Kim Mercado CBRE April 23 2009
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Greater Toronto Market Overview April 2009 Kim Mercado, Director of National Research CB Richard Ellis Boring is Sometimes Better Soundest Banking Systems World’s Safest Banks •Canada (1) 1. KfW (Germany) •Sweden (2) 2. Caisse des Depots et •Luxembourg (3) Consignations (France) •Australia (4) 3. Bank Nederlands •Denmark (5) Gemeenten (Netherlands) •France (19) 10. Royal Bank of Canada •Botswana (38) 14. TD Bank •Germany (39) 23. Scotiabank •United States (40) 33. Bank of Montreal •Japan (93) 43. CIBC Source: The World Economic Forum’s Global Source: Global Finance magazine Competiveness Report Toronto’s Competitive Ranking Scorecard on Prosperity Competitive Alternatives: Livable Cities Focus on Tax • Calgary (1) • San Juan, US (1) • Vancouver (1) • Dallas (2) • Puebla, MX (2) • Melbourne (2) • Hong Kong (3) • Guadalajara, MX (3) • Vienna (3) • Toronto (4*) • Vancouver (4) • Perth (4) • Boston (4*) • Monterrey, MX (5) • Toronto (5) • London (4*) • Montreal (6) • Helsinki (6) • New York (4*) • Toronto (7) • Adelaide (7*) • Vancouver (8*) • Baltimore (8) • Calgary (7*) • Seattle (8*) • Atlanta (9) • Geneva (9*) • Quebec City (10) • Melbourne (10) • Sydney (9*) • Zurich (9*) Source: Toronto Board of Trade Source: KPMG Source: The Economist Office Market Overview Toronto’s Competitive Environment – Occupancy Costs 200 150 m u n n A 100 / F S / $ S U 50 0 Toronto Tokyo (Inner London (City) Paris New York Boston (CBD) (CBD) Central) (Downtown) Source: CB Richard Ellis Toronto’s Competitive Environment – Office Vacancy 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Toronto Boston New York London Paris Tokyo (Inner (CBD) (CBD) (Downtown) (City) Central) Source: Real Capital Analytics GTA Unemployment Expected to Climb 450 10% Forecast 360 8% ) s ' 270 6% 0 0 0 ( s b o J 180 4% 90 2% 0 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 FIRE Jobs Unemployment Rate Source: Conference Board of Canada GTA Office Supply & Demand (All Classes) +18.8 mil +15.3 mil 8,000 20% 18.6% 6,000 15% 11.3% 4,000 10% e t ) 8.9% 6.8% a s ' R 0 0 y 0 2,000 5% c ( n F a c S a 0 0% V -2,000 -5% -4,000 - 9.0 mil -10% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Absorption New Supply Vacancy Rate Historical Average Vacancy Rate 1995 GTA Inventory – 99.6 million SF 2008 GTA Inventory – 141.9 million SF Toronto Downtown – Major ‘New’ Office Buildings Bay-Adelaide Centre RBC Centre TELUS Tower 18 York Street 4Q 4Q 4Q 3Q 09 09 09 11 71% preleased Rentable Area (SF) 1,100,000 1,200,000 780,000 641,000 Typical Floor Size (SF) 23,000 – 25,300 25,000 – 48,000 27,500 26,500 Floors 51 41 30 26 YRS 1-5: $34.00 NET YRS 1-5: $31.00 NET Net Rent (psf) Low Rise $36.00 NET, YRS 1-10 $29.50 NET, YRS 1-10 YRS 6-10: $37.00 NET YRS 6-10: $34.00 NET Additional Rent (psf) $27.64 (2009) $22.29 (2009) $22.00 (2009) $23.42 (2011) Tenant Allowance (psf) N/A N/A $40.00 $25.00 KPMG 303,000 GOODMANS LLP 182,000 RBC & RBC DEXIA TELUS 440,000 FASKENS 166,000 767,000 KINROSS GOLD 82,000 PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS Lead Tenants (SF) HEENAN BLAIKIE 120,000 FAIRMONT RAFFLES ACE INSURANCE 54,800 280,000 BROOKFIELD/ BROOKFIELD HOTELS SMA 27,500 ASSET MANAGEMENT 71,000 77,000 KWA 14,000 ASAP MARKETING 10,000 BUCK CONSULTANTS 50,000 Leased 78% 75% 79% 44% Parking Ratio 1:2,500 SF 1:2,000 SF 1:2,900 SF 1:3,200 SF Completion Date Q4 2009 Q4 2009 Q4 2009 Q3 2011 © 2006 CB Richard Ellis, Real Estate Brokerage. The information contained herein (the "Information") is intended for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon by recipients hereof. Although the Information is believed to be correct, its accuracy, correctness or completeness cannot be guaranteed and has not been verified by either CB Richard Ellis Limited Toronto Downtown New Supply & Vacancy Rate CLASS A ‘90 - ‘92 ‘01 – ‘03 ‘09 – ’11 Vacancy Rate at beginning of downturn 7.3% (’89) 3.8% (’00) 3.7% (’08) Vacancy Rate at end of downturn 19.8% (’92) 12.4% (‘03) 19.0% (2011)* New Supply (SF) (year preceding the 1,500,000 0 80,000 downturn) New Supply (SF) 6,900,000 840,000 4,600,000 * Projected Vacancy Rate 1989 - 1992 2000 - 2003 2008 - 2011 SF (000's) Vacancy SF (000's) Vacancy SF (000's) Vacancy 3,500 21% 3,500 21% 3,500 21% 19.8% 3,000 18% 3,000 18% 3,000 18% 19.0% 2,500 15% 2,500 15% 2,500 15% 12.4% 2,000 12% 2,000 12% 2,000 12% 1,500 9% 1,500 9% 1,500 9% 7.3% 1,000 6% 1,000 6% 1,000 6% 3.7% 500 3% 500 3.8% 3% 500 3% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1989 1990 1991 1992 2000 2001 2002 2003 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F New Supply Vacancy Rate New Supply Vacancy Rate New Supply Vacancy Rate 1992 Toronto Downtown Inventory – 49.5 million SF 2003 Toronto Downtown Inventory – 59.5million SF 2011 Toronto Downtown Projected Inventory 64.6 million SF Toronto Downtown Class A Office Supply & Demand 3,500 21% RBC Bay Adelaide TELUS Tower Centre Centre 3.1 million SF 3,000 18% 15.6% 2,500 15% 13.3% 2,000 12% 18 York Street +3.0 mil e t ) 1,500 9% a s ' 6.5% R 0 0 y c 0 1,000 641,000 6% ( n SF F a c S 3.7% 500 3% a V 0 851,000 0% SF -500 -3% Maple TEDCO 111 Leaf Corus Richmond Square Building Street -1,000 West -6% -1,500 -9% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F Absorption N ew Supply Vacancy Rate 2008 Class A Inventory – 34.6 million SF 2011 Class A Inventory - 39.2 million SF Toronto Central Market - Historical Sublet Analysis Total Sublet SF vs. % of Overall Vacant Space 2,500 30% 27.3% 2,000 24% ) s ' e 0 22.3% c 0 a 0 p ( 1,500 18% S F t S n t 15.1% a e c l a b u V f S 1,000 12% l o a t 6.4% % o T 500 6% 0 0% '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 1Q09 Sublet Space % Vacant Space for Sublet Historical Average % of Vacant Space that is Sublet Historical Average Sublet Space Toronto Central Market (Downtown & Midtown) – 74.5 million SF Greater Toronto Market Overview April 2009 Kim Mercado, Director of National Research CB Richard Ellis.