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D3.5 Analysis of Legal and Illegal Vulnerability Markets and Specification of the Data Acquisition Mechanisms D3.5 Analysis of Legal and Illegal Vulnerability Markets and Specification of the Data Acquisition Mechanisms Work Package 3: Economic Analysis Document Dissemination Level P Public ☒ CΟ Confidential, only for members of the Consortium (including the Commission Services) ☐ Document Due Date: 31/10/2017 Document Submission Date: 06/11/2017 This work is performed within the SAINT Project – Systemic Analyser in Network Threats – with the support of the European Commission and the Horizon 2020 Program, under Grant Agreement No 740829 Copyright SAINT Consortium. All rights reserved. 1 D3.5 Analysis of Legal and Illegal Vulnerability Markets and Specification of the Data Acquisition Mechanisms Document Information Deliverable number: 3.5 Deliverable title: Analysis of Legal and Illegal Vulnerability Markets and Specification of the Data Acquisition Mechanisms Deliverable version: 1.0 Work Package number: 3 Work Package title: Economic Analysis Due Date of delivery: 31/10/2017 Actual date of delivery: 06/11/2017 Dissemination level: PU Editor(s): Yannis Stamatiou (CTI) Contributor(s): John Bothos (NCSRD) Jart Armin (CYBE) Dimitrios Kavallieros (KEMEA) Pantelis Tzamalis (CTI) Vasileios Vlachos (CTI) Yannis Stamatiou (CTI) Reviewer(s): Stelios Thomopoulos (NCSRD) Georgios Germanos (KEMEA) Jart Armin (CYBE) Edgardo Montes (MNTMG) Ethical advisor(s): Christina Chalanouli (KEMEA) Project name: Systemic Analyser in Network Threats Project Acronym SAINT Project starting date: 1/5/2017 Project duration: 24 months Rights: SAINT Consortium Version History Version Date Beneficiary Description 0.1 28/07/2017 CTI Table of Contents 0.2 29/09/2017 CTI First draft version for further processing by the involved partners 0.3 12/10/2017 CTI Updated version ready for proofreading 0.4 16/10/2017 CTI Proofread version ready for technical review 0.5 20/10/2017 Ethical advisor Review by Ethical and legal advisor 0.6 25/10/2017 CTI Final version 0.7 2/11/2017 Security Advisory Review by Security Advisory Board Board members 1.0 6/11/2017 CTI Final version ready for submission Copyright SAINT Consortium. All rights reserved. 2 D3.5 Analysis of Legal and Illegal Vulnerability Markets and Specification of the Data Acquisition Mechanisms Abbreviations and Acronyms ACRONYM EXPLANATION ANZUS The Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty API Application Programming Interface AR Abnormal Returns ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations CAR Cumulative Abnormal Returns CERT Computer Emergency Response Team CVE Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures DDoS Distributed Denial-of-Service (type of attack) DoS Denial-of-Service (type of attack) EU European Union FBI Federal Bureau of Investigations I2P Invisible Internet Project IoT Internet of Things JSON JavaScript Object Notation LPE Local Privilege Escalation (type of vulnerability) NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization (also called the North Atlantic Alliance) NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology NSA National Security Agency NVD National Vulnerability Database OS Operating System RCE Remote Code Execution (type of vulnerability) OVAL Open Vulnerability and Assessment Language RUB Remote Jailbreak with Persistence (type of vulnerability) TCP/IP Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol UK United Kingdom US United States Copyright SAINT Consortium. All rights reserved. 3 D3.5 Analysis of Legal and Illegal Vulnerability Markets and Specification of the Data Acquisition Mechanisms Table of Contents Executive summary ................................................................................................................................ 7 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 8 2. Identification of vulnerability markets ........................................................................................... 10 2.1 Vulnerability related concepts ........................................................................................................ 10 2.2 Vulnerability facts and trends ......................................................................................................... 11 2.3 Vulnerability producers (discoverers) ............................................................................................. 17 2.4 Vulnerability markets ...................................................................................................................... 17 2.4.1 White markets ......................................................................................................................... 17 2.4.1.1 Publicity ............................................................................................................................... 17 2.4.1.2 Captive ................................................................................................................................. 17 2.4.1.3 Reward programs ................................................................................................................ 18 2.4.1.4 Security company ................................................................................................................ 19 2.4.2 Online forums .......................................................................................................................... 20 2.4.3 Grey markets ........................................................................................................................... 21 2.4.4 Black markets........................................................................................................................... 21 2.5 Vulnerability consumers (buyers) .................................................................................................... 22 2.6 Vulnerability resolutions (patches) ................................................................................................. 22 3. 0-Day vulnerabilities and Deep Web markets ................................................................................ 26 3.1 0-day vulnerabilities ........................................................................................................................ 26 3.2 Pricing information on 0-day vulnerabilities and exploits ............................................................... 27 3.3 0-day vulnerability markets ............................................................................................................. 32 3.3.1 White Markets ......................................................................................................................... 32 3.3.2 Grey Markets ........................................................................................................................... 34 3.3.3 Black Markets .......................................................................................................................... 35 3.4 Cryptovirology and the Market for Encryption Back Doors ............................................................ 38 4. The role of the rate of updates and security fixes published by vendors ......................................... 39 5. Financial aspects of cybersecurity breaches and vulnerability information ..................................... 40 5.1 General considerations .................................................................................................................... 40 5.2 The Capacity and Value-Based Pricing Model for vulnerability and exploit trading ....................... 41 5.3 Costs of vulnerability announcements to vendors and costs of proactive defences ...................... 42 5.4 The effect of vulnerability disclosure on the market value of software product vendors .............. 45 5.5 Modelling the decisions of the vulnerability discoverer and defender........................................... 47 6. Specifications for the OSINT Web Crawler and the Social Network Analyser ................................... 49 6.1 Web Crawler .................................................................................................................................... 50 6.2 Social Network Analyzer (SNA) ........................................................................................................ 51 6.3 Terms of use of the tools ................................................................................................................. 60 7. Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 61 Copyright SAINT Consortium. All rights reserved. 4 D3.5 Analysis of Legal and Illegal Vulnerability Markets and Specification of the Data Acquisition Mechanisms References ........................................................................................................................................... 62 Copyright SAINT Consortium. All rights reserved. 5 D3.5 Analysis of Legal and Illegal Vulnerability Markets and Specification of the Data Acquisition Mechanisms Table of Figures Figure 1-1: Types of experienced cyber-attacks (Ponemon, 2015) ................................................................... 8 Figure 1-2: Average annual cyber-crime cost weighted by attack frequency (Ponemon, 2015) ...................... 9 Figure 2-1: Vulnerability life cycle (blue rectangle: pre-disclosure risk, red rectangle: post-disclosure risk) . 11 Figure 2-2: The evolution of vulnerability numbers since 1999 (CVE) ............................................................ 12
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