National Drought Management Authority MARSABIT COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR APRIL 2021

DROUGHT EW PHASE: ALARM Early Warning (EW) Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Phase Trend Agro-pastoral Alert Stable Pastoral All species Alarm Worsening Fisher folk/Casual Alarm Stable labour/Petty Trading County Alarm Stable Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Range/Value Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators Rainfall (% of Normal) 32 80 -120 Rainfall: In the month under review, most parts of the county received VCI-3Month (County) 33.75 >35 below normal rains while other parts remained dry with exception of Forecast (VCI-3Month) >35 Moyale Sub-County, which received near average rains that were poorly and unevenly distributed. Forecast soil moisture 0.2 < 0.2 Vegetation condition: 3-months Vegetation Condition Index for the Production indicators Value Normal month under review was 33.75 across the county thus slightly improved Livestock Body Good- Good when compared to the previous months VCI of 31.72 but remained in the Condition Fair moderate vegetation deficit band. Socio-Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Milk Production 0.75 >1.6Litres Production indicators: Livestock body condition was good-fair in all the Livestock Migration Unusual Normal livelihood zones. Milk production was below the short term average. Pattern Unusual livestock migration was reported across the County. Incidences of Livestock deaths (from No death No death livestock diseases were reported. Area under crop production is below the drought) long-term average due to late onset and below normal rains. Access Indicators Value Normal Access indicators: Household and livestock water distances increased Terms of Trade (ToT) 70 >75 across the County due to partial recharge of 30-40 percent of sub-surface water sources. Breakdown of some strategic boreholes was reported in Milk Consumption 0.75 >1.4 Litres North Horr and Laisamis Sub-counties. Milk consumption was below the Return distance to water 9.5 0.0-4.3Km short-term average and terms of trade were less favourable as prices of Utilization indicators Value Normal goats reduced. Nutrition Status 11.2 0.0-11.0 Utilization indicators. Household food consumption score shifted in the (malnourished) moderate category whereas households adopted crisis consumption based Coping Strategy Index 19.7 <18 coping strategies. High admission trends recorded in the supplementary Food Consumption 34.1 >35 and therapeutic feeding programmes due to food insecurity situation.

▪ Short rains harvests ▪ Planting/Weeding ▪ Long rains harvests ▪ Short rains ▪ Short dry spell ▪ Long rains ▪ A long dry spell ▪ Planting/weeding ▪ Reduced milk yields ▪ High Calving Rate ▪ Land preparation ▪ Increased HH Food Stocks ▪ Milk Yields Increase ▪ Increased HH Food Stocks

▪ Land preparation ▪ Kidding (Sept)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE

Marsabit County (January-April 2021) RFE (2021) RFE_AVG NDVI (2021) NDVI_AVG 0.30 30.00

0.25 25.00

0.20 20.00

0.15 15.00

0.10 10.00

Rainfall For Estimate (mm) 0.05 5.00

0.00 0.00 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Normalised DifferenceVegetationIndex(NDVI) Month/Dekad Figure 1: Dekadal Rainfall (mm) and NDVI values compared to the Long Term Average Source: WFP-VAM, CHIRPS/MODIS • From the figure 1 shown above, dekadal rainfall for estimate (RFE) amounts for the first and second dekads were significantly below normal when compared to their corresponding long- term dekadal rainfall for estimate (RFE) averages. • Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the first and second dekads were slightly below normal when compared to their respective long term dekadal NDVI values.

1.2 RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND DISTRIBUTION Rainfall (March) Rainfall (April) Max (Temp) Min (Temp)

40.00 75.00

36.00 60.00

32.00 45.00

28.00 30.00 (mm) Rainfall

24.00 15.00 Temperature Degreein Celsius

20.00 0.00 North Horr Dukana El-gade El-hadi Kalacha Malabot Balesa Gas

Figure 2: Rainfall Amounts and Temperature at Health Facilities under One Health Project, North Horr Sub-County • Generally, County experienced depressed rains in the month under review, which was considerably below the long term average. The long rains were expected to be at its peak in Drought Bulletin_April_2021_Marsabit County Page 2

the current month, however the amounts received were mostly of low intensity accompanied with reduced differential rainfall intervals. • From figure 2 shown above, rains in North Horr Sub-county considerably subsided when compared to the previous month across the rainfall stations except Dukana that received minimal rainfall totalling 14mm in 3 rainy days. Furthermore, Garwole, Horronderi, Demo and Forolle received fair-poor rains in 1-3 rainy days. • In Moyale Sub-county, most areas received rains in the month under review. Moyale Township recorded 102.5mm of rainfall amounts in 7 rainy days with the highest precipitation received on 20th April of 33.5mm while the remaining days received traced rainfall amounts ranging between 0.1mm and 0.6mm. Equally, some parts of Moyale Sub- county namely; Golbo, Butiye, Heillu Manyatta, Obbu, Sololo and Uran wards received near average rains with exception of Ellebor and Elledimtu that generally remained dry. • Marsabit Mountain received 62.6mm of rainfall in 6-7 days. The highest amount of rainfall was received in two days of 20.8mm and 27.2mm on 17th and 18th of April respectively while scanty rains were received in the remaining days. • Some pockets of Laisamis Sub-County namely Ngurnit, Mbagas, Illaut, Gatab, Kargi, South Horr, Buuro, Elem and Hafare received fair-poor rains in 1-2 rainy days with most parts prevailed in drier conditions in the month under review. • Spatial and temporal distribution of rains in the month under review was poor and uneven respectively across the county. Generally, pastoral livelihood zone (North Horr and Laisamis Sub-counties) received below normal rains while the agro-pastoral areas of Saku and Moyale received below normal and near average rains respectively.

1.3 CUMULATIVE RAINFALL 2019 2020 Long Term Average(2008-2018) 2021 1200

1000

800

600

400

(mm) Rainfall

200

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure 3: Cumulative Rainfall Performance (mm) • From the figure (3) shown above, current seasonal cumulative rains are remarkably below the long-term cumulative rainfall amounts with a paltry 32percent of the normal long rains received. Generally, 2019 long rains failed and was significantly below the long term average while 2020 long rains were exceedingly above the long term average (MAM). With failure of the rains in the month of April coupled by expected cessation of the rains in May, the 2021 MAM rains might follow a similar trend of 2019 (dry year) long rains hence high likelihood failure of two consecutive rainy seasons. Drought Bulletin_April_2021_Marsabit County Page 3

2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION 2.1 1 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) • From the figure 4 shown below, current vegetation condition index is 33.75 hence illustrated no notable improvement when likened to the previous month’s vegetation condition index of 31.72 necessitated by failure of the April rains which is usually the peak month of the long rains season. No notable improvement in vegetation cover as the 3-months VCI stagnated in the moderate category as Figure 4: Vegetation Condition Index Matrix across Marsabit County the depressed rains received had a trivial knock on effect on forage regeneration. With the expected cessation of the long rains in the second dekad of May, the 3-months vegetation condition index will reduce but still remain in the moderate vegetation deficit band. • When compared based on the Sub-counties, Saku Sub-county 3- months VCI significantly reduced from 43.32 in March to 36.44 in April. Similarly, Laisamis Sub-county recorded a reduction from 32.36 in March to 31.0 in Figure 5: Vegetation Condition Index Trends April. North Horr Sub-county registered a slight increase from 32.39 in March to 34.15 in April. However, considerable increase in the vegetation condition index in Moyale Sub- county was recorded from 25.38 in March to 37.68 in April attributed to the near average rains received in the month under review. • Figure (5) shown above compares April 2021 vegetation condition index to April 2021 long term average, historical maximum and minimum vegetation condition index values. The current vegetation condition index equals the long term average and it’s expected to decline below the long term average in the month of May due to expected cessation of the long rains. • Sub-counties vegetation condition index forecasts in Figure (7) below indicates Laisamis and North Horr Sub-counties will remain in the moderate vegetation deficit category while Saku Sub-county will shift from the normal vegetation greenness band in April to moderate vegetation deficit category in May. Moyale Sub-county will remain in the normal vegetation greenness band due to the spill over effect of the near average rains received.

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Figure 6: Vegetation Condition Index phase by Sub-County Figure 7: Saku Sub-County 3-months VCI • (Figure 8) exhibits forecasted soil moisture that indicates a likelihood deterioration across the county in the MAM season due to high land surface temperature and depressed rains received. Expected cessation of the long rains in the month of May worsen the soil moisture quotient across the County. On average, there is a 0.2 probability that soil moisture will be in the lower tercile attributable to high tendency of below normal soil moisture quotient in the forecasted Figure 8: Probability of lower tercile soil moisture period. • Figure 9 shows TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture time series for Marsabit County. The grey lines show the progression of soil moisture throughout historic years (1983-2019). The black lines show the progression of soil moisture in 2021. The dashed vertical lines show the start (1st st March) and end (31 May) of the rainy season. Soil moisture declined in January but improved in the months of February and March. However, depressed rains received led to a declining trend of soil moisture in the Figure 9: TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture for Marsabit County month under review.

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2.1.2 Pasture • Pasture condition is fair-poor in the pastoral livelihood zone of North Horr and Laisamis while fair in the agro-pastoral areas of Moyale Sub-county with parts of Uran ward (Ellebor and Elledimtu) exhibiting poor pasture. However, pasture is good-fair in most parts of Saku sub-county. • However, in some localized parts of Laisamis Sub-county (Kargi, Ririma, Ngurnit, Farakoren, Falam and Lontolio) and North horr Sub-county (Horronderi, Forole, Hurri- Hills, Turbi, Dukana and Demo, Hurri Hills, Uranidera, Chari Ashe, Illeret and Sibiloi), pasture was good-fair. • When compared to similar periods, pasture condition is below normal in all the livelihood zones attributed to multiple combination of late onset of the long rains, intense livestock migration and failure of the rains in the month of April. • With expected cessation of the long rains in the month of May, available pasture is expected to last for the next one and half months in the pastoral zone of Laisamis and North Horr Sub- counties while 3 months in the agro-pastoral areas of Moyale and Saku Sub-counties. 2.1.3 Browse • Browse condition is fair in the pastoral livelihood zone while good-fair in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone. • Available browse will last for 3 months when compared to the normal of 4 and half months across the livelihood zones. Variations in pasture and browse conditions across the livelihood zones was mainly occasioned by poor spatial distribution of the long rains and mass livestock migration in the month under review. • Notable emergence of non-palatable vegetation was witnessed in some parts of North Horr, Laisamis, Saku and Moyale sub-counties especially calotropis procera and bush encroachment. • Quality and quantity of browse is fair in all the livelihood zones. Insecurity hindered access to pasture and browse across the livelihood zones especially in Bulluk, Sibiloi and Balesaru in North sub-county, Badassa, Gof chopa, Dololo Dokatu, Jaldesa and Kubiqallo in Saku sub-county and the border between Laisamis and Samburu County.

2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources

Figure 10: Main sources of water across the livelihood zones Drought Bulletin_April_2021_Marsabit County Page 6

• From figure 10 shown above, boreholes and water pans are the main water sources employed by majority of the communities in all the livelihood zones as depicted by a response rate of 32 percent and 23 percent respectively. • When compared to similar periods, water pans are usually the main sources of water at this particular time of the year. Other water sources adopted by the communities in the month under review are shallow wells, seasonal rivers, springs, natural ponds and traditional river wells at 14 percent, 12 percent, 8 percent and 5 percent respectively. • A paltry 30-40 percent of all surface water sources are partially recharged and with expected cessation of the long rains and increased land surface temperature, recharge levels of sub- surface water sources are likely to dip across the livelihood zones. Permanent water sources such as boreholes, shallow wells and springs are currently over utilized by both human and livestock population thus leading to frequent breakdown of strategic boreholes across the county.

Table 1.0: Areas that require water trucking and non-functional boreholes Sub- Areas where water trucking is Non-functional boreholes County required Saku • Dololo Dokatu, Qachacha, Karare, • N/A Jaldesa North • Kalesa Manyatta, Lag Wachu, • Marime (47 GI pipes, class Horr Burarat, Hurri Hills, Kubi Qoti, C) Yaa Garra, Qonchora Kushuna, • Forolle ( 51 GI pipes, class Yaa Sharbana, Yaa Algana, Konon C) Gos, Yaa Odola, Yaa Galbo, Mude/Demo, Oronderi, Shankera, Toricha, Borri Manyatta, Qatamur, Kubi Adhi, Arilo Manyatta, Kob Dertu, Olom Moyale • Godhe, Watiti, Funan Nyata, • N/A Amballo, Qonqom, Oga, Antut, Giribe, Elle Dimtu, Elle Borr, Funan Qumbi Laisamis • Ulauli, Laisamis Sec. School, • Gangeisa (Three phase, Intiliya Manyatta, Silapani Pry. 4kw submersible motor) School, TTI, Laisamis Referral • Namarei (Three phase,3kw Hospital, Ndikir, Weltei, motor) Sakardala, Bagasi, Kambinye, • Arge (Three phase,3kw Namarei Manyatta, Namarei Pry. motor) School, Namarei Health Centre, • Sori Adhi (13.5KVA Lister Arge Community, Lmooti, petter genset) Lependera, Farakoren Pry. School • Ndikir (2.2kw motor) • Tirgamo (4Kw submersible motor complete with an SP 9-21 pump head-1 set)

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2.2.2 Household Water Access and Utilization

Household Water Distances in Marsabit County-April 2021 12

10

8

6

4

2

0 Household Water Distance in Km inDistance Water Household Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Short Term Average (2016-2020 Wet Year Dry Year 2021

Figure 11: Current household return water distances compared to the Short Term Average distances (Km)

• From (Figure 11) shown above, return household water distances to the main water sources was 9.5km in the month under review which illustrates an increase when compared to the preceding month’s household water distance of 8.8km in all the livelihood zones. The current household water distance of 9.5km is above the short term average household water distance of 4.3km. • Equally, the current household water distances are above water distances during wet and dry years. Household waiting time at the water source across the livelihood zones is high due to low recharge of the open water sources and frequent breakdowns of strategic boreholes. Waiting time ranged between 45 and 60 minutes against the normal of 30 minutes in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone while oscillated between 2 and 3 hours against the normal of 45 minutes in the pastoral livelihood zone. • Water consumption per household per day was 10 litres in agro-pastoral and 5 litres in pastoral livelihood zone compared to the normal 15-20 litres per person per day. • With expected cessation of the long rains in the month of May, household water distances will increase further thus likely decline of water consumption at the household level.

2.2.3 Livestock Access • From (Figure 12) shown below, return livestock trekking distance from grazing areas to water points is 20.1km in all the livelihood zones which depicts an increase when compared to the preceding month’s grazing distance of 18.6km. • The current livestock trekking distance is the short term average and wet year distances of 15.0km and 14.6km respectively and equates to the dry year livestock trekking distance. • Livestock trekking distances slightly reduced in the agro-pastoral areas of Moyale and Saku sub-counties (9-11km) whereas the pastoral areas North Horr and Laisamis Sub-counties exhibited an increase from 15-20km in the previous month to 20-25km in the month under review. However, remarkably longer trekking distances above 35km were recorded in North Horr Sub-county (Yaa-Gara, Konon-Gos, Agargabo, Susuk and Mataburi) and Laisamis Sub-county (Oltorot, Sivicon, Sarima, Moite, Gudas, SoriAdhi, Malgis, Buuro and Hafare).

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Livestock Trekking Distances in Marsabit County-April 2021 45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Livestock Trekking Distances in Km in Distances TrekkingLivestock Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Short Term Average (2016-2020 Wet Year Dry Year 2021

Figure 12: Current return livestock trekking distances compared to the Short Term Average distances (Km)

• Watering intervals for cattle is after one day and 2-3 days in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones respectively compared to the normal watering interval of 1 day. Camels watering frequency is after 5-6 days in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone which is normal while in the pastoral livelihood zone, camels watering frequency is 10-14 days against the normal of 6-8 days. In the pastoral livelihood zone, small stock watering frequency is after 3-5 days while 2 days in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone compared to the normal of 2-3 days. With the expected cessation of the long rains in May, watering frequencies are expected to decline for all the livestock species across the livelihood zones.

3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition • Livestock body condition is good to fair for all species across the County save for some parts of North Horr and Laisamis Sub-counties, where small stocks exhibit poor body condition in areas of Turbi ward, Maikona and Loiyangalani during the month under review. • With likely cessation of the long rains in May, livestock body condition is anticipated to gradually improve in Moyale Sub-county due to the spill over effect of the near average rains. However, the drier than usual conditions in most parts of North Horr and Laisamis Sub-counties coupled with depressed rains poses negative causal effect on livestock productivity hence expected deterioration of livestock body condition for all types. 3.1.2 Livestock Migration • In North Horr Sub County, livestock from Turbi ward have moved towards Demo, Koronder, Chafa-Chachane, Minole, Hawaye, Lalesa, Arbijan along the border of Wajir and Horronder. Livestock from Maikona ward are concentrated in areas of Shegel, Horronder, and Hurri Hills while in Dukana wards, livestock from Balesa and El-Hadi areas migrated towards Forolle, Alder, Dololo Arre, Lag-Bhalal, Gof-Gababa, Kubi onn-Galbo, Batha- Afar, Darathe, Garwole, Araftis, Qonye, Sabare and Qarari areas while livestock from North Horr ward have moved towards Konon-Gos, Lag-Balal, Qamacha, Furr, Darathe and Dukana areas.

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• In Laisamis Sub County, livestock from Loiyangalani ward have migrated towards areas of Sarimo, Moite, Gas and Sarima while in Korr and Kargi-South Horr wards livestock have moved to Falam, Hafare, Ririma, Ramo, HoloDira, Silango, Merille and Irrir. Livestock from Merille ward majorly cattle have migrated in areas of Merti while in Laisamis and Logologo wards, livestock are generally around Malgis, Lontolio, Merille, Gudas and Sori- Adi. • In Moyale sub-county, livestock from Ellebor, Elledimtu, Uran and Sololo have migrated to Amballo and Themu. Also, there is mass migration of Livestock from neighbouring county of Wajir and Ethiopia towards Dabel location in Golbo ward. • Livestock in the agro-pastoral areas of Saku Sub County are concentrated around Jaldesa and Kubiqallo areas. With expected cessation of the long rains in May, livestock migration is likely to be more intense across the livelihood zones. 3.1.3 Tropical Livestock Units (TLU) and Calving & Kidding Rates • In the agro-pastoral livelihood zone, poor income households had 2-4 tropical livestock units compared to 3-5 normally while the middle income had 6-10 compared to 10-15 normally. In the pastoral livelihood zone, poor income households had 3-5 tropical livestock units compared to 4-7 normally while the middle income had 8-14 compared to 15-20 normally. Tropical livestock units are below the long term average due to minimal herds recovery from the 2016-2017 extreme drought that led to massive livestock deaths and increased livestock generation intervals. 3.1.4 Livestock Diseases and Mortalities • Goat and sheep pox and ORS or ORF was reported among the camel calves in parts of North Horr and Laisamis Sub Counties. Diarrhoea in small stocks resulted in deaths amongst the kids and lambs in Dukana and Dabel. • Cases of abortions in Moyale, sudden death of Sheep in Forolle, camel cough in North-horr Ward (Konon Gos), CCPP in Loiyangalani and rabies in Saku Sub-county (Songa and Jaldesa). Pest infestation was reported in areas of Dibis in Dukana wards where mortalities among the camel calves were Figure 13: Geospatial Density of Cases by Ward common.

Table 2.0: Measure of Disease Severity by Livestock Species Species Morbidity (%) Mortality (%) Case fatality (%) Camel 9.5 2.2 22.8 Cattle 7.1 1.4 19.1 Goats 11.0 2.0 18.3 Sheep 8.3 1.3 15.8 Shoats 8.6 1.2 14.1

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3.1.5 Milk Production

Household Milk Production in Marsabit County-April 2021 2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

Milk Production in Litres/HH/Day in ProductionMilk 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Long Term Average (2007-2020) Wet Year Dry Year 2021

Figure 14: Milk production per household per day in litres across the livelihood zones

• From figure 14 shown above, household milk production per day for the month under review was 0.75 litres/household/day across the livelihood zones thus depicts a steady decline when compared to the previous month’s milk production of 1.0 litres/household/day. • Current milk production of 0.75 litres is below the long term average milk production of 1.6 litres and also lower than milk production in wet and dry years. • Below normal milk production was attributed to mass livestock migration and failure of the April rains. Milk production is expected to reduce further and fall below the long term average for the next 2-3 months due to failure of two consecutive seasons. • Milk retailed at an average of Kshs.80-120 per litre across the livelihood zones compared to Kshs.75-90 normally which is 20-25 percent above normal.

3.1 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION 3.2.1 Area Under Crop Cultivation • Farmers in preparation for the long rains planting season carried out early land preparation activities in the county. 1926 acres of land was prepared and planted under various crops. Currently, 300 acres of productive land has been ploughed in Moyale Sub-county (95 acres by county tractors, 60 acres by private tractors, 90 acres by oxen and 55 acres on hand digging/hoe). 300 acres of agricultural land has been ploughed in Saku Sub county supported by WFP and Caritas. 60 acres of land has been ploughed for farmers who paid through the bank, estimated acreage ploughed by private tractors is 200 acres and 50 acres has been ploughed using oxen. Therefore, total acreage ploughed in Saku Sub-county is 610 acres, which doubles the acreage ploughed in Moyale Sub-county. • Area under crop production include; Maize (850 acres), beans (550 acres), cowpeas (100 acres), green grams (120 acres), sorghum (220 acres) and 86 acres under horticultural production. • Onset of the long rains was late and this led to some farmers not planting. The planted seeds have germinated and farmers are now weeding and others undertaking crop pests control.

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• The current area under crop cultivation is below the long term average attributable below normal long rains in the agro-pastoral areas of Saku Sub-county and Moyale (near average rains) which might not sustain the rainfed crops to physiological maturity.

4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices

Cattle Prices in Marsabit County-April 2021 30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

(Kshs.)PricesCattle 5,000

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Short Term Average (2016-2020) Wet Year Dry Year 2021 Figure 15: Cattle Prices Trends in Marsabit County • From the figure (15) shown above, cattle price for the month under review was Kshs. 21,400 thus an indication of a steady decline when compared to the preceding months’ cattle price of Kshs. 22,150. • When compared to similar periods, current cattle price of Kshs 21,400 is below the short- term average and wet years’ prices while above the dry year prices. • Below average cattle price was occasioned by deteriorating cattle body condition majorly in the pastoral livelihood zone. • With expected drier than usual conditions in May, cattle prices are likely to follow a similar gradual declining trend in the next one month across the livelihood zones. 4.1.2 Goat Prices

Goat Prices in Marsabit County-April 2021 5000.00

4000.00

3000.00

2000.00

1000.00 Goat Prices (Kshs.)PricesGoat

0.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Short Term Average (2016-2020) Wet Year Dry Year 2021 Figure 16: Goat Prices Trends in Marsabit County Drought Bulletin_April_2021_Marsabit County Page 12

• The current average goat price is Kshs. 3,500 thus below normal when compared to the short term average price of Kshs. 3,927 as illustrated in figure 16 above. Below normal goat prices were attributed to deteriorating goats body condition in most parts of the County. Notably, the current goat prices equate to the dry year’s goat prices. Below normal prices were exhibited in major markets of pastoral areas of Laisamis and North Horr due to disruptions of the supply chains mainly from the feeder markets occasioned by mass livestock migration. • Moyale livestock market recorded favourable prices of Kshs. 4,500-5,000. The traded livestock market volumes improved attributable to improved demand from the neighbouring Ethiopia market. • Approximately, 75 percent of the livestock markets were operational with exception of Forolle market in North Horr sub-county that remained closed due to insecurity while Dabel and Sololo markets in Moyale sub-county are not functional due to weakened demand and poor linkages with traders. • Goat’s prices are expected to gradually decline in the month of May due to expected cessation of the long rains and weakened demand in the pastoral areas of North Horr and Laisamis Sub-counties.

4.1.3 Sheep Prices

Sheep Prices in Marsabit County-April 2021 3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

Sheep Prices (Kshs.)PricesSheep 500

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Short Term Average (2016-2020) Wet Year Dry Year 2021 Figure 17: Sheep Prices Trends in Marsabit County • From the figure 17 shown above, sheep price for the month under review was Kshs 3,000 thus remained stable when compared to the previous month’s sheep price of Kshs 3,100. • When compared to the short-term average price, current sheep price is normal and slightly lower than the wet year prices. • Traded volumes for sheep was 40-60 daily hence a significant decline due to reduction in demand of sheep in the external markets. • Sheep prices are expected to gradually decline in the next one month across the livelihood zone due to potential failure of the long rains and poor linkage to external traders. • Volatile inter-market trading margins between the major livestock markets underscore the importance of improving market integration especially in the pastoral livelihood zone.

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4.2 CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize

Maize Prices in Marsabit County-April 2021 50

40

30

20

Maize Prices (Kshs.)Prices Maize 10

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Short Term Average (2016-2020) Wet Year Dry Year 2021

Figure 18: Maize Prices Trends in Marsabit County • The current average maize price is Ksh 50/kg, which is slightly above the short-term average price of Ksh 47 as illustrated in figure 18 above. Moyale sub-county recorded favourable prices averaging at Kshs.30/kg attributed to cross border supplies from Ethiopia. • Similarly, Saku sub-county posted stable maize price at Ksh.40/kg occasioned by supplies from the external commodity markets of Nyahururu and Meru. However, most of the commodity markets in North Horr and Laisamis sub-county recorded high maize prices of Kshs. 50-60/kg denoting 20 percent above the short term average mainly occasioned by poor market integration. • Notable high maize prices were recorded along the Lake Turkana with prices averaging at Kshs. 83/kg due to unprecedented surge in water levels that completely cut-off the local settlements from the main markets. • Weaker demand and poor market systems in the pastoral areas will distort supplies in the local commodity markets thus likely gradual increase in maize prices. 4.2.2 Beans

Beans Prices in Marsabit County-April 2021 120

100

80

60

40

Beans Prices (Kshs.)Prices Beans 20

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Short Term Average (2016-2020) Wet Year Dry Year 2021 Figure 19: Beans Prices Trends in Marsabit County Drought Bulletin_April_2021_Marsabit County Page 14

• From the figure 19 shown above, beans prices retailed at Kshs 95/kg in the month under review across the livelihood zones hence relatively remained stable when compared to the previous month’s beans price of Kshs.96/kg. The current beans price of Kshs.95 is above the short-term average beans price of Kshs 90/kg by 7 percent. • Moyale commodity market posted favourable beans prices averaging at Kshs 60-70/kg. Favourable beans prices in Moyale commodity market was attributed to improved supplies from the neighbouring Ethiopia market. • However, Laisamis and North Horr Sub-Counties recorded high beans prices of Kshs 100- 120/kg attributed to poor access and unprecedented surge of Lake Turkana with areas of Komote and Layeni in Laisamis sub-county illustrating extortionate beans prices averaging Kshs.145/kg.

4.2.3 Terms of Trade (TOT)

Terms of Trade in Marsabit County-April 2021 120

100

80

60

40

20

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Short Term Average (2016-2020) Wet Year Dry Year 2021 Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat a of salefrom boughtmaizeof Kgs Figure 20: Current Terms of Trade versus Short Term Average • The current terms of trade gradually declined from 75 in the previous month to 70 kilograms in exchange for the sale of a goat in the month under review. Terms of trade is less favourable attributed to multiple combination of below average goat prices and above normal maize prices. • Moyale sub-county depicted favourable terms of trade than other Sub-Counties attributed to better goats’ prices coupled with lower maize prices and the vibrant Ethiopia market. • However, terms of trade for Laisamis and North Horr Sub-Counties were considerably below the short term average mainly due to high maize prices and weakened livestock demand. • Additionally, current terms of trade are below the wet and dry years’ terms of trade. With expected gradual increase and decline in maize and goats’ prices respectively, terms of trade are likely to deteriorate further in the next one month.

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5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption

Milk Consumption per Household in Marsabit County-April 2021 2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

Milk Consumption in Litres in ConsumptionMilk 0.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Short Term Average (2016-2020) Wet Year Dry Year 2021

Figure 21: Milk consumption at household level in Litres

• From the figure 21 shown above, household milk consumption is 0.75 litres/household/day in the month under review across the livelihood zones thus relatively remained stable when compared to the preceding month. • When compared to the short-term average milk consumption of 1.4litres/household/day, current milk consumption is way below normal by 46 percent attributed to inaccessibility of milk as majority of livestock have migrated. • Likewise, current milk consumption is below the dry and wet years’ household milk consumption. With the potential failure of the long rains season, milk consumption will likely reduce further.

5.2 FOOD CONSUMPTION SCORE (FCS) • The current food consumption score (FCS) across the County is 34.1 with 4.4 percent of households having poor Poor Borderline Acceptable food consumption while 100 those with borderline and acceptable consumption 80 53.6 50.6 were 41.9 percent and 53.7 60.1 57.9 56.7 57.3 percent respectively in all 60 livelihood zones. In comparison to the previous 40 month, deterioration in the 39.6 43.5 38.2 food consumption 20 36.5 38.2 40.4 categories was noted from Score Consumption Food 6.8 the acceptable band in 0 3.4 3.9 2.9 4.5 5.9 March to the borderline in Feb Mar April Feb Mar April the month under review. Agro-pastoral Pastoral • In the agro-pastoral Figure 22: Food Consumption Trends in Marsabit livelihood zone, proportion of households that had poor food consumption was 2.9 percent Drought Bulletin_April_2021_Marsabit County Page 16

while those with borderline and acceptable food consumption were 40.4 percent and 56.7 percent respectively. Equally, proportion of households in the pastoral livelihood zone that had poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores were 5.9 percent, 43.5 percent and 50.6 percent respectively. Generally, food consumption score is expected to remain in the moderate band in the next one month. Table 3.0: Food Consumption Score by Wards FCS Mean Poor FCS Borderline FCS Acceptable FCS County 34.1 4.4% 41.9% 53.7% Golbo 35.9 3.9% 39.6% 56.5% Karare 38.7 1.5% 43.5% 55.0% Korr 30.8 3.7% 65.5% 30.8% Loiyangalani 28.5 17.8% 72.1% 10.1% Laisamis 34.6 1.2% 29.6% 69.2% Turbi 32.9 1.9% 42.5% 55.6% North Horr 37.5 1.3% 43.9% 56.1% Dukana 30.6 2.6% 72.9% 24.5% Sagante 31.4 4.2% 60.1% 35.7% Uran 40.5 0.5% 15.5% 84.0% • From the table shown above, 4.4 percent of households consumed staples and vegetables every day and never or very rarely are consuming protein rich food such as meat and dairy. 41.9 percent of the households consumed staples and vegetables every day, accompanied by oil and pulses a few times a week while 53.7 percent consumed staples and vegetables every day, regularly accompanied by oil and pulses and occasionally meat or dairy product. • Most of the wards fell in the acceptable food consumption band with exception of Loiyangalani, Korr, Laisamis, Dukana and Sagante wards falling in the borderline food consumption band category.

5.3 HEALTH AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.3.1 Nutrition Status • Figure 23 below illustrates MUAC of 11.2 percent of children who are moderately and severely malnourished Proportion of Children Malnourished in Marsabit County which is slightly above Long Term Average Wet Year 2021 Dry Year 14.00 the long term average

MUAC of 11.0 percent ) 12.00 and exceedingly above the wet year MUAC of 10.00 7.5 percent. Notably, 8.00 proportion of children who are severely 6.00 malnourished are higher than those in 4.00 the wet and normal

(Family MUAC <125mm MUAC(Family years while children 2.00 who are moderately 0.00 malnourished are than Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec those in dry years. Figure 23: Proportion of Children with MUAC < 125 mm

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Tabl e 4.0: Prevalence of GAM, MAM and SAM based on WHZ (Kargi/South Horr ward) All Boys Girls n = 1356 n = 677 n = 679

Prevalence of global malnutrition (524) 38.6 % (280) 41.4 % (244) 35.9 %

Prevalence of moderate malnutrition (388) 28.6 % (200) 29.5 % (188) 27.7 %

Prevalence of severe malnutrition (136) 10.0 % (80) 11.8 % (56) 8.2 %

Source: Department of Health • From the table shown above, Global Acute Malnutrition for Kargi/South Horr is 38.6 percent hence indicative of extreme critical phase. Mass screening results illustrates a deteriorating nutritional situation of children below the age of five years as current GAM rates have more than doubled the global threshold of 15 percent. • Proportion of children who are moderately and severely malnourished were 28.6 percent and 10.0 percent respectively. All children identified as malnourished were directly enrolled for treatment. • Mass screening was also conducted in Malabot, Gas and Dukana where a total of 1245 children below the age of five years were reached. GAM prevalence of 28.3 percent was reported with a proxy coverage of 31 percent and 40.1 percent for SAM and MAM treatment respectively. Also, Hulla Hulla dispensary is in Alert stage of IMAM surge threshold.

• High admission 800 of IMAM cases 739 at the health 700 645 665 facilities in North 600 Horr, Laisamis and Moyale Sub- 500 counties were 450 400 404 recorded. SFP 364 and OTP New 300 283

Admissions 230 Number Caseloadsof exhibits a steady 200 188 190 135 156 decline, however 100 111 98 the caseloads are still high possibly 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar attributed to a surge in SFP New Admissions OTP New Admissions morbidity cases. Figure 24: IMAM Program New Admission Trends in Marsabit County

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5.4 COPING STRATEGIES • From the (Figure 25) shown, the current reduced consumption based coping strategy index 2018 2019 2020 2021 (rCSI) for the 21 households is 19.7 20 compared to 13.9 similar period last 19 year hence indicative 18 of significant increase in 17 application of coping 16 strategies over time. Consumption based 15

coping strategy Coping Strategy Index 14 index deteriorated from stressed 13 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (January) to Crisis in February, March and Figure 25: Coping Strategy Trends across the County April with rCSI of 19.6, 20.5 and 19.7 respectively. Generally, households applied strategies to cope with food gaps at slightly less severe degree than the previous month.

Table 5.0: Consumption Based Coping Strategy Index by Wards Consumption based coping strategy index(rCSI) Sub-county Ward rCSI Saku Sagante 18.3 Saku Karare 9.30 Laisamis Korr 15.9 Laisamis Merille 26.8 Laisamis Loiyangalani 31.2 North Horr North Horr 36.4 North Horr Turbi 15.9 North Horr Dukana 16.1 Moyale Uran 12.0 Moyale Golbo 15.5 • From table shown above, households in North Horr, Loiyangalani, Merille and Sagante applied crisis reduced consumption based coping strategies whereas those in Dukana, Turbi, Karare, Sagante, Uran, Golbo and Korr wards employed stressed consumption based coping strategies. • Generally, 1.6 percent, 53.3 percent and 45.1 percent of the households applied reduced consumption based coping strategies that were minimal, stressed and crisis respectively. • Notable reduced consumption based coping strategies employed by the households were reduction in frequency of food consumption, reduced portion size of meals and reliance on less preferred food in all the livelihood zones.

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6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Food Aid • Kenya Red Cross Society is currently undertaking one-off food distribution to 7,889 households across the County. Saku Sub-county (1,666 households), Laisamis Sub-county (1,663 households), North Horr Sub-county (2,460 households) and Moyale Sub-county (2,100 households). Each targeted household to receive 20kg of rice, 10kg of sugar, 10kg of flour, 5 litres of vegetable oil, 10kg of maize, 5kg of beans and 1kg of salt. • Secours Islamique France (SIF) distributed food in Saku Sub-County, during the month of Ramadan 2021 worth Kshs.5000 per household. These included dry foodstuff –flour, rice, legumes, cooking oil etc. • Nawiri Child Development Programme (ChildFund Kenya) distributed food rations to 130 households in Karare ward (each household receiving 12kgs of rice, 10kgs of beans, 2 litres of fortified cooking oil and 1kg of salt). Also, distributed food rations to 150 households in Maikona ward (each household receiving 25kgs of maize, 10kgs of beans and 2 litres of fortified cooking oil). 6.2 Non Food Aid • FAO supported training capacity building in surveillance of desert locust and quela birds. A total of 20 youths, 50 adults and 15 technical staff from department of agriculture were sensitized. • Caritas and FAO supported on-farm trainings on agronomic aspects of seeds distributed, utilization of cowpeas and sorghum and post-harvest management of cereals and pulses. CARITAS supported 185 farmers in ploughing of land. • CCM supported One Health mobile clinics (12 days a month of integrated animal, human and environmental health service provision in El Hadi, North Horr and Balesa catchment area. Supported creation of a Zoonotic Disease Unit (ZDU) in Marsabit County involving key County and Sub County stakeholders. One Health Sensitization activities in 9 primary schools in North Horr Sub County. • Nawiri Child Development Programme (ChildFund Kenya) renovated bongole springs and installed solar power system. • Kenya Red Cross Society supported mass screening in Kargi/South Horr ward to establish the nutrition status of children. The exercise involved active case finding, screening diagnosis and treatment of malnutrition cases in all villages linked to the facilities. • CRS supported roll out of adapted IMAM surge, identification process of small micro enterprises for commercialization of milk value chain and environmental compliance assessment for health facilities in North Horr and Laisamis. • Concern Worldwide supported County Department of Health Services to conduct mass screening in Maikona in response to the health facility registering Alarm phase as per the IMAM surge classification. • Concern Worldwide supported outreaches in 13 sites in Illeret ward and 7 sites in Loiyangalani ward. A total of 1260 children were screened out of which 3 and 47children were admitted in OTP and SFP respectively. A total of 196 and 338 children were reported as revisits in OTP and SFP respectively in Illeret while in Loiyangalani a total of 158 children were screened out of which 6 and 25children were admitted in OTP and SFP respectively. The three health workers deployed in the previous months continued to offer support in Illeret health facility.

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• Concern Worldwide supported hygiene promotion at community level: County and sub county teams conducted hygiene promotion monitoring in Laisamis Sub County. Objective of the monitoring was to assess progress of hygiene promotion activities and offer technical support to the health workers. During home visits CHVs in North Horr and Laisamis Sub counties, the CHVs were able to sensitize households on hygiene promotion activities. A total of 5392 were sensitized on proper handwashing, 5363 sensitized on water treatment, 7276 on water storage in a clean container. A total of 4870 households treated water, 5009 stored water in closed containers while 3833 households had functional handwashing facilities with soap/ash. • Concern Worldwide supported training of borehole operators and WUAs: A total of 22 male borehole operators from North Horr Sub County were trained on basic borehole standard operating procedures and basic trouble shooting skills. 30(M:19 F:11) WUA members from Maikona and Turbi were trained on water governance, tariffs and accountability to improve management for efficient service delivery • Concern Worldwide supported expansion of IMAM Surge pilot: Trainings and meetings were conducted in North Horr and Laisamis Sub Counties on the three components of expanded IMAM surge pilot; (a)Health surge component; the health surge team trained health workers and CHVs on Adapted Health Surge pilot. A total of 20 health workers and 28 CHVs were trained. (b)Community preventive action component; the teams visited all the targeted villages in the 6 community units (3 in North Horr and 3 in Laisamis) for the rollout of the pilot study. A total of 233 participants were engaged during the meetings with community members. (c)community screening component-; the teams conducted sensitization sessions in Forolle, El-Hadi, North Horr, Illaut, Ballah, Kargi, Loiyangalani and Elmolo health facilities. A total of 23 health workers, 87 CHVs and key community representatives were engaged during the training and discussion sessions. • Welthungerhilfe supported 500 households in North Horr and Laisamis Sub-Counties with cash transfer of Kshs. 5,000 per household for desert locust recovery. Provided farm inputs (seeds, jembe, panga) to 500 farmers in Saku with in kind support of (beans, cowpeas and green grams). Capacity building of 100 (scouts, farmers and county government staff) on desert locust control in Saku and Laisamis. • Welthungerhilfe supported 500 households in Moyale, Laisamis and Saku Sub-Counties with cash transfer of Kshs. 5,000 per household as part of COVID-19 recovery initiative. Provided cash voucher assistance (CVA)-small animal breeding in Laisamis and Turbi targeting 300 households with vouchers worth Kshs. 6,000 per household. Cash for work to 240 casuals in Laisamis, Saku and Moyale at Kshs. 1,000 per casual for 5 days. • World Vision Kenya is planning to reseed 40 acres of grassland in Laisamis. Excavated 3 farm ponds of approximately 300m3 capacity to harvest rain water and help communities cope in Laisamis. • World Vision Kenya supported 347 households with Kshs 3000 cash transfer in March, 80 handwashing stations supplied to 25 schools, intends to support 7 health facilities with PPE in next two weeks and supported locational AACs and faith leaders on child protection sensitization during this school holiday season in Golbo AP. • World Vision Kenya supported 300 vulnerable households at Kshs. 3,000 one off cash transfer, 5,500 re-usable masks for all schools from ECDE, Primary and Secondary schools, 30 by 20 Litre jerrican of liquid soap to be issued to schools, 40 hand wash stations

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distributed to schools and 26 thermo-guns to be distributed to schools and health facilities in Loiyangalani AP. • P & G distributed PUR and conducted hygiene promotion at household Level, reaching 929 males and 962 females in Karare, Sololo Makutano, Funan Idha, Elle Bor and Elle Dimtu. • Kenya RAPID (In Partnership with County Government and SBC) constructed 2 steel tanks of 50,000 litres capacity in Kamboi and Kubi Qallo each serving 10 water bowsers in a day i.e. 20 water bowsers with a capacity of 200,000 litres. • DL–DFHUK supported community awareness Via Radio Talk shows and Radio Spots - Jangwani and Ibse FH. • Global Funds in partnership with Kenya Red Cross supported monthly Home and community based care by CHVs to PLHIVs--75 CHVs visited 1505 PLHIVs. Men2men sensitizations on SGBV, HIV and COVID-19 awareness in the community--reached 253 men and 55 females. Conducted 5 county and sub-county advocacy and data review forums engaging 121 partners and stakeholders. Supported Marsabit County and NACC to develop Marsabit AIDS Implementation Plan (CAIP) 2021-2025 and facilitated two support groups (25M and 73F). • Child Sponsorship (CSP)-FH Private Funds supported SHGS in Karare, Jaldesa, Kargi, North Horr and Kalacha. CLTS triggering was done in Minchominyi and Lorora village where 103 HH and 43(30F, 13M) people were reached. Conservation agriculture training done in Karare, 29(12F, 17M) people participated. Supported School Fees Payments for 67 pupils in Lowlands (North Horr and Laisamis Sub County) and 54 in Mountain Cluster (Saku Sub-county) to tune of Kshs. 1,040,055. • ERIKS Children Projects in partnership with ERIKSJALPHEN handed over two completed School Administration Blocks -One for Manyatta Daaba Primary -Saku and one for Qicha Pry –Sololo, two double door latrines constructed for Kubi Qallo Primary and water trucking for Segel (20,000 Litres) and Jaldesa Primary (10,000 litres).

7.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS. • With the expected cessation of the long rains in the month of May, the 3-months vegetation condition index will reduce but remain in the moderate vegetation deficit band. Sub-counties forecasted vegetation condition index indicates Laisamis and North Horr Sub-counties will remain in the moderate vegetation deficit category while Saku Sub-county will shift from the normal vegetation greenness band in April to moderate vegetation deficit category in May. Moyale Sub-county will remain in the normal vegetation greenness band due to the spill over effect of the near average rains received. • Forecasted soil moisture that indicates a likelihood deterioration across the county in the MAM season due to high land surface temperature and depressed rains received. • Pasture condition is generally fair-poor and with expected cessation of the long rains in the month of May, available pasture is expected to last for the next one and half months in the pastoral zone of Laisamis and North Horr Sub-counties while 3 months in the agro-pastoral areas of Moyale and Saku Sub-counties. • A paltry 30-40 percent of all surface water sources are partially recharged and with likely cessation of the long rains and increased land surface temperature, recharge levels of sub- surface water sources are likely to dip across the livelihood zones.

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• Milk production and consumption are below the long term average attributed to mass livestock migration, failure of the long rains in April and expected to follow similar trend for the next 2-3 months due to consecutive failure of two seasons. • The current area under crop cultivation is below the long term average attributable below normal long rains in the agro-pastoral areas of Saku Sub-county and Moyale (near average rains) which might not sustain the rainfed crops to physiological maturity. • With expected gradual increase and decline in maize and goats’ prices respectively, terms of trade are likely to deteriorate further in the next one month. Volatile inter-market trading margins between the major livestock markets underscore the importance of improving market integration especially in the pastoral livelihood zone. • SFP and OTP New Admissions exhibits a steady decline, however the caseloads are still high possibly attributed to a surge in morbidity cases and might increase due to weakened demand in the livestock market and an all-time low milk consumption at household level.

8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS • Immediate food assistance to the most vulnerable populace in Marsabit County • Provision of emergency health services, treatment of acute malnutrition, upscale access to life saving nutrition services IMAM and blanket supplementary feeding programme. • Up-scaling of various safety nets programmes across the County • Enhanced water trucking to address the immediate water needs for both human and livestock in the water scarce areas. • Repair and rehabilitation of strategic boreholes, provision of fuel subsidy, servicing of gensets and capacity building of the borehole rapid response team. • Stock piling of vaccines, strategic vaccination and enhanced livestock disease surveillance. • Ecto and endo parasite control-deworming + vector control activity. • Linking herders with feed manufacturers and suppliers to increase access to livestock inputs such as feeds and supplements. • Provision of livestock feeds, activation of satellite livestock markets and commercial destocking to salvage pastoralists against imminent losses.

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