Issue 1 (15), 2019

AFRICA

CENTRAL ASIA CENTRAL

KAZAKHSTAN ECONOMY

SOUTH AFRICA DIPLOMACY

ASIA AZERBAIJAN TRADE FOREIGN POLICY TRANSPORT

CAUCASUS HISTORY WORLDUKRAINE

ARMENIA SUB SAHARAN

ASIA PACIFICBALKANS GEORGIA

• ’S PROSPECTS • FOREIGN POLICY • BEYOND EUROPE

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 1 (15), 2019 1

BOARD OF ADVISERS

Dr. Dimitar Bechev (Bulgaria, Director of the European Policy Institute) Issue 1 (15), 2019 Dr. Iulian Chifu Analysis and Early Warning Center) (Romania, Director of the Conflict Ukraine and the World Amb., Dr. Sergiy Korsunsky (Ukraine, Director of the Diplomatic Academy under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine)

Editors Dr. Igor Koval (Ukraine, Rector of Odessa National Dr. Hanna Shelest University by I.I. Mechnikov) Dr. Mykola Kapitonenko Amb., Dr. Sergey Minasyan (Armenia, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Armenia to Romania) Publisher: Published by NGO “Promotion of Intercultural (Germany, Director of the Cooperation” (Ukraine), Centre of International Marcel Röthig Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Ukraine) of the Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Studies (Ukraine), with the financial support Foundation in Ukraine, the Black Sea Trust. James Nixey (United Kingdom, Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, the UA: Ukraine Analytica Royal Institute of International Affairs) analytical journal in English on International is the first Ukrainian Relations, Politics and Economics. The journal Dr. Róbert Ondrejcsák (Slovakia, State Secretary, is aimed for experts, diplomats, academics, Ministry of Defence) students interested in the international relations and Ukraine in particular. Amb., Dr. Oleg Shamshur (Ukraine, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to Contacts: France) website: http://ukraine-analytica.org/ e-mail: [email protected] Dr. Stephan De Spiegeleire (The Netherlands, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ Director Defence Transformation at The Hague ukraineanalytica Center for Strategic Studies) Twitter: https://twitter.com/UA_Analytica Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze (Ukraine, Vice- The views and opinions expressed in Prime Minister on European and Euroatlantic articles are those of the authors and do not Integration of Ukraine)

Analytica, its editors, Board of Advisors or Dr. Dimitris Triantaphyllou (Greece, Director of necessarily reflect the position of UA: Ukraine donors. the Center for International and European Studies, Kadir Has University ()) ISSN 2518-7481 Dr. Asle Toje (Norway, Research Director at the 500 copies Norwegian Nobel Institute)

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 1 (15), 2019 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS

“UKRAINIAN FOREIGN POLICY BEYOND THE EU AND NATO INTEGRATION: LESSONS STILL TO LEARN...... 3 Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”

UKRAINE AND CHINA: GROWING MUTUAL INTEREST AMIDST INCREASING INTERNATIONAL TURBULENCE...... 7 Sergiy Gerasymchuk

SOME ELEMENTS OF STRATEGY AND PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE’S RELATIONS WITH THE COUNTRIES OF THE EAST ASIAN REGION...... 15 Ihor Lossovskyi

UKRAINIAN POLICY TOWARDS CENTRAL ASIAN STATES: WHICH BRIDGES DO WE NEED? ...... 23 Viktoriia Khalanchuk

FOREIGN POLICY IN SOUTH CAUCASUS: IS UKRAINE IN THE GAME?...... 31 Olena Snigyr

UKRAINIAN PERSPECTIVES IN AFRICA...... 39 Liubov Abravitova

SEARCHING FOR A UKRAINE-EU COOPERATIVE APPROACH WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF IMPLEMENTING POLICIES IN AFRICA...... 46 Oleksandr Mishyn

IN SEARCH OF WAYS TO THE BALKANS...... 54 Natalia Ishchenko (Gumba)

2 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 1 (15), 2019 UKRAINE AND CHINA: GROWING MUTUAL INTEREST AMIDST INCREASING INTERNATIONAL TURBULENCE

Sergiy Gerasymchuk Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”

The article focuses on the ups and downs in the bilateral China-Ukraine relations, explains the gaps in the bilateral political dialogue after the Revolution of Dignity in 2013-2014, and outlines priority areas for cooperation, including economic cooperation. Besides, the most successful projects and initiatives are mentioned and promising areas of cooperation are discussed. However, risks rooted in the deterioration of China and the West relations are also tackled, and recommendations for a balanced foreign policy of Ukraine towards China are suggested.

Shaping Ukrainian foreign policy towards Consideration of the mentioned trends China is a challenging task nowadays. First, is a necessary prerequisite for shaping the history of the bilateral relations had both high and low points. Promising periods in Beijing. Above and beyond, Ukraine has the bilateral relations were often followed effective and efficient policies towards by periods of mutual frustration and balance between Beijing, Brussels, Berlin, disappointment. Sustainability of political andto consider Washington. the vital If previously necessity the of findinggrowing a relations remains fragile, mostly depending Chinese presence at the European markets on high-level political dialogue and on the was perceived by European leaders and relations between the leaders of the two business as an opportunity to fuel European states. However, it is impossible to ignore economies with investments, in the recent the fact of the growing Chinese presence in years, disapproval can be observed; the the region of Central and Eastern Europe, EU and the United States criticize China Chinese regional initiatives including the for the lack of reciprocity in opening up its global “Silk Road Economic Belt” (further markets, assertive attempts to gain control known as “One Belt One Road” and “Belt over critical infrastructure objects, lack of and Road Initiative”) and the regional transparency of the Chinese companies’ “16+1” format. Also, there is a necessity to procurement procedures. consider the growth of trade and economic ties, Chinese interest in Ukraine’s high-tech Under such circumstances, has to apply and agricultural potential, Chinese vocal expectations to establish a free trade area for engaging Chinese investments while and visa-free regime with Ukraine. preservingits efforts to Ukrainian find an appropriate national approachinterests

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 1 (15), 2019 7 and avoiding steps that may eventually a close partner to the EU and Russia. hurt interests of other global players and Moreover, China also had direct interest in Ukraine’s Western allies in the region. the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.

Background of the Current Ukraine- The relations between the two countries China Relations: Ups And Downs, became less dynamic in the time of Kuchma’s Missed Opportunities and Promising successor, (2005-2010). Initiatives One of the key reasons for the deterioration of the bilateral relations was, on the one Attempts to develop relations with China hand, the openly pro-Western preferences and simultaneously to proceed with the declared by President Yushchenko alongside European and Euro-Atlantic integration with breaking ties with the Russian have already been made by Ukraine under Federation (whereas the Chinese side the presidency of Leonid Kuchma (1994- cautiously avoided questioning the Russian 2005). Engaging China economically role in the post-Soviet space)2. and politically, perceiving Beijing as an important partner in the international However, even more challenging for the arena was rooted in the multi-vector foreign relations between the two countries was policy applied by President Kuchma. He paid

the fact that Ukrainian officials invited high-ranking Taiwanese officials to attend it is impossible to ignore late 2005, leading to a stalling in senior-level a semi-official international conference in the fact of the growing Chinese exchanges during the Viktor Yushchenko 3 «presence in the region administration . Since that time and up to of Central and Eastern Europe the current moment, China consistently supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and expected Ukraine in manner of reciprocity to be committed to the several visits to China – in December 1995 “one China” policy. Sensitivity of China about and in November 2002. On 03 April 2003, at this issue is only growing and therefore has the meeting in Beijing between President Hu to be considered by the Ukrainian politicians Jintao and President Kuchma, China’s head if they expect further fruitful cooperation with Beijing. key partner in Eastern Europe.1 Presumably, Kuchmaof state officiallywas trying declared to engage Ukraine China to beas a The presidency of Viktor Yanukovych (2010- counterbalance to both Russia and the EU. 2014) led to a new U-turn in the bilateral At the same time, China was developing contacts. In the beginning of his term, Yanukovych was trying to conceal his pro- from strong diplomatic and economic ties Russian sentiments by exploiting Kuchma’s withits strategy the country, towards which Europe was simultaneously and benefited legacy of the multi-vector policy (although

1 Z. Liu, The Analysis of the Relationship between China and Ukraine, China-CEEC Think Tanks’ Network, 11 January 2018 [http://16plus1-thinktank.com/1/20160111/1095.html access: 16 June 2018]. 2 A. Goncharuk, E. Hobova, V. Kiktenko, O. Koval, S. Koshovy, Foreign Policy Audit. How to Revive Ukrainian-Chinese Relations, “Euromaidan Press”, 07 December 2016 [http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/12/07/ukraine-china- international-relations-silk-road-trade/ access: 16 December 2018]. 3 Y. Dong, Ukraine and Chinese Investment: Caution Amid Potential?, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 06 December 2017 [https://www.fpri.org/article/2017/09/ukraine-chinese-investment-caution-amid-potential/ access: 16 December 2018].

8 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 1 (15), 2019 the contacts with China were mostly utilized governmental Cooperation Committee, to justify objections to the Western norms and values that Yanukovych did not share). agriculture, energy resources, infrastructure to strengthen cooperation in the fields of Both in 2011 and in 2013, there were Ukraine also expressed its readiness to join exchanges of state visits of the Chinese and theconstruction, “Silk Road Economic finance, Belt”. and The high-tech. Chinese Ukrainian leaders accompanied by signing side expresses welcome for this and is ready of important bilateral documents – e.g. a to discuss relevant cooperation with the joint statement upgrading the countries’ Ukrainian side.6 friendly and cooperative relations to a strategic partnership.4 An important content of the China-Ukraine strategic Although the dynamics of the partnership was support to each other on bilateral contacts was low in issues concerning national sovereignty, «2015-2016, in 2017 there was a breakthrough in the relations two sides agreed that cooperation in the reunification, and territorial integrity. The science and technology, aviation, aerospace, agriculture,fields of trade and andinfrastructure economy, construction investment, However, the timing was not favourable is a priority in the future development of considering the fact that the visit took place bilateral relations.5 already in the period of mass manifestations in Ukraine further known as the Revolution of In the course of the Chinese President’s visit Dignity, followed by the fall of the Yanukovych to Ukraine in June 2011, the Joint Declaration regime. China is known for prioritizing on Establishment and Development of contacts between leaders and for sensitivity Strategic Partnership Relations between towards revolutionary movements, Ukraine and China was signed. The visit which are often perceived in Beijing with of the President of Ukraine in December a certain suspicion. In this regard, the 2013 was marked with signing the Treaty promising declarations had low chances for on Friendship and Cooperation between implementation in a short-term period. Ukraine and the People’s Republic of China, the Joint Declaration on Further Deepening Engaging China – Assessment of the of Strategic Partnership Relations between Efforts of the Current Ukrainian Ukraine and the People’s Republic of Political Leadership China, and the Program of Development of Strategic Partnership Relations between Notwithstanding the circumstances of Ukraine and the People’s Republic of China the fall of President Yanukovych, further for the years 2014-2018. The parties agreed development of the relations between to strengthen high-level exchanges and to the two states continued under President enhance strategic mutual trust as well as to Poroshenko. Interestingly, despite close enhance the role of the China-Ukraine Inter- political ties with the Russian Federation and

4 Z. Liu, The Analysis of the Relationship between China and Ukraine, China-CEEC Think Tanks’ Network, 11 January 2018 [http://16plus1-thinktank.com/1/20160111/1095.html access: 16 June 2018]. 5 Z. Liu, The Analysis of the Relationship between China and Ukraine, China-CEEC Think Tanks’ Network, 11 January 2018 [http://16plus1-thinktank.com/1/20160111/1095.html access: 16 June 2018]. 6 Xi Jinping Holds Talks with President Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine, the Two Heads of State Agree to Further Deepen China-Ukraine Strategic Partnership, Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Kingdom of Norway, 06 December 2013 [http://www.chinese-embassy.no/eng/zyxw/t1107553.htm access: 14 December, 2018].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 1 (15), 2019 9 sensitivity towards the Russian role in the initiative, in relation to which Ukraine’s priority is to include Chinese technological in mid-March 2014 to propose a peaceful possibilities and capital in the development settlementregion, China of thewas “Crimean one of the issue” first in countries the form of the country’s economy. The Ukrainian side of an international coordination mechanism, also took this opportunity to highlight the which had to include all stakeholders. These importance of China’s consistent position calls and China’s position, however, were with regards to respecting the territorial ignored by Kyiv, its Western partners, and integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and not Russia.7 recognizing Russia’s temporary occupation of the Ukrainian territory in Crimea. Although the dynamics of the bilateral contacts was low in 2015-2016, in 2017 In addition, according to the announcement there was a breakthrough in the relations. made by Vice-Premier Ma Kai, China After the meeting of the President of Ukraine assigned USD 7 billion for cooperation with with the Chinese leader Ukraine, and this sum can be increased Xi Jinping at the beginning of 2017 (in the in case of a successful implementation of framework of Davos World Economic Forum), projects (although none of the documents the parties agreed to resume activities of the Ukraine-China Intergovernmental investments, and the Action Plan has just Cooperation Commission and, indeed, generalsigned in phrasesDecember about 2017 mentionsdeepening specific the on 05 December 2017, Ukraine’s First cooperation in certain areas without any Deputy Premier and Minister for Economic 8 During Development and Trade Stepan Kubiv and the meeting, Poroshenko handed over an China’s Vice-Premier Ma Kai launched the invitationreference to thePresident specific Xi projects).to visit Ukraine9, third session of the respective commission. although the probability of such a visit is It is worth mentioning that the scheduled low – the Chinese leadership will rather wait time of the commission’s meeting was 2015 for the results of the presidential elections but both parties took the time before formal in Ukraine in 2019 and only afterwards will steps on enhancing cooperation. However, make a decision. the meeting of the leaders in Davos was an indicator for the respective agencies of both Political interest towards China in 2018 countries to proceed with practical steps. was repeatedly expressed at the level of the executive and legislative institutions of At a meeting with Vice-Premier of the Ukraine. The 2018 Analytical Report to the State Council of the People’s Republic of Annual Address of the President of Ukraine China Ma Kai in December 2017, President to the Verkhovna Rada draws attention to Poroshenko assessed the results of the global projects of the People’s Republic of Commission’s third session as positive, China, in particular to the fact that 56% of all Chinese foreign investments were directed involvement in China’s “One Belt, One Road” to countries taking part in the New Silk confirming Ukraine’s interest in continuing

7 A. Goncharuk, E. Hobova, V. Kiktenko, O. Koval, S. Koshovy, Foreign Policy Audit. How to Revive Ukrainian-Chinese Relations, “Euromaidan Press”, 07 December 2016 [http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/12/07/ukraine-china- international-relations-silk-road-trade/ access: 16 December 2018]. 8 Ukrainian Prism: Foreign Policy 2017, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”, 2017 [http://prismua.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/A5-prizma2017_eng_web.pdf access: 09 February 2019]. 9 A. Honcharuk, V. Kiktenko, Ukraine–China Relations, Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, 04 April 2018 [http://sinologist.com.ua/en/honcharuk-kiktenko-v-ukraine-china-relations-november-2017-february-2018- truman-index-2018-2-6-p-14-19/ access: 02 February 2018].

10 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 1 (15), 2019 Road project. The document also mentions growth in the bilateral trade turnover is China’s regional initiatives, especially the being observed. In 2013, the trade turnover “16+1” format, and suggests that Ukraine was at the level of USD 10,627,431; in 2014 – should join the initiative.10 USD 8,085,079; in 2015 – USD 6,170,070. In 2016 and 2017, gradual growth was On the one hand, efforts in this regard, if observed – USD 6,520,216 and USD successful, may result in explicit demonstration 7,688,002 respectively. of China’s interest towards Ukraine as an actor in the region of Central and Eastern Europe. However, on the other hand, the Ukrainian government has to take into consideration The area of the primary the growing suspicions of Berlin and Brussels, interest of the Chinese state who allegedly believe that the primary goal «has been the Ukrainian of the Chinese initiative goes far beyond pure military-industrial complex economic cooperation. The respective policies of Germany should be taken as a sample in the process of the decision-making related to the Ukrainian engagement in the initiative, During 2018, bilateral trade in goods and, probably, the status of an observer in the between Ukraine and China increased to USD 8.8 billion. According to First Vice-

ConstantInitiative has Economic to be gained Interests first. upPrime to USD Minister 10 billion Stepan a year. Kubiv,11 in five years Despite the ups and downs in the political Ukraine and China plan to bring this figure dialogue, the lack of high-level bilateral The area of the primary interest of the contacts, and delays in implementing Chinese state has been the Ukrainian political declarations, some spheres of the military-industrial complex. China has bilateral cooperation were in the focus of always been interested in the technologies the economic actors notwithstanding the and hi-tech products Ukraine was able to personalities of the leaders both in China provide, whereas Ukrainian producers were and in Ukraine. That is no surprise since interested in the huge Chinese market.12 for Ukraine China is an important economic China has purchased from Ukraine ships, partner and the Chinese interest in Ukraine tanks, aircrafts and an aircraft carrier, is also gradually growing. different types of power systems for aircraft carriers and large ships, supersonic According to the statistics of bilateral trade, advanced training aircraft, key equipment after some slowdown in 2015, the gradual for tank engines and air-to-air missiles, as

10 Аналітична доповідь до щорічного Послання Президента України до Верховної Ради України “Про внутрішнє та зовнішнє становище України в 2018 році” (Analytical Report to the President’s Address to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine “Regarding the Internal and External Situation in 2018”), National Institute for Strategic Studies, 2018 [http://www.niss.gov.ua/public/File/Analit_Dopovid_Poslannia_2018.pdf access: 05 March 2019]. 11 Україна та Китай наростили товарообіг між країнами до $8,8 мільярда — Кубів (Ukraine and China Increased Bilateral Trade to $8.8 Billion – Kubiv), “Business.ua”, 25 January 2019 [https://business.ua/news/item/4547- ukraina-ta-kytai-narostyly-tovaroobih-mizh-krainamy-do-usd8-8-miliarda-kubiv]. 12 I. Ava-Pointon, The Dragon and the Trident: A Quick Introduction to Sino-Ukrainian Relations in the Era of the New Silk Roads, “The Sundial Press”, 10 May 2018 [http://www.sundialpress.co/2018/05/10/dragon-trident-quick- introduction-sino-ukrainian-relations-era-new-silk-roads/ access: 13 February, 2019].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 1 (15), 2019 11 well as engines for high-altitude helicopters.13 complex with a daily crushing capacity of 1,500 metric tons and storage capacity China’s military modernization. of 180,000 metric tons) and in Mykolaiv Ukraine has played a significant role in (grain port terminal with the capacity of 2.5 Moreover, Chinese civil programs also million tons per year and storage capacity of 125,000 tons). In 2015, Ukraine overtook Ukrainian counterparts. For example, the the US as China’s number one corn supplier.16 “Snowbenefited Dragon”/“Xue from cooperation Long” icebreaker, with which the Despite the Russian efforts to label Ukraine plays a crucial role in the implementation as a failed state, to limit economic potential of the Chinese Polar Strategy, was also of Ukraine, and to invigorate Russian allies purchased from Ukraine.14 to side with Moscow, China has mainly been following its own interests. Since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the volume of related industrial cooperation. Political agricultural trade between Ukraine and contactsAnother hi-techin 2017 cooperation resulted in fieldthe isrenewed space- China has increased by 56%.17 Ukraine and China program of cooperation in the space sphere until 2020. The respective Acquiring of the Ukrainian Bank for agreement ensures implementation of Reconstruction and Development by China’s more than 70 projects, most of which are Bohai Commodity Exchange in 201718 gives implemented under the umbrella of the a signal about Chinese desire to engage Chinese ambitious Moon program and further in Ukrainian economy. mission on the research of the Solar System as well as creation of new materials and Ukraine’s participation in China remote sensing of the Earth.15 International Import Expo (CIIE) 2018 on 05-08 November was one of the remarkable results of the year. The EBRD supported that has been developing, despite the Ukraine’s participation in CIIE 2018 within politicalYet, one turmoil traditional either field in ofUkraine cooperation or in the framework of the EU’s EU4Business the bilateral relations, is cooperation in initiative, which helps Ukrainian companies to enter new markets.

(Chinathe field National of agriculture. Cereals, Oils, China’s and Noble Foodstuffs Agri, Also in June 2018, CNNC (China National Corporation),wholly owned has by two the assets influential in Ukraine: COFCO Nuclear Corporation) signed a Memorandum on Possibilities of International Cooperation

in Mariupol (sunflower seed processing 13 Z. Liu, The Analysis of the Relationship between China and Ukraine, China-CEEC Think Tanks’ Network, 11 January 2018 [http://16plus1-thinktank.com/1/20160111/1095.html access: 16 June 2018]. 14 S. Gerasymchuk, Сніжний дракон у полярних льодах – Арктична політика КНР (Snow Dragon in Polar Ice – the Arctic Policy of PRC), “Ukrayinskyy Interes”, 29 January 2018 [https://uain.press/articles/snizhnyj-drakon-u- polyarnyh-lodah-arktychna-polityka-knr-682723 access: 14 February 2019]. 15 Ukraine, China Renew Cooperation in Space Sphere until 2020, “112 International”, 28 November 2017 [https://112.international/ukraine-top-news/ukraine-china-renew-cooperation-in-space-sphere- until-2020-23109.html access: 12 February 2019]. 16 O. Mykal, Why China Is Interested in Ukraine, “The Diplomat”, 10 March 2016 [https://thediplomat.com/2016/03/why-china-is-interested-in-ukraine/ access: 16 February 2019]. 17 O. Oleinikova, Will Chinese Investment Sacrifice Ukraine’s Dreams of Democracy to Economic Needs?,

dreams-of-democracy-to-economic-needs-61151 access: 05 March 2019]. “The Conversation”, 11 August 2016 [https://theconversation.com/will-chinese-investment-sacrifice-ukraines- 18 J. Brooke, With Russia on the Sidelines, China Moves Aggressively into Ukraine, “Atlantic Council”, 05 January 2018 [http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/with-russia-on-the-sidelines-china-moves-aggressively-into- ukraine access: 12 February 2019].

12 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 1 (15), 2019 In 2017, China undertook another step for construction of the third and fourth blocks establishing closer relations with Ukraine, ofwith Khmelnytskyi Enerhoatom power on plant. finishing Before that, the proposing to set up a mutual visa-free in December 2017, a Memorandum of regime between the two countries. The Understanding was signed between the State respective negotiations have not started but will start immediately when the Ukrainian National Energy Administration of China for side will inform China about the readiness Agency on Energy Efficiency of Ukraine and for the respective talks, according to the energy, and alternative energy sources. information from the Chinese Embassy to cooperation in energy efficiency, renewable Ukraine.19 In April 2018, China unilaterally Another new trend (which is corresponding established a visa-free regime for Ukrainian with the global trends in Chinese overseas tourists visiting resorts of Hainan province.20 economic activities) is the interest of Chinese companies in infrastructure projects in Ukraine. With respect to infrastructure, cooperation is expected at the level of the President, between Ukravtodor and China Road it is worth taking under «patronage the projects in the and Bridge Corporation, which signed a memorandum on the construction of Odesa– sphere of military and technical Mykolaiv road. State-owned Ukravtodor also cooperation, space industry signed a contract with the Chinese Xinjiang Communications Construction Group Co., The enthusiasm of the Chinese side is – Ternopil – Kropyvnytskyi – Znamyanka perceived in Ukraine with mixed feelings. On roadLtd on and overhaul works of onspecific sections sections of ofKyiv Stryi – the one hand, within the Ukrainian strategy Kharkiv – Dovzhanskyi road. Also, among of building a coalition of allies able to support the successful infrastructure projects, it is worth mentioning the completion of works closer relations with Beijing can be perceived on Pivdennyy port dredging, conducted by asKyiv an in asset. its fight However, with the at theRussian same Federation, time, Kyiv China Harbour Engineering Company, which has to consider that in political terms China also embarked on dredging of Chornomorsk usually prefers neutrality, whereas the port. Arguably, these projects may indicate relations with the EU and the US, who are the interest of the Chinese economic actors the key allies of Ukraine providing economic in bidding for concession of the capacities of and military assistance, remain to be of vital the mentioned ports. importance for the Ukrainian sovereignty. The emerging tensions between the US and Ambitious Plans for the Future the EU on the one hand and China on the other hand put Ukraine into an uncomfortable It is understandable that Ukraine-China position when each step in the direction of relations are far below their potential. closer relations with Beijing can be perceived There are several ambitious plans and with nervousness in Washington, Brussels, project, which are already on the agenda. and Berlin.

19 Ще один ніж у спину: Китай заговорив про безвізовий режим та зону вільної торгівлі з Україною (One More Stab in the Back: China Started Talking about Visa-free Regime and Free Trade Zone with Ukraine), “24 Kanal”, 26 April 2017 [https://24tv.ua/shhe_odin_nizh_u_spinu_kitay_zagovoriv_pro_bezvizoviy_rezhim_ta_zonu_vilnoyi_ torgivli_z_ukrayinoyu_n822281 access: 11 March 2018]. 20 У Китаї відмінили візи для Українців (In China Visas for Ukrainians Abolished), “Ukrmedia”, 19 April 2018 [https://ukr.media/world/354707/ access: 12 February 2019].

UA: Ukraine Analytica · 1 (15), 2019 13 Under such circumstances, in political Euro-Asian Connectivity. Such a step would sphere, Ukraine should take active steps prove to both the Chinese and the European to intensify bilateral political dialogue, no matter who is going to become the new cooperation and to avoid any steps that President of Ukraine. A meeting between maypartners hurt Ukraine’sthe interests desire of the to benefitpolitical fromand the leaders of Ukraine and China as soon economic partners. as in 2019 could become a trigger for the Finally, the government should be interested attention should be paid by the Ukrainian in enhancing dialogue between business authoritiesintensification to ofthe the Ukraine-China relations. Besides, projects more elites, analytical centres, and experts’ that are currently underway. For instance, at communities of Ukraine, the EU, and China the level of the President, it is worth taking in order to elaborate commitment-oriented under patronage the projects in the sphere recommendations on the improvement of of military and technical cooperation, space industry; and at the level of the Cabinet of compromises regarding sensitive political Ministers, patronage should be provided to issues,economic and cooperation, elaborating findingwin-win reasonable strategies projects in the sphere of infrastructure and of implementing global and regional agricultural complex. cooperation initiatives.

Within the “16+1” format, Ukraine should launch consultations regarding Sergiy Gerasymchuk is a Deputy Head of the its participation in this format at least at Board at Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian the level of an observer and to conduct Prism”. He is a graduate of the National University respective consultations with Belarus to “Kyiv-Mohyla Academy” and the Estonian School learn from their experience of gaining such of Diplomacy. In 2008, Sergiy was a research a status. fellow at Uppsala University (Uppsala, Sweden); in 2011-2012 – Lane Kirkland Fellow at Maria In addition, there is a need to have Sklodowska-Curie University (Lublin, Poland); consultations with the EU regarding the in 2017 – Think Visegrad Fellow at the Research potential role and place of Ukraine within Centre of Slovak Foreign Policy Association. the framework of the European strategy on

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