Economic Review
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M ONTHLY REVIEW Of Financial, Agricultural, Trade and Industrial Conditions in the Sixth Federal Reserve D istrict FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA This review released for publication in VOL. 15, No. 12 ATLANTA, GA., December 31, 1930. morning papers of December 31. NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS According to the December crop report of the Department of Agri Prepared by the Federal Reserve Board culture, output of corn in 1930 was 2,081 million bushels, about 500 million less than last year, and 600 million less than the five year average Volume of industrial production and factory employment decreased while the total wheat crop of 851 million bushels was about equal to the further in November and wholesale commodity prices continued to 1924-1928 average. The cotton crop of 14,243,000 bales was slightly decline. Distribution of commodities by department stores increased smaller than in the two previous seasons. Total crop production was less than is usual for November. about 5 per cent smaller than a year ago. Production and Industrial production declined about 4 per cent in Distribution Freight car loadings decreased further in November by Employment November according to the Federal Reserve Board’s more than the ordinary seasonal amount. Expansion seasonally adjusted index. Output of iron and steel of department store sales from October to November was smaller than decreased further while the number of automobiles produced per work usual, following a growth in October that was larger than usual. ing day continued at a low level. Daily average cotton consumption Wholesale Prices The general level of wholesale commodity prices increased further by somewhat more than the usual seasonal amount declined further in November according to the and activity at silk mills continued to increase, while wool consumption Bureua of Labor Statistics and there were additional price declines decreased by an amount substantially larger than is usual in November. in the first half of December, when several commodities, including Production at cement mills was reduced considerably, daily output at silver and cotton, reached new low levels. From the end of October meat packing establishments increased less than the usual seasonal to the middle of December there were substantial decreases in prices amount, and output of minerals declined. Factory employment and of many other commodities, including corn, hogs, pork, hides, tin and payrolls showed decreases in November, reflecting in part changes of a coffee, while prices of copper and rubber fluctuated widely, declining seasonal character. The number employed in the clothing, and shoe at the end of the period. industries decreased by more than the usual amount, while employment Bank Credit Loans and investments of reporting member banks in at silk mills showed an increase contrary to the ordinary seasonal leading cities declined by about $250,000,000- during the movement. In the industries producing building materials, including three week period ending December 10, reflecting a further reduction lumber, cement, and brick, declines in employment exceeded the usual of $69,000,000 in loans on securities, and a decline of $196,000,000 in seasonal proportions. In the automobile industry employment declined all other loans, offset in part by a further small increase in investments. further but by an amount considerably smaller than is usual in Novem There was also a decline in time deposits, reflecting in large part with ber. Value of contracts awarded for residential building and for pub drawal of Christmas funds. In the following week, December 10 to lic works and utilities, as reported by F. W. Dodge Corporation, declined December 17, changes in the figures for reporting banks reflected in in November and contracts for commercial and industrial building con part the closing of a large reporting bank in New York City. This tinued at the low levels of other recent months. In the first two weeks resulted in a decline in the reported assets and liabilities of New York of December the daily average of total contracts awarded was somewhat City banks. Reserve bank credit outstanding increased by about smaller than in November. $294,000,000 during the four weeks ending December 17, and there was PER CENT PER CENT PER CENT PERCENT 120 F■ACTORY EMPLOYlM EN T AND\ P A Y R O L L 5 A v v 110 110 / \ i I 1 u 3* r > A j P I l \ 100 L}&, 1 v / v # i i 100 / V i ,**• • L \ Emplo;/ment 901-------------- 90 r \ VAX 1-------------- ,— -------1—80 80 \ i > 70 70 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 Index numbers of production of manufactures and minerals combined Index numbers of factory employment and payrolls, without adjust* adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average=100), Latest figure ment for seasonal variations (1923-25 average-100). Latest figures Novem November: 84. ber Employment 81.1, payrolls 75.1. Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2 MONTHLY REVIEW PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PER CENT 120 RAILROAD rRElGHT CAI* LOADINGS 120 Miscellaneous 110 /M 110 A » ^ |\ a i / V V aI r* a A / \i \ A l 1 Ji /V V f b1/ \ ' " \\ 100 V \ V |VA 100 J Total -A\\ \ V \ 90 \\ \* 90 60 80 Cars of revenue freight loaded as reported by the American Railway Index of United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. (1926—100. base a- Association. Index numbers adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-25 dopted by bureau). Latest figures November 80.4. average = 100). Latest figures November, Total 82, Miscellaneous 88. also an addition of $30,000,000 in the country's stock of gold. Dis compared with that period of 1929. There were further seasonal de counts for member banks increased by $126,000,000, acceptance hold clines in receipts of turpentine and rosin in November, but stocks in ings of the reserve banks by $74,000,000 and their holdings of United creased, and current prices are below the lowest at any time in other States securities, including one day treasury certificates issued in con recent years. nection with December 15 fiscal operation, by $96,000,000. The increase The final estimate by the United States Department of Agricul in reserve bank credit outstanding reflected a large growth in the ture indicates a cotton crop in the six states of this district larger by demand for currency by the public and by banks, resulting in part 488,000 bales than was expected at the time of the first estimate of the from the currency requirements for the holiday trade, and in part season in August, but smaller by 173,000 bales than the 1929 crop. from demand for cash from banks and from the public in regions where The price of cotton continues much below the level of other recent important bank failures occurred during the period. years. During November and the first two weeks of December money rates continued fairly steady at extremely low levels, with prime com Loans and investments of weekly reporting member banks in selected mercial paper at a range of 2f-3 per cent, and Bankers’ acceptances at cities of the district declined approximately 3 millions of dollars be 17/8 per cent. In the third week of December there was a slight tween November 12 and December 10, and were over 36 millions less increase in rates for call and time loans on the New York Stock Ex than a year ago. Deposits declined during this four week period, but change. The yields on high grade bonds increased during the latter borrowings of these banks at the Federal Reserve Bank increased. part of the period. Reserve bank credit outstanding increased nearly nine millions dur ing this period, but was about 17 millions less than a year ago. SIXTH DISTRICT SUMMARY FINANCE Most of the available series of business statistics show declines for November compared with the preceding month and with the corres Reserve Bank The total volume of reserve bank credit outstanding ponding period last year. The volume of retail and wholesale trade Credit at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, as represented declined seasonally in November to the lowest level for that month by its total holdings of bills and securities, increased of any of the past ten years. For the eleven months of 1930 depart by nearly nine millions of dollars between November 12 and December ment store sales have averaged 8.5 per cent, and sales by wholesale 10. Cash reserves declined, and member bank reserve balances and firms have averaged 18.1 per cent, smaller than in that period of 1929, Federal Reserve notes in circulation increased during this period. but these percentage comparisons make no allowance for declines in Holdings of discounted bills on December 10 were larger by $10,003,- prices. Building permits issued at 20 reporting cities declined in No 000 than on November 12, but were $12,330,000 less than on December vember to the lowest total for any month on record, and for the year 11 last year. Holdings of bills secured by United States Government through November have been 40 per cent less than in that part of obligations increased slightly between November 12 and December 10 1929. Contracts awarded in the district as a whole, however, increased but were substantially smaller than a year ago, and All Other Discounts 27 per cent over October and were 26 per cent greater than for Novem on December 10 were $9,936,000 greater than four weeks earlier, and ber 1929. Consumption of cotton by American mills in November smaller by $6,867,000 than a year ago. Holdings of bills bought in the declined 6.7 per cent compared with October, and was 23 per cent open market on December 10 were nearly 4 millions greater, but hold smaller than in November last year, and output of both cloth and ings of United States Government securities about 5 millions smaller, yarn mills in the sixth district was smaller than in either of those than on November 12, and both show decreases compared with hold months.