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The Arab Uprisings As Crises of Legitimacy

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The Arab Uprisings as Crises of Legitimacy Success and Failure of Strategies of Political Rule in Jordan and Algeria Dissertation zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen vorgelegt von Maria Josua, M.A. aus Schorndorf Tübingen 2014 Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 05.12.2014 Dekan: Prof. Dr. rer. soc. Josef Schmid 1. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Oliver Schlumberger 2. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Marie Duboc TABLE OF CONTENT List of Tables and Figures v List of Abbreviations vi A Note on the Use of Non-English Sources vii 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. The Puzzle 1 1.2. Research Design 5 1.3. Outline of This Study 6 2. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 7 2.1. Strategies of Political Rule in Authoritarian Regimes 7 2.1.1. Concepts of Legitimacy – Including a Twist towards Autocracies 8 2.1.2. Definition and Elements of Legitimacy 13 2.1.3. Crises of Legitimacy 16 2.1.4. The Relationship between Legitimacy and Stability 18 2.1.5. Co-optation: Legitimation with Benefits 21 2.1.6. The Role of Repression 25 2.2. Strategies of Political Rule in the Arab World 26 2.2.1. Literature on Legitimation and Repression in the Arab World 27 2.2.2. Crises of Former Sources of Legitimacy in the Arab World 31 2.2.2.1. Traditional Legitimacy 34 2.2.2.2. Material Legitimacy 36 2.2.2.3. Ideological Legitimacy 37 2.2.2.4. Religious Legitimacy 39 2.3. The Arab Uprisings as a Crisis of Legitimacy 40 2.4. Analytical Framework 47 2.4.1. An Alternative Framework for Analyzing Legitimation 47 i 2.4.2. General Hypotheses 53 2.4.3. Operationalization 55 2.5. Summary 59 3. METHODOLOGY 61 3.1. Methodological Challenges 61 3.2. Methods Used 63 3.3. Case Selection 65 3.4. Sources 68 3.5. Structure of the Analysis 70 4. EMPIRICAL STUDY I: JORDAN 72 4.1. Introduction 72 4.2. The Protests in Jordan 78 4.2.1. Protests before the Arab Uprisings 78 4.2.2. The Beginning of the Arab Uprisings in Jordan 79 4.2.3. The March 24 Youth 82 4.2.4. The Aftermath and the Subsequent Development of Protests 84 4.3. Strategies of Legitimation in Jordan 87 4.3.1. Structural Legitimation 87 4.3.2. Traditional Legitimation 101 4.3.3. Identity-related Legitimation 106 4.3.3.1 Nationalism 106 4.3.3.2 Religion 110 4.3.4. Material Legitimation 113 4.3.5. Personal Legitimation 120 4.3.6. Preliminary Conclusion: Success or Failure of Legitimation Strategies? 125 4.4. Repression in Jordan 126 4.4.1. Constraining Repression 126 4.4.2. Incapacitating Repression 129 4.5 Conclusion: Success and Failure of Strategies of Political Rule ii in Jordan 131 5. EMPIRICAL STUDY II: ALGERIA 134 5.1. Introduction 134 5.2. The Protests in Algeria 141 5.2.1. Protests before the Arab Uprisings 141 5.2.2. The Beginning of the Arab Uprisings in Algeria 142 5.2.3. The February 12, 2011 Demonstration 145 5.2.4. The Aftermath and the Subsequent Development of Protests 149 5.3. Strategies of Legitimation in Algeria 151 5.3.1. Structural Legitimation 151 5.3.2. Traditional Legitimation 166 5.3.3. Identity-related Legitimation 167 5.3.3.1 Nationalism 168 5.3.3.2 Religion 171 5.3.4. Material Legitimation 174 5.3.5. Personal Legitimation 182 5.3.6. Preliminary Conclusion: Success or Failure of Legitimation Strategies? 184 5.4. Repression in Algeria 185 5.4.1. Constraining Repression 185 5.4.2. Incapacitating Repression 188 5.5 Conclusion: Success and Failure of Strategies of Political Rule in Algeria 190 6. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS 192 6.1. The Crisis of Legitimacy Posed by the Arab Uprisings 192 6.2. Comparing the Use of Strategies within the Same Types 194 6.2.1. Structural Legitimation: Immediate Responses to Buy Time 194 6.2.2. Traditional Legitimation: The King’s Advantage 201 6.2.3. Identity-related Legitimation: It’s the Nation, Traitor! 202 iii 6.2.4. Material Legitimation: Bread and Fuel 204 6.2.5. Personal Legitimation: Rotation vs. Paralysis 206 6.2.6. Constraining Repression: The Autocrats’ Standard Repertoire 208 6.2.7. Incapacitating Repression: Low Death Toll, Full Prison Cells 210 6.3. Success, Addressees and Sequencing of Strategies 211 6.3.1. Modes of Legitimation Strategies 212 6.3.2. Success and Failure of Strategies towards Different Addressees 213 6.3.3. Sequencing Strategies of Political Rule 215 6.4. Testing and Reviewing the Hypotheses 216 6.5. Conclusion: Crises Overcome? 221 7. CONCLUSION : A FUTURE FOR ARAB AUTOCRATS ? 223 7.1. Summary of Thesis 223 7.2. Key Findings 225 7.3. Added Value and Limits of the Analytical Framework 229 7.4. Avenues for Further Research 231 7.5. Outlook on Jordan’s and Algeria’s Future 234 7.6. A Future for Arab Autocrats? 236 APPENDIX 238 Bibliography 238 Newspapers, News Websites and Agencies 256 List of Interview Questions in Jordan (March – April 2011) 257 List of Interview Questions in Algeria (October – November 2013) 258 iv LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Table 2.1: Sources of Legitimacy in Arab States during the 20 th Century 33 Table 2.2: Crises of Classical Sources of Legitimacy in the Arab World 40 Table 2.3: Strategies of Political Rule and Addressees’ Responses 52 Table 2.4: Framework: Types, Contents and Modes of Legitimation in Autocracies 53 Table 4.1: Structural Legitimation Strategies in Jordan 101 Table 4.2: Traditional Legitimation Strategies in Jordan 106 Table 4.3: Identity-Related Legitimation Strategies in Jordan – Nationalism 110 Table 4.4: Identity-Related Legitimation Strategies in Jordan – Religion 113 Table 4.5: Material Legitimation Strategies in Jordan 120 Table 4.6: Personal Legitimation Strategies in Jordan 125 Table 4.7: Repression in Jordan 130 Table 4.8: Summary of All Measures in Jordan 133 Table 5.1: Structural Legitimation Strategies in Algeria 166 Table 5.2: Identity-Related Legitimation Strategies in Algeria – Nationalism 171 Table 5.3: Identity-Related Legitimation Strategies in Algeria – Religion 174 Table 5.4: Material Legitimation Strategies in Algeria 181 Table 5.5: Personal Legitimation Strategies in Algeria 184 Table 5.6: Repression in Algeria 189 Table 5.7: Summary of All Measures in Algeria 191 Table 6.1: Patterns of Modes of Legitimation Strategies in Jordan and Algeria 212 Figure 2.1: Co-optation as a Subset of Legitimation 24 Figure 2.2: Regime Types and Intensity of Crisis during the Arab Uprisings 41 Figure 2.3: Conceptualizing Co-optation 58 v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ANLC Association Nationale de Lutte contre la Corruption AQIM Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb CNCD Coordination nationale pour le changement et la démocratie CNDDC Comité national pour la défense des droits des chômeurs CSO Civil Society Organization CSS Center for Strategic Studies DA Dinar Algérien DRS Département du Renseignement et de la Sécurité FFS Front des Forces Socialistes FIS Front Islamique du Salut FLN Front de Libération Nationale GIA Groupe Islamique Armée GID General Intelligence Department GIZ Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GSPC Groupe Salafiste pour la Prédication et le Combat HRW Human Rights Watch IAF Islamic Action Front IEC Independent Elections Commission IMF International Monetary Fund IRI International Republican Institute JD Jordanian Dinar LADDH Ligue Algérienne pour la Défense des Droits de l’Homme MB Muslim Brotherhood MENA Middle East and North Africa MP Member of Parliament MSP Mouvement pour la Société et la Paix NCHR National Centre for Human Rights NDC National Dialogue Committee NGO Non-Governmental Organization RCD Rassemblement pour la Culture et la Démocratie vi RND Rassemblement National Démocratique UGTA Union Générale des Travailleurs Algériens UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees USAID United States Agency for International Development A Note on the Use of Non-English Sources Transliteration: In the spelling of Arabic words, I used the transliteration system of the International Journal of Middle East Studies , which can be found online at http://ijmes.ws.gc.cuny.edu/files/2014/04/TransChart.pdf . Names of places, persons and companies were spelt in their most common forms. Translations: I translated quotations from French, Arabic or German sources into English in order to facilitate reading. Nevertheless, I have left some central terms in their original language and added the translation in brackets. vii 1. INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. THE PUZZLE In January 2011, severe protests shook the Arab world. Protesters on the streets of Cairo shouted: “Illegitimate, illegitimate” 1 and called for the downfall of the Egyptian regime. Similar scenes could be witnessed in many other countries. In stark contrast, in 2009 a pioneer study ranking 72 states across the world according to their level of legitimacy stated that “claims about legitimacy crisis or even failure in countries like Egypt and Algeria – to take two widely cited examples – turn out to be exaggerations” (Gilley 2009: 26). Despite this scholarly assessment, many Arab citizens obviously did not per- ceive of their ruling regimes as legitimate. In the course of 2011 the rulers of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen were ousted, protests occurred in almost all Arab countries, and in many countries struggles for power are still ongoing. Michael Hudson even states that “[a] reading of the first year of the Arab uprisings suggests that they are all about the perceived illegitimacy of rulers and regimes. So, perhaps it should be back to the drawing board for students of legitimacy in the Arab world” (Hudson 2014: 253). In those cases where rulers were toppled it can be assumed that their legitimacy was not sufficient to stay in power.
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