GARY W. DEAN, PE, PP ELIZABETH DOLAN, PE _____________ PRELIMINARY TRAFFIC STUDY 792 CHIMNEY ROCK ROAD MARTINSVILLE, NJ 08836 FOR 732 469 0600 732 469 0663 FACSIMILE Re-Zoning Request for MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT BLOCK 2201, LOTS 1.01, 1.02, 2, 3, 4 & 5 BLOCK 2202, LOT 1 ROUTE 35 & ROUTE 36 BOROUGH OF EATONTOWN MONMOUTH COUNTY, NEW JERSEY APRIL 18, 2016 _________________________________ GARY W. DEAN, P.E., P.P. NJ LICENSE NO. 33722 _________________________________ TRAFFIC ENGINEERING ELIZABETH DOLAN, P.E. PARKING STUDIES NJ LICENSE NO. 37071 HIGHWAY DESIGN DOT ACCESS PERMITS GWD\lrc Monmouth/Eatontown/KushnerMonmouthMall/Documents/2016-04-18 Preliminary Traffic Study.doc MUNICIPAL CONSULTING INTRODUCTION Dolan & Dean Consulting Engineers, LLC (D&D) has prepared this preliminary traffic Impact Study as part of the re-zoning request for the redevelopment at Monmouth Mall. This report summarizes the trip generation associated with the approved and historic activity at the Mall for comparison with the current and the proposed conditions. Because the site has access on two state highways, these findings conclude that the proposed zoning change leading to the redevelopment would qualify for a Major Access Permit Application with Planning Review by NJDOT. Under the provisions of the State Highway Access Code (NJAC 16:47-1.1 et. seq.), specific operating conditions on the state highway must be maintained in order to allow the project to proceed. Based on these initial findings, those standards can be met, thus ensuring that the traffic impacts associated with the redevelopment project will not negatively affect the adjacent roadway system and will be lower than previously occurred at the Mall. The Monmouth Mall property is located along NJ Routes 36 & 35 and Wyckoff Road. Kushner Companies seeks to preserve and reposition the Mall to reflect changing shopping habits and lifestyles through a mixed-use development to be known as Monmouth Town Center. The project is emblematic of similar efforts throughout the United States that seek to reverse the continuing decline of retail mall properties, many of which are becoming obsolete due to a variety of reasons: outdated architecture, absence of vibrant anchor tenants and an ever- changing retail landscape that has been profoundly affected by the emergence of internet shopping. Combined with changed economic conditions, the retail landscape as has existed for the past 40 years has been dramatically affected and warrants change in order to survive. For decades, shopping malls have served as a primary destination for not only retail shopping, but social opportunities in lieu of traditional recreational or other activities. In an effort to reverse this decline at the Monmouth Mall, Kushner Companies has recognized a unique opportunity to restore vitality to the property in a similar manner to other nationally recognized projects, but also similar to the success of another relevant nearby example at Pier Village. MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 1 APRIL 18, 2016 One benefit of a mixed-use, town center is the creation of a “walkable” community that features virtually all of the elements of traditional village or town square. The inclusion of residential components, medical and office uses, recreational, dining and entertainment opportunities along with traditional retail spaces creates a nearly self-contained environment for new residents but also allows for the continuance of destination based commercial development that can remain attractive to local residents, as well as seasonal visitors. From a traffic engineering perspective, one of the most critical components of such developments is a town “core” that allows for multi-purpose, public uses in an outdoor setting, such as performing arts, lounge seating, café, and other outdoor activities such as passive and active recreational components that serve to unify a development around a central plaza. This type of planned development encourages significantly more pedestrian activity within the site, rather than relying on an automobile for principal travel modes as has been the typical suburban planning practice over the past four to five decades. These relatively new types of projects have the potential to reverse the effect of what is commonly known as “suburban sprawl” by creating higher density residential options that retain the same high quality lifestyle elements found in a suburban setting. Yet, unlike disparate suburban developments with no interrelations, mixed-use centers include specific development components that encourage walking and/or bicycle activity with the objective of becoming more pedestrian-oriented rather than “automobile-centric.” Of course, the transition from Monmouth Mall to Monmouth Town Center will still retain the core components of the enclosed retail mall that will continue to attract automobile traffic from Eatontown as well as the surrounding area. From a practical perspective, any expansion or redevelopment of the mall property - including a significant investment to enhance the existing retail components - would be done in an effort to generate increased revenues, which will result in additional traffic activity. But the simple expansion or enhancement of the mall, would only amplify the existing retail traffic conditions that become particularly significant during peak holiday months. MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 2 APRIL 18, 2016 By contrast, the transition to a mixed-use development would dampen any new traffic impacts by encouraging not only “internal traffic” among the various site components, but also would have new traffic activity during off-peak or off-season times that would not otherwise directly conflict with retail site traffic. More importantly, the project must consider the effects of external traffic on the adjoining roadways and intersections to ensure a detrimental impact is not created. The initial issue to be addressed within this traffic summary relates to one primary concern: whether the additional traffic generated by the redevelopment that would be permitted under the zoning amendment is materially different – or even greater – than was expected when the mall was originally approved and developed. Because of the significant shift in retail trends, there is little question that site traffic activity has decreased. It is expected that the additional site components will restore some of that lost traffic, but will still be far below the levels previously associated with Monmouth Mall. Lastly, as part of this analysis, close scrutiny is warranted on the day-to-day traffic associated with proposed residential units to be included within the Monmouth Town Center. Roadway infrastructure is a limited resource in New Jersey. Given the numerous obstacles associated with large-scale roadway widening such as environmental constraints, right-of-way acquisition, construction costs, and the extensive permitting process, there reaches a practical limitation on viable solutions to “build” one’s way out of traffic congestion. Rather, the more efficient and responsible means to manage automobile traffic impacts is to encourage land uses that take better advantage of the available infrastructure and can better align traffic demands with surplus capacity only instead of only focusing on infrastructure solutions to mitigate the presumed increased traffic demands. MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 3 APRIL 18, 2016 EXISTING CONDITIONS The Monmouth Mall site is located with frontage along southbound Route 35, eastbound Route 36, and Wyckoff Road (County Route 547). Thus, all the site access is currently (and would remain) on non-local roads. Each of these roads has been improved to a high design standard and capacity with a minimum four-lane, divided cross section, auxiliary turning lanes and traffic signal control. The subject property is currently developed with a traditional, enclosed retail shopping mall. Along Route 35 there is a right-turn entering and right-turn exiting driveway in the vicinity of Macy’s. Nearer Joe’s Crab Shack (on the eastern end of the property) is secondary access as well as a full-movement access provided via a traffic signal controlled jughandle intersection. Along Route 36 only a right-turn entering and right-turn exiting driveway is provided. The remaining site access is provided to Wyckoff Road at a variety of driveway locations, which are nearly all traffic-signal controlled. Summary of Existing Traffic The existing Monmouth Mall consists of 1,783,542 square feet of “Shopping Center” space as defined by the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE). The current, 9th edition of the ITE Trip Generation Manual was used to calculate the following trip generation estimates, which also serve as the basis for the existing NJDOT highway access permit: TABLE I ORIGINAL TRIP GENERATION 1,783,542 SF SHOPPING CENTER Morning Peak Hour Evening Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour Land Use Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total Shopping Center 560 344 904 2065 2065 4130 2844 2844 5688 As noted from Table I, the original PM peak hour traffic demands of the existing mall are more than four times the AM peak hour traffic and the Saturday peak hour mall traffic is more than six times the AM peak hour traffic. Because the mall access system and external roadway/intersection designs were based on the “worst” case” traffic conditions, the AM peak hour was never considered in prior traffic studies as