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University of Malaya Kuala Lumpur بسم هللا الرحمن الرحيم ريقيAالهم اسئلك باسمك النور ان تنور لي ط FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS ON THE POTENTIAL OF PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA سن ي ح ا ل, سن حا ل ,, علي, ا ﻻه , ص , طه,ا ل اقن ل كريم ALI WADI ABBAS AL-FATLAWI Malaya THESIS SUBMITTED IN FULFILLMENTof OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY FACULTY OF ENGINEERING UniversityUNIVERSITY OF MALAYA KUALA LUMPUR 2015 UNIVERSITY MALAYA ORIGINAL LITERARY WORK DECLARATION Name of the candidate: Ali Wadi Abbas Al-Fatlawi Registration/Matric No: KHA100035 Name of the Degree: Doctor of Philosophy Title of Project Paper/ Research Report/ Dissertation / Thesis (“this work”): Feasibility Analysis on the Potential of Photovoltaic Applications in Peninsular Malaysia. Field of Study: Energy I do solemnly and sincerely declare that: (1) I am the sole author /writer of this work; (2) This work is original; Malaya (3) Any use of any work in which copyright exists was done by way of fair dealings and any expert or extract from, or reference to or reproduction of any copyright work has been disclosed expressly and sufficiently and the title of the Work, and its authorship has been acknowledged in this Work; of (4) I do not have any actual knowledge nor do I ought reasonably to know that the making of this work constitutes an infringement of any copyright work; (5) I hereby assign all and every rights in the copyrights to this Work to the University of Malaya ( UM), who henceforth shall be owner of the copyright in this Work and that any reproduction or use in any form or by any means whatsoever is prohibited without the written consent of UM having been first had and obtained actual knowledge; (6) I am fully aware that if in the course of making this Work I have infringed any copyright whether internationally or otherwise, I may be subject to legal action or any other action as may be determined by UM. Candidate’sUniversity Signature Date: Subscribed and solemnly declared before, Witness’s Signature Date: Name: Designation: ii ABSTRACT This study was conducted to enhance the utilization of renewable energy resources to contribute towards national electricity supply sustainability and sustainable socio-economic development. Four methodologies were developed starting with solar radiation modeling using artificial neural networks (ANNs), followed by modeling and investigating the feasibility of grid-connected solar PV applications under the Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) program. After that, a sensitivity analysis was developed based on economic indicators. Next, a solar PV power hybrid standalone street light application was modeled for remote areas where electricity extension can be made cost-effective. Lastly, people's acceptance, and obstacles to using solar energy applications were investigated. The outcomes of the resource analyses show that the ANN solar maps are sufficiently accurate to be utilizedMalaya with solar radiation applications in Peninsular Malaysia, whereby from all 12 designed models, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was less than 6.07%. The model withof a MAPE value of 4.04% and correlation (R) of 0.965 attained a fairly steady reading, which can be safely inferred as a high reliability level in terms of weather data prediction. Solar radiation mapping indicates the annual radiation in Peninsular Malaysia is between 3.88 and 5.13 kWh/m2/day. However, the northeast region has the highest potential for solar energy throughout the year. In this context, the renewable energy outputs from the grid-connected solar PV in pilot locations varied between a maximum of 1.312 MWh/kWp in Lubok Merbau and a minimum of 1.010 MWh/kWp in Cameron Highlands,University with capacity factors of 15% and 11.5% respectively. The cost of electricity ranges from $0.36/kWh for the most favorable locations to $0.28/kWh for less favorable locations, while the mean cost in the entire peninsular region is about $0.31/kWh. Government incentives are expected to reduce the payback period by approximately 73%, with the current payback periods ranging from a minimum of 7.4 years in Beyan Lepas to a maximum of 9.6 years in iii Cameron Highlands, while the mean payback period in Peninsular Malaysia is expected to be 8 years. According to a street light application analysis, using renewable energy-based solar radiation for street lighting is not recommended in Malaysia mostly due to the frequent occurrence of continuously heavy cloud cover and rainy days. Such conditions require a proportionate increase in PV size as well as number of batteries in order to adequately harvest the required energy in a shorter time span, hence causing an overall increase in the cost of providing street light poles. Based on the social acceptance of solar energy technology, the survey shows significant potential to implement solar PV applications in Malaysia. Nonetheless, there has also been considerable failure to provide promotional informative features of solar PV applications, where people are still not even familiar with the term Feed- in-Tariff. However, around 36% are potentially ready to begin PV projects but require loans to reduce the starting capital costs, even if the loans stipulate sharing the FIT benefits with banks in advance. Keywords Solar Energy in Malaysia; Solar resources Assessment; Artificial neural network; Solar Applications; Modeling PV applications; Social Acceptance. University of Malaya iv ABSTRAK Kajian ini adalah satu kajian kontemporari dibangunkan untuk meningkatkan penggunaan sumber tenaga asli yang boleh diperbaharui untuk menyumbang ke arah negara kemampanan bekalan elektrik dan pembangunan sosio-ekonomi yang mampan. Empat kaedah dibangunkan bermula dengan pemodelan sinaran suria menggunakan rangkaian neural ANN. Kemudian permodelan dan penyiasatan kemungkinan aplikasi PV solar yang diambung dengan grid di bawah program “Feed-in-Tariff” untuk membangunkan satu analisis sensitiviti berdasarkan petunjuk ekonomi. Kemudian model solar kuasa PV hibrid bersendirian untuk permohonan lampu jalan di kawasan-kawasan pedalaman di mana sambungan elektrik boleh dibuat pada kos yang efektif. Akhir sekali, menyiasat penerimaan dan halangan ke atas pengunaan aplikasi solar-tenaga rakyat. Hasil analisis sumber ini menunjukkanMalaya bahawa peta solar menggunakan ANN adalah cukup tepat untuk aplikasi radiasi solar di Semenanjung Malaysia, di mana 12 daripada satu model yang direka, iaitu ofMAPE adalah kurang daripada 6.07%. Walau bagaimanapun, model yang mempunyai nilai MAPE daripada 4.04% dan korelasi (R) 0.965 telah mencapai bacaan agak stabil yang boleh diambil dengan selamat dan disimpulkan sebagai tahap kebolehpercayaan yang tinggi dari segi ramalan data cuaca. Pemetaan sinaran suria ini menunjukkan sinaran tahunan di Semenanjung Malaysia antara 3.88 dan 5.13 kWh/m2/day dan rantau timur laut mempunyai potensi solar tenaga yang paling tinggi sepanjang tahun. Hasil tenaga boleh diperbaharui daripada PV grid yang berkaitan di lokasi perintis diubah antaraUniversity maksimum 1.312 MWh / kWp di Lubok Merbau dan sekurang-kurangnya 1.010 MWh / kWp di Cameron Highlands, dengan faktor-faktor keupayaan masing-masing sebanyak 15% dan 11.5%. Kos elektrik untuk lokasi yang paling baik adalah $ 0.36/kWh dan $ 0.28/kWh untuk lokasi yang kurang, manakala harga purata di seluruh Semenanjung adalah kira-kira $ 0.31/kWh. Insentif kerajaan dijangka akan mengurangkan tempoh bayar balik kira-kira 73% v tempoh bayar balik semasa terdiri daripada nilai minimum sebanyak 7.4 tahun di Bayan Lepas kepada nilai maksimum sebanyak 9.6 tahun di Cameron Highlands, manakala tempoh bayar balik minimum di Semenanjung Malaysia adalah dijangka 8 tahun. Analisis cahaya permohonan jalan menunjukkan bahawa menggunakan sinaran-tenaga boleh diperbaharui berasaskan solar untuk lampu kuasa jalanan tidak digalakkan di Malaysia kerana banyak kejadian awan terus berat dan hari hujan yang kerap berlaku dan memerlukan satu peningkatan berkadar dalam saiz PV serta bilangan bateri untuk secukupnya untuk menuai tenaga yang diperlukan dalam jangka masa yang lebih pendek. Dengan itu, ini menyebabkan peningkatan keseluruhan dalam kos menyediakan tiang lampu jalan. Berdasarkan penerimaan teknologi tenaga solar di kalangan rakyat Malaysia, kaji selidik menunjukkan bahawa potensi yang besar dalam penggunaan aplikasi PV solar di Malaysia. MalayaTetapi ada juga kegagalan yang ketara kepada ciri-ciri promosi informatif aplikasi PV solar di mana orang yang masih tidak tahu jangka “Feed-in-Tariff”. Walau bagaimanapun,of terdapat kira-kira 36% daripada orang-orang yang bersedia untuk berkongsi dengan bank untuk mendapatkan manfaat daripada program FiT. Perkara ini perlu tekun dilihat dengan serius oleh bank-bank dengan mengunakkan kajian daya maju mereka. University vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Before everything else I do, I like to thank ALLAH the greatest creator for all the blessings He has granted me in the form physical health, sane mind willing to study hard and the conducive environmental situations He has put me in surrounded by lots of good friends who have always given me the encouragement to jointly study together and to share and solve our problems together. He has also given me the tenacity and determination to face all the challenges during my work. I also hereby send my salam to Prophet Muhammad and Ahl Al-Bayt, who are our exemplary embodiments of good deed performers through history teaching us how we should inwardly feel when our fellow brothers are in trouble to solve deadly problems that face the world of today. Malaya I would like to thank all my family members, especially, my mother and my father, my wife, my brothers and my sisters who never fail toof give me that much needed moral support and their continuous love without which I would not have made my study here in Malaysia. I would like to express my deep gratitude and profound respect to Prof. Nasrudin Abd. Rahim and Prof. Saidur Rahman, for their acceptance to be my supervisors in this project and for all that I have learned from them during the research. Their continuous help and support in all stages of this thesis are immensely priceless.
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