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The Climates of Other Worlds: Searching for the Next Habitable Planet

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The Climates of Other Worlds: Searching for the Next Habitable Planet Aomawa Shields Clare Boothe Luce Assistant Professor Shields Center for Exoplanet Climate and Interdisciplinary Education (SCECIE) University of California, Irvine KITP Friends May 15, 2019 Credit: NASA Radial Velocity (m/s) Velocity Radial Mayor & Queloz 1995 Phase We are in the Earth-sized regime Credit: NASA Credits: NASA Ames / W. Stenzel; Princeton University / T. Morton NASA’s Kepler Mission Transit Technique Credit: NASA Spitzer TESS Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite Credit: George Ricker TESS will identify the best and smallest exoplanet targets for characterization of atmospheres James Webb Space Telescope Starlight filters through the planet’s absorption line spectrum atmosphere Credit: Northrop Grumman • Habitable planet • hosting life? Proxima Centauri b Credit: ESO/M. Kornmesser Credit: NASA-JPL/Caltech LHS 1140b Credit: ESO Which ones do we follow up on? 16 Contact (1997) New era, new approach • Observational data AND computer models NASA + Koshland Science Museum Life’s Requirements A Liquid (H2O) Bioessential Elements (SPONCH) Energy (Stellar or chemical) Photo: Frans La Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds The Habitable Zone ) Runaway greenhouse Maximum CO2 greenhouse Stellar Mass (M Distance from Star (AU) Snowball Earth Many factors can affect planetary habitability Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Galactic Location Composition & Structure Stellar Effects Spectral Liquid water Energy Distribution Planetary Properties Dynamics Surface Atmosphere Interior Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Galactic Location Orbital Composition Evolution & Structure Stellar Planetary Effects System Sibling Planets Spectral Liquid water Energy Distribution Planetary Properties Dynamics Surface Atmosphere Credit: Victoria Interior Meadows Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Isotopic Birth Tides Orbit Abundance Environ. Elem. Galactic Abundance Location Impact Flux Orbital Composition Evolution & Structure Luminosity Magnetic Dust Eccen. Metallicity Field Minor Oscillations Planets Stellar Rotation Planetary Activity Effects System Orbits Companions Sibling Satellites Planets Spectral Liquid water Energy Masses Distribution Obliquity Radius Planetary Orbit Properties Dynamics Albedo Surface Temps Rotation Clouds Oblatenes rate Outgassing Surface Composition Liquids Magnetic Atmosphere Field Surface Credit: Victoria UV Pressure Interior Meadows Shielding Atm. Structure Density Aomawa Shields Structure The Climates of Other Worlds . 1-D line-by-line radiative transfer models Models . 1-D in height . Atmospheric gas absorption . Radiative convective climate models . Energy Balance Models (EBMs) . 0-D or 1-D (in latitude) usually . 3-D General Circulation Models (GCMs) . Sophisticated treatment of atmospheric circulation, ocean- atmosphere processes Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds PREDICTING FUTURE CLIMATE ON EARTH IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers Snowball Earth Artist concept Exploring thaw criteria for Snowball Earth Abbot and Pierrehumbert 2010 Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Abbot et al. 2011 Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Warming Early Mars Credit: ESA Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Forget and Pierrehumbert 1997 Credit: Spitzer Space Telescope Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Credit: NASA, ESA, and S. Beckwith (STScI) and the HUDF Team Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds M-dwarf planets Image credit: ESO/L. Calçada Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Red dwarf Sun The Sun G Dwarf M Dwarf 100% Credit: Victoria Meadows Stellar Brightness Small planets are easier to detect around small stars The Habitable Zone ) Stellar Mass (M Distance from Star (AU) Snowball Earth Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Synchronous rotation and surface pressure (Joshi, Haberle, and Reynolds 1997) Host star Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Synchronous rotation can be a benefit for climate and habitability (Yang et al. 2013) Night side Night side Day side Credit: Jun Yang Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds M-dwarf planets could lose oceans during PMS phase (Luger and Barnes 2015) Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Starlight BINGO Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Ice-albedo Feedback Courtesy of NASA Shutterstock Photo: Stephen Warren Ice Ice Photo courtesy of Stephen Warren Shields et al. (2013) Ice absorbs where M-dwarfs emit strongly Warren et al. (2002) Grenfell et al. (1994) No ice! PAL (“present atm level”) CO2 Snowball! Instellation (% of what Earth receives) M-dwarf planets less susceptible to snowball Shields et al. (2013) F-dwarf planets more susceptible to snowball Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds M-dwarf planet is more stable against convection Shields et al. (2013) Albedo Surface Temperature G-dwarf planet (100%) M-dwarf planet (90%) Shields et al. (2013) Climate Stability No ice! Warm start Cold start Snowball! Shorter jump in ice line Higher jump in ice line Shields et al. (2014) M-dwarf planets have Better for life? more stable climates Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds http://sparce.evac.ou.edu/q_and_a/air_circulation.htm, SPaRCE Transports heat from equator to higher latitudes Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Hadley circulation on deglaciating planets Northern hemisphere winter ) 645 × 109 kg/s 623 × 109 kg/s 489 × 109 kg/s mb Pressure ( Pressure Latitude Shields et al. (2014) Weaker Hadley circulation helps M-dwarf planet thaw more easily Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Identifying Multiple Possible Climate Regimes Wolf, Shields+ (2017) Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Sodium chloride dihydrate (“hydrohalite”) NaCl ·2H2O Carns et al. 2015 Hydrohalite is highly reflective in the IR Shields and Carns 2018 Aomawa Shields Hydrohalite parameterization matters in the HZ, and climate sensitivity increases as instellation is lowered Shields and Carns 2018 Stronger climate sensitivity to hydrohalite parameterization on synchronously-rotating M-dwarf planets Shields and Carns 2018 Aomawa Shields Targeted planet studies Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds “Eyeball Earth” scenario for Gliese 581 g Pierrehumbert 2011 Multiple-planet systems First place to look for a habitable, Earth-like planet? Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Image credit: NASA Ames/JPL-Caltech ? Too hot Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Kepler-62f Needs CO2 Aomawa Shields Image credit: NASA Ames/JPLThe-Caltech Climates of Other Worlds Stable eccentricities e_fmax = 0.32 stable Stable ecc for Kepler-62f 0.00 ≤ e ≤ 0.32 unstable Shields et al. (2016a) Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Surface Temperature High CO2 Earth- Open water like axial tilt Shields et al. Circular 2016a orbit Global mean surface temps similar to Earth! Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Insolation PAL CO2 Shields et al. 2016a Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Surface Temperature freezing freezing point point Obliquity = 60° Obliquity = 23° Shields et al. (2016a) Southern hemisphere summer Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Shields et al. (2016a) Surface Temperature 3 bar CO2 Shields et al. (2016a) Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech Courtesy of ESO/L. Calçada Credit: Ansel Adams Take away point Combining observations AND theory = How we will most accurately assess planetary habitability Aomawa Shields The Climates of Other Worlds Rising Stargirls More than the eye can see IRAS Axel Mellinger www.risingstargirls.org Acknowledgments • UCI • KITP • National Science Foundation • NASA Habitable Worlds Program • Clare Boothe Luce Foundation • UC President’s Postdoctoral Fellowship Program • Virtual Planetary Laboratory • Collaborators –Eric Agol, Sarah Ballard , Rory Barns, Cecilia Bitz, Regina Carns, Benjamin Charnay, , John Johnson , Manoj Joshi, Victoria Meadows, Igor Palubski , Ray Pierrehumbert, Tyler Robinson, Andrew Rushby Thank you! NASA Ames/JPL-Caltech/Tim Pyle Email: [email protected] Aomawa Shields Website: http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/shields/ Minimum land fraction for glaciations increases with redder host star SED Andrew Rushby Rushby et al. in prep M-dwarf planets G-dwarf planets Igor Palubski Palubski et al. in prep Planets orbiting cooler stars are thawed for larger fractions of the year for lower eccentricities NEW WORK (Here at KITP) “Trenberth diagram” Synchronous rotation is possible e=0.00 e=0.32 Shields et al. (2016a).
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