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1 1. Adaptive Management and Monitoring 1. Adaptive Management and Monitoring 3. CHALLENGES OF ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING AT 1. A STORY OF ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: SCALES ABOVE THE LANDSCAPE LEVEL BALANCING THE PRAGMATIC AND THE *Bronwyn Bowen Llewellyn, World Wildlife Fund - SCIENTIFIC TO ADVANCE THE US; *Martha H. Surridge, World Wildlife Fund - US CONSERVATION OF EXPLOITED SEAHORSES. As conservation NGOs manage projects at scales beyond the *Sian Kristina Morgan, University of British landscape level, questions arise as to the functionality of current program management tools across all scales. We Columbia; *Sarah Foster, Fisheries Centre, examined the scale-independence of the Open Standards for University of British Columbia; *Amanda CJ Program Management in the Congo basin, the Himalayas and Vincent, University of British Columbia regarding international fishing practices. We found that the Ongoing adaptive management of resources, using best processes for developing a program's: conservation vision, available data, is critical for effective conservation. For scope, team composition, conceptualization of direct and seahorses (genus Hippocampus), we show how three iterations indirect threats and slate of key stakeholders and partners of targeted demographic and life history research were used to remain consistent across scales. However, selecting advance conservation of these exploited fishes. In 2002, all biodiversity targets; assessing current status and viability seahorses were listed on Appendix II of the Convention on thereof; and establishing program objectives and effectiveness International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and indicators varies when moving from landscape to multi- Flora (CITES). Upon implementation in May 2004, the CITES ecoregion scales. These results highlight the need for large- Animals Committee recommended a 10 cm minimum size limit scale conservation planning to be grounded in ecological theory (MSL) for de facto management of data-poor populations. We (e.g., metapopulations) and to employ sophisticated sampling contextualize the use of this first MSL as a pragmatic interim and statistical protocols. step towards conservation in the face of imperfect knowledge. Subsequent measurements from >1500 seahorses of 14 species 4. ESTIMATING ECOLOGICAL TREND: at 26 trading facilities in Asia and North America were then WHICH MODEL SHOULD I USE? used to revise the MSL and generate a corresponding "trade height" for use by Customs agents. Recent population viability *Brian Dennis, University of Idaho; *Jean-Yves analysis has now compared the potential effects of different Humbert, ART Research Station, Zurich; *L. Scott size-based and time-based openings on the persistence of Mills, University of Montana; *Jon S Horne, seahorses in an active fishery in the Philippines. The latter University of Idaho represents the type of regional management options that could Regression of log-abundance of a population versus time is be evaluated by scientific authorities tasked to implement often used to estimate the population's trend. It is not widely CITES obligations for signatory countries. This multi-year realized that such regression carries implicit assumptions about progression is a strong example of pragmatic management how the trend and the variability in the population abundances beginning in the face of imperfect scientific information, with arise. If the statistical model does not adequately describe the iterative research used to inform ongoing conservation needs. process by which the data are produced, the trend estimate can be seriously in error. Here we describe three models for 2. ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT FOR estimating population trend. The three are different stochastic ENDANGERED SPECIES RECOVERY: MAKING versions of the exponential growth model: (1) observation error HABITAT RESTORATION COUNT only, (2) environmental process noise only, and (3) a state space model which combines both observation error and *Tim Tear, The Nature Conservancy process noise. We describe the statistical methods for obtaining Despite three decades of implementing the Endangered Species parameter estimates, including estimates of trend, for time Act, there are few examples of feasible monitoring plans that series abundance data under each of the three models. Log- evaluate the progress of recovery efforts. We propose a new abundance regression turns out to correspond to deterministic approach that draws heavily from adaptive management in exponential growth with observation error only, that is, model other areas of conservation. This relatively simple framework (1). links recovery criteria in recovery plans directly to a monitoring plan designed to incorporate multiple, habitat and population-based attributes to gauge progress toward defined 5. IS MY POPULATION RECOVERING, recovery goals. The proposed framework may be most DECREASING, OR STATIONARY? IMPROVING appealing when species' persistence depends on human THE STATUS QUO FOR ESTIMATING interventions to demonstrate that restoration actions are having EXPONENTIAL TREND FROM COUNT DATA the intended effect. This approach is a notable departure and *L. Scott Mills, University of Montana; *Jean-Yves improvement from the binary evaluation emphasized by the Endangered Species Act, where listed species are either Humbert, ART Research Station, Zurich; *Jon S recovered or not recovered. We present a case study that Horne, University of Idaho; *Brian Dennis, evaluates the restoration progress for a species on the brink of University of Idaho extinction, the Karner blue butterfly. We use this case study to An estimate of the trend, or population growth rate, is perhaps illustrate emphasis on habitat-based recovery criteria may the most fundamental piece of information necessary for improve endangered species monitoring efforts that have diagnosing and recovering any species of concern. Managers historically biased in favor of population-based attributes. We and researchers commonly use simple series of abundance data propose that by improving the transparency and decision- collected over time, without count covariates and ignoring making process in endangered species recovery efforts via an density dependence, to address the question: "How well is my increased emphasis on adaptively managed projects, our population doing?". We use simulations to evaluate two investments in endangered species recovery will have greater commonly-used and one new method to estimate trend efficiency, impact, and acceptability in society. parameters (mean and standard error). Surprisingly, we find that the most-commonly used method -- a linear regression of 1 log-transformed count values plotted against time - shows have become an attractive alternative to more intensive and mediocre performance under realistic conditions with both expensive abundance estimation designs. As such, the problems environmental noise and observation error affecting the trend in associated with traditional presence/absence data have gained the time series. The new state space model, which accounts for serious management attention and consideration. Recent both forms of variation, performs well in all cases, no matter research has demonstrated that detectability, or the ability of a whether observation error only, environmental variation only, survey method to detect all individuals present, can pose or both are present. These results hold even with missing serious problems that could compromise the strength and observations in the time series. We conclude that the dominant validity of conclusions when not accounted for in paradigm for estimating simple exponential growth through a presence/absence studies. Occupancy modeling is a new log-linear regression be strongly tempered by a more technique that offers a rigorous and feasible approach to thoughtful consideration of its fundamental assumptions. address these challenges. We utilized an occupancy modeling Further, for a fixed budget for field data collection to estimate approach to develop robust models for the distribution of forest trend, we recommend directing more effort into fewer, better interior breeding birds in the Hudson River Valley, New York. estimates of abundance, even if some years of sampling must These predictions will provide baselines for future monitoring be skipped. and management, while offering sound scientific criteria for open-space protection and conservation planning in this region. 6. SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT IN THE IBERIAN LYNX (LYNX PARDINUS) 2. Advances in Freshwater Conservation CONSERVATION BREEDING PROGRAM Planning *Astrid Vargas, Ministry of the Environment; *Fernando Martinez, Ministry of the Environment; 1. INFLUENCES OF STREAM NETWORK *Iñigo Sánchez, Jerez Zoo; *Jose Antonio Godoy, CONNECTIVITY AND HABITAT QUALITY ON Doñana Biological Station; *Eduardo Roldan, THE DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF National Museum of Natural Science; *Katarina IDAHO GIANT SALAMANDERS, Jewgenow, IZW; *Hans Lutz, Clinical Laboratory DICAMPTODON ATERRIMUS Univ of Zurich; *Josep Pastor, University of *Adam Sepulveda, University of Montana; *Winsor Barcelona; *David Wildt, Smithsonian Institution; Lowe, University of Montana *Teresa Abaigar, Estacion Zona Aridas; *Robert C. Species distribution and abundance depend on a balance Lacy, Chicago Zoological Society (Brookfield Zoo); between landscape processes and local processes. To successfully manage populations in areas with human *Urs Breitenmoser, IUCN CatSG; *Miguel Delibes, disturbance, an understanding of important processes at each
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