ACAPS Briefing Note: Displacement in

Briefing Note – 01 June 2016 Key findings SYRIA Displacement at Turkey–Syria border Anticipated Over 165,000 displaced have gathered in the area between the Bab Al Salam border crossing and town since February. Over 45,000 scope and people have been displaced in the past week. The border crossing will scale most likely remain closed. Needs are critical and expected to rise Need for international Not required Low Moderate Significant Major exponentially, should IS sustain its offensive. The number of new assistance X arrivals is expected to grow, but slowly, because of severely constrained Very low Low Moderate Significant Major access across the district. Expected impact X Priorities for  Protection as civilians are trapped near the frontline. Crisis overview humanitarian  Shelter: IDP camps are overcrowded and have no capacity to absorb Over 45,000 people have been displaced since 27 May in the opposition-controlled area between intervention new arrivals. The vast majority of new IDPs are staying outside the Bab Al Salam crossing on the Turkey–Syria border and the town of Azaz in formal settlements. governorate, due to an ongoing IS offensive. Another 8,000 IDPs, fleeing an offensive on Ar  Health: At least two hospitals in the area have been evacuated and Raqqa in the past week, have also arrived in the area. remain open only for emergencies. Health needs were already high Over 100,000 displaced had already fled to this zone since February, and the humanitarian prior to the offensive. situation is now critical: over 165,000 people trapped in the border strip face difficulties accessing medical care, food, water, and safety. Humanitarian  Humanitarian response has been limited due to security concerns. constraints Almost all humanitarian agencies have evacuated its staff, suspending assistance in IDP camps and Azaz town.

 An estimated 7,000 people are under siege in Marea and Sheikh Issa towns.  Access to the road between Azaz town and Bab Al Salam crossing is restricted as multiple parties to the conflict have established checkpoints in the past days.

Limitations

No detailed information are available on the needs of the displaced. Several figures have been reported by activists and cannot be independently verified by ACAPS. The situation is changing rapidly as the offensive is ongoing and availability of documentation is limited.

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ACAPS Briefing Note: Displacement in Syria

Crisis impact Food: IDPs face food shortages (MSF 22/04/2016; OCHA 27/05/2016). Food prices are expected to increase and food supply decrease, should the fighting continue (WFP 31/04/2016). If Marea remains The humanitarian situation of more than 165,000 people trapped between the closed Bab Al besieged, food security will become a major concern (WFP 29/02/2016). Salam border crossing and Azaz town in is critical: they face difficulties WASH: WASH needs will increase due to high temperatures up to 37°C, especially for safe accessing medical care, food, water, and safety (AFP 29/05/2016; WSJ 27/05/2016; OCHA 27/05/2016). drinking water (Turkish State Meteorological Service 31/05/2016). Hygiene items are lacking (OCHA Over 45,000 people have been displaced since the past week into the area, due to an ongoing IS 08/02/2016). In early March, over 1,600 latrines, including over 400 in construction, were reported offensive, which began on 27 May (HRW 27/05/2016; OCHA 27/05/2016). At the same time, some in the area between Azaz town and the Turkish border. At least 860 more were needed in order 8,000 IDPs fleeing an offensive carried out by the Syrian Democratic Forces in Ar Raqqa have to meet emergency standard of 50 people per latrine (UNHCR 2016; OCHA 05/03/2016). Drinking reached Azaz district in the past week (UNHCR 29/05/2016). The Sharia court banned them from water has been reportedly contaminated since March, leading to increased diarrhoea cases (OCHA entering Azaz town, citing the large number of IDPs in the town and surrounding camps as well 05/03/2016). The displaced use water from rural boreholes and community water networks (OCHA as concerns over possible infiltration by IS fighters (OCHA 30/05/2016). Over 100,000 people have 05/03/2016). arrived in the area since February, with the last big wave of 30,000 displaced arriving in April (HRW 27/05/2016). Vulnerable groups affected An estimated 7,000 people are under siege in Marea and Sheikh Issa towns as IS has encircled the area from the east, north, and south, and Kurdish authorities closed the road between Afrin According to unverified activists’ reports, most of the 7,000 people under siege in Marea are and Marea on 29 May (OCHA 30/05/2016; SNHR 31/05/2016; OCHA 30/05/2016). Prior to the closure, over women and children (SNHR 31/05/2016). 2,000 people fled from Marea to (OCHA 30/05/2016). Many IDPs have been displaced multiple times, which puts them at particular risk (OHCHR 30,000 displaced who arrived in Azaz area in April said their biggest needs were food, water, 27/02/2013). and sanitation (MSF 22/04/2016). Needs are expected to rise exponentially, should IS sustain the offensive (OCHA 27/05/2016). Humanitarian constraints

Protection: Civilian casualties are expected to rise significantly and human rights violations are  The humanitarian response has been limited by security concerns (OCHA 30/05/2016). likely to be widespread if IS continues to advance (The Guardian 27/05/2016; The Telegraph 29/05/2016). Frontlines and safe areas are constantly shifting (OCHA 30/05/2016). Access to the road At least 29 civilians were killed over 27–29 May (AFP 29/05/2016). Executions and arrests carried between Azaz town and Bab Al Salam crossing is restricted as multiple parties to the conflict out by IS have been reported in the villages it has seized (OCHA 27/05/2016). Turkish guards have have set up a high number of checkpoints (OCHA 27/05/2016). reportedly shot at refugees trying to cross the border (The Telegraph 29/05/2016; HRW 27/05/2016).  Almost all humanitarian agencies have evacuated their staff, which has led to the suspension Shelter and NFIs: Thousands of displaced are staying in fields and at least 50 informal of assistance in IDP camps and Azaz town (OCHA 27/05/2016; Reuters 31/05/2016). settlements along the border, and in Azaz town (The Telegraph 29/05/2016; HRW 27/05/2016; OCHA  An estimated 7,000 people are under siege in Marea and Sheikh Issa towns and cannot be 05/03/2016). Thousands more are in schools, collective centres and squares (MSF 22/04/2016). People reached (OCHA 30/05/2016; SNHR 31/05/2016). outside camps receive almost no assistance (MSF 10/02/2016; OCHA 27/05/2016; IB Times 02/05/2016). Camps in the border strip, already housing about 70,000 people, have no capacity to take new arrivals. In early March, some camps were already at triple their capacity (OCHA 05/03/2016).

Health: Several hospitals in Azaz district were damaged by airstrikes in February (MSF 10/02/2016). Staff of at least two hospitals were evacuated in late May, and the hospitals remain Aggravating factors open only for emergencies (OCHA 27/05/2016; AFP 29/05/2016). At least three medical staff have been Seasonal information critically wounded in shelling (OCHA 27/05/2016). In Marea, as of 29 May, only four doctors were reported to be at the only hospital (AFP 29/05/2016). Negotiations over access for medical staff and The weather in Azaz area is hot, reaching 37°C during the day, which will increase WASH needs supplies to the town are ongoing (OCHA 30/05/2016). Poor WASH conditions may increase health (Turkish State Meteorological Service 31/05/2016). needs.

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ACAPS Briefing Note: Displacement in Syria

Peace talks displaced (UNHCR 19/01/2016; OCHA 29/12/2015; AFP 26/05/2016). Humanitarian needs are severe, with an estimated 13.5 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. Protection, WASH, and UN-backed peace talks were halted after non-government opposition forces suspended health are reported as priority needs (OCHA 29/12/2015). participation in early May. The date for the resumption of peace talks has not been set. Islamist groups, most importantly IS and Jabhat al Nusra, are excluded from the talks (The Guardian There are multiple parties to the conflict, but the four major actors are Syrian government forces, 30/05/2016). Islamic State, Jabhat al Nusra (affiliated to Al Qaeda), and Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). In September 2014, a US-led coalition began airstrikes on IS targets, and one year later Contextual information Russia launched its first airstrikes in support of government forces. (See map at end of document for territorial control). IS offensive in Azaz district A cessation of hostilities between government and non-government forces, except JAN and On 27 May, IS launched a three-pronged offensive in Aleppo governorate, its most significant IS, came into effect 27 February but has been constantly violated since early April. Peace talks advance along the Turkish border in the past two years, cutting a critical supply route between halted after non-government opposition forces suspended participation in early May (The Guardian 30/05/2016). Azaz town and Marea, held by other non-government groups (The Telegraph 29/05/2016). Both towns are vital for these non-government forces as they lie on the supply route between Turkey and other non-government areas in Aleppo (AFP 27/05/2016; 28/05/2016; WSJ 27/05/2016). IS quickly Turkey captured several villages, arriving within 2km of Azaz town (OCHA 27/05/2016). The offensive In 2015, one million Syrian refugees arrived in Turkey, bringing the total number of Syrian came as a surprise, because Syrian democratic forces (SDF) had launched an offensive on IS’s refugees in Turkey to more than 2.7 million (UNHCR 28/03/2015). Turkey has been increasingly stronghold of Ar Raqqa governorate on 24 May (The Guardian 27/05/2016). reluctant to accept more Syrian refugees (Washington Post 05/02/2016). IS’s offensive has pushed non-government opposition forces to the east and the Kurds to the west (WSJ 27/05/2016). As of 30 May, a number of counter-offensives are hindering further IS advances on Azaz town (OCHA 30/05/2016). On 31 May, heavy fighting was reported around Key characteristics of Aleppo governorate and Kafr Kalbin towns, where an estimated 6,000 people live (UN News 31/05/2016). See map at the end of the document. Demographic profile: An estimated 2.8 million people are in need, including 1.4 million women, and 609,000 people in Aleppo city.

Food: 2 million people are food insecure. The price of a food basket increased by 14% between Aleppo March and April, which is a 36% increase since November 2015. Aleppo is Syria’s biggest city, and was the economic centre of the country before the onset of Nutrition: Over 600,000 children under five need nutritional assistance. conflict. Control of Aleppo governorate is currently divided between government forces, Kurdish groups, Islamic State (IS), Jabhat al Nusra (JAN), and a range of other opposition groups and Health: 2.2 million people need health. Severe access constraints are reported. The alliances. The city of Aleppo has been divided into government-controlled areas in the west and patient:doctor ratio has worsened from 800 to 7,000 patients per doctor. opposition-controlled areas in the east since 2012. Heavy fighting has been ongoing in the WASH 2.7 million people need WASH. Access to water has been repeatedly used as a weapon governorate for more than three years. of war in Aleppo. In October 2015, government forces, supported by Russian airstrikes, launched a military Shelter and NFIs: 0.5 million people are in need of shelter. Over 360,000 are living in camps. offensive on opposition-held areas in the governorate, which included campaigns in the southern, 1.1 million are in need of NFIs. eastern, and northern countryside of Aleppo city (ISW 11/04/2016). Education 1.1 million people are in need of education. School enrolment has decreased by 74% compared to 2011 (OCHA 29/12/2015; WFP 30/04/2016; Safeguarding health in conflict 24/05/2016). Syria

Since the onset of conflict in 2011, more than 280,000 people have been killed, more than 4.6 million Syrians have fled the country, and an estimated 6.6 million people are internally

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ACAPS Briefing Note: Displacement in Syria

Response capacity Lessons learned

Humanitarian actors are on standby, rather than fully operational, due to the unpredictable  Negotiating humanitarian access is extremely challenging in Syria, and blocking of security situation (OCHA 30/05/2016). Most staff have been evacuated and operations suspended humanitarian aid has been used as a tactic of war by various parties to the conflict. (OCHA 27/05/2016; Reuters 31/05/2016). If IDPs are allowed to enter Afrin district, the humanitarian International organisations have frequently operated through Syrian Arab Red Crescent actors who are present will respond accordingly (OCHA 30/05/2016). (SARC) as a result of the access constraints faced by international organisations (OCHA 29/12/2015).  Areas remain besieged for a long time and international organisations are allowed none or Information gaps and needs very irregular access. Besieged populations usually face severe shortages of food, safe drinking water, and medicines (HRW 08/02/2016; UN News 27/01/2016).  No detailed information is available on the needs of the displaced.  People living in informal settlements in Azaz have previously been affected by outbreaks of  Several figures reported by activists and cannot be independently verified. skin and respiratory diseases (REACH 06/2014; MSF 10/02/2016).  The situation is changing rapidly as the offensive is ongoing, and therefore some information may already be slightly outdated by the time of the publication.

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ACAPS Briefing Note: Displacement in Syria

OCHA 30/05/2016

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ACAPS Briefing Note: Displacement in Syria

ISW 13/05/2016 6