timeline adjustment submitted to NERSA for consideration 32 NMPP Phase 3 14.0 Bnl/annum NMPP Phase 2 Bridging Plan NMPP capacity 28 12.2 Bnl/annum capacity NMPP Phase 1 24 8.7 Bnl/annum capacity Latest 20 Demand Spare capacity Forecast 16 Pipeline Capacity Utilised Road & Rail Supply 12 Pipeline Capacity Utilised Permanent Road & Rail Supply Billion Litres per Annum per Annum perLitres Litres BillionBillion 8 Note: 4 NMPP future Phases required Phase 4 - 2023 - 17.5 Bnl/ann Phase 5 - 2031 - 26.2 Bnl/ann 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (Latest Est GDP-1) Inland supply Road + Rail Supply Pipeline capacity TPL Inland Supply Source: Transnet Pipelines Slide 96 Pipelines Addressable Fuels Demand Forecast Product 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 18/19 23/24 28/29 33/34 Crude Oil (b.l) 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 Refined (b.l) 14.5 14.0 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.8 18.7 21.3 26.3 31.3 AvTur (b.l) 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.7 3 Gas (cub. m m) 501.8 589.7 643.9 733.7 804.9 848.1 936.4 1033.8 1141.4 1260.2 Inland Crude Oil Inland Refined Products 7.0 35.0 Pipeline capacity (6,8 blpa) 30.0 6.0 28 blpa 25.0 5.0 Refinery capacity (5,6 blpa) 22 blpa NMPP- 4.0 20.0 3.0 15.0 2.0 10.0 1.0 5.0 Capacity Supply and Demand (billion litres pa) Capacity Supply and Demand (billion litres pa) New Multi Product 0.0 0.0 Pipeline expected to provide buffer capacity Inland4.0 Aviation Turbine Fuel GasInland Refined Products for all products 1400 3.5 1180mpa 1200 3.0 1000 885m pa 2.5 1,8 blpa 800 2.0 6803 mpa 1.5 600 1.0 400 0.5 200 0.0 Demand 0 Capacity Slide 97 Rail Plan Update: •• Branchlines •• Rail Gauge •• Overview of regional plans •• Waterberg •• Gauteng Intermodal Terminals Rail: Network Status Quo Branch Lines Strategy The railway network is classified into The Core Network (about 12 800 km) Branch lines (about 7 300 km) Transnet’s branch lines strategy provides for concessioning to private operators Approval has been granted by the Minister of Public Enterprises in terms of the Public Finance Management Act, 1999. Transnet is currently doing feasibility studies to determine the viability of each concession opportunity for private operators; and in discussions with the NDOT to finalise a sustainability plan for the branch lines strategy, in line with government policy for: Rural development; Moving more freight off roads and on to rail; Reducing freight logistics costs; Promoting private sector participation in rail operations, and Increasing road and rail safety. Source: Transnet Group Policy Slide 104 Rail: Network Status Quo Network Classification Classification Rationale / Criteria Basic core Port- Rail Corridor 12,801 km Characterised by: (63.8% of the 1. Freight focus Port Interconnect total network 2. Blockloads distance of 3. Hub to hub Cross-border Interconnect 20,079 km) 4. Corridors Extended core 5. Rail, port and pipeline High volume Feeder connectivity Includes 74 km 6. Intermodalism Network operational flexibility of closed line 7. Operational flexibility Future Network Expansion Provision Branch line 3,350 km Characterised by: Closed Lines (16.7%) 1. Multi-use potential 2. Relatively low volumes 874 km 3. Distinct train configuration Lifted Lines (not included) 4. Small scale operations 5. Distinct Infrastructure Profile 6. Multiple origin-destinations Low volume active branch line 3,928 km (19.6%) High volume active branch line Source: Transnet Group Planning / Transnet Freight Rail Slide 105 Rail: Network Status Quo Core Network Port- Rail Corridor Zimbabwe Port Interconnect Musina Botswana Cross-border Interconnect Louis Trichardt Groenbult Lephalale Mozambique High volume Feeder Polokwane Phalaborwa Vaalwater Zebediela Network operational flexibility Steelpoort Modimolle Nelspruit Future Network Expansion Komatipoort Mafikeng Witbank Kaapmuiden Ermelo SWAZILAND Vryburg Vereeniging Namibia Hotazel Klerksdorp Pudimoe Kroonstad Warden Vryheid Nakop Sishen Upington Veertien Strome Virginia Harrismith Bethlehem Kimberley Ladysmith Kakamas Douglas Bloemfontein Richards Bay Koffiefontein Belmont LESOTHO Pietermaritzburg Durban Springfontein De Aar Aliwal North Harding Sakrivier Port Shepstone Maclear Noupoort Calvinia Rosmead Hutchinson Umtata Hofmeyer Queenstown Beaufort West Blaney Klipplaat Cookhouse Saldanha East London Alicedale Worcester Oudtshoorn Port Alfred Ngqura Cape Town Knysna Port Elizabeth Mosselbaai Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 106 Rail: Network Status Quo Branch Line Network Closed Lines Zimbabwe Musina Lifted Lines Botswana Louis Trichardt Low volume active branch line Groenbult Lephalale Mozambique Polokwane Phalaborwa Vaalwater High volume active branch line Zebediela Steelpoort Middelwit Modimolle Marble Hall Nelspruit Komatipoort Witbank Mafikeng Kaapmuiden Vermaas Ermelo SWAZILAND Ottosdal Vereeniging Vryburg Namibia Hotazel Klerksdorp Pudimoe Makwassie Vrede Kroonstad Vryheid Nakop Sishen Warden Upington Veertien Strome Virginia Harrismith Bethlehem Kimberley Ladysmith Kakamas Douglas Bloemfontein Richards Bay Koffiefontein Belmont LESOTHO Pietermaritzburg Durban Franklin Springfontein Harding De Aar Aliwal North Sakrivier Port Shepstone Maclear Noupoort Calvinia Rosmead Hutchinson Umtata Hofmeyer Queenstown Beaufort West Porterville Klipplaat Cookhouse Saldanha Blaney East London Prince Alfred Hamlet Alicedale Oudtshoorn Worcester Port Alfred Ngqura Cape Town Port Elizabeth Knysna Mosselbaai Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 107 Rail Gauge What is rail gauge? 1065/7 MM Cape gauge 2700 mm Standard gauge 1435 MM 3070 mm Rail gauge is the distance between the inner sides of the two parallel rails Standard Gauge is set at 1435mm Cape Gauge is set at 1065/7mm Narrow Gauge is typically less than 700mm (Not many in SA) Slide 109 Rail Gauge Viability/Opportunity for conversion from Cape Gauge to Standard Gauge • Gauge conversion effects every element of a railway system ie. infrastructure, rolling stock, ancillary DoT NATMAP Rail Gauge Report 2010: equipment, sidings, ports, superstructures etc. “Finding 17. Converting the gauge of the whole or portion of the existing Transnet narrow gauge • Conversion from Cape gauge to Standard gauge has network to standard gauge is not economically greatest benefits for passenger rail as it supports higher justifiable in South Africa” speed trains versus freight rail where high speed is not “Recommendation c. Use every logical required. opportunity to tap into the advantages presented by this technology whilst keeping the masterplan • Capital investment to convert existing network: roughly network in mind “ R35m per km of single line for base infrastructure only, “Recommendation d. Evaluate each such excluding major structures (eg bridges), rolling stock, opportunity on its individual merits and then equipment, loading/off -loading facilities etc . build it in standard gauge if economically viable “ • Est. total cost in 2007 of R767bn (excluding impact on operations during construction): Transnet fully supports this view. • Economic benefit of this scale of investment would require comprehensive system-wide cost benefit Transnet Freight Rail is a signatory analysis. The entire Southern African region is to the African Union resolution on connected on Cape gauge. rail gauge and has thereby committed to reviewing the • Opportunities for introduction of standard gauge in the feasibility of conversion to Standard South African rail network exists where new isolated rail Gauge for all new railway projects. corridors are being considered eg. proposed high speed rail link between Durban and Johannesburg. Source: Transnet Group Planning Slide 110 Rail Gauge Freight Speed • Intercity passenger trains need to run at high speed (300 km/h +) to compete with airways • For freight, throughput time (Cycle- or Turnaround Time) is more important than speed • High speed will not necessarily improve Throughput Time but will increase the cost of operations • Freight speed on Cape Gauge
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