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Marsabit April 2021.Pdf National Drought Management Authority MARSABIT COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR APRIL 2021 DROUGHT EW PHASE: ALARM Early Warning (EW) Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Phase Trend Agro-pastoral Alert Stable Pastoral All species Alarm Worsening Fisher folk/Casual Alarm Stable labour/Petty Trading County Alarm Stable Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Range/Value Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators Rainfall (% of Normal) 32 80 -120 Rainfall: In the month under review, most parts of the county received VCI-3Month (County) 33.75 >35 below normal rains while other parts remained dry with exception of Forecast (VCI-3Month) >35 Moyale Sub-County, which received near average rains that were poorly and unevenly distributed. Forecast soil moisture 0.2 < 0.2 Vegetation condition: 3-months Vegetation Condition Index for the Production indicators Value Normal month under review was 33.75 across the county thus slightly improved Livestock Body Good- Good when compared to the previous months VCI of 31.72 but remained in the Condition Fair moderate vegetation deficit band. Socio-Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Milk Production 0.75 >1.6Litres Production indicators: Livestock body condition was good-fair in all the Livestock Migration Unusual Normal livelihood zones. Milk production was below the short term average. Pattern Unusual livestock migration was reported across the County. Incidences of Livestock deaths (from No death No death livestock diseases were reported. Area under crop production is below the drought) long-term average due to late onset and below normal rains. Access Indicators Value Normal Access indicators: Household and livestock water distances increased Terms of Trade (ToT) 70 >75 across the County due to partial recharge of 30-40 percent of sub-surface water sources. Breakdown of some strategic boreholes was reported in Milk Consumption 0.75 >1.4 Litres North Horr and Laisamis Sub-counties. Milk consumption was below the Return distance to water 9.5 0.0-4.3Km short-term average and terms of trade were less favourable as prices of Utilization indicators Value Normal goats reduced. Nutrition Status 11.2 0.0-11.0 Utilization indicators. Household food consumption score shifted in the (malnourished) moderate category whereas households adopted crisis consumption based Coping Strategy Index 19.7 <18 coping strategies. High admission trends recorded in the supplementary Food Consumption 34.1 >35 and therapeutic feeding programmes due to food insecurity situation. ▪ Short rains harvests ▪ Planting/Weeding ▪ Long rains harvests ▪ Short rains ▪ Short dry spell ▪ Long rains ▪ A long dry spell ▪ Planting/weeding ▪ Reduced milk yields ▪ High Calving Rate ▪ Land preparation ▪ Increased HH Food Stocks ▪ Milk Yields Increase ▪ Increased HH Food Stocks ▪ Land preparation ▪ Kidding (Sept) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Marsabit County (January-April 2021) RFE (2021) RFE_AVG NDVI (2021) NDVI_AVG 0.30 30.00 0.25 25.00 0.20 20.00 0.15 15.00 0.10 10.00 Rainfall For Estimate (mm) 0.05 5.00 0.00 0.00 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Normalised DifferenceVegetationIndex(NDVI) Month/Dekad Figure 1: Dekadal Rainfall (mm) and NDVI values compared to the Long Term Average Source: WFP-VAM, CHIRPS/MODIS • From the figure 1 shown above, dekadal rainfall for estimate (RFE) amounts for the first and second dekads were significantly below normal when compared to their corresponding long- term dekadal rainfall for estimate (RFE) averages. • Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the first and second dekads were slightly below normal when compared to their respective long term dekadal NDVI values. 1.2 RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND DISTRIBUTION Rainfall (March) Rainfall (April) Max (Temp) Min (Temp) 40.00 75.00 36.00 60.00 32.00 45.00 28.00 30.00 (mm) Rainfall 24.00 15.00 Temperature in Degree Celsius 20.00 0.00 North Horr Dukana El-gade El-hadi Kalacha Malabot Balesa Gas Figure 2: Rainfall Amounts and Temperature at Health Facilities under One Health Project, North Horr Sub-County • Generally, County experienced depressed rains in the month under review, which was considerably below the long term average. The long rains were expected to be at its peak in Drought Bulletin_April_2021_Marsabit County Page 2 the current month, however the amounts received were mostly of low intensity accompanied with reduced differential rainfall intervals. • From figure 2 shown above, rains in North Horr Sub-county considerably subsided when compared to the previous month across the rainfall stations except Dukana that received minimal rainfall totalling 14mm in 3 rainy days. Furthermore, Garwole, Horronderi, Demo and Forolle received fair-poor rains in 1-3 rainy days. • In Moyale Sub-county, most areas received rains in the month under review. Moyale Township recorded 102.5mm of rainfall amounts in 7 rainy days with the highest precipitation received on 20th April of 33.5mm while the remaining days received traced rainfall amounts ranging between 0.1mm and 0.6mm. Equally, some parts of Moyale Sub- county namely; Golbo, Butiye, Heillu Manyatta, Obbu, Sololo and Uran wards received near average rains with exception of Ellebor and Elledimtu that generally remained dry. • Marsabit Mountain received 62.6mm of rainfall in 6-7 days. The highest amount of rainfall was received in two days of 20.8mm and 27.2mm on 17th and 18th of April respectively while scanty rains were received in the remaining days. • Some pockets of Laisamis Sub-County namely Ngurnit, Mbagas, Illaut, Gatab, Kargi, South Horr, Buuro, Elem and Hafare received fair-poor rains in 1-2 rainy days with most parts prevailed in drier conditions in the month under review. • Spatial and temporal distribution of rains in the month under review was poor and uneven respectively across the county. Generally, pastoral livelihood zone (North Horr and Laisamis Sub-counties) received below normal rains while the agro-pastoral areas of Saku and Moyale received below normal and near average rains respectively. 1.3 CUMULATIVE RAINFALL 2019 2020 Long Term Average(2008-2018) 2021 1200 1000 800 600 400 (mm) Rainfall 200 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure 3: Cumulative Rainfall Performance (mm) • From the figure (3) shown above, current seasonal cumulative rains are remarkably below the long-term cumulative rainfall amounts with a paltry 32percent of the normal long rains received. Generally, 2019 long rains failed and was significantly below the long term average while 2020 long rains were exceedingly above the long term average (MAM). With failure of the rains in the month of April coupled by expected cessation of the rains in May, the 2021 MAM rains might follow a similar trend of 2019 (dry year) long rains hence high likelihood failure of two consecutive rainy seasons. Drought Bulletin_April_2021_Marsabit County Page 3 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION 2.1 1 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) • From the figure 4 shown below, current vegetation condition index is 33.75 hence illustrated no notable improvement when likened to the previous month’s vegetation condition index of 31.72 necessitated by failure of the April rains which is usually the peak month of the long rains season. No notable improvement in vegetation cover as the 3-months VCI stagnated in the moderate category as Figure 4: Vegetation Condition Index Matrix across Marsabit County the depressed rains received had a trivial knock on effect on forage regeneration. With the expected cessation of the long rains in the second dekad of May, the 3-months vegetation condition index will reduce but still remain in the moderate vegetation deficit band. • When compared based on the Sub-counties, Saku Sub-county 3- months VCI significantly reduced from 43.32 in March to 36.44 in April. Similarly, Laisamis Sub-county recorded a reduction from 32.36 in March to 31.0 in Figure 5: Vegetation Condition Index Trends April. North Horr Sub-county registered a slight increase from 32.39 in March to 34.15 in April. However, considerable increase in the vegetation condition index in Moyale Sub- county was recorded from 25.38 in March to 37.68 in April attributed to the near average rains received in the month under review. • Figure (5) shown above compares April 2021 vegetation condition index to April 2021 long term average, historical maximum and minimum vegetation condition index values. The current vegetation condition index equals the long term average and it’s expected to decline below the long term average in the month of May due to expected cessation of the long rains. • Sub-counties vegetation condition index forecasts in Figure (7) below indicates Laisamis and North Horr Sub-counties will remain in the moderate vegetation deficit category while Saku Sub-county will shift from the normal vegetation greenness band in April to moderate vegetation deficit category in May. Moyale Sub-county will remain in the normal vegetation greenness band due to the spill over effect of the near average rains received. Drought Bulletin_April_2021_Marsabit County Page 4 Figure 6: Vegetation Condition Index phase by Sub-County Figure 7: Saku Sub-County 3-months VCI • (Figure 8) exhibits forecasted soil moisture that indicates a likelihood deterioration across the county in the MAM season due to high land surface temperature and depressed rains received. Expected cessation of the long rains in the month of May worsen the soil moisture quotient across the County. On average, there is a 0.2 probability that soil moisture will be in the lower tercile attributable to high tendency of below normal soil moisture quotient in the forecasted Figure 8: Probability of lower tercile soil moisture period.
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