wine grape production production inthefuture.production winegrapeto maximisehighquality that areactions available to producers and potential future management This information sheetlistscurrent Tasmanian winegrape producers? south’, what optionsare available to producers have theoptionto ‘move temperatures. While thesemainland as aresponse to recent warmer contracts and/orvineyards in mainland Australian are fruit securing Large commercial winemakersfrom climate changeadaptation options. aboutandassessing already thinking Tasmanian grape producers are variable inthefuture. suggest that climate willbeeven more yearsand driest onrecord. Scientists wet years, andsomeofthewarmest havefarmers experienced extremely the past decade,Over Tasmanian withclimate Dealing thismeanforTasmania’s does What wineindustry? to increase inthefuture. is highly likely thataverage minimum and maximum temperatures will continue In recent years, Tasmania hasexperienced someofthewarmest years onrecord. It Photo : Su zie G ay n o r Projected impact of climate change on

summary wine, particularly thoserequiring index. ahigherthermal wine, particularly Tasmanian producers willbeableto offer more of varieties location ofthesevineyards may change. ofcoolproduction climate winesinto thefuture, though the continueddiversity of the island is highly likely to support challenges to Tasmanian winegrape producers. The physical Projected climate and change presents both opportunities opportunities for growers for opportunities burst, ripening and harvesting. burst, ripening mainland, bud including earlier on the production Australian inwinegrape shifts reported Researchers have already Wine and grape production affect production inthe affect production following ways: projected increase intemperature could sensitive to temperature. Therefore the Wine grape isparticularly production .South may besimilarto theCoonawarra region of for innorthern wineproduction Tasmania hasshownModelling that by 2070,theclimate approximately 2.9°Cby 2100. across Tasmania are projected to increase by in thefuture. However,rainfall temperatures Tasmania indicate minimalchangeinannual Projections from Climate Futures for temperaturechanging • • • • wine grape production grown within aregion. ofgrapechanging thesuitability varieties produced, ofgrapeschanging yieldandquality aroma profiles ofthewines, of theseason,affectingflavour and grapesripening awarmerpart during dates for current varieties, andharvest budburst, ripening earlier thegrowingshortening season,including 1 wine grape production crop development. higher rainfall this time mayduring promote fungal diseases at vulnerable times of east innorth Tasmania.summer andautumn,particularly Increasedtemperature and frosts. Climate Futures for Tasmania modellingindicates anincrease inrainfall during there willbeanincreased likelihoodthat frost-sensitive plant tissueisexposed to spring interpretation. warmerwinters conditions spring leadto If andearly budburst earlier frost damageinthefuture, suchevents are complex phenomenarequiring cautious While climate ofincreased projections temperatures might suggestreduced cold and for winegrape production. temperature increases, in areas that are currently climatically marginal to unsuitable for winegrowingopportunities (Tasmanian cool climate winesorothervarieties),as oftheircurrent andquality premiumstyle . However, there may be considerable makers needto beaware warmertemperature ofthepotential impact might have on of character Tasmanian cool climate winesmay beaffected into thefuture andwine of truecool‑ regionsfor of certain Tasmania. Tasmania’s current advantage liesintheproduction Changes inBEGDD(Figure ofwinegrape on the suitability varieties 2)may impact ofchanging temperature onwinegrapeEffects production 2071‑2100 of50%70%(Figure 2). BEGDD suggestthat there may besubstantial increases inBEGDDfrom 1961-1990to noir grapes require fewer BEGDDthanshiraz sauvignon orcabernet grapes. Trends in Requirements between different for BEGDDvary of varieties grapes. For example pinot were calculated to for April, October theperiod for sixwineregions in Tasmania. °C) >9=9) effective(T mean– GrowingDegree Days Tthreshold (BEGDD= (10 crop, lengthofgrowing season,yieldandquality. The heat unitsfor wine, biologically Tasmania from 1961to 2100(Figure 1),whichwillsignificantly influence choice of Projections suggest that there willbe agradual increase inannualGDDacross abasetemperature,while subtracting 10 °Cfor often wine grapes. heat unitsover time(from 1July)andiscalculated from theaverage dailytemperature number ofgrowing degree days (GDD). This index isameasure oftheaccumulation of Climate Futures for Tasmania were projections used to calculate changes in the oftheTasmanian impacts Modelling climate

Pho to: Da vi d andtablewinesofexceptionalclimate sparkling quality. The typical Ru s se ll

P h o to : L iam Gash 2 BEGDD BEGDD 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 600 800 600 800 1975 1975 2000 2000 wine grape productionWest Tamar Huon 2030 2030 2060 2060 2085 2085 2016‑2045 and20712100. Tasmania for 1961‑1990, theperiods using sixGCMsfor sixwineregions in Box plots of October toBox BEGDD April plotsofOctober BEGDD BEGDD Projected Changes inBEGDD 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 for TasmanianRegions Wine 600 800 600 800 Figures Source: 1975 1975 Projected changeingrowing degree days across (GDD 10°C) Tasmania for from sixperiods 1975to 2085. 2036‑2065 BEGDD BEGDD 1961‑1990 1961−1990 2035−2065 2000 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 West Tamar 600 800 600 800 West Tamar

BEGDD Figure 2 BEGDD Huon 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2030 2030 600 800 600 800 1975 1975

BEGDD BEGDD Projected Changes inGrowing Degree Days 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 600 800 600 800 20002 20002 1975 1975 2060 2060 Hobart, Tasmania.Hobart, agriculture Antarctic technical Climate andEcosystems report, Cooperative Research Centre, R, Parsons D, Lisson S,GaynorSM& Bindoff NL2010,Climate Futures forTasmania: on impacts Grose JC, Corney MR,Bennett SP,Holz GK, White CJ, Phelan D, Potter D, Rawnsley K, Kriticos Pipers Brook Glenora Glenora 1975 1975 2000 2000 2085 2085 0302 0302 West Tamar 2000 2000 Huon West Tamar 2030 2030 0602 0602 Huon 2030 2030

2060 BEGDD 2060

085 085 BEGDD Figure 1Growing Degree Days Mean GDDfromMean sixdownscaled GCMs. 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 600 800 600 800 2060 2060 2085 2085 1975 1975 2085 2085

BEGDD BEGDD 2056‑2085 1991‑2020 20002 20002 2055−2085 1995−2025 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 600 800 600 800 Pipers Brook BEGDDBEGDD BEGDD

Glenora BEGDD 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 600 800 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 600 800 600 800

1975 1975 BEGDD 0302 BEGDD 0302 BEGDD BEGDD 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 600 800 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 600 800 600 800 1975 1975 2000 2000 1975 1975 0602 0602 Coal Valley 1975 1975 Swansea 1975 1975 2000 2000 Huon Valley 20002 20002 2030 2030 085 085 West Tamar Pipers Brook 2000 2000 Glenora 20002 20002 Huon West Tamar 2030 2030 Pipers Brook 0302 0302 2060 2060 Huon Glenora 2030 2030 0302 0302 2060 2060

2085 BEGDD 2085 BEGDD 0602 0602 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2060 2060 600 800 600 800 2085 2085 0602 0602 085 085 2085 2085 1975 1975 085 085 2016‑2045 2071‑2100 2000 2000 2085−2100 2016−2045

BEGDD BEGDDCoal Valley BEGDD BEGDD Swansea 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 600 800 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2030 2030

600 800 BEGDD 600 800 BEGDD BEGDD BEGDD 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 600 800 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 600 800 600 800 1975 1975 1975 1975 2060 2060 1975 1975 1975 1975 20002 20002 2000 2000 2085 2085 Pipers Brook Coal Valley Coal Valley Pipers Brook 20002 20002 Glenora Swansea 2000 2000 Pipers Brook 0302 0302 2030 2030 Coal Valley Glenora Swansea Swansea 0302 0302 2030 2030 0602 0602 2060 2060 Growing Degree Days 0602 0602 2060 2060 085 085 2085 2085 1000 1100 1200 1400 1600 1800 2100 2500 200 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 085 085 2085 2085 3

BEGDD BEGDD 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 600 800 BEGDD600 800 BEGDD 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 600 800 600 800 1975 1975 1975 1975 2000 2000 Coal Valley Swansea 2000 2000 Coal Valley 2030 2030 Swansea 2030 2030 2060 2060 2060 2060 2085 2085 2085 2085 wine grape production

information about theprojectinformation about go to: Cooperative Research Centre (ACE For CRC). more managed by Climate &Ecosystems theAntarctic The Climate Futures forTasmania project was from Hydro Tasmania.funding support Program.Mitigation The project alsoreceived additional Research Facilities Program andNatural Disaster Tasmania, theAustralian Government’s Commonwealth Environment

Medium toMedium long-term Short-term medium andlong-term. of management optionsfor theshort, Wine grape producers have anumber options Potential management

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rainfall and shorter growingrainfall andshorter seasons. warmer temperatures, later season varieties that are better suited to Growers to alternative trial canstart manage extremelyhotdays (>35 °C). may alsobeusedtoIrrigation ambient heat. reduce reflective heat andbuffer managing the floor to canbeminimisedby impacts °C), On extremelyhotdays (>35 from sunburn. canopy management to protect fruit Increased temperatures may require to managepestsanddisease. andspray penetrationbetter airflow need to manage canopies to allow regions will mean that growers will Increased rainfall events in some Trial Mediterranean varieties. selection. (or lower) elevations, modifyaspect diverse locations, egplant at higher topographically andgeographically Develop newvineyards in and clones. more diseaseresistantSelect varieties varieties. or alternative clonesofexisting drought and heat tolerant varieties Where water islimiting, plant more

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f o r t a sm an www.acecrc.org.au ia funded primarilyby theState Government of (Holz et al 2010). Report from onAgriculture theImpacts Technical Futures forTasmania project. Inparticular, developed from outputsfrom theClimate The Climate Futures forTasmania project was The material inthisinformationsheetwas About Climate Futures for Tasmania crop andlivestock enterprise tools visit be madebetween enterprises includingcash potential investors to allow comparisons to For information to and assistfarmers further investment enquiries. collating statistics andassistingwith Tasmanian winesector, and collecting and The weather forecasts andclimate variability: The Bureau of Meteorology provides data on extreme events: catchments, onagriculture and impacts in Tasmania on general climate, water and information ofclimate change ontheimpacts Climate Futures for Tasmania provide reports and adaptation programs andoptions: information onclimate changemitigation, (TCCO)Climate ChangeOffice provides The TasmanianGovernment’s Tasmanian information sheetsisavailable at: change inagriculture. The fullsuite of produced by ofclimate TIA ontheimpacts ofaseries This information sheetispart in Further Mohammed (TIA) Mohammed (TCCO), Caroline Brown (DPIPWE)&Caroline ShonaPrior David ParsonsPhelan (TIA), (TIA), David David (TIA), Sanderson Kerslake (TIA), Fiona JoannaJones(TIA), (TIA), Bridle Kerry Contributors www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/wealthfromwater www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/climatechange Graphic Design: SuzieGaynor| Tasmanian ofAgriculture Institute (TIA) Wine Tasmania provide RD&Efor the www.climatechange.tas.gov.au www.climatechange.tas.gov.au www.winetasmania.com.au the TasmanianGovernment. the University of Tasmania and TIA is a joint venture between www.tia.tas.edu.au www.bom.gov.au/ fo rmation Institute ofAgriculture.Institute the Tasmanianand Tasmanian Government a joint ofthe production This information sheetis GGG -May 2012 4