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AlphaValue 34 rue Médéric - 75017 Paris Tel : + 33 1 70 61 10 50 – [email protected] SA au capital de 303 663.50 Euros - Siret : 500 324 439 00024 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 1
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The Economist, 11/10/2008
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The Economist, 18/10/2008
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The Economist, 18/10/2008
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The Economist, 18/10/2008
11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 5
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The Economist, 11/10/2008
11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 6
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The Economist, 25/10/2008
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The Economist, 01/11/2008
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The Economist, 01/11/2008
11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 9
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GDP GDP Bank GDP Bank funding GDP Total Bank GDP COUNTRY €bn year capital €bn % guaranties €bn % rescue plan €bn Total %
1 Germany 2 307 2006 80 3% 400 17% 480 21% 2 United Kingdom 2 025 2007 50 2% 313 15% 363 18% 3 France 1 780 2006 40 2% 320 18% 360 20% 4 Spain 972 2006 30 3% 100 10% 130 13% 5 Netherlands 529 2006 20 4% 200 38% 220 42% 6 Austria 258 2006 15 6% 85 33% 100 39% 7 Portugal 155 2006 4 3% 20 13% 24 16% Sub-total 8 026 239 3% 1 438 18% 1 677 21% 8 Italy 1 543 2007 30 2% unknown 30 2% 9 Belgium 332 2007 10 Poland 306 2007 11 Sweden 302 2006 unknown unknown 156 52% 12 Denmark 215 2006 13 Greece 195 2006 14 Ireland 178 2006 400 225% 400 225% 15 Finland 168 2006 16 Czech Republic 114 2006 17 Romania 98 2006 18 Hungary 94 2006 19 Slovakia 38 2006 20 Luxembourg 33 2007 21 Slovenia 31 2006 22 Lithuania 24 2006 23 Bulgaria 21 2006 24 Latvia 16 2006 25 Cyprus 15 2006 26 Estonia 13 2006 27 Malta 4 2005 Sub-total 3 740 30 0% 400 11% 586 16% Total Europe 27 countries 11 766 269 2% 1 838 16% 2107 18% Norway 275 2007 41 15% - 0% 41 15% Sources : Bank rescue plans (La Tribune, 13/10/2008) ; National GDP (Minéfi, French Ministry of Finance)
11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 10
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Bank credit to Bank credit to Cagr Loan/deposit Non Performing Risk weighted Foreign ownership private sector private sector 02-07 2007-2008 loans capital (% assets) 2002 (%GDP) 2007 (%GDP) 2007-2008 2007-2008 2007-2008 COUNTRY
Europe 27 1 Austria 105% 114% 2% 121% 2% 13% 3% 2 Belgium 74% 92% 4% 88% 1% 12% 25% 3 Bulgaria 20% 67% 28% 105% 2% 14% 82% 4 Cyprus 165% 206% 5% 169% 12% 13% 13% 5 Czech Republic 31% 48% 9% 75% 4% 12% 97% 6 Denmark 146% 202% 7% 367% 1% 14% na 7 Estonia 64% 94% 8% 205% 1% 15% 97% 8 Finland 58% 82% 7% 152% 0% 15% 57% 9 France 86% 105% 4% 143% 3% 10% 10% 10 Germany 117% 105% -2% 96% 3% 13% 4% 11 Greece 60% 92% 9% 100% 5% 10% 41% 12 Hungary 35% 62% 12% 133% 2% 11% 82% 13 Ireland 109% 198% 13% 199% 1% 11% 32% 14 Italy 80% 102% 5% 146% 5% 10% na 15 Latvia 37% 102% 22% 233% 0% 13% 67% 16 Lithuania 16% 61% 30% 162% 3% 11% 66% 17 Luxembourg 104% 192% 13% 44% 0% 14% 95% 18 Malta 91% 119% 5% 75% 2% 23% 75% 19 Netherlands 141% 193% 6% 151% 1% 13% 8% 20 Poland 27% 40% 8% 97% 5% 12% 71% 21 Portugal 141% 169% 4% 163% 1% 10% 21% 22 Romania 10% 35% 29% 115% 4% 13% 88% 23 Slovakia 39% 42% 2% 84% 4% 22% 92% 24 Slovenia 40% 81% 15% 146% 3% 11% 38% 25 Spain 106% 183% 12% 134% 1% 11% 12% 26 Sweden 100% 124% 4% 234% 1% 10% na 27 United Kingdom 141% 191% 6% 125% 1% 13% 55% Average E27(unweighted) 79% 115% 8% 143% 3% 13% 51% Source : AlphaValue Data
11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 11
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Non Risk Foreign Bank credit to Bank credit to Cagr Loan/deposit Performing weighted ownership private sector private sector 02-07 2007-2008 Loans Capital (% assets) 2002 (%GDP) 2007 (%GDP) 2007-2008 2007-2008 2007-2008 COUNTRY
"Fat 3" 28 USA 169% 209% 4% 269% 1% 13% na 29 Japan 180% 150% -4% 80% 2% 12% na 30 Switzerland 153% 178% 3% 128% 0% 13% na
B.R.I.C.S. 31 Brazil 32% 52% 10% 84% 5% 18% 23% 32 Russia 18% 38% 17% 120% 2% 15% 18% 33 India 33% 47% 8% 82% 5% 13% 7% 34 China 132% 119% -2% 83% 7% 11% 8%
Excess "proxies" 35 Iceland 106% 372% 29% 392% 1% 12% 0% 36 Ukraine 18% 59% 27% 151% 2% 14% 35%
At Europe's border 37 Norway 75% 99% 6% 182% 1% 12% na 38 Turkey 16% 30% 13% 74% 4% 21% 15% Sources : IMF, Fitch estimates October 21, 2008
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The Economist, 25/10/2008
11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 13
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The Economist, 01/11/2008
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' E !') * FG Tier 1 ratio 2009 vs. 2006 Source : AlphaValue Data >JV VJHV5 .VG:J@1J$ 7 VI`:1CVR GVH:% V Q`1 %JHQJR1 1QJ:C `:1 . 1J 2009 Ubs H I:`@V 11 RQI I:JR`V$%C: Q`7 `: 1Q 8#1Q .1J$ .:R GVVJCV` Q% 1J Royal Bank Of Scotland Group Credit Suisse .V]`QHV 7 Dexia Julius Baer 2006 8 QIV G:J@V` CQ V V .1H :JR$QQR VJ V 1.VJ H `V R V VR I11 . 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D Customer Deposits /Total Assets (2008e) Source : AlphaValue Data Anglo Irish Bank Standard Chartered Plc KBC Groep Deutsche Postbank Julius Baer BBVA >JV`I:J5QJV1Q%CR :7 H L:9V1J I5: : Banco Comercial Portugues Allied Irish Banks HQJ `:H 1QJGV 1VVJ H L: %JR MV1J I Bank Of Ireland Hsbc Holdings .1CV JQ .:01J$ :HHV Q`V :1C RV]Q 1 Banco De Sabadell Lloyds Tsb Group Plc 1 :RV`1J1 V `%JR1J$ `1 @ ^97]QB;5M: 161 5 Banco Popular Espanol Unicredit V61:5888_5:.1$. `V :1C RV]Q 1 G: V1 M<# Santander :G%CCV R]`QQ`0V :$:1J :C1_%1R1 7 Nordea Bank DnB Nor _%VV 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 19 AlphaValue data cannot be reproduced without prior consent 7B(*1 ' &' -!0 )'$ ="'*- !'* $ $ * &. % 4 %) & &' -$'1 '% &'! GrossDebt/Equity (gp share) 2008 Bank Of Ireland Lloyds Tsb Group Plc Commerzbank Hypo Real Estate Anglo Irish Bank Deutsche Postbank 91$.CV0VCQ`$`Q RVG 0V` % V_%1 71 :`VC: 10VC7GV V` Barclays R1 H`1I1J:J 1J .VH%``VJ C1_%1R1 7 H:`V^>`1 .G:J@ 5 Banco Comercial Portugues Standard Chartered Plc OCQ7R 5-QIIV` 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 20 AlphaValue data cannot be reproduced without prior consent 7B(*1 ' &' -!0% 4 *' '!'& *1*5.)*E % 4 *' *!- F ' *C Equity /total Assets (2008) Source : AlphaValue Data Julius Baer Intesa Sanpaolo Banco Popular Espanol Banco De Sabadell Santander #.V.1$.V` .V:G QC% VCV0V`:$V^YCQ1V`V_%1 7L Q :C Allied Irish Banks BBVA : V `: 1Q_5 .V$`V: V``1 @:G:J@HQ%CRVJHQ%J V`1J: Unicredit Standard Chartered Plc JVHV :`7RVCV0V`:$1J$71CC1_%1R VH%`1 1V I:`@V 5H: .R Hsbc Holdings `:]]VRGQ``Q1V` 5Q0V`R1JRVG VRHQJ %IV` 59 KBC Groep Banco Comercial Portugues Anglo Irish Bank Nordea Bank DnB Nor Svenska Handelsbanken Fortis Royal Bank Of Scotland Group Equity /total assets SNS Reaal Dexia Natixis 4.6% 4.8% Skandinaviska Enskilda Bank 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 3.9% 4.1% Société Générale 3.5% 3.7% Bank Of Ireland 3.5% Credit Suisse Lloyds Tsb Group Plc Danske Bank Commerzbank BNP Paribas Crédit Agricole Barclays Deutsche Postbank 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Ubs Deutsche Bank Hypo Real Estate Avg Weighted avg Source : AlphaValue Data 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0% 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 21 AlphaValue data cannot be reproduced without prior consent 7B(*1 ' &' -!0* '%&' - '!'&()) * )* $" $ "$!% Breakdown of Banking Revenues (€M) Retail Bkg Investment Bkg Wealth Mgt 54 698 59 682 52 719 50 937 53 704 98 816 107 397 106 132 58 765 110 930 185 414 196 524 202 965 207 014 146 791 Disconnect between Loan Loss Prov & 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Fresh Equity Source : AlphaValue Data Worse to come? 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 Loan Loss Prov 40 000 Fresh Equity 20 000 - 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source : AlphaValue Data 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 22 AlphaValue data cannot be reproduced without prior consent 7B(*1 ' ' -!0* 4'%(' * ! *4 ! * * 4 *! ! ) =1%(!4 $( !)* 899E;89C9 Additions to Equity (€m) 200 000 150 000 100 000 Capital increases Dividends 50 000 Revaluation reserves Earnings - 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -50 000 Excl Intesa paper capital increase 2007 -100 000 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 23 AlphaValue data cannot be reproduced without prior consent 7B(*1 ' &' -!0 *' '%%' %!! ! )%% 899F 899E"'*-; ;"'*- %!! ! Loan Loss 2009 (bp) BBVA Banco Popular Espanol 1 .VH V:`Q``1J:JH1:C1JJQ0: 1QJI:`@R QRI:`@V Anglo Irish Bank Hsbc Holdings CQ V I71 ; .V`1J:JH1:CH`1 1 H `1` `Q%JR I8 Lloyds Tsb Group Plc Santander 11CC]`Q0V QGV .VH V:`Q`QCRR`: .1QJVRG:J@1J$ Allied Irish Banks Banco De Sabadell CQ:JCQ V I71 ; .V`V:CVHQJQI7H`1 1 H VHQJR`Q%JR I8 Banco Comercial Portugues Bank Of Ireland .Q; .VH.1H@VJ51.Q; .VV$$-#1Q .1J$ :`V %`V7 Intesa Sanpaolo Unicredit &QIVGQR7R1R@1CC .VQCRVJV$$RC:71J$$QQ V*6JRJQ15 Barclays Société Générale V0V`7GQR71 ]C:71J$H.1H@VJ9 Natixis Standard Chartered Plc BNP Paribas Royal Bank Of Scotland Group KBC Groep Avg non weighted Loan Loss (bp) Deutsche Postbank Fortis 42.60 SNS Reaal 39.23 Crédit Agricole DnB Nor Dexia 30.34 Commerzbank Nordea Bank Danske Bank 16.69 Skandinaviska Enskilda Bank 14.23 Ubs Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Hypo Real Estate Svenska Handelsbanken Julius Baer 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 Source : AlphaValue Data Source : AlphaValue Data 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 24 AlphaValue data cannot be reproduced without prior consent 7B(*1 ' &' -!0 * *C )'$ *' %!! ! ' %%1 '- 899F Tier 1 capital (€m) & Ratio 903 511 839 688 794 956 653 236 572 621 10.4% Loan Loss Provisions (€m) 9.7% 71 683 66 112 8.9% 58 166 8.2% 7.8% 38 199 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source : AlphaValue Data 24 610 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source : AlphaValue Data 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 25 AlphaValue data cannot be reproduced without prior consent 7B(*1 ' &' -!01'* '%* &( !)1 *' "'* ! * !% =1'*'%% % $% 9 000 000 2.5% 8 500 000 8 000 000 2.0% 7 500 000 7 000 000 1.5% 6 500 000 RWA ( €m) Margin 6 000 000 1.0% 5 500 000 5 000 000 0.5% 4 500 000 4 000 000 0.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source : AlphaValue Data 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 26 AlphaValue data cannot be reproduced without prior consent 7B(*1 ' &' -!0') * E ! )(% - F= &'$-; ; '* E ''$ F European Banks Earnings 200 000 150 000 #.VHQJ VJ % `Q`G:J@ `VI:1J 100 000 Roe QQ.1$.`Q` 50 000 18.00% ;6]VH VRR`Q]1JB<;5I:1JC7 16.00% 14.00% R%V QI: 10VR1C% 1QJQ` €m 0 12.00% V61 1J$ .:`V.QCRV` 10.00% 8.00% Earnings Dreamed With crisis 6.00% Source : AlphaValue Data 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Number of shares (million) 114 257 115 383 Roe dreamed Roe crisis 93 674 Source : AlphaValue Data 63 658 68 677 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source : AlphaValue Data 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 27 AlphaValue data cannot be reproduced without prior consent 7B(*1 ' &' -!0 )*"'* $*CEG 899H 6G 899E=* )% $ ' & ' )*"C=E5 899H 9=E5 899E Total Equity (€m) 1 008 848 908 526 954 461 811 156 683 167 Total Market Cap (€m) 1 284 259 1 178 481 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source : AlphaValue Data 691 039 693 179 699 426 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Price /Book (avg, not Source : AlphaValue Data weighted) 1.84 1.81 0.79 0.75 0.71 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source : AlphaValue Data 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 28 AlphaValue data cannot be reproduced without prior consent 7B(*1 ' &' -!0 ' ')) * $ '! % . '*"'- !D Market Cap (ranked on 2008) Source : AlphaValue Data Hsbc Holdings 109 945 Santander 54 100 BNP Paribas 52 021 Ubs 42 924 BBVA 37 806 Intesa Sanpaolo 35 468 .VJH .1$.`C71J$ I :@V 1 QCC7 Royal Bank Of Scotland Group 33 399 Credit Suisse 29 464 H Q` :CV5]:`:H.% V8E`:JRJV18 VRQJHV8MV0V`Q]VJVR8 Unicredit 29 456 2007 Standard Chartered Plc 28 181 0 50000 100000 150000 Source : AlphaValue Data 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 29 AlphaValue data cannot be reproduced without prior consent 7B(*1 ' &' -!0 S!!'% " D( * ! *(! &(.G P/Book 2008 Source : AlphaValue Data Julius Baer Standard Chartered Plc Ubs Banco De Sabadell Banco Popular Espanol BBVA Svenska Handelsbanken Credit Suisse Lloyds Tsb Group Plc Earnings (€m) BNP Paribas Hsbc Holdings Nordea Bank 123 072 123 390 Santander Banco Comercial Portugues Société Générale Deutsche Postbank 90 766 Skandinaviska Enskilda Bank 77 561 DnB Nor Barclays 61 695 KBC Groep Crédit Agricole Intesa Sanpaolo Danske Bank Unicredit Deutsche Bank Dexia SNS Reaal Royal Bank Of Scotland Group Commerzbank 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Anglo Irish Bank Source : AlphaValue Data Allied Irish Banks Natixis Bank Of Ireland Hypo Real Estate Fortis 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 30 AlphaValue data cannot be reproduced without prior consent 7B(*1 ' &' -!04 . %%%* 4 * " ' =I I4 !%%& $( &.:9G '4 *' 899FG Source : AlphaValue Data 2009e yield Hypo Real Estate Deutsche Bank Allied Irish Banks Anglo Irish Bank SNS Reaal Barclays DnB Nor KBC Groep Yield Nordea Bank Deutsche Postbank Avg Weighted avg Danske Bank Unicredit Skandinaviska Enskilda Bank 6.7% 6.6% Banco De Sabadell BNP Paribas Santander BBVA 4.4% Crédit Agricole 3.7% 3.9% 3.8% Svenska Handelsbanken 3.3% 3.5% 3.4% Hsbc Holdings 3.1% Intesa Sanpaolo Banco Popular Espanol Dexia Ubs Banco Comercial Portugues Société Générale Standard Chartered Plc Credit Suisse 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Julius Baer Source : AlphaValue Data Royal Bank Of Scotland Group Fortis Lloyds Tsb Group Plc Commerzbank Bank Of Ireland Natixis 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 31 AlphaValue data cannot be reproduced without prior consent 7B(*1 ' &' -!0 & '%4 899E;89C94 *!(! * $*899H;8996 Roe 2009e Source : AlphaValue Data Julius Baer B<;11CC`:CC5`Q` %`V8E% 5CV ; .1J@Q`1 71` .VQ% HQIVQ` Standard Chartered Plc Lloyds Tsb Group Plc .VH`1 1 1 H CV ]VH%C: 10VG:J@ I51 IV:J T .VJT BBVA H CV `1 @7G:J@ I8E:H@ QJQ`I:C7CQ1V``V %`J`Q`CQ1V` Nordea Bank KBC Groep `1 @RQV JQ M;-;&&6B>OIV:JCQ1V`B;6O0:C%V Deutsche Postbank H`V: 1QJ8 11/12/2008 HQJ :H :C].:0:C%V8V% 32 AlphaValue data cannot be reproduced without prior consent