Fort Mcdowell Yavapai Nation (FMYN) Is Located in Northeastern Maricopa County of Arizona

HEAT, WATER & ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST CLIMATE PROFILE FOR THE FORT MCDOWELL YAVAPAI NATION i CLIMATE PROFILE FOR THE FORT MCDOWELL YAVAPAI NATION DEVELOPED FOR: Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation Environmental Department COMPILED BY: University of Arizona's Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions, Native Nations Climate Adaptation Program, and Climate Assessment for the Southwest WITH FUNDING FROM: The Agnese Nelms Haury Program in Environment and Social Justice AUTHORS: Alison M. Meadow University of Arizona Institute of the Environment Jeremy Weiss University of Arizona School of Natural Resources and the Environment Sarah LeRoy University of Arizona Institute of the Environment Valerie A. Small University of Arizona Native Nations Climate Adaptation Program Mary Black University of Arizona Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions Daniel Ferguson University of Arizona Climate Assessment for the Southwest SUGGESTED CITATION: Meadow, A., J. Weiss, S. LeRoy, V. A. Small, M. Black, and D. Ferguson (2017) Climate Profile for the Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation. Native Nations Climate Adaptation Program; University of Arizona. www.ccass.arizona.edu/nncap For More Information Contact: Alison Meadow Staff Scientist Institute of the Environment - University of Arizona [email protected] 520-626-0652 COVER PHOTO: CHRIS ENGLISH ii CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 BASELINE CLIMATE DATA FOR THE FORT MCDOWELL YAVAPAI NATION 2 Temperature in Historical Perspective 3 Precipitation in Historical Perspective 5 CLIMATE TRENDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE 6 Why is the climate changing? 9 FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROJECTIONS FOR ARIZONA 12 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS FOR THE FORT MCDOWELL YAVAPAI NATION 16 Agriculture 16 Human Health 16 Extreme Heat and Energy Use 16 Air Pollution 17 Dust Storms 19 Diseases and Vector-Borne Diseases 20 Sonoran Desert Ecosystems and Species 21 Protected Species 21 Culturally Significant Species 22 Invasive Plant Species 22 Water Availability 24 Central Arizona Project Allocation 24 Verde River Streamflow 25 Water Quality 26 Drought 26 Emergency Management 27 Flooding 27 Wildfire 27 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLANNING 28 ADDITIONAL RESOURCES TO SUPPORT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLANNING 29 GLOSSARY 30 REFERENCES CITED 31 iii INTRODUCTION The Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation (FMYN) is located in northeastern Maricopa County of Arizona. The Nation has 24,680 acres of land and is bordered by the town of Fountain Hills, the communities of Rio Verde and Goldfield Ranch, and the Tonto National Forest. The Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community lies to the south of FMYN. The Verde River runs lengthwise (about 10 miles north to south) through FMYN (see Figure 1). The following analysis was done over an area that includes FMYN and a 4-km (2.5-mile) mile buffer around it so as to include relevant influences on its climate. Figure 1: Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation. Map by University of Arizona Advanced Resource Technology (ART) Lab. 1 BASELINE CLIMATE DATA FOR THE FORT MCDOWELL YAVAPAI NATION To analyze the climate across the FMYN, we relied on the PRISM PRISM allows for an accurate analysis of climate across large (Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model) areas because, in addition to the data generated by weather dataset (http://prism.oregonstate.edu/). PRISM is a method that stations, it accounts for variations in weather1 and climate due to uses the weather station observations that are available in a complex terrain, rain shadows, elevation, and aspect – all of which particular region to estimate climate variables for 2.5-mile (4-km) affect weather patterns on the Nation, as discussed below in the areas in a continuous grid across the United States. The stations section on Precipitation. PRISM data begins in 1895 with the first used in PRISM mainly come from the National Weather Service consistently recorded instrumental climate records. Climatologists Cooperative Observer Program of the National Oceanic and refer to the period from 1895 to the present as the “instrumental Atmospheric Administration, which have the longest continuous record” period. record of weather data. However, data from other weather stations are included if they have at least 20 years of data. 1 Bolded terms are included in the Glossary CHRIS ENGLISH 2 Temperature in Historical Perspective Between 1895 and 2015, the annual average temperature across the FMYN was 70.2° F (represented by the straight horizontal line in Figure 2). However, year-to-year the averages have ranged from 67.4° F in 1912 to over 73° F in 1996. Years with average temperatures below 70.2° F are represented by blue bars; years with average temperatures above 70.2° F are represented with red bars. Although year-to-year changes in temperature are natural and expected in this region, we see a fairly consistent rising trend in annual temperatures since the mid-1980s, which is likely a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Since 1985 almost all years have had average annual temperatures above the long-term average. Annual Average Temperatures for the Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation 1895–2015 Figure 2: Average annual temperatures for FMYN from 1895 – 2015. 3 ZACK GUIDO Disaggregating temperatures as average daily maximum, average In Figure 3, below, we see that minimum annual average daily minimum, as well as overall average allows us to identify temperatures (shown in yellow) for FMYN have been rising patterns in the ways in which warming is impacting a region. faster than maximums (shown in red). This pattern indicates that Maximum annual average temperature tells us the average of all the warming trend is being driven by rising low temperatures – the warmest (typically afternoon) daily temperature readings in an temperatures are not dropping as much as they used to in the area. Minimum annual average temperature tells us the average past. of the lowest temperature readings, which typically occur in the early morning. Overall average is the average of both maximum and minimum temperatures for an area over a given time. Maximum, Minimum, and Average Temperatures for the Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation 1895–2015 Figure 3: Annual average maximum, minimum, and overall average temperatures for FMYN from 1895 – 2015. 4 Precipitation in Historical Perspective As is normal in the Sonoran Desert, precipitation across FMYN is highly variable and has ranged from 23.6 inches in 1992 to as little Figure 4, below, shows that the average precipitation across as 4.6 inches in 1956. Years with above-average precipitation FMYN between 1895 and 2015 was 11.1 inches per year. Based are represented with green bars; years with below-average on conversations with the FMYN Environmental Department about precipitation are represented with brown bars. FMYN has the geographic area that influences the climate and ecosystem of experienced two periods of generally above-average precipitation FMYN, in our analysis we used a geographic area that includes (pluvials) with intervening drought periods. The most distinct a 2.5-mile (4km) buffer around the boundary of the Nation. By pluvials occurred from 1905 through the mid-1940s (with some including areas higher in elevation that surround the Nation, we dry years during that period) and again in the late 1970s through have captured higher precipitation levels than might be recorded the mid-1990s. Multi-year drought periods (multiple years with at weather stations placed directly on FMYN. The larger area of below average precipitation) occurred in the early 1900s, 1950s, analysis was chosen to represent the wider area that influences and early 2000s. FMYN. Annual Average Precipitation for the Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation 1895–2015 Figure 4: Average annual precipitation across the FMYN from 1895 – 2015. 5 CLIMATE TRENDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE Global average temperatures are rising. They do not rise everywhere or every year in exactly the same amount, but overall, the whole world is warming up. Figure 5 shows some of the changes scientists and others have observed about the ways in which the Earth is changing. The white arrows indicate increasing trends, like rising temperatures and sea levels. The black arrows indicate decreasing trends, such as the amount of snow in northern and mountain regions. Figure 5: Some of the indicators that the world, as a whole, is warming up. The white arrows indicate increasing trends, like rising temperatures and sea levels. The black arrows indicate decreasing trends, such as the amount of snow in northern and mountain regions. Source: http:// nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/observed-change#tab2-images. 6 Figure 6 shows temperature changes from 1991 to 2012 in clouds, which decrease the amount of sunlight reaching the land the United States compared to the average temperatures surface; unusually high soil moisture, which contributes to high from 1901 to 1960. The darker the red color, the greater the evaporation rates; and lower daytime temperatures in those areas difference between 1901–1960 and 1991–2012: these areas (Kennedy 2014); sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific, have experienced more warming. While most areas of the United which affect storm patterns (Meehl et al. 2015); and air pollution States have warmed in recent decades, not every area has from aerosols that scatter or reflect sunlight (Leibensperger et al. experienced (or will experience) a constant rate of warming. In 2012). This pattern, sometimes called the “warming hole” (i.e., a the southeastern United States are several areas that appear hole in the warming trend) has reversed since the year 2000 and to have cooled instead of warmed. Researchers have linked the southeastern United States is now warming at a rate similar to this period of cooling to a combination of factors including: thick surrounding regions (Meehl et al. 2015). Observed Temperature Changes Across the United States 1901 - 2012 Figure 6: Observed temperature changes from 1991–2012 in the United States compared to the average temperatures from 1901–1960. The darker the red color, the greater the difference between 1901–1960 and 1991–2012: these areas have experienced more warming.

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