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The Future of Crime T If you have issues viewing or accessing this file contact us at NCJRS.gov. \ National Institute of Mental Health THE FUTURE OF CRIME T- " - ,, L • I,. ~ ~ -ime and Delinquency Issues ~PARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Public Health Service 101, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration . ... - ---.- '~ \ ';; \ I \\ . \ ' j )1 CRIME AND DELINQUENCY ISSUES: f I,I A Monograph Series \I, I' ~~ OF CRIME U.S. Department of Justice National institute of Justice This document has been reproduced exactly as received from the person or organization originating it. Points of view or opinions stat?d in this document are those of the authors and do not necessanly Gresham M. Sykes, Ph. D. represent the official position or policies of the National Institute of Department of Sociology Justice. University of Virginia... Permission to reproduce this copyrighted material has been granted by Public Domain/ Department of Health and Human Resources ,. ··If .: '.. , " to the National Criminal Justice Reference Service (NCJRS). ~ f 1 .V, ", ',~f.,. ' Further reproduction outside of the NCJRS system requires permis­ , I , sion of the copyright owner. 't I I J ; I \O\~G ~ J~CQU\S 'T '" U.S. DEPARTMENT qF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Publ ic Health Service Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration National Institute of Mental Health The U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare became the Center for Studies of Crime and Delinquency U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on May 4,1980. 5600 Fishers Lane )I." Rockville, Maryland 20857 For sale by the Superintendent of Docwnent!'l. U.S. Governmen,t Printing Office Washington. D.C. 20402 - -r-----·--- - ---. Contents Page Foreword. .. v Chapter 1. Introduction .............................. 1 This monograph is one of a series on current issues and directions in the area of crime and delinquency. The series is being sponsored by the Center for Studies of Crime and The Limits of Futurology . .. 1 Delinquency, National Institute of Mental Health, to encourage the exchange of views The Crisis in Crime . .. 3 on issues and to promote in-depth analyses and development of insights and recommenda­ tions pertaining to them. Chapter 2. Future Trends in Crime Causation. .. 8 This monograph was written by a fG'cogni:zed authority in the subject matter field Theoretical Perspectives . , . .. 8 under contract number 282-76.Q409 from the National Institute of Mental Health. The opinions expressed herein are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the The Spatial Distribution of Crime ..................... 10 official position of the National Institute of Mental Health or the Department of Health Famil~T Structure .................................. 19 and Human Services. Economic }i'actors ................................. 26 Education ........................................ 35 Values .......................................... 39 Chapter 3. Unconventional Crime ....................... 44 White-Collar Crime . .. .. 44 Political Crime .................................... 48 DHHS PUb. No. (ADM) 80-912 Printed 1980 Illegal Dissent ........... r • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• 49 Official Lawlessness ...... .. 55 Political Corruption .... .. 58 Chapter 4. Conclusions .............•................. 63 ,r . Footnotes ........................................ " 70 iii - - -, List of Table!! and Figures .. Page t~ 1\ I Table 1. Population Projections for the United States i I \, by Age Groups-, 1975 to the Year 2000 ................. 4 I 'j r Ii Foreword Table 2. Crime Rates by Regions, 1976 ................... 12 1;' \ 11 Table 3. Illegitimate Birth Rates, 1940 to 1975 ............ 23 ( I, II \ The crime and delinquency field has long been characteJized Figure 1. Modes of Analysis of Crime and !\ by the lack of a future orientation. In contrast to fields such as Economic Fact ors ................................ 27 i!( I economics and technology, where attempts to forecast the future Figure 2. Age and Arrest Rate per 100,000, are frequent and routine, little systematic effort has been made 38 1iJ 1975 ........................................... to analyze important changes that could occur in crinie and de­ ! linquency problems in coming decades.! Are we moving into an I ji era in which there is apt to be significantly more crime, delin­ quency, and violence? Or is the prospect rather one of increasing I respect for the law? Or of no significant change at all? Questions like these need to be addressed if the crime and delinquency field is, in Harold Lasswell's words, "to use thought about the future I as an intellectual tool, and to interrelate it to the other prob­ rl iem-solving tasks-the clarification of goal values, the descrip­ 11 tion of past trends, the analysis of conditioning factors, the inven­ tion and assessment of policy options."z I, f~lf In this monograph, Dr. Gresham M. Sykes takes on the chal­ l lenging task of speculating about the possible future course of j ~ (!rirne and delinquency, in the United States. He draws for this !\ purpose upon a rich background in sociology and criminology, as manifested in such prior pUblications as Crime and Society (1967), Social Problems in America (1971), and Criminology (1978). His interest in issues related to the future is also reflected " Jj i in two earlier articles, "The Future of Criminality" in American 'i ~ I Behavioral Scientist (1972) and "New Crimes for Old" in American . Scholar (1971). / I Readers of this monograph will discover rather quickly that Dr. ;. 'J I] Sykes is not greatly impressed by some of the sophisticated meth­ , - \ }1 ods which analysts in other fields have developed for use in future ·f 3 I' studies-e.g., modeling, scenario construction, Delphi exercises. 11 Notwithstanding the ingenuity of such methodologies, Dr. Sykes !i Ii writes, '~l'he basic approaches to forecasting remain few in number II and of uncertain worth. Extrapolation from trends in the past, ~ intuitive descriptions of things to 'come, and predictions based on 1\ il theories of stability or change in the underlying causal variables [. f: I! constitute the major methods, and none can be accepted as a sure I iv guide." 11 I II v 14" , " ;-f l\ - -~, - " --- -----~-------------------- vi FOREWORD Confronted with such uncertainty, Dr. Sykes has elected to) focus the bulk of his attention on the possible futures of six major aspects of the American social structure-the community, the family, the system of stratification, education, the economi~ structure, and what can be called the system of meaning or ultl­ CHAPTER 1 mate values. Drawing on existing sociological theories of crime causation, Dr. Sykes examines various ways in which stability Introduction and change in these aspects of the social structure could affect the course of future crime and delinquency problems. Another feature of the monograph is the inclusion of white­ The Lim its of Futurology collar crime and political crime within the focus of the discussion. Dr. Sykes suggests that coming decades may witness a significant Books and articles on the future of society have flooded the increase in white-collar crime, as social norms concerning respect professional literature in the social sciences for a quarter of a for private property continue to erode as the very notion of owner­ century. "The art of prophecy now commands considerable atten­ ship "becomes ever more abstract, diluted, or impersonal in a tion," notes Wilbert Moore. "The American Academy of Arts bureaucratized mass society." In the case of political crime, Dr. and Sciences has a Commission on the Year 2000; there is a British Sykes is less willing to venture predictions but rather argues the Commission on the Next Twenty Years; a periodical called The need for this type of crime to become more central in criminologi­ Futurist; a French series of papers called Les Futuribles; and these cal thinking of the future. represent only samples. No government agency, no large private We are pleased to make Dr. Sykes' analysis of the future available corporation, and no important professional group is without its to practitioners, researchers, and students in the crime and delin­ own corps of forecasters, nor will they be-to make yet another quency field. As possibly the first monograph-length pUblication prophecy-in the foreseeable future."! on this partiCUlar tOPiC, it is hoped that the analysis will help to A number of social commentators have greeted this burgeoning stimulate more discussion and thought on the important topics interest with skepticism or hostility. Futurology, it has been said, that Dr. Sykes has addressed. is simply another intellectual fad, a claim to a predictive power that does not exist or a fascination with the apocalypse dressed up as science. Perhaps most important, however, has been the argument that these attempts to foresee the future represent an unwarranted revival of historical determinism. The idea that soci­ eties must change and develop along some fixed, predictable path has long been rejected by the great majority of American Saleem A. Shah, Ph.D. social scientists, and studies in futurology are viewed by many Chief, Center for Studies of writers as based on a flawed philosophy of history. 2 Crime and Delinquency These criticisms must be taken seriously. There is a faddishness National Institute of Mental Health in the rush to prophesy, when the social sciences can scarcely provide an accurate picture of the present. Tomorrow's headlines continue to confound today's
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