POLITICAL REPORT

POLITICAL REPORT A MONTHLY POLL COMPILATION Volume 15, Issue 5 • May 2019

IN THIS ISSUE: Gearing up for 2020 (pp. 1–2) The DemocraticPOLITICAL and Republican Fields (pp. 3–5) | Candidates’ Ages REPORT (pp. 6–9) 2020: Early Interest and Enthusiasm Recent polls show higher interest in and enthusiasm about the 2020 election at this early stage than in previ- ous presidential election cycles. Fifty-two percent of registered voters told Fox News pollsters in April they are extremely interested in the election, a level of interest typically not seen until closer to Election Day. In an April CNN survey, 45 percent of registered voters said they are extremely enthusiastic about voting for president in next year’s election, the highest percentage to give that response since CNN began asking the question leading up to the 2004 presidential contest. Polls by NBC News/Wall Street Journal and ABC News/Washington Post simi- larly show high anticipationPOLITIC among registered voters. Interest and enthusiasmAL are high amongREPOR Democrats and T Republicans. Q: How interested are you in the [2008, 2012, 2016, 2020] presidential election? Are you extremely interested, very interested, somewhat interested, or not at all interested?

Extremely interested in the presidential election 2008 2012 2016 2020 Final 70 surveys Apr. 2019 60% 60 52% 54% 50 51% 40 30 20 10 Year before election Election year 0 l l t t r r r r y y v v c n n n n g g p p b b Ju Ju Ja Ja Ju Ju Oc Oc Ap Ap Se Se Fe Fe Ma Ma Au Au De Ma Ma No No

Note: Samples are registered voters. Source: Fox News, latest that of April 2019.

Interest in 2020 Election by Party Extremely interested Very Somewhat Not at all Dems. 56% 26% 14% 3% Inds. 29 32 18 16 Reps. 57 25 13 4 Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: Fox News, April 2019. (Continued on the next page)

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org (Continued from the previous page) Q: How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in next year’s election—extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?* Extremely enthusiastic about voting for president

70 2008 2012 2016 2020

60 Apr. 2019 50 45% Previous election high Nov. 2012 40 38%

30

20

10 Year before election Election year 0 l l t t r r r r n n c y v y v n n b b g p g p Ju Ju Ju Ju Ja Ja Fe Fe Ap Oc Ap Oc Ma Se De Ma Se Ma Au No Ma Au No

Note: Samples are registered voters. *Wording was “next year’s election” or “this year’s election” depending on the year of the poll. Source: CNN, latest that of April 2019.

Responses by Party, First Survey in Election Cycle Extremely enthusiastic Very Somewhat Not too Not at all Mar. 2011 Dems./Lean Dem. 26% 30% 27% 12% 5% Reps./Lean Rep. 33 31 19 10 6 Jul. 2015 Dems./Lean Dem. 18% 28% 28% 15% 11% Reps./Lean Rep. 28 27 27 9 10 Mar. 2019 Dems./Lean Dem. 43% 30% 15% 4% 6% Reps./Lean Rep. 48 21 17 8 7 Note: Samples are registered voters. Source: CNN, latest that of March 2019.

Q: Please tell me how interested you are in the 2020 elections, using a scale from one to ten, on which a “ten” means that you are very interested in the elections and a “one” means that you are not at all interested . . . . —————— 2016 —————— Apr.–May 2019 Oct. 2016* Apr. 2015 Chose pts. 9–10 69% 72% 60% Note: Samples are registered voters. *Final poll, October 10–13, 2016. Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, latest that of April–May 2019.

In an April ABC News/Washington Post survey, 85 percent of registered voters said they are absolutely certain to vote in the general election for president in 2020, a percentage comparable to those in surveys taken later in previous election cycles.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 2 Surveying the Democratic Primary Field Most Democrats have not made up their minds at this early stage about whom they will support, but they are generally satisfied with the field of candidates. Some of the candidates are not well known at this point. Of the ones who are, shown on this page and the next, impressions are favorable. Q: Which best describes how you currently feel about the Democratic field of candidates for president? Responses of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters There are one or two candidates you would rather see win the nomination over the others 39% You see the field as wide open, and it’s too early to say which candidates you might support in the end 58% Source: CNN, March 2019. In an April CNN survey, among Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters who had chosen a candidate to support for the Democratic nomination in 2020 in a general horse race question, 36 percent said they would definitely support that candidate, while 64 percent said it is possible they might change their minds.

Q: I’m going to read the names of some people who are running or might run for president in 2020. Please tell me if your general impression of each is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don’t really have an opinion. If you have not heard of the person, just let me know. Responses of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Not heard of Former Vice President 72% 16% 12% 1% Vermont Senator 65 21 13 1 Massachusetts Senator 51 19 18 12 California Senator 50 10 19 21 Former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke 43 12 22 23 New Jersey Senator 40 16 24 20 South Bend, Indiana Mayor 35 6 25 34 Minnesota Senator 27 13 28 32 Source: Monmouth University, April 2019. (Continued on the next page)

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, senior editor Murray Fallk, intern Eleanor O’Neil, editor Claude Aubert, designer

The survey results reported here were obtained in part from searches of the AEI poll archive, the iPoll Databank, and other resources provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author[s].

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 3 (Continued from the previous page)

Q: We’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people—or if you have never heard of them. Responses of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters Never Favorable Unfavorable heard of No opinion Mar. 2019 Bernie Sanders 74% 14% 6% 6% Beto O’Rourke 46 10 34 10 Cory Booker 44 11 33 11 Amy Klobuchar 25 12 49 13 12 4 71 13 11 6 70 13

Apr. 2019 Joe Biden 81% 12% 5% Pete Buttigieg 38 12 41 10 27 13 44 16 Tim Ryan 15 12 58 15 13 10 66 10 6 11 71 12 Wayne Messam 2 8 82 8 Source: CNN, March and April 2019.

Q: I am going to read a list of some potential Democratic presidential candidates. For each one, please tell me how you would feel if that person wins the Democratic Party’s nomination for president. Would you be very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? If you’ve never heard of someone, please just say so. Responses of registered voters who say they are likely to vote in the Democratic primary Satisfied if he/she wins Never heard Don’t know the nomination Dissatisfied of him/her (Vol.) Joe Biden 78% 16% 5% Bernie Sanders 75 19 2 4 Kamala Harris 61 17 14 7 Elizabeth Warren 61 22 8 9 Beto O’Rourke 53 18 18 12 Cory Booker 50 19 20 12 Pete Buttigieg 43 16 26 15 Kirsten Gillibrand 38 23 23 16 38 18 25 19 Amy Klobuchar 34 19 29 18 Note: “Very” and “Somewhat” responses combined. Source: Fox News, April 2019.

In an April 27–30 Economist/YouGov online survey, 77 percent of those who said they will vote in the Democratic primary or caucus said they are satisfied with the candidates running for the Democratic nomination; 23 percent said they wish there were more choices.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 4 Surveying Republicans on 2020 In a late April Economist/YouGov online survey, nearly eight in 10 people who said they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus in 2020 said that they are satisfied having be the only GOP candidate, while 21 percent said they wish there were more choices. Eighty-one percent of Republican registered voters in an April Quinnipiac survey said they will definitely vote for Trump for president in the general election if he is the Repub- lican candidate. Support for Trump appears less firm among all Republicans in an April ABC News/Washington Post survey, where 63 percent said they would definitely vote for Trump. Q: Are you generally satisfied with having Donald Trump be the only candidate running for the 2020 Republican nomination for president, or do you wish there were more choices? Responses of those who say they will vote in the Republican primary or caucus in 2020 Satisfied with having Trump be the only Republican candidate 79% Wish there were more choices 21 Note: Online survey. Source: Economist/YouGov, April 27–30, 2019.

Q: I am going to read a list of some potential Republican presidential candidates. For each one, please tell me how you would feel if that person wins the Republican Party’s nomination for president—would you be very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? If you’ve never heard of someone, please just say so. Responses of registered voters who say they are likely to vote in the Republican primary Satisfied if he wins Never heard Don’t know the nomination Dissatisfied of him (Vol.) Donald Trump 88% 11% 12 22 50 16 Note: “Very” and “Somewhat” responses combined. Source: Fox News, April 2019.

In a late April Quinnipiac University poll, when asked for whom they would vote in the Republican primary if the candidates were Donald Trump, Bill Weld, and Larry Hogan, 86 percent of Republican registered voters and 79 per- cent of Republican-leaning independent registered voters said they would vote for Trump.

Q: In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Q: Assuming Trump is the Republican candidate for Trump is the Republican candidate, would you . . . ? president in 2020, would you . . . ?

Responses of Republican registered voters Responses of Republicans Definitely vote for Trump 81% Definitely vote for Trump 63% Consider voting for him 13 Consider voting for him 18 Definitely not vote for him 5 Definitely not vote for him 15 Source: Quinnipiac University, April 2019. Note: Of those Republicans who said they would definitely not vote for Trump, 1 percent said they would definitely vote for the Democratic candidate, 12 percent said they were waiting to see who that is, and 2 percent said they would definitely not vote for the Democratic candidate. Source: ABC News/Washington Post, April 2019.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 5 A Candidate’s Age: How Much of a Factor? Was Franklin Roosevelt too old to be president in 1944? What about Hubert Humphrey, Ronald Reagan, Bob Dole, John McCain, and Hillary Clinton in their contests? And what about the 2020 candidates? In these pages, we explore attitudes about older and younger presidential candidates over the past several decades. The polling evidence suggests age doesn’t make much difference to most people when they are asked about actual candidates. Q: Do you think Roosevelt’s age will help or hurt him in getting elected president this year? 1944 FDR’s age will help 7% Hurt 34 No difference (Vol.) 54 Note: In-person interviews. FDR was 62 years old in August 1944. Source: Gallup, August 1944.

Q: In every campaign there are many issues and arguments raised. Will you tell me for each of the following whether you think . . . ? 1976 Hubert Humphrey is too old to be president 27% Disagree 64 Note: Humphrey was 64 years old in January 1976. Source: Yankelovich, Skelly & White/Time, January 1976.

Q: Do you agree with the following statement . . . ? 1979 Ronald Reagan is too old to be president 23% Disagree 72 Note: Reagan was 68 years old in September 1979. In their similar June 1980 question, 26 percent of registered voters said he was too old, while 70 percent said he was not. Source: Los Angeles Times, September 1979.

In an NBC News Election Day exit poll question in 1984, voters were told Reagan was 73 years old and were asked if his age influenced their vote. Sixteen percent said it did; 82 percent said it did not.

Q: At age 73, do you think . . . ? 1996 Bob Dole is too old to serve effectively as president 39% Is not 59 Source: Princeton Survey Research Associates/Newsweek, October 1996.

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AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 6 (Continued from the previous page) In the 2008 election, Barack Obama’s relative youth and the fresh ideas it could bring to the presidency seemed to give him a slight advantage over the experience and wisdom John McCain would bring. In 2015, large majori- ties did not believe Hillary Clinton was too old or that Marco Rubio was too young. Q: If elected president in 2008, Barack Obama would be 47 years old when he assumes office. Do you think . . . ? Sep. 2008 Jul.–Aug. 2008 Obama’s being 47 years old when he assumes office might make him too inexperienced to do the work the presidency requires 24% 26% His age helps him have the fresh new ideas to do a good job as president 58 53 Wouldn’t matter (Vol.) 14 16 Note: Samples are registered voters. Source: CBS News/New York Times, latest that of September 2008.

Q: If elected president in 2008, John McCain would be 72 years old when he assumes office. Do you think . . . ? Sep. 2008 Jul.–Aug. 2008 McCain’s being 72 years old when he assumes office might make it too difficult for him to do the work the presidency requires 31% 37% His age helps him have the experience and wisdom to do a good job as president 54 45 Wouldn’t matter (Vol.) 11 14 Note: Samples are registered voters. In a July 2008 survey, 36 percent said his age might make it too difficult for him and 48 percent said his age helped him to have the experience and wisdom to do a good job. Source: CBS News/New York Times, latest that of September 2008.

Q: Do you feel . . . ? 2008 John McCain is too old to be president 20% No, not too old 76 Barack Obama is too young to be president 13% No, not too young 84 Note: When Gallup asked respondents to guess the candidates’ ages, the average of all guesses was 67 for John McCain and 46 for Barack Obama. At the time, John McCain was 71 years old and Barack Obama was 46 years old. Source: Gallup/USA Today, February 2008.

Q: Does Hillary Clinton seem too old to be president? Q: Does Marco Rubio seem too young to be president? 2015 Hillary Clinton seems too old 19% Does not 79 Marco Rubio seems too young 19% Does not 67 Note: Sample is registered voters. Hillary Clinton was 67 years old in April 2015. Marco Rubio was 43 years old. These questions were not asked about any other older or younger candidates. Source: Fox News, April 2015. (Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 7 (Continued from the previous page) The earliest questions we have found about a president’s age were asked in 1939 by Gallup. When people were asked about the youngest age at which they thought a man should become president, the most frequent answer— given by 29 percent of respondents—was between 36 and 40 years old. More people (27 percent) chose the age range 61–65 as the age at which a candidate was too old than chose any other age range. When asked in 1955 about the ideal age of a candidate, 32 percent, the highest response, said between ages 50 and 54. In a 2015 question, a plurality said the best ages to be president were in a person’s 50s. Q: Generally speaking, what do you think is the young- Q: At what age do you think a man becomes too old for est age at which a man should become president of the the presidency? United States? 1939 1939 35–50 years old 4% 21–25 years 1% 51–55 years 4 26–30 years 5 56–60 years 23 31–35 years 21 61–65 years 27 36–40 years 29 66–70 years 22 41–45 years 21 71–75 years 6 46–50 years 16 76–80 years 2 51–55 years 2 Over 80 years 1 56–60 years 1 Note: In-person interviews. Note: In-person interviews. Source: Gallup, July 1939. Source: Gallup, July 1939.

Q: What do you think is the ideal age for a man to be Q: In general, what is the best age for a president of the elected president of the United States? United States . . . ? 1955 2015 Ideal age Best age 39 years or younger 10% 30s 5% 40–44 years old 11 40s 31 45–49 19 50s 46 50–54 32 60s 9 55–59 17 70s 1 60–64 10 Note: Sample is registered voters. 65 and over 1 Source: CBS News/New York Times, April–May 2015. Note: In-person interviews. Source: Gallup, September 1955.

Q: Not thinking about any specific candidates, I’m going to list several types of people who might run for president. For each one, please tell me whether that type of candidate is someone you would be enthusiastic about, be com- fortable with, have some reservations about, or be very uncomfortable with. Enthusiastic about/ Have some reservations about/ Comfortable with Very uncomfortable with 2015 A person under the age of 50 83% 16% A person over the age of 65 63 36

2019 A person under age 40 58% 40% A person over age 75 37 68 Note: 2019 responses are registered voters. Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, latest that of February 2019. (Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 8 Age and the 2020 Candidates As Campaign 2020 gets underway, pollsters are asking people about the age of various candidates. Older people are more concerned about age than are younger people in the polls below. Q: If elected president in 2020, several candidates would be 80 years old or older while president. Do you think being 80 years old or older might make it too difficult to do the work the presidency requires or do you think age helps candidates to have the experience and wisdom to do a good job as president? Responses of Responses of people ages National responses Dems. Reps. 18–29 65+ Being 80 years old or older might make it too difficult to do the work the presidency requires 40% 42% 43% 38% 42% Age helps candidates to have the experience and wisdom to do a good job as president 34 37 37 35 35 Not sure 26 21 19 27 22 Note: Online survey. Source: Economist/YouGov, March–April 2019.

Q: If elected president in 2020, several candidates would begin his or her term before reaching 40 years old. Do you think a candidate being under 40 years of age might make the candidate too inexperienced to do the work the presidency requires or do you think the candidate’s age helps him or her to have fresh new ideas to do a good job as president? Responses of Responses of people ages National responses Dems. Reps. 18–29 65+ Being under 40 years old might make the candidate too inexperienced to do the work the presidency requires 29% 14% 50% 19% 38% The candidate’s age helps him or her to have the fresh new ideas to do a good job as president 42 61 29 53 36 Not sure 29 25 21 27 25 Note: Online survey. Source: Economist/YouGov, March–April 2019.

Q: As you may know, former Vice President Joe Biden is considering a run for president in 2020. When thinking about the 2020 presidential election, do you agree or disagree with the following statements . . . ? Responses of Responses of people ages National responses (RV) Dems. Reps. 18–29 65+ Agree, Joe Biden is too old to run for president 35% 30% 28% 23% 39% Disagree 46 58 44 50 44 Note: Online survey. Sample is registered voters. For comparison, 55 percent agreed that his decades of political experience made him an effective leader, 49 percent agreed that he is out of touch with the challenges younger Americans face today, 47 percent that he could keep the Democratic Party from moving too far to the left, 36 percent that he is not progressive enough to make changes Democrats need, and 30 percent thought he was too liberal. Source: Politico/Morning Consult, April 2019.

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