Does a Euro-Transatlantic Co-Operative Security Order Have a Future?

Does a Euro-Transatlantic Co-Operative Security Order have a Future?

1st Meeting of the Advisory Board FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe (FES ROCPE)

Vienna, 11th and 12th of April 2018

Introduction > Does a Euro-Transatlantic Co-Operative Security Order have a Future? 11th and 12th of April 2018

The current state of the European security order can be briefly summarized in six major points:

»» The principles of the European security order are under threat; »» The conflicts in Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014) are not the root causes, but rather symptoms of a larger crisis; »» Different interpretations of the events of the past 25 years and the resulting threat perceptions leave very little room for cooperation; »» Many more stakeholders/countries are involved now than during the Cold War; »» Bigger powers are interested in managing the status quo rather than changing it. For the East European-6 (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine) a divided European Home is not sustainable and might severely undermine their development and security; »» A bipartisan consensus in the US on condemning Russia makes any progress on dialogue with Moscow extremely difficult.

As a result, 25 years after the often proclaimed and assumed end of the division of Europe we are heading for a new separation. The dividing line has moved eastwards, towards the Russian boarder.

The main explanation of the above-mentioned development lies in the contradiction in the Charter of Paris for a New Europe, usually referred to as the “Paris Charter”. Under the section “Friendly Relations among Participating States” one finds two crucial sentences. The first sentence: “With the ending of the division of Europe, we will strive for a new quality in our security relations while fully respecting each other’s freedom of choice in that respect.”

This is well known and understood. But less attention was given to the next sentence: “Security is indivisible, and the security of every participating State is inseparably linked to that of all the others.” In other words: freedom of alliances is possible, but only if no one sees their security compromised by shifting memberships in alliances.

The once co-operative Euro-transatlantic security order is under severe pressure from countries within Europe but also from the US and China. Multipolarism seems to be their goal, not Multilaterism. What to do about it?

FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe · Reichsratsstr. 13/5 · A-1010 Vienna Phone: +43 (1) 890 3811 15

Agenda > Does a Euro-Transatlantic Co-Operative Security Order have a Future? 11th and 12th of April 2018

Wednesday Afternoon 11th of April 2018 Arrival of participants in Vienna Individual transfer from airport Vienna to Hotel Steigenberger Herrenhof, Herrengasse 10, 1010 Vienna

19:00h Welcome dinner Dinner speech by OSCE Secretary General Thomas Greminger Restaurant: Café Landtmann Adresse: Oppolzergasse 6, 1010 Vienna (separate entrance than the café!!)

Thursday 12th of April 2018 Meeting at OSCE Secretariat Wallnerstrasse 6, 1010 Vienna, 1st Floor (please make sure that you have your ID at the entrance)

09:00 h Welcome remarks Reinhard Krumm, Head of ROCPE

09:15 h Session 1: One year of ROCPE – the idea, the implementation, the product Alexandra Dienes, Reinhard Krumm, Simon Weiss »» Foresight Ukraine: Four Scenarios on the development of Ukraine »» Getting out from “In-Between”: Looking at avenues for building an inclusive regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia »» Islands of Cooperation: trust building measures in all three dimensions of the OSCE

10:30 h Coffee Break

11:00 h Session 2: Beyond managing the Crisis – for a more daring approach towards a Euro-Atlantic Security Order Seven minutes inputs from: Matt Rojansky, Andris Spruds, Julie Wilhelmsen

13:00 h Buffet Lunch

Afternoon Departure of participants from Vienna

FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe · Reichsratsstr. 13/5 · A-1010 Vienna Phone: +43 (1) 890 3811 15

Biographies > Does a Euro-Transatlantic Co-Operative Security Order have a Future? 11th and 12th of April 2018

Arjen Berkvens is Director of the Foundation Max van der Stoel, a social democratic political foundation from the Netherlands, and the secretary general of the European Forum for Democracy and Solidarity. He is a historian who graduated in 1993 from the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam.

Ireneusz Bil is Director of the Amicus Europae Foundation of Aleksander Kwaśniewski in Warsaw and secretary general of the European Council on Tolerance and Reconciliation (ECTR), an NGO based in Brussels. Between 1997 and 2006 he served in high-ranking advisory and executive positions in the National Security Bureau, Office for European Integration and Office of International Affairs in the Chancellery of the President of Poland. He is a graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (WSE) and until 2006 was Assistant Professor (PhD) at his alma mater.

Carmen Claudín is Senior Research Fellow Associate at CIDOB, Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, where she has been the Director of Research and previously Deputy Director. She has written various chapters for books and articles in magazines and newspapers on Soviet and post-Soviet issues. She is a member of the Editorial Board of the Spanish edition of Foreign Policy, Madrid. She was awarded a Master’s in Philosophy from the University of the Sorbonne, Paris, where she also did postgraduate work in History, specializing in Russian and Soviet history.

Alexandra Dienes is Research Associate at FES ROCPE. Born in Moscow, she got her MA in Political Science from the Freie University Berlin in 2012 and her PhD from the University of Amsterdam in 2017. She specializes in the political economy of Russia and the post-Soviet space. Before joining FES in 2017, she taught international relations and political economy at the University of Amsterdam. As a research associate at the Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe she focuses on economic aspects of regional security and cooperation and coordinates the network of young experts FLEET.

Sabine Fischer is Head of the Eastern Europe and Eurasia Research Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin. Previously, she worked at the European Union Institute for Security Studies in Paris, the Freie Universität Berlin, the Mannheim Centre for European Social Research, and the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt. Areas of Expertise: foreign and security policy of Russia, EU-Russia relations, unsolved conflicts in the EU’s Eastern Neighborhood, and regional relations in Eastern Europe and Eurasia. She holds a PhD from Johann Wolfgang- Goethe-Universität Frankfurt.

Thomas Greminger was appointed Secretary General of the OSCE on 18 July 2017 for a three-year term. Ambassador Greminger joined the diplomatic service of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) in 1990 and has held numerous senior management positions during his career. From 2010 to 2015, Greminger was the Permanent Representative of Switzerland to the OSCE, serving as Chair of the Permanent Council during Switzerland’s 2014 OSCE Chairmanship. He holds a PhD in history from the University of Zurich and the rank of Lieutenant Colonel (General Staff) in the Swiss Armed Forces.

Walter Kemp is Senior Advisor to the Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Between 2010 and 2016 he worked at the International Peace Institute (IPI). Previously he served for four years as spokesman and speechwriter at the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). Between 1996 and 2006 he worked for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), including Senior Adviser to the Secretary General and OSCE Chairmanships. He holds a PhD in international relations from the London School of Economics, as well as degrees in political science and history from the University of Toronto and McGill University.

FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe · Reichsratsstr. 13/5 · A-1010 Vienna Phone: +43 (1) 890 3811 15

Biographies > Does a Euro-Transatlantic Co-Operative Security Order have a Future? 11th and 12th of April 2018

Giorgi Khelashvili is Lecturer of International Relations at Tbilisi State University, and a team member of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Head of Parliament of Georgia. In 2013-2016 he served as a Deputy Chief of Mission at the Embassy of Georgia in the USA. He worked as policy analyst at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia; a visiting fellow at the Monterey Center for Non-Proliferation Studies; at the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center; and at the Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies of the George Washington University. He has an MPhil and DPhil in International Relations from the University of Oxford.

Andrey Kortunov is Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), a non-profit partnership established by order of the President of the Russian Federation. Previously he was Deputy Director of the Institute for US and Canadian Studies. He is the founder and first president of the Moscow Public Science Foundation. He graduated from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) and did postgraduate studies at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, USSR Academy of Sciences. He has a PhD degree in History.

Reinhard Krumm is Director of FES ROCPE in Vienna. From 1991 to 1998 he worked as a journalist in the former Soviet Union and was the Moscow correspondent of Der Spiegel magazine from 1996 to 1998. He joined the Friedrich-Ebert- Stiftung in 2002, serving as the Head of the Regional Central Asian office in Tashkent/Uzbekistan from 2003 to 2007, as the Head of the Russian office in Moscow from 2007 to 2012 and from 2012 to 2016 as the Head of the Department of Central and Eastern Europe in Berlin. He is a lecturer on Eastern European History at Regensburg University, where he received his PhD.

Alena Kupchyna is Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Belarus to the Republic of Austria and to the Republic of Croatia, and Permanent Representative to the International Organizations in Vienna and to the OSCE. She has held numerous senior posts at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus (MFA). Previous to her posting in Vienna she served from 2012-2016 as Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus. Ambassador Kupchyna graduated from Belarusian State University with distinction, Faculty of Law (1987) and did post-graduate study at the Belarusian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Philosophy and Law (1987-1990), receiving the degree Doctor of Law in 1991.

Stephanie Liechtenstein has been working since 2013 as Web Editor-in-Chief of the Security and Human Rights Monitor, a quarterly print publication and online platform that brings to light current developments affecting peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic area. Previously she worked for six years at the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in Vienna, including as senior political assistant in the Office of the OSCE Secretary General. She studied history of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).

Maria Maltschnig is Director of the Karl-Renner-Institute, an Austrian think tank. She previously worked for the Austrian Chamber of Labor and the Federal Ministry of Finance, was an Assistant to the CEO of the Austrian Federal Railways and headed the cabinet of the Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern. She studied Socio-economics in Vienna.

FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe · Reichsratsstr. 13/5 · A-1010 Vienna Phone: +43 (1) 890 3811 15

Biographies > Does a Euro-Transatlantic Co-Operative Security Order have a Future? 11th and 12th of April 2018

Uwe Optenhögel is CEO of the publishing house J.H.W. Dietz Nachf. in Bonn. He currently serves as Vice President of the Foundation of European Progressive Studies (FEPS). He has worked for the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) in various capacities, serving as head of the Department for Central and Eastern Europe and as International Director of the Foundation. His latest posting abroad for FES was in Brussels as director of the EU office in Brussels. Apart from his work for FES, Uwe Optenhögel has been a freelance political analyst and consultant for public and private organizations. He studied in Bonn, Lisbon, Hamburg and Washington, and holds a master’s degree in political science and a PhD from the University of Hamburg.

Matthew Rojansky is Director of the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. He has advised governments, intergovernmental organizations, and major private actors on conflict resolution and efforts to enhance shared security throughout the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian region. Previously, he was Deputy Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Matt Rojansky is an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins SAIS. He holds a B.A. from Harvard University and a J.D. from Stanford Law School.

Andris Spruds is Director of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs. He also holds the position of professor at Riga Stradins University. He has an M.A. in Central European History from the CEU in Budapest, Hungary and in International Relations from University of Latvia. He has also obtained a PhD in Political Science from Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Poland. Andris Spruds has been a visiting student and scholar at Oxford, Uppsala, Columbia and Johns Hopkins University, as well as the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and Japan’s Institute of Energy Economics.

Fred Tanner is currently Senior Adviser to the Crisis Management Centre of the Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Bern, Switzerland. From 2013 to 2016 he was Senior Adviser to the OSCE Secretary General in Vienna and OSCE Pro- ject Leader of the “Panel of Eminent Persons for European Security as a Common Project”. He also served on the UN Secretary General’s Advisory Board on Disarmament Matters. He previously served as Director of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP). Fred Tanner holds a PhD and a Master’s degree from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and a Bachelor’s degree from the Graduate Institute for International and Development Studies at the University of Geneva.

Simon Weiß is Research Associate and Project Coordinator at FES ROCPE and focuses on security and defense policy aspects in the region and on questions of arms control in Europe. From 2011 to 2015 he taught international relations and Russian foreign policy and was a research associate at the Institute for Political Science at the University of Heidel- berg. He studied Political Science and Sociology at the Ruprecht-Karls-University in Heidelberg.

Julie Wilhelmsen is Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and former head of the Russia program at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment. The two post-Soviet Chechen wars have been a constant focus in her research and she heads projects aiming to facilitate research on the North Caucasus. Wilhelmsen has been editor of the journal Internasjonal Politikk. She was a member of the Norwegian Government Expert Group for the Defense of Norway. She holds a PhD in Political Science and conducts research in the fields of critical security studies, Russian foreign and security policies and the radicalization of Islam in Eurasia.

FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe · Reichsratsstr. 13/5 · A-1010 Vienna Phone: +43 (1) 890 3811 15

Protocol > Does a Euro-Transatlantic Co-Operative Security Order have a Future? 11th and 12th of April 2018

I. Ideas to widen the scope of the work of FES ROCPE • Open to the regional public (through media and public events); • Engage networks like FLEET with other youth/expert networks; • Involve more experts in the field of economy, hard security but also culture; • Include non-western organisations like CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) and SCO (Shanghai Coopera- tion Organisation) into the projects; • Fine tune the approach of timing of a project, selection of subject matter and find a balance between in-depth analysis and broader analysis; • Invite experts from protracted conflict areas if possible; • Broaden the discussion about Islands of Cooperation, possibly connecting with confidence-building measures.

II. Inputs during the meeting

II.1. Analysis • Growing distrust of capabilities: Russia and USA see each other as failures and share a misplaced confidence conflict could be the solution and is winnable • Zeitgeist in Russia and USA is moving towards a serious conflict • Growing East-West division because of different understanding of modernization and the intensifying notion that we do not need each other. This happens against the backdrop of real shrinking interdependence. • Different understanding of a rule-based security order and a legitimate pushback • Political will and interest to move towards solutions or to break the downwards spiral of escalation is very limited or lacking at all; no vision of the future and even no willingness to think of it (breeding ground for populists) • Nobody is seriously managing the crisis • OSCE’s political fora are ideologically driven and gridlocked • Three major trends are not questioned: a. Deterrence is the only game in town b. Solidarity within the Western camp at any costs, no serious discussion within EU/USA or Russia on the course of a future security order c. Breaking international law is the new common sense and justified, because it has been done by somebody else before

FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe · Reichsratsstr. 13/5 · A-1010 Vienna Phone: +43 (1) 890 3811 15

Protocol > Does a Euro-Transatlantic Co-Operative Security Order have a Future? 11th and 12th of April 2018

II.2.a. Policy consulting • Present the work of the office to several ministries of Foreign Affairs with support of the members of the Advisory Board • Brand a new word for “détente” and introduce the concept to the expert community and the public (in the direction of “policy of balance” in Norway)- Provide short information sheets on pressing security issues • Organize side event on the Annual Security Review Conference to discuss the progress of the Structured Dialogue • Analysis on costs for countries and societies in case of a military conflict (Red Cross as an example for humanitari- an crises, OSCE as an example for security crises) • Promote a critical constructive “third way” based on debate and deliberation (rather than premature blame) that makes a convincing case for cooperation • Broaden the terms of discussion in and about countries in-between beyond pro-Western versus pro-Russian stan- ces (case for cooperation and perhaps even neutrality); East Block is not a monolith • Analysis on cooperation which still exists and works and is usually done quietly and effectively and find possibly common reasons for success; use it for “regional de-freezing” (example Kaliningrad) • Analysis of different approaches to détente in different countries in Europe and North America • 2020 Conference on Cooperation and Peace in commemoration of 30 years of Paris Charter and 10 years of the Astana Declaration • Vienna Security Conference as a track II diplomacy focused on cooperation and face-saving conflict-solving • Reward people for good ideas (award; fellowship), amplify political will and help maintain momentum of good policies

II.2.b. Reaching out to the public • Engage on every serious publication with the regional public. Support could come from the members of the Adviso- ry Board • Brand security (and concrete policy proposals) the way that resonates with people (example: 2 minutes to midnight)

FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe · Reichsratsstr. 13/5 · A-1010 Vienna Phone: +43 (1) 890 3811 15

Protocol > Does a Euro-Transatlantic Co-Operative Security Order have a Future? 11th and 12th of April 2018

Members of the Advisory Board (as of April 2018)

No Surname Name Position/ Institution E-Mail Director, Foundation Max van der 1. Berkvens Arjen [email protected] Stoel, Amsterdam Director, Amicus Europae Foundation, 2. Bil Ireneusz [email protected] Warsaw Senior Research Fellow Associate, 3. Claudin Carmen [email protected] CIDOB, Barcelona Research Associate, FES Regional 4. Dienes Alexandra Office for Cooperation and Peace in [email protected] Europe, Vienna Head of Research Division Eurasia, 5. Fischer Sabine Stiftung Wissenschaft Politik (SWP), [email protected] Berlin Special Adviser to the SG, OSCE, 6. Kemp Walter [email protected] Vienna Lecturer of International Relations, 7. Khelashvili Giorgi [email protected] Tbilisi State University Director, Russian International Affairs 8. Kortunov Andrey [email protected] Council, Moscow Head, FES Regional Office for 9. Krumm Reinhard Cooperation and Peace in Europe, [email protected] Vienna Ambassador, Permanent 10. Kupchyna Alena [email protected] Representative to the OSCE, Vienna Head, Website “Security and Human 11. Liechtenstein Stephanie [email protected] Rights Monitor”, Vienna 12. Maltschnig Maria Director, Renner Institute, Vienna [email protected] Vice President, Foundation for 13. Optenhögel Uwe European Progressive Studies, [email protected] Brussels Director, Kennan Institute, Woodrow 14. Rojansky Matthew [email protected] Wilson Center, Washington D.C. Director, Latvian Institute of 15. Spruds Andris [email protected] International Affairs, Riga Senior Adviser to the Crisis 16. Tanner Fred Management Centre, Swiss Ministry [email protected] of Foreign Affairs, Bern Research Associate, FES Regional 17. Weiß Simon Office for Cooperation and Peace in [email protected] Europe, Vienna Senior Research Fellow, Norwegian 18. Wilhelmsen Julie [email protected] Institute of International Affairs, Oslo

FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe · Reichsratsstr. 13/5 · A-1010 Vienna Phone: +43 (1) 890 3811 15