GARY W. DEAN, PE, PP ELIZABETH DOLAN, PE ______PRELIMINARY TRAFFIC STUDY

792 CHIMNEY ROCK ROAD MARTINSVILLE, NJ 08836

FOR 732 469 0600 732 469 0663 FACSIMILE

Re-Zoning Request

for

MONMOUTH MALL

REDEVELOPMENT

BLOCK 2201, LOTS 1.01, 1.02, 2, 3, 4 & 5 BLOCK 2202, LOT 1

ROUTE 35 & ROUTE 36 BOROUGH OF EATONTOWN

MONMOUTH COUNTY,

APRIL 18, 2016

______

GARY W. DEAN, P.E., P.P.

NJ LICENSE NO. 33722

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TRAFFIC ENGINEERING ELIZABETH DOLAN, P.E. PARKING STUDIES NJ LICENSE NO. 37071 HIGHWAY DESIGN DOT ACCESS PERMITS GWD\lrc Monmouth/Eatontown/KushnerMonmouthMall/Documents/2016-04-18 Preliminary Traffic Study.doc MUNICIPAL CONSULTING INTRODUCTION

Dolan & Dean Consulting Engineers, LLC (D&D) has prepared this preliminary traffic Impact Study as part of the re-zoning request for the redevelopment at . This report summarizes the trip generation associated with the approved and historic activity at the Mall for comparison with the current and the proposed conditions.

Because the site has access on two state highways, these findings conclude that the proposed zoning change leading to the redevelopment would qualify for a Major Access Permit Application with Planning Review by NJDOT. Under the provisions of the State Highway Access Code (NJAC 16:47-1.1 et. seq.), specific operating conditions on the state highway must be maintained in order to allow the project to proceed. Based on these initial findings, those standards can be met, thus ensuring that the traffic impacts associated with the redevelopment project will not negatively affect the adjacent roadway system and will be lower than previously occurred at the Mall.

The Monmouth Mall property is located along NJ Routes 36 & 35 and Wyckoff Road. seeks to preserve and reposition the Mall to reflect changing shopping habits and lifestyles through a mixed-use development to be known as Monmouth Town Center. The project is emblematic of similar efforts throughout the United States that seek to reverse the continuing decline of retail mall properties, many of which are becoming obsolete due to a variety of reasons: outdated architecture, absence of vibrant anchor tenants and an ever- changing retail landscape that has been profoundly affected by the emergence of internet shopping. Combined with changed economic conditions, the retail landscape as has existed for the past 40 years has been dramatically affected and warrants change in order to survive.

For decades, shopping malls have served as a primary destination for not only retail shopping, but social opportunities in lieu of traditional recreational or other activities. In an effort to reverse this decline at the Monmouth Mall, Kushner Companies has recognized a unique opportunity to restore vitality to the property in a similar manner to other nationally recognized projects, but also similar to the success of another relevant nearby example at .

MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 1 APRIL 18, 2016 One benefit of a mixed-use, town center is the creation of a “walkable” community that features virtually all of the elements of traditional village or town square. The inclusion of residential components, medical and office uses, recreational, dining and entertainment opportunities along with traditional retail spaces creates a nearly self-contained environment for new residents but also allows for the continuance of destination based commercial development that can remain attractive to local residents, as well as seasonal visitors.

From a traffic engineering perspective, one of the most critical components of such developments is a town “core” that allows for multi-purpose, public uses in an outdoor setting, such as performing arts, lounge seating, café, and other outdoor activities such as passive and active recreational components that serve to unify a development around a central plaza. This type of planned development encourages significantly more pedestrian activity within the site, rather than relying on an automobile for principal travel modes as has been the typical suburban planning practice over the past four to five decades.

These relatively new types of projects have the potential to reverse the effect of what is commonly known as “suburban sprawl” by creating higher density residential options that retain the same high quality lifestyle elements found in a suburban setting. Yet, unlike disparate suburban developments with no interrelations, mixed-use centers include specific development components that encourage walking and/or bicycle activity with the objective of becoming more pedestrian-oriented rather than “automobile-centric.”

Of course, the transition from Monmouth Mall to Monmouth Town Center will still retain the core components of the enclosed retail mall that will continue to attract automobile traffic from Eatontown as well as the surrounding area. From a practical perspective, any expansion or redevelopment of the mall property - including a significant investment to enhance the existing retail components - would be done in an effort to generate increased revenues, which will result in additional traffic activity. But the simple expansion or enhancement of the mall, would only amplify the existing retail traffic conditions that become particularly significant during peak holiday months.

MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 2 APRIL 18, 2016 By contrast, the transition to a mixed-use development would dampen any new traffic impacts by encouraging not only “internal traffic” among the various site components, but also would have new traffic activity during off-peak or off-season times that would not otherwise directly conflict with retail site traffic. More importantly, the project must consider the effects of external traffic on the adjoining roadways and intersections to ensure a detrimental impact is not created.

The initial issue to be addressed within this traffic summary relates to one primary concern: whether the additional traffic generated by the redevelopment that would be permitted under the zoning amendment is materially different – or even greater – than was expected when the mall was originally approved and developed. Because of the significant shift in retail trends, there is little question that site traffic activity has decreased. It is expected that the additional site components will restore some of that lost traffic, but will still be far below the levels previously associated with Monmouth Mall. Lastly, as part of this analysis, close scrutiny is warranted on the day-to-day traffic associated with proposed residential units to be included within the Monmouth Town Center.

Roadway infrastructure is a limited resource in New Jersey. Given the numerous obstacles associated with large-scale roadway widening such as environmental constraints, right-of-way acquisition, construction costs, and the extensive permitting process, there reaches a practical limitation on viable solutions to “build” one’s way out of traffic congestion. Rather, the more efficient and responsible means to manage automobile traffic impacts is to encourage land uses that take better advantage of the available infrastructure and can better align traffic demands with surplus capacity only instead of only focusing on infrastructure solutions to mitigate the presumed increased traffic demands.

MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 3 APRIL 18, 2016 EXISTING CONDITIONS

The Monmouth Mall site is located with frontage along southbound Route 35, eastbound Route 36, and Wyckoff Road (County Route 547). Thus, all the site access is currently (and would remain) on non-local roads. Each of these roads has been improved to a high design standard and capacity with a minimum four-lane, divided cross section, auxiliary turning lanes and traffic signal control.

The subject property is currently developed with a traditional, enclosed retail . Along Route 35 there is a right-turn entering and right-turn exiting driveway in the vicinity of Macy’s. Nearer Joe’s Crab Shack (on the eastern end of the property) is secondary access as well as a full-movement access provided via a traffic signal controlled jughandle intersection. Along Route 36 only a right-turn entering and right-turn exiting driveway is provided. The remaining site access is provided to Wyckoff Road at a variety of driveway locations, which are nearly all traffic-signal controlled.

Summary of Existing Traffic

The existing Monmouth Mall consists of 1,783,542 square feet of “Shopping Center” space as defined by the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE). The current, 9th edition of the ITE Trip Generation Manual was used to calculate the following trip generation estimates, which also serve as the basis for the existing NJDOT highway access permit:

TABLE I ORIGINAL TRIP GENERATION 1,783,542 SF SHOPPING CENTER Morning Peak Hour Evening Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour Land Use Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total Shopping Center 560 344 904 2065 2065 4130 2844 2844 5688

As noted from Table I, the original PM peak hour traffic demands of the existing mall are more than four times the AM peak hour traffic and the Saturday peak hour mall traffic is more than six times the AM peak hour traffic. Because the mall access system and external roadway/intersection designs were based on the “worst” case” traffic conditions, the AM peak hour was never considered in prior traffic studies as those conditions have substantially lower traffic demands than during the other peak hours. MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 4 APRIL 18, 2016 Of important consideration is that the mall access and adjacent roadway infrastructure was planned, designed and constructed to accommodate these maximum traffic demands during peak Saturday conditions with more than 5000 trips anticipated. Consequently, with more than 4500 and 1500 fewer vehicles during the morning and evening periods, respectively, site traffic at these times is much lower than during weekends, thus ensuring there is available (or surplus) roadway capacity to accommodate additional site traffic.

The projected volumes noted in Table I are the conditions that were forecast (and presumably materialized) when the mall was first built and operating at its peak capacity. These forecasts would have been used to design the site access and considered in the off-tract planning and design of intersections and roads. As previously noted however, changes in the retail landscape due to increased competition and technology have significantly reduced mall business and thus associated traffic over the past decade. Simply stated, the mall is not nearly as busy as it once was.

To verify that assumption, traffic counts were conducted during weekday PM peak and Saturday at each of the mall driveways as part of this preliminary traffic analysis for the re- zoning request. Because the AM traffic activity is significantly less (by thousands of trips) than either of the other two peak hours, traffic activity during the morning was not monitored. This data was obtained through a detailed traffic count program performed by D&D, which is summarized below.

Wyckoff Road & South Driveway and Wyckoff Road & Center Driveway

 Thursday, July 30, 2015, from 4:00 p.m. to 6:30 p.m.  Saturday, August 1, 2015, from 11:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m.

Wyckoff Road & North Driveway  Thursday, July 22, 2015, from 4:00 p.m. to 6:30 p.m.  Saturday, August 1, 2015, from 11:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m.

Route 36 & Driveway and Route 35 & North Driveway

 Thursday, July 23, 2015, from 4:00 p.m. to 6:30 p.m.  Saturday, August 1, 2015, from 11:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m.

MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 5 APRIL 18, 2016 Route 35 & South Driveway  Thursday, July 28, 2015, from 4:00 p.m. to 6:30 p.m.  Saturday, August 1, 2015, from 11:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m.

The traffic count data is appended as are worksheets that show the mall peak hour traffic volumes as well as the patterns of arrival/departure on the nearby roads. Evening and Saturday peak hour distribution patterns are similar, with 38% alternative access use of Wyckoff Road.

With the existing mall traffic known from the traffic counts, a simple comparison of actual traffic activity verses the volumes that previously existed during more robust times can be made. As an example, in June 2004 traffic count data was collected by VHB as part of a prior mall expansion application. Table II summarizes the difference between the current (2015) and former (2004) traffic at Monmouth Mall:

TABLE II ACTUAL TRIP GENERATION COMPARISON 1,783,542 SF MONMOUTH MALL Morning Peak Hour Evening Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour Condition Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total 2004 (not counted) 1630* 1630* 3260 1585* 1585* 3170 Current (2015) (not counted) 1148 1118 2266 1248 1192 2440 Difference (not counted) -482 -512 -994 -337 -393 -730 *estimated – only the total site trips were available in the VHB report

As noted and validating the assumption of sharply reduced mall traffic, there are nearly 1000 fewer PM and 700 fewer Saturday peak hour trips since 2004. When considering the traffic volumes when the mall was developed and approved, the differences are even greater – almost 2000 fewer and 3000 fewer PM peak and Saturday hours, respectively. It is precisely this significant decrease in site traffic that would be simply restored (but still be less) under the proposed re-zoning. While additional traffic would be added to nearby roads (compared to current conditions), that traffic activity would be far lower than was once expected with the mall at full operations, or even as occurred in more recent years. The new site components to be added as part of the redevelopment plan would be simply using the same intersection and roadway capacity as was originally planned for the mall.

MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 6 APRIL 18, 2016 PROPOSED ZONING

The proposed Ordinance amendment to the B-6 zoning would allow the development of residential, medical office and hotel uses in addition to the currently allowed retail and entertainment/recreational components. Because the mall currently exists, overall traffic patterns would not be significantly affected, assuming a modest traffic growth attributed to retail enhancements and the revitalization of tenants and amenities within the mall itself. Therefore, this analysis has focused on the new elements associated with the Ordinance change – specifically the residential and medical office components.

Unlike nearly all of the existing mall uses, both the residential and office components would generate weekday morning traffic. For the residential uses, such traffic would principally consist of exiting traffic oriented toward the regional highway or transit system. By contrast, office activity would follow the exact reverse pattern with entering traffic during morning hours consisting of employees and patient arrivals. During weekday evening hours, the exact reverse trends would occur with a higher concentration of entering residential traffic with a corresponding exit of medical office traffic. These peak traffic impacts for both uses would be limited to weekdays throughout the year.

A medical office would presumably have limited traffic on weekends, thus would have no significant traffic impact on mall traffic activity or external conditions on the adjacent roadway system. Additionally (and unlike on weekdays), weekend residential traffic does not exhibit traditional “peaking” per se (as occurs during peak commuter hours) and is more evenly distributed throughout the day on weekends. The traffic impacts of future residential traffic would be further diluted by virtue of inclusion in a mixed-use development, as opposed to a “stand-alone” development.

Specifically, given the intended “walkability” of a mixed-use site design and with the activities and services proposed on site, many future residents would remain on premises throughout the majority of the weekend, thus creating limited automobile traffic impacts on the adjacent roadway system. Obviously, future site residents may wish to leave the site for other purposes, i.e., to visit friends/relatives, other shopping destinations, the shore points, etc.. But as future

MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 7 APRIL 18, 2016 Eatontown residents with knowledge of local traffic conditions, such activity can be expected to occur well outside of the traditional late morning/afternoon peaks on the adjacent roadway system associated with the sharp influx of non-residential, visitor traffic to the shore area.

Furthermore, and to be discussed as part of the redevelopment consideration, by including sufficient residential density there are numerous opportunities for para transit or other shuttle activities for not only weekend shore-related traffic (for example, to or from Pier Village) but also during weekdays to or from nearby local NJ Transit rail stations at Elberon or Long Branch or to local bus service locations Given the proposed number of residential units, it is believed that such a “critical” mass would exist to successfully implement shuttle services, thus lessening the potential for additional automobile traffic associated with on-site residential components. No credits for possible shuttle usage have been taken in the study, for a conservative traffic projection.

Proposed Components to be permitted under the B-6 Re-Zoning

The draft ordinance and conceptual plans for Monmouth Town Center would allow for a maximum development yield consisting of the following new uses:

Use Size  Hotel 150 rooms  Medical office 104,000 square feet  Recreational/entertainment 63,600 square feet  Residential 800 mid-rise apartments

To estimate the projected traffic increases of the overall site, it is necessary to first evaluate the individual traffic generation for each site component. This analysis was completed using ITE data that is summarized below for the primary site components. As confirmed through consultation with NJDOT, the above uses have been grouped into Land Use Categories defined in the Trip Generation Manual by the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE). The following has been used for estimating trip generation:

 Shopping Center 111,730 square feet increase  Hotel 150 rooms  Mid-Rise Apartments 800 units

MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 8 APRIL 18, 2016 Based on initial technical discussions with NJDOT, the total future site traffic is calculated based on the net increase in “mall area”, which includes all the entertainment space and medical office use to satisfy Access Management Code standards: Table III summarizes the total unadjusted, individual trip generation estimates with the future site traffic increases calculated as follows:

SHOPPING CENTER (ITE Land Use 820)

Morning Peak Hour lnT=0.61 ln(1895.272)+2.24 T=938 (proposed area) – 903 (existing area) = 35 62% enter=22 38% exit=13

Evening Peak Hour lnT=0.67 ln(1895.272)+3.31 T=4300 (prosed area) – 4129 (existing area) = 172 50% enter=86 50% exit=86

Saturday Peak Hour lnT=0.65 ln(1895.272)+3.78 T=5918(proposed area) – 5688 (existing area) = 230 50% enter=115 50% exit=115 HOTEL (ITE Land Use 310)

Morning Peak Hour T=0.52(150) T=78 58% enter=45 42% exit=33

Evening Peak Hour T=0.61(150) T=92 49% enter=45 51% exit=47

Saturday Peak Hour T=0.72(150) T=108 50% enter=54 50% exit=54

MID-RISE APARTMENTS (ITE Land Use 223)

Morning Peak Hour T=0.46(829)-14.01 T=368 29% enter=108 71% exit=260

MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 9 APRIL 18, 2016 Evening Peak Hour T=0.53(829)-11.27 T=428 61% enter=261 39% exit=167

Saturday Peak Hour T=0.53(829)-11.27 T=428 50% enter=214 50% exit=214

Table III summarizes the total trip generation increase associated the development that would be permitted under the re-zoning.

TABLE III TRIP GENERATION INCREASES PROPOSED MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT Morning Peak Hour Evening Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour Land Use Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total Shopping Center 22 13 35 86 96 172 115 115 230 Hotel 45 33 78 45 47 92 54 54 108 Apartments 108 260 368 261 167 428 214 214 428 Total 175 306 481 392 310 692 383 383 766

The residential traffic projected in Table III may be questioned in light of 800 potential units and number of vehicle parking spaces to be provided. It must be recognized that the projections follow the accepted industry practice and reliance on ITE trip generation data. These projections are based on actual traffic studies of suburban locations of apartment communities with on-site parking provided.

Often, these projections are assumed to be low under a false assumption of two vehicles per household with a further incorrect premise that all residents effectively leave at the same time. For this reason and to best understand the dynamic of traffic flows for planning and design purposes, ITE has compiled traffic studies of actual apartment developments. The data clearly demonstrates that the actual traffic generation – during one peak 60-minute interval – is well below such an assumption. For example, some units will be occupied by only one resident, while others may be occupied by individuals who work at home, or with modified work schedules. Other residents may be retired, on vacation or travel for business. Some residents may share a vehicle with a spouse/partner/ roommate dropping the other at the train station, bus stop or ferry terminal.

MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 10 APRIL 18, 2016 Once that user group is considered, then the remaining typical commuting workforce traffic patterns must be analyzed. Some residents may very leave early due to “shift” type schedules (i.e., nursing or medical staff, police, research/development or retail), or to arrive at work on time with a longer commute in or out of state. Other residents may adhere to a more traditional 9-to-5 work schedule with their commuting trips falling directly within the “peak” weekday hours. After work, residents often do not travel directly home, engaging in shopping, social or recreational fitness activities, thus further delaying their return trip to the site until “post-peak” hours. Consequently, with residential uses there is never a case where literally all residents arrive/depart at the same time.

Because there will be synergy among the various uses on site, an internal trip analysis was then performed to calculate the net increase in “external” trips. A mixed-use “internal capture” analysis was performed following ITE practice. Table III reflects the resultant “external” trips, and the net traffic increases associated with the redevelopment proposal. Internal credits were calculated for the morning and evening peak hour, using the methodology contained in the ITE Trip Generation Handbook. The worksheets are appended.

A 10% internal credit has been applied to the Saturday peak hour as approved by NJDOT. Again, with a proposed residential use on the site, higher internal credits are likely to occur based on the ITE and NCHRP data for mixed-use sites. The following table summarizes the resultant external trips

TABLE IV NET TRIP GENERATION INCREASES PROPOSED MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT Morning Peak Hour Evening Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour Land Use Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total Net New Trips 175 306 481 392 310 692 383 383 766 Internal Trips 10 11 21 212 222 424 323 323 646 Total New Traffic 165 295 460 180 88 268 60 60 120 Existing Mall (not counted) 1148 1118 2266 1248 1192 2440 TOTAL PROJECTED REDEVELOPMENT 1328 1206 2534 1308 1252 2560

MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 11 APRIL 18, 2016 With the total new site traffic determined in total Table IV, it is necessary to then add this volume to current mall traffic to obtain the total overall site traffic. This volume (TOTAL PROJECTED) would then serve as the relevant basis for comparison with the traffic when the mall was first built and even the 2004 actual site traffic.

TABLE V TRIP GENERATION COMPARISON PROPOSED MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT Morning Peak Hour Evening Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour Project Date Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total

Approved 560 344 904 2065 2065 4130 2844 2844 5688

2004 (not counted) 1630* 1630* 3260 1585* 1585* 3170

Redevelopment (TBD) 1328 1206 2534 1308 1252 2560

From this analysis, it is clear that the mall redevelopment will still yield substantially less traffic than was assumed for the original mall approval and opening. In fact, the projected redevelopment traffic will be lower than occurred in 2004 with at least 700 fewer PM peak hour trips and 600 fewer Saturday trips. Assuming the revitalized mall would experience traffic increases over current levels (ignoring the other proposed components), a 25% increase in mall traffic alone, would still maintain the total site traffic at or below 2004 conditions.

While the redevelopment will certainly add new traffic to those volumes currently generated, the overall traffic will be far less than historic conditions. For this reason, the added traffic associated with the apartments will not contribute to detrimental traffic conditions, as there will still be less site traffic than occurred just over 10 years ago.

All of the detailed traffic operational analyses that would be completed at the site access points or any off-tract locations would show better operations with the redevelopment traffic than either the “base” (original) conditions or in 2004.

MONMOUTH MALL REDEVELOPMENT EATONTOWN, MONMOUTH COUNTY PAGE 12 APRIL 18, 2016

TECHNICAL APPENDIX