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30Th January–25Th February 2013
Security Trends NCCI’s Security Trends Analysis providesSecurity internal advice for TrendsAnalysis NCCI members only and should not be forwarded outside your 30th January–25th February 2013 By organization. If forwarded internally, care must be taken to ensure that it is not passed Analysis on to any third parties. [Type text] The NCCI Security Trends Analysis is provided to member NGOs once a month as an informational and advisory report on possible trends, threats and incidents based on information received from NGOs, the media, international organizations and official sources. Every reasonable effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this analysis. NCCI collates information from reliable sources. Where a source is in doubt, NCCI seeks to corroborate that information. There may be an occasion when some information is included and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This typically occurs with an emerging or developing situation when it is considered in the best interests of NCCI’s member organisations to be made aware of any available information. We thank you in advance for NOT disseminating this document and ensuring that it is ONLY circulated between members within your organisation General information is available to members at the NCCI website, www.ncciraq.org Please do not hesitate to contact us at [email protected] 2 | NCCI | We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization Table of Contents Mukhtar Militia is -
Violence in Iraq: the Growing Risk of Serious Civil Conflict
Burke Chair in Strategy Violence in Iraq: The Growing Risk of Serious Civil Conflict By Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai September 9, 2013 Request for comments: This report is a draft that will be turned into an electronic book. Comments and suggested changes would be greatly appreciated. Please send any comments to Anthony H. Cordsman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, at [email protected]. ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy [email protected] Cordesman: Violence in Iraq 9/6/13 1 INTRODUCTION Iraq is a nation with great potential and its political divisions and ongoing low-level violence do not mean it cannot succeed in establishing stability, security, and a better life for its people. Iraq cannot succeed, however, by denying its growing level of violence and the responsibility of Iraq’s current political leaders for its problems. There are gaps in the data on Iraq’s current level of violence, its causes, and the responsibility of given actors. The data are still good enough, however, to warn that Iraq may be moving back to a level of civil conflict that will amount to a serious civil war. There is also substantial reporting to show that Iraq’s violence is not simply the product of extremists and terrorist groups. Iraq’s growing violence is also the result of the fact that Iraq is the scene of an ongoing struggle to establish a new national identity: one that can bridge across the deep sectarian divisions between its Shi’ites and Sunnis as well as the ethnic divisions between its Arabs and its Kurds and other minorities. -
Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies
Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies Updated May 8, 2019 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R44017 SUMMARY R44017 Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies May 8, 2019 Iran’s national security policy is the product of many overlapping and sometimes competing factors such as the ideology of Iran’s Islamic revolution, perception of threats Kenneth Katzman to the regime and to the country, long-standing national interests, and the interaction of Specialist in Middle the Iranian regime’s factions and constituencies. Iran’s leadership: Eastern Affairs x Seeks to deter or thwart U.S. or other efforts to invade or intimidate Iran or to bring about a change of regime. x Has sought to take advantage of opportunities of regional conflicts to overturn a power structure in the Middle East that it asserts favors the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni Muslim Arab regimes. x Seeks to enhance its international prestige and restore a sense of “greatness” reminiscent of ancient Persian empires. x Advances its foreign policy goals, in part by providing material support to regional allied governments and armed factions. Iranian officials characterize the support as helping the region’s “oppressed” and assert that Saudi Arabia, in particular, is instigating sectarian tensions and trying to exclude Iran from regional affairs. x Sometimes disagrees on tactics and strategies. Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i and key hardline institutions, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), oppose any compromises of Iran’s national security core goals. Iran’s elected president, Hassan Rouhani, and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif support Iran’s integration into regional and international diplomacy. -
Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies
Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies name redacted Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs December 21, 2016 Congressional Research Service 7-.... www.crs.gov R44017 Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies Summary Iran’s national security policy is the product of many, and sometimes competing, factors: the ideology of Iran’s Islamic revolution; Iranian leadership’s perception of threats to the regime and to the country; long-standing Iranian national interests; and the interaction of the Iranian regime’s various factions and constituencies. Some experts assert that the goal of Iran’s national security strategy is to overturn a power structure in the Middle East that Iran asserts favors the United States and its allies Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni Muslim Arab regimes. Iran characterizes its support for Shiite and other Islamist movements as support for the “oppressed” and asserts that Saudi Arabia, in particular, is instigating sectarian tensions and trying to exclude Iran from regional affairs. Others interpret Iran as primarily attempting to protect itself from U.S. or other efforts to invade or intimidate it or to change its regime. Its strategy might, alternatively or additionally, represent an attempt to enhance Iran’s international prestige or restore a sense of “greatness” reminiscent of the ancient Persian empires. From 2010 until 2016, Iran’s foreign policy also focused on attempting to mitigate the effects of international sanctions on Iran. Iran employs a number of different tools in pursuing its national security policy. Some Iranian policy tools are common to most countries: traditional diplomacy and the public promotion of Iran’s values and interests. -
Tending an Oasis of Uprising; Exiled Iranians, Fenced in by the US Army
The Conflict in Iraq; COLUMN ONE; Tending an Oasis of Uprising; Exiled…m of overthrowing Tehran. In the meantime, their yards need watering. 3/4/09 11:26 AM LAT Home | My LATimes | Print Edition | All Sections Jobs | Cars.com | Real Estate | More Classifieds SEARCH L.A. Times Archives L.A. Times Archives » Archives Search » Saved Search Document » Logout » Account & Start a New Search | Previous Results Purchase » Knowledge Center Other Formats: Abstract Full Text Page Print Printer Friendly » Trouble Report The Conflict in Iraq; COLUMN ONE; Tending an Oasis of Uprising; Exiled Iranians, fenced in by the U.S. Army in Iraq, harbor a dream of overthrowing Tehran. In the meantime, their yards need watering. Archives Help [HOME EDITION] » About the Archive » Pricing Los Angeles Times - Los Angeles, Calif. » Terms of Service Subjects: Political dissent, Terrorism, Communes, Exile Author: Ashraf Khalil » Search Tips Date: Mar 19, 2005 » FAQ Start Page: A.1 » Obituaries Section: Main News; Part A; Foreign Desk » Rights & Text Word Count: 2336 Permissions Document Text Other Services Residents of this sprawling commune an hour north of Baghdad pride themselves on their self-sufficiency. They bake their own bread, purify their own » Research Service water, even make their own carbonated cola. » Back Issues » Page Prints They spend their days tending to their gardens, sprucing up their living quarters and listening to performances of John Lennon's "Imagine." And they conduct military drills while they wait for their chance to overthrow the Iranian government. » Front Pages » Books "This is heaven," Abdel Reza "Joe" Jowkar said, gesturing around a landscaped park complete with artificial waterfall. -
The Mujahedin-E Khalq in Iraq: a Policy Conundrum
THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. The Mujahedin-e Khalq in Iraq A Policy Conundrum Jeremiah Goulka, Lydia Hansell, Elizabeth Wilke, Judith Larson Sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). -
Iraq: Politics and Governance
Iraq: Politics and Governance Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Carla E. Humud Analyst in Middle Eastern and African Affairs March 9, 2016 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RS21968 Iraq: Politics and Governance Summary Iraq’s sectarian and ethnic divisions—muted toward the end of the 2003-2011 U.S. military intervention in Iraq—are fueling a major challenge to Iraq’s stability and to U.S. policy in Iraq and the broader Middle East region. The resentment of Iraq’s Sunni Arabs toward the Shiite- dominated central government facilitated the capture in 2014 of nearly one-third of Iraqi territory by the Sunni Islamist extremist group called the Islamic State (IS, also known as ISIL, ISIS, or the Arabic acronym Da'esh). Iraq’s Kurds are separately embroiled in political, territorial, and economic disputes with Baghdad, but those differences have been at least temporarily subordinated to the common struggle against the Islamic State. U.S. officials assert that the Iraqi government must work to gain the loyalty of more of Iraq’s Sunnis—and to resolve differences with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)—if an eventual defeat of the Islamic State is to result in long-term stability. Prospects for greater inter- communal unity appeared to increase in 2014 with the replacement of former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki with the current Prime Minister, Haydar al-Abbadi. Although both men are from the Shiite Islamist Da’wa Party, Abbadi has taken some steps to try to compromise with Sunnis and with the KRG. However, a significant point of contention with the KRG remains the KRG’s marketing of crude oil exports separately from Baghdad. -
Of Islamist Terrorist Attacks
ISLAMIST TERRORIST ATTACKS IN THE WORLD 1979-2019 NOVEMBER 2019 ISLAMIST TERRORIST ATTACKS IN THE WORLD 1979-2019 NOVEMBER 2019 ISLAMIST TERRORIST ATTACKS IN THE WORLD 1979-2019 Editor Dominique REYNIÉ, Executive Director of the Fondation pour l’innovation politique Editorial coordination Victor DELAGE, Madeleine HAMEL, Katherine HAMILTON, Mathilde TCHOUNIKINE Production Loraine AMIC, Victor DELAGE, Virginie DENISE, Anne FLAMBERT, Madeleine HAMEL, Katherine HAMILTON, Sasha MORINIÈRE, Dominique REYNIÉ, Mathilde TCHOUNIKINE Proofreading Francys GRAMET, Claude SADAJ Graphic design Julien RÉMY Printer GALAXY Printers Published November 2019 ISLAMIST TERRORIST ATTACKS IN THE WORLD Table of contents An evaluation of Islamist violence in the world (1979-2019), by Dominique Reynié .....................................................6 I. The beginnings of transnational Islamist terrorism (1979-2000) .............12 1. The Soviet-Afghan War, "matrix of contemporary Islamist terrorism” .................................. 12 2. The 1980s and the emergence of Islamist terrorism .............................................................. 13 3. The 1990s and the spread of Islamist terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa ........................................................................................... 16 4. The export of jihad ................................................................................................................. 17 II. The turning point of 9/11 (2001-2012) ......................................................21 -
The Gulf and Sectarianism
ANALYSIS GULF THE GULF AND SECTARIANISM Introduction by Fatima Ayub ABOUT By virtue of their confined political environments, the countries of the Arabian Peninsula and their most important neighbours often remain impenetrable to domestic and Has the Arab Awakening degenerated into a nightmare? foreign observers. And yet, the evolving politics After its first experiment with credible elections, Egypt has of Peninsula countries, their relationship to reverted to the strongman politics of the deep state. A free one another and to the wider region, pose Libya looks to be in free fall. Yemen’s managed political some of the most significant and unanswered transition is stagnating. Bahrain’s national reconciliation questions for the changing geopolitics of the is less a dialogue than a monologue by its self-assured Middle East. Gulf politics are entering the monarchs. Syria is unravelling into an ever more divisive most unpredictable and volatile era since their and brutal internecine conflict, jeopardising the political establishment. and economic health of already anaemic Lebanon and Jordan. The war in Iraq, metastasizing anew as the Arab Understanding these new trends as they Awakening triggers new power struggles around it, claims unfold will be critical if Europeans and other hundreds of dead each month as it fuses with the war on its international actors intend to rely on the Gulf western border. Perhaps the most worrying trend is that of states as financial and political partners in the sectarianism and in particular the re-emergence of identity region. In the coming decade, the Gulf states politics along the Shia-Sunni divide. -
Independent Report on the Events of September 1, 2013, at Camp Ashraf, Iraq
INDEPENDENT REPORT ON THE EVENTS OF SEPTEMBER 1, 2013, AT CAMP ASHRAF, IRAQ By 1 Jared Genser, Chris Fletcher, and Nicole Santiago Counsel to Menschenrechtsverein Für Migranten (Rights for Migrants) October 30, 2013 1 For further information contact Jared Genser at [email protected] or +1 (202) 466-3069. Perseus Strategies would like to thank Sara Birkenthal for her editorial support. The letter providing the terms of reference to Perseus Strategies can be found in Appendix II. 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 4 I. EVENTS OF SEPTEMBER 1, 2013 ................................................................................................. 7 A. Background on the Residents’ Presence in Camp Ashraf and Issues with Their Property Prior to the Assault ...................................................................................................................... 7 B. Statement of Facts Regarding the Massacre ....................................................................... 9 1. Overview .......................................................................................................................... 9 Map #1: Camp Ashraf and its Immediate Surroundings ...................................................... 10 Map #2 Attackers’ Entry Routes ........................................................................................... 12 2. The Entry ...................................................................................................................... -
Badr Organization
Badr Organization Name: Badr Organization Type of Organization: Militia political party religious social services provider terrorist transnational violent Ideologies and Affiliations: Iranian-sponsored Islamist jihadist Khomeinist Shiite Place of Origin: Iraq Year of Origin: 1983 Founder(s): Iraqi Shiites loyal to the al-Hakim Shiite clerical dynasty, with the help of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Places of Operation: Iraq, Syria Overview Also Known As: Badr Brigade1 Badr Brigades2 Badr Corps3 Badr Organization of Reconstruction and Development4 Badr Organisation in Iraq5 Martyr Mohamed Baqir al-Sadr Forces6 Martyr Muhammed Baqir al-Sadr Forces7 Munathamat Badr8 Quwet Shahid Baqir Sadr (BOQSBS)9 Executive Summary: The Badr Organization is a Shiite political party and paramilitary force that acts as “Iran’s oldest proxy in Iraq,” according to Reuters.10 Reuters notes that the group’s military wing is considered “perhaps the single most powerful Shi’ite paramilitary group” fighting in Iraq.11 One Iraqi, in 2015, official described the Badr Organization as “easily” the most powerful force in Iraq, stronger even than Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.12 Given the group’s deep ties to Iran and its political and military preeminence, analysts have compared the Badr Badr Organization Organization in Iraq to Hezbollah in Lebanon.13 The militia stands accused of gross human rights violations by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.14 Formed in 1983 under the name “the Badr Brigades,” the group originally served as the military wing of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), an Iraqi Shiite political party aimed at bringing Iran’s Islamic Revolution to Iraq. -
Chronology of Events in Iraq, April 2003*
* Chronology of Events in Iraq, April 2003 April 1 Saddam’s Fedayeen put on the front line to prevent desertion. (Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party newspaper Brayati) After the surrender of a large number of officers and soldiers on the front-line areas to peshmarga forces, Iraqi authorities brought a large number of party and military officials to the front-lines to prevent soldiers from escaping to Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq. They have organized death squads to execute those whom they suspect of planning to desert. In another step, the regime has brought Fedayee Saddam and placed them at front lines in confrontation areas. It was reported that, after withdrawing from Arbil plain towards Pirde (Altun Kopri), the regime brought a considerable number of Fedayee Saddam to the area. The source added that the forces of Fedayee Saddam had been authorized to kill any soldier who tries to escape to Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq. Iraqi forces shell areas under Kurdish control. (Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party newspaper Brayati) After Iraqi forces pulled out of Bardarash heights, the peshmerga moved towards those positions to observe the withdrawal process and check the evacuated hilltops and positions of the government military. Government forces shelled with artillery and mortar both Bardarash villages, hitting and damaging the Kurdistan School in Azadi District and a number of citizens' houses in the township. There were no casualties among the civilians. Civilians forcibly recruited in Mosul. (Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party newspaper Brayati) It was reported that the Iraqi government has forced every family in Mosul city to fill 80 sacks with earth to build mounds.