Evidence from Impeachment of the President
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Social Media and Rigid Beliefs: Evidence from Impeachment of the President Yong Suk Lee August, 2018 Working Paper No. 1021 Social Media and Rigid Beliefs: Evidence from Impeachment of the President Yong Suk Leea1, a Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 Abstract Controversial news with little to no factual support has been proliferating in recent years. Such news has spread widely via social media, where individuals can easily create and distribute news. Using the news and events surrounding the impeachment of the former South Korean president Park Geun-hye, I examine (1) the relationship between social media use and beliefs in controversial news and (2) the relationship between protest participation and rigid beliefs based on social media use. The results indicate that individuals who use social media as their primary source of news are significantly more rigid in their beliefs in controversial news. Further, those who strongly believe in controversial news and are more consistent or extreme in their ideological views are more likely to participate in (more) protests. Moreover, this pattern is significantly stronger for those who primarily get their news from social media. Protests can have real-world impacts on public opinion and the policy-making process. Furthermore, a relatively small number of people can effectively mobilize political protests. Though protest participation is an individual choice, it is influenced by others and initially coordinated by a small number of people. The findings of this paper suggest that social media may allow a small group of people, potentially with more polarized and rigid beliefs, to have a disproportionately large impact on public opinion and policy-making in modern democracies. Keywords: social media, news, rigid beliefs, polarization, protests, impeachment 1 To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: [email protected]. 1 1. Introduction Controversial news with little to no factual support has been proliferating in recent years (Allcot and Gentzkow 2017; Bradshaw and Howard 2017; Lazer et al. 2018). Such news has spread widely via social media, where individuals can easily create and distribute news. Social media enables people to share news with like-minded people, potentially creating an echo-chamber effect (Sunstein 2001; Pew Research Center 2014; Bakshy et al. 2015). Moreover, individuals with extreme political views can use social media to not only consume, but also distribute selective news. The first objective of this paper is to examine whether people who use social media as their primary source of news believe more strongly in controversial news. Studies have found that people who hold strong convictions are less likely to find a middle ground, reconcile on contentious issues, and solve problems creatively (Carnevale and Probst 1998; Mutz 2006; Montpetit 2012). Moreover, studies have found that false information travels faster than truthful information on social media (Vosoughi 2018) and that increased exposure to fake news increases people’s tendency to believe in such news (Pennycook et al. 2018). The second objective of this paper is to examine social media users’ protest participation based on the rigidity or ideological consistency of their beliefs. Studies have found that social media facilitate political protests (Bartels 1993; Shirky 2001; Bond et al. 2012; Tufekci and Wilson 2012; Enikolopov, Petrova, and Macarin 2017) and that protests can shape public opinion and political outcomes (Madestam et al. 2013; Acemoglu et al. 2018). The public and the government have become increasingly concerned about the effects of social media on public opinion and behavior and, ultimately, political outcomes (Pew Research Center 2016, 2018). Since the decision to select one media source over another is an individual choice, understanding the beliefs and protest behaviors of individuals who use social media as their primary source of news could shed light on how the prevalence of social media might shape public opinion and political outcomes in modern democracies. This paper examines these questions using the news and events surrounding the impeachment of Park Geun-hye, South Korea’s previous president. Park was impeached due to influence peddling by her close friend who had no role in the government. News related to the scandal was widely covered in South Korea. However, there were also many controversial news stories related to Park Geun-hye. As these news reports came out, people took to the streets and demanded that Park step down. The opposition party eventually put forward an impeachment 2 proposal, and the Constitutional Court unanimously voted for impeachment. However, the impeachment ruling did little to confirm the factual accuracy surrounding most of the circulating news. Other than confirming one account of abuse of power, the Court explicitly stated that there was insufficient evidence of the accusations brought forward against Park (Lim 2017). Consequently, some of the people who initially believed the controversial news may have become more ambiguous after the impeachment rulings. I conducted an online survey one week before the impeachment ruling and followed up with a post-impeachment survey after one month. To measure the rigidity of people’s beliefs, I collected their pre- and post-impeachment beliefs on four news items related to Park Geun-hye. I focused on news with little factual support and on which people may have adjusted their beliefs following the impeachment ruling. In the pre-impeachment survey, I asked whether the participants believed each news item was “True” or “False.” In the post-impeachment survey, I also allowed respondents to choose “Uncertain.” I find that people who use social media as their primary source of news (hereafter: social media users) are significantly more rigid in their beliefs—that is, they are less likely to change their beliefs concerning the news. Furthermore, social media users are ideologically more polarized—their ideological views are more consistent across issues and they have more extreme views. The relationship between social media and rigid beliefs holds even when controlling for measures of ideological consistency, extreme ideological views, political spectrum, individual characteristics, and personality traits. Focusing on protests as the outcome, social media users are more likely to have participated in (more) candlelight protests. Furthermore, social media users with more rigid beliefs or polarized views are significantly more likely to participate in street protests. 2. The Context 2.1 The news and scandals Park Geun-hye assumed office as South Korea’s first female president in February 2013. One of Park’s appeals was her image as a clean leader. Almost all previous South Korean presidents or their direct family members had been involved in some form of bribery or influence peddling and were jailed. Park was never married; both of her parents were assassinated decades ago; and, other than an estranged brother, she had no close family. Despite being elected the first female president of East Asia, Park experienced a less popular presidency than initially hoped. Her 3 governing style was reclusive, and she tended to hire and consult with only a small number of people (Doucette 2017; Kim, H. 2017). Her presidency experienced a major crisis with the Sewol ferry disaster of April 16, 2014. More than 300 people, most of them young students, died while the nation helplessly watched the ferry sink live on TV. Park made her first appearance after seven hours of the sinking, and people wondered what the president was doing that day and how she could have let such disaster unfold in front of everyone’s eyes (Fermin-Robbins 2018). Her popularity declined substantially. In September 2016, news broke about the influence of Choi Soon-sil, Park’s long-time friend, who had no official governmental position, over Park. Several news media reported that Choi had access to confidential government documents and information. Evidence that Choi edited and provided feedback on presidential addresses emerged. Continued news investigation found that Choi established several foundations through which she yielded political and financial influence. Taking advantage of her close ties with Park, Choi requested donations from major conglomerates to fund foundation activities. Choi's foundations used those funds to buy horses and fund her daughter's equestrian activities. Park was accused of being involved in this process, as she met with many of the conglomerate owners around the same time. Furthermore, it was revealed that Choi used her influence not only to send her daughter to a prestigious women’s university, but also to reprimand a professor who gave her daughter low grades due to poor attendance and performance. Many people were shocked and infuriated that someone with no official government position could hold so much political and financial influence. In late October 2016, Park publicly acknowledged her close ties with Choi, and her approval ratings fell to an all-time low of 5 percent (Harris 2017; Fendos 2017). Various news stories emerged around this time, especially on the internet and social media. For instance, it became known that there was a private meeting between Park Geun-hye and Jay Lee, Samsung’s vice chairman and heir apparent. News concerning the motives of the meeting quickly spread. Some news stories reported that Lee asked Park to help in his succession of Samsung and, in return, offered to donate to one of Choi’s foundations. Other news stories proposed the opposite angle: that Park first asked Lee to support Choi’s foundation and equestrian activities and, in return, offered to push the National Pension Fund to support Lee’s cause at Samsung (Seo 2016; Kim, S. 2017; Fermin-Robbins 2018). Park’s response to the Sewol ferry disaster was also the subject of many news stories. The ferry’s crash and sinking 4 were televised in the morning, but Park did not make her first remark or appearance regarding the disaster until seven hours after the disaster began.