Renewable Energies Outlook 2017-2031

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Renewable Energies Outlook 2017-2031 Renewable Energies Outlook 2017-2031 Mexico, 2017 1 Secretariat of Energy Pedro Joaquín Coldwell Secretary of Energy Leonardo Beltrán Rodríguez Deputy Secretary of Energy Planning and Transition Fernando Zendejas Reyes Deputy Secretary of Electricity Aldo Flores Quiroga Deputy Secretary of Hydrocarbons Gloria Brasdefer Hernández Senior Officer Rafael Alexandri Rionda Director General of Energy Planning and Information Víctor Manuel Avilés Castro Director General of Social Communication 2 Elaboration and Review: Rafael Alexandri Rionda Director General of Energy Planning and Information ([email protected]) Efraín Villanueva Arcos Director General of Clean Energies ([email protected]) Luis Alfonso Muñozcano Deputy Director General of Renewable Energies ([email protected]) Fabiola Rodríguez Bolaños Director for the Integration of the Sector’s Outlooks ([email protected]) Jessica Susana Rodríguez Aguilar Director of Renewable Energies ([email protected]) Michelle Ramírez Bueno Director of Geothermal Energy ([email protected]) Sergio Gasca Álvarez Director of Biofuels ([email protected]) Alain de los Ángeles Ubaldo Higuera Deputy Director of Energy Consumption ([email protected]) Eder García Jimenez Deputy Director of the Energy Sector Planning ([email protected]) Thalia Ramírez Flores Head of Department of Energy Markets Planning (tramí[email protected]) Fidel Carrasco González External Consultant with the support of the Mexico Climate Initiative, ICM Administrative support: María de la Paz León Femat, Maricela de Guadalupe Novelo Manrique. 2017. Secretariat of Energy 3 Acknowledgments National Energy Control Center Federal Electricity Commission National Commission for the Efficient Use of Energy Energy Regulatory Commission Institute for Electrical Research and Clean Energies National Renewable Energy Laboratory Mexico-Denmark Cooperation Program in Matter of Energy and Climate Change Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit Undersecretariat of Hydrocarbons, SENER Undersecretariat of Electricity, SENER 4 Index Index of Tables ...................................................................................................................................................................8 Index of Charts ...................................................................................................................................................................9 Index of Figures ..................................................................................................................................................................9 Presentation ..................................................................................................................................................................... 12 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................................ 14 1. Legal and Regulatory Framework of Renewable Energies ..................................................................... 15 1.1. Strengthening of the Legal and Regulatory Framework .............................................................. 15 1.1.1. Political Constitution of the United Mexican States .......................................................................... 15 1.2. Secondary Legislation ............................................................................................................................. 16 1.2.1. Organic Law of the Federal Public Administration .............................................................................. 16 1.2.2. Planning Law ................................................................................................................................................... 16 1.2.3. Law of the Coordinating Regulatory Organs in Energy Matter ...................................................... 16 1.2.4. General Law on Climate Change............................................................................................................... 17 1.2.5. Law of the Electric Industry ........................................................................................................................ 17 1.2.6. Energy Transition Law.................................................................................................................................. 18 1.2.7. Geothermal-Energy Law .............................................................................................................................. 19 1.2.8. Law of Biofuels Promotion and Development ...................................................................................... 19 1.3. Public Energy Policies in Renewable Energies .................................................................................. 19 1.3.1. National Strategy on Climate Change .................................................................................................... 19 1.3.2. Transition Strategy to Promote the Use of Cleaner Technologies and Fuels ............................ 20 1.3.3. Programs to Foster Renewable Energies ................................................................................................ 20 1.3.4. Electricity Universal Service Fund ............................................................................................................. 21 1.4. Instruments to Promote Renewable Energies ................................................................................. 22 1.4.1. Electricity Auctions and Issuing of Clean Energy Certificates ......................................................... 22 1.4.2. National Inventory of Clean Energies (INEL) ........................................................................................ 23 1.4.3. National Atlas of High-Potential for Clean Energies (AZEL) ........................................................... 24 5 1.4.4. Online Renewable Energies (ENRELmx) ................................................................................................. 25 1.4.5. Interconnection Manual for Generating Stations with a capacity below 0.5 MW .................... 26 1.4.6. Amendment to the NOM 016 ................................................................................................................... 26 2. Historical and Prospective Diagnosis of Renewable Energies .............................................................. 28 2.1. Renewable Energies International Context ...................................................................................... 28 2.2. Diagnosis of the Mexican Economy ................................................................................................... 30 2.3. Potential of Renewable Energies in Mexico ...................................................................................... 32 2.4. Diagnosis of Renewable Energies ........................................................................................................ 35 2.4.1. Hydroelectric Power ..................................................................................................................................... 36 2.4.2. Wind Power ..................................................................................................................................................... 39 2.4.3. Geothermal-Power ........................................................................................................................................ 43 2.4.4. Solar Photovoltaic Power ............................................................................................................................ 46 2.4.5. Bioenergy ......................................................................................................................................................... 49 2.5. Clean-Energies Transmission Infrastructure ................................................................................... 53 2.5.1. Project Transmission Grid to Interconnect the Northeast, North, and Western of the Country 53 2.5.2. Project Transmission Grid to Interconnect the Northwest and Center of the Country ......... 53 3. Renewable Energies Studies and Trends ..................................................................................................... 54 3.1. Hydroelectric Power Atlas ..................................................................................................................... 54 3.2. Study on the Integration of Renewable Energies in Baja California Sur .................................. 58 3.2.1. Background ...................................................................................................................................................... 58 3.2.2. Objective and Methodology of the Study ............................................................................................. 58 3.2.3. Scenarios Description ................................................................................................................................... 60 3.2.4. Summary of Results and Conclusions of the Study ............................................................................ 62 3.2.5. Additional Considerations..........................................................................................................................
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