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Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan of the Republic of Slovenia

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Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan of the Republic of Slovenia INTEGRATED NATIONAL ENERGY AND CLIMATE PLAN OF THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA Gregorčičeva 20–25, Sl-1001 Ljubljana T: +386 1 478 1000 F: +386 1 478 1607 E: [email protected] http://www.vlada.si/ Number: 35400-18/2019/14 Date: 27 February 2020 INTEGRATED NATIONAL ENERGY AND CLIMATE PLAN OF THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA 1 INTEGRATED NATIONAL ENERGY AND CLIMATE PLAN OF THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA Contents Contents .................................................................................................................................. 2 List of figures ........................................................................................................................... 5 List of tables ............................................................................................................................ 9 SECTION A: NATIONAL PLAN .................................................................................................. 12 1 OVERVIEW AND PROCESS FOR ESTABLISHING THE PLAN ................................................ 12 1.1 Summary ................................................................................................................ 16 1.2 Overview of current policy situation .......................................................................... 21 1.3 Consultations and cooperation of national and Union entities and their outcome ........... 24 2 NATIONAL OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................ 27 2.1 Decarbonisation Dimension ...................................................................................... 28 2.1.1 GHG emissions and removals ....................................................................... 29 2.1.2 Renewable energy ....................................................................................... 33 2.2 Energy Efficiency Dimension ..................................................................................... 46 2.2.1 National contribution to energy efficiency by 2030 ............................................ 46 2.2.2 Savings achieved under the mandatory savings scheme .................................... 48 2.2.3 Indicative milestones of the long-term renovation strategy for the national stock of residential and non-residential buildings, both public and private, a roadmap with domestically established measurable progress indicators, an evidence-based estimate of expected energy savings and wider benefits, and their contributions to the Union's energy efficiency targets under Directive 2012/27/EU in accordance with Article 2a of Directive 2010/31/EU ........................................................... 48 2.2.4 Indicative milestones for 2030, 2040 and 2050, domestically established measurable progress indicators, an evidence-based estimate of expected energy savings and wider benefits, and their contributions to the Union's energy efficiency targets as included in the roadmaps set out in the long-term renovation strategies for the national stock of residential and non-residential buildings, both public and private, in accordance with Article 2a of Directive 2010/31/EU .......................... 49 2.2.5 Overview of key assumptions for projections of contribution to energy efficiency (EEU) by 2030, including long-term goals or strategies and sectoral objectives and national objectives in areas such as energy efficiency in the transport sector and in terms of heating and cooling .......................................................................... 49 2.3 Energy Security Dimension ....................................................................................... 51 2.3.1 National objectives and contributions referred to in Article 4(c) ......................... 51 2.3.2 Other objectives and contributions referred to in Annex 1 related to the energy security dimension ......................................................................................... 54 2.4 Internal Energy Market Dimension ............................................................................ 55 2.4.1 Electricity interconnectivity .......................................................................... 55 2.4.2 Electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure .................................... 55 Sector integration ................................................................................................ 57 2.4.3 Market integration ....................................................................................... 58 2.4.4 Energy poverty ........................................................................................... 60 2.5 Research, Innovation and Competitiveness Dimension ................................................ 61 3 POLICIES AND MEASURES ............................................................................................. 64 3.1 Decarbonisation Dimension ...................................................................................... 66 3.1.1 GHG emissions and renewals ........................................................................ 66 3.1.2 Renewable energy ....................................................................................... 79 3.2 ‘Energy Efficiency’ Dimension ................................................................................... 86 2 INTEGRATED NATIONAL ENERGY AND CLIMATE PLAN OF THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA 3.2.1 Industry ..................................................................................................... 86 3.2.2 Buildings .................................................................................................... 88 3.2.3 Transport ................................................................................................... 95 3.2.4 Multi-sectoral measures for raising awareness and informing ........................ 104 3.3 Energy Security Dimension ..................................................................................... 107 3.4 Internal Energy Market Dimension .......................................................................... 108 3.5 Research, Innovation and Competitiveness Dimension .............................................. 113 SECTION B: ANALYTICAL BASIS ............................................................................................ 118 4. CURRENT SITUATION AND PROJECTIONS WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES ..... 118 4.1 Expected development of the main exogenous factors affecting the energy system and GHG emission trends ............................................................................................. 119 i. Macro-economic projections (GDP and population growth) ............................ 119 ii. Sectoral changes expected to affect the energy system and GHG emissions ... 121 iii. Global energy trends, international fossil fuel prices, carbon price in the EU ETS123 iv. Technological development costs ................................................................ 127 4.2 Decarbonisation Dimension ....................................................................................... 131 4.2.1 GHG emissions and renewals ..................................................................... 131 i. Trends of current GHG emissions and removals in EU ETS, distribution of effort and LULUCF sector and different energy sectors ................................................ 131 ii. Projections of developments in sectors with existing national policies and measures and Union policies and measures until at least 2040 (including 2030) ............ 135 4.2.2 Renewable energy ..................................................................................... 139 i. The current share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption and in different sectors (heating and cooling, electricity and transport) as well as per technology in these sectors ....................................................................... 139 ii. Indicative projections of developments with existing policies for 2030 (with outlook until 2040) ............................................................................................... 144 4.3 Energy Efficiency Dimension ................................................................................... 150 i. Current primary and final energy use in the economy and individual sectors (including industrial, residential, service and transport sectors) .................................... 150 ii. Current possibilities for using high-efficiency cogeneration and efficient district heating and cooling ................................................................................... 150 iii. Projections in terms of existing energy efficiency policies, measures and programmes for the use of primary and final energy for each sector until at least 2040 (including for 2030) ................................................................................................. 153 iv. Cost-optimal levels of minimum energy performance resulting from national calculations in accordance with Article 5 of Directive 2010/31/EU .................. 164 4.4 Energy Security Dimension ..................................................................................... 190 i. The current mix of energy sources, domestic energy sources, dependency on imports, including related risks ................................................................... 190 ii. Projected developments with existing policies and measures until at least 2040 (including 2030) and with additional NEPN policies and measures ................. 199
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