Larsen & Toubro

RESULT UPDATE

LARSEN & TOUBRO Operationally sound; improved conviction on earnings

India Equity Research| Engineering and Capital Goods

EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS L&T reported better than expected revenue and margins during Q2FY14 led by improvement in domestic execution and better margins in key Absolute Rating BUY verticals (infrastructure and power) on a YoY basis. Key highlights were: Rating Relative to Sector Outperformer 1) Domestic revenues grew 4 % YoY after 3 quarters of de-growth; 2) Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium Infrastructure margins improved 90bps YoY in Q2FY14 and 70bps in Sector Relative to Market Underweight H1FY14 led by strong execution growth; 3) Order intake strong at 27 % for

Q2FY14 and H1FY14; 4) Sharp rise in other opex at 52% YoY led by INR2bn MARKET DATA (R: LART.BO, B: LT IN) MTM forex loss, while other income rose sharply (up 36% YoY) and led by CMP : INR 872 higher dividend from subsidiaries and 5) L&T maintained 15 % revenue Target Price : INR 1,060 growth and 20 % order intake guidance with flattish margins. We upgrade 52-week range (INR) : 1,147 / 677 our earnings by 4% each for FY14E and FY15E respectively, building in Share in issue (mn) : 925.3 better than expected revenues and margins. We maintain our `BUY’ M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 807/ 12,680 rating with a revised TP of INR 1061(INR 1023 earlier). Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 2,630.6

Uptick in domestic execution and intact guidance, key positives SHARE HOLDING PATTER N (%)

Led by strong recovery in domestic infrastructure segment revenues (up 39 % YoY), Current Q1FY14 Q4FY13 which offset the de-growth in most other segments, L&T posted a 4% YoY growth in Promoters * - - - domestic revenues after 3 quarters of negative growth. This was in line with our MF's, FI's & BK’s 37.4 36.9 36.3 expectations. Also, L&T posted better than expected margins led by stable earnings in FII's 15.3 16.0 16.6 core infrastructure segment, which we believe are key to management guidance. Others 47.4 47.2 47.1 * Promoters pledged shares : NIL (% of share in issue) Stable outlook in core business leads to higher growth conviction

The management attributed the strong growth in core infrastructure segment to PRIC E PERFORMANCE (%) healthy execution in urban infra, transportation, water, and T&D segments. While, we EW expect ~14% domestic revenue growth in H2FY14E, we upgrade our revenue and Stock Nifty Construction Index margin assumptions building in higher Q2FY14 export revenues and improved outlook on execution and OPMs. 1 month 4.8 4.5 (5.1) 3 months (11.9) 1.7 (0.1) Outlook and valuations: Positive; maintain ‘BUY’ 12 months (20.3) 7.7 19.4

We retain our conviction on L&T as a top pick in industrial space given sustained core business profitability, strong revenue growth visibility and strong balance sheet. We continue to maintain that gradual recovery prospects in domestic execution remains key to stable margins going ahead. We maintain our ` BUY/SO’ rating for L&T with a revised TP of INR 1060 (versus INR 1023 earlier). Amit Mahawar Financials (Standalone) +91 22 4040 7451

Year to March Q2FY14 Q2FY13 % change Q1FY14 % change FY13 FY14E FY15E [email protected]

Net rev. (INR bn) 145.1 132.0 10.0 125.6 15.6 608.7 674.4 763.0 Rahul Gajare EBITDA (INR bn) 14.0 14.1 (0.3) 10.7 30.8 64.1 66.8 75.4 +91 22 4063 5561 Adj. net profit (INR bn) 9.8 9.1 7.1 7.6 29.3 46.6 44.8 51.2 [email protected]

Diluted EPS (INR) 10.6 9.9 7.2 8.2 29.3 50.1 48.2 55.1 Swarnim Maheshwari Diluted P/E (x) 17.4 18.1 15.8 +91 22 4040 7418 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 12.9 12.6 11.3

ROAE (%) 17.2 14.5 14.9 October 18, 2013 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL , Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited

Engineering and Capital Goods

Concall highlights: • Order intake, OB growth driven by transportation and hydrocarbon: L&T reported a strong 27% YoY growth in order intake to INR265bn, led by large value intake in transportation (Riyadh metro) and hydrocarbons (mainly from Middle East).

• Forex loss at INR2.0bn versus INR0.3bn; Of the total forex loss of INR2.0bn in Q2FY14, INR 1.0bn was due MTM loss on USD loan, while the balance was operational.

• Higher dividend adds to higher other income: Dividend of INR2.29bn in Q2FY14 versus INR0.6bn in Q2FY13 led to sharp 36% YoY rise in other income.

• Hydrocarbon business update: L&T will de-merge hydrocarbon business going ahead post approvals, however no time-line has been set for the same.

• Key balance sheet highlights: There is a sustained pressure in net working capital which increased from 17.3% to 18.2% on a QoQ basis.

• Slow moving orders at 3 % of OB- Excluding GVK & GMR orders, slow moving orders account for only 3 % of L&T order book of INR1760bn (up 11 % YoY).

• H2FY14E Orders driven by hydrocarbon and infrastructure - L&T is betting on projects like Doha Metro, Etihad Metro-II, airport projects etc in H2 for order intake growth. The company is also bidding for several hydrocarbon jobs in Middle East which is expected to be awarded in H2FY14E.

• Customer advances on decline: Led by weak business cycle, L&T has seen a decline in customer advance as customers are negotiating lower advance levels versus historically, which is adding to working capital woes.

• Huge INR2bn loss in ship-building in Q2FY14: L&T has reported INR2.0bn loss in Ship- building (Katupalli and Parent company) in Q2FY14 led by higher import component and inventory write down.

Table 1: Asking rate for H2FY14E Asking Asking rate As per H2FY14E rate wrt wrt to Particulars H2FY13 company's (Edel est.) to Edel Company's guidance estimates guidance Revenue 403,749 357,232 13.0 429,397 20.2 EBITDA margins (%) 10.4 11.0 11.4 Order intake 458 468 (2.1) 535 14.3

Table 2: Geographical break up Geography H1FY14 H1FY13 % change H2FY14E H2FY13 % change Domestic 200,278 203,946 (1.8) 317,644 279,614 13.6 Exports 70,368 47,570 47.9 86,106 77,618 10.9 Source: Company, Edelweiss research

2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Larsen & Toubro

Key segmental highlights

1) Infrastructure (B&F, Transportation Infra, Heavy Civil Infra, Water, Power T&D) A) Revenue – The segment registered a sharp 36% growth led by 38% growth in the domestic business and 26% growth in the infra business. The company witnessed strong growth in Urban infra, Transportation Infra, Power T&D, and Water on the back of robust opening Order book. B) EBITDA – The segment registered a very impressive 90bps improvement in the margins to 13.3% on the back of better job mix and execution efficiency. C) Capital Employed – The Capital Employed increase mainly due to higher NWC.

Table 3: Infra P&L % change % change Infrastructure Q2FY14 Q2FY13 H1FY14 H1FY13 FY13 (YoY) (YoY) Revenue 71,490 52,500 36.2 123,340 94,620 30.4 277,850 Domestic 59,750 43,170 38.4 103,250 77,700 32.9 232,890 International 11,740 9,330 25.8 20,090 16,920 18.7 44,960 EBITDA 9,490 6,490 46.2 15,620 11,330 37.9 31,670 EBITDA margins (%) 13.3 12.4 12.7 12.0 11.4 Capital Employed 102,060 72,440 40.89 81,920 Source: Company, Edelweiss research

2) Hydrocarbon (upstream, downstream, Construction & pipelines) A) Revenue – The segment saw a 9% decline in the revenues mainly due to 34% decline in its domestic business. Order intake and the order book also declined in the quarter indicating near term weakness in the revenues. B) EBITDA – Margins improved by 50bps YoY to 10% indicating better exports margins. Also there was some MTM forex loss in the segment. C) Capital Employed – The Capital Employed spike due to WIP pending invoicing.

3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Engineering and Capital Goods

Table 4: Hydrocarbons P&L % change % change Hydrocarbons Q2FY14 Q2FY13 H1FY14 H1FY13 FY13 (YoY) (YoY) Revenue 22,310 24,480 (8.9) 49,870 46,800 6.6 95,400 Domestic 8,720 13,230 (34.1) 17,860 29,170 (38.8) 48,540 International 13,590 11,250 20.8 32,010 17,630 81.6 46,860 EBITDA 2,220 2,330 (4.7) 4,050 4,370 (7.3) 9,630 EBITDA margins (%) 10.0 9.5 8.1 9.3 10.1 Capital Employed 22,340 15,160 47.36 10,900 Source: Company, Edelweiss research

3) Power ( EPC and BOP of Thermal based power plants) A) Revenue – The segment registered a sharp 40% decline in the revenues mainly due the sectoral bottleneck of coal and gas supply issues. Company is placed L1 in INR 50bn project (2x660MW) in MP. B) EBITDA – However, margins improved due to better job mix. C) Capital Employed – The Capital Employed dropped sharply due to decline in NWC.

Table 5: Power P&L % change % change Power Q2FY14 Q2FY13 H1FY14 H1FY13 FY13 (YoY) (YoY) Revenue 11,810 19,670 (40.0) 24,550 42,480 (42.2) 80,570 EBITDA 1,583 1,967 (19.5) 2,680 3,650 (26.6) 6,360 EBITDA margins (%) 13.4 10.0 10.9 8.9 7.9 Capital Employed 940 7,930 (88.15) 6,740 Source: Company, Edelweiss research

4) Metallurgical & Material Handling (Ferrous, Non Ferrous, Bulk Material handling) A) Revenue – Process segment revenues continues to decline for the last 2-3 consecutive orders mainly due to depleted Order book and pending customer clearances. . B) EBITDA – Margins declined by 60bps YoY due to lower utilisation levels. C) Capital Employed – The Capital Employed increase is mainly due to fall in Customer advances due to depressed Investment momentum.

4 Edelweiss Securities Limited Larsen & Toubro

Table 6: Metallurgical & Material Handling P&L % change % change MMH/Process Q2FY14 Q2FY13 H1FY14 H1FY13 FY13 (YoY) (YoY) Revenue 10,690 13,220 (19.1) 20,840 25,420 (18.0) 58,520 Domestic 10,470 13,190 (20.6) 20,220 25,330 (20.2) 58,010 International 220 30 633.3 620 90 588.9 510 EBITDA 1,700 2,200 (22.7) 3,300 3,780 (12.7) 10,350 EBITDA margins (%) 15.9 16.6 15.8 14.9 17.7 Capital Employed 27,590 22,480 22.73 26,002 Source: Company, Edelweiss research

Chart 1: Domestic & export revenue growth trend 159 24.0

Urban Infra, Transportation infra, Water business and 119 16.0 power T&D business led to 4% increase in the domestic 79 8.0 revenue growth. (%) (%) 39 -

(1) (8.0)

(41) (16.0) Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214

Exports growth (LHS) Domestic growth (RHS)

Chart 2: Revenue visibility maintained for the next 2.5 years 750 3.0

600 2.6

450 2.3 (x)

(INR bn) (INR 300 1.9

150 1.6

0 1.2 2QFY08 4QFY08 2QFY09 4QFY09 2QFY10 4QFY10 2QFY11 4QFY11 2QFY12 4QFY12 2QFY13 4QFY13 2QFY14 Sales OB/NS (X)

Source: Company, Edelweiss research

5 Edelweiss Securities Limited Engineering and Capital Goods

Chart 3: Net working capital hovering around 15-20% as a % of sales 20.0

Working capital to sales 16.0 increased from 17.3% in Q1FY14 to 18.2% in Q2FY14 12.0 primarily on account of decline (%) in customer advances and 8.0 increase in the infra revenues 4.0

0.0 Q1FY10 Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 NWC as a % of sales

Source: Company, Edelweiss research

6 Edelweiss Securities Limited Larsen & Toubro

Table 7: Bottoms up analysis of L&T’s order intake (All figures in INR bn) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Comments Process 78 53 35 39 50 Expect spending to pick up only from FY16E. Power 60 137 169 186 195 BoP/Gas/EPC etc 60 102 101 100 109 While we don’t expect any gas based projects, we expect decent traction in BOP and EPC based projects. BTG - 35 69 86 86 We have assumed 4 sets in FY14E and 5 sets each in FY15E & FY16E of 660MW respectively on the back of ordering from SEB's and other central utilities in the next 2 years. Hydrocarbons 78 88 125 146 161 India 15 24 48 58 63 Expect growth to double in FY14E & FY15E on the back of strong domestic CAPEX led by RIL , ONGC , BPCL etc. We have not build any orders from fertlizer sector . Exports 63 64 77 88 97 Jazan refinery (Saudi Aramco), Sohar refinery (Oman Refineries), clean fuel project (KNPC) , Sitra refinery expansion (BAPCO) etc. Infrastructure 412 537 559 597 656 T&D- Middle East 50 58 64 70 77 We expect growth momentum to sustain on the back of improved focus of L&T in key marketrs like Qatar/Oman/Abu Dhabi. T&D- India 38 68 71 75 82 We expect flat growth given muted ordering by PGCIL & SEB's. Growth is expected to pick up only from FY16E. Factories & Buildings 38 57 49 54 59 We expect growth momentum to decline in F&B due to saturation in (Residential ) tier1 markets. We believe FY15E to be driven by Tier 2 cities given L&T's incremental focus. Factories & Buildings 113 172 146 153 169 We expect FY14E to drop given limited visibility in the commerical (Commercial/IT park/ and industrial segment. FY15E growth to be driven by demand Industrials) improvement. Transportation/Urban 24 41 123 135 149 Strong traction in DFCC and metro projects to drive FY14E-15E Infra (India) growth Transportation/Urban 24 20 110 83 62 Strong metro capex pipeline in GCC region to drive growth. FY14E- Infra (Middle East) 15E growth driven by Doha, Etihad & Qatar metro Roads 65 100 70 75 83 FY14E orders mainly from Middle East, L&T is already L1 in 20 bn road projects. Domestic road EPC project awards to only pick up from FY15E Water 25 16 21 25 27 L&T has shown good traction in municipality orders in the last 12 months and we expect this segment to do well in coming years, given strong project award pipeline. Developmental Projects 60 25 15 10 10 We expect L&T to go slow in new development projects Others 63 79 84 86 92 Expect inreased ordering from shipbuilding and defence . TOTAL 706 880 973 1,055 1,156 Source: Company, Edelweiss research

7 Edelweiss Securities Limited Engineering and Capital Goods

Chart 4: EBITDA & EBITDA margin movement 30,000 17.0

EBIDTA margins dropped 90 bps 24,000 15.0 YoY, due to higher staff costs (up 100 bps, YoY), due to headcount 18,000 13.0 additions and salary hikes (%)

(INR mn) (INR 12,000 11.0

6,000 9.0

0 7.0 4QFY08 2QFY09 4QFY09 2QFY10 4QFY10 2QFY11 4QFY11 2QFY12 4QFY12 2QFY13 4QFY13 2QFY14

EBITDA EBITDA margins

Chart 5: Vertical wise order book break up – Infra now forms more than ~2/3 rd of the current order book 2QFY14 2QFY13 Others Process Others Process 4% 7% 9% Oil & Gas 13% 6% Oil & Gas Power 9% 9%

Infra 49% Power 25% Infra 69%

Source: Company, Edelweiss research

Table 8: SOTP valuation Valuation L&T's Value Per share Multiple Remark methodology stake (%) (INR mn) (INR) L&T Parent PE 15.2 100 703,485 760 Assigning 20% discount to avg FY05-13 PE on FY15 EPS (Ex dividend from subsidairies) L&T MHI (BTG JVs) DCF - 51 60,914 33 DCF basis L&T Infotech PER 10.0 100 77,868 84 In line with other mid cap IT companies L&T Finance Holdings 82 75,359 82 20% discount to market cap L&T IDPL P/BV 1.0 100 65,719 71 1.0x book Hyderabad Metro DCF 100 (6,375) (7) DCF basis L&T Forging P/BV 1.0 76 5,400 4 1x equity invested L&T Shipbuilding P/BV 1.0 97 8,440 9 1x equity invested L&T Power Development P/BV 1.0 100 18,000 19 1x equity invested L&T Realty ltd. P/BV 1.0 100 4,716 5 1x equity invested Total 1,013,526 1,060 Source: Edelweiss research

8 Edelweiss Securities Limited Larsen & Toubro

Financial (INR mn) Year to March Q2FY14 Q2FY13 % change Q1FY14 % change YTD14 FY14E FY15E Net revenues 145,095 131,952 10.0 125,551 15.6 270,646 674,395 763,045 Staff costs 15,793 13,006 21.4 11,688 35.1 27,481 50,774 57,577 Direct costs 107,297 99,647 7.7 97,492 10.1 204,789 532,957 603,045 Total expenditure 131,078 117,900 11.2 114,836 14.1 245,914 607,645 687,681 EBITDA 14,017 14,053 (0.3) 10,715 30.8 24,732 66,750 75,364 Depreciation 2,164 2,040 6.1 2,103 2.9 4,266 8,960 9,650 EBIT 11,853 12,013 (1.3) 8,612 37.6 20,465 57,790 65,714 Other income 4,494 3,294 36.4 4,726 (4.9) 9,220 15,218 16,661 Interest 2,428 2,350 3.3 2,453 (1.0) 4,880 10,347 10,717 Profit before tax 13,920 12,957 7.4 10,885 27.9 24,805 62,661 71,658 Tax 4,145 3,827 8.3 3,325 24.7 7,470 17,858 20,423 Core profit 9,775 9,130 7.1 7,560 29.3 17,335 44,803 51,235 Extraordinary items - 2,663 - - - - - Net profit 9,775 11,793 (17.1) 7,560 29.3 17,335 44,803 51,235 Adjusted net profit 9,775 9,130 7.1 7,560 29.3 17,335 44,803 51,235 Equity capital (FV INR 2) 1,233 1,234 1,233 1,233 1,233 1,233 No. of shares (mn) 924 926 924 924 924 924 Diluted EPS (INR) 10.6 9.9 7.2 8.2 29.3 18.8 48.2 55.1

As % of net revenues Direct costs 73.9 75.5 77.7 75.7 79.0 79.0 Employee cost 10.9 9.9 9.3 10.2 7.5 7.5 Other operating expenses 5.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 3.5 3.5 EBITDA 9.7 10.6 8.5 9.1 9.9 9.9 Adjusted net profit 6.7 6.9 6.0 6.4 6.6 6.7 Tax rate 29.8 29.5 30.5 30.1 28.5 28.5

Change in estimates (SA) FY14E FY15E New Old % change New Old % change Comments Net Revenue 674,395 659,987 2.2 763,045 745,581 2.3 Led by better than expected exports revenue growth. EBITDA 75,364 64,239 3.9 75,364 72,321 4.2 EBITDA Margin 9.9 9.7 9.9 9.7 Due to increase in revenues. Core profit 44,803 43,305 3.5 51,235 49,334 3.9 PAT Margin 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.6 Capex 9,042 9,042 0.0 10,100 10,100 0.0

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Company Description L&T, headquartered in Mumbai, is a technology-driven engineering and Construction Company, and one of the largest companies in India’s private sector. It has additional interests in manufacturing, services, and information technology. A strong customer- focused approach and constant quest for top-class quality has enabled the company attain and sustain leadership in major lines of businesses over seven decades. L&T has international presence with a global spread of offices. With factories and offices located around the country, further supplemented by a wide marketing and distribution network, L&T’s image and equity extend to virtually every district of India. L&T’s recent focus on export market will help the company optimise its growth potential especially in Hydrocarbons & Infrastructure.

Investment Theme Bot Bottoms-up review imparts conviction despite top-down concerns We have analyzed more than INR806bn worth of L&T’s domestic orders and factored in delays therein in the backdrop of the sluggish GDP growth and its impact on the company. Having factored potential delays post our appraisal, we remain confident on our revised growth assumptions for L&T and do not for-see material down-side.

Diversified business dominance imparts unique flexibility: L&T has a dominant position and market share in most operating verticals, be it oil & gas, process projects, roads, bridges, or industrial structures. This imparts flexibility to cherry-pick projects across a wide range of projects and thus helps optimize overall business profitability.

Transportation & Hydrocarbon to drive future growth: Strong projects pipeline over 2-3 years both in India and Middle East in verticals like Hydrocarbons and Transportation augurs well for L&T. The company is set to see more than 30-35 % of FY14E-15E intake from these verticals.

Key Risks Economy slowdown: Any further weakness in domestic investment could impact our current growth assumptions and thus pose a down-side risk.

Raw material costs and execution risks: While L&T builds in cushion against material price movement and provisions for execution delays, the business profitability is exposed to sharp variations in key raw material which could have an adverse impact on project cost estimates and hence on profitability. Also, higher than expected delay in project execution might impact profitability, especially in fixed price projects.

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Financial Statements (Standalone) Key assumptions Income statement (Standalone) (INR mn) FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Macros Income from operations 608,733 674,395 763,045 877,568 GDP(Y-o-Y %) 5.0 4.8 6.0 6.5 Direct costs 479,524 532,957 603,045 693,518 Inflation (Avg) 7.4 6.0 6.0 6.0 Employee costs 44,363 50,774 57,577 64,688 Repo rate (exit rate) 7.5 7.8 7.0 6.0 Other expenses 20,775 23,915 27,058 31,119 USD/INR (Avg) 54.5 62.0 60.0 60.0 Total operating expenses 544,662 607,645 687,681 789,326 Key financial assumptions EBITDA 64,071 66,750 75,364 88,242 Revenue growth geography wise (%) Depreciation and amort. 8,185 8,960 9,650 11,149 Domestic growth 3.8 6.4 10.9 15.1 EBIT 55,886 57,790 65,714 77,092 Exports growth 95.0 29.2 20.6 14.8 Interest expenses 9,824 10,347 10,717 11,361 Revenue growth vertical wise (%) Other income 18,509 15,218 16,661 18,040 A) Process (19.1) (0.3) 12.8 Profit before tax 64,571 62,661 71,658 83,771 B) Oil & Gas 3.9 2.0 27.5 Provision for tax 17,940 17,858 20,423 23,875 C) Power (18.2) 21.8 20.6 Core Profit 46,631 44,803 51,235 59,896 D) Infra 27.0 10.4 12.7 Extraord. items/Excep. items 2,476 - - - E) Others 14.7 10.7 11.0 Profit after tax 49,107 44,803 51,235 59,896 Order inflow growth vertical wise (%) Adjusted net profit 46,631 44,803 51,235 59,896 A) Process (32.0) (33.0) 10.0 30.0 Basic shares outstanding (mn) 924 924 924 924 B) Oil & Gas 13.4 42.0 17.0 10.0 EPS (INR) basic 50.5 48.5 55.4 64.8 C) Power 129.2 22.8 10.0 5.0 Diluted equity shares (mn) 930 930 930 930 D) Infra 22.3 7.1 6.8 10.0 EPS (INR) fully diluted 50.1 48.2 55.1 64.4 E) Others 24.7 6.5 3.0 5.5 Core EPS 49.4 43.3 49.8 58.6 Margins geography wise (%) CEPS (INR) 59.3 58.2 65.9 76.9 Domestic 11.0 10.3 10.3 10.6 Dividend per share 12.3 12.3 16.3 20.3 Exports 8.8 7.5 7.5 7.5 Dividend payout (%) 24.6 25.6 29.6 31.6 Excise duty as a % of sales 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 20.0% 22.3% 23.6% 23.9% Total no. of employees 54,093 56,797 59,637 63,812 Common size metrics- as % of net revenues Empl. cost per head (INR mn) 0.82 0.89 0.97 1.01 Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Depriciation as a % of FA 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.5 Direct cost 78.8 79.0 79.0 79.0 Net borrowings (INR mn) (5,595) 8,500 8,500 6,500 Employee expenses 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.4 Tax rate (%) 24.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 S G &A expenses 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 Capex (INR mn) 11,920 9,042 10,100 10,100 Operating expenses 89.5 90.1 90.1 89.9 Depreciation & amortization 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Customer adv. (as a % of OI) 13.7 13.0 13.0 13.0 Interest expenditure 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 EBITDA margins 10.5 9.9 9.9 10.1

EBIT margins 9.2 8.6 8.6 8.8

Core net profit margins 7.7 6.6 6.7 6.8

Growth metrics (%)

Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Revenues 14.5 10.8 13.1 15.0

EBITDA 1.4 4.2 12.9 17.1

PBT 3.2 (3.0) 14.4 16.9 Core net profit 5.9 (3.9) 14.4 16.9 EPS 5.4 (3.9) 14.4 16.9

Core EPS 5.6 (12.2) 14.9 17.7

11 Edelweiss Securities Limited Engineering and Capital Goods

Balance sheet (INR mn) Profitability & liquidity ratios As on 31st March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Equity capital 1,231 1,231 1,231 1,231 ROAE (%) (on adjusted profits) 17.2 14.5 14.9 15.7 Reserves & surplus 290,196 323,601 359,741 400,846 ROACE (%) 18.1 16.4 16.6 17.5 Shareholders funds 291,427 324,832 360,972 402,076 Inventory days 15 16 16 16 Long term borrowings 77,731 85,231 92,731 98,731 Debtors days 124 135 138 137 Short term borrowings 15,632 16,632 17,632 18,132 Payable days 233 229 228 223 Loan funds 93,362 101,862 110,362 116,862 Cash conversion cycle (94) (78) (75) (70) Deferred tax liability/asset 2,422 2,422 2,422 2,422 Current ratio 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Sources of funds 387,212 429,117 473,757 521,361 Debt/EBITDA 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 Tangible assets 84,023 84,005 84,355 83,205 Interest coverage 5.7 5.6 6.1 6.8 Intangible assets 770 770 770 770 Fixed assets t/o (x) 7.0 7.5 8.5 9.8 CWIP (incl. intangible) 4,911 5,011 5,111 5,211 Debt/equity 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Total net fixed assets 89,703 89,785 90,235 89,186 Adjusted debt/Equity 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Non current investments 105,227 120,227 135,227 150,227 Current investments 55,807 55,807 55,807 55,807 Operating ratios Inventories 20,642 24,823 28,087 32,301 Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Sundry debtors 226,130 271,439 305,002 355,651 Total asset turnover 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Cash and equivalents 14,947 12,842 12,181 16,216 Fixed asset turnover 7.0 7.5 8.5 9.8 Loans and advances 91,630 105,375 126,450 139,094 Equity turnover 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 Other current assets 117,657 129,422 142,365 156,601 Total current assets (ex cash) 456,059 531,059 601,903 683,647 Valuation parameters Sundry creditors and others 310,833 356,906 397,898 450,024 Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Provisions 23,697 23,697 23,697 23,697 Diluted EPS (INR) 50.1 48.2 55.1 64.4 Total CL & provisions 334,531 380,604 421,596 473,721 Y-o-Y growth (%) 5.4 (3.9) 14.4 16.9 Net current assets 121,528 150,455 180,308 209,926 CEPS 59.3 58.2 65.9 76.9 Uses of funds 387,212 429,117 473,757 521,361 Diluted P/E ( x) 17.4 18.1 15.8 13.5 Adjusted BV per share (INR) 315.3 351.5 390.6 435.1 Price/BV (x) 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.0 -1 0 0 EV/Sales (x) 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.1 Free cash flow 145,226 174,152 204,005 EV/EBITDA (X) 12.9 12.6 11.3 0.5 Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.4 1.9 2.3 Net profit 49,107 44,803 51,235 59,896 Depreciation 8,185 8,960 9,650 11,149 Others (5,591) 6,574 6,977 7,398 Gross cash flow 51,700 60,337 67,864 78,446 Less:Changes in WC 30,556 28,927 29,852 29,619 Operating cash flow 21,145 31,410 38,011 48,827 Less: Capex 11,920 9,042 10,100 10,100 Free cash flow 9,224 22,368 27,911 38,727

Cash flow metrices Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Operating cash flow 21,145 31,410 38,011 48,827 Financing cash flow (29,903) (9,470) (13,573) (19,692) Investing cash flow 4,649 (24,042) (25,100) (25,100) Net cash flow (4,109) (2,101) (662) 4,035 Capex (11,920) (9,042) (10,100) (10,100)

Dividends paid (1,018) (11,398) (15,095) (18,792)

12 Edelweiss Securities Limited Larsen & Toubro

Financial Statements (Consolidated)

Income statement (INR mn) Balance sheet (INR mn) Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E As on 31st March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Income from operations 744,980 826,927 946,960 1,097,277 Equity capital 1,231 1,231 1,231 1,231 Direct costs 546,930 609,630 698,492 816,415 Reserves & surplus 337,366 374,572 419,827 476,012 Employee costs 62,242 70,406 80,668 88,023 Shareholders funds 338,597 375,803 421,058 477,243 Other Expenses 37,217 40,241 45,304 48,057 Minority interest (BS) 26,529 27,390 28,407 29,634 Total operating expenses 646,388 720,276 824,465 952,496 Short term debt 145,936 155,936 165,936 175,936 EBITDA 98,592 106,650 122,495 144,781 Long term debt 474,002 594,002 694,002 794,002 Depreciation & Amortization 16,371 20,489 21,614 22,739 Borrowings 619,937 749,937 859,937 969,937 EBIT 82,221 86,162 100,881 122,043 Deferred tax liability 39,540 39,540 39,540 39,540 Other income 10,959 10,749 11,036 10,968 Sources of funds 1,026,439 1,194,506 1,350,779 1,518,191 Interest expenses 20,950 26,028 28,173 32,023 Tangible assets 210,947 215,034 218,021 219,908 Profit before tax 72,231 70,883 83,745 100,988 Intangible assets 74,529 70,454 66,353 62,228 Provision for tax 23,920 23,037 27,217 32,821 CWIP (incl. intangible) 110,675 112,175 113,175 114,175 Net profit 48,311 47,846 56,528 68,167 Total net fixed assets 396,151 397,662 397,548 396,311 Extraordinary income/ (loss) 4,084 - - - Goodwill on consolidation 21,198 21,198 21,198 21,198 Profit After Tax 52,395 47,846 56,528 68,167 Non current investments 12,630 12,630 12,630 12,630 Minority interest 722 861 1,018 1,227 Current Investments 75,046 75,046 75,046 75,046 Share in profit of associates 384 514 552 593 Cash and equivalents 35,715 38,099 41,126 40,403 Profit after minority interest 52,057 47,499 56,063 67,533 Inventories 51,695 56,787 65,065 76,050 Shares outstanding (mn) 930 930 930 930 Sundry debtors 230,149 272,318 312,013 346,667 Diluted EPS (INR) 51.6 51.1 60.3 72.6 Loans and advances 404,544 501,454 621,746 796,099 Dividend per share (INR) 10.5 11.1 11.6 12.2 Other current assets 201,982 222,180 255,507 281,058 Dividend payout (%) 20.3 21.5 19.2 16.7 Total current assets (ex cash) 888,370 1,052,740 1,254,331 1,499,873 Sundry creditors and others 373,840 392,575 440,292 515,920

Common size metrics Provisions 28,830 10,293 10,807 11,348 Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Total current liabilities & 402,669 402,868 451,099 527,268 Operating expenses 86.8 87.1 87.1 86.8 Net current assets (ex cash) 485,701 649,873 803,232 972,606 EBITDA margins 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.2 Net Deferred tax 1,837 1,837 1,837 1,837 Net profit margins 6.5 5.8 6.0 6.2 Uses of funds 1,026,439 1,194,506 1,350,779 1,518,191 Book value per share (INR) 366.4 406.6 455.6 516.4

Growth ratios (%)

Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Free cash flow (INR mn) Revenues 15.8 11.0 14.5 15.9 Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E EBITDA 11.0 8.2 14.9 18.2 Net profit 52,057 47,499 56,063 67,533 PBT 3.5 (1.0) 18.0 20.5 Depreciation 16,371 20,489 21,614 22,739 Net profit 3.0 (1.0) 18.0 20.5 Others (50,009) (53,116) (70,816) (116,760) Gross cash flow 18,419 14,871 6,860 (26,489)

Less: Changes in WC 56,020 84,167 53,353 19,364 Operating cash flow (37,601) (69,296) (46,493) (45,852) Less: Capex 74,378 22,000 21,500 21,501 Free cash flow (111,979) (91,296) (67,993) (67,353)

13 Edelweiss Securities Limited Engineering and Capital Goods

Cash flow metrics Operating ratios Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Operating cash flow (37,601) (69,296) (46,493) (45,852) Total asset turnover 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 Investing cash flow (69,115) (22,000) (21,500) (21,501) Fixed asset turnover 5.7 7.4 8.4 9.7 Financing cash flow 107,807 93,680 71,020 66,629 Equity turnover 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 Net cash flow 1,091 2,384 3,027 (724)

Capex (74,378) (22,000) (21,500) (21,501) Valuation parameters Dividends paid (9,803) (10,293) (10,807) (11,348) Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Diluted EPS (INR) 51.6 51.1 60.3 72.6

Profitability & efficiency ratios Y-o-Y growth (%) 3.0 (1.0) 18.0 20.5 Year to March FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E CEPS (INR) 69.8 73.6 84.0 97.7 ROAE (%) 15.2 13.3 14.1 15.0 Diluted PE (x) 16.9 17.1 14.5 12.0 ROACE (%) 9.0 7.8 8.0 8.6 Price/BV (x) 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 Inventory day 31 32 32 32 EV/Sales (x) 1.9 1.9 1.7 0.9 Debtors days 106 111 113 110 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.4 6.2 6.3 6.1 Payable days 119 118 116 116 Dividend yield (%) 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4

Cash conversion cycle (days) 19 25 29 25 Current ratio 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.8 Interest coverage 3.9 3.3 3.6 3.8

Pe er comparison valuation Market cap Diluted PE (X) Price/BV (X) ROAE (%) Name (USD mn) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E Larsen & Toubro 12,680 17.1 14.5 2.1 1.9 13.3 14.1 BGR Energy 133 6.6 5.7 0.6 0.6 9.9 10.8 Bharat Heavy Electricals 5,882 8.7 11.4 1.1 1.1 13.2 9.4 Thermax 1,185 22.1 19.1 3.5 3.1 16.6 17.2 Median - 12.9 12.9 1.6 1.5 13.2 12.4 AVERAGE - 13.6 12.7 1.8 1.7 13.2 12.9 Source: Edelweiss research

14 Edelweiss Securities Limited Larsen & Toubro

Additional Data

Directors Data AM Naik Group Executive Chairman K Venkataramanan Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer S N Subrahmanyan Whole Time Director & Senior Executive Vice President Shailendra Roy Whole Time Director & Senior Executive Vice President N Mohan Raj Nominee Director – LIC Vikram Singh Mehta Non Executive Director M V Kotwal Whole Time Director & President R Shankar Raman Whole Time Director and Chief Financial Officer M M Chitale Non Executive Director AK Jain Nominee Director - SUUTI S Rajgopal Non Executive Director S N Talwar Non Executive Director M Damodaran Non Executive Director Subodh Bhargava Non Executive Director

Sushobhan Sarker Nominee Director – LIC

Auditors - - M/s Sharp & Tannan *as per last annual report

Holding – Top10 Perc. Holding Perc. Holding Life insurance corp 17.1 L&t employ welfare f 12.06 Unit trust of india 8.21 General insurance co 2.04 Hdfc asset managemen 1.69 New india assurance 1.09 Jpmorgan chase & co 1.06 Uti asset management 0.81 Reliance capital tru 0.72 Vanguard group inc 0.72

*in last one year

Bulk Deals Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price

No Data Available

*in last one year

Insider Trades Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded 22 Jul 2013 Life Insurance Corporation Of India Sell 14013017.00 02 Nov 2012 Mr. A. M Naik Sell 20000.00

*in last one year

15 Edelweiss Securities Limited RATING & INTERPRETATION

Company Absolute Relative Relative Company Absolute Relative Relative reco reco risk reco reco Risk ABB India REDUCE SU L Bajaj Electricals HOLD SP M BGR Energy HOLD SU M Bharat Electronics BUY SO H Bharat Heavy Electricals REDUCE SU M Crompton Greaves HOLD SP M Cummins India BUY SO L Havells India BUY SO M Kalpataru Power BUY SO M KEC International BUY SO M Larsen & Toubro BUY SO M Siemens HOLD SP L Thermax REDUCE SP L Voltas HOLD SP L

ABSOLUTE RATING

Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months

Buy More than 15%

Hold Between 15% and - 5%

Reduce Less than -5%

RELATIVE RETURNS RATING

Ratings Criteria Sector Outperformer (SO) Stock return > 1.25 x Sector return

Sector Performer (SP) Stock return > 0.75 x Sector return

Stock return < 1.25 x Sector return

Sector Underperformer (SU) Stock return < 0.75 x Sector return

Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe within the sector

RELATIVE RISK RATING

Ratings Criteria

Low (L) Bottom 1/3rd percentile in the sector

Medium (M) Middle 1/3rd percentile in the sector

High (H) Top 1/3rd percentile in the sector

Risk ratings are based on Edelweiss risk model

SECTOR RATING

Ratings Criteria Overweight (OW) Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return

Equalweight (EW) Sector return > 0.75 x Nifty return

Sector return < 1.25 x Nifty return

Underweight (UW) Sector return < 0.75 x Nifty return

16 Edelweiss Securities Limited Larsen & Toubro

Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai – 400 098. Board: (91-22) 4009 4400 , Email : [email protected] Vikas Khemani Head Institutional Equities vikas.khemani@edel weissfin .com +91 22 2286 4206

Nischal Maheshwari Co-Head Institutional Equities & Head Research [email protected] +91 22 4063 5476

Nirav Sheth Head Sales [email protected] +91 22 4040 7499

Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s): Engineering and Capital Goods ABB India, BGR Energy, Bharat Electronics, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Bajaj Electricals, Crompton Greaves, Havells India, KEC International, Cummins India, Kalpataru Power, Larsen & Toubro, Siemens, Thermax, Voltas

Recent Research

Date Company Title Price (INR) Recos

24 -Sep -13 Larsen and IDPL asset sale signals get 827 Buy Toubro clearer; Visit Note 10 -Sep -13 Larsen and Macro master: Thriving 807 Buy Toubro despite odds; Braveheart - PPT 10 -Sep -13 Larsen and Macro master: Thriving 807 Buy Toubro despite odds; Braveheart

Distribution of Ratings / Market Cap

Edelweiss Research Coverage Universe Rating Interpretation

Buy Hold Reduce Total Rating Expected to

Rating Distribution* 127 44 8 180 Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period * 1 stocks under review Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12-month period > 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn

Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12 -month period Market Cap (INR) 112 54 14

17 Edelweiss Securities Limited Engineering and Capital Goods

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18 Edelweiss Securities Limited Larsen & Toubro

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