’s South-North Water Transfer Project and Its Impacts on Economic and Social Development

Zhu, Ruixiang

Vice President, Management Bureau for South-North Water Transfer Planning and Design, Ministry of Water Resources

I Water shortage in North China and its impacts

Water resources are unevenly distributed in China with great differences from south to north. Water resources are rich in the south while insufficient in the north, especially in the Huang-Huai-Hai (, , and ) Plain.

Water is also unevenly distributed in space:

Northern part of China: Water resources: 19% population: 47% Cultivated land: 64% GDP: 45%

Southern part of China: Water resources: 81% population: 53% Cultivated land: 35% GDP: 55%

In order to sustain economic and social development, water conservation is greatly emphasized, at the same time various water sources are developed in northern part of China due to the scarcity of water resources. In the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the degree of water resources exploitation has exceeded 60%, it even reaches to 90% in the Hai River Basin. Not only surface water is extensively developed, but also groundwater resources are largely exploited in area. In 1997 groundwater utilization takes 38.7% of the total water supply in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, among which 61% in the Hai River Basin.

Over-exploitation of surface water has caused withering of some rivers and , low capacity of flood discharge of river channels, decrease of flow entering into the sea, increasing siltation of river estuaries and increasingly water disputes between regions, cities or townships. In 1990’s, dry-up of the Yellow River occurred very often. In 1997 the dry-up period of the Yellow River reached to 226 days. The middle and lower reaches of some in the Hai River Basin tend to be dried all year round. The Middle reaches of the Huai River also experienced an unusual dry-up in the history. The accumulated over exploitation of groundwater resources has reached to 6 billion m3. In the Hai River Plain, shallow aquifer has been over-exploited in the areas along the Jingguang Railway. Part of the aquifer in and Province are nearly dried up, and in most of the areas, depth of groundwater has dropped from 2-3m to 10-31m. Southeast part of the Hai River Plain suffers from severe shortage of , as most of the shallow aquifer contain salty or slightly salty water and can only dig high-fluorite deep groundwater that is difficult for recharge. After groundwater exploitation, the depth of groundwater at the sinking core area has been drowned down at a speed of 3-5 meters each year. Till 1998, the area with accumulated sinking depth of more than 300 mm reached to 18,200 km2 in the Hebei Plain, and the area with an accumulated sinking depth of more than 1.5 m reached to 133 km2 in area.

Water shortage problem in North China poses a big threat to the sustainable development of our society. Firstly, it becomes an obstacle for the enhancement of people’ s living standard as well as construction and development of big water-consuming industrial enterprise. Secondly, it causes further worsening of ecological environment and associated with many environmental problems of land sinking, seawater intrusion and return flow of seawater. Thirdly, water shortage restricts agricultural development in North China and threatens food safety of our country. Fourthly, national economic loss is big due to water shortage. National economy becomes more and more relied on water resources for further development along with social and economic development. Water crisis in North China will certainly results in big loss of the national economy, which shall be worsened together with even more serious water crisis.

II South-North Water Transfer Project

Yangtze River is the longest river in China with abundant water resources. The mean annual runoff is about 960 billion m3. The runoff in the extreme dry year is 760 m3. Above 94% of runoff of the River enters into the sea every year. It is feasible to transfer some of the water from the Yangtze River to alleviate water shortage in the northern part of China.

After about 50 years’ reconnaissance, planning and study as well as assessment of more than 50 design options, three water diversion areas are planed in the lower, middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River (also called Changjiang River) respectively, and then forms three water diversion routes of east, middle and west, i.e. the current South-North Water Transfer Project.

1. East Route

East Route will base on an existing North Water Transfer Project. Water will be pumped from the pumping stations near in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, through the Jing-Hang and its parallel river channels as the main or branch canals to the . The canals shall link the storage reservoirs of Hongze , , and , and crosses the Yellow River through tunnels to the newly-built Weilin Canal to Weiyun Canal and Nanyun Canal and finally reach to Tianjing. Nearly 90% of the water transfer canals are existing river channels or lakes.

Besides, water shall be diverted from the Dongping Lake to the cities of , , and in Shangdong Peninsula.

The highest place in the East Route Scheme is the Dongping Lake where is about 40 meters higher than the water level of the Yangtze River. Thus 75 pumping stations in 13 cascades are planed to build with a total lift of around 65 meters. Water shall flow by gravity to Tianjin after it crosses the Yellow River.

Since many existing river channels and lakes are used by the East Route Scheme and water quality of these rivers and lakes are not up to the standard, water pollution control tends to be very important. It is planned to build 135 sewage treatment plants, 33 pollution control or diversion works and make industrial structure adjustment for 38 plants, initiate 150 industrial pollution control projects and 13 watershed pollution control projects in the project area.

The scope of water supply of the East Route Scheme covers the eastern part of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Peninsula. The nearest target of water supply is to mainly satisfy domestic and industrial water needs and then water needs of irrigation, navigation and environment. It shall be able to transfer the water of 14.8 billion m3/yr (including the capacity of the existing North Jiangsu Water Transfer Project).

The construction of the scheme is divided into three stages. The first stage is to complete water supply to Shandong and Jiangsu provinces. The planned annual water diversion is 8.9 billion m3/yr (500m3/s), excluding the capacity of the existing project, the newly-increased water supply is 3.9 billion m3/yr. The other element of the project is to complete pollution control and pollution intercept and discharge projects so as to ensure that water quality meet class-III of national surface water standard.

2. Middle Route

Water shall be diverted from the Taocha Gate of the Reservoir, through the Fangchengyakou divide of the Yangtze River and the Huai River, the Tangbai River Basin and along the western edge of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, to cross the Yellow River through tunnels dug at the Gupazui in the west of City and along the west line of the Jing-Guang Railway to Beijing and Tianjing by gravity. The Tianjing Main Canal starts from the Xushui County to Tianjing.

Water supply areas of the Middle Route Scheme are Tangbai River basin, upper and middle reaches of the Huai River and west plain of the Hai River basin, including provinces or municipalities of , , Hebei, Beijing and Tianjing. The main objective of the scheme is to provide water for more than 20 large or medium cities along the route, such as Beijing, Tianjing and etc. and also considers environmental and agricultural water demand. It shall be able to transfer the water of 13 billion m3/yr.

The construction of the scheme is divided into two phases. The first phase is to heighten the to a normal storage level of 170 m. The main canal from the Taocha Gate to Tuanchenghu in Beijing is 1267 km long and the main canal to Tianjing is 154 km. In the middle and lower reaches of the (down stream of Dangjiangkou reservoir), four sub-projects will be developed to minimize impacts of environment and social development to down stream area. The annual water diversion of the scheme is 9.5 billion m3/yr. Water pollution and soil erosion shall be controlled in the surrounding area of the and upper reaches of the Hanjiang River, so as to protect water quality of the reservoir.

3. West Route

West Route Scheme includes several dams built in the , and in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and tunnels across the Bayankela Mountains to upper reaches of Yellow river. It was planned in three stages. The first stage consists of 5 dams and 260 km tunnels, capable of transferring water of 4 km3/yr. The second stage will add another dam and 304 km tunnels (260km will be parallel with the first stage), capable of transferring another 5 km3/yr. The third stage will add one more dam and 508km tunnels (304km is parallel with the second stage), capable of transferring water of 8 km3/yr. The total water transfer would be of 17 km3/yr.

The objective of West Route is to solve water shortage in , Gansu, Ningxia, , Shaanxi and Provinces in the upstream and middle stream of the Yellow River and the Guanzhong Plain along the Weihe River. In combination with the Daliushu Multi-purpose Water Project on the mainstream of the Yellow River and other projects to be constructed, it can also supply water to the Hexi Corridor in Gansu close to the Yellow River Basin. If necessary, water can be added to the downstream of the Yellow River.

4. Current Progress

The General Program of The South to North Water Transfer Project was submitted to the State council in 2002 and was approved. It shall be constructed by three phases. The first phase includes the first stages of the East Route and the Middle Route. It was lunched at the end of 2002.

III Impact of South-North Water Transfer Project on Economic and Social Development

1. Macroscopic impact during its construction period

According to the estimation of investment multiplier from 1991-2000, the construction of the first phase of the project shall contribute 0.12 percentage at average to the GDP growth before 2010. After the completion of first phase, more investment will be involved for other phase, which will further promote the increase of GDP.

The project will improve local economic conditions and cerates more job opportunities, as well as increase incomes. It was estimated that 180,000 jobs will be created for the first phase of the project. As a result, it shall indirectly stimulate the growth of economy. The East Route scheme comes across four provinces or municipalities of Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei and Tianjin, where Jinghang Grand Canal and Jing-hu Railway are located. Industry and agriculture of this area are relatively well developed. These areas are densely populated. During the project construction, it will promote initiation of small markets and be favorable for small commodity production. The construction of Middle Route Scheme brings a rare opportunity for the economic development and environment improvement of the Dangjiangkou Reservoir area. The project plays an active role in adjusting economic layout, agricultural industry structure and infrastructure conditions. The improvement of production condition in the Danjiangkou Reservoir area will provide more employment by developing local service industry. In addition, the relocation of factories leaves a chance of adjustment of industrial structure and environment improvement. The West Route Scheme goes across six provinces or autonomous regions of Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi, and shall give impetus to the local industrial and agricultural development and improve local transportation conditions as well as economic and social development of the minority nationality regions.

However, inundation of land by water diversion shall bring negative influence to some areas or residents concerned. A principle is defined for making a reasonable compensation together with other support. By means of making industrial structure adjustment in the resettlement areas, the losses of land inundation due to project construction and removal of buildings should be reduced.

2. Macroscopic impacts after its completion

After the completion of the project, the three water transfer routes shall link four river basins of the Yangtze, Huai, Yellow and Hai, and form a new layout of “four horizontal and three vertical river channels for balancing water from south to north and regulating water from west to east”. Through water resources allocation to different regions, it is beneficial for a coordinated development of regional economy and strengthens the economic link among areas of water diversion, water transport and water receiving and drive the economic development of the backward areas by the developed areas.

In terms of water utilization, the present conflicts caused by competitive water users of agricultural, industrial, domestic and ecological shall be alleviated. Water demand of agriculture and ecologic system shall be met and over-exploitation of groundwater shall be controlled. Meanwhile recycled water from domestic water use will be increase after water diversion and can be used for agricultural purpose. The increased water for agricultural use shall cause changes of plantation pattern in these water shortage areas.

In terms of industrial structure layout, the development of big water consumers such as steel, chemical and construction materials are restricted by water shortage before water diversion. However, in the northern part of China, particularly northwest part, raw material are rich for developing heavy industries, After the completion of water diversion, it shall provide favorable conditions for realizing rational allocation of resources and increase the local production capacity.

Net water supply of the first phase (first stage of East and Middle routes ) shall reach to 3.5 billion m3 and 7.8 billion m3 by 2010. Without considering factors of technology advancement, it shall build up a GDP value totaling 322.2 billion (based on the price of 2000). Of cause, even more contribution shall be raised from water diversion to our economy if other factors are being considered, such as advancement of science and technology level, economic structure adjustment and big improvement of water utilization efficiency of industry and agriculture along with economic development.

3. Benefit to social development after water diversion

The implementation of East Route and Middle Route schemes shall quicken the economic development of provinces or municipalities of Jiangsu, Shandong, Beijing, Tianjin, Henan and Hebei and shall diversify its positive effect to the surrounding areas. After the implementation of West Route Scheme, water conditions shall be improved in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River and Guanzhong Plain in the Basin in six provinces or autonomous regions of Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi. It shall boost economic development of the Western Region and shortens the gap between eastern region and western region by stopping the flow of labor and capital from undeveloped to developed ones. Although diverted water is preferentially used by urban development, it still can improve agricultural and ecological water use. Domestic wastewater shall be treated and recycled for agricultural use. Together with other benefits of flood control, electricity generation and drainage, South-North Water diversion project will greatly promote local rural economic development.

Due to the increase of water supply, the expansion of industry is guaranteed. After 2010, about 21.15 million job opportunities shall be provided if diverted water of the first phase of East and Middle routes are fully utilized and water use efficiency is kept as the current level.

Water quality and water environment will greatly be improved after the increase of per capita water availability. In order to ensure water quality of the diverted water, input shall be built up for environment protection in water sources areas, water diversion route areas and for water quality improvement in the project area. After water diversion, water allocation to environmental usage shall be added, which shall alleviate soil erosion, land desertification and environment pollution in northwest region. More green land shall be built in northern and northwest parts of China. Green land created by landscape water use is good for people’ health and enhancing satisfaction to their lives.

The heightening of Danjiangkou Reservoir in the Middle Route shall enhance the flood control capacity of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjing River, from once in 20 years’ flood control standard to once in 100 years and benefit more than 70 million people. The pumping stations built in the East Route shall upgrade drainage capacity from once in no more than 3 years’ standard to once in 5 years, with an increase of drainage areas of 6800 km2.

There are many factors that affect or restrict the urban population, but water resources play a dominant role in this regard. After the implementation of water diversion, water bearing capacity of most cities shall be upgraded and provide a wide space for urbanization development by kick off the bottleneck of water restrain to economic growth and population increase. It is estimated that the project shall contribute an increase 0.3% urbanization rate on the basis of 8‰ annual population increase in average and 7-8% GDP annual increase in China.