GOVERNMENT FINANCE OFFICERS ASSOCIATION, ALBERTA CHAPTER GFOA Newsletter FALL 2018

2019 GFOA Alberta Conference

June 2-5th, 2019 River Cree Resort & Casino Edmonton Alberta

“Building a Bright Green Future”

Conference Registrations, golf and hotel bookings will open Mid-November Stay-Tuned!

All Keynote speakers are confirmed, with many more exceptional speakers still to come…

Stay Tuned!

In This Issue

• 2019 Conference Info………..…………….Page 1

• David Chilton Bio…………………………...Page 2

• Alexandre Bilodeau Bio……………………Page 3

• Jim Harris and Julie & Colin Angus Bio’s..Page 4

• CLGM Service Excellence……………….....Page 5

• Final PD Opportunity for 2018…………...... Page 6

• Memo of Invitation re: PD……………….... Page 7

• Q3 Economic Update………………...Page(s) 8-10 David Chilton, Monday Morning Opening Keynote

Former “Dragon” on CBC TV’s Dragons’ Den | Bestselling Author of The Wealthy Barber

Whether it’s helping millions of Canadians achieve personal financial success or investing in low-fat cook- books, David Chilton has always had a knack for recognizing great ventures, a skill he proudly leverages as a “dragon” on CBC television’s #1 hit show, Dragons’ Den. Called “charming, unpretentious, and funny,” by The Chicago Sun-Times, David puts his business expertise and life experience to work in his informative and inspiring talks. David began his career by self-publishing his book The Wealthy Barber in 1989. It was written in 26 months, and was specifically targeted toward those with little investment experience, in order to help them develop positive personal-finance habits. The book has become one of the most popular Canadian books of all time, selling over two million copies since its release. His second book, also self-published, is The Wealthy Barber Returns, and is yet another runaway Canadian bestseller. David is also the publisher of the bestselling cookbooks Looneyspoons, Crazy Plates, and Eat, Shrink & Be Merry! (working with authors Janet and Greta Podleski). David is an economics graduate from Wilfrid Laurier University, where he won the award for the highest mark in the country on the Canadian Securities Course. He is a frequent guest on national television and radio shows.

2 Alexandre Bilodeau, Wednesday Morning Closing Keynote

Two Time Gold Olympic Medalist,

Alexandre Bilodeau wrote a page in Canadian history by becoming the first Olympian to win a gold medal on Canadian soil, and repeated his gold medal performance at the 2014 in Sochi. A model of perseverance and a source of inspiration to many, he has proved himself to be one of Cana- da’s most talented young athletes. A native of Rosemère, , Alexandre first fell in love with freestyle skiing when he watched Jean-Luc Brassard compete in . Following in the footsteps of his idol, he became the top Canadian jun- ior in freestyle at the age of just 14. His career wasn’t always tinged with glory, however. At times when many would have quit, Alexandre rolled up his sleeves and worked twice as hard to become the best ath- lete he could be. When he shares this story, he talks about the values that took him to the highest peaks of his sport. In the 2013-2014 season, the last of his career, he finished second at the first three World Cups, in Fin- land, Calgary, and . He then went on to climb the highest step of the podium at events where he had known previous success in Deer Valley, Lake Placid, and Val-St-Côme. After impressive perfor- mances in Japan and , 26-year-old Alexandre won the last World Cup event of his career in La Plagne. Alexandre now works as a professional in accounting and finance, specifically in the area of transactional services for KPMG.

3 Jim Harris, Tuesday Morning Keynote Jim Harris is one of North America’s foremost management consultants, public speakers, authors and thinkers on change and leadership. As an environmentalist he was the leader of the Green Party from 2003-2006. He has 20 years experience as a professional speaker and consultant and speaks internationally at more than 40 conferences a year on topics including innovation and creativity, customer relationship management (CRM), eLearning, creating learning organizations, environmental leadership and energy efficiency.

Julie & Colin Angus, Tuesday Afternoon Keynotes Julie and Colin have achieved many quests, bordering on the impossible, from completing the first muscle-powered journey around the world to rowing across the Atlantic Ocean through two hurricanes. While adventure, research and exploration are their primary occupations, Julie and Colin are also gifted storytellers, sharing their exploits through bestselling books, documentaries and, most intimately, on stage. They have inspired hundreds of audiences around the world from countless Fortune 500 companies to educational institutions. Together, they have written six books, produced numerous documentaries and founded a boat company. They are the parents of two young boys and are still happily exploring together after over a decade of marriage.

4 REGIONAL LOCAL GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP FORUMS

SERVICE EXCELLENCE: Delivery Efficiency & Effectiveness

8:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Grand Prairie & Lacombe - November 29 & 30, 2018

Customers want it! The public demand it! Council expects it! The budget requires it! Meanwhile, staff and elected official have some great ideas to enhance service efficiency and effectiveness. Learn the steps, use tools and share ideas to promote a culture of continuous service innovation.

This hands-on session using ‘real time’ service topics is designed for current and emerging service leaders, elected officials and managers in local, First Nation, Metis and regional governments as well as municipal corporations.

Make a leadership difference by guiding service innovation in your organization: Creating a service excellence culture Hands on implementation of a process for service reviews & evaluation Helping Council and organization to define service expectations Assessing service delivery efficiency & effectiveness Developing service adjustment strategies

Leave the session with the following to share with your colleagues: Service Inventory Template Service Review Process Flow Chart Service Delivery Expectations Checklist Service Adjustment Strategy Continuum Service Innovation Ideas from colleagues

The session will be facilitated by Dr. Gordon McIntosh who has delivered over 1,300 sessions for 140,000 civic officials throughout Canada and overseas.

How to register

Registration Fee: $275 plus GST per delegate prior to October 22, 2018 and 300.00 thereafter. Contact Linda Davies at SLGM (780) 796-3836 or [email protected] for more information.

5 Professional Development 2018

Typically, our workshop locations are found along the Highway 2 corridor for ease of travel and convenience. In partnership with BLOOM, there is still one more new workshop for 2018 scheduled in November. See the table below for complete details on the final Capital Budgeting and Planning workshop. Please contact [email protected] with any questions.

Workshops/Dates/Links Locations Member Non-Member

Capital Budgeting and Planning: Holiday Inn, Lethbridge Nov.7-9/18 New for 2018 Tim Duhamel, Presenter $1,200 $1,500

Please take note of the deadline date for room reservations for this FINAL workshop for 2018!

6 MEMO OF INVITATION:

TO HELP US PLAN OUR PD SCHEDULE FOR NEXT YEAR, HOST ONE OF OUR GFOA PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOPS IN 2019 AT YOUR MUNICIPALITY.

These workshops are designed to be as interactive as possible and are generally three days in length. Some may be customized for a 1- or 2-day format, depending on areas of interest and need, as well as availability. Workshop descriptions are available to help you decide which workshop best meets your needs.

Due to the hands-on nature of these workshops, enrollment must meet minimum number of (15) to ensure that all participants enjoy the best possible learning experience. Below is a list of workshops but not limited to:

Budget Analyst Academy…If you would like to gain a comprehensive understanding of budget model and process option to develop and tailor a high-quality budget, or Capital Budgeting & Planning ...If you have ever dealt with capital budgets, or Leadership for Municipal Professionals...If you have ever valued leadership and how leadership is defined, or Long Term Financial Planning…If you are looking to design and lead a long-term financial planning process tailored to meet the specific economic and available resources of your municipality, or Municipal Fundamentals…If you are new to municipal finance, want to advance in municipal finance, or looking to refresh your knowledge of municipal finance, or Treasury & Risk Management...If you have ever wanted to know more about risk/risk assessment, then…

We have an offer you can’t refuse. If you feel you would like to host a workshop and can bring enough registrations to meet the minimum of (15), one of these workshops could be coming to your municipality.

You are invited to join us in a unique, hands-on workshop, but do register your municipality quickly for the workshop of your choice by contacting Candace Coambs, Executive Administrator at: [email protected]. Once registered, the session can be scheduled at your convenience, or at least only restricted by the availability of the instructor.

Message brought to you by your Professional Development Task Force

7 Trade Update, Canadian Key Rates & Growth Forecast

NAFTA is done for, but behold the beauty of the USMCA, the newly minted U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal. It’s much, much better than an all-out trade war, but we expect Canadian growth to slow anyway. Other than an unrelated bump in our 2018 GDP projection, we have not altered our forecasts as a re- sult.

The USMCA removes a cloud of uncertainty hanging over Canadian business, but our existing forecast had already assumed that a preliminary deal would be reached. Had we used an alternative scenario, including huge tariffs on Canadian auto exports, we would not have been forecasting a Bank of Canada rate hike in October.

Remember that Canada is calling it a win because we did not give up much versus the existing NAFTA deal. There are a few tidbits where export opportuni- ties were opened up (sugary products, for example), but otherwise, this was about a successful run of defense, not offense, for Canada.

On the growth front, Canada’s biggest threat is simply a result of our success in reaching something close to full employment. Population growth has picked up a bit, but the underemployment of new immigrants reduces the scale of the resulting GDP benefits. Our trading partners, including the U.S., Japan, and Germany, are in an even worse position as their future growth will be ever more con- strained by the tightness of existing labour markets and the lack of a political consensus to ramp up immigration.

As we slow the housing market with gradual rate hikes and tighter mortgage rules, as well as adjust to softer workforce increases, economic growth in Canada will ease to less than 2% next year. That will be seen in most provincial growth rates (see below). A Bank of Canada judging how much to hike rates, investors looking at growth-related equities, and governments projecting revenue streams in 2019 budgets need to look past the cheer engendered by the USMCA deal at these less exciting realities.

The resolution of NAFTA, sorry USMCA, clears the way for a rate hike in October. We always anticipated a deal to be struck, so the announcement itself does not change our forecasts. Nevertheless, recent positive data points likely mean a subsequent rate hike (following an October move) will be on the way come January 2019, slightly earlier than previously expected. Following that hike, however, the Bank of Canada will likely take an extended pause before raising rates again because of Canada’s high household debt levels, which leaves the economy more sensitive to rate hikes.

Source: CIBC World Markets

Alberta

After 2017’s year-over-year oil production increase was flattened by a rebound from 2016’s Fort McMurray fire, we expected a slower pace to Alberta growth this year. However, oil pro- duction and demand has been stronger than the market originally assumed. That leaves Alberta GDP tracking higher this year than previously projected, even though new investments in the oil patch have been slow coming in due to transportation bottlenecks of Canadian crude oil.

8 Alberta’s labour market continues to advance as household earnings perked up amidst gains in the higher-earning goods sector and rotation to full-time employ- ment.

On its current trajectory, Alberta is now forecasted to stay on par with our neighbouring provinces going into 2019 with the biggest boost coming from the growth in oil production.

Currency

The slight shift in timing for Bank of Canada rate hikes should result in a somewhat stronger C$ profile than we previously envisioned over the coming six months or so. Yet, as the Bank of Canada is set to lag the U.S. Federal Reserve thereafter, the currency will likely move back to the low 1.30s by mid-2019.

Source: CIBC World Markets

Crude Oil

The price of oil has endured a wild ride since its initial collapse below $30 US/bbl. Rising global demand combined with a tightening supply has helped provide sustainability to the price rally, keeping the benchmark WTI averaging $67US/bbl. Although the macroeconomic view may be positive, we need to peel back a few layers from the price of WTI to understand the impact on this side of the border. Canadian crude oil has been trapped by our lack of infrastructure. With pipe- lines full, our oil is now limited by bottlenecks which has left the industry looking to non-traditional forms of transportation to get our oil to market. Crude-by-rail has been the transportation method of choice. Forecasts have crude-by-rail exports growing to 250,000 bbls/day this year and 390,000 bbls/day by 2019. Recent National Energy Board data shows exports of crude-by-rail breaking the 200,000 bbls/day mark for the first time in June.

The net result of the limited infrastructure has been a fall in the price of our Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude oil which trades at a discount to the price of WTI. WCS has shared in the price appreciation seen in WTI, averaging $45US/bbl at the end of July. However, with no incremental pipeline capacity coming online in the near future, the light-heavy (WTI-WCS) differential has widened and is expected to remain volatile despite rising railed volumes.

9 Sources: Bloomberg, Daily Oil Bulletin, National Energy Board, Statistics Canada, U.S. Census Bureau, BCA Research, CREB, EREB, CHBA, Alberta Treasury Board of Fi- nance, CMHC, CIBC World Markets Inc. James Hobson, CFA, PM, Investment Advisor at 403-260-0574 or 1 (800) 665-6864, Charet Chahal, CIM, Investment Advisor at 403-260-0440 This information, including any opinion, is based on various sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed and is subject to change. CIBC and CIBC World Markets Inc., their affiliates, directors, officers and employees may buy, sell, or hold a position in securities of a company mentioned herein, its affiliates or subsidiaries, and may also perform financial advisory services, investment banking or other services for, or have lending or other credit relationships with the same. CIBC World Markets Inc. and its representatives will receive sales commissions and/or a spread between bid and ask prices if you purchase, sell or hold the securities referred to above. © CIBC World Markets Inc. 2018. CIBC Wood Gundy is a division of CIBC World Markets Inc., a subsidiary of CIBC and a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. Todd Poland, James Hobson and Charet Chahal are Investment Advisors with CIBC Wood Gundy in Calgary The views of Todd Poland, James Hobson and Charet Chahal do not necessarily reflect those of CIBC World Markets Inc. If you are currently a CIBC Wood Gundy client, please contact your Investment Advisor. Clients are advised to seek advice regarding their particular circumstances from their personal tax and legal advisors.

10