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Pakistan Strategy Document of The World Bank Group FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 84645-PK Public Disclosure Authorized INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION AND Public Disclosure Authorized MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY FOR THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN FOR THE PERIOD FY2015–19 Public Disclosure Authorized April 4, 2014 Pakistan Country Management Unit South Asia Region International Finance Corporation Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency Public Disclosure Authorized This document has restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS: CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective as of April 4, 2014) Currency Unit: Pakistani Rupees US$1.00 = PKR 98.2 GOVERNMENT’S FISCAL YEAR: (July 1–June 30) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AAA Analytical and Advisory Activities IEG Independent evaluation Group ADB Asian Development Bank IFC International Finance Corporation AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome IMF International Monetary Fund AML/CFT Anti-Money Laundering/Combating Financing JICA Japan International Corporation Agency of Terrorism KOEL Karachi Organic Energy Limited BISP Benazir Income Support Program KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa CASA1000 South Asia Central Asia Electricity LNG Liquefied Natural Gas Transmission and Trade Project MDGs Millennium Development Goals CEM Country Economic Memorandum MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency CPS Country Partnership Strategy MSME Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise CPSPR Country Partnership Strategy Progress Report MTDF Medium-Term Development Framework DFID Department for International Development (UK) NEPRA National Electric and Power Regulatory Authority DPC Development Policy Credit NFC National Finance Commission DPL Development Policy Loan NLTA Non-Lending Technical Assistance Disco Distribution Company NWFP North West Frontier Province DLI Disbursement Linked Indicator OSS One-Stop Shop DPs Development Partners PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability DSA Debt Sustainability Analysis PER Public Expenditure Review EAD Economic Affairs Division PHRD Japan Policy and Human Resource Development EFF Extended Fund Facility (of IMF) PIFRA Project to Improve Financial Reporting and FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas Auditing FBR Federal Board of Revenue PPAF Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund FDI Foreign Direct Investment PPF Project Preparation Facility FMIS Financial Management Information System PPP Public–Private Partnership FTA Free Trade Agreement PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper GDP Gross Domestic Product SME Small and Medium Enterprise GEF Global Environment Facility SEZ Special Economic Zone GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction SOE State-Owned Enterprise and Recovery SRO Special Regulatory Orders GPE Global Partnership for Education TA Technical Assistance GST General Sales Tax TARP Tax Administration Reforms Program GTFP Global Trade Finance Program TTF Trade and Transport Facilitation HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus WBG World Bank Group IBRD Int’l Bank for Reconstruction and Development WDR World Development Report ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report WEF The World Economic Forum IDA International Development Association WSP Water and Sanitation Program IDF Institutional Development Fund IBRD and IDA IFC Vice President: Philippe Le Houérou Vice President: Dimitris Tsitsiragos Country Director: Rachid Benmessaoud Regional Director/ Mouayed Makhlouf Country Manager: Nadeem Siddiqui Task Team Leader: Uzma Basim, Jose R. Lopez Calix Task Team Leader: Shabana Khawar The World Bank Group greatly appreciates the close collaboration of Pakistan’s authorities in the preparation of this Country Partnership Strategy and the feedback from stakeholders. The preparation of the document involved extensive discussions with government representatives at federal, province, and regional levels, as well as other stakeholders, for example, the private sector, parliamentarians, the academia, youth groups and civil society. The strategy is a result of a team effort and the document received many useful contributions from the Pakistan Country Team and individuals across the WBG. Although it is impossible to name them all, we gratefully acknowledge and thank them for sharing their guidance, knowledge, and experience. CONTENTS I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................... i II. COUNTRY CONTEXT: DIAGNOSIS AND DEVELOPMENT AGENDA ..................................................... 1 A. Political and Social Context .............................................................................................................. 1 B. Poverty and Shared Prosperity Trends .............................................................................................. 1 C. Recent Economic Developments ...................................................................................................... 2 D. Economic Prospects .......................................................................................................................... 3 E. Development Challenges and Opportunities ..................................................................................... 5 F. Government Priorities and Medium-Term Strategy ....................................................................... 10 III. WORLD BANK GROUP PAKISTAN COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY 2015–19 ......................... 11 A. Lessons Learned from Previous CPS 2010-14 and Stakeholder Feedback .................................... 11 B. Proposed WBG Country Partnership Strategy ................................................................................ 13 C. Implementing the FY15–19 Pakistan Country Partnership Strategy .............................................. 28 IV. MANAGING RISKS .............................................................................................................................. 35 Figures Figure 1: Poverty and Growth ....................................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2: The Electricity Deficit ................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 3: Private Sector Credit and Private Investment (as percent of GDP) ............................................... 7 Figure 4: Agriculture and Water Productivity .............................................................................................. 7 Figure 5: Pakistan on Human Development Index ....................................................................................... 8 Figure 6: Financial Access .......................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 7: Public Expenditures ..................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 8: Pakistan CPS Results Chain: Results Areas and Outcomes ........................................................ 26 Boxes Box 1: The Program with the IMF, 2013/14 – 2017/18 ................................................................................ 4 Tables Table 1: Key Economic Indicators ................................................................................................................ 5 Table 2: FY15-19 CPS Financing Envelope ............................................................................................... 29 Table 3: First Two Years Indicative Lending and Analytical Program ............................................. 31 ANNEXES Annex I(a): Summary Matrix Pakistan CPS Selectivity and Impact on WBG Goals Annex I(b): Pakistan CPS FY2015-19 Results Matrix Annex II: Pakistan CPS FY2010-14 Completion Report Annex III: Pakistan CPS Stakeholder Consultations Annex IV: Poverty and Shared Prosperity in Pakistan Annex V: Status of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Annex VI: Government of Pakistan Vision 2025 (proposed) Annex VII: Filters for Selectivity for the Pakistan CPS (FY15–19) Annex VIII: World Bank Group – Pakistan Energy Initiative Annex IX: Promoting More and Better Jobs for Pakistan Annex X: A New Tax Reform Strategy for Pakistan Annex XI: Strategizing WBG’s Role under Devolved Setup Annex XII: WBG’s Governance Action Plan Annex XIII: Investing in Women in Pakistan Annex XIV: Youth Inclusion in Pakistan Annex XV Restoring Trust between Citizens and Governments in KPK, FATA and Balochistan Annex XVI: Climate Change in Pakistan Annex XVII: Pakistan’s Growth Potential as the Regional Economic Hub Annex XVIII: WBG’s Portfolio Management Annex XIX: Overview of WBG’s Partnerships and Trust Funds Annex XX: Provincial Graphs CPS Standard Annexes from SAP Business Data Warehouse i. Selected Indicators of IBRD/IDA Portfolio Performance and Management ii. IFC Investment Operations Program iii. Operations Portfolio (IBRD/IDA and Grants) iv. Statement of IFC’s Held and Disbursed Portfolio v. MIGA statement I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY "The Government of Pakistan’s Development Agenda is to address the 4Es: Energy, Economy, Extremism and Education” Mohammad Ishaq Dar, Federal Minister for Finance, Pakistan i. Pakistan now has a “window of opportunity”.
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