Lebanese Elections: Summary of Regional and Coalition Voting Preferences

Survey Summary: A comprehensive assessment process, gathering election data from voters all over Lebanon, has been active in Lebanon since May 1. In this latest survey update, we present data drawn from all four of the assessments that have taken place so far. In particular, in this survey we present trend data regarding the shift in electoral preferences over time. Data was gathered from up to 10,000 survey respondents on: May 1, May 12, May 18, and May 25.

Data Assessment: Developing support for March 8 (M8) and March 14 (M14) The most recent round of data collection has allowed us to track data coalitions over time: trends over time. Below we present a snapshot of voter preferences as 90 M14 they have developed as elections approach. 80 M8 M14 70 M8 M14 M14 M14 M8 Two trends seem apparent: 60 M8 1) That the number of undecided voters appears to be 50 M8 M8 decreasing. Naturally, as Election Day approaches, the % of 40 M14 30 voters who have made up their minds goes up; and 20 2) A moderate trend in favor of the March 14 coalition appears 10 to have opened up. 0 1-May May 12 May 12 18-May 25-May (scenario 1) (scenario 2)

Survey Date • Our data consistently shows that up to 50% of Lebanese voters will be traveling on Election Day to vote in their home districts.

May 1 Therefore, ease of movement and perceived security will be May 18 May 25 critical to ensuring voter turnout.

Expected number of parliament 1) (scenario May 12 2) (scenario May 12 • In the pages that follow, we present, first, an overview of seats for each coalition: regional political sympathies, and then a detailed summary of March 8 66 68 46 56 60 regional voter preferences. March 14 62 60 82 62 68

Lebanese Elections : Summary of Regional and Coalition Preferences : June 1, 2009 : Page 1 of 7

Confirmed (difference Probable (difference Lebanese Elections: Regional Summary between coalitions is > between coalitions is Grand Total 5%) between 0.1‐5%) Estimate Surveyed Number M8 M14 Mohafaza Daera, Kadaa # of Seats M8 M14 M8 M14 Total Total Akkar 170 7 0 7 0 0 0 7 Dennieh 210 3 0 3 0 0 0 3 Bchareh 42 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 North Tripoli 560 8 0 8 0 0 0 8 Zghorta 320 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 Koura 280 3 2 1 0 0 2 1 Batroun 423 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 Byblos 211 3 2 0 1 0 3 0 Kesserwan 388 5 2 0 2 1 4 1 Mount Metn 621 8 3 1 2 2 5 3 Lebanon Baabda 487 6 4 0 1 1 5 1 Aley 220 5 1 3 0 1 1 4 Chouf 120 8 0 8 0 0 0 8 Beirut 1 (Achrafieh) 677 5 0 1 1 3 1 4 Beirut Beirut 2 (Bachoura) 62 4 2 2 0 0 2 2 Beirut 3 (Ras Beirut) 93 10 0 10 0 0 0 10 Sidon 462 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 Bint Jbeil 25 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 Tyre 62 4 4 0 0 0 4 0 South Zahrani 39 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 Hasbaya and Marjeioun 310 5 5 0 0 0 5 0 Nabatieh 142 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 Jezzine 219 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 Baalbeck 126 10 10 0 0 0 10 0 Bekaa Zahle 729 7 1 3 1 2 2 5 Bekaa West and Rachayya 188 6 0 5 0 1 0 6 Total: 7186 128 51 57 9 11 60 68 Grand Total 60 68 Lebanese Elections : Summary of Regional and Coalition Preferences : June 1, 2009 : Page 2 of 7 Lebanese Elections: Detailed Regional Breakdown: Political Affiliation List Party # of Mouhafaza Daera,Kada Seats Sect March 14 Ind. March 8

Alawi Khodr Mounif Habib Future Movement

Sunni Khaled Mohammad Daher Future Movement

Sunni Mouhin Mohammad Tarek Al Moraabi Future Movement

Akkar 7 Sunni Khaled Abbas Zahraman Future Movement

Roman Orthodox Nidal Gergeh Tohmeh Future Movement

Roman Orthodox Riad Nkoula Rahhal Future Movement

Maronite Hadi Fawzi Hbeiche Future Movement

Sunni Kassem Ali Abdel Aziz Future Movement

Dennieh 3 Sunni Ahmad Chawki Mohammad Khodr Al Fatfat Future Movement

Sunni Hachem Mohammad Moustafa Alameddine Future Movement

Maronite Elie Karam Keyrouz Lebanese Forces Bchareh 2 Maronite Strida Elias Towk Lebanese Forces

Sunni Mohammad Abdellatif Kabbara Tripoli Solidarity

Sunni Mohammad Najib Aazmy Mikaty Tripoli Solidarity Tripoli Bloc

Sunni Mohammad Ahmad Al Safadi Tripoli Solidarity

North Sunni Mosbah Ahdab *** Independent Tripoli 8 Sunni Samir Adnan El Jesr Tripoli Solidarity Future Movement

Alawi Bader Kamel Mohammad Wanous Tripoli Solidarity

Maronite Samer Georges Saadeh Tripoli Solidarity

Roman Orthodox Robert Maurice Fadel Tripoli Solidarity

Maronite Salim Bek Youssef Bek Karam

Zghorta 3 Maronite Estfen Boutros Al Doueyhi

Maronite Sleiman Antoine Frangieh Marada

Roman Orthodox Farid Nabil Makari Future Movement

Koura 3 Roman Orthodox Salim Abdallah Saadeh

Roman Orthodox Fayez Michel Ghossn Free Patriotic Maronite Gebran Gergy Bassil C & R Bloc Movement Batroun 2

Maronite Boutros Joseph El Koury Harb Lebanese Elections : Summary of Regional and Coalition Preferences : June 1, 2009 : Page 3 of 7 Lebanese Elections: Detailed Regional Breakdown: Political Affiliation List Party Free Patriotic Chiite Abbas Hussein Hachem C & R Bloc Movement

Byblos 3 Maronite Walid Najib El Khoury C & R Bloc Free Patriotic Maronite Simon Farid Abi Ramia C & R Bloc Movement Maronite Mansour Fouad Ghanem El Bon

Maronite Naamatallah Fares Abi Nasr C & R Bloc

Kesserwan 5 Maronite Farid Elias El Khazen C & R Bloc Free Patriotic Maronite Michel Naim Aoun C & R Bloc Movement

Maronite Gilberte Maurice Zouein C & R Bloc Free Patriotic Maronite Ibrahim Youssef Kenaan C & R Bloc Movement

Maronite Sami Amine Gemmayel

Maronite Salim Emile Salhab C & R Bloc

Metn 8 Maronite Sarkis Elias Sarkis Roman Orthodox Michel Elias El Murr

Roman Orthodox Ghassan Emile Mkheiber C & R Bloc Roman Catholic Edgar Fouad Maalouf C & R Bloc Lebanon

Armenian Orthodox Hagop Ohannes Pakradounian Armenian MPs' Coalition Tashnaq

Maronite Edmond Mkhael Gharios Free Patriotic Maronite Hekmat Faraj Dib C & R Bloc Movement Mount Free Patriotic Baabda 6 Maronite Alain Joseph Aoun C & R Bloc Movement Chiite Bilal Assad Farhat C & R Bloc

Chiite Ali Fadel Ammar Hezbollah

Druze Fadi Najib Al Aawar C & R Bloc

Maronite Henry Pierre Helou Democratic meeting Bloc Maronite Fouad Raji Al Saad Democratic meeting Bloc Progressive Socialist Aley 5 Druze Akram Shheyyeb Democratic meeting Bloc Party Roman Orthodox Fadi Elias El Habr Phalanges Lebanese Democratic Druze Al Amir Talal Majid Arslan Party Progressive Socialist Chouf 8 Druze Walid kamal Jomblat Democratic meeting Bloc Party Progressive Socialist Druze Marwan Mohammad Hemadeh Democratic meeting Bloc Party Lebanese Elections : Summary of Regional and Coalition Preferences : June 1, 2009 : Page 4 of 7 Lebanese Elections: Detailed Regional Breakdown: Political Affiliation List Party Roman Catholic Nehmeh Youssef Tohmeh Democratic meeting Bloc

Sunni Mohammad Kassem Rachid El Hajjar Democratic meeting Bloc

Sunni Aalaeddine Khodr Tarwa Democratic meeting Bloc Maronite Georges Jamil Aadwen Lebanese Forces

Maronite Elie Michel Aoun Kotlat Al Lika El Dimokraty

Maronite Michel Dory Kamil Chamoun Ahrar

Roman Orthodox Nayla Gebran Tueyni

Maronite Massoud Joseph El Ashkar C & R Bloc

Beirut 1 5 Roman Catholic Michel Pierre Pharaon

Armenian Orthodox Jean Loutfig Oghassapian Future Movement Bloc

Armenian Catholic Serge Berdj Tour Sarkissian Future Movement Bloc

Sunni Nouhad Saleh El Machnouk Future Movement Bloc Future Movement

Chiite Hani Hassan Kobeissy ? Amal Beirut 2 4 Armenian Orthodox Arthur Garabed Nazarian Armenian MPs Coalition

Armenian Orthodox Sebouh Ohannes Kalpakian Future Movement Bloc Hunchag

Sunni Saad El Din Rafic El Hariri Future Movement Bloc Future Movement

Beirut Sunni Aammar Oumar El Houry Future Movement Bloc Future Movement

Sunni Tammam Saeb Bek Salam

Sunni Imad Midhat El Hout

Sunni Mouhammad Jamil Kabbani Future Movement Bloc Future Movement Beirut 3 10 Chiite Ghazy Ali Youssef

Roman Orthodox Aatef Mourched Saliba Majdalani Future Movement Bloc Future Movement Progressive Socialist Druze Ghazy Hani Al Aridi Party

Protestant Basem Ramzi Al Shab Future Movement Bloc

Minorities Nabil Moussa De Freige Future Movement Bloc Sunni Bahiya Bahaeddine Al Hariri Future Movement Bloc Sidon 2

Sunni Fouad Abd El Basset Al Saniora Future Movement Bloc Future Movement The Liberation and Chiite Ali Ahmad Bazi Development Bloc Loyalty to the Resistance

South Bint Jbeil 3 Chiite Hassan Nizam El Din Fadlallah Bloc The Liberation and Chiite Ayyoub Fahed Hmeyyed Development Bloc Lebanese Elections : Summary of Regional and Coalition Preferences : June 1, 2009 : Page 5 of 7 Lebanese Elections: Detailed Regional Breakdown: Political Affiliation List Party The Liberation and Chiite Ali Youssek Khreys Development Bloc The Liberation and Chiite Abdel Majid Ali Saleh Development Bloc Tyre 4 Mouhamad Abd El Motleb Loyalty to the Resistance Chiite Fneiche Bloc Loyalty to the Resistance Chiite Nawwaf Mahmoud El Moussawi Bloc The Liberation and Chiite Ali Adel Osseyran Development Bloc The Liberation and Zahrani 3 Chiite Nabih Mostafa Berri Development Bloc Amal Movement The Liberation and Roman Catholic Michel Hanna Moussa Development Bloc The Liberation and Chiite Ali Hassan Khalil Development Bloc Loyalty to the Resistance Chiite Ali Rachid Fayyad Bloc Hasbaya and 5 Marjayoun Sunni Kassem Omar Hachem Baath Baath Roman Orthodox Assaad Halim Harden SSNP SSNP The Liberation and Druze Anwar Mohammad El Khalil Development Bloc The Liberation and Chiite Yassine Kamel Jaber Development Bloc Loyalty to the Resistance Nabatieh 3 Chiite Mohammad Youssef Raad Bloc The Liberation and Chiite Abdellatif Bek Yousef El Zein Development Bloc

Maronite Ziad Michel Asswad C & R Block

Jezzine 3 Maronite Issam Nkoula Sawaya C & R Block

Roman Catholic Michel Tanios El Helo C & R Block Loyalty to the Resistance Baalbeck 10 Chiite Ali Hassan El Mekdad Bloc Loyalty to the Resistance Chiite Hussein Ali Al Hajj Hassan Bloc Loyalty to the Resistance Chiite Hussein Ali Al Moussawi Bloc Loyalty to the Resistance Chiite Ghazi Mohammd Zoeiyer Bloc Loyalty to the Resistance

Bekaa Chiite Aassem Mohammad Kanso Bloc Loyalty to the Resistance Chiite Nawwar Mohammad El Sahili Bloc Loyalty to the Resistance Sunni Kamel Mohammad El Rifai Bloc

Sunni Al Walid Mohammad Sakria Loyalty to the Resistance Lebanese Elections : Summary of Regional and Coalition Preferences : June 1, 2009 : Page 6 of 7 Lebanese Elections: Detailed Regional Breakdown: Political Affiliation List Party Bloc

Loyalty to the Resistance Maronite Emile Georges Rahme Bloc

Roman Catholic Marwan Fares Fares SSNP

Roman Catholic Nicolas Michel Fattoush Zahle Bil Aleb

Roman Catholic Elias Joseph Skaf Popular Block

Maronite Elie Michel Marouni Zahle Bil Aleb Zahle 7 Roman Orthodox Josef Anis Maalouf Zahle Bil Aleb

Sunni Assem Fayez Aaraji Zahle Bil Aleb

Chiite Oqab Oqab Sakr Zahle Bil Aleb

Armenian Orthodox Georges Kassarji Popular Bloc Dignity of Bekaa West and Sunni Jamal Salim Jarrah Rachayya Future Movement Dignity of Bekaa West and Sunni Ziad Nazem El Kadiri Rachayya Dignity of Bekaa West and Progressive Socialist Bekaa West Druze Wael Wahbi Abou Faour Rachayya Party 6 and Rachayya Dignity of Bekaa West and Chiite Amin Mohammad Wehbeh Rachayya Dignity of Bekaa West and Maronite Robert Eskandar Ghanem Rachayya Dignity of Bekaa West and Roman Orthodox Antoine Nkoula Saad Rachayya Total number of 128 TOTAL SEATS 68 0 60 seats:

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