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Ladoga and Onego - Great European Lakes Observations and Modelling Leonid Rukhovets and Nikolai Filatov (Editors)

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Ladoga and Onego - Great European Lakes Observations and Modelling Leonid Rukhovets and Nikolai Filatov (Editors) Ladoga and Onego - Great European Lakes Observations and Modelling Published in association with ~ Praxis Publishing Springer Chichester, UK Editors Professor Leonid Rukhovets Professor Nikolai Filatov Institute for Economics and Mathematics Institute of Northern Water Problems at St. Petersburg Karelian Research Centre Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Academy of Sciences St Petersburg Petrozavodsk Russia Russia SPRINGER-PRAXIS BOOKS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES SUBJECT ADVISORY EDITOR: John Mason, M.B.E., B.Sc., M.Sc., Ph.D. ISBN 978-3-540-68144-1 Springer is part of Springer-Science +Business Media (springer.com) Library of Congress Control Number: 2009924722 Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms should be sent to the publishers. © Copyright, 2010 Praxis Publishing Ltd. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover design: Jim Wilkie Project copy editor: Mike Shardlow Typesetting: Aarontype Limited Printed in Germany on acid-free paper Contents List of contributors. ......................................... .. IX Preface Xl Acknowledgements . xv 1 The Great European lakes: state of the art. ...................... .. 1 1.1 Physiographic features and history of the formation of the lakes and their catchments. .. 1 1.2 History of research of the lakes. .......................... .. 9 1.3 Characteristics of temperature and currents 14 1.3.1 The thermal regime and limnic zones 14 1.3.2 Currents and circulations 23 1.4 The cycle of substances in Lake Ladoga and the dynamics of its warer~osy~em 31 1.4.1 Lake ecosystem phosphorus supply. 31 1.4.2 Phytoplankton in the Lake Ladoga ecosystem 33 1.4.3 Bacterioplankton, water fungi and destruction processes 39 1.4.4 Zooplankton..................................... 41 1.4.5 The role of the zoobenthos in the ecosystem 42 1.4.6 Dissolved organic matter 44 1.4.7 The role of seston and bottom sediments in the lake phosphorus cycle. 46 1.5 The cycle of substances in Lake Onego and its water ecosystem 47 1.5.1 Phosphorus supply to the Lake Onego ecosystem 48 1.5.2 Biological communities in the Lake Onego eutrophication state 51 vi Contents 1.5.3 Relation between the primary production and the destruction of organic matter. .............................. .. 59 1.5.4 Peculiarities of Lake Onego eutrophication ............ .. 60 1.6 The main tendencies in the evolution of large, deep, stratified lakes. .. 61 2 Hydrothermodynamics of large stratified lakes 67 2.1 Ensemble of thermo- and hydrodynamical processes and phenomena in lakes 67 2.2 Lake models: state of the art. Problem formulation for the simulation of lake hydrothermodynamics . .. 69 2.2.1 Introduction.................................... 69 2.2.2 Equations of geophysical hydrodynamics. ............. .. 70 2.3 A climatic circulation model for large stratified lakes . .. 73 2.3.1 General comments 73 2.3.2 Mathematical formulation. ........................ .. 76 2.3.3 Realization of the model. ......................... .. 80 2.3.4 Generalized formulations of the mathematical model ..... .. 80 2.3.5 About the discrete model ......................... .. 83 3 Climatic circulation and the thermal regime of the lakes ............. .. 85 3.1 The climatic circulation in Lakes Ladoga and Onego from observational data and estimates. ......................... .. 85 3.2 On the problem of simulating climatic circulation .............. .. 87 3.3 Setting of external forcing . .. 91 3.4 Simulation of the Lake Ladoga climatic circulation. ............ .. 97 3.4.1 Computational procedure. ........................ .. 97 3.4.2 Description and analysis of thermal regime calculation results.. 99 3.4.3 Description and analysis of current calculation results. .. 112 3.5 Simulation of the Lake Onego climatic circulation . .. 122 3.5.1 Computational procedure. ....................... .. 122 3.5.2 The results of thermal regime modelling. ............. .. 122 3.5.3 The results of currents simulations. ................. .. 129 4 Estimation of the lakes' thermohydrodynamic changes under the impact of regional climate . .. 134 4.1 Climate change over the lakes' catchments. ................. .. 134 4.1.1 Climatic features and their variability ............... .. 134 4.1.2 Probable climate changes over the lakes' catchments. .... .. 138 4.1.3 Estimates of potential changes in the thermal regime of the lakes by 2050. .. 143 4.2 Modelling the thermohydrodynamics of the lakes under different climatic conditions. .. 150 4.2.1 Modelling thermohydrodynamics: statement of the problem and numerical experiments. ...................... .. 150 4.2.2 Analysis of the results of simulations. ............... .. 155 Contents vii 5 Three-dimensional ecosystem model of a large stratified lake . 163 5.1 Modelling the functioning of the lake ecosystems: state of the art 163 5.2 Aquatic ecosystem mathematical model 165 5.3 Discrete models . 168 5.3.1 Discretization of the solution domain 169 5.3.2 Reconstruction of transport, turbulent diffusion and the sedimentation of substances in the model . 171 5.3.3 Reconstruction of the transformation of substances. 173 5.3.4 Total variation of the concentration of substances in additional division cells 173 5.3.5 Discrete analogue of the total substances content variation law in lake waters ................................ 173 5.3.6 Changes in the discrete model with coarsening of the domain decomposition. .................................. 175 6 Ecosystem models of Lakes Ladoga and Onego . 179 6.1 The history of the ecosystem modelling of Lakes Ladoga and Onego. 179 6.2 Complex of Lake Ladoga ecosystem models . 182 6.3 Ecosystem model for Lake Onego, based on the turnover of biogens - nitrogen and phosphorus ................................. 186 6.3.1 Ecological formulation of the model 186 6.3.2 Mathematical formulation of the model 188 6.3.3 The discrete model 192 6.3.4 Reproduction of Lake Onego annual ecosystem functioning ..................................... 197 6.4 Lake Ladoga phytoplankton succession ecosystem model . 206 6.4.1 Formulation of the model 208 6.4.2 The discrete model 212 6.4.3 Model verification, computation experiments 217 6.4.4 Reproduction of phytoplankton succession 219 7 Estimating potential changes in Lakes Ladoga and Onego under human and climatic impact ...................................227 7.1 Modelling changes in the Lake Ladoga ecosystem under different scenarios of climate change and anthropogenic loading . 228 7.1.1 Modelling changes in the ecosystem under different scenarios of climate change 228 7.1.2 Modelling changes in the ecosystem under different scenarios of climate change and changes in the level of anthropogenic loading. .......................................232 7.2 Modelling changes in the Lake Onego ecosystem under different scenarios of climate change and anthropogenic loading . 238 viii Contents 8 Lake Ladoga and Lake Onego models of fish communities . .. 247 8.1 Introduction......................................... 247 8.2 Model description . .. 249 8.3 The models study . .. 354 9 Natural resources of Lakes Ladoga and Onego and sustainable development of the region . .. 261 9.1 Water supply and management in the catchments. Legal and regulatory aspects of water use. .. 261 9.2 Assimilation potential of lake ecosystems and sustainable development of the region. .. 268 9.2.1 Introduction................................... 268 9.2.2 Assimilation potential of the natural environment. ...... .. 271 9.2.3 Quantification of the assimilation potential of the ecosystems of Lakes Ladoga and Onego . .. 271 9.2.4 Economic quantification of assimilation potential. ...... .. 273 9.2.5 Mathematical economic model . .. 274 9.2.6 Computational experiments. ...................... .. 276 9.2.7 Conclusions.................................... 280 Afterword. .............................................. .. 281 References . .. 283 Index 299 The colour plate section appears between pages 144 and 145. List of contributors G. P. Astrakhantsev Institute for Economics and Mathematics at S1. Petersburg, Russian Academy of Sciences, S1. Petersburg N. N. Filatov Northern Water Problems Institute, Karelian Research Centre, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petrozavodsk A. V. Litvinenko Northern Water Problems Institute, Karelian Research Centre, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petrozavodsk V. V. Menshutkin Institute for Economics and Mathematics at S1. Petersburg, Russian Academy of Sciences, S1. Petersburg T. R. Minina Institute for Economics and Mathematics at S1. Petersburg, Russian Academy of Sciences, S1. Petersburg L. E. Nazarova Northern Water Problems Institute, Karelian Research Centre, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petrozavodsk N. A. Petrova Institute of Limnology, Russian Academy of Sciences, S1. Petersburg V. N. Poloskov Institute for Economics
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