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Assets Radar Troubled Assets Radar Troubled Assets Radar JANUARY 6,4, 2010 Mapping US Distress c o n t e n t s Office The level of distress in commercial property grew Industrial steeply in November and was continuing to mount Retail as December drew to a close. A total of $13.4b in Overview . 1 Apartment properties tumbled into default, foreclosure or Distressed Assets . .2 Hotel bankruptcy, in November, and early data show that Dev Site another $11.2b has already been added in Decem- Distress by Niche & Market . .3 Other ber. That brings the total of outstanding distress Data Market Table . 4 to $170.6b, including just $20.6b in assets claimed by lenders as REO. In contrast, only an additional Troubled & REO Properties . .5-10 $20.1b in distressed situations have been resolved Methodology . 11 to date. Resolutions in the third and fourth quarter have been remarkably consistent on a monthly ba- Details on each asset are available with a sis, but have yet to exceed $2b in any single month subscription to RCA’s Troubled Asset Search this cycle, though that milestone is on the horizon. tool. Contact [email protected] for November and December’s additions to dis- more information. tress extend a spike that began in October and Bubbles are sized to relative could make the fourth quarter the second busiest distress values. of 2009 for new distress. ©2010 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision. http://www.rcanalytics.com 1 Troubled Assets Radar United States JANUARY 6, 2010 Distress Levels Climb Through November Both the offi ce and apartment markets were hit hard total outstanding distress in November, with $5.7b in offi ce and $4.7b in apart- billion ments falling into distress. One investment manager, $200 Tishman Speyer Properties, contributed major assets 180 in both sectors with its capitulation on $3b in debt for Stuyvesant Town-Peter Cooper Village in Manhattan 160 Resolved Lender REO as well as on a six-asset, $1.7b offi ce portfolio in Chi- 140 cago of former EOP assets acquired from Blackstone. New Trouble The retail property sector remains by far the 120 most deeply affected by distress, at nearly $40b, and 100 the continuing General Growth overhang weighs 80 heaviest on the regional mall subtype. Among retail niches, single-tenant and urban stores have been 60 the least affected. 40 For offi ce properties, with $31.8b in troubled assets, the problems are relatively evenly distributed between 20 CBD and suburban assets; distress is slightly larger in 0 CBD both in dollar volume and as a share of market. monthly changes to distress Again, single-tenant assets as well as the medical-offi ce $25 billion niche are largely unaffected. Distress in the industrial sector remains remark- 20 ably marginal at just $5.1b. Flex properties have been more affected by trouble than warehouse, but dis- 15 tress as a share of market volume is low across all industrial niches and subtypes. 10 In the hotel sector, distress is profound among casinos as a share of market, and is also visible in overall 5 combined hotel and casino distress of $32.7b; two-thirds of which is in hotels only. While distressed volume for 0 full-service properties is twice that of limited-service as- 2008 2009 sets, the scale of distress among limited-service hotels, -5 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D still pumped up by Extended Stay’s bankruptcy, is more than double the level for full-service assets. For apartments, with total distress of $30.8b, dis- The three most heavily distressed markets in the tressed volume is virtually even for garden apartments US remain Las Vegas, Detroit and Miami, with the and mid/high-rise assets. But the share of distress aggregated tertiary markets of the Western region a scaled to market size remains much higher in the strong fourth in the level of distress scaled to market latter subtype. In apartment niches such as student size. Aggregations of other tertiary markets in all US and senior housing, the volume of distress is very low regions bear a hefty burden of distress, while sec- Regional TAR reports for and the percentage of distress against market size ondary markets such as Cincinnati, San Antonio and the following 23 markets: remains in the mid single digits. Pittsburgh are also deeply troubled. The only other Atlanta; Broward; Central California; Not surprisingly, development sites refl ect a con- primary market in the top 15 most distressed markets Chicago; Dallas; DC Metro; Detroit; tinuing level of distress as investors and developers are is Houston, at No. 11. With its high overall volume, East Bay; Houston; Inland Empire; prevented by market circumstances from creating the Manhattan’s level of distress is higher than that in Los Angeles; Las Vegas; Manhattan; cash-fl owing assets they may have envisioned when any other gateway market, including Los Angeles, San Miami; NYC Boroughs & Long Island; acquiring land. More than $11b of development sites Francisco, Chicago or Boston. San Jose, Seattle and Orange County, CA; Orlando; have fallen into distress or been reclaimed by lenders. San Diego remain relatively free of troubled situations. Palm Beach; Phoenix; Sacramento; San Diego; San Francisco; Tampa For other TAR reports visit: http://www.rcanalytics.com ©2010 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision. http://www.rcanalytics.com 2 Troubled Assets Radar United States JANUARY 6, 2010 united states overview Distress by Niche and Market distress by niche all distress assets The graphs to the right both illus- in $ billions Volume Scaled to Market Activity trate the estimated dollar value of Volume Scaled to Size the distressed situations (bars) as retail Las Vegas Detroit Retail Total $39.6B well as the relative size of the dis- Miami tress compared to the size of each Strip Tertiary West market (diamonds). Market activ- Cincinnati Regional Mall Hartford ity is based on the total transac- Palm Beach Anchored Strip tion volume in each market from San Antonio Tertiary Northeast the past four years. Grocery Anchored Tertiary Mid-Atlantic Unanchored Strip Houston Cleveland Power/Life Center Pittsburgh Single Tenant Tertiary Southeast Central CA Urban/Store Front Tertiary Southwest Phoenix office Tertiary Midwest Office Total $31.8B Inland Empire Jacksonville Suburban Broward CBD NYC Boros + L.I. Denver Single Tenant Richmond/Norfolk Orlando Medical Office Stamford industrial Minneapolis Columbus Industrial Total $5.1B No NJ Dallas Warehouse Orange Co Flex Manhattan Indianapolis Single Tenant Los Angeles St Louis hotel Sacramento Hotel Total $22.9B Memphis Chicago Casino Total Boston Nashville Full-Service East Bay Limited Service Salt Lake City Tampa apartment Philadelphia San Francisco Apartment Total $30.8B Atlanta Garden DC Metro Raleigh/Durham Mid/Highrise Westchester Student Housing Kansas City Austin Senior Independent Charlotte Portland Low Income/Section 8 San Diego Seattle dev site San Jose Commercial Dev Site $11.5B ©2010 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision. http://www.rcanalytics.com 3 Troubled Assets Radar United States JANUARY 6, 2010 Distress by Current Known Distress Property Type Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel Development Other Total # # # # # # # # $ Mil. Prop $ Mil. Prop $ Mil. Prop $ Mil. Prop $ Mil. Prop $ Mil. Prop $ Mil. Prop $ Mil. Prop Baltimore $159.6 10 $30.3 3 $1,184.6 15 $311.9 8 $311.8 18 $160.8 6 $2,159.0 60 Mid-Atlantic DC 925.8 14 21.6 1 17.3 2 419.5 11 225.0 2 43.0 2 1,652.2 32 DC MD burbs 135.7 6 112.6 10 210.7 9 534.6 17 238.7 13 8.6 1 1,241.0 56 DC VA burbs 465.6 14 4.9 1 254.1 4 469.7 12 217.7 20 84.3 3 37.2 1 1,533.4 55 Philadelphia 279.8 14 75.5 4 325.1 18 333.0 9 129.3 14 67.7 2 1,210.4 61 Pittsburgh 130.8 8 6.4 1 129.2 9 31.0 4 77.7 8 54.0 3 429.1 33 So NJ 1.1 1 218.3 7 45.1 1 1,389.7 9 24.0 1 1,678.2 19 All Others 186.7 14 3.6 2 1,121.7 51 264.7 28 560.4 29 213.1 18 14.3 4 2,364.5 146 Mid-Atlantic $2,285.1 81 $254.9 22 $3,461.0 115 $2,409.4 90 $3,150.3 113 $655.4 36 $51.5 5 $12,267.7 462 Chicago 1,771.9 48 231.4 42 1,249.6 73 852.9 89 906.0 49 1,130.2 60 251.6 20 6,393.6 381 Midwest Cincinnati 60.8 5 26.0 4 617.8 21 61.3 4 199.8 14 128.8 3 1,094.4 51 Cleveland 74.1 8 6.9 1 547.1 23 19.5 2 107.2 15 11.1 1 0.9 1 766.8 51 Columbus 71.4 12 171.0 16 90.8 10 76.5 12 111.1 16 16.8 2 3.7 1 541.2 69 Detroit 817.4 24 146.8 22 749.3 35 175.9 17 1,024.0 32 39.2 2 2,952.5 132 Indianapolis 187.3 8 6.8 1 165.4 10 100.9 13 58.9 8 124.9 8 644.2 48 Kansas City 71.3 8 106.5 7 2.8 1 209.6 19 57.6 6 447.9 41 Milwaukee 67.5 6 84.1 9 22.4 5 29.8 3 125.0 8 328.7 31 Minneapolis 172.6 9 17.8 5 796.3 17 19.0 2 187.4 13 128.9 11 16.9 3 1,338.9 60 St Louis 98.7 7 22.7 3 321.1 15 61.3 8 213.6 15 400.0 1 2.2 1 1,119.6 50 All Others 332.1 39 79.1 7 1,719.1 101 298.0 31 487.8 69 289.6 24 103.6 13 3,309.4 284 Midwest $3,725.2 174 $708.4 101 $6,446.9 321 $1,690.6 184 $3,535.2 253 $2,412.8 124 $418.0 41 $18,937.1 1,198 Boston 2,284.0 18 179.4 19 550.5 20 363.9 13 278.9 31 520.3 8 21.0 2 4,198.0 111 Northeast Hartford 47.5 2 4.7 2 315.6 11 160.0 28 18.0 4 29.5 2 575.4 49 Long Island 249.4 6 28.0 3 391.3 18 29.2 4 43.5 3 7.5 1 748.8 35 Manhattan 4,649.4 43 125.8 3 138.5 9 5,719.4 94 1,136.5 10 727.7 22 57.6 2 12,555.0 183 No NJ 389.8 13 91.4 7 996.0 19 629.5 20 243.6 19 228.1 4 3.5 1 2,581.9 83 NYC Boroughs 421.1 5 232.4 20 558.6 14 372.1 51 86.4 4 217.6 25 10.2 1 1,898.3
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