STEPPING AWAY FROM THE ABYSS: A Gradual Approach Towards a New Security System in the Persian Gulf Edited by Luigi Narbone & Abdolrasool Divsallar © European University Institute, 2021 Editorial matter and selection © Luigi Narbone, Abdolrasool Divsallar, 2021. Chapters © authors individually 2021. This text may be downloaded only for personal research purposes. Any additional reproduction for other pur- poses, whether in hard copies or electronically, requires the consent of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies. If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the year and the publisher. Views expressed in this publication reflect the opinion of individual authors and not those of the European Uni- versity Institute. Published by European University Institute (EUI) Via dei Roccettini 9, I-50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy doi:10.2870/39131 ISBN:978-92-9466-011-4 © Artwork: Schutterstock: Sunshine Seeds STEPPING AWAY FROM THE ABYSS: A Gradual Approach Towards a New Security System in the Persian Gulf Edited by: Luigi Narbone & Abdolrasool Divsallar Table of Content Contributors i Introduction The Uncertain Future of the Security System in the Persian Gulf Region vi Luigi Narbone & Abdolrasool Divsallar Section 1: Framing the Future Regional Security System Peace in the Persian Gulf: An Assessment 1 Gawdat Bahgat Cooperation: The Gordian Knot 13 Ross Harrison Why do regional security plans fail? 27 Abdolrasool Divsallar Meeting Security Challenges in the Gulf: Ideal Solutions and Practical Steps 35 Andrey Kortunov Section 2: Enhancing Multilateral Approaches to the Restructuring of the Security System What European Mediation in the Persian Gulf Should Look Like 49 Joost R. Hiltermann The US Strategy in Building a Persian Gulf Security Framework 57 Caroline Rose Russia, the GCC and Iran: Moscow’s Approach to the Regional Security Architecture 68 Maxim A. Suchkov, Artem K. Adrianov and Viktoria V. Yanina China’s Policy and Practice Regarding the Gulf Security 81 Liu Lanyu Section 3: De-escalating Risks of Military Outbreaks Saudi Arabia and Iran: Exploring Theoretical Pathways Towards Desecuritisation 95 David Roberts Responding to US-Iran Military Escalation 106 Mahsa Rouhi Section 4: Exploring the Potential of Non-Traditional Security Instruments A Process “Good in Itself” or a “Waste of Time”? Assessing the Values and Limits of Track-2 Programmes in the Gulf 123 Riccardo Redaelli Iran-Saudi Relations: Is Pilgrimage a Mirror of Conflict? 133 Mahjoob Zweiri The Religious Potential for De-escalation of Iran-Saudi Tension: The Case of the Hajj 144 Ghadir Nasri The Politics of Pilgrimage: Exploring the Hajj as a Site for Dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran 153 Simon Mabon and Lucia Ardovini Smart Context-Based Investments in the Persian Gulf’s Economic Security 163 Robert Mogielnicki Environmental cooperation in the Gulf region: Why it matters and why it is failing 175 Tobias Zumbrägel Conclusion Towards a Security-Building Continuum in the Persian Gulf 186 Abdolrasool Divsallar and Luigi Narbone CONTRIBUTORS Luigi Narbone is the Director of the Middle Georgetown University’s School of Foreign East Direc tions Programme at the Robert Service for 16 years. He is the author of ‘Strategic Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies as well Thinking in 3D: A guide for National Security, as coordinator of the Peace and Security cluster Foreign Policy and Business Professionals’ and at the School of Transnational Governance, with Paul Salem ‘Escaping the Conflict Trap: European University Institute. Previous ly, he was Toward Ending Civil Wars in the Middle East’ and Ambassador, Head of the EU Delegation to Saudi ‘From Chaos to Cooperation: Toward Regional Arabia, and non-resident Ambassador to Qatar, Order in the Middle East.’ He is currently working Oman, Bahrain, the UAE, and Kuwait and has on a book on Iranian Foreign Policy. held several positions in foreign affairs in the EU and the UN. His main research interests are in MENA geopoli tics, security and political economy, Andrey Kortunov is the Director General of Gulf studies and peacebuilding. the Russian International Affairs Council. He graduated from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) in 1979 and Abdolrasool Divsallar co-leads the Regional completed his postgraduate studies at the Security Initiative at the Middle East Directions Institute for U.S. and Canada Studies of the USSR Programme of the Robert Schuman Centre for Academy of Sciences in 1982. He holds a PhD Advanced Studies at the European University in History. Dr Kortunov completed internships at Institute. He is also an Adjunct Professor in Middle the Soviet embassies in London and Washington, Eastern Studies at the Catholic University of the and at the Permanent Delegation of the USSR to S. Heart in Milan. Previously, he was a Policy the UN. In 1982–1995, Dr Kortunov held various Leader Fellow at the EUI School of Transnational positions in the Institute for U.S. and Canada Governance, senior fellow at the Institute for Studies, including Deputy Director. He taught Middle East Strategic Studies (2017-2019). at universities around the world, including the Between 2005 and 2012 he worked as an advisor University of California, Berkeley. In addition, and researcher at both the Defense Industries he led several public organisations involved in Training and Research Institute and the Center higher education, social sciences and social for Strategic Studies of Expediency Council in development. Since 2011, Andrey Kortunov has Tehran. Divsallar holds a PhD in Iranian studies been the Director General of RIAC. He is a member from University of Tehran and his main research of expert and supervisory committees and boards interests include Iran’s defense policy, US-Iran of trustees of several Russian and international and Russia-Iran relations, comparative threat organisations. His academic interests include perception and strategic studies. contemporary international relations and Russian foreign policy. Gawdat Bahgat is a professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at the Joost Hiltermann is the Middle East and North National Defense University in Washington DC. Africa Programme Director at the International He is the author of 12 books and more than 200 Crisis Group. He has followed developments in articles on the Middle East. the region ever since the Iran-Iraq war. His book A Poisonous Affair (Cambridge, 2007) discusses the U.S. role in Iraq’s use of chemical weapons Ross Harrison is a Senior Fellow and Director during that conflict. of Research at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC and is on the faculty of the Political Science Department at the University Caroline Rose is a Senior Analyst and Head of of Pittsburgh. Harrison was on the faculty of the Strategic Vacuums program at the think tank, ii CONTRIBUTORS Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, where relations, foreign policy and soft power of the she analyses contested territories, ungoverned Persian Gulf countries. spaces, and security landscapes in the Levant, Eastern Mediterranean, the Persian Gulf, Europe, and other theaters. Before her role at Viktoria V. Yanina is affiliated with the Global Newlines Institute, she served as an analyst at Politics and International Political Analysis the forecasting firm, Geopolitical Futures, where Program, MGIMO University. She is a graduate she analysed defense, economic, and political of St. Petersburg State University majored in developments in the Middle East and Europe. Asian and African studies. Her research interests Caroline also served as a research associate at include Iran’s foreign policy and Russian-Iranian the London School of Economic’s International relations. Drug Policy Unit (IDPU) where she conducted field research and co-authored a special policy report on the Captagon drug trade in Syria and Liu Lanyua is an Assistant Professor at the Lebanon and its evolving role within the context Institute for International and Area Studies, of Middle Eastern illicit economies. Caroline is Tsinghua University. His research focuses on a graduate of the London School of Economics Iran’s domestic politics and foreign policies after with a Master of Science in International History the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Besides, he is also and from The American University’s School of interested in Chinese foreign policy after 2010. International Service with a Bachelors of Arts in International Studies. Her work and commentary David Roberts is an Associate Professor at have been featured in Al Jazeera, Arab News, King’s College London and the lead on Regional Foreign Policy Magazine, al-Hurra, al-Ghad TV, Security and Development in the School of and the Atlantic Council, among others. Security Studies. He is also Adjunct Faculty at Sciences Po. Previously, David taught for King’s at the Qatar Defence Academy, and he was the Maxim A. Suchkov is Associate Professor at the Department of Applied International Analysis, Director of the Gulf office of the Royal United Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Services Institute for Defence and Security MGIMO University. Dr. Suchkov is also an studies think-tank (RUSI Qatar). associate research fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) and a non- Mahsa Rouhi is a Research Fellow for Iran, the resident scholar at the Washington-based Middle Levant and Turkey at the Institute for National East Institute (MEI). Earlier, he was a Fulbright Strategic Studies, at the National Defense Visiting Fellow at Georgetown University (2010- University; and an Associate Fellow at the 2011), Visiting Fellow at New York University International Institute for Strategic Studies. (2015) and adjunct professor at the IE University in Spain (2020). He was also the editor of Al- Monitor’s Russia-Mideast coverage (2016-2020). Riccardo Redaelli is the director of the Center for Research on the Southern System and the Wider Mediterranean (CRiSSMA) and Director of is a professor at the Artem K. Adrianov the Master in Middle Eastern Studies (MIMES), International Relations and Energy Diplomacy Catholic University of the S.