Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council and City & County of Swansea Council
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot
Final Report
Project Ref: 26688/001
Doc Ref: R001/rev04
October 2012
Peter Brett Associates LLP 10 Queen Square Bristol BS1 4NT T: 0117 9281560 F: 0117 9281570 E: [email protected] Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
We print on 100% recycled paper from sustainable suppliers accredited to ISO 14001.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land ii Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Document Control Sheet
Project Name: Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Project Ref: 26688/001 Report Title: Final Report Doc Ref: R001/rev04 Date: October 2012
Name Position Signature Date
Paul Jobson Associate 19/10/2012
Prepared by: Ed Salter Senior Planner 19/10/2012
Russell Porter Senior Associate 24/10/2012 Reviewed by:
John Baker Partner 25/10/2012 Approved by:
For and on behalf of Peter Brett Associates LLP
Revision Date Description Prepared Reviewed Approved
01 05/07/2012 Draft Report RP/PJ/ED JB JB
02 28/08/2012 Final Draft Report RP/PJ/ED JB JB
03 25/09/2012 Final Report RP/PJ/ED JB JB
04 25/10/2012 Final Report (Amended) PJ/ED JB JB
Peter Brett Associates LLP disclaims any responsibility to the Client and others in respect of any matters outside the scope of this report. This report has been prepared with reasonable skill, care and diligence within the terms of the Contract with the Client and generally in accordance with the appropriate ACE Agreement and taking account of the manpower, resources, investigations and testing devoted to it by agreement with the Client. This report is confidential to the Client and Peter Brett Associates LLP accepts no responsibility of whatsoever nature to third parties to whom this report or any part thereof is made known. Any such party relies upon the report at their own risk. © Peter Brett Associates LLP 2012
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land iii Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land iv Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Contents
Executive Summary ...... 1 1 Introduction ...... 9 1.1 Background to Study ...... 9 1.2 Methodology ...... 9 1.3 Report Structure ...... 10 2 Strategy Context and Policy Review ...... 12 2.1 Introduction ...... 12 2.2 National Policy and Strategies ...... 12 2.3 Local Policies and Strategies for the Economy ...... 17 2.4 Conclusion ...... 27 3 The Local and Regional Economy ...... 29 3.1 Introduction ...... 29 3.2 Workplace Economy ...... 29 3.3 Economic Structure...... 33 3.4 Resident Workforce ...... 42 3.5 Sustainability ...... 45 3.6 Conclusion ...... 48 4 Commercial Property Profile ...... 51 4.1 Introduction ...... 51 4.2 Offices ...... 51 4.3 Industrial & Warehousing ...... 54 4.4 Conclusion ...... 60 5 Employment Growth and Space Requirements ...... 62 5.1 Introduction ...... 62 5.2 Employment Forecasts ...... 62 5.3 Employment Growth Scenarios ...... 67 5.4 Employment Space Requirements ...... 72 5.5 Conclusion ...... 80 6 Sites Assessment ...... 82 6.1 Introduction ...... 82 6.2 Swansea Sites Assessment ...... 82 6.3 Part 1 Site Assessment ...... 82 6.4 Part 2 Site Assessment (Candidate Sites) ...... 94 6.5 Neath Port Talbot ...... 102 6.6 Conclusion ...... 104 7 Future Scenarios for Housing Growth ...... 107 7.1 Introduction ...... 107 7.2 Existing Population Structure ...... 107 7.3 Population and Household Projections ...... 109 7.4 Population and Housing Scenario ...... 114 7.5 Conclusion ...... 120 8 Conclusions and Recommendations ...... 122 8.1 Introduction ...... 122 8.2 Conclusions ...... 122 8.3 Recommendations ...... 125 8.4 Future Monitoring ...... 134
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land v Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Tables Table 1.1 Method of Approach ...... 9 Table 3.1 Number of business units by size, 2008 ...... 30 Table 3.2 Percentage of businesses units by size – sub-areas in Neath Port Talbot, 2008 ...... 30 Table 3.3 Number of employees by size of business, 2008 ...... 30 Table 3.4 Percentage of employees by size of business - by sub-areas, 2008 ...... 31 Table 3.5 Largest Employers (with more than 500) in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot ...... 31 Table 3.6 Latest Employment Estimates, 2010 ...... 32 Table 3.7 Part-time Employees, 2010 ...... 33 Table 3.8 Homeworkers, 2001 ...... 33 Table 3.9 Broad Employment Structure, 2010 ...... 34 Table 3.10 Change in Employment (total employees), 2008-2010 ...... 42 Table 3.11 Population Structure, 2010 ...... 43 Table 3.12 Neath Port Talbot Travel to work patterns, 2010 ...... 48 Table 3.13 Swansea Travel to Work patterns, 2010 ...... 48 Table 4.1 Office Unit Numbers and Total Floorspace Change, 2002 to 2012 ...... 51 Table 4.2 Industrial Unit Numbers and Total Floorspace Change, 2002 to 2012 ...... 55 Table 4.3 Neath Port Talbot Vacancy Rates by Premises Type ...... 57 Table 5.1 Employment Growth, Past and Future ...... 64 Table 5.2 Experian Economics Employment Forecasts for Swansea (with adjustments) ...... 65 Table 5.3 Experian Economics Employment Forecasts for Neath Port Talbot (with adjustments) ...... 66 Table 5.4 Swansea B-space and Non B-space Employment, 2010-2025 ...... 73 Table 5.5 Neath Port Talbot B-space and Non B-space Employment, 2010-2026...... 74 Table 5.6 Swansea B-space Requirements, 2010-2025 ...... 75 Table 5.7 Neath Port Talbot B-space Requirements, 2010-2026 ...... 78 Table 6.1 Existing Employment Sites and UDP Allocations included in Part 1 ...... 83 Table 6.2: Undeliverable Sites and Sites Developed for Employment (e.g. in use and fully taken up since UDP allocation) ...... 87 Table 6.3: Deliverable Sites Within and Adjacent to Existing Employment Estates ...... 89 Table 6.4 Regionally Significant Sites Suitable for Inward Investment ...... 92 Table 6.5 Candidate Sites Assessment ...... 98 Table 6.6 Neath Port Talbot Potential Allocations (Hectares) ...... 102 Table 6.7 Proposed Employment Sites to be Safeguarded ...... 103 Table 7.1 Mid-Year Estimates of Population Change for Swansea 2000/1 to 2009/10 ...... 108 Table 7.2 Demographic Change in Neath Port Talbot, 2001-2010 ...... 109 Table 7.3 Swansea WG’s 2008 Projections ...... 110 Table 7.4 Neath Port Talbot WG 2008 Population Scenario ...... 111 Table 7.5 Swansea Lower and Upper Population Growth Scenarios, 2010-2025 ...... 111 Table 7.6: Components of Change: Migration to and from Swansea, 1998-2010 ...... 112 Table 7.7 Neath Port Talbot Population projections 2011 to 2026 ...... 113 Table 7.8: Neath Port Talbot Annual Trends in Net Migration, from 1991 to 2008 ...... 114 Table 7.9: Baseline information ...... 115 Table 7.10: Swansea Employment Led Growth Option ...... 116 Table 7.11:Neath Port Talbot Employment Led Growth Option ...... 116 Table 7.12 Swansea Labour Market Balance Summary ...... 119 Table 7.13 Neath Port Talbot Labour Market Balance Summary ...... 119
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land vi Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Figures Figure 3.2: Strength of Sectors Swansea ...... 37 Figure 3.3: Strength of Sectors Neath Port Talbot ...... 38 Figure 3.4 Knowledge Economy Employment as a share of total employment, 2010 ...... 39 Figure 3.5 B-Space Employment as a Share of all Employment, 2010 ...... 40 Figure 3.6 Employment Change (all workplace employees), 1998-2008 ...... 42 Figure 3.7 Skill Levels of Working Age Residents, 2010 ...... 44 Figure 3.8 Rates of Economic Activity among Residents by Age, year to June 2011 ...... 44 Figure 3.9 Changes in Unemployment Rate over Time, 2004-2010 ...... 45 Figure 3.10 Full-Time Weekly Gross Median Pay, 2011 ...... 46 Figure 3.11 Job Density by Welsh local authorities, 2009 ...... 46 Figure 4.1 Office Floorspace Growth, 2002-2012 ...... 51 Figure 4.2 Office Total Available Supply ...... 52 Figure 4.3 Office Space Realised Demand ...... 53 Figure 4.4 Offices Headline Rents, 2011 ...... 54 Figure 4.5 Industrial/warehousing Total Available Supply ...... 56 Figure 4.6 Available Floorspace in Neath Port Talbot ...... 57 Figure 4.7 Industrial/warehousing Realised Demand ...... 58 Figure 4.8 Industrial/warehousing headline rent £psqm 2011 ...... 59 Figure 6.1 Part 1 Site Assessment – City Centre/ Waterfront and Swansea Vale/Enterprise Park) .... 85 Figure 6.2 Part 1 Site Assessment – (Swansea West and Swansea North) ...... 86 Figure 6.3 LDP Candidate Sites - (City Centre/ Waterfront and Swansea Vale/Enterprise Park) ...... 95 Figure 6.4 LDP Candidate Sites – (Swansea West and Swansea North) ...... 96
Appendices Appendix 1 – Sector Definitions and Conversions to B-Space Requirements Appendix 2 – PBA’s Assessments of Swansea Sites Appendix 3 – NPTCBC’s Assessments of Neath Port Talbot Sites Appendix 4 – Delivery Issues and Options
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land vii Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Executive Summary
Introduction
The City & County of Swansea (CCS) and Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council (NPTCBC) commissioned Peter Brett Associates (PBA) to undertake an Economic Assessment and Employment Land Provision study in March 2012.
This study will inform the development and review of planning policy and allocations for housing and employment land in the CCS and NPTCBC Local Development Plans to 2025 and 2026 respectively. The study therefore provides the necessary evidence base for identifying suitable housing and employment land requirements to support sound proposals which are consistent with the economic aspirations and strategies for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot.
Policy Context for Employment Land
While national policy supports economic growth within the Swansea Bay sub-regional area, there is no clear guidance about how to translate this into planning policy at the local level. A new TAN for supporting the economy is to be published next year which will do this, so for now it will be the purpose of this study to provide the available evidence and offer suitable recommendations.
In Swansea, the local policy and strategy documents principally focus on generating wealth by diversifying the economy away from public sector employment and growing a higher value knowledge based economy that offers higher skilled and better paid employment opportunities. There are a number of priority projects to help deliver these objectives, ranging from securing training initiatives to developing specific sector research centres, and delivering employment land in the City Centre, along the waterfront and on the M4 Corridor to accommodate strategically large scale investments.
In NPT, the aim of the emerging LDP is to designate enough employment land to meet local and regional market demands, whilst also promoting a sustainable economy including provision for a diverse range of job opportunities close to public transport, housing and infrastructure. These jobs should match the skill base of the population. There are also aspirations for improving economic activity rates across the County and for revitalising the Valleys specifically by reducing outward migration. The preferred strategy is for moderate growth, with a focus for development along the M4 corridor and the main urban areas, including the regeneration of employment areas in Coed Darcy, Fabian Way, Baglan Bay and Port Talbot Docks. A priority is also made for growth in the Valley communities, particularly those of Pontardawe and Glynneath/Resolven. It should be noted that the results of the Economic Assessment and Employment Land Provision will inform the Council’s review of this position.
The Local Economy
The economies of Swansea and Neath Port Talbot differ, with Swansea’s economy being more than twice the size of NPT’s when measured by the number of businesses and jobs. Given Swansea’s city status, this is expected. Consequently, larger employers are attracted to Swansea because of its larger labour market and supply chain, which is reflected by the higher share of these firms in Table 1.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 1 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
In both Swansea and NPT, there are lower representations of small, micro businesses than the national norms, which indicates a lower than normal level of dynamism.
Most of Swansea’s jobs are in the services sector, including retail and tourism, but mostly in public services like health. There is also a relatively high level of knowledge based jobs compared with the Welsh average. Neath Port Talbot is heavily dominated by manufacturing, and by the Port Talbot steelworks in particular.
Some 36% of all current jobs in Swansea, and a more significant 47% in Neath Port Talbot, are likely to be accommodated in business space (i.e. office, industrial/warehousing uses). Compared to benchmark areas, this is high in NPT and low in Swansea.
Table 1: Swansea and NPT summary economic profiles compared with national averages
Economy Based Variable Swansea NPT Wales GB Businesses (VAT No. 7,400 3,600 or PAYE Micro-Businesses (1-10 employees) 82.3% 81.3% 83.8% 85.0% Registered, 2008) Large businesses (200+ employees) 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% Employment No. 107,100 43,900 (2010) Change 1998-2008 21.0% 1.0% 14.0% 8.5% Change 2008-2010 -3.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% Economic Sectors Knowledge based industries 16% 6% 12% (2010) Business space sector jobs 36% 47% 38% 44%
An under provision of workplaces is apparent in both Swansea and NPT. In particular, there are just 75 jobs for every 100 working-age residents in Swansea, which for the second largest city in Wales is notably underperforming compared to the percentages in Cardiff and Newport, as shown in Figure 1. NPT, with 55 jobs for every 100 working-age residents is also a low balance of jobs to workers when compared with neighbouring areas. The latter is reflected by high levels of out-commuting (38%), mostly to Swansea (24%).
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 2 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Figure 1: Job Density by Welsh local authorities, 2009
Generally, residents ‘well being’ is below national standards in both Swansea and NPT. Residents skill levels in Swansea are broadly in line, although slightly below, national averages. NPT is significantly below average, although evidence from recent school performance tables suggests that skill levels are good among school leavers.
Historically, economic activity levels have been lower and unemployment levels have been higher, in both Swansea and NPT which is compounding the problem for local resident prosperity. This is further compounded by projected ageing populations in both boroughs. Table 2: Swansea and NPT summary resident profiles compared with national averages
Resident Based Variable Swansea NPT Wales GB Population (2010) No. 232,500 137,400 Working age No. 150,100 86,600 population (2010) % share of population 65.0% 63.0% 63.0% 65.0% Qualifications of NVQ+ 27.0% 21.0% 28.0% 31.0% WAP (2010) None 15.0% 16.0% 13.0% 11.0% Economically 16-64 67.0% 69.0% 73.0% 76.0% active (2010) 65+ 6.0% 5.0% 8.0% 9.0% Unemployment rate 10.0% 10.0% 8.5% 8.0%
The scale and performance of Swansea’s economy, along with the wider policy context, suggests that Swansea’s employment land objectives should focus on attracting employment growth but should shift the emphasis from public sector to private sector jobs, particularly in the higher value knowledge based sectors which already have a strong local representation. Improvements to economic activity rates among its working age residents, e.g. through skills training, is also be necessary to achieve a more local sustainable future.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 3 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
The performance of NPT’s economy, along with the wider policy context, suggests that employment land objectives in NPT should focus on reducing net out-commuting by improving the balance of working residents to local jobs, with potential for increasing local prosperity and economic sustainability in the County. NPT should also improve the employment opportunities within higher value knowledge based sectors, which might better serve future generations of school leavers and higher skilled residents that are out-commuting to work.
Land and Property Markets
The Swansea and Neath Port Talbot commercial property market profiles differ considerably, and we look at each separately.
Swansea
Swansea is the second largest centre for office space in Wales after Cardiff. Between 2002 and 2008 there was significant development, particularly at SA1 and schemes like Axis Court at Swansea Vale. Swansea has become a focal point for offices, as is typical for city areas where business services are more likely to cluster. Agents report that most inquiries are from the business services sector for good quality modern premises, although private sector speculative development has been slowed by a fragile occupier market, the lack of credit and taxation of empty properties. There is a £1.50-£2.00 per sqft viability gap. Also, the availability of office space in Swansea is generally not fit for modern purposes, and has been increasing during the recent recession years.
Swansea’s also has a large quantum of industrial/warehousing space, although this is skewed to an extent by very large premises like the Alcoa site. Despite the continuing presence of large sites, like this there has been a 58,000 sqm reduction in space over the last decade (in contrast to the growth experienced in office floorspace). In addition, large amounts (23%) of industrial and warehousing space are available in Swansea, and anything above a vacancy rate of more than 10% is usually considered to be surplus to requirements.
There are a number of large UDP allocations in Swansea that have not yet been developed for a variety of reasons. These are located on the main access routes into the city from the M4, as well as close to the city centre itself. Other allocations are designed to meet local needs, for which there has been some natural churn among local occupiers rather than new inward investments.
Neath Port Talbot
NPT has not traditionally been a focus for private sector office occupiers, and there is very little demand (and hence availability) for offices, with most of the employment space found in industrial/employment uses in employment estates. There was a significant growth in total office stock between 2002 and 2012 in percentage growth terms, however, this growth was from a very small base and includes public sector developments. But more recently the economic downturn has severely impacted on the office space in particular which has entered the market in both NPT and Swansea.
NPT has traditionally been an industrial centre and this is reflected in the large quantum of industrial/warehousing space. In contrast to national trends, NPT has actually experienced a small increase in industrial/warehousing space over the last decade.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 4 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
There has been some minor growth in industrial floorspace stock in Neath Port Talbot in recent years. Agents report that most inquiries are for units of either up to 500 sqm (for start-up businesses) and over 2,500 sqm (for relocations), with little demand for medium sized units at the moment. Most inquiries are also seeking Grade A premises but given the shortfall in speculative development, the supply of these is limited and diminishing. This might restrict future investment given that most of the existing industrial space in NPT is old, and considered to be unfit for modern purposes and therefore will require investment or redevelopment to attract inward investors. This is reflected in the high estimated vacancy rate (17%), suggesting that there is some surplus to requirement industrial/warehousing floorspace.
The main employment estates are located in or around Port Talbot, Neath or bordering the M4. There are a number of large sites in and around Neath and Port Talbot that either have significant remaining land or are draft allocations. These include Baglan Energy Park, Junction 38 and the Port Talbot Docklands.
Future Space Requirements
Experian Economics (EE) were commissioned to provide ‘top down’ sector employment forecasts for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot over their respective plan periods. Some minor adjustments were made to mitigate known inaccuracies to provide a base forecast (EE (adj). A further +20% point adjustment was targeted in specific sectors which have been identified through stakeholder discussions and strategy documents as having local growth drivers. The upper end growth figures were used to identify the amount of business space that would be required to support the future growth in jobs, and to identify the number of additional homes that would be needed to accommodate future workers after allowing for improvements to economic activity and unemployment rates which match the Welsh long term average
Swansea
Under EE (adj), the base level of jobs growth in Swansea, from 2010 to 2025, is for an additional 6,100 jobs. The upper end employment growth scenario EE (adj+)) identified a potential for 14,700 additional jobs in Swansea. This growth is primarily driven by the following sectors: ‘Professional Services’, ‘Administrative & Supportive Services’, ‘Education’ and Health’, and tourism in the form of ‘Accommodation & Food Services’.
To accommodate the upper end growth in jobs in Swansea, there would be a need to plan for a net additional 84,000 sqm of office space over the LDP planning period from 2010 to 2025.
In parallel, the employment forecasts reveal little demand for new industrial space in Swansea but some demand for additional warehousing, with a potential for reducing the total amount of industrial/warehousing land in the County over the plan period. However, there is a further requirement to accommodate waste uses, which potentially could require up to 29 ha, in line with the Regional Waste Plan (RWP) top end requirements. Since waste uses can be accommodated on existing industrial land, this rincreases the requirement for industrial/warehousing land to a net increase of 30.4 ha over the plan period.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 5 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Based on the number of extra workers that would be required to match the number of additional jobs without needing to increase in-commuting, along with meeting the Council’s objectives for raising local economic activity levels and reducing unemployment, it is estimated that a net additional 16,421 homes would be required within the County over the plan period.
Neath Port Talbot
Under EE (adj), the base level of jobs growth in NPT, from 2011 to 2026, is for an additional 1,800 jobs. The upper end employment growth scenario EE (adj+)) identified a potential for 3,850 jobs in NPT. This growth would be driven by sectors similar to Swansea, with substantial gains in ‘Professional Services’, ‘Administrative & Supportive Services’, ‘Education’ and ‘Health’, and with the biggest growth in ‘Residential Care & Social Work’, reflecting demographic changes such as an ageing population.
To accommodate the upper end growth in jobs in Neath Port Talbot, there would be a positive requirement for additional office and industrial/warehousing space in NPT. Including the Regional Waste Plan targets of up to 11.4 ha of land for waste, the total plan requirements for net additional B- space land would total 20 ha, with 17 ha for industrial/warehousing uses and just 3 ha (12,000 sqm in floorspace) for offices.
So that there are enough local workers to meet the employment growth target without increasing in- commuting, it is estimated that the Council should aim for a net additional 8,027 homes within the County.
Natural Churn
Importantly, the land requirements set out above reflect only the quantified net changes based on net new jobs over the plan period. That is, they do not account for what might be required to meet gross demand for space irrespective of employment change, for example through natural churn whereby businesses are seeking new space to replace old/obsolete stock. Therefore it is important to build in some flexibility to allow for existing business relocations and ensuring that space is available where occupiers want to locate.
It is recommended that occupied and available employment sites within existing established and active employment areas in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot should continue to be available for employment uses, to meet the local churn and to provide for local choice for all investors. It is recommended that LDP’s should include employment policies to manage redevelopment within existing employment estates.
Recommendation on a Future Supply
In responding to the brief for assessing the suitability of local employment land supply for meeting future requirements for economic growth, the following recommendations are made:
Swansea
To meet the County’s economic growth needs up to 2025, the following policy approach is recommended:
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 6 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Safeguarded Sites: o Presumption in favour of development of vacant sites and redevelopment of exiting sites for appropriate B class uses within existing business areas; o Criteria based policy for assessment of proposals for redundant former employment sites; o Retention of employment land at Swansea West former Alcoa area, with potential for re-provision within the vicinity if urban extension proposals are advanced. Future Allocations: o Identification of inward investment site at Felindre to meet regional aspirations including inward investment and any requirements for significant employment provision; o 15-20 ha of employment land at Swansea Docks.
Neath Port Talbot
To meet the County’s economic growth needs up to 2026, the following policy approach is recommended: Safeguarded Sites: o Presumption in favour of development of vacant sites and redevelopment of existing sites for appropriate B class uses within existing business areas; o Criteria based policy for assessment of proposals for redundant former employment sites. Future Allocations: o Strategic Employment allocation at Baglan Bay ; o Strategic Regeneration Areas at Coed Darcy and Harbourside (Port Talbot Docks).
Additional Recommendations
An effective plan, monitor and manage (PMM) approach should be used for maintaining a suitable safeguarded supply of sites over the life of the plan. This should help to ensure that a suitable margin of deliverable space is sustained ahead of potential investments throughout the life of the plan.
Further allocations, permissions or releases of employment sites should be considered through regular monitoring of development and economic circumstances, and should be subject to a full review within five years of this study or sooner if any economic circumstances substantially change. The employment led housing scenario set out in the study seek to balance housing with economic growth and therefore will also need to be kept under review.
Where funding is available, public sector intervention should be considered for:
Delivering serviced plots for design and build options, which will help encourage investment that might be lost;
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 7 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Encouraging speculative development of workspace for leasehold premises, for which there is a shortage; Providing for a range of unit sizes through creating a premises ‘ladder’ within future strategically allocated sites, including Grade A relocation space and space for micro- sized (new) businesses.
A number of economic development priorities are also considered, including a greater joint authority partnership working in planning for employment in the event of a future move towards City Region status in Swansea Bay, improving local infrastructure including skills and transport particularly in the Valleys area, and for developing the Green Economy.
The executive summary contains an overview of the key findings and conclusions. However, no reliance should be placed on any part of the executive summary until the whole of the report has been read.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 8 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
1 Introduction
1.1 Background to Study
1.1.1 This report presents the findings of a study assessing economic growth and employment land, and the impacts for future housing requirements, within Swansea and Neath Port Talbot.
1.1.2 The overall purpose of the study is to help guide employment land policies and site allocations within planning documents and other strategic documents appropriate to the City & County of Swansea and Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council areas. Principally, it is ensuring that employment land supply in the two areas is sufficient to meet the current and future needs of business. This study therefore provides the necessary evidence base and coherent analysis of housing and employment land requirements, to support sound proposals which are consistent with the economic aspirations and strategies for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot, in addition to meeting the requirements of the local market.
1.2 Methodology
1.2.1 Table 1.1 below outlines the key stages, tasks and outputs to our approach to the study. It closely corresponds to the requirements set out in the study brief, fitted to ensure robustness in line with similar studies that we have undertaken which have been tested through Public Examination.
Table 1.1 Method of Approach Stage Tasks Key Outputs Inception meeting and briefing Inception Information review Inception report Agreed method Review of secondary socio-economic and property market data Consulted with local agents, key businesses Socio-economic profile Assessing and developers Property market profile demand for Commissioned and reviewed employment Sectoral employment employment forecasts for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot demand forecasts land and Established employment land and housing through scenario housing requirements to support employment growth testing Tested findings with stakeholders at workshops in Swansea and Neath Reviewed demand for land against the local supply Assessed Swansea’s existing sites and UDP Categorisation of key site allocations, and key (strategic) candidate sites (protect/allocate Identifying new sites, including site visits /surplus) portfolio of sites Consulted with local agents, key businesses Recommendations on and developers future allocations Tested land assessments findings with stakeholders at workshops in Swansea and Neath Interim Report Reporting Draft Final Report x 2 Final report Revised Final report
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 9 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Plan Period and Projections
1.2.2 Swansea’s emerging Local Development Plan (LDP) will cover the period 2010-2025. Neath Port Talbot’s LDP will cover the time period from 2011-2026.
1.2.3 During this period, we consider the net change (i.e. net of gains and losses) in employment and housing between the latest point at which information is known and is available, and forecast period to the end year of the respective emerging LDPs. Therefore, for Swansea this is to 2025, and for Neath Port Talbot this is to 2026.
Demand Assessments
1.2.4 In estimating future land requirements, a local study such as this one would normally incorporate policies handed down from higher tiers of government through national and sub- regional guidance. But at present national and sub-regional guidance is work in progress and therefore does not yet exist. To provide helpful advice in these circumstances, we have developed demand scenarios based on current trend based employment demand forecasts prepared by Experian Economics and adjusted demand forecasts reflecting local employment growth opportunities that might emerge and should be planned for.
Site Assessments
1.2.5 The study is to provide an assessment of employment sites in Swansea only. This is because Neath Port Talbot’s employment sites have been assessed by Neath Port Talbot CBC as a separate study. This element of the study is a more fine-grained and detailed part of the work, which considers the delivery potential of employment land allocations within Swansea to meet potential economic growth potential targets.
1.3 Report Structure
1.3.1 The report structure covers the following sections:
Chapter 2 summarises the strategic context for the study at both the national and local levels;
Chapter 3 analyses the present condition of the local economy and workforce, establishing the baseline for future change;
Chapter 4 provides an overview of current market conditions for employment space in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot and the wider area, to understand short term need and demand for employment space;
Chapters 5 and 6 respectively review employment projections/employment space requirements and an indication of the housing levels required for supporting economic growth over the plan period;
Chapter 7 summarises the assessments of potential employment land allocations across both areas to establish fitness for purpose of existing land and suitable locations for future development; and
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 10 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Chapter 8 draws together the findings of the study and presents recommendations for consideration by the Councils in the development of their Local Development Plans.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 11 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
2 Strategy Context and Policy Review
2.1 Introduction
2.1.1 This section covers the relevant national and local planning policy as well as other relevant studies which should be complied with when planning for employment in relation to the economy and employment land provision.
2.2 National Policy and Strategies
Planning Policy Wales – Welsh Government (Revised 2011)
2.2.1 Planning Policy Wales (PPW) sets out the process of planning and guiding principles for developing planning policy, including advice for local authorities in developing local development plans (LDP). However it does not set out detailed practical guidance for many important aspects of the LDP, such as how to decide how much employment land should be allocated, or where, or how to align employment and housing.
2.2.2 While the PPW is supplemented by a series of Technical Advice Notes, none are currently specifically relevant to employment land provision apart from TAN 6 – ‘Planning for Sustainable Rural Communities’. TAN6 states that development plans should facilitate diversification of the rural economy by accommodating the needs of both traditional industries and new enterprises, whilst minimising impacts on the local community and the environment. In order to achieve this it states that development plans should identify a range of sites suitable for future employment use.
2.2.3 Whilst employment land policy and guidance is limited to TAN 6, this looks set to change with the revision to the Economy section of PPW (Chapter 7 – Supporting the economy) which was recently consulted on earlier this year. This identifies a new TAN providing further guidance on the preparation and use of Employment Land Reviews. This is expected in 2013, which is beyond the completion of this study. Nevertheless, since the PPW Chapter 7 has been consulted on for revision, we make reference to the drafted revised chapter. Importantly, PPW Chapter 7 stresses the need for using evidence for setting an economic vision, promote more cross county border working and decision making, and guides development plans to follow a number of processes, including the following selected points:
“A broad assessment of anticipated employment change by broad sector and land use;
Targets on land provision for the employment uses (Classes B1-B8), showing net change in land/floorspace for offices and industry/warehousing separately;
Include policies relating to future development on existing employment sites to protect them from inappropriate development;
To encourage the regeneration and re-use of sites which are still suitable and needed for employment;
To control and manage the release of unwanted employment sites to other uses; and
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 12 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Seek to provide the right amount of land and qualitative mix of sites to meet the market demand for economic development uses”.
2.2.4 The first and most important objective for the purpose of this study, is that supporting the economy through the planning system should be planned through making provision for the needs of the entire economy, including retail, leisure and public services in addition to the traditional employment land uses defined as B1, B2 and B8. However, the target for doing so is still to be set through setting targets for B-class use developments, as noted above.
2.2.5 There is also a requirement for local planning authorities to align jobs with local housing to reduce the need to travel, especially by car. Mixed use developments, including flexible workspaces in dwelling and commercial premises, are to be positively encouraged, where appropriate. In doing so, the Wales Spatial Plan and PPW state that issues of a strategic nature should be planned for collaboratively. It therefore encourages local authorities to commission or undertake collaborative ‘cross boundary’ reports in order to inform the LDP evidence base, preparation and examination.
2.2.6 The Assembly Government also remains committed to building a modern economy with a broader economic base that provides job opportunities for all and where greater use of modern technology redresses the problems of access and peripherality.
The Wales Spatial Plan – ‘People, Places and Futures’, Welsh Government, 2008 (update)
2.2.7 The Wales Spatial Plan (WSP) sets out the strategic vision for Wales over the next 20 years. The economic objective is for a sustainable economy, as the plan states:
“We need an innovative, high value-added economy for Wales which utilises and develops the skills and knowledge of our people; an economy which both creates wealth and promotes the spreading of that prosperity throughout Wales; an economy which adds to the quality of life as well as the standard of living and the working environment.”
2.2.8 One of the Spatial Plan priorities is to reduce economic inactivity, with the very ambitious aspiration for achieving the long term goal of full employment in Wales, at a rate of 80% of the working age population.
2.2.9 There is also a suggestion for planners to look favourably on tourism infrastructure, including as part of regeneration schemes.
2.2.10 Similar to PPW, it states that any planning authorities identifying new sites for employment should locate them near public transport and close to housing and infrastructure developments. This implies a favouring of town centre sites and along major transport routes over out of town development per se. Specific site identification and development will be progressed in accordance with appropriate planning and other regulatory requirements. Wherever possible, the development of brownfield sites should be prioritised over greenfield sites.
2.2.11 The WSP sets out the basis for future collaborative work within each region of Wales, and a framework for future public and private investment decisions. Each region has its own vision
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 13 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
and delivery framework within the Spatial Plan. In line with the national vision, the Swansea Bay – Waterfront and Western vision (covering both Swansea and Neath Port Talbot) is for:
“A network of interdependent settlements with Swansea at its heart which pull together effectively as a city region with a modern, competitive, knowledge-based economy designed to deliver a high quality of life, a sustainable environment, a vibrant waterfront and excellent national and international connections”
2.2.12 Swansea is the regional capital and the main driver for economic growth in the region. Neath and Port Talbot are also identified as “particularly important” settlements for employment and various services, supported through a choice of transport to and from jobs and services. These settlements plus (seven others in the sub-region) should complement rather than compete for jobs and service provisions.
2.2.13 This approach looks set to be strengthened under emerging planning policy, which will advocate a city region approach. This approach could deliver 3 main economic benefits. City Regions, which would include Swansea, provide larger and more efficient labour markets, with a good match between employer needs and workers’ skills are increased. They have larger potential markets for goods and services because of the concentration of activity and transport cost savings. City regions also experience a greater exchange of knowledge, data and innovation.
Economic Renewal: A New Direction 2010
2.2.14 The Welsh Government vision for economic revival is of ‘a Welsh economy built upon the strengths and skills of its people and natural environment; recognised at home and abroad as confident, creative and ambitious; a great place to live and work’. There are five priorities underpinning the delivery of this plan: Investing in high quality and sustainable infrastructure;
Making Wales a more attractive place to do business;
Broadening and deepening the skills base;
Encouraging innovation; and
Targeting the business support we offer.
2.2.15 With regard to investing in high quality and sustainable infrastructure, the Welsh Government has clearly stated that it will only intervene where or when there is demonstrable market failure. The Government therefore intends to undertake a review of its land holdings to ensure that their use aligns with wider economic renewal objectives, specific regional priorities and key infrastructure needs. They intend to look at the value of assets they no longer require and redirect the value into other initiatives.
2.2.16 In high areas of market demand the Government will seek to provide information rather than finance and be involved in joint ventures where necessary. In areas with a low market offering, the Government will provide a combination of gap funding (to the developer) and direct provision. Government funding will be match funded against JESSICA Regeneration
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 14 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Investment Fund for Wales (supported by ERDF funding) to promote physical regeneration activities.
2.2.17 With regard to targeting business support, the Government has decided to concentrate its resources where it can add most value, i.e. beyond what the private sector can deliver, and addressing issues of market failure or significant demand. The focus will now be on sectors as well as targeted interventions. There are a number of sectors where the Government will focus its attention; these are: ICT;
Energy and environment;
Advanced materials and manufacturing;
Creative industries;
Life sciences;
Financial and professional services;
Agriculture;
Tourism; and
Construction.
2.2.18 The Government intends to establish development plans for each of these sectors based around skills, R&D, clustering and added value linked with universities and research infrastructure.
Key Economic Development Initiatives
Principles and Priorities for 2014-2020 EU Programmes in Wales
2.2.19 On current evidence it appears likely that West Wales and the Valleys, including Swansea and Neath Port Talbot, will qualify for a successor to the Convergence programme (and East Wales for a much smaller amount through an equivalent to the Competitiveness programme).
2.2.20 The 2014-2020 European programmes in Wales are being prepared between the Welsh Government and the UK Government on the detail of the programmes during 2013 to help ensure that any programmes can begin in early 2014. Whilst still to be confirmed, the priorities which are emerging from the discussions at government level, as recorded in an Statement by the Welsh Government (8th May 2012) are:
Focus on the creation of sustainable jobs and growth, and facilitate the role of the private sector;
Achieve a balance between greater thematic concentration and more effective spatial targeting to maximise the impact of funding;
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 15 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Contribute to a transformational impact on the Welsh economy, particularly for West Wales and the Valleys, and the prosperity and well-being of its citizens; and
Ensure the sustainability of future investments. This means having clear exit strategies that fully consider the role of the private sector and building social resilience.
2.2.21 The edict from the government is a need for achieving clear added value compared with other ways of supporting and delivering policy, backed up with a sound evidence-base for contributing to sustainable jobs and growth. In particular, this should include integration between interventions to deliver realistic ambitions.
2.2.22 The future investment priorities for the Structural Funds are likely to include:
Education, Skills and Lifelong Learning (including actions aimed at early years);
Research and Innovation;
Helping people into work;
Sustainable transport and network infrastructure;
Enterprise and SME competitiveness;
Sustainable energy and energy efficiency; and
Access to and exploitation of the Digital Economy.
2.2.23 It is also likely that the funds will not support:
General business support and grant-based business support, other than for R&D or targeted interventions;
Primary or “blue-skies” research;
Engagement and inclusion measures where support could restrict the ability for private and third sector organisations to operate; and
Labour market interventions which are more ‘social’ in nature, with little prospect of outcomes which enhance employability.
Wales Infrastructure Investment Plan 2012
2.2.24 The WIIP sets out the Welsh Government’s strategic investment priorities, which provides a detailed account of sectoral investment plans through to 2014/15 and sets out the key elements of a new approach to infrastructure investment. With regard to economic development this means concentrating resources where they can add most value, acting as an enabler for growth for the economy.
2.2.25 The future focus of land reclamation activities will be strongly aligned with projects that meet specific economic development objectives, or when there is a requirement for such funding
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 16 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
to meet wider Welsh Government objectives. This will be based on either a locational (with City Regions potentially attracting investment), and/or targeted towards key sectors. These key sectors are energy and environment, construction, tourism, finance and professional services, creative industries, life sciences, advanced materials and manufacturing, ICT, and food and farming.
2.2.26 Other key infrastructure investments in the study area include completing the final part of the Port Talbot Peripheral Distributor Road and continuing investment in the regeneration of the Western Valleys and Swansea.
2.3 Local Policies and Strategies for the Economy
Swansea
Swansea Local Development Plan
2.3.1 Swansea Council is currently at the Pre-Deposit Plan Preparation and Involvement stage. The Council produced a candidate sites assessment methodology following consultation in September 2010 and has compiled a candidate sites register of all sites submitted.
2.3.2 The assessment of candidate sites is an on-going process. A report setting out all the sites that failed the initial stage 1 has already been produced. The detailed assessment of the remaining sites is continuing, which will partly be informed by the findings in this report. The conclusions of this study will also inform the employment land policies and employment site allocations in the Deposit LDP. It will also provide key evidence to support the LDP Preferred Strategy including the influence on future housing growth requirements.
Swansea Unitary Development Plan, 2008
2.3.3 The City and County of Swansea Unitary Development Plan (UDP) was adopted in November 2008. In spatial terms the UDP emphasises that Swansea’s current employment land strategy is based on:
The regeneration of the City Centre as a focus for new office, retail and leisure development, in order to reflect its importance within the wider region.
Complementary Waterfront regeneration, particularly capitalising on the R&D capacity of the City’s universities in support of innovation economy aspirations.
Strategic employment sites at SA1, Swansea Vale, and Swansea West Business Park to complement a regionally significant opportunity at Felindre, particularly for high value added uses.
Local employment sites within existing industrial estates to serve local need.
Rural employment opportunities.
2.3.4 Strategic activities within the Plan include:
Develop Felindre as a high quality business park.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 17 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Develop SA1 and Swansea Vale as high quality mixed use strategic development locations.
Develop Swansea West Industrial Park as a strategic development location.
Identify a number of local development sites to meet local employment needs.
Strengthen of the role of the City Centre as the key driver and economic hub of the regional economy (Chapter 6: City Centre Action Area refers to this).
Support the regeneration of district and local centres.
Promote further improvements and developments at appropriate locations around Swansea Bay.
Recognise that strategic employment sites in the wider Swansea Bay area, such as Coed Darcy Urban Village and Baglan Energy Park, will be important contributors to the County’s economy.
Undertake the comprehensive regeneration of the Tawe Riverside Corridor.
Promote the provisions of the waterfront masterplan for Swansea Bay that emanates from the WSP, particularly with regard to land and development opportunities south of Fabian Way to the east of SA1.
2.3.5 The UDP features a number of relevant policies guiding future employment provision. These are:
Policy EC1 allocates a considerable amount of land (379.7 ha) across the County at a range of sites, from local level up to those of more regional significance. Within these there are numerous Supplementary Planning Guidance (SPG) documents for guiding developments within these sites.
The Felindre site at junction 46 of the M4 is identified as a strategic employment site of regional significance and a major opportunity in the revitalisation of the local economy. The site extends to around 190ha in total, which includes a vast greenfield area identified as contingency land to be released once the brownfield element of the site is developed. The site is jointly owned by the Council and Welsh Government. In terms of its size, location and dedicated motorway access, the site is unique in Wales. As well as being of regional significance, the development of Felindre is therefore seen as a major component of Swansea’s regeneration aspirations that complements the portfolio of more general employment sites within the County and across South Wales. The site has an extant planning permission for a ‘Strategic Business Park’ for B1 and B2 uses to accommodate emerging industries, high tech manufacturing and high level services.
Policy EC2 sets out the development principles for SA1 Swansea Waterfront. It is a key element in the Council’s strategy for the regeneration of Swansea as a vibrant and distinctive Waterfront City. It comprises approximately 40ha of former dockland on the
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 18 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
eastside of the City, which has been transformed into a prestigious mixed use development that includes significant employment generating development.
Policy EC3 protects established industrial and commercial areas of the County by resisting development for non-business uses where such proposals would limit the range and quality of sites available for employment development.
Policy EC11 promotes small-scale rural business development and farm diversification in rural areas, primarily within settlements.
Policy EC16 proposes new or improved recreational and tourism facilities at specific destinations around Swansea Bay which capitalise on the seafront aspect and contribute towards the regeneration of the Bay.
Swansea 2020: Swansea’s Economic Regeneration Strategy
2.3.6 This Strategy, produced under the banner of the Swansea Economic Regeneration Partnership (SERP), supports the development and economic regeneration in the city and county of Swansea over 15 years to 2020.
2.3.7 The vision is that by 2020 Swansea will be:
An internationally competitive economy, with Output (GVA per Head), Productivity (GVA per Worker) and Wage rates at least equal to normal at the UK (Output & Wage rates) and England and Wales (Productivity) levels.
Wales’s leading centre for the Knowledge Economy, recognised for its adoption of innovation, and anticipation of market and technology change.
Operating with an economically active population equal in size in percentage terms to the Great Britain average, known for its high skills, and providing critical labour mass for serving priority Focus Clusters.
A proud, vibrant and ambitious city, at the heart of a wider region, where people want to live and work.
2.3.8 Overlaying this vision, and to ensure that it is achieved, is a series of Strategic Aims, Operational Aims, Cross Cutting Themes and a short-term action plan which are to be regularly reviewed. The Strategy recognises that the vision is an extremely challenging one but is necessary if Swansea is to be more prosperous in the future.
2.3.9 The strategy aims to drive economic growth through the creation of a higher value innovative economy that will primarily foster investment and business success in the following ‘Focus Clusters’ economic sectors: IT & Communications, Life Sciences, Professional Services, Tourism, Marine Industries and Creative Industries.
Swansea City Centre Strategic Framework
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 19 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
2.3.10 The City Centre Strategic Framework sets out the blueprint for the development of Swansea City Centre over the next 10 years. It provides a vision which is based upon a carefully researched evidence base and analysis of the City Centre and its potential. The study found that, at the time of reporting in 2005, the City Centre supported 24,000 jobs, representing a low proportion of overall city employment compared to other UK cities. Of these, it is estimated that there were 4,510 office jobs in the centre. Looking forward, it was forecast that between 2003 and 2026 that approximately 7,800 new jobs would be created in the City Centre in the financial and business services sector.
2.3.11 The vision of the Framework is based on a number of objectives, including growing and diversifying the economy ‘to support the development of existing and new sectors in the economy, particularly growth sectors (financial and business services) and the knowledge economy (including creative industries, media and design). The masterplan sets out a range of proposals to make Swansea a “vibrant, exciting, attractive, sustainable, cultured European Waterfront City Centre, attracting businesses and visitors, driving the economy and enhancing the quality of life of residents of Swansea and South West Wales”.
City and County of Swansea Rural Local Development Strategy 2007-2013
2.3.12 The Swansea Rural Development Partnership has the following vision:
“By 2020 we want to see vibrant, empowered and connected local communities delivering innovative and sustainable solutions to current and future economic, social and environmental challenges to enhance individual and community well-being, and in doing so contributing to the success of the wider Swansea Bay region.”
2.3.13 To achieve this, the Swansea rural development objectives are categorised in the following four themes: Supporting Rural Business;
Building Sustainable Rural Communities;
Tackling Economic Inactivity;
Skills Development; and
Sustainable Transport.
2.3.14 Additionally, Rural Swansea Action, a local action group, has a strategy to see a local approach to rural development, and encourage networking and working together:
Implementing innovative approaches to community economic regeneration;
Implementing co-operation projects;
Developing the communication and networking of local partners and partnerships; and
Utilising a bottom-up, inclusive approach, promoting entrepreneurship and emphasising endogenous rural development.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 20 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Other Key Economic Development Projects
2.3.15 Running alongside efforts to stimulate the economy by bringing forward new serviced employment land and premises, the Council and its partners have established a number of projects aimed at providing business support and further developing the skills base of the resident population. These projects provide the important building blocks for supporting the growth of emerging sectors and businesses.
2.3.16 The Swansea Economic Regeneration Partnership has identified a number of priority projects that will help to deliver the Vision and strategic aims of Swansea 2020, which includes:
Beyond Bricks and Mortar – a Council initiative aimed at securing training and employment opportunities, and promoting local sourcing, through the application of social benefit clauses in public sector contracts, particularly physical regeneration contracts
South West Workways – a regional ESF funded project covering Neath Port Talbot, Swansea, Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire. The project provides tailored support to economically inactive and unemployed individuals to help them move into (and closer to) the labour market
Institute of Life Science – research arm of Swansea University’s College of Medicine. The first phase has already delivered a state-of-the-art building, housing specialists in medical research, business incubation and technology transfer. The second phase provides a further 6,000 sqm of facilities including an extended range of fully operational business incubation units, a Clinical Research Facility, an Imaging Suite, the Centre for Health Information, Research and Evaluation (CHIRAL) and the Centre for NanoHealth.
Waterfront City – holistic programme of physical regeneration initiatives to support economic growth and address deprivation in Swansea City Centre, encompassing: Property Development Fund; Building Enhancement Programme; public realm enhancements to City Centre and waterfront; Boulevard (environmental improvements and highway works to improve accessibility and link the City Centre to the waterfront).
Strategic Employment Sites – programme of employment site allocation and preparation to ensure Swansea has an adequate portfolio of employment sites to deliver the economic regeneration agenda. The three key sites are Felindre, Swansea Vale and Swansea West. (City Centre and SA1 are included in other programmes of work.)
BEES (Building Enterprise Education in Swansea) – programme of work to support the development of enterprise skills among young people in education, training, employment or who are not economically active. A Welsh Enterprise Academy is soon to be launched, based on the model of the Peter Jones Academy in Birmingham where students set up their own business.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 21 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Swansea University Science & Innovation Campus – although based in Neath Port Talbot, the proposed Science & Innovation Campus will have a significant impact on the Swansea economy and therefore has been identified as a priority project by the SERP.
Innovation Zone (IZ) – The aim of the IZ is to create jobs and wealth by supporting the growth of innovative micro businesses in Swansea, facilitating the creation of new enterprises by providing an environment to support graduates to set up their own businesses and attract new businesses to Swansea through inward investment marketing activities. Support is targeted at sectors in which Swansea’s Universities have research and teaching expertise: advanced engineering; life sciences; science based R&D; creative industries and digital, along with supporting professional business services. The IZ will create the right conditions in Swansea for these businesses to thrive, through the provision of high quality floorspace, co-ordination of business and innovation support, mentoring, access to finance and a skilled workforce. Whilst this is a Swansea wide initiative it will focus on Swansea Waterfront, in particular: Swansea Docks & SA1; City Centre; Tawe Riverside; and existing University Campuses.
Neath Port Talbot
Neath Port Talbot Local Development Plan, Pre Deposit Plan September 2011
2.3.17 The Neath Port Talbot Council have prepared their Preferred Strategy for the Local Development Plan (LDP), which is programmed to supersede the UDP in 2014.
2.3.18 The overall aim of the LDP will be to designate enough employment land to meet Neath Port Talbot’s identified needs. Embedded in this is a theme of the LDP which is to ‘Promote a Sustainable Economy’ with the overall aim to provide a diverse range of job opportunities close to public transport, housing and infrastructure which matches the skill base of the population and improves economic activity rates.
2.3.19 The LDP objective to achieve this is to “Support a thriving, sustainable, diverse economy which provides a range of good quality, accessible job opportunities, encourages local businesses to grow and the tourism industry to flourish.”
2.3.20 This latest plan identifies employment in the County Borough to have a relatively high proportion of jobs in the manufacturing and public sectors and a relatively low proportion in the service sector. That it is mostly located along the M4 corridor where Tata Steel and the Council are the largest employers; while the Valleys are dominated by employment in extractive industries.
2.3.21 The key economic issues that this raises include:
High levels of commuting out of the area to access employment and facilities;
Higher than average levels of unemployment particularly amongst the younger generation; and
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 22 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
The valley communities are losing people, jobs and services, and are increasingly becoming dormitories with residents travelling elsewhere for an increasing range of facilities, services and employment.
2.3.22 The existing UDP commitments along the M4 corridor are identified as suitable for helping to meet the need of adjoining authorities with regards to the regional need, and with a particular focus on large employers, heavy industry and manufacturing. The LDP therefore is focused on encouraging the growth of small businesses, especially within the Valley communities, in order to ‘support business and economic activity and promote the creation of a wider range of employment opportunities across the County Borough…[such as] innovative forms of employment, including tourism, leisure and recreation may be appropriate uses’.
2.3.23 The Plan identifies the existing (UDP) employment commitments will be more than sufficient to meet the job needs generated by the moderate growth option, and will also enable the County Borough to continue to fulfil its regional role within the Swansea Bay and Travel to Work Areas.
2.3.24 The preferred strategy is for moderate growth and the economic implications are:
Economic opportunities will thus be focused on locations adjacent to the M4 corridor, including Coed D’Arcy, Fabian Way, Baglan Bay and Port Talbot Docks, to draw maximum benefits.
Promote R&D opportunities to build on Glamorgan University's presence at Baglan and the proposal to site Swansea University's Science and Innovation Campus at Fabian Way. This offers the platform on which to build the County Borough's knowledge-based economy.
Complement this offer with an increasing emphasis on providing opportunities for office and service based industries together with Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs).
Encourage the creation and growth of SMEs with particular emphasis for supporting SME growth within the Valleys.
2.3.25 The Pre-Deposit Plan identifies that two strategic employment sites will be promoted at the Glanrhyd Industrial Estate in Pontardawe and Glynneath Business Park in the Valley. On these sites, the existing UDP Land Bank for employment uses comprises 19 hectares.
2.3.26 The Plan acknowledged that demand for new business and industrial premises within the Valleys in Neath Port Talbot has proved very weak. Also, that many of the future job opportunities will be provided from the tourism and leisure industries and mining.
2.3.27 Existing employment allocations make adequate provision for larger units and the focus will be on supporting small businesses within settlement limits, protecting existing business and industrial premises and promoting alternative ways of working, such as working from home.
2.3.28 The available employment land bank comprises 313 ha, with 258 ha located within the coastal/M4 corridor where market interest is highest. Existing vacant commercial premises
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 23 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
comprise 45,613 sqm of floorspace. As a consequence, Neath Port Talbot will be able to meet not only its own needs for employment but also make its contribution to the Swansea Bay and Travel to Work Area. A number of representations were made to the Pre-Deposit Plan which questioned the oversupply of employment land and the impact this oversupply may have on the market and also the projected level of housing. Neath Port Talbot Council have subsequently re-assessed the UDP employment allocations; and the figures in the Pre- Deposit Plan have been refined and revised to reflect the current situation.
2.3.29 Relevant employment related policies include:
Policy 14 sets out the strategic employment sites focusing development on the key employment sites in the Fabian Way/ M4 corridor.
Policy 15 protects existing employment sites.
Policy 16 Tourism – support and enhance tourist opportunities. Tourism and leisure have transformed Neath Port Talbot's identity. It is now identified as an adventure sports (and in particular mountain biking) destination at a national scale.
2.3.30 Alternative growth strategies have been considered. These included very high growth, high growth, medium, moderate, static population, declining and high decline. According to NPTCBC, a number of representations to the pre-deposit plan questioned the rationale and methodology behind identifying the projected levels of growth. This study sets out to re- assess NPT’s level of growth.
Neath Port Talbot Economy & Employment Topic Paper, December 2011
2.3.31 This document presents the economic and employment context of Neath Port Talbot, and creates the backdrop to the Preferred Strategy for the Local Development Plan (LDP).
2.3.32 The Preferred Strategy with regards to the economy and employment is for a moderate level of growth with a particular focus of development along the M4 corridor and the main urban areas. In line with this, key employment sites are identified, the majority of which are allocated along the M4 corridor and some of which are part of mixed use developments. In addition to strategic employment sites, the Preferred Strategy also protects existing employment sites.
2.3.33 A priority is also made for growth in the Valley communities, particularly those of Pontardawe and Glynneath/Resolven. In recognition of the difficulty in attracting development in the Valley communities, the Strategy promotes growth based on housing, tourism and small scale employment in individual communities with the aim of achieving net in-migration.
Neath Port Talbot Waterfront Regeneration Strategy
2.3.34 This document sets out the Council’s strategy for the physical and economic regeneration of the waterfront area of the County Borough. It identifies several major development sites, including:
Baglan Bay;
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 24 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Baglan Energy Park;
Coed D’Arcy;
Peripheral Distributor Road (PDR) Corridor (Port Talbot Docks, Green Park, Gas Works, Port Talbot Industrial Estate);
Fabian Way;
Junction 38; and
Neath Estuary.
2.3.35 Two of the strategic goals cover employment land. These are:
Strategic goal 2 – bring forward investment of major strategic regeneration sites in the area of Port Talbot that will attract major new investment, create employment opportunities and spread prosperity to surrounding communities.
Strategic goal 3 – develop existing and establish major new employment sites within the area of Port Talbot that meet the needs of modern business, strengthen the local economy and ensure the provision of employment opportunities.
Port Talbot Harbourside and Town Centre Development Framework SPG (April 2011)
2.3.36 Supplementary to the Neath Port Talbot UDP (2008), this document provides information on the type of development considered appropriate within Port Talbot’s Harbourside and town centre. The Council’s vision for Port Talbot is of an area that plays a significant role as a focus for economic and environmental regeneration. To achieve this, the following six strategic goals are set out: i. To develop the town of Port Talbot as a hub for commercial, residential, social and employment activities through the integrated physical regeneration of the town centre and the attraction of new investment.
ii. To bring forward the development of major strategic regeneration sites in the area of Port Talbot that will attract major new investment, create employment opportunities and spread prosperity to surrounding communities.
iii. To develop existing and establish new employment sites within Port Talbot that meet the needs of modern business, strengthen the local economy and support the improvement of employment opportunity.
iv. To develop high quality sites for tourism and leisure that will attract visitors and new investment to improve the image and environment of Port Talbot Waterfront.
v. To improve the physical fabric within the urban areas, improving quality of life and making the area of Port Talbot an attractive place in which to live, work and invest.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 25 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
vi. To improve the transport and communications infrastructure, to ensure that Port Talbot maximises its locational advantages to the benefit of the local economy and population.
2.3.37 In accordance with these goals, the Preferred Strategy for regeneration relates to four key principles which in turn translate into priority actions for both the Town Centre and Harbourside. It is anticipated that these will be implemented by 2017.
Neath Port Talbot Western Valleys Strategy, July 2006
2.3.38 This 10 year strategy sets out individual action plans for each of the five Valleys in the County Borough of Neath Port Talbot to improve the social and economic prospects of citizens. The Western Valleys action programme aims…
… “to ensure that by 2015 the Valleys of Neath Talbot become stronger, more vibrant and sustainable places – with “Positive Futures”.
2.3.39 To help achieve this, the Valleys Framework sets out a co-ordinated programme for all the Valleys. The implementation of the overall strategy will be overseen by a new Valleys Team created within the Environmental Directorate of the Council.
2.3.40 Since the launch of the Western Valleys Strategy, a local regeneration plan has been produced for each individual Valley. The Valley Area Regeneration Plans (VARPs) identify the issues, needs and opportunities of the Valleys to ensure that the correct projects are supported. This includes positively encouraging small scale businesses and live-work units where appropriate; and serviced building plots may be provided.
Neath Port Talbot Social Enterprise Strategy 2010-2013
2.3.41 This Strategy aims to inspire, transform and liberate social enterprises in the County Borough, which are recognised as having the potential to deliver employment at the local level and stimulate economic growth. The Council’s objectives concerning the future development of social enterprises fall into the following five overarching categories:
i. Development of the sector;
ii. Training, development and sharing of best practice;
iii. Marketing;
iv. Partnership structure; and
v. Support.
2.3.42 The intention is that the delivery of the finalised action plan and targets will mainly be delivered through the ‘One Stop Shop’ which will offer consistent support to potential, emerging and existing social enterprises.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 26 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
2.4 Conclusion
National
2.4.1 The Assembly Government’s Planning Policy Wales (PPW) sets out the Government’s economic objective to provide for sustainable and prosperous economic growth through all land uses. This establishes the role of the planning system in delivering these objectives and how they should be integrated with social and environmental objectives. These include guidance for supporting employment allocations in town centres and around strategic road corridors; and planning positively for small scale rural employment but without allocating specifically for sites in rural locations.
2.4.2 The Wales Spatial Plan (WSP) sets a vision for the next 20 years in the sub-regional chapter for Swansea Bay, which includes increasing competitiveness while building complementary links between key settlements through spreading prosperity. No specific priorities are given to the economy, but it sets an ambitious long term target for 80% of working age in employment.
2.4.3 However, the recently published Wales Infrastructure Investment Plan does identify priorities for investment. This sets out plans for investing in growth including land reclamation targeting key sectors, and more local investment for completing the Port Talbot Peripheral Distributor Road and continuing investment in the regeneration of the Western Valleys and Swansea.
2.4.4 While these two plans do note the importance of setting an economic vision and for making land allocations to show support for the economy backed with available evidence, it remains unclear how to effectively translate the Wales Spatial Plan or Planning Policy Wales into planning policy and guidance at the local level. A new TAN for supporting the economy is to be published next year which will do this. For now, it will be the purpose of this study to provide the available evidence and offer suitable recommendations.
Local
Swansea
2.4.5 Swansea has a relatively recently adopted UDP for guiding development. It also has an ambitious economic plan for the County set out in Swansea 2020, the Economic Regeneration Strategy.
2.4.6 Swansea’s main economic focus is to generate wealth by growing a higher value knowledge based economy that offers higher skilled and higher paid employment opportunities. It also aims to spread prosperity across the city and county.
2.4.7 Despite this smart growth ambition, the UDP includes an allocation of some 380 ha of employment land across the city, although this is dominated by the allocation at Felindre. It is also acknowledged that strategic locations like Baglan Energy Park within Neath Port Talbot County Councils administrative boundary will also contribute to enhancing Swansea’s
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 27 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
economy. So again, this raises a question about planning for too much space, this time in Swansea.
2.4.8 At first consideration, this seems ambitious and potentially harmful, not least because excess supply undermines development viability, but also because the public sector’s limited resources may be distracted to sites unlikely to deliver either growth or prosperity. However, it is likely that the oversupply is more a reflection on a lack of appropriate available sites in right locations to support investment, which this study seeks to address.
2.4.9 We look more closely at some of these issues in the next stage of the work, covering the future growth potential by considering the demand for and supply of employment land, including the assessments of Swansea’s sites.
Neath Port Talbot
2.4.10 In response to growing a sustainable and prosperous area, the Neath Port Talbot Preferred Strategy for the LDP is planning for housing growth along with ‘supporting a thriving, sustainable, diverse economy which provides a range of good quality, accessible job opportunities, encourages local businesses to grow and the tourism industry to flourish’. In meeting this objective, the Council consider that sufficient employment land will be allocated to meet local and regional demands. In doing so, it seeks to designate enough employment land to meet Neath Port Talbot’s, and part of Swansea Bay’s, identified needs. This report is looking further at identifying an appropriate economic growth strategy.
2.4.11 The principal focus is for development along the M4 corridor and the main urban areas. Further priorities are given to developing Port Talbot’s Harbourside and Town Centre Development over the medium term of the plan period.
2.4.12 Priority sites are also identified for growth in the Valley communities in recognition of the difficulty in attracting development. In doing so the LDP has what should be considered a high aspiration for small scale employment in individual communities which support not only enough jobs for local working residents but jobs for those living beyond the settlements’ boundaries.
2.4.13 A question may be asked about how achievable is development in allocating land where there is not a strong market, such as the Valleys; for if a site is not taken up, then it will not add to output or jobs. Supporting these aspirations are the Western Valleys action programme and Neath Port Talbot Social Enterprises strategies, both with frameworks for action. The key action should be to plan positively for economic development, including growing the workforce to supply the ambitious plans for employment land demand, which we come onto later in this study.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 28 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
3 The Local and Regional Economy
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 This chapter profiles the local economies of Neath Port Talbot and Swansea under three main headings:
Workplace economy – we examine the local economies in terms of their competitiveness, what kinds of businesses operate within their boundaries, what they do, and hence what kinds of space they need.
Resident workforce – we assess what the resident populations have to offer by examining rates of economic activity and the demographic and skill profiles within the study areas.
Sustainability – we review where workplace demand comes into balance with resident supply by considering differences in prosperity between workers and residents, and travel to work patterns.
3.1.2 The primary study areas are defined by the local authority areas of Neath Port Talbot County Borough and the City and County of Swansea. Throughout, these are set in the context of the wider South Wales area1 and also to Wales and Great Britain (GB) as a whole. Where data is available we also analyse three sub-areas within Neath Port Talbot County Borough where there is expectation of differing functioning economies. The three areas are Neath, Port Talbot and the rest of the county borough (referred to as NPT Valleys). Swansea is treated as one functional area because of the strong influence that the City of Swansea has on the rest of the county. The city, as well as being the economic hub, is also where the vast majority of residents and businesses are located, so there would be little value in separating the City and County into smaller areas for this study.
3.1.3 The data shown is the latest available at the time of the study.
3.2 Workplace Economy
3.2.1 This section profiles the performance of the Neath Port Talbot and Swansea economies in relation to the number and type of businesses and employment located there.
Businesses
3.2.2 According to the latest Annual Business Inquiry statistics2, in 2008 Neath Port Talbot and Swansea had some 3,600 and 7,400 employment business units respectively. Table 3.1 shows that both Neath Port Talbot and Swansea have a larger proportion of small-medium sized businesses (11-49 employees) and a smaller proportion of micro businesses (fewer
1 The South Wales study area has been defined as: Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Vale of Glamorgan and Torfaen. 2 More recent information on business numbers has been published by the Welsh Governtment, however we prefer to use the latest data available on business numbers from the ONS since this is a widely used and an accepted source, and therefore is likely to be more robust.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 29 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
than 10 employees) than the wider areas of South Wales, Wales and GB as a whole. The difference is most distinct in Neath Port Talbot which correspondingly has a lower proportion of large businesses with 200 or more employees than the South Wales and Wales averages and the proportion in Swansea.
Table 3.1 Number of business units by size, 2008 Neath Port South Swansea Wales GB Talbot Wales No. % No. % % % % 1-10 employees 3,000 81.3% 6,100 82.3% 83.2% 83.8% 85.0% 11-49 employees 500 15.1% 1,000 13.5% 12.8% 12.5% 11.5% 50-199 employees 100 3.2% 200 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 200+ employees -' 0.5% 100 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% Total 3,600 100.0% 7,400 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% All figures have been rounded to the nearest 100 as required by ONS. ‘-‘ = ONS suppressed value. Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008
3.2.3 Large differences can be seen between the three sub-areas of Neath Port Talbot regarding the size of businesses. Table 3.2 shows that Neath and Port Talbot have considerably smaller proportions of micro businesses and larger proportions of small-medium sized businesses than the rest of the valleys. This composition of businesses is expected given the context of each of these sub-areas.
Table 3.2 Percentage of businesses units by size – sub-areas in Neath Port Talbot, 2008 Neath Port Sizeband Neath NPT Valleys Port Talbot Talbot (total) 1-10 employees 79.6% 85.9% 77.1% 81.3% 1-49 employees 15.9% 11.5% 18.6% 15.1% 50-199 employees 3.9% 2.2% 3.7% 3.2% 200 + employees 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008
3.2.4 The over-representation of small-medium sized businesses in Neath Port Talbot is reflected in the size of businesses where employees work. Table 3.3 shows that small-medium businesses account for 28.5% of employee jobs in Neath Port Talbot. However, it can be seen that this is not the case in Swansea which is instead dominated by the 39.6% of employees working in 200 or more employee organisations. This is considerably higher than the corresponding proportion in South Wales, Wales and GB which is likely to be attributable in part to the strong public sector presence which has been retained in Swansea.
Table 3.3 Number of employees by size of business, 2008 Neath Port South Swansea Wales GB Talbot Wales No. % No. % % % % 1-10 employees 9,000 20.8% 18,200 17.5% 21.2% 19.6% 21.0% 11-49 employees 12,300 28.5% 23,000 22.2% 24.6% 23.5% 23.8% 50-199 employees 10,300 23.8% 21,600 20.8% 23.5% 23.5% 23.6% 200+ - 26.9% 41,100 39.6% 30.7% 33.4% 31.6% Total 43,200 100.0% 103,900 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% All figures have been rounded to the nearest 100 as required by ONS. ‘-‘ = ONS suppressed value. Source: Annual Business Inquiry; 2008 = ONS suppressed value.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 30 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
3.2.5 As above, large differences can be seen between the sub-areas of Neath Port Talbot. The most notable of these, as shown in Table 3.4, is the large proportion of employees employed in large businesses in Port Talbot. This reflects the dominance of the steelworks as a major employer in the area, directly employing some 3,500 workers at its Port Talbot plant in 20113.
Table 3.4 Percentage of employees by size of business - by sub-areas, 2008 Neath Port Sizeband Neath NPT Valleys Port Talbot Talbot (total) 1-10 employees 21.1% 29.5% 15.3% 20.8% 11-49 employees 28.8% 33.3% 25.4% 28.5% 50-199 employees 26.0% 25.4% 21.4% 23.8% 200+ employees 24.1% 11.9% 37.9% 26.9% Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008.
3.2.6 There are a number of key employers in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot, which are identified by their employee numbers in Table 3.5.
3.2.7 TaTa Steel, which employs some 3,500 workers in its steel plant in Port Talbot in Neath Port Talbot County Borough, is the largest identified employer.
3.2.8 Swansea has a number of large employers, but mostly in public sector establishments.
Table 3.5 Largest Employers (with more than 500) in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Employer Estimated Employee No.s Local Authority Area Abertawe Bro Morgannwg University 1,000+ Swansea NHS Trust (West Division) Admiral Insurance Services 1,000+ Swansea City and County of Swansea 1,000+ Swansea Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency 1,000+ Swansea Gower College Swansea 1,000+ Swansea Swansea University 1,000+ Swansea Tesco 1,000+ Swansea HSBC Bank plc 750-1,000 Swansea Asda Superstores 500-750 Swansea Department for Work and Pensions 500-750 Swansea Land Registry 500-750 Swansea Swansea Metropolitan University 500-750 Swansea Virgin Media 500-750 Swansea Corus (now TaTa steel) Strip Products 3,500 NPT Port Talbot General Hospital 1,500 NPT Brambles Industrial Services 1,000 NPT Sources: Swansea’s employers sourced from City & County of Swansea, Research and Information Unit, Dec 2011; NPT’s employers sourced online from www.focus.net (Experian, 2006).
3.2.9 The most recent available data for the largest employers highlights the continuing reliance on the public sector, particularly health, for employment in both Swansea and Neath Port Talbot. Some of these jobs have already seen declines, such as Groeswen Hospital which employed 1,500 in NPT and closed in 2007. As seen later, since the trend in employee jobs change has been fairly static since 2006, it might be assumed that many of the public sector jobs which have declined will have shifted into the private sector, and dispersed among a larger number of smaller private sector employers.
3 See Neath Port Talbot, Local Development Plan, Economy and Employment Topic Paper, Sept 2011
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 31 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Employment Type
3.2.10 Statistics for 20104, the latest available data, indicate that there were 43,900 and 107,100 jobs in Neath Port Talbot and Swansea respectively (see Table 3.6). The majority (19,400) of Neath Port Talbot jobs were located in Port Talbot, which reflects the cluster of employment associated with the steelworks. These figures fail to include non-VAT and/or non-PAYE registered businesses and undercounts employment in agriculture (see below), so it is expected that the total number of jobs within the study area is marginally higher than the statistics.
3.2.11 Together Neath Port Talbot and Swansea account for 18% of jobs in South Wales (5% and 13% respectively), which is only 1% higher than their collective share of the resident population (6% and 11% respectively). It might be expected that Swansea would take a greater proportional share of the nation’s jobs than its population; however Cardiff is such a strong employment area that it heavily skews the location of jobs in Wales, and South Wales in particular, into one place.
Table 3.6 Latest Employment Estimates, 2010 Employees Employment* Neath 11,300 11,900 NPT Valleys 11,700 12,600 Port Talbot 18,700 19,400 Neath Port Talbot (total) 41,700 43,900 Swansea 102,600 107,100 South Wales 814,100 855,400 Wales 1,150,900 1,259,000 Great Britain 26,082,100 27,814,900 All figures have been rounded to the nearest 100 as required by ONS. *Employment includes employees plus business owners and directors. Source: Business Register and Employment Survey.
Part-time Workers
3.2.12 Part time workers would normally be sharing workspaces in an economy, and therefore have less demand on space. In Neath Port Talbot, the proportion of part-time (i.e. who have less than 30 hours employment per week) workers is close to the proportions for South Wales and Wales as a whole (see Table 3.7).
3.2.13 In contrast, Swansea has significantly more part-time workers than the regional and national levels at 41% of employees. This is likely to reflect the economic and population bases of the city, including the high representation of an economically active student population, but will also be influenced by the distance between jobs and the labour force; part time workers are less likely to travel long distances to work. Additionally the high proportion of part-time workers is likely to be due to the high proportion of public service and service based sector workers found in Swansea who are typically more likely to work part-time.
3.2.14 Disaggregation of the data from Neath Port Talbot shows a significantly higher proportion of part-time workers in Neath (43%) and a significantly lower proportion in Port Talbot (28%).
4 Based on the Business Register and Employment Survey, 2010.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 32 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Table 3.7 Part-time Employees, 2010 No. % of all employees Neath 4,900 43% NPT Valleys 4,200 36% Port Talbot 5,200 28% Neath Port Talbot (total) 14,200 34% Swansea 42,000 41% South Wales 287,400 35% Wales 411,200 36% Great Britain 8,419,200 32% All figures have been rounded to the nearest 100. Source: Business Register and Employment Survey.
Homeworkers
3.2.15 Data from the 2001 Census provides an indication of the proportion of workers within the study areas working mainly from home. Again, like part-time workers, these residents have a lower requirement for workspace within the economy. Table 3.8 shows that 7% and 8% of working residents in Neath Port Talbot and Swansea work from home respectively which is lower than the national average. Disaggregation of Neath Port Talbot data in Table 3.8 shows that the proportion of home workers in each of the sub-areas is fairly constant at 6- 7%. The most surprising figure in these statistics is that the NPT Valleys fail to achieve many more homeworking jobs than the average, despite its remoteness from the main employment centres. Consequently, working residents in the Valley areas are likely to have to travel further and longer to work.
Table 3.8 Homeworkers, 2001 Working from home
No. % of all working residents Neath 15,485 6% NPT Valleys 21,466 7% Port Talbot 13,121 6% Neath Port Talbot (total) 3,301 7% Swansea 6,655 8% South Wales 67,573 8% Wales 115,323 10% England and Wales 2,170,547 9% Source: Census 2001
3.3 Economic Structure
3.3.1 Table 3.9 shows the broad sector make-up of Neath Port Talbot and Swansea and comparator economies. There are some key differences between the two economies and the wider economy of Wales.
3.3.2 In Swansea, Financial & insurance and Public Administration & Defence are the most over- represented. The latter, which accounts for some 12,200 employment jobs in Swansea, will make the economy less resilient to the public sector cut backs seen in recent years.
3.3.3 Neath Port Talbot is notably over-represented in Mining, quarrying & utilities and Manufacturing. These two sectors represent 24% of Neath Port Talbot employment and reemphasises the importance of the Port Talbot steelworks to the local economy. This would
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 33 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
suggest that the Neath Port Talbot economy is vulnerable given its heavy reliance on a sector expected to continue to decline in the future. The County Borough is also under- represented in the two sectors which offer high value employment, i.e. Information & Communication and Financial & Insurance sectors.
3.3.4 Therefore, in general there are strong differences between the two study areas in the jobs that they attract, which may result in a complementary relationship. But as a whole, neither economy is dominated by particularly high value sectors.
Table 3.9 Broad Employment Structure, 2010 Neath Port South Great Swansea Wales Talbot Wales Britain No. % No. % % % Agriculture, forestry & 100* 0.2%* 100* 0.1%* 0.1%* 5.1% 1.7% fishing Mining, quarrying & 1,600 3.7% 900 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.2% utilities Manufacturing 8,900 20.2% 4,400 4.2% 10.0% 10.3% 8.5% Construction 2,800 6.3% 4,800 4.4% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% Motor trades 600 1.4% 2,300 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% Wholesale 1,300 2.9% 2,600 2.4% 2.9% 2.8% 4.1% Retail 4,900 11.1% 12,800 11.9% 11.7% 11.2% 10.3% Transport & storage 1,500 3.3% 2,800 2.6% 3.5% 3.3% 4.4% inc postal Accommodation & 2,400 5.4% 7,800 7.3% 7.0% 7.2% 6.6% food services Information & 300 0.8% 2,700 2.5% 2.1% 1.9% 3.8% communication Financial & insurance 400 0.8% 4,000 3.7% 2.8% 2.2% 3.8% Property 700 1.5% 1,000 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% Professional, scientific 1,800 4.1% 4,100 3.8% 4.6% 4.3% 7.4% & technical Business admin & 2,100 4.8% 8,700 8.1% 6.9% 5.9% 7.8% support services Public admin & 2,800 6.4% 12,200 11.4% 8.1% 7.3% 5.4% defence Education 3,600 8.3% 12,200 11.4% 10.0% 9.6% 9.1% Health 6,400 14.5% 19,300 18.0% 16.2% 15.3% 12.8% Arts, entertainment, recreation & other 1,800 4.0% 4,400 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.7% services Total 44,000 100% 107,100 100% 100.0% 100.0% 100% All figures have been rounded to the nearest 100 as required by ONS. * These figures exclude farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000). Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, 2010.
Growing and High-Value Sectors
3.3.5 An analysis of the strength of industry sectors in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot is presented in Figures 3.2 and 3.3 respectively. These bubble charts show the relative size of sectors in the local area by the size of the bubble, and the local sector representation compared to Great Britain5 on the horizontal axis and each sector’s recent national
5 Location quotients are used to identify which sectors are being under- and over-represented, based on the geographical concentration of an activity in a particular region set against a reference average
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 34 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
employment growth on the vertical axis6. This allows to us to assess which locally significant sectors have higher than average (GB average) number of employees in the local area and whether they fall into the category of declining or growing sectors nationally. We look at each chart in turn. Swansea
3.3.6 The following can be observed about Swansea’s business sectors:
Sectors located in the bottom left quadrant have been experiencing negative annual growth rates since 1998 nationally and are under-represented locally compared to the national average. Most manufacturing sectors in Swansea fall into this category. Fortunately, most of these sectors are relatively small, with the largest being ‘manufacture of metals and fabrications’.
Sectors located in the bottom right quadrant are those, which are over-represented locally but have also been experiencing decline nationally. There are no key sectors in Swansea that fall into this category, except the case for ‘the manufacturing of timber, rubber, plastic and other’.
Sectors located in the top right quadrant of the chart combine above-average representation with employment growth. This is particularly the case for the ‘public services, administration and defence’ and ‘health and social work’ sectors, which are also two of the very largest sectors. It should be noted however that whilst Swansea has retained a strong public sector presence over the years, the impact of the public sector employment cuts linked to the Government’s efforts to reduce the public sector funding deficit, will significantly impact on the future growth of these sectors.
Sectors located in the top left quadrant are sectors that generate employment growth, but are still relatively under-represented in comparison to the national level. These are principally in ‘financial and business services’, ‘other service activities’, construction and ‘transport and storage’. These sectors could represent the greatest potential for growing the economy in the future. Swansea has already established plans for supporting a range of high technology research and development sectors linked to the universities, which will support the business services offer. Anecdotally we are told that the presence of universities is already helping to deliver wider benefits in attracting investment and the generation of spin out activities.
Neath Port Talbot
3.3.7 The following can be observed about Neath Port Talbot’s business sectors:
Sectors located in the bottom left quadrant have been experiencing negative annual growth rates since 1998 nationally and are under-represented locally compared to the
(Wales in this case). We take a sector as being under-represented if the location quotient is less than or equal to 0.7 and over-represented if greater than or equal to 1.3. 6 The graph shows employment growth between 1998 and 2008 and therefore does not take into consideration the current recession. The recession has hit all sectors, in particular the construction and financial sectors.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 35 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
national average. Some of Neath Port Talbot’s manufacturing sectors fall into this category, however they are relatively small sectors. Sectors in this quadrant require assistance in managing redundancies, modernisation, and restructuring into higher value activities. These are ‘manufacture of pulp, paper products, printing etc.’, ‘metal manufacturing and fabrication’ and ‘the manufacturing of transport equipment’.
Sectors located in the bottom right quadrant are those, which are over-represented locally but have also been experiencing decline nationally. Although not shown on the chart because of their very high LQs skewing the presentation of the chart, there are three key manufacturing sectors that fall into this category. There are the ‘manufacturing of transport equipment (LQ = 2.5), ‘manufacturing of non-metallic mineral products’ (LQ = 4.7) and ‘metal manufacture and fabrication’ (LQ = 9.5) sectors. These three sectors account for 18% of Neath Port Talbot’s jobs and have been declining nationally, but retain a strong presence in Neath Port Talbot despite factory closures before and during the recession. Opportunities still remain in these sectors due to their strength locally, particularly in ‘metal manufacture and fabrication’ due to TaTa Steel’s recent and planned investments in the steel works.
Sectors located in the top right quadrant of the chart combine above-average representation with employment growth. This is particularly the case for the ‘public services, administration and defence’ and ‘health and social work’ sectors. It should be noted however that the impact of the public sector employment cuts, linked to the Government’s efforts to reduce the public sector funding deficit, will significantly impact on the future growth of these sectors. Worryingly for Neath Port Talbot, there are no other sectors with expected good prospects in this quadrant.
Sectors located in the top left quadrant are sectors that generate employment growth, but are still relatively under-represented in comparison to the national level; however nearly all of them account for a significant number of workplace jobs in Neath Port Talbot. These are ‘financial and business services’, ‘other business services’, ‘hotels and catering’ and ‘transport and storage’. The latter has particular opportunities for higher representation in Neath Port Talbot with significant sites being available close to the M4 in the county borough.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 36 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Figure 3.2: Strength of Sectors Swansea
Source: Business Register and Employment Survey
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 37 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Figure 3.3: Strength of Sectors Neath Port Talbot
Source: Business Register and Employment Survey
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 38 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Agriculture
3.3.8 Table 3.9 shows that Agriculture, forestry & fishing is most significantly under-represented of all sectors in both Neath Port Talbot and Swansea. However, it should be noted that the Business Register and Employment Survey fails to provide a full indication of the extent of farm workers in the study area. Alternative data (2001 Census) indicate that the Agriculture, forestry & fishing sector accounts for 1.0% and 0.8% of total employment in Neath Port Talbot and Swansea respectively, which is slightly higher than the proportions shown in Table 3.8. However, it is clear that this is not a dominant sector in either study area.
Knowledge Based Industries
3.3.9 The Knowledge Based Economy (KBE)7 employment sectors tend to have high and fast- growing productivity and assist the industries they serve by providing the means (through technical efficiencies) to increase their productivity rates. Therefore the KBE sectors are regarded as key drivers of productivity and economic growth. However, they do not necessarily increase employment (i.e. a rise in productivity and efficiencies may lead to fewer jobs).
3.3.10 As shown in Figure 3.4, KBE employment accounts for 6% and 16% of total Neath Port Talbot and Swansea employment respectively. The Neath Port Talbot share is half the average for Wales and less than half that for South Wales. This emphasises the low value services that make up Neath Port Talbot’s economy. In contrast the share in Swansea is higher than both the national and regional averages and suggests greater potential for an economy with higher level value added.
Figure 3.4 Knowledge Economy Employment as a share of total employment, 2010
Neath Port Talbot 6%
Swansea 16%
South Wales 14%
Wales 12%
Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, 2007 SIC definition
7 The definition used here for the Knowledge Based Economy has been based on the following source: https://shareweb.kent.gov.uk/Documents/facts-and-figures/Economy/redefining-the- knowledge-economy2011.pdf
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 39 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
B-Space Employment
3.3.11 For the purpose of this study, it is useful to consider the proportion of current jobs that occupy business space (defined in the land uses class system as B-class development) which comprises office, industrial and warehousing jobs. These are sometimes jointly referred to as B-space jobs. To identify these jobs, Peter Brett Associates (PBA) uses a range of economic sectors which is set out at Appendix 1.
3.3.12 As shown in Figure 3.5, generally B-space employment accounts for around 40% to 45% of all jobs, as reflected in the proportions for South Wales and Wales. Therefore this space for employment is dominant in Neath Port Talbot, which has nine percentage points more B- space jobs than is typically found across Wales. But the domination is less so in Swansea, with 36%, however future economic regeneration proposals for Swansea are prioritising the delivery of strategic employment sites which should provide a boost to B-Space sectors8. These include sites such as the Business Park at Felindre and the mixed use development at Swansea Vale.
3.3.13 Currently, the largest proportion of B-space jobs in Swansea is found in Office (B1) based employment followed by Industrial (B2) type employment with Warehousing (B8) taking up the smallest share. This distribution is common to most areas and is the pattern seen regionally and nationally. In contrast Neath Port Talbot has the largest share in Industrial (B2) based sectors, followed by Office (B1) type employment and lastly Warehousing (B8) employment.
Figure 3.5 B-Space Employment as a Share of all Employment, 2010 50%
45% 5% 40% 7% 5% 35% 4% 5% 30% 13% 27% 7% 14% 25% 15%
20%
15% 25% 24% 20% 10% 18% 15% 5%
0% Neath Port Swansea South Wales Wales Great Britain Talbot B1/Office Employment B2/Industrial B8/Warehousing
Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, 2010
8 See Swansea Economic Focus Issue 3 (Autumn 2011) at: http://www.swansea.gov.uk/index.cfm?articleid=40423
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 40 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
3.3.14 Disaggregation of this data shows that Port Talbot has a 38% share in Industrial (B2) based employment with all B-Space accounting for 55% of employment. The same pattern is seen in the NPT Valleys, although on a smaller scale (B-Space employment accounts for only 42% of employment) with Neath displaying the same distribution as Swansea and the wider region.
3.3.15 These data suggest a relatively strong current and future outlook regarding B-Space sectors in both study areas.
Employment Change
3.3.16 Figure 3.6 below shows how Neath Port Talbot and Swansea’s economies have performed in terms of recent employment growth9. This is commonly used as an indicator for economic performance. Starting in 1998, growth rates have been indexed for comparison with comparator areas.
3.3.17 The changes show stark differences between the economic performance of Neath Port Talbot and Swansea. Whilst employment growth in both areas has fluctuated somewhat over the past ten years (partly reflecting small sample data volatility) , Neath Port Talbot has in general stagnated while Swansea has seen growth. The overall net growth in Neath Port Talbot was only 1% between 1998 and 2008 compared to 21% in Swansea. In contrast, over the same period, South Wales and Wales both grew by 14% and GB grew by 8.5%.
3.3.18 Since the start of 2008 the boom experienced by much of the country has come to an end, with the national economy experiencing the biggest downturn in more than 60 years. Although not directly comparable with the data presented in Figure 3.6, and therefore unable to be used for analysing trends before 2008, the most recent employment data10 shows a decline in both study and comparator areas between 2008 and 2010, with the most dramatic decline (-5%) in Neath Port Talbot (see Table 3.10).
9 Owing to employment data after 2008 being non-compatible with earlier years, the period 1998 to 2008 is used to provide a long enough period to reliably compare change. 10 Business Register and Employment Survey 2010
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 41 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Figure 3.6 Employment Change (all workplace employees), 1998-2008
130 Neath Port Talbot
Swansea 125 South Wales 120 Wales
115 Great Britain
110
105 Index: 1998 = 1001998 = Index:
100
95
90 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Table 3.10 Change in Employment (total employees), 2008-2010 2009 % 2010 % 2008 2009 change on 2010 change on 2008 2008 Neath Port 43,900 42,800 -3% 41,700 -5% Talbot Swansea 105,200 100,700 -5% 102,600 -3% South Wales 845,400 819,168 -3% 814,100 -4% Wales 1,195,500 1,157,700 -3% 1,150,900 -4% Great Britain 26,989,600 26,212,600 -3% 26,082,100 -3% All figures have been rounded to the nearest 100. Source: Business Register and Employment Survey.
3.4 Resident Workforce
3.4.1 This next section profiles the populations of Neath Port Talbot and Swansea in terms of capacity to generate growth and prosperity by providing an overview of residents’ economic activity and skills.
Population and Labour Supply
3.4.2 Table 3.11 shows that there were approximately 137,400 and 232,500 residents in Neath Port Talbot and Swansea in 2010 respectively, which together account for about 17% of the population of South Wales. Some 63% and 65% of the respective populations were of working age (defined as 16 to 64 yrs), which together also accounts for 17% of the total regional working age population (WAP). When compared to the wider region and nation, the share of WAP of the total population is very consistent.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 42 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Table 3.11 Population Structure, 2010 Population Working Age Population (WAP) (16-64 yrs)
No. No. % of all pop Neath Port Talbot 137,400 86,600 63% Swansea 232,500 150,100 65% South Wales 2,119,700 1,353,700 64% Wales 3,006,400 1,900,300 63% GB 60,462,600 39,192,600 65% All figures have been rounded to the nearest 100. Source: Mid-year population Estimates.
Skill Levels
3.4.3 Skill levels in Neath Port Talbot, measured by qualifications of residents, are relatively low. Swansea by contrast is more in line with the regional and Welsh national averages. As shown in Figure 3.7, some 27% of working age residents hold at least a degree level qualification (i.e. NVQ4+) in Swansea, which is considerably greater than in Neath Port Talbot (21%). These results are to be expected given the nature of each location, Swansea being a university city and Neath Port Talbot being historically an industrial area. These results suggest that a larger proportion of residents in Swansea are suited to higher skilled jobs than in Neath Port Talbot.
3.4.4 Some 16% of the WAP in Neath Port Talbot have no qualifications, which is higher than regional and national averages (14 and 13% respectively). Swansea sits in between at 15%. With the type of employment found in the study areas (as described in the previous section), it is expected that many of these workers will be working locally, matching the lower value economy with lower skilled workers.
3.4.5 Despite these results, recent school banding implemented by the Welsh Government, which uses the relative performance of secondary schools to group them into five Bands, sets four of the 11 secondary schools in Neath Port Talbot (36%) in the highest band, Band 1 (overall good performance and progress) and a further four in Band 2 (18%).
3.4.6 Of the 15 secondary schools in Swansea, five are in Band 1 (30%) and one is in Band 2 (7%). In comparison only two out of the 20 Cardiff secondary schools are in Band 1 (10%).
3.4.7 The relative performance of schools is measured to take account of actual performance, progress over time and performance relative to context and cohort. This banding, published by the Welsh Government in December 2011, uses 2010 data and suggests a more positive outlook regarding education in the county boroughs, particularly in Neath Port Talbot.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 43 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Figure 3.7 Skill Levels of Working Age Residents, 2010 % with NVQ4+ - aged 16-64 % with no qualifications 35% 31% 28% 30% 27% 28%
25% 21% 20% 16% 15% 14% 15% 13% 11% 10%
5%
0% Neath Port Talbot Swansea South Wales Wales Great Britain
Source: Annual Population Survey
Economic Activity
3.4.8 As shown in Figure 3.8, economic activity levels of residents in both study areas are similar to each other and less than the regional, Welsh and GB average. The economic activity rates in Neath Port Talbot and Swansea are 4% and 6% lower than the Welsh average respectively.
3.4.9 Comparatively economic activity rates in both areas are lower among 16-64 year olds and the 65+ age group. This suggests a lower demand for employment than in other parts of Wales and GB. In Swansea this is likely, in part, to be a reflection of its large student population. While lower economic activity rates among the working age residents may indicate slackness in the labour market, this will facilitate local job growth should new opportunities arise. This is because residents who are marginally inactive at present would be more likely to take up employment when the conditions are improved.
Figure 3.8 Rates of Economic Activity among Residents by Age, year to June 2011 90%
80% 9% 8% 65+ 7% 70% 5% 6%
60% 50% 16-64
40% 72% 73% 76% 69% 67% 30% 20%
10%
0% Neath Port Swansea South Wales Wales Great Britain
Talbot
Source: Annual Population Survey
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 44 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
3.5 Sustainability
3.5.1 In this section we review the balance of economies and residents in Neath Port Talbot and Swansea.
Unemployment
3.5.2 According to the latest ‘official’ unemployment figures (2010), 10% of both Neath Port Talbot and Swansea’s economically active working age residents were unemployed11. This is a similar position to the regional averages, and marginally higher than the national average at 9%. Claimant counts of the WAP are considerably lower in both study areas at 4%, marginally lower than the regional and national averages of 4.5% and 4.8% respectively.
3.5.3 After a period of comparative stability before the national recession in 2007, unemployment in Swansea grew at a faster rate than in the comparator areas as shown in Figure 3.9. From 2007 Neath Port Talbot initially grew at a similar rate to South Wales and Wales as a whole but continued at a faster rate through 2008 to reach a higher peak.
Figure 3.9 Changes in Unemployment Rate over Time, 2004-2010
10%
8%
6%
4%
Neath Port Talbot Swansea 2% % unemployment in 16-64 GroupAge South Wales Wales Great Britain 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Annual Population Survey
Earnings
11 Taken from the Annual Population Survey (APS), which is different to the Claimant Count unemployment figure which is also sometimes quoted but tends to be lower. The APS is survey rather than count based, but it is likely to give a truer picture of real unemployment than the Claimant Count which only counts those in receipt of Jobseekers Allowances (JSA). The APS estimates the number of economically active working age population that have worked or have looked for work in the previous 4 weeks (irrespective if they are claiming JSA or not). This is why the APS figures are generally much higher.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 45 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
3.5.4 Residents in Neath Port Talbot who work either within or outside the County, earn an average of £434.60 per week. As shown in Figure 3.10, this is below the regional and national averages; while Swansea’s residents earn higher still, with an average of £474.40.
Figure 3.10 Full-Time Weekly Gross Median Pay, 2011 Resident Workplace £600
£508 £503 £503 £500 £474 £454 £460 £454 £435 £443 £447
£400
£300
£200
£100
£0 Neath Port Swansea South Wales Wales GB Talbot
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
3.5.5 Figure 3.10 shows a marked difference between the resident and workplace earnings in Neath Port Talbot; with residents on average earning £73 per week less than average earnings available for workers working in the County Borough. Swansea displays the opposite with average workplace earnings being £32 per week less than resident earnings. This infers that higher earning Swansea residents are more likely to be working outside of the City. The sector mix in Swansea which displays a high proportion of service based employment will also impact on the lower average workplace weekly wage.
Job Density
3.5.6 To assess the balance of local jobs and working age residents, a job density chart is shown in Figure 3.11 for all local authorities in Wales, with the figures for Neath Port Talbot and Swansea highlighted. An equal number of jobs and working age residents would result in an index of 1, and is likely to suggest a good balance of local jobs and local workers.12 Across Wales the (weighted) average is 0.71 which suggest a significant proportion of Welsh residents work elsewhere.
Figure 3.11 Job Density by Welsh local authorities, 2009
12 But it is important to note that this official measure only covers employee jobs; therefore including self-employed working residents would increase the density, and only then will an index of 1 represent a perfect balance of jobs to working age residents.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 46 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
Jobs / Working Age Residents Age Working Jobs/ 0.20
0.00
Source: ONS Change reference to Column Total’ in graph above– presume it means Wales Average?
3.5.7 As shown in Figure 3.11, with 0.55 of a job for every working age resident the borough, Neath Port Talbot ranks towards the lower end of job density ratios in the country. Conversely, with a job density of 0.75, Swansea is at the higher end of ratios and higher than the national average. Clearly this is behind the cities of Cardiff and Newport which are central to the South East Wales economic hub, Gwnyedd in North Wales which includes the main town of Bangor, and the very geographically spread Powys. But the surprise is that it has a lower job density than Pembrokeshire, most probably reflecting its modest population size and many jobs in oil and gas, and tourism.
Travel to Work
3.5.8 The latest travel to work data is obtained from the Statistical Bulletin: Statistics on Commuting in Wales, 2010 issued by the Welsh Government. In 2010 there was a net inflow of commuters to Swansea, by 10,400 and a net outflow from Neath Port Talbot, by 6,700. Based on the earlier findings in this chapter, the out-commuters from Neath Port Talbot are likely to be higher skilled workers able to access the better paid jobs found outside the borough i.e. people seeking higher paid work, primarily in Swansea yet choosing to live in Neath Port Talbot.
3.5.9 Further analysis of travel to work flows for Neath Port Talbot and Swansea are shown in Tables 3.12 and 3.13 respectively. The tables highlight the underlying patterns behind commuting trends, and the mismatch between resident and job numbers.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 47 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
3.5.10 Table 3.12 reveals that, in 2010, some 62% of Neath Port Talbot’s working residents were working in the borough. Some 24%, or 12,800, were commuting to work in Swansea and a further 4% in Bridgend.
3.5.11 Table 3.12 also shows that some 71% of Neath Port Talbot’s workplaces were being filled by residents from the borough (i.e. the borough workplace containment rate), which is reasonably high. Swansea residents (4,700 of them) accounted for the majority of in- commuters followed by lower levels from Bridgend and Camarthenshire.
3.5.12 Similar analysis for Swansea, shown in Table 3.13, reveals that the county has a higher proportion of residents working in Swansea (83%). As little as 5% of Swansea residents were commuting to Neath Port Talbot and a further 6% to Carmarthenshire.
3.5.13 Table 3.13 also shows that 75% of Swansea’s workplaces were filled by residents from the county. Therefore the containment rate was higher within Swansea than in Neath Port Talbot. Neath Port Talbot residents (12,800 of them) accounted for the majority (12%) of in- commuting workers again followed by lower levels from Carmarthenshire.
3.5.14 The balance of resident workers to the number of workplaces in 20010 gives a net out- commute of over 6,700 residents from Neath Port Talbot. The corresponding analysis for Swansea gives a net in-commute of 10,400 workers.
Table 3.12 Neath Port Talbot Travel to work patterns, 2010 Working Residents Workplace Jobs 54,300 47,600 Neath Port Talbot’s Area of workplace Area of residence
No. % No. % Neath Port Talbot 33,900 62.4% 33,900 71.2% Swansea 12,800 23.6% 4,700 9.9% Bridgend 2,100 3,9% 2,400 5.0% Carmarthenshire 1,000 1.8% 2,400 5.0% Source: Annual Population Survey, 2010 (Statistics on Commuting in Wales, 2010)
Table 3.13 Swansea Travel to Work patterns, 2010 Working Residents Workplace Jobs 92,600 103,000 Swansea’s Area of residence Area of workplace
No. % No. % Swansea 76,700 82.8% 76,700 74.5% Neath Port Talbot 4,700 5.1% 12,800 12.4% Carmarthenshire 5,400 5.8% 7,200 7.0% Source: Annual Population Survey, 2010 (Statistics on Commuting in Wales, 2010)
3.6 Conclusion
3.6.1 In some respect the economic profiles of Neath Port Talbot and Swansea are quite distinct. These distinctions are in large part attributable to the historical industrial development of each area and due to their proximity to each other, which is largely complementary. This is supported by travel to work patterns which show a significant amount of commuting between
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 48 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Swansea and Neath Port Talbot; however Swansea clearly dominates here in terms of the numbers of jobs to draw in economic active residents from Neath Port Talbot.
The Workplace Economies
3.6.2 Neath Port Talbot is dominated by the Port Talbot steelworks and industrial employment compared to neighbouring Swansea and the regional and national averages.
3.6.3 Based on wider macro-economic trends, with a continued decline expected in manufacturing, the dominance of industrial employment in Neath Port Talbot should normally put its economy at risk in the current economic climate. However, TaTa Steel’s takeover of the steel works is likely to buck the trend for manufacturing job losses since it is seeking to invest in the works, which should not only safeguard existing jobs, but also lead to supply chain benefits in the local economy.
3.6.4 Swansea is dominated by service sector employment. This includes a strong representation of public sector employment, which has grown in recent years. Again given the current economic climate with a continued decline expected in public sector budget, this may put Swansea at risk in the future of further job losses. A key issue therefore for Swansea over the coming years will be its reliance on public sector employment and how practitioners mitigate this through encouraging further economic diversity. It would suggest the need for investment in other higher value sectors, which are already well represented in the City, although still only account for 16% of all jobs.
3.6.5 Subsequently, the largest difference in economic profiles is in sector compositions; Neath Port Talbot being dominated by manufacturing and Swansea by public sector services. But both economies are characterised by a higher than average proportion of small to medium sized businesses. The provision of suitable space (typically 200 sqm m to 500 sqm m units) for this type of employment should therefore dominate in this part of Wales.
3.6.6 Conversely, there is a low representation of small businesses with 10 or less employees, possibly reflecting an over-reliance on the larger employing industries, which reflects greater stability, but may also be stymieing enterprising spirits, and therefore competition and innovation, among residents wanting to establish new business. It may also reflect the lack of infrastructure for smaller businesses including small business spaces for new enterprises to grow into.
The Resident Workforce
3.6.7 Particular concerns for both areas are the lower than average rates of economic activity among residents and the higher than average unemployment rates among residents. Consequently, the level of working residents to dependent residents may be unsustainable for a strong and sustainable economy, threatening future growth plans.
3.6.8 Compounding this is the high proportion of the working age resident population without qualifications is a constraint. A skilled workforce is recognised as key to raising the level of
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 49 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
productivity and achieving growth.13 These high dependency and low skill levels suggest that investment in education, skills training and retraining should be of first priority to encourage and support a strong growing economy. This problem is particularly notable in Neath Port Talbot, where only a small proportion of residents have high level qualifications.
Sustainability
3.6.9 Neath Port Talbot supplies almost an equal proportion of jobs relative to the proportion of its resident population in South Wales. However, with 55 jobs for every 100 working-age residents, the balance of jobs is low compared with neighbouring South Wales areas. This is reflected by high levels of out-commuting (38%) mostly to Swansea (24%).
3.6.10 Swansea, on the other hand, contributes 2% more to South Wales jobs than to the share of South Wales resident population because it is an economic hub for economically active residents beyond its own boundaries. This is expected, given that Swansea is significantly large with agglomeration benefits from links to supplier and labour markets. However, there are still just 75 jobs for every 100 working-age residents in Swansea, which is far below the proportions in the other South Wales cities of Cardiff and Newport.
13 See The Leith Review (2006), Prosperity for all in the global economy - World Class Skills which states that, “High skills are becoming increasingly important in the global economy. They drive growth, facilitate innovation and are crucial for world class management and leadership”.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 50 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
4 Commercial Property Profile
4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 This section provides an overview of current and, where possible, historical trends in the performance of the commercial property market in both Swansea and Neath Port Talbot (NPT). This overview is broken down across office and industrial and warehousing premises, with summaries about their stock and relative performance in each area.
4.1.2 The data and comment in this chapter has been sourced from a range of publications, including the Alder King Market Monitor, the Swansea Vacant or Available Commercial Land and Property Register, ONS Business Floorspace statistics and the Neath Port Talbot Council Employment Land Survey; and through discussions with local agents and developers.
4.2 Offices
4.2.1 The Welsh office market is mostly concentrated in South Wales, dominated by the City of Cardiff, with smaller centres of activity in Newport and Swansea. Some spreading of office activity has occurred in the ‘out of town’ locations along the M4 and A470 corridors.
Total Stock
Table 4.1 Office Unit Numbers and Total Floorspace Change, 2002 to 2012 2002 2007 2012 2002-2012 Net No. Sqm No. sqm No. sqm No. sqm change change change (sqm) NPT 400 62,000 460 75,000 490 86,000 90 24,000 39% Swansea 1,010 324,000 1,010 364,000 1,280 387,000 270 63,000 19% Wales 12,040 2,855,000 13,020 3,137,000 15,110 3,471,000 3070 616,000 22% Source: ONS (2012) Offices – Hereditaments and floorspace
Figure 4.1 Office Floorspace Growth, 2002-2012
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 51 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Source: ONS (2012) Offices – Hereditaments and floorspace
Swansea
4.2.2 The latest ONS commercial floorspace figures show that Swansea has a significant quantum of office floorspace (387,000 sqm). However, between 2002 and 2012 the total amount of office floorspace grew at a slower rate in Swansea (19%) compared to the rate recorded across Wales (22%) as a whole. Overall this trend means that the total office floorspace in Swansea, as a proportion of Wales’s office stock, remained relatively static between 2002 and 2012 at just over 11%.
4.2.3 The Swansea office market in particular has historically been dependent on the public sector, which occupies almost one half of the stock in the city.
Neath Port Talbot
4.2.4 In 2012 the ONS Commercial Floorspace data shows that there were 490 office units in Neath Port Talbot, with a combined total of 86,000 sqm. Between 2002 and 2012 the total stock in the area increased by 90 units and 24,000 sqm. This growth in floorspace represented a 39% change in space over the decade, more that the national average (22%) and that recorded in Swansea (19%).
4.2.5 Total office floorspace as a proportion of the Wales total only grew slightly from 2.1% to 2.4% over the 2002 to 2012 period.
Available Space
Figure 4.2 Office Total Available Supply
120,000 Swansea Cardiff Newport
100,000
80,000
60,000 sqm floorspace sqm 40,000
20,000
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Alder King (2012) Market Monitor
Swansea
4.2.6 The supply of available office space in Swansea has increased steadily since 2007, when the recession hit, from approximately 39,000 sqm to more than 52,500 sqm. The total
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 52 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
availability represents approximately half that of Cardiff. Some of the increase in supply can be attributed to public sector cutbacks. Crucible Park, at Swansea Vale, is reported to contribute to over 17% of the supply.
Neath Port Talbot
4.2.7 Directly comparable data is not available for Neath Port Talbot. However, the 2012 Neath Port Talbot Commercial Property and Land Register Database only listed a total of 2,875 sqm of office space as being available in January 2012 (representing a rise from just 938 sqm in February 2009).
Office Take-up
Figure 4.3 Office Space Realised Demand 70,000 Swansea Cardiff Newport 60,000
50,000
40,000
Demand(sq.m) 30,000
20,000
10,000
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Alder King (2012) Market Monitor
Swansea
4.2.8 There were improved levels of office floorspace take-up in Swansea in 2011 (15,143 sqm) compared to 2009 and 2010. This was however heavily influenced by two transactions, Admiral Insurance (3,530 sqm at Swansea Vale) and Swansea Metropolitan University (6,039 sqm at Ty Bryn Glas), which accounted for 64% of the total. Despite this, most transactions recorded were under 465 sqm in size, with current demand being heavily biased towards the professional services sector. Encouragingly take-up rates of both Technium Innovation Centres by spin-off companies linked to Swansea University disciplines have been very good. These companies will require grow-on premises in the future.
Neath Port Talbot
4.2.9 No publically held data is available on office floorspace take-up in Neath Port Talbot. Discussion with commercial agents indicates that there is little or no demand for office space in Neath Port Talbot. There is however likely to be a churn of smaller premises that the larger commercial agents may not deal with. It is hoped that the development of the new University Science and Innovation Campus at Fabian Way will have trigger spin-off activity
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 53 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
demand for office space in the area. This has started already with spin-off companies taking space at the new Baglan Bay Innovation Centre. Furthermore, funding has been secured for a £6.3 million ‘Research and Development Village’ office development on the Harbourside. Tata and TW1 have already agreed to take space in the buildings, which are being delivered by the Council in partnership with Deryn Properties.
Rental Levels
Figure 4.4 Offices Headline Rents, 2011
In town Out of town £250 £215 £200 £161 £148 £150 £140 £140 £116 £100 £100
Headline rents (£/sqm) £50
£0 Swansea Neath/Port Cardiff Newport Talbot
Source: Alder King (2012) Market Monitor /Neath Port Talbot rental level based on transactions listed on FOCUS
Swansea
4.2.10 In 2011, in line with the wider market, there continued to be downward pressure on rents14. Office rents achieved in Swansea average at approximately £148 per sqm in town centre locations and £116 per sqm at out of town locations. These average rental levels are lower than those achieved in both Cardiff and Newport.
Neath Port Talbot
4.2.11 There is no comparable data for Neath Port Talbot, however, analysis of transactions listed on the FOCUS Database shows that average office rental levels are in the region of £100 per sqm. These levels have risen as modern premises have been delivered at Baglan Park and other strategic sites.
4.3 Industrial & Warehousing
4.3.1 Industrial (production) and warehousing (storage and distribution) space have been merged into one category, called “industrial/warehousing”. This is because data on the supply of space - such as Valuation Office floorspace statistics and planning data on completions and commitments – rarely distinguish accurately between industrial production factories, and
14 Alder King (2012) Market Monitor
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 54 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
storage and distribution warehouses. This is not surprising since these uses can generally operate in the same buildings and, furthermore, subject to size limitations, space can be transferred between production and distribution without planning permission.
Floorspace
Table 4.2 Industrial Unit Numbers and Total Floorspace Change, 2002 to 2012 2002 2007 2012 2002-2012 Net No. Sqm No. sqm No. sqm No. sqm change change change (sqm) NPT 1,090 883,000 1,050 922,000 1,030 906,000 -60 23,000 3% Swansea 1,680 1,173,000 1,630 1,182,000 1,660 1,115,000 -20 -58,000 -5% Wales 26,220 18,684,000 26,600 18,784,000 28,000 18,248,000 1780 -436,000 -2% Source: ONS (2012) Industrial – Hereditaments and floorspace
Swansea
4.3.2 In 2012 there was a total stock of 1,115,000 sqm of industrial and warehousing floorspace in Swansea, spread across 1,660 units. The average size of unit was therefore approximately 672 sqm.
4.3.3 Over the period 2002 to 2012 there was total industrial floorspace reduction of 58,000 sqm in Swansea, representing a -5% change.
Neath Port Talbot
4.3.4 The 2002 to 2012 ONS data shows that Neath Port Talbot has almost as much industrial floorspace (906,000 sqm) as Swansea. Furthermore, in contrast to Swansea, this total increased over the decade (by 3%). The average size of unit (879 sqm) is significantly more than Swansea (671 sqm). Over the course of the decade the average size of unit increased from 810 sqm.
4.3.5 Unfortunately the latest ONS figures do not breakdown the difference between industrial and warehousing space. Analysis of older VOA data, collected until 2008, does however show that the quantum of warehousing space in Neath Port Talbot decreased over the 1998 to 2008 period to 165,000 sqm from 169,000 sqm. This decrease over the decade was only minor however suggesting a relatively limited demand for floorspace in the area from logistics companies, despite its location within the M4 corridor. Discussion with agents suggests that demand for such space decreases further away from Cardiff, which is the driver of the Welsh economy.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 55 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Availability
Figure 4.5 Industrial/warehousing Total Available Supply
Swansea NPT Cardiff Newport 300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000 Supply (sqm) 50,000
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Alder King (2012) Market Monitor / NPT analysis of Commercial Property and Land Register Database (industrial + warehousing)
Swansea
4.3.6 Swansea has a significantly higher quantity of available industrial floorspace than Cardiff and Newport. Alder King estimate that in 2011 this equated to approximately 256,000 sqm. More recent analysis of the Swansea Commercial Property Database shows that approximately 242,400 sqm of space was available across 55 units. It should be noted however that total floorspace was not available for 24 premises registered on this database.
4.3.7 Availability is high for older units. Larger companies continue to take-up Grade A premises whilst the rental levels are suppressed and good deals can be achieved. Larger examples of units on the market include a 64,833 sqm premises at Westfield Industrial Park which was available at the time of reporting for approximately £22.70 per sqm.
Neath Port Talbot
4.3.8 Neath Port Talbot Council collected data shows that in 2011 approximately 143,000 sqm of industrial stock was available. Like Swansea, much of the available space is large and was built in the late 1970s and 1980s and therefore either needs to be upgraded or redeveloped to make it commercially attractive again.
4.3.9 Neath Port Talbot analysis of their Commercial Property Database reveals the high levels of availability of industrial space compared to other commercial uses, particularly office space (see Figure 4.6). These figures are skewed by the availability of some very large units, including some remaining space at the former Visteon Ford factory at Fabian Way. There was approximately 775,000 sq ft available, but the former Zetec plant, 265,000 sq ft, is now being used as the film studios, whilst the remaining floorspace of the Visteon site, 510,000 sq ft, is currently being demolished and as such can no longer be considered available.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 56 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Figure 4.6 Available Floorspace in Neath Port Talbot
160000 Feb 2009 availability June 2010 availability 140000 March 2011 availability
120000 June 2012 availability
100000
80000
(sqm) Availability 60000
40000
20000
0 High Light & Offices Wholesale Workshops Technology, General & Freight R&D Industry Distribution
Source: NPT Planning Policy Survey and Estates ‘Commercial Property and Land Register Database’
4.3.10 By dividing the total floorspace by the total available floorspace in Neath Port Talbot it is possible to estimate the vacancy rates across each premises category. Table 4.3 shows that the vacancy rate of light and general industry premises in Neath Port Talbot is currently 16.9%. This has risen from 14.1% since 2011. High technology/R&D unit vacancy rates are also high at 13.8%, whilst warehouse space and office space vacancy rates are about 8%.
Table 4.3 Neath Port Talbot Vacancy Rates by Premises Type 2009 2010 2011 2012 Light & General Industry 16.7 14.8 14.1 16.9 High Technology, R&D 8.2 14.1 17.6 13.8 Wholesale & Freight Distribution 17.3 7.8 17.3 7.8 Offices 2.7 3.9 7.0 8.0 Source: NPT Planning Policy Survey and Estates ‘Commercial Property and Land Register Database’
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 57 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Take-up
Figure 4.7 Industrial/warehousing Realised Demand
100,000 Swansea Cardiff Newport 90,000 80,000 70,000
60,000 50,000 40,000
Demand (sqm) 30,000 20,000
10,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Alder King (2012) Market Monitor
Swansea
4.3.11 Demand for industrial space has remained at fairly consistent levels in Swansea between 2007 and 2011. In 2011 demand stood at almost 43,000 sqm in Swansea. Agents report that the main demand in Swansea is for units of either up to 500 sqm (for start-up businesses) and over 2,500 sqm (for relocations). There is little demand for medium sized units at the moment.
4.3.12 Agents consulted during the course of the study indicate that there is still demand for Grade A industrial space across both areas but there is now currently very little remaining stock, with very little having been built since 2009. More recently the freehold market has again begun to be active, thanks in part to the distressed lending opportunities.
Neath Port Talbot
4.3.13 NPTCBC’s Estates Department report high levels of demand for their smaller units, which are typically 500 sqft (45 sqm). This is particularly the case at estates like Crynant, Glynneath, Cwmgors and Endeavour Close where all these units are fully let. There is a significant waiting list for each of these estates for the smaller units and turnovers are often completed within a matter of weeks when one unit becomes available.
4.3.14 Units of over 1,000 sqft (92 sqm) are much more freely available within the county borough. However in 2011-2012 the demand for these units has significantly increased leading to full occupancy at Neath Abbey, Cwmtawe and Cwmgors.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 58 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Rental Levels
Figure 4.8 Industrial/warehousing headline rent £psqm 2011
£60 £54
£50 £45 £43 £40 £33
£30
£20 Headline rents (£/sqm) rents Headline £10
£0 Swansea Neath/Port Cardiff Newport Talbot
Source: Alder King (2012) Market Monitor / Neath Port Talbot rental level based on transactions listed on FOCUS
Swansea
4.3.15 2011 Headline rents for industrial space stood at £45 per sqm for industrial premises in Swansea. These rental levels are less than those achieved in Cardiff.
4.3.16 Agents report that properties in prominent roadside locations continue to attract trade counter occupiers, and that demand remains strongest for modern space with good access to the M4 motorway. However, they also report that relocation costs for many occupiers remain an obstacle, despite the offer of attractive packages.
Neath Port Talbot
4.3.17 Analysis of rental levels achieved over the last 3 years in Neath Port Talbot for the few units that have transacted reveals that average rental levels are approximately £33 per sqm. It is likely however, that Grade A properties close to the M4 would achieve higher rental levels.
Land Take-up
4.3.18 Even before the economic downturn, the cost of the land and construction, plus associated fees on commercial property developments in South Wales, was often in excess of the resultant market value of the building. The fragile occupier market, the lack of credit, the taxation of empty properties and the sharp increase in availability have brought private sector speculative development to a halt. Prime yields being achieved in Swansea are approximately 7.5% for both industrial and office space15. The level of yield is significantly higher in Neath Port Talbot.
15 Alder King (2012) Market Monitor 2012
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 59 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
4.3.19 Discussion with local agents indicates that rental levels of more than £50 per sqm can be achieved on Grade A industrial premises. However, in order to justify speculative build, developers need to secure approximately £70 per sqm rent or more. Public sector support is therefore needed to plug the £15 to £20 per sqm gap in viability. This is particularly required in Neath Port Talbot where little speculative development occurred pre-recession. One of the only recent private sector speculative developments in Neath Port Talbot, a B1/B8 development delivered by Mardon Properties at Baglan Energy Park, took more than 5 years to let.
4.3.20 Therefore, although the demand for new build units remains, the delivery of these is only likely to occur with government assistance. The delivery of sites like Baglan Bay Energy Park, SA1 and Swansea Vale by Joint Venture public private sector partnerships has at least helped to prepare sites for design and build options. The attraction of companies like Hi-Lex Cable Systems Ltd, Intertissue and Montagne Jeunesse to Baglan Energy Park is evidence of this.
4.4 Conclusion
4.4.1 The Swansea and Neath Port Talbot commercial property market profiles differ considerably.
4.4.2 Swansea has become a focal point for offices, as is typical for city areas where business services are more likely to cluster. In Neath Port Talbot, however, there is very little demand (and hence availability) for such units, and this is unlikely to change as cities become better connected through transport links to their surrounding locations.
4.4.3 In contrast, the total industrial floorspace stock in Neath Port Talbot grew between 2002 and 2012, whilst the total stock reduced in Swansea in line with national trends. In terms of warehousing space, although there is a relatively high proportion in Swansea compared to the national average, it is clear that the main demand for space is closer to major markets nearer Cardiff.
4.4.4 The pattern of premises types across the areas is not only reflective of demand but has also been influenced by the historical development of the local economies. In the case of Neath Port Talbot the economy has been heavily influenced by steel production and other industrial activities. Shifting the skills set of the workforce to skills better suited to office employment will take several generations to change. The proposed development of a new Swansea University campus at Fabian Way could help to stimulate spin off activity in the local area, which will help in attracting new skills to Neath Port Talbot.
4.4.5 The economic downturn has severely impacted on the large quantum of both office and industrial space in particular that has entered the market. Much of the industrial space in both areas is considered to be unfit for modern purposes and will require investment or redevelopment to attract inward investors.
4.4.6 The high vacancy levels and continuing low levels of speculative development across both areas indicate that relatively limited new employment land will be required in the short to medium term. That said, not all of the available premises are suitable for modern purposes and there will still be requirements for grade A premises and land for design and build
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 60 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
options on good quality sites close to the M4. It is therefore important that sufficient land is allocated close to strategic routes and sites, in and close to Swansea City Centre, are identified to meet office development requirements. It is important that the public sector steps in to deliver a ladder of premises on these sites as a combination of factors, including bank lending and continuing market volatility, continue to hinder private sector speculative development.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 61 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
5 Employment Growth and Space Requirements
5.1 Introduction
5.1.1 This chapter considers future employment changes in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot using employment forecasts. In reviewing the forecasts, we also identify the type and amount of employment floorspace and land required to meet this demand and accommodate the projected growth. The next chapter considers the implications of these growth forecasts on housing requirements.
5.1.2 The analysis in this chapter focuses on quantifying employment change over a 15 year planning horizon, from 2010 to 2025 in Swansea, in line with the end year of Swansea’s emerging Local Development Plan (LDP). For Neath Port Talbot, it is a 15 year period, from 2011 to 2026, in line with the end year of their emerging LDP.
5.1.3 We treat 2010 as our base year because this will include the latest actual employee data using official figures, and therefore provides a robust starting point for employment data. Anything beyond 2010 is a forecast and would therefore be less certain.
5.1.4 It is important to note that all calculations refer to net change in the forecast period beyond 2010. The net change in employment is used as the basis for assessing the requirement for additional employment space. Net change in employment (the stock of jobs) is the difference between jobs lost and jobs gained. The corresponding net change in employment land is the difference between sites brought forward, mostly from new development, and sites lost (for example, where industrial sites are cleared and redeveloped for housing and other uses).
5.1.5 This approach assumes that any existing employment land can be re-used for employment uses, so net change is the key issue, and we rely on employment forecasts to identify this. It is therefore important to identify suitable, realistic forecasts at the local level. For this reason Experian Economics prepared top down baseline forecasts for the two local authority areas, which we then adjusted against known local factors in order to ensure bottom up compatibility.
5.2 Employment Forecasts
Experian
5.2.1 To inform our understanding of future space needs, we have commissioned Experian Economics (EE) employment forecasts for both Swansea and Neath Port Talbot, based on their latest (spring 2012) model results. This model is largely top down reflecting macro changes consistent with EE’s March 2012 macroeconomic forecast at the UK and regional level by sector, and then allocating this growth at the local/unitary authority level (i.e. counties, boroughs and districts).
5.2.2 In broad terms, the historical performance of county economies is interpreted in terms of their share of the Wales economy of which they are a part. The forecasts include 38 economic sectors, and equations are produced for output and employment in each sector of
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 62 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
the economy that explain the observable relationship between these variables at the local and regional level. Experian make use of employment data, drawn from the Annual Business Inquiry and BRES along with surveys such as the Annual Population Survey.
5.2.3 No forecasts are ever certain, and while the technical approach used here is robust (including inputs relating to the Government population projections), they can fail to pick up significant local demand factors relating to specific sector investments, which need to be checked. Consequently, based on information that is known about the two local economies, we have identified some mis-alignment in sector growth in Experian Economics’ employment forecasts with what is happening at the local level. These are:
In Swansea, the forecasts include a substantial number of jobs in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing’ sector, and over the plan period these jobs are forecast to fall by some 2,200. From what is known about this sector from recent data and local information, this is not a big sector in Swansea with possibly significantly less than 1,000 workplaces in total at present. Therefore to avoid an inaccurate estimation of total employment loss, we have discounted any employment change in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing’ sector between 2010 and 2025.
In Neath Port Talbot, over the plan period the forecasts show a substantial drop in two sectors: ‘Metal Products’, with employment losses of 2,110, and ‘Specialised Construction Activities’ with losses of 1,860 jobs. However, ‘Metal products’ includes employment at one of Neath Port Talbot’s largest investors, TaTa Steel, which has recently increased its investment substantially and continues to do so at present, so we would not expect the top level macro trends to apply in this instance in Neath Port Talbot. For ‘Specialised Construction Activities’ (such as civil engineering infrastructure), we do not feel that the 72% drop in employment reflects the continued investment in infrastructure such as the PDR and regeneration of Port Talbot, and particularly not when the same sector in Swansea is projected to grow by 8%. Therefore, we have discounted any changes in either of these sectors between 2010 and the end period.
Cambridge Econometrics
5.2.4 The Regional Learning Partnership (RLP) have also recently commissioned employment forecasts from an alternative source - Cambridge Econometrics (CE), which cover the four counties in South West Wales, including Swansea and Neath Port Talbot. We have therefore taken an opportunity to compare the two forecasts. Firstly, it should be noted that CE use a similar top down method to EE, i.e. these forecasts are demand driven forecasts which do not reflect local supply considerations other than the labour market.
5.2.5 We have only considered the change in employment and not specifically the forecast numbers or sector breakdown. This is because CE’s forecasts are rounded to the nearest 100 (EE’s are rounded to the nearest 10 if over 10), which obstructs any detailed analysis and potentially can grossly over or under estimate the change where there are small differences at the sector level. Also CE use a different sector definition breakdown, based on 41 sectors as opposed to EE’s 38 sectors. The population informing the forecasts are taken from the ONS 2008 based projections, similar to the EE approach.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 63 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Comparison of Employment Forecasts
5.2.6 In Table 5.1, we compare the annual rate of past and projected employment growth between CE’s forecasts, EE’s forecasts and EE’s forecasts including our sector adjustments, which we refer to as EE (adj). These figures show the differences are much greater in the forward years, from 2010, than in the past years, as would normally be expected. Currently, the UK and many local economies are experiencing their longest and deepest recession of the post- war era, and may have resulted in some overall loss of economic capacity, resulting in current forecasts being below those of the past. But CE’s forecasts for both Swansea and Neath Port Talbot are much more positive about growth than the EE forecasts.
Table 5.1 Employment Growth, Past and Future Total change (No.) Annual rate of change Forecasts 1997-2010 2010-2025 1997-2010 2010-2025 CE 20,300 10,000 1.17% 0.50% Swansea EE 20,050 3,927 1.36% 0.21% EE (adj) 20,050 6,127 1.36% 0.32% Forecasts 1997-2010 2010-2026 1997-2010 2010-2026 Neath CE 100 2,300 0.02% 0.28% Port EE 2,100 -2,181 0.33% -0.28% Talbot EE (adj) 2,100 1,789 0.33% 0.22% CE = Cambridge Econometrics Forecasts EE = Experian Economics Forecasts EE (adj) = Above with adjustment for likely errors
5.2.7 While forecasts over a 15 to 20 year period are normally projected on a trend growth rate, it can be expected that there will be one or two business cycles over the plan period and at any point in the projections the economy might be above or below the trend growth rate. Hence the fact that there has been a recession should not, in itself, be sufficient to negate the projections.
5.2.8 In terms of differences between the two forecasts, we observe:
Swansea’s CE forecasts are significantly higher than EE’s (and the EE (adj)). However, CE’s projected annual growth is still less than half the rate of the past.
Swansea’s EE forecast annual rate of employment growth is more than six times below past rates, compared to CE’s two and a half times. The EE (adj) figures narrows this gap.
Neath Port Talbot’s CE forecasts show a higher annual rate of employment change compared with the past, which looks very low in comparison with EEs.
Neath Port Talbot’s EE forecasts show a negative growth in the future compared to previous positive growth. However, following an adjustment for possible inaccuracies described above, the forecasts turn into positive growth, but these are still below past rates and just below CE’s rate.
5.2.9 While both CE’s and EE’s forecasts follow a similar robust economic approach for estimating future employment growth, we have some concerns about the reliability of CC’s forecasts as a base forecast. This is because the employment data is presented at fine-grained 41 sector
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 64 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
employment growth levels, but rounded off to the nearest one hundred. Consequently, we anticipate that this level of broad rounding of net change figures, which in most sectors are less than 100, may be over inflating the total net change in employment.
5.2.10 Similarly, because of the concerns about EE’s forecasts over estimating the loss of jobs in Swansea’s ‘Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing’ sector and Neath Port Talbot’s ‘Metal Products’ and ‘Specialised Construction Activities’, we prefer to rely on our EE adjusted forecasts as a base for planning future employment land supply.
5.2.11 The EE (adj) forecasts are still relatively pessimistic in comparison to CE’s forecast, so we consider this later through running a more positive employment growth scenario focusing on specific sectors. For now we report on the results of the base EE (adj) growth forecasts for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot.
Employment Projection Results
5.2.12 Table 5.1 and 5.2 provides a summary of the EE adjusted forecasts by sector after allowing for the changes noted above. NB: though the following figures for each sector are shown in detail, they should be treated with a degree of caution as they are very sensitive to local factors and subject to a range of uncertainty. They should be considered as an indication of the likely scale of long term growth rather than specific and certain numbers.
Swansea
5.2.13 Table 5.2 shows that between 2010 and 2025, employment numbers in Swansea are projected to grow by just over 6,000 jobs, which is a 5% increase on current (2010) levels.
5.2.14 This growth is primarily driven by ‘Professional Services’, ‘Administrative & Supportive Services’, ‘Education’ and Health’, and tourism in the form of ‘Accommodation & Food Services’.
5.2.15 Manufacturing sectors, on the other hand, are forecast to decline over the same period based on the trend projection that is used. However, it is in ‘Public Administration & Defence’ sector where the biggest change and biggest loss is experienced. This sector alone accounts for nearly 3,000 job losses, which is equivalent to almost half the number of jobs gained.
Table 5.2 Experian Economics Employment Forecasts for Swansea (with adjustments) Total Change 2010-25 2010 2025 No. % Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 5,330 5,330 0 0.0% Extraction & Mining 5 4 -1 -12.8% Food, Drink & Tobacco 470 90 -380 -80.9% Textiles & Clothing 20 8 -12 -60.0% Wood & Paper 230 120 -110 -47.8% Printing and Recorded Media 170 140 -30 -17.6% Fuel Refining 0 0 0 - Chemicals 290 180 -110 -37.9% Pharmaceuticals 80 40 -40 -50.0% Non-Metallic Products 1,110 1,180 70 6.3% Metal Products 940 140 -800 -85.1%
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 65 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Total Change 2010-25 2010 2025 No. % Computer & Electronic Products 810 460 -350 -43.2% Machinery & Equipment 400 200 -200 -50.0% Transport Equipment 60 40 -20 -33.3% Other Manufacturing 450 200 -250 -55.6% Utilities 910 1,150 240 26.4% Construction of Buildings 1,910 2,060 150 7.9% Civil Engineering 1,690 2,120 430 25.4% Specialised Construction Activities 3,170 3,410 240 7.6% Wholesale 5,470 4,990 -480 -8.8% Retail 13,640 13,330 -310 -2.3% Land Transport, Storage & Post 3,450 3,820 370 10.7% Air & Water Transport 20 20 0 0.0% Accommodation & Food Services 8,320 9,340 1,020 12.3% Recreation 3,230 2,920 -310 -9.6% Media Activities 870 950 80 9.2% Telecoms 910 850 -60 -6.6% Computing & Information Services 1,450 1,770 320 22.1% Finance 2,870 3,680 810 28.2% Insurance & Pensions 1,090 1,370 280 25.7% Real Estate 1,130 1,210 80 7.1% Professional Services 5,370 6,870 1,500 27.9% Administrative & Supportive Services 10,780 12,940 2,160 20.0% Other Private Services 2,660 2,620 -40 -1.5% Public Administration & Defence 11,850 8,900 -2,950 -24.9% Education 12,880 13,890 1,010 7.8% Health 12,670 14,700 2,030 16.0% Residential Care & Social Work 6,550 8,340 1,790 27.3% Total 123,255 129,382 6,127 5.0% Source: Experian Economics May 2012; plus manual adjustments for zero change in ‘Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing’.
Neath Port Talbot
5.2.16 Table 5.3 shows that between 2010 and 2026, employment numbers in Neath Port Talbot are projected to grow by nearly 1,800 jobs, which is a 3.6% increase on current (2010) levels.
5.2.17 This growth is primarily driven by sectors similar to Swansea, with substantial gains in ‘Professional Services’, ‘Administrative & Supportive Services’, ‘Education’ and ‘Health’. However, the biggest growth is in ‘Residential Care & Social Work’, reflecting demographic changes such as an aging population.
5.2.18 Generally, manufacturing sectors are still seen to be declining, in line with past trends, although at a lower rate, while ‘Public Administration & Defence’ is also projected to fall by a quarter, which is similar to Swansea’s projections. There is thus a shift from sectors most likely to require significant operational space to sectors with smaller workplaces like offices.
Table 5.3 Experian Economics Employment Forecasts for Neath Port Talbot (with adjustments) Total Change 2010-26 2010 2026 No. % Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 1,900 2,090 190 10.0% Extraction & Mining 640 590 -50 -7.8% Food, Drink & Tobacco 70 40 -30 -42.9% Textiles & Clothing 10 9 -1 -8.0%
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 66 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Total Change 2010-26 2010 2026 No. % Wood & Paper 530 270 -260 -49.1% Printing and Recorded Media 60 50 -10 -16.7% Fuel Refining 0 0 0 - Chemicals 130 20 -110 -84.6% Pharmaceuticals 0 0 0 - Non-Metallic Products 370 430 60 16.2% Metal Products 6,210 6,210 0 0.0% Computer & Electronic Products 300 160 -140 -46.7% Machinery & Equipment 290 160 -130 -44.8% Transport Equipment 840 1,300 460 54.8% Other Manufacturing 470 310 -160 -34.0% Utilities 690 1,030 340 49.3% Construction of Buildings 550 370 -180 -32.7% Civil Engineering 590 150 -440 -74.6% Specialised Construction Activities 2,570 2,570 0 0.0% Wholesale 2,020 2,080 60 3.0% Retail 5,080 4,860 -220 -4.3% Land Transport, Storage & Post 1,950 2,020 70 3.6% Air & Water Transport 7 7 0 3.0% Accommodation & Food Services 2,590 2,800 210 8.1% Recreation 1,410 1,530 120 8.5% Media Activities 250 270 20 8.0% Telecoms 20 20 0 0.0% Computing & Information Services 220 270 50 22.7% Finance 340 360 20 5.9% Insurance & Pensions 10 10 0 0.0% Real Estate 520 650 130 25.0% Professional Services 1,970 2,580 610 31.0% Administrative & Supportive Services 2,290 2,770 480 21.0% Other Private Services 1,180 1,360 180 15.3% Public Administration & Defence 3,160 2,350 -810 -25.6% Education 4,070 4,250 180 4.4% Health 3,200 3,570 370 11.6% Residential Care & Social Work 3,630 4,410 780 21.5% Total 50,137 51,926 1,789 3.6% Source: Experian Economics May 2012; plus adjustments for zero change in ‘Metal Products’ and ‘Specialised Construction Activities’.
5.3 Employment Growth Scenarios
5.3.1 The base forecasts presented above represent the results of model-based analysis but have not been fully refined to reflect local supply side factors and drivers, or the aspiration to support economic growth at the local and from the national level. Therefore, we consider how qualitative information, strategy and policy influences or other 'soft' information might adjust the projections in both Swansea and Neath Port Talbot. In considering these factors, we draw on the strategy and/or policy context in Chapter 2, the baseline conditions in Chapter 3 and 4, the key site opportunities identified through the sites assessments covered later in Chapter 7 and in Appendices 2 and 3. We summarise the potential outcomes of these influences on Swansea and Neath Port Talbot below.
Swansea
5.3.2 The following initiatives and economic sectors are considered to have potential for driving the growth rate of employment in Swansea:
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 67 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
European Structural Funds - the availability of development funding to unlock economic growth will be very important in the currently cash strapped national and local economies, and with the 2014-2020 EU Programmes in Wales, future European programmes will have potential to deliver this through Structural Funds allocations for West Wales and the Valleys.
Swansea 2020 – this focuses on a number of important sectors which are recognised to have potential for significant growth in the UK over the future years, and Swansea seeks to encourage their growth here too. The Focus Clusters include:
- IT – along with the major components of the digital sector, information and communication technologies (ICT) is already making a significant contribution to UK economic output and employment, which is expected to continue in the future. Growth in these sectors will principally be in office and data centres.
- Creative industries – can make, and already does make, a significant contribution to UK economic output. Employment is predicted to grow in this sector over the next decade, and Swansea may benefit from this growth sector on the basis of current plans coming forward, which include a new public square and new/refurbished buildings and arcades as a focus for creative businesses in the Oxford Street West / West Way in Swansea City Centre. Also Swansea Metropolitan University has a strong reputation for specialist arts and creative courses. Growth in these sectors will principally be in office and workspace including light industry (B1c) uses.
- Life sciences – the UK is already a world leader in pharmaceuticals, medical biotechnology and medical technology, and through Swansea University’s own investments plans, there is significant potential for further growth in these area in Swansea. The Institute of Life Science (ILS) is the research arm of Swansea University's College of Medicine, is engaged in medical research, technology transfer through a number of existing specialist companies, and supporting new business incubation, including extending the number and total space for incubation units. These new businesses have potential to grow and move on within Swansea, and therefore increase demand for move on employment space, principally in office and workshop/lab type spaces (including B1c). Some manufacturing space may also be required.
- Professional Services – despite including sectors like finance, ICT services and real estate that have been particularly badly hit by the economic downturn, the UK is still a leading global hub for this industry and is in an unrivalled position to capture a large share of the new jobs this growth will create in years to come. With its status as the second largest City in Wales, with a relatively well educated workforce, Swansea should be able to draw in these sectors through its current plans for regenerating the City Centre sites and waterfront for office space provision.
- Tourism (including retail, hospitality and leisure) sectors – rising disposable incomes, both in the UK and overseas, and a diverse and unique tourism in Swansea with the City Centre and waterfront regeneration activity, and the natural
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 68 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
coast with Swansea Bay on the City’s doorstep will combine to help tourism in Swansea to grow. Also tourism employment is partly dependent on the retail sector, which should benefit through the City Centre’s development and regeneration, including Hammerson’s development which is reported to have potential for an additional 3,000 jobs. We cannot substantiate how many of these will be new jobs, but more constrained consumer spending would suggest that job growth in the retail sector is expected to be slower than the last decade, at least in the medium to short term.
- Marine sectors - The potential of Atlantic Array, a proposed offshore wind farm development by RWE npower, planned for the Bristol Channel off the coast of South Wales will be one of the world's largest offshore wind farms. Its close proximity to the South Wales coast, including the ports of Swansea and Port Talbot should bring opportunities with it, particular if one of these ports becomes the construction, maintenance and/or operations port serving the Array (both have the capacity). Similarly, the Severn Barrage, the proposed tidal power station that may be built across the Bristol Channel in the Severn Estuary, has similar potential around Swansea and Port Talbot docks for opening up investment and land developments for off-shore energy activities, and port activity as a replacement to Bristol Port. Neither plan has been developed or agreed, but nevertheless there is longer term potential that should be considered.
- Advanced Engineering - Swansea University and Swansea Metropolitan University have expertise in this area and advanced engineering is one of the sectors that will be supported by the Innovation Zone concept.
City Region status – Emerging strategic planning policy is likely to set out a new city region approach to development. This approach could deliver 3 main economic benefits. City Regions, which would include Swansea, provide larger and more efficient labour markets, with a good match between employer needs and workers’ skills are increased. They have larger potential markets for goods and services because of the concentration of activity and transport cost savings. City regions also experience a greater exchange of knowledge, data and innovation.
5.3.3 To reflect the economic potential based on the above, we have made some further adjustments to the EE sector base figures, which we refer to as ‘economic growth’ projections, shortened to ‘EE (adj+)’. It is not always possible to accurately project these changes, so a 20 percentage point increase on EE’s base projections is assumed as a sensible maximum in line with standard sensitivity tests. However, this growth adjustment does not apply across all sectors, but is specifically focussed on the following defined employment sectors because they align most closely with the above:
Chemicals;
Pharmaceuticals;
Computer & Electronic Products, Machinery & Equipment, and Transport Equipment – to reflect the advanced manufacturing offered through links with the universities (the
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 69 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
sector forecasts are insufficiently detailed to identify advanced (hi-tech manufacturing sectors as defined in Chapter 3, so these sectors are used to reflect where advanced manufacturing techniques are more likely);
Retail;
Accommodation & Food Services - achieves the largest increase in jobs;
Recreation;
Land Transport, Storage & Post;
Air & Water Transport;
Media Activities;
Telecoms;
Computing & Information Services;
Finance;
Insurance; and
Professional services – covers other professional business services outside the above sectors, and accounts for the second largest increase in jobs.
5.3.4 These adjustments raise the average annual growth projections for Swansea to 0.75%, which is greater than CE’s relatively optimistic projections (0.50%), but still less than past annual growth rates (1.36%) experienced between 1997 and 2010. This growth would increase the number of jobs in Swansea to 137,950 by 2025, representing an increase of 14,700 from 2010.
Neath Port Talbot
5.3.5 The following initiatives and economic sectors are considered to have potential for driving the growth rate of employment in Neath Port Talbot:
European Structural Funds - the availability of development funding to unlock economic growth will be very important in the currently cash strapped national and local economies, and with the 2014-2020 EU Programmes in Wales, future European programmes will have potential to deliver this in Neath Port Talbot, where Structural Funding will be available.
New Peripheral Distributor Road (PDR) - with the completion of the PDR scheduled for 2013, which will provide a dual carriageway between J38 of the M4 and Baglan, passing by a number of key employment sites including Port Talbot Docks, Baglan Bay and Baglan Energy Park, these areas will become key gateways to Port Talbot, with potential
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 70 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
for unlocking existing major development opportunities that could attract inward investment.
Significant regeneration schemes are planned and/or underway at Coed Darcy, Port Talbot Docks and Baglan Bay, which will help instil local confidence and potentially open up high quality space for inward investment. These regeneration projects are likely to benefit from the improved infrastructure with the completion of the PDR and EU funding post 2014.
Advanced engineering – this is where the Neath Port Talbot manufacturing base can thrive in the coming decades, and it is where most of the highly skilled manufacturing jobs will be created. Neath Port Talbot has a skilled, largely blue collar, workforce. However, with the development of Glamorgan’s University campus and the Swansea University second campus, which will raise the potential for linking R&D with engineering and manufacturing on the outside, then there is real scope for stemming and even reversing past employment closures within the manufacturing sector in Neath Port Talbot.
Energy economy – the global shift to low carbon will help to stimulate the market for low carbon and environmental goods and services. In addition to the potential from Atlantic Array and the Bristol Barrage offer, the Energy Park in Port Talbot will help to secure investment and potential for growth in this sector. To realise these opportunities, it is important to develop the skills base to attract investment and drive innovation in renewable technology design, manufacture and operations, in addition to providing suitable employment sites principally around the ports for offshore energy and ports use.
TaTa Steel – since its takeover of Corus Steel in 2008, the international company has made huge investments in its Port Talbot plant. Recent investments include £200 mn on rebuilding a blast furnace and further refurbishment are being considered for another blast furnace. Any development in the Port Talbot steel works is likely to be within TaTa Steels’ own operational site, and there is recognition by TaTa Steel of some land constraints within this area are reducing the potential expansion space.
TaTa Steel are also considering the investment in opening and operating a coking coal mine near its Port Talbot steel plant. This super mine has an initial estimated investment value of £260m, with a capex total of £400m for the life of the mine, which is expected to last more than 24 years and will require 500 employees to support the operation.
5.3.6 To reflect the economic potential based on the above, we have made some further adjustments in the EE base figures, which we refer to as ‘economic growth’ projections, shortened to ‘EE (adj+)’. It is not always possible to accurately project these changes, so a 20 percentage point increase on EE’s base projections is assumed as a sensible maximum in line with standard sensitivity tests. However, this growth adjustment does not apply across all sectors, but is specifically focussed on the following defined employment sectors because they align most closely with the above:
Extraction & Mining;
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 71 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Computer & Electronic Products, Machinery & Equipment, and Transport Equipment – to reflect the advanced manufacturing offered through links with the universities (the sector forecasts are insufficiently detailed to identify advanced (hi-tech manufacturing sectors as defined in Chapter 3, so these sectors are used to reflect where advanced manufacturing techniques are more likely);
Utilities;
Construction of Buildings;
Civil Engineering;
Specialised Construction Activities;
Land Transport, Storage & Post; and
Air & Water Transport.
5.3.7 ‘Metal Products’ are omitted from the list because this sector was forecast to decline by 34% in the original EE forecasts, and has already been adjusted to reflect no change in the base EE (adj) forecasts. Therefore no further adjustment is applied.
5.3.8 These adjustments raises the average annual growth projections for Neath Port Talbot to 0.40%, which is greater than in CE’s more optimistic projection (0.28%), and slightly more than the past annual growth rate (0.33%) experienced between 1997 and 2010. This growth would increase the number of jobs in Neath Port Talbot to 53,980 by 2026, which is 3,850 more jobs than in 2010.
5.4 Employment Space Requirements
Converting Employment into Land Use Sectors
5.4.1 Using the EE (adj) base forecasts and EE (adj+) economic growth forecasts, this section considers the type of land use requirements to support these employment projections. We define jobs into two land use sector types:
“B-space” sectors - which are jobs normally occupying offices, industrial and warehousing space that will require what is typically referred to as ‘employment land’, as defined as B-class uses in the Use Classes Order, and sometimes known as ‘business space’ or ‘B-space’. Waste facilities are also considered within the B2 use class.
“Non B-space” sector - jobs such as in waste handling, retail, education and health, which are not normally dependent on designated employment land, but require their own specialist sites and premises and are controlled separately in the planning process. Within Swansea and Neath Port Talbot, these are likely to account for more than half of all jobs, mostly in service- led sectors, and their expansion and location is likely to be dependent on housing and population growth and/or known requirements like hospital space expansions.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 72 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
5.4.2 We translate jobs by sector into jobs by type of space, using the sector-to-space mapping described in Appendix 1. This comparison of industrial sectors and types of space is not perfect; hence our definitions of workplace jobs and space are approximations, but they are based on detailed analysis and a standard “best practice” approach. This provides the best possible estimations for B-space employment through a process which has developed these through a series of employment space studies.
Swansea Employment Sector Requirements
Table 5.4 Swansea B-space and Non B-space Employment, 2010-2025 Total Change 2010-25 EE (adj) 2010 2025 No. % Industrial jobs 5,030 2,798 -2,232 -44.4% Warehousing jobs 12,325 12,625 300 2.4% Office jobs 38,980 41,160 2,180 5.6% B-space jobs 56,335 56,583 248 0.4% Non B-space jobs 66,920 72,799 5,879 8.8% All jobs 123,255 129,382 6,127 5.0% Total Change 2010-25 EE (adj+) 2010 2025 No. % Industrial jobs 5,030 3,126 -1,904 -37.9% Warehousing jobs 12,325 13,319 994 8.1% Office jobs 38,980 43,672 4,692 12.0% B-space jobs 56,335 60,117 3,782 6.7% Non B-space jobs 66,920 77,837 10,917 16.3% All jobs 123,255 137,954 14,699 11.9% Source: Experian Economics; PBA
B-Space Employment
5.4.3 As shown in Table 5.4, under the EE (adj) base forecasts, the projections identify very few additional jobs overall within the B-space sectors because an additional growth of nearly 2,200 jobs in office based activities is countered by similar losses in the manufacturing sector; while warehousing jobs show little change.
5.4.4 The situation improves under the EE (adj+) economic growth projections, largely because of office based sectors growing by some 4,700 jobs, warehousing increasing by nearly 1,000 jobs but manufacturing still shows decline by 1,900 jobs.
Non B-Space Employment
5.4.5 Non B-space account for nearly all the growth the base projections, which would shift Swansea towards being a more service based than productive based economy. This is largely through growth in Accommodation and Food services, shown earlier in Table 5.2, possibly fuelled by growth in tourism and local residents desire to visits local restaurants and pubs; and also growth in health services, which may reflect the aging population that is common to Swansea as it is in the rest of Wales.
5.4.6 Non B-space sectors also account for the larger share of jobs growth in the economic growth projections, and a higher rate of change. Tourism related sectors and health are still significant in this growth, but so is retail after making adjustments to reflect the planned and progressing regeneration of Swansea’s City Centre and waterfront areas.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 73 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
5.4.7 Education is also identified as a significantly expanding sector with an additional 1,000 jobs projected over the life of the plan.
Neath Port Talbot Employment Sector Requirements
Table 5.5 Neath Port Talbot B-space and Non B-space Employment, 2010-2026 Total Change 2010-26 EE (adj) 2010 2026 No. % Industrial jobs 9,280 8,959 -321 -3.5% Warehousing jobs 5,832 5,652 -180 -3.1% Office jobs 9,960 10,640 680 6.8% B-space jobs 25,072 25,251 179 0.7% Non B-space jobs 25,065 26,675 1,610 6.4% All jobs 50,137 51,926 1,789 3.6% Total Change 2010-26 EE (adj+) 2010 2026 No. % Industrial jobs 9,280 9,245 -35 -0.4% Warehousing jobs 5,832 6,414 583 10.0% Office jobs 9,960 10,640 680 6.8% B-space jobs 25,072 26,299 1,228 4.9% Non B-space jobs 25,065 27,684 2,619 10.4% All jobs 50,137 53,983 3,847 7.7% Source: Experian Economics; PBA
B-Space Employment
5.4.8 As shown in Table 5.5, under the EE (adj) base forecasts, the projections identify very few additional jobs overall within the B-space sectors. Like in Swansea, this is reflecting growth predicated on population and service led change rather than economic activity in business to business trading. Office jobs are shown to increase by some 680 while manufacturing and warehousing jobs decline slightly, possibly reflecting the shift in the economy away from blue to white collar activities.
5.4.9 In the EE (adj+) economic growth projections, there would be significantly more new B- space jobs in Neath Port Talbot largely because warehousing type jobs grow rather than fall with the expansion of ports, plus there would be more jobs in construction activity, which will require warehouse storage for materials, plant and machinery.
Non B-Space Employment
5.4.10 Non B-space sectors also grow more substantially than B-space jobs. In the EE (adj) base case, there are an additional 1,600 jobs which reflects the expansion of service led activities. This grows to 2,250 under our employment growth scenario.
Employment Space Requirements
5.4.11 Traditional B-class Uses
5.4.12 This section forecasts the market requirement for employment floorspace and land space based on employment projections using standard B-space conversion ratios identified in Appendix 1. All the numbers referred to here are net additional figures, presenting the
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 74 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
difference between floorspace gained, mostly from new development, and floorspace lost (for example, where industrial sites are cleared and redeveloped for other uses).
5.4.13 We only consider the requirements for B-space uses, because for the myriad of non B-space use types there are no suitable space standards to convert jobs to space. However, we do touch upon non B-space uses in terms of the types of space which might need to be found to accommodate growth. In particular, we consider non B-Space requirements which have been identified that could potentially be accommodated on employment land. This has implications for the overall quantum of land that is required.
Waste and Utilities
5.4.14 Since many waste management activities fall within the general industrial class in the Use Classes Order and can be considered to be a B2 use, we include land requirements for these proposed waste facilities in the total requirements for B-space land. These allocations are taken from the Regional Waste Plans.
Swansea’s B-Space Requirements
5.4.15 Table 5.6 converts the projected B-space employment figures into B-space space requirements in Swansea. After allowing for the in the Regional Waste Plans, this shows a net gain of 30.5 ha of B-space land under the base case forecasts (EE (adj)) to a net gain of 51.3 ha under the employment growth scenario (EE (adj+)).
Table 5.6 Swansea B-space Requirements, 2010-2025 EE (adj) EE (adj+)
Sqm Ha Sqm Ha Industry -70,978 -17.7 -60,547 -15.1 Warehousing 12,030 3.0 39,859 10.0 Offices 39,022 9.8 83,987 21.0 RWP allocation for land unspecified 35.5 unspecified 35.5 All B-space land requirements 30.5 51.3 NB: figures may not sum exactly due to rounding. Source: PBA
Office Floorspace Requirements
5.4.16 Based on the base employment projections alone, net additional B1 (office) floorspace requirements increase by 39,000 sqm m between 2010 and 2025. As explained in Appendix 1, it is more difficult to provide a land estimate for offices since plot ratios (floorspace to land area) will differ widely from out of town office park locations to town centre locations, however based on a standard (40%) plot ratio, this floorspace requirement would be equivalent to some 10 ha of additional B1 land requirements.
5.4.17 Based on the economic growth employment projections (EE (adj+)), net additional B1 (office) floorspace requirements increase by 84,000 sqm between 2010 and 2025. Based on a standard (40%) plot ratio, this floorspace requirement would be equivalent to some 21 ha of additional B1 land requirements. The Council’s aspiration is to focus new office development in the City Centre and at SA1.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 75 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Industrial and Warehousing Floorspace Requirements
5.4.18 Production and distribution space jobs (industrial and warehousing) may be better merged into one category, called “industrial/warehousing” since production and distribution can generally operate in the same type of buildings and, furthermore, subject to size limitations, space can be transferred between production and distribution without planning permission.
5.4.19 Over the planning period, the industrial floorspace requirement is expected to fall by around 71,000 sqm. This is equivalent to a loss of about 18 ha of land. In contrast, the required warehousing floorspace increases marginally by 12,000 sqm, which would require some 3 ha of net additional employment land. The net supply of required industrial/warehousing land in Swansea is therefore -15 ha.
5.4.20 Under EE (adj+), there are some reduced losses to manufacturing, but warehousing uses would achieve more demand, and this reduces the overall net loss of industrial/warehousing space to 5 ha over the plan period.
Waste and Utilities
5.4.21 Swansea has requirements set out in the Regional Waste Plan for 20.7ha to 29ha of land for in-building waste facilities. This would need to be added to the land provision for B-class development. Swansea’s municipal waste infrastructure primarily comprises the landfill at Tir John, the Baling Plant in Llansamlet and the civic amenity (CA) sites. Future plans are likely to seek additional small areas of land for expansion around the Baling Plant and CA sites to facilitate new recycling strategies. Tir John is not able to expand beyond current boundaries which includes an area to facilitate the option of opening up a further two cells to extend useful life.
5.4.22 The Council is also leading the procurement of an Anaerobic Digestion facility and also Residual Waste treatment facility for the South West Wales region (Swansea, Carms, Pembs, Bridgend and Neath Port Talbot). The Anaerobic Digester procurement is well advanced and the two remaining bidders have put forward proposals for the Pwlfawatkin landfill site in Neath Port Talbot or Pontypool. The land take of such a facility will be approximately 6.5 ha. The residual waste procurement is less advanced and the Council is in the process of developing a business case.
5.4.23 Since many waste management activities fall within the general industrial class in the Use Classes Order and can be considered to be a B2 use, we include land requirements for these proposed waste facilities in the total requirements for B-space land. Further, to ensure future requirements are met, we allow for the largest identified potential allocation, which in Swansea is 29 ha plus 6.5 ha for the AD facility. In total, the net additional land required for industrial/warehousing land, including proposed waste developments in Swansea over the plan period would be (-15.1 + 10.0 +29.0+6.5) 30.4 ha.
Swansea’s Non B-Space Requirements
5.4.24 Some of the existing planned employment land supply may be required for other forms of employment (i.e. non B-space) uses, which are briefly considered here.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 76 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Retail and Hotels & Catering
5.4.25 Most of the employment growth in Retail, Accommodation & Food space should be accommodated in the A land use classes covering Shops, Hotels and Restaurants. The projected increase of around 5,000 jobs in these sectors under the economic growth projections provides an indication on future space requirements; however a more informed assessment of floorspace requirement for these uses (based on population and spending pattern changes) can be derived from a Retail and Leisure Study.
5.4.26 Most of the Retail, Hotel & Catering space should be accommodated either close to population settlements or within town centres to complement retail services and to capture maximum spending. This is the plan under the growth scenario, with Hammerson’s plans for phasing a large scale City Centre redevelopment scheme in the St David's / Quadrant area, with Phase 1 being identified by the Council as having potential to support 1,500 permanent jobs, followed by a larger scheme with future phases that could support 2,000 jobs, although these estimates would vary depending on the eventual nature and scale of proposals. A significant redevelopment of part of Parc Tawe is also likely to feature new retail and leisure occupiers that would generate jobs.
5.4.27 In terms of education space (i.e. learning space), the Welsh Enterprise Academy through Gower College Swansea, is also soon to be launched. This will be based in the 'Innovation Foundry' at the Dylan Thomas Centre, in Swansea City Centre, supporting additional education related jobs, plus Swansea’s university plans for life sciences will be likely to support additional education based jobs.
Health & Social Institutions
5.4.28 The projected growth of some 4,000 jobs in ‘Health’ and ‘Residential Care & Social Work’ represents mainly growth in hospitals and residential care institutions (mainly in the D1 sector). It will be important to plan and respond to the need for new sites and premises across the county borough in order to support service delivery and administrative/ support services within the sector, and to maximise the economic value of this strong existing sector. But it is not possible to identify how much additional space will be required to support this sector’s growth based on employment figures alone, and planning for such facilities should come from the local health trust and service deliverers, subject to normal planning considerations.
5.4.29 Analysis of the 5 Year NHS Plan ‘Changing for the Better’ indicates that proposed health sector investments will be associated with improving the existing hospital campuses and, therefore, no loss of employment land is anticipated.
5.4.30 However, we do expect that there will be demand for some additional space either within existing healthcare sites or on new sites. Such institutions could locate anywhere, although there is likely to be some benefit in having easy access to facilities and families. Communal uses such as sheltered housing and retirement homes should be considered within new housing developments.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 77 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Other (Non B-space) Activities
5.4.31 Floorspace estimates do not normally include sectors like Agriculture, Construction, Defence (military activities), Transport and Telecommunications, and some of the Miscellaneous Services, because they are likely to fall under Sui Generis land use classes. Given the relatively small employment growth in such sectors, it would not be appropriate to set targets against which to plan over time, but rather to consider each case or permissions on its merits when brought forward by the market.
Neath Port Talbot’s B-Space Requirements
5.4.32 Table 5.7 converts the projected B-space employment figures into B-space space requirements in Neath Port Talbot. Under the base case forecasts (EE (adj)), there is an overall net gain of 10.1 ha of B-space land to a net gain of 20.0 ha under the employment growth scenario (EE (adj+)).
Table 5.7 Neath Port Talbot B-space Requirements, 2010-2026 EE (adj) EE (adj+)
Sqm Ha Sqm Ha Industry -10,201 -2.6 -1,107 -0.3 Warehousing -7,210 -1.8 23,359 5.8 Offices 12,172 3.0 12,172 3.0 RWP allocation for land unspecified 11.4 unspecified 11.4 All B-space land requirements unspecified 10.1 unspecified 20.0 NB: figures may not sum exactly due to rounding. Source: PBA
Office Floorspace Requirements
5.4.33 Based on the base employment projections alone, net additional B1 (office) floorspace requirements increase by 12,200 sqm m between 2010 and 2026, which would generate a net additional requirement of about 3 ha of additional B1 land requirements. This stays the same under the economic growth projections, because the office sector is not where the local drivers for growth appear to be.
Industrial and Warehousing Floorspace Requirements
5.4.34 Like for Swansea, we merged production and distribution into one category, called “industrial/warehousing” since production and distribution can generally operate in the same type of buildings and, furthermore, subject to size limitations, space can be transferred between production and distribution without planning permission.
5.4.35 Over the planning period, the industrial/warehousing floorspace requirement is expected to fall by around 17,400 sqm m. This is equivalent to a loss of about 4.5 ha of land. In contrast, under the EE (adj+) scenario, there would be a net positive requirement for this type of space, equal to 22,250 sqm, or 5.5 ha of land.
Waste and Utilities
5.4.36 The Regional Waste Plan stipulates that Neath Port Talbot needs between 8.3 to 11.4 hectares of land for in-building waste facilities, which can be on B2 use land. To ensure
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 78 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
future requirements are met, we allow for the largest identified potential allocation, which in Neath Port Talbot is 11.4 ha
5.4.37 In addition to these plans, planning permission has been granted for an additional biomass facility at the Junction 38 site in Neath Port Talbot and land has been earmarked for energy generating uses at Baglan Energy Park. Abernedd Power Ltd has secured planning permission for a 450 MW power station on a 24 ha plot at Baglan Bay. This is due for construction in 2012/13. It should be noted that this permission does not count towards the future provision total (20 ha) set out below.
5.4.38 In total, the net additional land required for industrial/warehousing land, including proposed waste developments in Neath Port Talbot over the plan period would be (-0.3 + 5.8 +11.4) 16.9 ha.
Neath Port Talbot’s Non B-Space Requirements
5.4.39 Some of the existing planned employment land supply may be required for other forms of employment (i.e. non B-space) uses, which were briefly considered here. Generally, none of the B-space uses are anticipated to require any significant amounts of space.
Mining
5.4.40 In the EE (adj+) there is further growth of some 500 jobs to reflect the potential expansion of mining under TaTa Steel proposals to reflect the expansion of mining and utilities sectors with the Energy Park’s expansion at Baglan Bay. The space for mining activity and energy activity would fall under the Sui Generis land use class, but nevertheless their land take and premises type will still be similar to industrial/warehousing type uses, and generally could co- exist alongside them. For example, this would be the case with the proposed investment for a ‘super’ mine at Margam, and the energy sector expansion at Baglan Bay. This would question whether additional employment sites on B2 land would be required to cater for these uses, however it would not be appropriate to set allocations for mining and energy related uses in the future employment land allocation, but rather to consider each case or permissions on its merits as and when brought forward by the market.
Health & Social Institutions
5.4.41 In particular the projected growth of some 1,150 jobs in Health & Social Care represents mainly growth in hospitals and residential care institutions (mainly in the D1 sector). It will be important to plan and respond to the need for new sites and premises across the county in order to support service delivery and administrative/ support services within the sector, and to maximise the economic value of this strong existing sector. But it is not possible to identify how much additional space will be required to support this sector’s growth based on employment figures alone, and planning for such facilities should come from the local health trust and service deliverers, subject to normal planning considerations.
5.4.42 However, we do expect that there will be demand for some additional space either within existing sites or on new sites. Such institutions could locate anywhere, although there is likely to be some benefit in having easy access to facilities and families. Communal uses
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 79 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
such as sheltered housing and retirement homes should be considered within new housing developments.
Education
5.4.43 The most significant non B-space land requirement is for a new University campus at Fabian Way. The Outline Planning Application for the 27.9 ha campus, which incorporates innovation facilities, is currently being considered by Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council.
Other (Non B-space) Activities
5.4.44 Floorspace estimates do not normally include sectors like Agriculture, Construction, Defence (military activities), Utilities and Telecommunications, and some of the Miscellaneous Services, because they are likely to fall under Sui Generis land use classes. Given the relatively small employment growth in such sectors, it would not be appropriate to set targets against which to plan over time, but rather to consider each case or permissions on its merits when brought forward by the market.
5.5 Conclusion
5.5.1 We have considered two sets of employment forecasts for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot, and through adjustments have derived two scenario forecasts providing a base case projection and an economic growth led projection. The former are based on Experian Economics forecasts with minor sector adjustments for potential inaccuracies, which we label EE (adj), or the ‘base case’. The latter involved a nominal 20% point increase to the base case to reflect the known or expected bottom up potential for driving growth in the local areas.
Swansea
5.5.2 Based on these forecasts, Swansea’s economy would achieve an additional 6,100 jobs; however this increases to 14,700 jobs over the LDP planning period from 2010 to 2025 as a result of policy interventions.
5.5.3 In terms of planning for space to support delivery of these jobs, it has been identified that in Swansea that up to some 16 hectares of employment land might need to be identified and set aside specifically for B-space uses, which includes 84,000 sqm (21 ha) for offices coupled with a 5 ha loss in industrial/warehousing uses. Approximately 45% of all jobs will be accommodated in this space, and it is therefore important to plan for this through strategic land allocations. Despite the projected net loss of requirements for industrial/warehousing sites, there is still likely to be gross demand for new space which should not be neglected by a rigid quantitative approach. It will therefore be necessary to ensure that an on-going available land supply is provided for this demand over the plan period. The space available within existing employment sites that is either currently available or will come available following declines in jobs, is expected to provide enough suitable land for viable redevelopment options. This provision of supplying for a margin of gross demand (or churn) is discussed further in Chapter 8.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 80 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
5.5.4 A further allocation of 35.5 ha is also required for Waste requirements, which would normally take B2 industrial land. Therefore the additional requirement for future waste facilities would result in a positive requirement for industrial/warehousing land over the life of the plan equivalent to 30.4 ha.
5.5.5 In total, Swansea is likely to have a B-space land requirement for 51.3 ha over the life of the LDP.
5.5.6 The remaining – non B-space - jobs will be planned through retail planning, new education facilities and a number of sui-generis uses. Some jobs will also be accommodated through homeworking and therefore would not require additional space.
Neath Port Talbot
5.5.7 Based on these forecasts, Neath Port Talbot’s economy would achieve an additional 1,800 to 3,850 jobs over the LDP 15 years planning period. With approximately half of all jobs being accommodated in this space, it is therefore important to plan for this through strategic land allocations, for which we estimated some 34,400 sqm of net additional floorspace might need to be identified, which is equivalent to a vacant employment land supply of 8.6 ha over the period of the plan.
5.5.8 A further allocation of 11.4 ha is also required for meeting the Regional Waste Plan requirements, which would normally take B2 industrial land. Therefore the additional requirement for future waste facilities would result in a positive requirement for industrial/warehousing land over the life of the plan equivalent to 17 ha.
5.5.9 In total, Neath Port Talbot is likely to have a B-space land requirement for 20 ha over the life of the LDP.
5.5.10 The remaining – non B-space - jobs will be planned through retail planning, new education facilities and a number of sui-generis uses, while some jobs will also grow through homeworking and therefore not require additional space.
5.5.11 The employment projections shown in this chapter remain largely trend based with some adjustment to reflect potential local developments. They do not embody policy inputs such as targeted labour force levels based on population increases through housing supply in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot. Such policy scenarios will be investigated in the next chapter of this study by looking at changes in future population in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot and what is required to support the level of growth identified in this chapter.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 81 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
6 Sites Assessment
6.1 Introduction
6.1.1 This chapter summarises the results of site appraisals of existing employment land and potential employment sites in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot. Peter Brett Associates have undertaken the site appraisal work in Swansea whilst officers from Neath Port Talbot Council have undertaken site appraisal within the County Borough.
6.1.2 The objective of the site appraisals is to consider the suitability of existing employment land provision to inform recommendations on future employment policy and potential development proposals to meet the demand for land identified in Chapter 5. In considering the allocation of employment land it is important that requirements should be focused on where demand is expected to be strongest, and also for supporting the delivery of planning objectives to delivering stronger, more resilient communities (by reducing unemployment), and by managing future development to ensure that communities have an appropriate balance of jobs (based on job densities).
6.2 Swansea Sites Assessment
6.2.1 All existing employment sites, UDP allocations and candidate sites were visually assessed during the course of this study. The Swansea Site Assessments have been undertaken in two parts. Part 1, considers existing employment sites and UDP allocations
Part 2, includes a broad strategic review of the candidate sites by market area.
6.2.2 Part 1 of the site assessment work sought to identify which sites were in good use and which were still available for development. The employment market has evolved since the Swansea UDP was completed and several allocations have been taken up. The objective of Part 1 was to update information on existing employment and UDP allocations to identify which sites were available for future employment development and which sites should be safeguarded for continued employment use.
6.2.3 Part 2 of the site assessment work was sought to identify additional broad areas of search for the Council to use as a basis in the event that the additional employment provision is required. Part 2 has considered the Candidate sites submitted as part of the LDP consultation process on a broad market area basis to identify potential sites that the Council could consider further if needed.
6.3 Part 1 Site Assessment
6.3.1 Visits to individual sites in Part 1 were used to assess employment suitability against environmental constraints, access, commercial attractiveness and deliverability criteria. The first step of Part 1 was to identify all existing sites that currently support employment, e.g. those currently in use with relatively low vacancy levels and are likely to continue to be attractive to the market and those contained in the Swansea UDP.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 82 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
6.3.2 Table 6.1 illustrates the site included in the Part 1 sites assessment. Specifically it highlights all existing employment sites and the UDP allocations within them.
Table 6.1 Existing Employment Sites and UDP Allocations included in Part 1
Land Potential Plots Assessed (Reference No’s are Existing Employment Sites Available? applicable to Appendix 2) 021 – Caravan Storage 022 – South of New Road Crofty Industrial Estate Yes 023 – Vieola Site 024 – North of New Road 025 – Edge of New Road Camarthen Road Industrial No N/A Estate 004 – St David’s Road Morriston South 005 – Ferryboat Close, Morriston South 006 – Viking Way, Winch Wen 010 – Siemens Way Enterprise Park Yes 011 – North of St David’s Road, Morriston South 036 – Llansamlet Industrial Estate 037 – Coronet Way, Morriston South 038 – Century Park 033 – Bryntwood Road 034 – Garden Centre Felindre Yes 035 – Main Site 039 – Northern Extension Millbrook Industrial Estate No N/A Morfa Road Industrial Estate No N/A Gorseinon Business Park No N/A 012 – Garngoch Industrial Estate Garngoch Industrial Estate Yes 028 – South of Garngoch industrial Estate Kingsbridge Business Park No N/A and Mardy Industrial Estate Parc Fforrest Fach No N/A
015 – Land North of players Industrial Estate Players Industrial Estate Yes 026 – Edge of Players Industrial Estate Pontarddulais Industrial Estate No N/A 013 – Edge of Penllegaer Penllegaer Business Park Yes 014 – Penllergaer Business Park SA 1 Waterfront Yes 032 – SA 1 Remainder 001 – Former Greyhound Stadium 002 – Adjacent to TIMET Works Swansea West Industrial 007 – Bruce Road Yes Estate 008 – North of Abergelly Road 009 – South of Abergelly Road 016 – Felin Fach/Corporation Road 003 – Century Business Park 017 – Sandringham Park (A) 018 – Sandringham Park (B) Swansea Vale Yes 019 – Central Business Park (A) 020 – Central Business Park (B) 027 – NE Swansea Vale 029 – Fabian Way Entrance Swansea Docks Yes 030 – Fabian Way Frontage 031 – Swansea Docks (South)
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 83 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
6.3.3 The assessment of each UDP site is provided in Appendix 2. Our recommendations about these sites have been grouped into four categories, which are:
Undeliverable sites and sites developed for employment (e.g. in use or fully taken up since UDP allocation);
Deliverable sites within and adjacent to existing employment estates;
Regionally significant sites for strategic sites for inward Investment; and
City Centre Sites.
6.3.4 The objective of this grouping is to update the Council employment site portfolio and remove sites that have been developed or are considered undeliverable. The process will identify a list of potential employment sites that could be considered by the council to address demand for employment land and floorspace. Sites within each group are illustrated on Figure 6.1 and Figure 6.2 overleaf.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 84 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Figure 6.1 Part 1 Site Assessment – City Centre/ Waterfront and Swansea Vale/Enterprise Park)
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 85 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Figure 6.2 Part 1 Site Assessment – (Swansea West and Swansea North)
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 86 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
6.3.5 Details of the sites within each grouping are also presented in Tables 6.2 to 6.4 below.
Undeliverable Sites and Sites Developed for Employment
6.3.6 Table 6.2 lists sites considered either unsuitable/undeliverable at this time and sites that have been developed or are in use for employment purposes at the time of the assessment (e.g. in use and fully taken up since UDP allocation).
Table 6.2: Undeliverable Sites and Sites Developed for Employment (e.g. in use and fully taken up since UDP allocation) Site Assessment Site Name Area (ha) Comment Ref. No. Flood protection and highways works undermine deliverability. Could be Former Greyhound 001 12.7 considered alongside other candidate sites, Stadium, Fforest-fach as site is part of wider potential urban extension being promoted by land owners. Large site next to TIMET/Alcoa works. Flood protection and highways works required. Could be delivered as part of Land adjoining TIMET 002 11.5 potential urban extension, with some works, Swansea West employment uses. This would need scoping through an appropriate masterplan for the site. St.David’s Road, 004 1.1 PDL site in use as a car storage depot. Morriston South Recycling facility, 005 0.9 Site is currently in use as a recycling facility. Morriston South North of Phoenix Road, 012 Garngoch Industrial 2.8 Fully built out UDP allocation. Estate Lack of Market Demand in this location. Edge of Penllergaer 013 6.2 Extensions to existing business park Business Park possible but unlikely to be brought forward. Sandringham Park, 017 + 018 1.2 Fully built out UDP allocations. Swansea Vale Remaining plots to the rear of units accessed from Mill Stream Way. Significant Central Business (B) 020 4.2 constraints including flood risk and lack of Park, Swansea Vale sewerage capacity prevent further development. Caravan Site, Crofty 021 0.4 Site is in use for caravan storage. Industrial Estate Vieola Site, Crofty 023 1.2 Site in use for employment purposes. Industrial Estate PDL plots on industrial estate that requires End of New Road, Crofty 025 2.0 levelling and potential flood prevention Industrial Estate works. Limited market demand. Large strategic site close to M4 on the edge of a successful business park which has proved attractive to B1 occupiers through developments. Current proposed works to ameliorate flood risk will reduce the site Riverside North, area by around a half. A new flood defence 027 Swansea Vale. 5.0 is to be constructed diagonally NE to SW
across the site. The primary purpose of these works is to mitigate flood risk across the wider Swansea Vale estate, but will not enable new development at this particular site. Land use options going forward are
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 87 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Site Assessment Site Name Area (ha) Comment Ref. No. limited to informal/low intensity leisure uses. Greenfield land adjoining sites 034, 035 and Felindre, Brentwood 039. The site will require significant 033 8.1 Road infrastructure works and is not as well located as 035. Part PDL land adjoining sites 033, 035 and 034 Felindre Garden Centre 7.9 039. The site will require significant infrastructure works to unlock it. PDL site on Llansamlet Industrial Estate. Llansamlet Industrial The area has proved attractive to high 036 2.3 Estate profile B1 users, but flood risk issues will need to be addressed. Flood protection, access and possible de- Coronet Road, Morriston 037 2.1 contamination works will be required to South bring the site forward. Small site adjoining Alberta Culver unit. Alberta Culver, Century 038 0.3 Flood risk and access issues to be Park addressed. Limited potential. Total 69.9 ha
6.3.7 Table 6.2 identifies a total of 69.9 ha of employment land that is not considered available/deliverable for future employment use.
6.3.8 Of this 69.9 ha, sites representing 62.3 hectares of land, are considered unsuitable or undeliverable for employment purposes. These sites are relatively poorly located, unattractive to the market and/or have some development constraints which will limit their potential to meet developer/occupier demand over the plan period. It is recommended that these sites are de-alloacated from the UDP, but keep under review if demand for employment land required the Council to identified new sites. This is particularly relevant for some sites within the group, which have been promoted as part of wider urban extension proposals and could become deliverable.
6.3.9 Table 6.2 also identifies 7.6 ha of land that has been developed or in use for employment purposes. These sites reflect market activity since the adoption of the UDP and are not considered available to support future employment growth. It is recommend that these sites are also discounted from consideration and included with other existing employment sites to be safeguarded through Council planning policy.
Deliverable Sites Within and Adjacent to Existing Employment Estates
6.3.10 Table 6.3 sets out the remaining UDP sites that are considered suitable and deliverable for employment uses.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 88 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Table 6.3: Deliverable Sites Within and Adjacent to Existing Employment Estates Site Assess Developable Site Name Comment ment area (ha) Ref No. Plots available adjacent to Riverside South, Swansea 003 5.2 successful modern B1 location Vale (including Axis Court). Good site. Pocket of land adjoining existing industrial estate. No known 006 Winch Wen Industrial Estate 1.1 constraints, although not as commercially attractive as some sites. Flat greenfield site within successful 007 Bruce Road, Swansea West 1.8 business park. No known constraints to delivery. Small site within business park. Secondary site with dirty use South of Abergelly Road, 009 0.4 neighbours. Limited market appeal Swansea West but could be valuable for the right business. Flat site adjoining Siemens Way Siemens Way, Enterprise 010 1.2 with no known constraints. Requires Park, Swansea new access. Flat PDL site adjoining River Tawe. Flood, access and possible North of St Davids Rd, 011 3.2 contamination issues are considered Morriston South by the Council to be capable of being overcome to enable delivery. Remaining plot on existing business 014 Penllergaer Business Park 0.6 park. Low market demand. The site is heavily constrained by flood and access issues. The Land North of Players 015 1.9 Council consider that these may be Industrial Estate covercome during the course of the plan period. Remaining serviced plots at Felin Fach / Corporation Road 016 4.0 successful business location. No Swansea West constraints identified. Central Business Park (A), Remaining serviced plot at 019 0.9 Swansea Vale successful B8 location. Remaining PDL plots on industrial South of New Road, Crofty 022 0.4 estate serving small local business Industrial Estate needs. Limited market demand. Remaining PDL plots on industrial North of New Road, Crofty 024 0.7 estate serving small local business Industrial Estate needs. Limited market demand. Flood and ecology issues undermine delivery. The Council Land South of Players 026 1.9 consider the site is capable of Industrial Estate delivery towards the later part of the plan period. Extension to existing industrial South of Garngoch Industrial 028 3.6 estate. The land is flat and already Estate has an access point. Remaining plots of PDL land around main access to Port from Fabian 029 Swansea Port Gateway 2.5 Way. Suitable for B8 uses linked to Port in particular.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 89 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Site Assess Developable Site Name Comment ment area (ha) Ref No. Large PDL sites adjoining Swansea Port. Swansea Port Area is considered suitable for storage and distribution activities linked to the docks, and any expansion of the docks through off shore based activities like Atlantic Array and the Severn Barrage, (should they go ahead). The site has some 22.9 ha 030 + of land for such uses, which tend to Swansea Port Area 22.9 031 require large land spaces, and this amount of space should be protected in to retain the necessary capacity for the port to benefit from potential future port uses. But these two adjacent sites are not likely to come forward in the short term for these reason, plus some opening up works will be required which is suitable for vehicular access. Remaining plots available at major mixed use development site at 032 SA1 5.9 Swansea waterfront. Suitable for B1 uses. Total 58.2 ha
6.3.11 Table 6.3 identifies 58.2 ha of employment land within and adjacent to existing employment sites that is considered suitable and deliverable for future employment use.
6.3.12 Propotionally 35.3 ha of this land is contained within existing employment estates. In general, deliverable employment sites within existing employment estates are small previously developed and greenfield plots, that have been available for some time and whilst theoretically suitable may have limited market attractiveness. There are also some, such as SA1 and those within the developed parts of Swansea Vale, which might take time to come forward, but have seen recent development activity.
6.3.13 It is considered that sites within existing employment estates could be delivered through a flexible approach to employment provision, by safeguarding the sites through planning policy, as part of the wider existing employment estate and letting the market deliver them within the constraints of Local Development Plan policy. Likewise, some sites could potentially be lost to alternative uses, including other sui generis employment uses, but this would occur within the confines of Council policy. Our recommended approach for the flexible safeguarding and potential release of all existing employment estates is through the assessment of planning applications for individual sites using set criteria (see recommendations in Chapter 8) and not via specific allocation.
6.3.14 The remaining 22.9 ha of land identified in Table 6.3 is adjacent to existing employments areas, specifically Swansea Port (ref: 030+031). Both parts represent good opportunities to meet future business needs and it is recommended that they are strategically allocated for employment use in the emerging LDP.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 90 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Regionally Significant Sites Suitable for Inward Investment
6.3.15 The third group includes several sites that collectively form the regionally significant site at Felindre. Felindre is situated in the north of the County at J46 of the M4 and includes a significant brownfield area in excess of 40 ha, which was previously occupied by the Felindre Tinplate Works that closed in 1996 and is now owned by Swansea Council. The extensive greenfield element of the site is owned by the Welsh Government. Significantly a programme of strategic infrastructure works has already been initiated to allow the development of the site to proceed. These include a dedicated junction to the M4 (J46) to serve Felindre, diversion of the former Felindre Road around the site, relocation of overhead power cables, a strategic sewer system and a strategic electricity supply to serve the development area.
6.3.16 Development of the site is being brought forward as a Joint Venture between the Council and the Welsh Government with a Joint Venture Agreement (JVA) signed in 2009 which runs to 2019. A programme of infrastructure works is currently being tendered to bring forward Phase 1 of the Strategic Business Park building on the investment already undertaken.
6.3.17 The Council and Welsh Government’s vision for Felindre is to develop the site as a high level strategic business park serving South Wales. Developments are intended to be of high design quality for specific B1, B2 uses only, to accommodate emerging industries, high tech manufacturing and high level services plus ancillary uses, providing for a range of sizes and spaces. The key strategic objectives are to:
Develop a high quality sustainable strategic business park in a parkland setting for high level uses;
Maximise job creation;
Provide a regionally significant employment site that can accommodate a significant investment opportunity; and
Complement the portfolio of lower order employment sites that serve a local function.
6.3.18 Table 6.4 identifies that 193 ha are available and it is recommended that the main brownfield site being progressed as Phase 1 should be allocated as a regionally significant site. It is considered that the Council should monitor take-up at Felindre and release additional sites when appropriate. The Council have informed us that there have been several nearly achieved deals with potential occupiers in recent years for large scale investment at Felindre, therefore the pace of take-up is very uncertain and mixed use options to provide cross subsidy or alternative employment options such as sui generis uses and waste facility should not be ruled out.
6.3.19 The strategy for Felindre makes it clear that general manufacturing, processing and office services are not appropriate at this site. In terms of offices the Council consider that these would be better suited to a City Centre location. It is recommended because of the strategic nature and significant investment in Felindre, the site is safeguarded specifically for unknown inward investment opportunities and not counted towards meeting future employment demand identified in Chapter 5. On this basis, and to avoid that future employment being
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 91 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
weakened in the City Centre, the Waterfront and in major established employment sites, Felindre should have a tailored allocation policy to avoid it being seen as available for existing business relocations within the City and County area.
Table 6.4 Regionally Significant Sites Suitable for Inward Investment Site Assess Developabl Site Name Comment ment e area (ha) Ref No. Large PDL site next to Junction 46 of the M4 which benefits from good access to the M4 and considerable funding has already been invested in site preparation. A Joint Venture Agreement remains in place to deliver the site and several adjacent sites.
Felindre, Phase 1 Based on quantified requirements and 035 43 (Brownfield) market demand going forward it is likely that the site might attract large inward investment opportunities. Unless very large business requirements come forward, the site will take time to achieve full take up, and it is likely therefore that some land may not be expected to be built for employment uses until after the plan period. Large area of land to the north west of site Felindre Northern 035. The site is part PDL and predominantly 039 134 Extension (greenfield) in agricultural use. Significant works required to unlock the site. Total 177
City Centre Sites
6.3.20 The Swansea City Centre Strategic Framework sets out the Vision for Swansea City Centre as:
“A vibrant, exciting, attractive, sustainable, cultured European Waterfront City Centre, attracting business and visitors, driving the economy and enhancing the quality of life of residents of Swansea and South West Wales”
6.3.21 The Strategic framework sets out a retail led regeneration strategy as part of a mixed use city wide approach to regeneration. To generate a step change in the overall quality of the City Centre and encourage a more diverse and successful economy the development strategy includes a number of components:
Retail: New retail space will increase both employment and spending opportunities within the City Centre and reduce expenditure and visitor leakage to other areas;
Employment Space: it is essential to promote a pipeline of high quality modern employment space in the City Centre to encourage investment and expansion opportunities;
City Centre Living: This is an important tool in ensuring a more successful and diverse economy as it provides a level of vibrancy outside traditional retail opening hours and stimulates leisure and cultural facilities;
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 92 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Knowledge-Based Economy: Promotion of a diversity of employment opportunities and sectors; and further partnership with education bodies such as Swansea Institute, Swansea College and Swansea University will have significant benefits for the City Centre. Such partnership activity will address skills and training opportunities to attract inward investment, but could also involve increasing student accommodation within the City Centre; and
Enhances Visitor Destination: As a consequence of new development and greater activity in the City Centre, the opportunity for Swansea to become a more diverse and attractive destination will have a significant impact on the local economy.
6.3.22 The development strategy sets out key actions for implementation and includes a specific requirement to promote office and commercial development to meet employment forecasts for the City. It is suggested that a development target of 70,000 sqm in the City Centre over the plan period should be provided. Specifically the strategy suggests:
Direct such development to the City Centre, potentially with public sector funding support or through other procurement vehicles and restraint on out of centre development (without constraining significant investment opportunities);
Support the provision of a range of size of offices to rent or buy;
Promote the development of Paxton Street as a landmark mixed-use development containing offices in the short to medium term;
Promote the developments of commercially viable offices as part of new mixed use developments throughout the City Centre, and place particular emphasis on the contribution of office development in secondary areas; and
Acknowledge the potential need for public sector interventions to achieve financial viability and agree for phasing and implementation with the Welsh Government.
6.3.23 Since a large quantum of new B1 office space could be delivered on sites identified in Table 6.3 and at Felindre, the Council needs to ensure that the competing demands of the City Centre on one hand and other location on the other is balanced. There should be growth in the City Centre by intensifying employment use on existing sites and this should be positively encouraged.
6.3.24 The complicated problem is the provision of City Centre Employment is dependent on floorspace provision and careful consideration needs to be given to the level of land provision elsewhere in the City. To assist in this consideration the study has sought to convert floorspace to land requirement for the City Centre. Whilst not a useful measure for the identification of sites in the City Centre, it does allow the Council to take a view on the overall land requires when set against demand.
6.3.25 Based on the following assumption range, it is identified that 70,000 sqm equates to approximately 2.6– 4.4 ha: Building high of 2 to 3 storey; and
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 93 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Building footprint ratio of 80-90%.
6.3.26 The indicative land range will help the Council to consider new employment provision across the City in the knowledge that 3.4 ha (average) of brownfield land is likely to be required in the City Centre to meet demand in Chapter 5.
6.3.27 We recommend encouraging new modern A grade office developments in Swansea’s City Centre area and towards the waterfront because it has the infrastructure to deal with travel to work patterns generated by large office schemes, and it is accessible for most of Swansea’s residents.
6.3.28 While avoiding being overly prescriptive about which sites in the City Centre should be redeveloped – because this should be determined by the market - redevelopment of sites close to the station could present some possibilities, including along the High Street, and along Alexandra Road to Mansel Street where existing offices are currently located but need modernising. If growth is required, then short/medium term options include safeguarding these vacant town centre offices for creating more modern business space.
6.4 Part 2 Site Assessment (Candidate Sites)
6.4.1 As part of the LDP process the Council invited the submission of sites from developers, landowners and the public for potential allocation. These sites are being considered by the Council for specific uses. The identification for specific uses must be founded on robust and credible assessment of the suitability and availability of land for particular uses, or mix of uses, and the probability that it will be developed. Sites must also fit within the context of the Plan’s vision, objectives and overall growth strategy. To assist in this process the Part 2 site assessment provides a high level assessment of candidate sites by broad market area.
6.4.2 Figure 6.3 and Figure 6.4 overleaf highlights the candidate sites in purple, whilst UDP allocations are shown in red. It should be noted that some of the UDP allocations and candidate sites are duplicates.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 94 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Figure 6.3 LDP Candidate Sites - (City Centre/ Waterfront and Swansea Vale/Enterprise Park)
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 95 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Figure 6.4 LDP Candidate Sites – (Swansea West and Swansea North)
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 96 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
6.4.3 The candidate sites have been assessed across four market areas. These are summarised below:
Swansea City Centre/Waterfront – This area saw significant investment prior to the economic downturn at SA1, which is now established as a focus for office development in the area, with good rental levels being achieved. The attractive location, within walking distance of the City Centre and close to the proposed new University campus on Fabian Way, will continue to prove attractive to businesses requiring Grade A office premises. These could be delivered within a mixed use redevelopment of the area. Occupiers of B8 premises will be more attracted to sites further from the City Centre, adjacent to the Port.
Swansea Vale/Enterprise Park – The successful delivery of employment sites like Axis Court highlights the commercial attractiveness of this location for B1/B2/B8 uses. This attractiveness is enhanced by good strategic links to the M4. The further development of UDP allocations to the north, once flood protection measures have been implemented, will provide new serviced employment land to meet demand for Grade A premises.
Swansea West – Fforest-fach and Penllergaer are popular employment locations to the west of the city. There are well established employment areas at Swansea West Business Park and Garngoch Industrial Estate, which have proved to be popular for B2 and B8 uses in particular. Recent take-up of land for design and build options at both of these sites emphasises this.
North of the City – The north of the city, located around Junction 46/47 of the M4, is relatively isolated from the city and largely underdeveloped for employment uses. Take up has been slow at sites adjacent to Junction 47. However, the good access to the M4, particularly to the north, should make the most significant site (Felindre) attractive to businesses requiring medium to large B1c and B8 premises. The longer term attractiveness of this area will be boosted if urban extensions to the south of the motorway are delivered to create better links with the city and the resident population.
6.4.4 Table 6.5 provides a high level assessment of candidate sites not already considered in Part 1. Those sites that overlap with UDP allocations are excluded in order to avoid duplication. Many of these sites are located close to or adjoining UDP sites that are identified as being suitable for employment allocation in the LDP. They therefore offer alternative options for allocation should current allocations not prove deliverable in the future.
6.4.5 The most notable alternative employment allocations are located close to the City Centre. Sites CA015 and CA016 in particular offer the chance to build on the success of SA1 as an office location. Office space at these locations could be delivered as part of a mixed use development of these sites.
6.4.6 Elsewhere there is potential to provide some employment provision within potential urban extensions. However, whilst there is potential to include some employment (B1/B2/B8) within mixed use urban extensions around Swansea West Business Park (Fforest-fach) and close to Garngoch Industrial Estate (Penllergaer).
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 97 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Table 6.5 Candidate Sites Assessment Candidate Area Size (ha) Suitability Recommendation sites PDL site close to City Centre. Currently in use Could assist in the delivery of the City Centre Strategy with CA015 8.9 for leisure activities. Suitable for B1 or mixed B1 or potentially mixed use development incorporating uses. retail and leisure uses. Large site on Waterfront. Existing uses include Could assist in the delivery of the City Centre Strategy with car parks and retail. Edges of site bordered by CA016 14.1 B1 or potentially mixed use development incorporating Waterfront residential developments. Suitable retail and leisure uses. for B1 or mixed uses. Not as well located in relation to the City Centre as other Swansea City Small site between SA1 and residential areas ST007 1.8 sites. Therefore, potentially surplus to employment Centre/Waterfront to the north of Fabian Way. requirements. PDL site on Waterside. Accessed from Fabian Could be considered for Port related employment uses if Way. Located close to Port and proposed additional land is required or alternatively for green ST002 6.9 University campus. Site servicing and flood economy or higher end industrial use as part of the protection required. proposed University campus. Site on the edge of River Tawe. Not identified Considered most likely to be residential rather than ST010 3.6 in Flood Risk area but would need to be employment led. reviewed. Potentially suitable. Small site located between railway and River Safeguard as part of wider employment estate. Potential to LA001 1.8 Tawe. Currently in industrial use. complement mixed use redevelopment as part of the Tawe Neighbouring sites are industrial. regeneration corridor. Site adjacent to the A217 that is currently in Too far from City Centre for B1 uses. Too small for stand- use as a car park. Located close to Swansea alone business park. Potentially better located for other LA005 2.8 City FC Stadium. Potentially better located for commercial uses. Potentially expensive to deliver due to retail and/or leisure uses. Mine buildings on possible contamination and former use. site. Site adjacent to the A217 that is PDL. Located Too far from City Centre for B1 uses. Too small for stand- Swansea Vale/Enterprise close to Swansea City FC Stadium. Potentially alone business park. Potentially better located for other LA006 2.3 Park better located for retail and/or leisure uses. commercial uses. Potentially expensive to deliver due to Mine buildings on site. possible contamination and former use. Part PDL site to the rear of Morfa Shopping Centre. Mainly wooded site bordered by railway and River Tawe. Could be suitable for Could be considered in part for employment uses BM011 21.5 B8 uses, but would need to address amenity (B1c/B8), as part of wider development issues of recent residential permissions on Nantong Way . Good road access in place. Small site located next to tennis centre and Consider as part of larger site with BM011, but may be BM026 1.1 Morfa Shopping Village. No room for more suited to leisure or other commercial development
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 98 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Candidate Area Size (ha) Suitability Recommendation sites expansion unless site BM011 is developed for within the context of the existing retail and leisure park. employment uses. Large area identified for Swansea Vale urban The remaining land to the East is considered to be more extension. Large areas have already been suitable for residential development. Undeveloped UDP LS010 189.0 developed for employment uses. Greenfield allocations (site reference 027) to the East are considered land to the West is well located but part in Part 1. developed for residential. Small site on edge of Cwmdu Trade Park, Consider for residential led mixed use development with C0014 0.5 accessed from Carmarthen Road. Neighbours low impact B1c use to provide appropriate buffer between residential areas. residential and employment. Large part PDL parkland site on urban fringe to the west of the city. Part occupied by large Suitable for residential led urban extension, potentially SK017 34.9 nursing home and estate. Bordered by including B1a uses. residential uses. Greenfield site close to Swansea West Unsuitable for employment premises due to neighbouring CO008 15.8 Business Park. Neighbouring uses include residential uses. residential and railway. Greenfield site close to Swansea West Unsuitable for employment premises due to neighbouring CO009 19.3 Business Park. Neighbouring uses include residential uses. residential. It is recommended that the Council consider this site as part of a larger development option rather than a stand Swansea West alone employment allocation. The study cannot prempt the Employment site occupied by Alcoa/TIMET. wider consideration or urban extension locations being Large relatively low quality building, but undertaken by the Council and therefore a definitive CO021 39.2 expensive to redevelop in isolation. Market recommendation is subject to wider considerations beyond attractivity is considered lo be low particularly the remit of this study. If existing employers review their in its current form. operations from the site and comprehensive redevelopment becomes an option the Council could retain consummate existing level of employment land as part residential led urban extension/redevelopment. Large urban extension promoted through the LDP candidate sites process. The emerging masterplan includes mainly residential with employment on UDP sites Greenfield site adjacent to Swansea West CO010 173.7 REF 001 and 002. It is recommended that the Council Business Park. consider the site and wider area subject to their consideration of the need and suitability of a wider development in this location.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 99 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Candidate Area Size (ha) Suitability Recommendation sites
Greenfield site on northern fringe of settlement PD001 3.33.3 close to residential uses. Not suitable for Consider for alternative uses. employment uses.
Former Bryngwyn Works at Goresinon. The is Potentially more suitable for retail or residential uses, surround by a mix of uses including GO012 1.7 although some employment could be considered adjacent employment, and residential. The site has to existing business uses if required. extant planning consent for a retail foodstore.
Small site adjacent to Garngoch Industrial GO013 2.9 Consider for employment use if required. estate. Suitable for B2/B8 uses. Part greenfield site to the north of Gorseinon. Relatively isolated from other employment Difficult site to deliver. Potentially suitable for expansion if GO024 10.4 uses, apart from former Valeo premises. New required by existing businesses. The Council should keep access needs to be achieved and site the site under review. servicing. Large PDL site on edge of Gorseinon. Largely Not suitable for employment due to potential conflict with GO025 13.7 built out with housing. residential uses. Small site adjacent to Garngoch Industrial GO026 2.9 Consider for employment use if required. estate. Suitable for B2/B8 uses. Large linear site between Penllergaer and Isolated site removed from Garngoch Industrial Estate that PG012 35.6 Gorseinon. Will need significant access and would require infrastructure access improvements. utilities works to deliver the site. Brownfield site on northern fringe of city. Not considered suitable for employment as it is PD021 5.0 Consider for alternative uses. detached from other sites and relatively poorly connected to strategic routes. Large greenfield site to the north of Swansea Potential for some employment uses within urban LF015 142.5 fringe. Woodland is currently identified as a extension close to the M4. Green Wedge. Swansea North Site adjacent to Junction 47 of the M4. Largely woodland environment, with existing office Potential for B1 use, although detached from existing and PG004 6.5 block on site. Likely to be attractive to a range planned urban areas. of B1 and B8 users. Very large site (tip) adjacent to Felindre UDP Consider for as part of regionally significant employment MA004 13 employment allocations. Large electricity sub- site at Felindre. Monitor take up at Felindre and allocated station facilities on site. Although located close when appropriate.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 100 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Candidate Area Size (ha) Suitability Recommendation sites to M4 junction 46 it is considered to be expensive to deliver. Large site adjacent to Felindre UDP Consider for as part of regionally significant employment MA006 5.3 allocations. New access and servicing site at Felindre. Monitor take up at Felindre and allocated required to open up land for development. when appropriate.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 101 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
6.5 Neath Port Talbot
6.5.1 Neath Port Talbot Council has undertaken an assessment of its UDP employment allocations, existing sites and additional potential sites to identify sites that should be taken forward in the emerging LDP for the area.
6.5.2 The UDP allocations that have been reviewed by the Council are listed in Table 6.6. In total there are 20 sites, totalling 670 ha when they were allocated in 2001. The largest allocations include Baglan Bay (300 ha), Port Talbot Docks (140 ha), Kenfig Industrial Estate (37.4 ha), Jersey Marine (36.3 ha) and Junction 38 (27.2 ha).
6.5.3 The Council has recently reviewed land availability at each of these sites. The 2012 column in Table 6.6 shows that land take-up at some of these sites, including Melincryddan, Abernant Colliery, and Glanryhyd, has been limited over the last decade.
Table 6.6 Neath Port Talbot Potential Allocations (Hectares) UDP Reference Site 2001 2012 EC1/01 Baglan Bay Development 300 Masterplan EC1/02 Coed Darcy Urban Village 32 Masterplan EC1/03 Jersey Marine 36.3 18.5 EC1/04 Port Talbot Docks 140 Masterplan EC1/05 Neath Abbey Wharf 24 3 EC1/06 Glyneath Business Park 140 Masterplan EC1/07 Kenfig Industrial Estate 24 3 EC1/08 Neath Abbey Business Park 13.8 10.7 EC1/09 Rheola 37.4 6.4 EC1/10 Nantycafn 4.7 1.7 EC1/11 Vale of Neath Supplier Park 5.2 4.85 EC1/12 Former Blaenant Colliery 2.4 2.4 EC1/13 Baglan Industrial Park 6.5 6 EC1/14 Junction 38, Margam 27.2 TBC EC1/15 Croeserw Industrial Park 3.3 3.3 EC1/16 Glanrhyd, Pontadawe 6.6 6.6 EC1/17 Cwmgors Industrial Estate 0.8 0.8 EC1/18 Abernant Colliery Site 9.2 9.2 EC1/19 Melincryddan 11.2 11.2 EC1/20 Dewhirst Site 1.5 1.5 TOTAL 670 100
6.5.4 There are a number of sites which could be regarded as having strategic value. These are: Neath spatial area:
- Coed Darcy – Allocated for mixed use development comprising 4,000 dwellings and 30,000 sqm of B1 uses. St.Modwen confirmed that the land is readily available for employment uses and that they are confident they will deliver occupiers, although no specific market evidence was available to support this. Coed Darcy is to be developed as an urban village hence the provision of a mix of uses including employment and commercial opportunities which are instrumental to delivering the vision for the site.
Port Talbot spatial area:
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 102 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
- Baglan Bay (approximately 73.3 ha with masterplan) – a large PDL site close to the M4 that is suitable for a mix of B1/B2/B8 uses. Plots are readily available for design and build options. The proposed allocation lies adjacent to Baglan Energy Park which has seen substantial development over recent years and will be safeguarded for employments uses over the LDP period. The regeneration of Baglan Bay is a long-term development proposal which will be delivered over the LDP period and beyond.
- Port Talbot Docklands (23.2 ha) – the masterplan for the site indicates a potential mix of uses including bulky goods retail, business, community, storage and distribution, office and mixed leisure, recreation and office.
6.5.5 Neath Port Talbot Council is proposing to allocate these sites in the LDP as employment allocations. It is proposed that Baglan Bay will be allocated as a Strategic Employment Site, whilst Coed Darcy Urban Village and Port Talbot Docks will act as Strategic Regeneration Areas.
6.5.6 In addition to identifying sites for allocation the Council have identified a number of existing employment sites they are proposing should be safeguarded for employment uses over the LDP period (see table 6.8). A number of these sites have land available within the proposed site boundaries and appropriate infill development will thus be supported in these locations.
Table 6.7 Proposed Employment Sites to be Safeguarded Available Available units and floorspace Site Location land (ha) (gross) Alloy Industrial Estate, Pontardawe 0 1 unit / 93 sqm Baglan Energy Park 29.66 38 units / 10,403 sqm Baglan Industrial Estate, Port Talbot 4.25 2 units / 4865 sqm Croeserw Industrial Estate, Afan Valley 2.08 0 Crynant Business Park, Dulais Valley 0.35 3 units / 315 sqm Cwmgors Workshops and Industrial 0 0 Estate, Amman Valley Endeavour Close, Port Talbot 0.72 1 unit / 46 sqm Fabian Way 18.08 1 unit / 16,779 sqm Former Dewhirst Factory, Ystalyfera, 1.11 0 Swansea Valley Glyncorrwg Workshops, Afan Valley 0 0 Glynneath Village Workshops, Neath 0 1 unit / 43 sqm Valley Kenfig Industrial Estate, Port Talbot 2.56 8 units / 29162 sqm Llewellyn's Quay, Port Talbot 2.22 0 Lonlas Village Workshops, Neath 0 4 units / 2205 sqm Nant-y-cafn, Dulais Valley 0.27 0 Neath Abbey Business Park, Neath 0.23 6 units / 868 sqm Neath Abbey Wharf, Neath 0 0 Melincryddan CMB / Milland Road 0 0 Industrial Estate, Neath Vale of Neath Supplier Park, Neath 1.21 1 unit / 950 sqm Valley
6.5.7 Since we have not undertaken the sites assessments for Neath Port Talbot, it is difficult to make recommendations on the most appropriate allocation. However, we can provide some general comments based on what we now know about the Neath Port Talbot economy, both
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 103 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
now and in the future, and from a review of the sites assessments evidence carried out by Neath Port Talbot CBC.
6.5.8 It is clear from the assessment of demand and review of supply, set out in Chapter 5 and this chapter, that there is already a considerable oversupply of employment land allocated in the UDP within Neath Port Talbot. The Council have assessed the UDP allocations and identified a number of sites as potential allocations in the LDP which are considered to be deliverable.The Council have also undertaken an initial assessment of the proposed LDP sites (both new and safeguarded) to accommodate hazadous and polluting uses. They concluded that all sites would be unsuitable and therefore a new allocation for these types of use may be required.
6.5.9 Wherever necessary, we consider that the Council should seek to further reduce the quantum of surplus land that is being planned in order to not confuse the market or undermine future viability of suitable land development in Neath Port Talbot. This is now even more important given that attracting new businesses to Neath Port Talbot with public sector support is no longer a strong viable model. It is important therefore that the Council undertakes an exercise to prioritise the best sites in terms of commercial attractiveness and achievability.
6.5.10 Away from the M4 corridor there will be very limited demand for business space during the plan period. Adding further supply by allocating too much new land may only depress values further and undermine market confidence. It is recommended therefore that no allocations are made for employment uses in the Valleys. However, the emerging plan is seeking to invigorate the Valleys. So therefore the Council should develop a flexible policy approach towards granting employment uses in the Valleys which should also be positively supported and encouraged where they meet the strategic objectives of the Plan, are located in sustainable locations with access to public transport and priority given to previously developed sites in centres of population. This would require applications for employment uses to be considered on an individual basis, and likewise this would apply for alternative uses within the Valleys’ existing employment estates, although the latter should be scrutinised more closely through criteria driven policies.
6.6 Conclusion
6.6.1 In considering the allocation of employment land it is important that requirements should be focused on where demand is expected to be strongest, and also for supporting the delivery of planning objectives to delivering stronger, more resilient communities (by reducing unemployment), and by managing future development to ensure that communities have an appropriate balance of jobs (based on job densities).
6.6.2 Going forward, there is likely to be limited public (and private) funding for site development, so it will be important for both Swansea and Neath Port Talbot councils to identify clear priorities, favouring the strategic allocation of sites requiring the least intervention. This has been the aim of the assessments in this chapter, which has set out recommendations on site allocations for the emerging LDPs being prepared for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 104 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Swansea
6.6.3 With regard to Swansea site supply, it is clear that there are a large number of sites available and it is recommended that prioritisation is given to the delivery of more strategic sites at Swansea Vale, Swansea West Business Park, Swansea Docks/Port area and Felindre. These sites are considered the most attractive to the market. If these sites are either ruled out following more detailed survey work or do not come forward to meet known demand, then there are a number of candidate sites that are considered to be suitable alternatives.
6.6.4 Since the Swansea UDP was adopted, several employment sites have been developed, these should be safeguarded alongside existing employment sites (in-use). Specific supply recommendations include:
Existing employment sites (in-use) and available sites within existing estates should be safeguarded for employment purposes and a criteria their use set out to guide future planning applications;
Sites considered unsuitable or undeliverable within the plan period should be discounted from consideration for employment purposes and considered for alternative uses if possible; and
Strategic Sites and Regionals Significant Sites should be identified and allocated in the emerging LDP, if required to meet future demand (see Chapter 8).
Neath Port Talbot
6.6.5 Based on historical land take-up rates and existing and forecast demand it is clear that Neath Port Talbot has a significant supply of allocated employment land. It is therefore recommended that a number of sites currently allocated in the UDP, particularly those in the Valleys where there is little demand, may need to be reconsidered for employment purposes within the plan period.
6.6.6 It is recommended that the Council should retain strategic Employment Sites in the Baglan Bay/M4 corridor. This focus on a few sites will support successful delivery due to the greater market activity/interest in this area. Coed Darcy Urban Village and Port Talbot Docks should be allocated as Strategic Regeneration Areas. They should be self sustaining in employment terms and we would recommend that the Council seeks to ensure that they continue to provide employment as part of any regeneration proposals.
6.6.7 Overall allocation of Baglan Bay is likely to represent an oversupply compared to the LDP employment land requirement but this site is a strategic employment site that is well suited to meet the employment needs of the Neath Port Talbot within the beyond the plan period. It is not considered suitable for alternative use because this will undermine its market attractiveness for employment. The large scale of the site is not considered a weakness since infrastructure and marketing will be required for this sites irrespective of whether they are small or large. The focus on this site and other regernation areas will still avoid dispersing public sector resources and market focus and also safeguard well located future employment space that is less suited to alternative uses. It will also avoid the traditional
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 105 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
oversupply arguments because of the strategic long term nature of the site and is unsuitability for alterntive uses.
6.6.8 Baglan Bay represents an all or nothing option and in this context is considered an acceptable mismatch of supply and demand. However the division of sites in deliverable phases may help to better focus where delivery interventions that might need to be secured over the long term. Appendix 4 discusses issues relating to delivery options for employment sites, which might apply to these allocations. Specific supply recommendations include:
Existing employment sites (in-use) and available sites within existing estates should be safeguarded for employment purposes and a criteria their use set out to guide future planning applications; and
Strategic Sites such as Baglan Bay, should be identified and allocated in the emerging LDP, if required to meet future demand (see Chapter 8).
6.6.9 It should be noted that Neath Port Talbot Council have assessed employment supply and already discounted sites that officers consider as unsuitable or undeliverable within the plan period.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 106 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
7 Future Scenarios for Housing Growth
7.1 Introduction
7.1.1 Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Councils have already undertaken an analysis of the Welsh Government’s (WG) 2008 Population Projections and have produced various alternative projections for population and housing growth for their respective LDP periods.
7.1.2 The objective of Chapter 7 is not to replicate this analysis but to build on the work undertaken to consider the future population and therefore housing requirements of the economic scenarios set out in Chapter 5. In line with national policy, it is considered that an economic led strategy can positively plan for the future and draw together wider Council priorities.
7.1.3 The section seeks to separate the consideration of population projections from future policy decisions to support economic growth and illustrate the link between policy and development required to address priority economic issues.
7.2 Existing Population Structure
7.2.1 The key Documents included in the review of population and housing evidence includes:
City and County of Swansea Council (2012) Population and Household Projections: Planning for Population and Housing Growth;
City and County of Swansea Council (2012) Strategic Options – Consultation Draft; and
Neath Port Talbot Council (2011) Population and Housing Topic Paper.
Swansea
7.2.2 The population of Swansea was approximately 232,500 in 2009/1016. Between 2001/2 and 2009/10 the population rose by an estimated 8,900 persons from 223,500. The change in population can be solely attributed to the net increase of 9,100 persons through migration because there was minor net decrease through natural change (births and deaths).
16 City and Council of Swansea (2012) Population and Household Projections – DRAFT Background Paper
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 107 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Table 7.1 Mid-Year Estimates of Population Change for Swansea 2000/1 to 2009/10 Components of Change
Year Natural Population Births Deaths Net Migration Change 2001/2 2,300 2,600 -200 900 224,100 2002/3 2,300 2,700 -400 1,400 225,100 2003/4 2,500 2,600 -100 1,400 226,400 2004/5 2,400 2,600 -200 700 226,900 2005/6 2,500 2,500 0 800 227,700 2006/7 2,600 2,600 0 1,100 228,900 2007/8 2,700 2,400 300 800 230,100 2008/9 2,600 2,500 200 1,100 231,300 2009/10 2,600 2,400 200 900 232,500 NB: figures may not add because of rounding. Source: City and County of Swansea (2012) Population and Household Projections – DRAFT Background Paper.
7.2.3 The most significant changes in population between 2001 and 2010 have been in the following age ranges: Age 5-14: combined loss of 2,900 (-11%);
Age 20-29: total increase of 9,500 (+34%);
Age 30-39: loss of 4,500 (-15%);
Age 60-64: increase of 2,800 (+24%); and
Age 80+: increase of 1,400 (+13%).
7.2.4 Estimates prepared by the Welsh Government indicate that between 2001 and 2010 the number of households in Swansea increased from 94,499 (219,847 persons) to 102,585 (228,727 persons). Over this period the average household size has decreased from 2.33 to 2.23.
7.2.5 The falling average household size can be attributed to the significant rise of single-person households. Between 1991 and 2010 it is estimated that single-person households increased by approximately 10,200 (+43%) and now account for a third of all households. Of the other categories, two person households (0 children) increased by about 3,600 between 1991 and 2010 and now represent approximately 30% of all households. Over the same period 2 person households (1 adult, 1 child) increased by 95% from 4,300 in 1991 to 8,500 in 2010, whilst the number of households with 4 or more persons decreased by 21% from 21,400 to 16,900.
Neath Port Talbot
7.2.6 In 2010 there were approximately 141,300 people living in Neath Port Talbot. Between 2001 and 2010 the overall population of the area grew by 6,920 persons.
7.2.7 Analysis of population change by age groups shows that the population is ageing. The largest increase in population between 2001 and 2010 occurred in the 45 to 64 age group. Over the same period the number of pensionable age residents (65+) grew by 1,964. The only other age category showing growth over the period was the 16 to 24 age category
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 108 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
(+1,725 persons). The categories of 0 to 15 (-1,539) and 25 to 44 year olds (-1,264) experienced reductions in numbers between 2001 and 2010.
Table 7.2 Demographic Change in Neath Port Talbot, 2001-2010 Age Group 2001 2010 Change 2001-2010 Average Annual Change Children 0-15 26,339 24,800 -1,539 -171 Working Age 16-24 13,375 15,100 1,725 192 Working Age 25-44 35,964 34,700 -1,264 -140 Working Age 45-64 34,066 40,100 6,034 670 Pension Age 65+ 24,636 26,600 1,964 218 All Ages 134,380 141,300 6,920 769 Source: Neath Port Talbot Council (2011) Population and Housing Topic Paper and ONS 2010 Mid-Year Estimates.
7.2.8 Analysis of population change, undertaken by Neath Port Talbot Council, shows that rates of migration and natural change to have fluctuated between 2003/4 and 2007/8. The following trends have been observed:
Net internal migration has decreased as the number of migrants leaving the County Borough has remained higher than the number migrating in; and
Natural change has shown a small increase from 2007 as a result of increasing live births and decreasing death rates.
7.2.9 Average household sizes have decreased from 2.53 in 1991 to 2.15 in 2011. Looking forward, it is predicted that this trend will continue, with average household sizes reducing to 1.98 by 2026 and 1.94 by 2031. These household sizes will be below the average for Wales (2.07 in 2026).
7.3 Population and Household Projections
7.3.1 A key determinant of housing requirements and how these are likely to change in the future is the demographic profile of the population, on which projections are based. Therefore, the first step is to consider what the population and household projections indicate.
Welsh Government 2008 Based Population Projections
7.3.2 The LDP growth strategies for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot must use the Welsh Government’s (WG’s) 2008 based population projections as the starting point. However, it is important to remember that population projections are only future predictions based on past trends, and what actually happens can be influenced by future policy on housing and employment development within each Council area.
7.3.3 Future policy is likely to vary any forecast within the overall context of population change trends and therefore the crucial issue is to understand the scope of potential population variation, and how future policy choices may interact with any population and household change over time. Later in this chapter, we therefore consider the local employment growth influences on population change and housing requirements within both areas. First we consider the WG’s projections.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 109 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Swansea
7.3.4 The Welsh Government’s 2008 based population forecasts were published in 2010 and illustrate potential population growth. These show the likely increase in population in Swansea by 2025 Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, built from assumptions on natural changes (i.e. births and deaths) and migration (internal and international). Natural changes are a core part of the projection, and are rarely contentious input into the projections. Migration assumptions are often less robust and sometime subject to more criticism when considering projections.
7.3.5 The 2008-based projections are based on past trends, essentially using five years of fertility, mortality and migration data. Recent increases in migration rates for the years 2002 to 2008 have resulted in an overall increase in forecasted growth. A new method has changed the way international and internal (within UK) migration is calculated at local authority level, with the latest estimates incorporating new statistics on student moves and a new approach to modelling international migration data. It should be noted that the forecasts reflect the increase in migration and project this forward to illustrate the potential future population, which is shown in Table 7.3:
Table 7.3 Swansea WG’s 2008 Projections Swansea 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Change Children 39,900 41,200 44,100 47,100 48,400 48,700 8,800 Working age 141,000 143,900 146,300 148,600 152,000 156,700 15,700 Pension age 49,100 52,300 55,700 59,600 63,600 66,700 17,600 Total 230,100 237,400 246,100 255,300 26,4000 272,100 42,000 Source: Swansea Population and Housing Projections Paper 2011.
7.3.6 Table 7.3 illustrates that the overall population is forecast to grow by 42,000 people by 2033, with the largest area of growth in the pension age category. The working age population is also forecast to growth by 15,700 and subject to the level of economic activity will result in additional workers in the City. The child population is also forecast to increase by 8,800 people.
7.3.7 The Assembly’s population projection methodology has remained largely unchanged since the 2006 based projection, therefore the total increase between 2006 and 2008 based data is attributable to changes in the component data, specifically the upwards revision in migration from 896 to 957 net in-migrants per annum. And an increase in average number of births in the 2003 to 2008 period compared to 2001 to 2006.
Neath Port Talbot
7.3.8 The Welsh Government’s 2008 based population forecasts were published in 2010 and illustrate potential population growth. These show the likely increase in population in Neath Port Talbot by 2026. The population projections estimate the size of the future population and utilise assumptions on natural changes (i.e. births and deaths) and migration (internal and international). Assumptions on natural changes remain un-contentious in most instances due to the low variation in births and deaths each year. Migration assumptions are often less robust because they can vary significantly year on year and require careful consideration.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 110 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
7.3.9 The 2008-based projections are based on past trends from the previous 5 years and use information on fertility, mortality and migration to project the potential population increase. Migration rates for the years 2002 to 2008 have been relatively high and have resulted in an overall increase in forecasted growth.
7.3.10 The 2008 WG population projections show that from 2011-2026 the population growth is 8,812. The pensionable age population will increase by 9,943 persons. The number of children will rise by 1,092 persons. Conversely the population of working age will decrease by -2,223 residents. Hence, the majority of the population increase will be in the over 65s.
Table 7.4 Neath Port Talbot WG 2008 Population Scenario Neath Port Talbot 2011 2016 2021 2026 Change Children (0-15) 25,101 25,606 25,454 26,193 1,092 Working Age (16-64) 87,519 86,717 86,007 85,296 -2,223 Pension Age (65+) 26,606 29,952 32,921 36,549 9,943 Total 139,226 142,274 145,383 148,038 8,812
Swansea Population Projections
7.3.11 The City and County of Swansea Council have prepared a range of population projection scenarios for the period 2010 to 2025. Table 7.5 sets out the lower and upper end population growth scenarios and enables comparison of these against the Welsh Government projection.
7.3.12 The lower end growth scenario would result in the growth of the overall population of 8,600 by 2025 to 240,100. This equates to an average annual increase of 600, or 0.25% per annum.
7.3.13 The upper end growth scenario provides for growth of 20,400 persons to 253,000 by 2025. This represents an average growth rate per annum of 1,400 people, or 0.58% per annum. This growth rate is still less than the Welsh Government growth rate of 1,700 (+0.74%) per annum.
Table 7.5 Swansea Lower and Upper Population Growth Scenarios, 2010-2025 WG Lower end Middle Upper end Scenarios: projection scenario scenario scenario LDP start year: Base 232,800 231,500 231,700 232,600 population (2010) LDP end year: Projected 258,900 240,100 243,600 253,000 population (2025) Population change, 2010 to +26,000 +8,600 +11,900 +20,400 2025 % change, 2010 to 2025 +11.2% +3.7% +5.1% +8.8% Population change per annum +1,700 +600 +800 +1,400 % change per annum +0.74% +0.25% +0.34% +0.58% Source: City & County of Swansea (2012) Population and Household Projections – DRAFT Background Paper.
7.3.14 Table 7.5 illustrates that population scenarios vary between 8,600 and 26,000 people by 2025. Migration rates are the most significant component of this population change. Table 7.6 sets out ONS migration estimates to illustrate the wide variation.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 111 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Table 7.6: Components of Change: Migration to and from Swansea, 1998-2010 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year -99 -00 -01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 -09 -10 In 7180 7610 7680 8150 8560 9060 8690 8650 9060 9040 9090 9690 Out 7470 7310 7460 7960 7750 8040 8250 8260 8930 9010 9010 9060 Net Internal -290 300 220 190 810 1020 440 400 130 30 80 630 Migration In n/a n/a n/a 1600 1630 1210 1500 1260 2090 1950 2080 1890 Out n/a n/a n/a 790 1020 930 1230 900 1080 1100 1080 1580 Net International n/a n/a n/a 810 600 280 270 360 1010 850 1010 320 Migration* Total - - - 1000 1410 1300 710 760 1140 880 1090 950 Source: ONS Migration estimates, 1998-2010.
7.3.15 The following trends have been observed:
Net internal migration has fluctuated between -290 and 1,020 between 1999 and 2010. It averaged 330+ over the 12 year period;
Net international migration has varied from 270 to 1,010 over the 2001 to 2010 period. It averaged 610+ over the 9 year period; and
Total net migration averaged 1,020 per annum with highs of 1,410 and lows of 710.
7.3.16 The migration trend data illustrates that the largest component of population change can have a significant effect on population change. Past trends illustrate migration rates could be both lower and higher than the WG projection and the Council should consider the high and low migrations trends as the top and bottom of the potential population range. The key consideration for Swansea is to decide how much of this potential population growth is required to support economic growth. The employment led scenario will provide the Council with an employment led population forecast, based on what is required to fulfil their economic potential and therefore help to identify the optimum point within the potential population forecasts identified.
7.3.17 The 2008 WG household projections suggest that average household size will continue to decline with a further decrease in Swansea’s average household size to 2.13 persons by 2025.
Neath Port Talbot CBC Population Projections
7.3.18 Neath Port Talbot Council has modelled a range of different population growth scenarios. The preferred scenario, referred to as ‘moderate growth’, results in an overall increase of 2,369 persons between 2011 and 2026 to 140,365. The main increase will be amongst pension age residents (+5,506 people). In contrast the number of working age adults (16 to 64 year olds) is predicted to decrease by 4,603 to 82,191 whilst 0 to 15 year olds will increase by 1,466.
7.3.19 This growth scenario is less than the Welsh Government 2008 growth projection, which shows Neath Port Talbot increasing from 139,266 in 2011 to 148,038 in 2026 (+8,772). This
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 112 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
represents a population growth rate of 585 per annum. The Neath Port Talbot Population and Housing Topic Paper presents extensive analysis on variants to the population forecasts and component base data on internal and international migration. The topic paper presents seven growth strategies. Table 7.7 presents data from the LDP pre deposit plan and illustrates the growth scenarios.
Table 7.7 Neath Port Talbot Population projections 2011 to 2026 NPT Moderate High Medium Declining High WG 2008 Static Growth Growth Growth Population Decline Scenario Base population 139,266 137,996 138,552 138,150 137,425 137,259 136,959 (2011) Projected population 148,038 140,365 145,716 141,843 137,425 135,759 133,959 (2026) Population change, +8,772 +2,369 +7,163 +3,693 0 -1,500 -3,000 2011 to 2026 % change, 2011 to +6.3% +1.7% +5.2% +2.6% 0.0% -1.1% -2.2% 2026 Pop change +585 +158 +478 +246 0 -100 -200 per annum % change +0.41% +0.11% +0.34% +0.17% 0.00% -0.07% -0.15% per annum Source: Neath Port Talbot Council (2011) Population and Housing Topic Paper; PBA.
7.3.20 Table 7.7 shows that population scenarios vary from +8,772 and -3,000. Importantly for the employment assessment, working age population is forecast to fall under all the growth strategy options. Moderate Growth (-2,731), Medium Growth (-2,138) and High Growth (- 231) all vary in the level of decrease, but interestingly the rate of decrease for the High growth and Medium growth options are both less than the WG’s 2008 forecast (-2,231).
7.3.21 Neath Port Talbot CBC’s own analysis of population change shows that rates of migration and natural change fluctuated between 2003/4 and 2007/8. Table 7.8 below shows the Migration trends between 1991 and 2008.
7.3.22 The following trends have been observed:
Total net migration has fluctuated between -600 and 1,400 between 1991 and 2008. It averaged 150+ over the 17 year period; and
Total net migration increased between 1999/2000 to 2002/3 and then decreased in 2003/4 before increasing again to 2005/6 when it declined again.
7.3.23 The migration trend data illustrates that the largest component of population change is volatile and whilst WG’s 2008 projections suggest high population growth based on total migration rates of 500+. Past trends illustrate that this could be both lower and higher. It is considered that the Council’s existing very high growth and high decline household projections represent the top and bottom of the potential population range as they reflect the
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 113 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
extremes of past migration trends, it is considered that an employment led scenario will provide the Council with the housing to support their objectives, because it will be based on what is required to fulfil their economic potential.
Table 7.8: Neath Port Talbot Annual Trends in Net Migration, from 1991 to 2008 Net Annual Year Migration 1991-1992 -300 1992-1993 -200 1993-1994 700+ 1994-1995 -600 1995-1996 -200 1996-1997 -300 1997-1998 -400 1998-1999 -400 1999-2000 (no data) 2000-2001 -100 2001-2002 700+ 2002-2003 1400+ 2003-2004 100+ 2004-2005 300+ 2005-2006 400+ 2006-2007 300+ 2007-2008 200+
7.3.24 The average household size for Neath Port Talbot in 2008 is 2.21. By 2026 the average household size in Neath Port Talbot is expected to reduce to 1.98. This will be used for the basis of the employment to housing considerations below.
7.4 Population and Housing Scenario
7.4.1 Population projections are a key driver in EE’s base employment forecasts discussed in Chapter 5. These are used by EE to help determine hours worked in a location by industry, which feed into productivity and sector output, and then employment in all its forms. Generally speaking, an extra population attracts extra jobs but the forecasts do not generate simultaneous estimations of population and jobs, so that extra jobs attract extra population through migration. Rather, population levels stay as per ONS.
7.4.2 In planning for housing it is important to consider the impact of the projected population on housing growth to support the jobs presented under our two growth scenarios (EE (adj) and EE (adj+)), which identified higher growth than under the EE base case. To under provide or over provide is likely to result in unsustainable travel flow because economically active residents have to travel further to find work, or working age residents from outside the county borough have to commute in. Most importantly, in the case of the latter, where there is an under provision of local labour, there is a greater risks that the jobs are created through business investment, with businesses preferring to relocate elsewhere. For these reasons it is important to consider the impact of jobs growth and labour supply on the commuting
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 114 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
patterns in order to identify a suitable supply of housing to support the planned jobs growth within the local area. This requires consideration to the level of the commuting flows for supporting these jobs, alongside utilising the existing population through changing local economic activity.
7.4.3 With the employment growth scenario, employment grows faster which consequently is likely to require an increase in dwellings for increasing the number of local resident working age population (i.e., labour force). To assess the need for dwellings to support this growth the starting point are the employment projections in EE’s model, which has been informed by the ONS 2008-based projections (with re-classification of working age category to reflect future changes in the retirement age) which was also utilised by the Welsh Government to inform the WG 2008-based population projections.
Employment Led Growth Option
7.4.4 In order to support economic growth, a comparable level of homes will need to be provided to support population growth, or more specifically the growth of economically active residents. For instance, if economic growth of 100 jobs per annum was pursued then 100 economically active people will be required to support these jobs and these new people would generally require new accommodation.
7.4.5 An output of the study is to provide evidence on the level of housing required to support economic growth and assist the Council’s to determine the level of housing/population growth, they should strive to deliver from the range of potential growth options they have identified in the LDP evidence to date. Growth options for Neath Port Talbot and Swansea set out above illustrate that based on past trends a range of potential population options could be achieved. The following employment led option seeks to illustrate the level of population/housing required to deliver the economic potential identified in Chapter 5.
7.4.6 It should be noted that the employment led growth option is commuting neutral. At this stage consideration has not been given to existing commuting patterns and assumes that job growth will need to be supported by consummate growth in economically active workers, whether they are residents or commuters from adjacent authorities. Table 7.9 below sets out the baseline data for the consideration of housing requirements for each Local authority:
7.4.7 The baseline information for population, households and economically active residents has come from the WG 2008 based population and Household projections. It is considered the most appropriate starting point to conform to the Welsh Governments view that the 2008 based population projections used be used as the starting point for the consideration of housing requirements. Housing requirements associated with employment growth scenarios EE (adj) and EE (adj+) are set out in the Tables 7.10 and 7.11.
Table 7.9: Baseline information Swansea 2010 Neath Port Talbot 2011 a. economically active 2010/2011 103,400 59,775 b. population 2010/2011 228,700 139,266 c. households 2010/2011 102,600 64,241
Source: Welsh Government 2008 Population and Houshold Projections
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 115 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Table 7.10: Swansea Employment Led Growth Option Swansea to 2025 EE Adj EE Adj+ Data and Assumptions Scenario: Scenario: (6,127 jobs) (14,699 jobs) d. Net gain of jobs (minus National rule of thumb for double 5% for double jobbing 5,821 13,964 jobbing allowance) Calculation based on a reduction e. Net decrease in of unemployment from 9.7% unemployment 2010 – -1,745 -1,745 reduced to the long term Welsh 2025 average 6.5% Calculation based on f. Economically active economically active population 2025/2026 107,476 115,619 2011 plus job growth to 2026 (f = a + d + e) minus change in unemployment by 2026 Calculation based on increasing g. Working age population the ratio of economically active to 2025 147,227 158,382 working age population to the long (g = f x 1.37) term Welsh average of 73% Calculation based on ratio of h. Total population 2025 working age population to Total 240,961 259,218 (h = g x 1.64) population at 2026 (WG 2008 population projections - 61.1%) i. Private household Calculation based on 2.2% non- population 2025 235,659 253,515 household population in Census (i = h - 2.2%) 2011 (Welsh Average) j. Total number of Calculation based on reduction in households 2025 average household size of 2.13 by 110,638 119,021 (j = i ÷ 2.13 persons per 2025 (WG 2008 household household) projection) Net additional Households k. Number of additional between 2011 and 2026 homes 2025 8,038 16,421 assuming a 1:1 ratio of (k = j – c) households to homes l. Population change 2010 - Calculation of indicative 2025 12,261 30,518 population growth (l = i - b)
Table 7.11:Neath Port Talbot Employment Led Growth Option Neath Port Talbot to 2026 EE Adj EE Adj+ Assumptions Scenario: Scenario: (1,789 jobs) (3,850 jobs) d. Net gain of jobs (minus National rule of thumb for double 5% for double jobbing 1,700 3,658 jobbing allowance) Calculation based on a reduction e. Net decrease in of unemployment from 9.7% unemployment 2011 – -1,913 -1,913 reduced to the long term Welsh 2026 average 6.5% Calculation based on economically active population f. Economically active 2026 59,562 61,520 2011 plus job growth to 2026 (f = a + d + e) minus change in unemployment by 2026 g. Working age population Calculation based on increasing 81,592 84,274 2026 the ratio of economically active to
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 116 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
(g = f x 1.37) working age population to the long term Welsh average of 73% Calculation based on ratio of working age population to Total h. Total population 2026 141,653 146,309 population at 2026 in WG 2008 (h = g x 1.74) population projections, (57.5% by 2026) i. Private household Calculation based on 2.2% non- population 2026 138,537 143,091 household population in Census (i = h - 2.2%) 2011 (Welsh Average) j. Total number of Calculation based on reduction in households 2026 average household size of 1.98 by 69,968 72,268 (j = i ÷ 1.98 persons per 2026 (WG 2008 household household) projection) Net additional Households k. Number of additional between 2011 and 2026 homes 2026 5,727 8,027 assuming a 1:1 ratio of (k = j – c) households to homes l. Population change 2011 - Calculation of indicative 2,387 7,043 2026 population growth
7.4.8 Table 7.10 and 7.11 have used a series of assumptions to calculate the total population and therefore housing requirements to support growth. The basis of the calculation is the acknowledgement that only a percentage of the population is likely to be economically active and subsequently the total population including residents that are economically inactive must grow proportionally to support economic growth (e.g. facilitate growth in economically active residents). To do this Tables 7.10 and 7.11 have used ratios of economically active to working age population and working age to total population. For example, in Neath Port Talbot it identifies that 1.37 working age residents are needed to ensure that 1 economically active resident is available to fill the jobs. This ratio is based on improving the economic activity rate to the Welsh long-run average. The study has used the WG 2008 based population projection to inform the ratio of working age population to total population. WG has projected that the population aged under 16 and over 65 will increase by 2026 and reduce the working age population to 57.5%. The result is that 1.74 people (total population) will be required to ensure 1 working age resident lives in the County Borough. The economic led scenario has used the same assumption as the WG 2008 based population projection to ensure that economic growth is not constrained by projected demographic changes.
7.4.9 The economic led scenarios assume the unemployment rates will reduce to the long term Welsh average of 6.5% over the period 2004 to 2011. It is considered that this is a reasonable assumption given the respective pre-recession unemployment rates of under 6% for both Swansea and Neath Port Talbot. In addition it has been assumed that economic activity rates can be improved across both authorities. The Welsh long term average of 73% over 2004 to 2011 has been used, which represents an increase in existing economic activity in both authorities and will require targeted interventions to support residents into work. Whilst considered ambitious Peter Brett Associates recommend that this is an achievable target, but suggest that both Council’s should monitor economy activity rates, job growth and migration rates in their Annual Monitoring Report (AMR) as part of a plan monitor and manage approach. In this way they can ensure that sufficient housing is provided over the long term to support economic growth.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 117 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
7.4.10 It is important to consider that the economic led scenario is not an alternative to the population projections set out in the Councils respective housing topic papers. The economic led scenario approaches the need for housing from a completely different direction. Population and household projections use assumptions on natural change, migration and household formation to identify the potential population and subsequent household demand. The economic led scenario uses job growth and projected economic activity rates to identify the required working age population to support jobs. This different approach enables the Council’s to identify the level of housing required to meet its economic objectives within the population projection framework established in the WG 2008 population projections. The study has included economic assumptions based on both Council’s planned interventions to reduce unemployment and increase the economic activity rate. This combined with the overall level of economic growth potential identified in the study leads to a deviation in the population projections and subsequent housing demand set out in the WG 2008 projections.
7.4.11 The study identifies that the economy has finite growth potential within the plan period and the economic led scenario reduces the level of housing required consummately to ensure sufficient population is provided to support this growth. The overall level of population and household growth is lower than the WG 2008 projections because it is based on employment growth and increased economic activity, as opposed to natural change and migration trends. The economic led scenario reflects the demographic changes set out in the WG 2008 household projections, because it factors in the projected decline in residents of working age population and the reduction in average household size..
Comparisons with the Population and Household Projections
7.4.12 Looking back at the demographic projections for each authority, these illustrate that the population scenarios for each authority vary between: Swansea – potential population increase: 8,600 to 26,000; and
Neath Port Talbot – potential population increase: -2,800 to 8,572.
7.4.13 The employment growth scenarios (EE adj) and (EE adj+) indicate a requirement of between 8,038 to 16,421 dwellings for Swansea. This could support a population range of 12,261 to 30,518. Clearly the top of this range is higher than the potential population increase identified in the growth options.
7.4.14 For Neath Port Talbot employment growth scenarios (EE adj) and (EE adj+) indicates a housing requirement of 5,727 to 8,027. The population increase equates to 2,387 to 7,043. Both of these figures are within the potential population range identified by the population scenarios produced by the Council.
The Consideration of Commuting Patterns
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 118 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
7.4.15 It will be important for the Council’s to consider existing commuting patterns and how they can or may attempt to influence commuting patterns through the LDP. Table 7.12 and 7.13 below sets a labour market balance summary for the EE (adj+) scenario.
Table 7.12 Swansea Labour Market Balance Summary 2010 2025 Change Housing 16,421 Population 240,961 259,218 18,257 Working Age Population 141,770 158,382 16,612 No of Employed Residents* 85,900 108,104 22,204 No of Jobs 123,255 137,954 14,699 No of Jobs (excl: double jobbing)** 117,092 131,056 13,964 Net In-Commuting Balance*** -31,192 -23,281 7,911 *Calculated based on economically active proportion (73%) of WAP minus the unemployed (6.1%). **Double jobbing is assumed to be 5% of all job ***Derived from no. of employed residents minus no. of jobs (excl: double jobbing) Source: PBA research
7.4.16 With the EE (adj+) employment growth scenario and the policy objective of closing the gap with the Wales average (i.e. economic activity and unemployment rates), then the changes in demographic profile to reflect a greater resident labour force and forecast growth in jobs reduces net in-commuting in Swansea by 13,600 by the end of the plan period, 2025. As shown in Table 7.12, this reduces the balance of jobs to working residents from 32,200 in 2011 to 23,300 in 2025.
7.4.17 The reason for this is because the local labour market is projected to grow more strongly than the jobs projected under EE (adj+). The labour market is buoyed by the growth in working age residents in Swansea, reflecting Swansea’s current demographic and its attraction to young migrants. It also includes the policy assumptions for an improved economic activity rate and a lower unemployment rate, with both naturally increasing the resident labour force.
7.4.18 The outcome from the projected growth of 14,700 jobs and 16,400 housing by the end of the plan period might be a more environmentally sustainable balance, because the lower requirement for in-commuters should reduce the average distance that workers in Swansea need to travel. Most importantly, the larger local labour market will be more attractive to business investment.
Table 7.13 Neath Port Talbot Labour Market Balance Summary 2011 2026 Change Housing 8,027 Population 139,266 146,309 7,043 Working Age Population 87,519 84,274 -3,245 No of Employed Residents* 54,467 57,521 3,054 No of Jobs 50,137 53,983 3,846 No of Jobs (excl: double jobbing)** 47,630 51,284 3,654 Net Out-Commuting Balance*** 6,837 6,109 -728 *Calculated based on economically active proportion (73%) of WAP minus the unemployed (6.1%). **Double jobbing is assumed to be 5% of all job ***Derived from no. of employed residents minus no. of jobs (excl: double jobbing) Source: PBA research
7.4.19 With the EE (adj+) employment growth scenario and the policy objective of closing the gap with the Wales average (i.e. economic activity and unemployment rates), then the changes
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 119 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
in demographic profile and forecast growth in jobs reduces net out-commuting in Neath Port Talbot by over 700. As shown in Table 7.13, this reduces the net outflow of working resident from 6,837 in 2011 to 6,109 in 2026.
7.4.20 This is because the EE (adj+) projects more growth in jobs than the projected growth in working residents. The latter reflects a loss of working age residents under the ageing population, but with improvements in economic activity and lower unemployment there will be a net growth in working residents but not to the extent of growing more than the projected change is in jobs.
7.4.21 The outcome from the projected housing and job growth is for the availability and choice of jobs for working residents to increase, which might have a further improvement for increasing self-containment17 in Neath Port Talbot, and therefore is likely to be more sustainable because residents might be able to travel shorter distances to work.
7.5 Conclusion
7.5.1 Overall the indicative housing requirement for both authorities is:
Swansea – potential dwelling requirement: 8,038 to 16,421; and
Neath Port Talbot – potential dwelling requirement: 5,727 to 8,027.
7.5.2 The higher figures for both Local authorities reflect the more ambitious employment growth scenarios (EE adj+).
7.5.3 Interventions to reduce unemployment or increase economic activity rates beyond the assumptions will have implications for the scale of housing required to support growth. It should be noted that logic suggests that increased economically active people/reduced unemployment will result in a reduction in the need for population growth through migration to support economic growth. A note of caution on this approach is the implication of unsuccessful interventions to reduce unemployment or increase economic activity, namely to constrain labour supply and undermine the economic potential of the sub region.
7.5.4 A further policy consideration for both Council’s, is the consideration of labour supply and its relationship with commuting patterns. The study has illustrated that population projections predict that growth in working age population will be low compared to older/retired population and children. The ambition for economic growth and regeneration needs to be tempered by the available labour supply and potentially the redistribution of existing labour.
Swansea
7.5.5 Planning policy mechanisms cannot guarantee changes in commuting patterns, but the simple provision of more dwellings relative to jobs in Swansea has the potential to reduce in- commuting, which may offer a more environmentally sustainable position at the end of the
17 This is fairly simplistic because increasing self-containment will depend on a multitude of factors, including the type of jobs and matches to local skills available within the County. But data availability restricts further analysis within the scope of this review.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 120 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
plan period. But this would also be dependent on the reduction of jobs relative to working residents impacting proportionally more on in-commuters rather than local residents.
Neath Port Talbot
7.5.6 Like in Swansea, planning policy mechanisms cannot guarantee changes in commuting patterns, but the simple provision of additional quantum’s of employment land/floorspace relative to dwelling provision is an option for Neath Port Talbot to attempt to reduce net out commuting by supporting the market to deliver employment faster than housing. But this is also dependent on businesses taking up this additional space.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 121 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
8 Conclusions and Recommendations
8.1 Introduction
8.1.1 At the end of this report, it is now possible to review and summarise the study findings and offer recommendations in relation to the requirements set out in the study brief (these are summarised in Chapter 1). We cover each in turn.
8.2 Conclusions
Swansea
8.2.1 Swansea’s historical past has been in industrial development. But it is now dominated by office type employment, with a strong representation of public sector employment. The current economic climate with a continued decline in public sector budget puts Swansea at risk of underperforming in the future. The implications of this will also carry wider than Swansea because its economy is also acting as an economic hub for economically active residents beyond its own boundaries, including many working residents in Neath Port Talbot.
8.2.2 A key issue for Swansea over the coming years will be how to diversify within its economic base, moving away from an economy which has been reliant on manufacturing and public sector employment, to generating investment in other higher value sectors, which are already well represented in the City economy. Localised skill improvements in moving towards a bigger knowledge economy are required. So too is the need to support a balance of different job types to maximise prosperous opportunities for all residents.
8.2.3 The Swansea commercial property market has traditionally been dominated by industrial premises. Over the last decade, however, the city has experienced a growth in sectors requiring office space, which has led to a diminishing stock of industrial space and increasing office floorspace, mostly provided at flagship developments like SA1 at the Waterfront.
8.2.4 There is still some demand for industrial space, but this is mostly from churn within existing businesses working from obsolete premises rather than looking for sites for expansion. In which case, this movement will require available sites or new modern space to be readily available, but not any additional quantum of space to be added to existing stock.
8.2.5 Employment forecasts project the number of jobs in Swansea to grow by an additional 6,100 to 14,700 over the plan period from 2010 to 2025. The upper end figure (referred to in Chapter 5 as the employment growth scenario EE(adj+)) include a nominal adjustment of +20% point beyond the former macro trend based projections to account for specific sectors which have been identified with having local growth drivers. Most of these jobs are in the professional and services sectors covering education, health and residential care sectors.
8.2.6 To accommodate these jobs, there is need for a significant net additional 84,000 sqm of office space over the LDP planning period from 2010 to 2025. The qualitative requirements indicate a preference for more modern, Grade A type space, particularly for attracting new investment through speculative developments which have occurred in Swansea and elsewhere in South Wales over recent years. In seeking to grow local enterprise, particularly
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 122 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
through the universities, there is also a requirement for smaller space for start-ups and move on space for emerging successful enterprises.
8.2.7 The employment forecasts reveal little demand for new industrial space, but some demand for additional warehousing. But because the Regional Waste Plan (RWP) is placing a significant requirement for accommodating waste uses, totalling up to 29 ha, and since this could be accommodated on existing industrial land, this reverts the negative requirement for industrial/warehousing land to a net increase of 30.4 ha. The sites specifically for meeting recyclable and reusable waste should have good strategic and local access, but given the nature of these forms of developments, they should be accommodated some distance from neighbouring residential and high quality employment uses.
8.2.8 In total, to meet its projected employment growth requirements over the plan period, it is estimated that Swansea would need:
51.3 ha of employment (B-space) land, including:
- 84,000 sqm (equivalent to 21 ha) of office space; and
- 30.4 ha of industrial/warehousing land.
8.2.9 Importantly, the land requirements set out above reflect only the quantified net changes based on net new jobs over the plan period. That is, they do not account for what might be required to meet gross demand for space irrespective of employment change, for example through natural churn whereby businesses are seeking new space to replace old/obsolete stock. Another example relates to the businesses/investors seeking a certain type or quality of space which cannot always be accommodated because the large portfolio of vacant office and industrial floorspace is mostly low grade and not suitable for higher quality users. To support future economic growth aspirations, it is essential that enough sites are available with appropriate infrastructure and servicing to meet a period of at least three years gross demand, and that funding opportunities are identified to continue to bring forward a suitable margin of appropriate and available sites over the life of the plan for meeting this requirement. This should not change the quantity of recommended new employment space in paragraph 8.2.8, but should influence the quality of the sites to be considered appropriate for employment uses.
8.2.10 Jobs in non B-space uses (like in retail and health services) account for the vast majority of future growth in jobs, and there are already some significant plans for accommodating these uses through retail planning in the City Centre, new education facilities and a number of sui- generis uses. Some new jobs in the future will be accommodated by space which is being freed up with the increasing growth in homeworking.
Neath Port Talbot
8.2.11 Unlike most other South Wales economies, the Neath Port Talbot economy remains manufacturing based, dominated by the Port Talbot TaTa Steelworks. While manufacturing is generally in decline, the latter is seeking to invest more in production at the Port Talbot plant, and workers in the County Borough and elsewhere are benefitting from the slightly better earnings because of these jobs relative to other local and neighbouring jobs.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 123 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
8.2.12 The dominance and past decline of manufacturing and mining in Neath Port Talbot has left a legacy of relatively low economic activity and high levels of unemployment among Neath Port Talbot’s working age residents, which is creating a double whammy for local prosperity. This indicates that there is a relatively large untapped labour force, and therefore the objective should be to move those economic inactive residents who are able to work, along with the unemployed, into employment. However, current skill levels are below average among working age residents, which will require improving.
8.2.13 There are some signs in the newer generation of school leavers that residents are achieving higher standards relative to the older generation and other areas across Wales. With better skills there are likely to be shifts in the economy to higher knowledge based sectors. Further potential drivers of growth are coming in the form of new a Swansea University campus locating in the borough, employment sites at Baglan Bay, and the Energy Park, plus improved access to employment sites, with the imminent completion of the PDR.
8.2.14 In line with the trend in jobs, the Neath Port Talbot commercial property market has traditionally been dominated by industrial premises. In contrast to Swansea, and Wales as a whole, the quantum of industrial and warehousing stock in the area has actually risen over the last decade. But in recent years the economic downturn has resulted in significant quantum of industrial space becoming vacant. Much of this space is large and is generally considered to be unsuitable for modern industrial premises.
8.2.15 There has been some demand for Grade A small and medium sized premises in locations with good access to the M4 like Baglan Energy Park. In addition, Council owned workshops in the Valleys have been taken up quickly. But generally, there has been very little office development due to lack of effective demand, i.e. businesses want better space but there is not enough to warrant speculative development for this type of space.
8.2.16 The take-up of space at Baglan Innovation Centre at Baglan Energy Park provides encouragement that public sector intervention the higher value knowledge based jobs can be supported in the area, although it will take some time before the economy can mould into a high value one. Without public sector intervention it is likely that private sector development will be limited to design and build options to suit the requirements of local businesses requiring new space in specific locations.
8.2.17 Employment forecasts project the number of jobs in Neath Port Talbot to grow by an additional 1,800 to 3,850 over the plan period 2011 to 2026. The upper end figure (referred to in Chapter 5 as EE(adj+)) include a nominal adjustment of +20% point beyond the former macro trend based projections to account for specific sectors which have been identified with having local growth drivers. Most of these additional jobs are shared across manufacturing and the profession/administrative services, plus health and residential care sectors.
8.2.18 By converting these jobs into net demand for space, we have identified some marginal positive requirements for additional office space and for industrial/warehousing space. This is based on the employment growth scenario EE (adj+) in Chapter 5. The base case (EE (adj)) scenario identified almost no net additional space would be required.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 124 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
8.2.19 The Regional Waste Plan has also identified a requirement allocation of up to 11.4 ha of land for waste. This could be accommodated on existing industrial land, which increases the requirement for industrial/warehousing land to 17 ha. With space being required to accommodate expansion in recyclable waste management and re-use, there is a need for sites with good strategic and local access, but given the nature of these forms of developments, new waste facilities should be accommodated some distance from neighbouring residential and high quality employment uses.
8.2.20 In total, to meet its projected employment growth scenario requirements over the plan period, it is estimated that Neath Port Talbot would need:
20 ha of employment (B-space) land, including:
- 12,000 sqm (equivalent to 3 ha) of office space; and
- 17 ha of industrial/warehousing land.
8.2.21 Importantly, the land requirements set out above reflect only net changes based on net new jobs over the plan period. That is, they do not account for what might be required to meet gross demand for space through natural churn.
8.2.22 Jobs in non B-space uses (like in retail, health service) account for the vast majority of future growth, most likely through sui-generis uses and town centre services like education and health. Also, some jobs will be supported through increasing shifts towards homeworking.
8.3 Recommendations
Distribution of Employment Land in Swansea
Safeguarded Sites
8.3.1 During the course of this study a total of 39 UDP allocations, plus additional candidate sites, were assessed for employment potential within Swansea over the plan period in the emerging Local Development Plan. Since the total quantified requirement for additional net space is significantly less than the supply of land in existing UDP allocations, it is important to focus on the merit of existing sites in particular to meet natural churn, whereby old/obsolete stock is replaced by new irrespective of employment change (which explains the net additional requirement).
8.3.2 Most of the existing employment areas are fit for purpose now and in the future. Those that are no longer fit should be retained for employment while they still have active employment uses on them. This is because existing employment land and premises make an important contribution and are a valuable resource to the Swansea economy for meeting local churn generated by the surrounding employment uses. We therefore recommend that they should be protected where they are in active employment uses.
8.3.3 There is also a total of 35.3 ha of available and potentially developable land within these estates, which could be delivered or released through a flexible approach to employment provision. These sites are listed in Table 6.3 in Chapter 6:
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 125 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
8.3.4 The approach is to safeguard these sites as part of the wider existing employment sites where they are located, and letting the market deliver them within the constraints of Local Development Plan policy on employment land. For this reason, strategic allocation is not necessary.
Potential Future Allocations
8.3.5 One site has been identified as suitable new employment allocations because it is adjacent to an existing employment estate and has potential for delivering new investment and enhancing the expansion of existing businesses.
8.3.6 The site, listed in Table 6.3 in Chapter 6, is Swansea Port Area. This site, comprising 22.9 ha, has the potential for supporting 75% of the net additional requirement for industrial/warehousing land over the plan period identified in Chapter 5. The remaining outstanding allocation for industrial/warehousing uses therefore would be some 7.4 ha.
8.3.7 The land at Swansea Port should initially be allocated to meet requirements associated with storage and distribution. However, because of its potential for linkages with the Swansea second campus, should it go ahead, this land use allocation should be kept under review because a different use to support the potential for business spin outs from the campus might be more appropriate. If this reclassification occurs, then further (replacement) allocations for industrial/warehousing uses might be necessary, which should be assessed through an update to this study.
8.3.8 A further 70,000 sqm of potential new office floorspace located in the City Centre is also recommended for future office uses over the plan period. This area based allocation would cover some 83% of the projected floorspace requirement (84,000 sqm), but would be equivalent to only around 3.4 ha of land because of the higher densities of floorspace to land in the City Centre. After discounting 83% of the 21 ha of net additional land allocations for office uses identified in Chapter 5, the remaining allocation for office uses would only need to be for some 3.5 ha.
8.3.9 It is expected that the remaining 10.9 ha (7.5 ha B2/B8, and 3.5 ha B1) will be accommodated within the proposed safeguarded employment sites, or alternatively within the space available at Felindre subject to meeting the certain policy criteria which we consider next.
Felindre - a ‘tailored’ policy
8.3.10 One of Swansea Council’s objectives is to attract inward investment and improve the range and quality of local employment opportunities, possibly through locating a strategic business park in the County. Felindre has been identified as a specific site with scope for attracting strategic sub-regional investment for future employment uses.
8.3.11 The Council is delivering serviced plots at Felindre and it is recommended that Felindre is identified as a strategic sub-regional employment site specifically for inward investment opportunities.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 126 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
8.3.12 But to avoid any impact on the vision for the City Centre, and the regeneration of the Swansea Waterfront and other major established employment sites, Felindre should be restricted to accommodating only inward investment or emerging businesses requirements.
8.3.13 It is anticipated that the take-up of land for employment uses at the Felindre site could be slow in the short to medium term and therefore the Council should follow a plan, manage and monitor approach in making employment land available to release the full potential, along with a flexible approach to the use of land. It is recommended therefore that policy criteria are established to guide the consideration of land uses. Priority order for employment uses could include:
Inward Investment;
Alternative land uses including waste; and
General employment uses.
Sites for Release from Employment Designation
8.3.14 A total of 62.3 ha of land is considered either unsuitable or undeliverable for employment use at this time. These sites are listed in nTable 6.2 i Chapter 6. The delivery of these sites is hindered by a range of issues, including flooding, access and potential contamination that make delivery unviable in the short to medium term without significant public sector intervention. It is recommended that none of these sites be considered for employment land allocation in the short term.
Employment Space in Rural Areas
8.3.15 The quantitative balance and allocation of employment sites discussed above is without the addition of any new rural sites; that is the whole new portfolio should be in urban sites. This is because from experience, trying to proactively pepper pot villages with new allocations is difficult. Also, theoretically, there are problems with a significant provision of B-space in rural areas in that they could undermine the growth of employment in the City. If rural businesses employ many workers, they will have to cast their recruitment search widely, which generate negative impacts on the environment through longer distance commutes.
8.3.16 Although little is really known about the type of occupiers being accommodated in rural areas, it is quite likely that over the life of the plan rural businesses will seek new space in or around their existing rural location. So, in line with national policy, we would suggest that if rural sites are not presented for inclusion in the plan, then the Council should be permissive in allowing employment development up to a certain threshold appropriate to the surrounding area and not likely to undermine employment growth in the City. To avoid the risk that employment will be viewed as an opportunity to get land allocated in the plan which at a later date can be turned over to an alternative use, there should be a requirement for these sites to be marketed over the life of the plan.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 127 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Distribution of Employment Land in Neath Port Talbot
8.3.17 A significant quantum of land has been identified for allocation by Neath Port Talbot Council. This land includes strategic sites like Baglan Bay (approximately 90 ha), Port Talbot Docklands (23.2 ha), Junction 38 (27.2 ha) and Fabian Way (18.5 ha). Permissions have already been granted for employment at some of these sites and JV agreements for delivery are in place. While the number of sites proposed for allocation is unlikely to diffuse the focus on good sites, the total quantum of land at these sites is greater than the requirement over the Plan period and it is therefore recommended that the Council should reconsider the allocation of land at Junction 38 of the M4 and potentially reduce the land supply at Fabian Way and at the Docks.
8.3.18 Away from the M4 corridor there will be very limited demand for business space during the plan period. It is recommended therefore that no allocations are made for employment uses in the Neath Port Talbot Valleys. This is because the Valleys area will be unable to compete with the better located sites in the rest of the County Borough around the M4 motorway. Instead, our recommendation to the Council is to use proactive support for any new employment space provision in line with the emerging LDP’s strategy for invigorating the Valleys. This is better than simply a case of allocating land and expecting the market to deliver the desired type of space. Instead if this type of space is to be delivered, to meet wider policy objectives, then the Council needs a positive development management approach.
8.3.19 As part of a permissive development management approach, small scale employment uses should be encouraged as a priority when considering a change of use in the Neath Port Talbot Valleys. The Council should also be permissive in allowing employment development up to a certain size threshold. Planning policy should also consider the whole economy rather than focus on the ‘employment uses’ in Valley areas, because the differences between the two is becoming more blurred as the non B-sectors like tourism will also create wealth, jobs and incomes like the traditional employment sectors.
8.3.20 Another way of meeting any market demand and trying to invigorate development in the Neath Port Talbot Valleys is to secure it as part of housing schemes. Providing new houses will be vital to help keep the remote valleys areas vibrant; with a mix of population and demographic profiles. It is realistic to ask developers to consider providing space for light employment uses as part of their scheme; even if this means that the total amount of land developed is slightly larger. Also, the greatest risk to the Valleys’ economy is not necessary the supply of employment sites; instead the real risk to the economy is one of changing demographics and declining average household sizes with the loss of working age people.
Employment Land Policy Recommendations
8.3.21 We consider the policy recommendations in relation to Swansea’s employment sites, which we assessed. These recommendations may also apply to Neath Port Talbot’s sites allocation based on our review of the sites portfolio assessments and review of the local economy and property market conditions.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 128 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Safeguarding Existing Employment Estates
8.3.22 It should also be noted that applicants are often eager to replace existing sites or buildings because they could potentially be replaced by higher density development; often including a mix of higher value uses. However experience shows that over time the trend has been for owners to reduce their employment land commitments; claiming that they are not viable to develop. There is a risk that owners of the safeguarded sites will not promote their sites for employment uses and therefore fail to deliver them to meet market demand. Careful management of these sites, policy wording and policy applications will be needed to ensure that developers comprehensively implement their developments.
8.3.23 Where development for employment uses is unviable, and is unlikely to be the case over the plan period, then alternative uses may be considered. The true litmus test will always be whether a developer can successfully develop their site and/or let their property. To test for this, there should be a minimum good practice guide to effective marketing. It is recommended that:
Sites should be marketed by a reputable local or national agent who can demonstrate a track record of letting employment space in the area.
There should be a visible for sale or letting board on the land or property; marketing material should be published on the internet, including popular online property databases such as Focus and EGi in addition to the Council’s property database.
Marketing campaigns should not be abandoned for at least 18 months from when the letting board is erected and the property is advertised online (i.e. not simply from when agents were appointed).
Advertised rents should be reasonable, reflecting market conditions and the condition of the property.
Lease terms offered should be attractive to the market:
- At least three years, with longer terms, up to five years or longer, if the occupier needs to undertake some works; and
- And/or short term flexible leases for smaller units which are appropriate for SMEs.
8.3.24 To judge if marketing has conformed to these standards, the Councils will need to be well informed about market conditions, so they can judge what is reasonable in terms of both rents and lease periods and of what standard of works may be required to bring a unit back into use. We would suggest that they collect basic market information at annual intervals, as part of the development plan monitoring process.
Releasing Existing Land
8.3.25 Compounding the need to release safeguarded sites is the fact that most are in use for industrial/warehousing activity, which is projected to experience reduced requirements for space over the plan period (excluding the requirements in the RWP), particularly in
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 129 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Swansea, so there will probably be a need for some managed release of existing sites during the course of the LDP period. This should be kept under review and any exceptions to the protection policy above should be allowed where the following criteria should apply:
Where it can be demonstrated that they no longer remain viable for continued employment uses under current market conditions or in their current physical state. This should be irrespective of achievable values from other alternative uses, and also based on the location and the physical characteristics and not solely the suitability of the built space.
Where their continued use for employment purposes would have unacceptable impacts on the environment or local amenity.
Where existing space may be redeveloped for employment uses that achieve a higher level of employment. This may include mixed use developments.
Should there be losses within existing land in use for the purposes of B-space employment, then better quality sites and replacement space should be identified that would involve no net loss of employment space.
Housing Requirement Recommendations
8.3.26 Peter Brett Associates have identified an indicative housing requirement to support economic growth. It should be noted that this is one of many factors the Council’s need to take into consideration when deciding on the overall housing provision for their LDP, others include population trends, regeneration objectives, environmental impacts and affordable housing need. The indicative housing requirement for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot to support the EE (adj+) scenarios are:
Swansea – 16,421 dwellings; and
Neath Port Talbot - 8,027 dwellings.
8.3.27 It is recommended that the indicative housing requirement is used by the Councils to inform the overall consideration of housing provision within their respective LDP’s.
Priorities for Intervention
8.3.28 Public sector intervention may be required in the form of subsidy, grant or gap funding to support the viability of new employment development. However, with limited public and private funding available now or likely to be in the future, it is recommended that future investment is focussed on securing the delivery of allocated sites with realistic market potential, rather than spreading limited resources too thinly across many sites.
8.3.29 In the short to medium term priority should be given to delivering serviced plots for design and build options, and should also be used to address market failure with regard to the speculative development of workspace for leasehold.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 130 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
8.3.30 Intervention should also be focussed on providing for a range of unit sizes through creating a premises ‘ladder’ within future strategically allocated sites. There is a potential market demand for Grade A premises, which in turn will help to retain businesses within the area as they grow or contract, and attract inward investment. However, more significant intervention might apply to providing for micro-sized businesses, where the low representation of this market suggests a need for including small business spaces for new enterprises to grow into. The short lease 'easy-in easy-out' premises have appeal to those who wish to set up businesses.
8.3.31 In Appendix 4 we discuss issues relating specifically to delivery options for employment sites.
Economic Development Issues
8.3.32 This study is not a general economic development strategy. The focus is on sites and premises. But the sites and premises issues need to be co-ordinated with wider economic development activity for the future prosperity of the Swansea and Neath Port Talbot economies and their residents. We therefore briefly comment on some of these issues.
8.3.33 Before identifying any actions it is first necessary to look at the economic role that Swansea and Neath Port Talbot might play, potentially as a City Region in the future. Our view is that Swansea operates as a successful economy and any actions should be aimed at supporting and enhancing its current role. On this basis, Felindre has potential for being a high value strategic location for inward investment which will benefit businesses and residents more widely than Swansea because of the strategic access. If the objectives of the City Region are to be realised, then some co-ordination of inward investment provision and marketing of Felindre aimed at attracting higher value added employment and ‘quality jobs’ for local people should be a priority for the Welsh Government and all counties within South West Wales.
8.3.34 Given that Neath Port Talbot is not an identified economic hub, the role of partnership working with Swansea and other neighbouring authorities, takes on increased importance. In particular, Neath Port Talbot currently has fewer jobs and consequently a relatively low self- containment rate in that a high proportion of its resident workers work elsewhere in Swansea and South Wales. This in itself is not an economic failing and Neath Port Talbot will be comparable with many similar authorities. Whilst there may be a long-term objective to increase the self-containment rate through supporting jobs, we would argue that this is both difficult and not necessarily efficient. In any event this objective will not be achieved by merely allocating more sites. A more substantial programme of developing the area as a business location would first be required before additional new investment is likely to be attracted.
8.3.35 We highlight skills as a priority issue, because it is the key factor that drives productivity growth. Swansea generally has a highly qualified workforce, but to support greater prosperity, including high value jobs, it is important to encourage businesses to train and develop skills. In Neath Port Talbot, past legacies have left a relatively poorly skilled workforce, particularly for more modern growing sectors which are likely to emerge in the County and neighbouring Swansea, and therefore more significant institutional training and
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 131 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
better understanding of the skills needs of the modern business community is necessary. This work should be co-ordinated by the Council and the education providers.
8.3.36 The strategic transport network should be improved when the PDR is complete. But there were also concerns with local transport links with the valleys, so that working residents in the Valleys have the same job opportunities to the rest of the County, including access to jobs in Swansea. We would therefore recommend that a Strategic Transport Plan is adopted to ensure better links between where jobs are likely to grow (as identified in this study) and residents in the Valleys areas. Without action the situation will only get worse.
8.3.37 We have not dealt specifically with the requirement of the brief to support the shift to the Green Economy, and this in itself will require a separate strategy. We do, however, identify some pertinent considerations with regards to this. Within Swansea and Neath Port Talbot there are a number of specialist firms, along with the Universities, which are working on design and process (manufacturing) activities in low carbon technologies. To assist this, a flagship business park site that is strategically well located with flexible space for new and expanding firms, will help attract new investment. The location for Swansea University’s second campus on Fabian Way would be a suitable example. This can also be used to provide space for an eco-business/innovation campus cluster supported by the Universities, which could be involved in sustainable design to meet the demand for new skills. This may also apply to training for local construction businesses which will need to be involved in delivering more sustainable construction that should become part of the delivery processes for the identified employment land allocations and housing targets in the Local Development Plans. The Councils should also encourage eco-town standards, in terms of waste management through its procurement processes, for any urban extensions which might come forward. An action to deliver green jobs is a green infrastructure project between Swansea and Neath Port Talbot. This would require collaboration between the two local authorities to facilitate green travel along the connecting strategic road corridors like Fabian Way, improving cycle lanes, promoting healthy lifestyles among the local population and workers, etc. Local businesses engaged in landscaping, architectural and environmental sectors could potentially benefit from such training and infrastructure projects.
Summary of Recommendations for Swansea
8.3.38 In Swansea, over the period 2010 – 2025 it is estimated that an additional 14,700 jobs will be created for B1, B2 and B8 uses. 51.3 ha of land needs to be identified to meet this need. To meet this additional land requirement, land is allocated at Swansea Docks to supplement suitable vacant and PDL land within existing industrial/business areas. It is assumed that additional opportunities will occur over time from churn within existing areas although this will have a neutral effect overall on land in business uses. In addition to this, the Felindre Strategic growth area will provide employment opportunities for the wider region.
8.3.39 To meet the County’s economic growth needs up to 2025, the following policy approach is recommended:
Safeguarded Sites:
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 132 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
- Presumption in favour of development of vacant sites and redevelopment of exiting sites for appropriate B class uses within existing business areas;
- Criteria based policy for assessment of proposals for redundant former employment sites; and
- Retention of employment land at Swansea West former Alcoa area, with potential for re-provision within the vicinity if urban extension proposals are advanced.
Future Allocations:
- Identification of inward investment site at Felindre to meet regional aspirations including significant employment provision; and
- 15-20 ha of employment land at Swansea Docks.
Summary of Recommendations for Neath Port Talbot
8.3.40 In Neath Port Talbot, over the period 2011 – 2026 it is estimated that an additional 3,850 jobs will be created for B1, B2 and B8 uses. 20 ha of land needs to be identified to meet this need. To meet this additional land requirement, land is allocated at Baglan Bay, Port Talbot Docks and Coed Darcy to supplement suitable vacant and PDL land within existing industrial/business areas. It should be noted that the Strategic Regeneration Areas represent the physical diversification of the local economy and are likely to result in a net loss of employment land, but importantly deliver a net increase in jobs are as a mimnium maintain existing employment levels. It is also assumed that additional opportunities will occur over time from churn within existing areas although this will have a neutral effect overall on land in business uses.
8.3.41 To meet the County’s economic growth needs up to 2026, the following policy approach is recommended:
Safeguarded Sites:
- Presumption in favour of development of vacant sites and redevelopment of exiting sites for appropriate B class uses within existing business areas; and
- Criteria based policy for assessment of proposals for redundant former employment sites.
Future Allocations:
- Strategic Employment allocation at Baglan Bay; and
- Strategic Regeneration Areas at Coed Darcy and Harbourside (Port Talbot Docks).
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 133 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
8.4 Future Monitoring
8.4.1 There is a need to regularly review the evidence base for the LDP. In this section we identify the stages when ELRs may need revising and how this should be monitored. For instance, where it is evident that there is unexpectedly slow or rapid progress in delivery of employment sites, a new or revised ELR should be undertaken.
8.4.2 In addition, policy is always based on the best knowledge available at the time. Forecasts of future employment land requirements reflect a snapshot in time and, like all forecasts, are never certain and often wrong. Nevertheless, we must use them because no other tools are available to help you plan for the long term – which you are required to do by national and regional guidance. There is another, and less obvious, difficulty in planning for the long term: while forecasts and Plan periods have a definite end date, in reality time will not end abruptly at that date. Good planning has to take account of both the near and the far future, in different ways and with different degrees of precision, with no hard and fast dividing lines between periods.
8.4.3 The best way to deal with these difficulties of course is to Plan, Monitor and Manage (PMM). In this approach, analysis and forecasting and the resulting policies are periodically reviewed and rolled forward.
8.4.4 PMM is particularly important for ensuring that suitable margins of deliverable space (without restrictions) are available to meet with local business churn and choice over the life of the plan. The important action for managing churn and choice is to always have a ready supply of deliverable employment land (i.e. available and not constrained) so not to limit businesses’ desire to upgrade to better accommodations and/or find better locations. This is a margin which should always be available through replenishing deliverable sites when they are taken up. Given that some land will be required for future employment expansion over the life of the plan, there should be an available land supply, and similarly because firms will be relocating or closing, then naturally sites taken up are replenished by the sites which are vacated. However, this is a theoretical proposition, and in reality it might not work like this. Therefore, it is important to monitor and plan accordingly, so that there is always some suitable ‘frictional’ margin of land.
8.4.5 We offer the following approach to monitoring for identifying if a suitable frictional margin is available. This margin should comprise developable land which at any one time is allocated or permitted for B-Class development but cannot yet provide floorspace for occupation; for example because it is under construction or awaiting infrastructure or detailed planning permission. Therefore, the suitable frictional margin of land might equal the annual gross take-up (i.e. completions) times the average time that land spends in the pipeline. Thus, if the average time between a site being allocated or permitted for development and building completion on the site is two years, then at any one time the land in the pipeline should equal two year's take-up. If sites take three years to go through the pipeline, then at any one time three year’s take-up will be need to be in the pipeline, and so forth. For Swansea and Neath Port Talbot, it will therefore be important to monitor the gross take up of land (i.e. not including demolitions) over a number of years to define a suitable annual average, and then
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 134 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
to multiply this by how long the pipeline period typically is. Three years of gross annual take up should normally offer a suitably large enough frictional margin.
8.4.6 In the same spirit of PMM, to ensure the plan is meeting with the market and its own Local Plan objectives, Swansea and Neath Port Talbot councils should undertake the following approaches to monitoring:
Development completions (land demand) and commitments (land supply), focusing on both gross and net floorspace change.
Vacancy rates (both for land and floorspace), rentals and land values compared to competing areas, which provide a direct measure of the balance.
Insofar as possible, business relocations and expansions into and out of the Study Area together with enquiries for business space.
Continuously monitor key economic data, especially employment change by sector.
Review employment forecasts and the resulting demand forecasts at 3-5 year intervals and when there are major step changes in the economy or strategic guidance.
Engage with local stakeholders including property agents, developers, land owners and their representative agents to ensure that there is a suitable supply to meet their needs and strategic economic objectives, and/or to mitigate problems, where possible, in meeting these needs. Regular group sessions such as breakfast workshops are a useful way of facilitating engagement.
Consult the economic development and/or regeneration teams on planning applications which have an implication for a gain or loss of employment. The economic development team should be able to provide valuable information about the suitability of applications and their potential for employment and economic growth.
8.4.7 Finally, Swansea and Neath Port Talbot councils should consider reviewing employment land polices if:
Employment land policies or allocations become inconsistent with the Planning Policy for Wales and any future guidance that is offered on planning for employment space. This may also apply to any city region planning that might be established.
There are changes that cast doubts on the assumptions and findings of the existing ELR, for example if net completions of B-space or employment growth are faster, or the delivery of sites slower, than expected.
8.4.8 In any event, the employment land review (ELR) should be updated every five years, or sooner if there are major step changes in the economy or strategic guidance. This frequency will be necessary to plan adequately for deliverable new space to meet short term demand. But also to ensure there is provision for likely longer-term employment land requirements where investment intervention is required to release land.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 135 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\Final Report Oct\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_October Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Appendix 1 – Sector Definitions and Conversions to B-Space Requirements
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 134 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_Sepember 2012.docx Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Converting Employment to Business Space Requirements
Sector-to-Space Mapping Using the employment sector forecasts, we translate jobs into demand for employment space by following three steps:
Step 1: Sector-to-Space Mapping;
Step 2: Translating Employment into Demand for Space; and
Step 3: Converting Floorspace into Land Area (Plot ratios).
To this end, there are three main areas where the assumptions are applied:
The definition of employment sectors and land use sectors;
Employment density assumptions; and
Plot ratio assumptions.
We look at each of these stages below.
Step 1: Sector-to-Space Mapping
The starting point for any modelling process is the definition of land use sectors, which comprises office jobs, industrial and warehousing jobs and is often referred to as business or B-space jobs.
We translate jobs by sector into jobs by type of space, using sector-to-space mapping.
To identify these jobs we use a range of economic sectors based on the Standard Industrial Classifications (SIC’03), which are listed overleaf. Broadly, offices (which include R&D) are occupied by financial and business services, a sub section of public administration, and publishing. Industrial space is occupied by manufacturing, sewage and refuse disposal, some parts of construction, and motor repairs and maintenance. Warehousing is occupied by a variety of transport and distribution activities.
We merge production and distribution space (industrial and warehousing) into one category, called “industrial/warehousing” because our experience suggests that data on the supply of space - such as CLG floorspace statistics and planning data on completions and commitments – do not distinguish accurately between industrial factories and warehouses. This is not surprising since production and distribution can generally operate in the same buildings and, furthermore, subject to size limitations, space can be transferred between production and distribution without planning permission.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 135 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_Sepember 2012.docx Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
RTP Offices 2003 SIC
SIC 2003 class (4 digit)
7460 : Investigation and security activities 7485 : Secretarial and translation services 7486 : Call centre activities 7487 : Other business activities not elsewhere classified 9111 : Activities of business and employers organisations 9112 : Activities of professional organisations 9120: Activities of trade unions 9132 : Activities of political organisations 9133 : Activities of other membership organisations not elsewhere classified 9211 : Motion picture and video production 9212 : Motion picture and video distribution 9220 : Radio and television activities 9240 : News agency activities
SIC 2003 group (3 digit)
221 : Publishing 741 : Legal, accounting, book-keeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy; market research and public opinion polling; business and management consultancy; holdings 742 : Architectural and engineering activities and related technical consultancy 743 : Technical testing and analysis 744 : Advertising 751 : Administration of the State and the economic and social policy of the community 753 : Compulsory social security activities
SIC 2003 division (2 digit)
65 : Financial intermediation, except insurance and pension funding 66 : Insurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security 67 : Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation 70 : Real estate activities 72 : Computer and related activities 73 : Research and development
RTP Industrial 2003 SIC
SIC 2003 class (4 digit)
5020: Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles 5040 : Sale, maintenance and repair of motorcycles and related parts and accessories
SIC 2003 group (3 digit)
222 : Printing and services activities related to printing 223 : Reproduction of recorded media 453 : Building installation 454 : Building completion
SIC 2003 division (2 digit)
15 : Manufacturing of food and beverages 16 : Manufacture of tobacco products 17 : Manufacture of textiles 18 : Manufacture of wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing of fur 19 : Tanning and dressing of leather; manufacture of luggage, handbags, saddlery, harness and footwear 20 : Manufacture of wood and products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials 21 : Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products 23 : Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 136 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_Sepember 2012.docx Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
24 : Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products 25 : Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 26 : Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products 27 : Manufacture basic metals 28 : Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 29 : Manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified 30 : Manufacture of office machinery and computers 31 : Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus not elsewhere classified 32 : Manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus 33 : Manufacture of medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks 34 : Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 35 : Manufacture of transport equipment 36 : Manufacture of furniture; manufacturing not elsewhere classified 37 : Recycling 90 : Sewage and refuse disposal, sanitation and similar activities
RTP Warehousing 2003 SIC
SIC 2003 class (4 digit)
6024 : Freight transport by road 6311 : Cargo handling 6312 : Storage and warehousing 6321 : Other supporting land transport activities 6411 : National post activities 6412 : Courier activities other than national post activities 7482 : Packaging activities
SIC 2003 division (2 digit) 51 : Wholesale trade and commission trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycle
Step 2: Translating Employment into Demand for Space
To translate these employment forecasts into demand for space, we use the standard employment densities based on a 1997 study by Roger Tym & Partners for SERPLAN (Roger Tym & Partners for SERPLAN, The Use of Business Space: Employment Densities and Working Practices in South East England, 1997). These are as follows:
Offices: 18 sqm per worker
Industrial: 32 sqm per worker
Warehousing: 40 sqm per worker
We prefer to use the densities above to the available alternatives because they are supported by a large and statistically rigorous survey. However, a more recent (albeit not statistically confident) survey by DTZ Pieda (2004) found similar densities (18 sqm net for B1, 34 sqm for B2 and 41 sqm per B8). And similarly, Government Guidance on Use of Employment Densities (2001) offers a compendium of employment densities which also average around those reported above.
Step 3: Converting Floorspace into Land Area
Because planners need to make land allocations in development plans, which are normally controlled by site area (as opposed to floorspace) it is sometime necessary to translate floorspace into land. As a general ‘rule of thumb’ RTP adopts a 40% plot ratio, which is equivalent to 4,000 sqm per hectare.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 137 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_Sepember 2012.docx Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
However, a 40% ratio is probably reasonable for most industrial and warehouse sites, but for offices densities it may be considerably higher, at some sites, especially in town and City Centres. Therefore, where possible, the 40% ratio should be replaced by site-specific figures which take account of local circumstances.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 138 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_Sepember 2012.docx Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Appendix 2 – PBA’s Assessments of Swansea Sites
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 139 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_Sepember 2012.docx Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Introduction
This appendix summarises the results of site appraisals of existing Swansea UDP employment land allocations.
The objective of the site appraisals is to consider the suitability of existing employment land provision to inform recommendations on future employment policy and potential development proposals to meet the demand for land identified in Chapter 5 of the main report.
All UDP allocations were visually assessed during the course of this study. In assessing sites/areas, the following criteria have been used:
Location and site description – Consideration of the location of the area from a sustainability perspective, assessing its location relative to a major urban centre, e.g. whether it is in an edge of centre or out of town location. Existing and/or previous uses are also assessed.
Environmental quality/constraints – Consideration of:
- External Environment – this criterion takes account of the nature and extent of the area’s neighbouring uses and in particular, considers the likely risk of conflict arising from existing or potential future employment uses of the area.
- Internal Environment – this criterion takes account of the shape, topography, prominence and internal layout of the employment area. It also considers whether there are potential areas of risk that are likely to influence the cost of future development, such as contamination, environmental or conservation issues (e.g. listed status, floodplain, area of landscape value, etc.).
Accessibility/strategic access – Consideration of:
- Local Accessibility – this criterion considers the quality of the area/site in terms of its local access characteristics, for example, whether it is located on unclassified roads, or constrained by congestion or other physical factors.
- Strategic Accessibility – this criterion takes account of the proximity of a site to the strategic highway network, principally the motorway and good quality A roads, which is an important locational factor.
Ownership/planning history – An overview of ownership (if known) and any relevant planning history. This helps to inform an assessment on the likelihood of deliverability i.e. is it likely to come forward for employment uses?
Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) – A review of recent market activity, likely market demand and the level of vacancy within the area, in terms of either vacant floorspace or land that is disused or derelict. Market attractiveness, as well as any Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
straints), are considered in relation to development viability.
Policy recommendation – The findings of the site assessment are used to inform a judgement on whether the site should be retained or released. In some cases mixed use developments may be more appropriate.
Former Greyhound Stadium, Site reference 001 Location Swansea West Industrial Estate, Fforest-fach Size 15 ha
Part greenfield site on NW edge of Swansea West Industrial Estate. The site is Council owned and was previously used as a greyhound Site description/Surrounding uses track. Some remains of the track, including a car park and dilapidated building, still remain. The site is part of a 173 ha proposed mixed use urban extension that has been submitted to the LDP process on behalf of Alcoa. The LDP issues proposed masterplan for the area includes a new access road from the north. The land is flat and would form a natural extension to the industrial estate. However, the access roads are quite thin and the surrounding Environmental quality/Constraints employment units are poor quality. A large area within the northern section of the site is within the Afon Llan flood plain. The local roads are narrow and may require work to allow additional employment to be accommodated at this location. The highways issues could potentially be resolved by a proposed new access road from a Accessibility/Strategic access new roundabout junction on Titanium Road which would connect to the A484. Access to the M4 and Swansea city centre along the A483 is good. The land is owned by the City and County of Swansea Council. The Ownership/Planning history greyhound track closed in 2009. The site could form a natural extension to the existing industrial estate suitable for B1/B2/B8 uses. However, due to the condition of Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) surrounding employment units, the limitations of Ystrad Road and its junctions and the zones of flood risk, it is unlikely that this site will be attractive to the market without the urban extension access. Delivery issues indicate that the site is not achievable, but it is Policy recommendation considered that the site offers potential if a strategic mixed use development is considered West of Swansea. Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Land adjoining TIMET works, Swansea Site reference 002 Location West Size 11.5 ha
Greenfield site situated adjacent to the Westfield Industrial Estate, Fforest-fach. TIMET and Alcoa are the main occupiers of Westfield Industrial Estate. Site description/Surrounding uses The site is fenced off and is currently used for grazing. A large proportion of the site is within a flood zone. The site has been promoted by Alcoa, along with Site 001, for employment uses (as part of a mixed use urban extension). The site is part of a 173 ha proposed mixed use urban extension LDP issues that has been submitted on behalf of Alcoa. The proposed masterplan for the area includes a new access road from the north. The site is flat but is partly within a flood zone. Mature trees run Environmental quality/Constraints through the site. High voltage cables run underneath the land from the existing sub-station. An access point to the site could be achieved from the existing roundabout at the entrance to TIMET. The local roads are narrow Accessibility/Strategic access and are unsuitable for large HGVs. This could potentially be resolved by a proposed new link road to the A484. Access to the M4 is reasonable. Private ownership. The land has been promoted for employment as Ownership/Planning history part of an urban extension. Due to its poor location in relation to the road network it is unlikely to be attractive to the market, although it could potentially be utilised by TIMET if they require expansion space. The site would be expensive Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) to deliver as flood alleviation and access works need to be undertaken. There is also a high voltage electricity cable extending under the middle of the site which may need to be moved. Greenfield site with delivery issues e.g. flood, access and utilities. Policy recommendation Consider as part of a wider urban extension if required.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 003 Location Riverside South, Swansea Vale Size 14.9 ha
Greenfield site on the NE periphery of Swansea at Riverside South. Large sections of the site have been developed predominantly for B1 uses. This includes Axis Court, a modern office park of 19 small Site description/Surrounding uses units, which has proved to be attractive to financial and business service sectors. The rest of the site is occupied by AAH Pharaceuticals and Dawnus Construction. There are 2 large plots still available. The remaining plots are flat and already have access points. There Environmental quality/Constraints are no apparent constraints to development. Accessibility/Strategic access Accessibility from the local road network and the M4 is very good. The land is owned by the City and County of Swansea Council and Ownership/Planning history has been part built out for employment uses. Good site in an area of Swansea that has already proved to be an attractive business location. Axis Court is fully built out and there are Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) few identified vacancies. The remaining plots already have access points and there are no identified constraints to development. Safeguard. Plots available adjacent to successful Axis Court B1 Policy recommendation park. No constraints to delivery identified.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 004 Location St. David’s Road, Morriston South Size 1.1 ha
Brownfield site within Morriston South Industrial Estate on the North East edge of Swansea. The site is already in use as a car storage Site description/Surrounding uses depot (KHL Logistics). The land, accessed from St. David’s Road, is hard standing and is surrounded by security fencing. Adjoining uses include a cement works. There are no known constraints on site, although ground Environmental quality/Constraints contamination would need to be assessed. The neighbouring uses, particularly the cement works, are dirty. Access from the local road network and to the M4 is considered to Accessibility/Strategic access be good. Ownership/Planning history The land is owned by the City and County of Swansea Council. Due to the neighbouring dirty uses the site is unlikely to be attractive to many businesses. It is however suitable for its existing use, i.e. Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) storage, or dirty users. Contamination levels would need to be assessed before development can proceed. Policy recommendation UDP allocation in employment use. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Recycling facility, Site reference 005 Location Morriston South Industrial Estate Size 0.9 ha
Brownfield site on Morriston South Industrial Estate at the end of Ferryboat Close. The site, which adjoins the River Tawe, is flat and Site description/Surrounding uses is occupied by a Council recycling facility. Neighbouring uses include larger Council Recycling facilities, which are noisy, unsightly and emit unpleasant odours. The site is PDL and may therefore be contaminated. The land is in Environmental quality/Constraints an area of flood risk. Access to the site is from Ferryboat Close. Access to the M4 and Accessibility/Strategic access city centre is good. Ownership/Planning history The land is owned by the City and County of Swansea Council. Due to the dirty neighbouring uses the site is unlikely to be attractive Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) to modern commercial users. It could be a suitable site for dirty users being moved from elsewhere. Currently in use. Contamination and flood risk may need to be Policy recommendation mitigated before redevelopment can proceed. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Winch Wen Industrial Estate, NE Site reference 006 Location Swansea Size 1.1 ha
Greenfield site located within Winch Wen Industrial Estate on the A4217. The land is adjoining Viking Way and is gently sloping towards the A4217. The land is opposite a PDL site that is currently Site description/Surrounding uses being marketed (see image above). The industrial estate comprises predominantly B2 and B8 premises that date back to the 1970s and 1980s. There are higher than average vacancy rates on the estate. Environmental quality/Constraints None identified, although site levelling will be required. Accessibility from Viking Way will need to be established. Access to Accessibility/Strategic access the A4217 and the M4 is good. Ownership/Planning history The land is owned by the City and County of Swansea Council The site is potentially attractive although take-up may be slow. Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) Apart from site access and levelling there are no known constraints impacting on development viability. No constraints to development identified. Safeguard for Policy recommendation employment uses.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Bruce Road, Swansea West Business Site reference 007 Location Park, Fforest-fach Size 1.8ha
Greenfield site within Swansea West Industrial Park. The site is level, Site description/Surrounding uses well drained, and is currently in agricultural use. Neighbouring plots are built out for modern business uses (including trade counters). There are no known environmental constraints. The southern and Environmental quality/Constraints western edges of the site are bordered by mature vegetation. Although there is no existing access to the site, this could be easily Accessibility/Strategic access achieved (subject to Highways approval). Access to the strategic road network is considered to be reasonable. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The site would be attractive to the market, based on take-up levels at Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) neighbouring plots. There are no known constraints that would impact on development viability. Good site within existing estate. New access and site servicing Policy recommendation required. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
North of Abergelly Road, Swansea Site reference 008 Location West Industrial Park, Fforest-fach Size 0.9 ha
Greenfield site on northern edge of Swansea West Industrial Park. The site is flat, predominantly overgrown with mature trees, and has Site description/Surrounding uses a stream running through it. The southern edge of the site is bordered by dirty employment uses and the northern boundary backs onto residential areas. The site is densely vegetated with mature habitats and will therefore Environmental quality/Constraints require an ecology assessment before development can proceed Local access roads are good. Access to the site could be easily Accessibility/Strategic access achieved. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The site is located in a secondary area away from passing traffic. It is also bordered by dirty employment uses on one side and Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) residential areas on the other. These factors mean that the site is unlikely to be attractive to the market and/or would result in conflict. Unattractive secondary location constrained by neighbouring uses Policy recommendation and flood risk. Discount.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
South of Abergelly Road, Swansea Site reference 009 Location West Industrial Park, Fforest-fach Size 0.4 ha
Small plot of land located between neighbouring employment uses on Site description/Surrounding uses Swansea West Industrial Park. The site is in a secondary area and is surrounded by dirty employment uses. The site is greenfield but is unlikely to have environmental merit. No Environmental quality/Constraints constraints identified. There is an existing access point from Abergelly Road. Access to the Accessibility/Strategic access strategic road network is reasonable. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The site is flat and has an existing access point. However, the Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) secondary location and neighbouring uses mean that it is only suitable for dirty employment uses. Small site that could be developed for small ‘dirty’ B2/Sui generis Policy recommendation uses. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 010 Location Siemens Way, Enterprise Park Size 1.2 ha
Flat greenfield site adjoining Siemens Way, between Post Office sorting depot and the BEMIS factory. The land appears to be well Site description/Surrounding uses drained and backs onto a railway line, and countryside beyond. It is available. Environmental quality/Constraints There are no apparent environmental constraints. There is no existing access point to the site. This could potentially be achieved from neighbouring occupier access points or a new entry Accessibility/strategic access from Siemens Way (subject to Highways approval). Access to the M4 and city centre is considered to be good. Ownership/Planning history The land is owned by the City and County of Swansea Council The site is well located and is likely to be attractive to occupiers of Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) B1/B2/B8 premises. There are no apparent constraints to development, although access would need to be achieved. Policy recommendation Good site. No constraints identified. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
North of St. David’s Road, Site reference 011 Location Morriston South Industrial Estate Size 3.2 ha
PDL site adjoining the A428. The site is set over 2 plots, which are separated by a densely vegetated bank. Both plots have been Site description/Surrounding uses cleared. The site is flat and sits above the River Tawe. Employment uses border the southern and western sections. The site is within the River Tawe floodplain. Development cannot therefore proceed in accordance with TAN 15 until alleviation works Environmental quality/Constraints are completed. Environment Agency works at Swansea Vale should diminish flood risk at this location. The site is PDL and could therefore be contaminated. The main access point to the site from St.David’s Road is blocked by a steep and densely vegetated bank. Another access point from the Accessibility/Strategic access A428 could be reinstated (subject to Highways approval). Access to the M4 is good. Ownership/Planning history The land is owned by the City and County of Swansea Council The site is well located for B1/B2/B8 uses. However, achieving site Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) access and addressing flood risk and contamination issues makes delivery expensive. Investigations indicate that constraints on the site could be overcome Policy recommendation during the course of the plan period through an amelioration scheme similar to that undertaken at Swansea Vale
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
North of Phoenix Road, Garngoch Site reference 012 Location Industrial Estate, Penllergaer Size 2.8 ha
Fully built out section of Garngoch Industrial Estate. Buildings Site description/Surrounding uses comprise modern B1/B8 units, some of which have trade counters. Occupiers include Plasticstore and Solray. Environmental quality/Constraints Good quality business park environment. Local roads are good. Although the village is located some distance Accessibility/Strategic access from Swansea city centre, access to the M4 is considered to be very good. Ownership/Planning history The land is owned by the City and County of Swansea Council. Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) The site is fully built out with modern B1/B8 premises. Policy recommendation Fully built out UDP allocation. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 013 Location Edge of Penllergaer Business Park Size 6.2 ha
Parcel of greenfield land on edge of Penllergaer Business Park, on A48 close to junction 47 of the M4. The land is flat, well drained and is surrounded by dense vegetation (identified in the UDP Policy Site description/Surrounding uses EV23 as a ‘green wedge’). The site is next to a large employment premises occupied by Electric Motion Systems, which has a security controlled access road. No environmental issues have been identified on site. A buffer may Environmental quality/Constraints need to be observed to protect the Llan Valley green wedge. Access points would need to be achieved from Penllergaer Accessibility/Strategic access Business Park and/or the A48. Access to the M4 is good. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. Take-up of land at Penllergaer Business Park has been slow. A speculative office development at the Park remains largely unoccupied. The site is not located in a highly visible location and is Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) isolated from populated areas. However, the site’s proximity to junction 47 and the planned Swansea Vale urban extension may improve take-up levels. Access points will need to be established in order to open up the land. Policy recommendation There is a lack of market demand for the site. Discount.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 014 Location Penllergaer Business Park Size 2.0 ha
Site on existing Penllergaer Business Park, close to junction 47 of the M4. The land is part built out with modern office units. The Site description/Surrounding uses remaining land is undeveloped. It is flat and appears to be well drained. Environmental quality/Constraints No environmental constraints are apparent. An existing access point to the site has been established to service Accessibility/Strategic access the new office space. Access to the M4 is very good. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. Land/premises take-up has been slow despite good accessibility to the M4. Market appeal for B1/B8 uses should be improved by the Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) planned Swansea Vale urban extension close to the site. There are no constraints that may impact on development viability. Policy recommendation Remaining plot in existing business park. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Land North of Players Field Site reference 015 Location Industrial Estate, Clydach Size 1.9 ha
Large site situated between industrial site and the River Tawe. The site has no apparent access points and is densely vegetated. Site description/Surrounding uses Neighbouring uses include scrap metal yards, the River Tawe and a canal. The site is bordered by the River Tawe and a canal. These features make the site difficult to access. Furthermore, the site is within an Environmental quality/Constraints area of flood risk. Levelling and mature vegetation clearance would be required. Access to the site would be difficult to achieve. It is likely that new bridges would be required if access is required over the Accessibility/Strategic access watercourses. Alternatively, access could only be achieved from the existing industrial estate if the dirty employment uses are moved. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The location of the site, as well as neighbouring dirty employment uses, is unlikely to be attractive to developers/businesses. Access Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) problems, combined with flood alleviation work requirements and the limited market attractiveness of the site, are likely to make development unviable. Flood and access issues make the site difficult to deliver in the short Policy recommendation term. However these may be overcome during the course of the plan period with public intervention.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Felin Fach/Corporation Road, Site reference 016 Location Swansea West Size 4.0 ha
Successful business park location that is partly built out predominantly with modern B2/B8 premises, including trade Site description/Surrounding uses counters. Some serviced plots to the south of the Park are still vacant (greenfield). These plots already have access roads and are flat. There are no obvious constraints to development. The site is at the Environmental quality/Constraints top of the business park and is well drained. Access points to the vacant plots are already established. Access Accessibility/Strategic access to the M4 and Swansea city centre is relatively good. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The site has proved attractive to a range of occupiers. Take-up rates have been good. Based on this trend it is likely that the Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) remaining vacant plots will be taken up in the short to medium term. Site servicing is already in place and no constraints to delivery have been identified. Remaining serviced plots at successful business location. No Policy recommendation constraints identified. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 017 Location Sandringham Park, Swansea Vale Size 1.2 ha
Small site on Sandringham Park in NE Swansea, off Upper Site description/Surrounding uses Fforest Way. The site is fully built out, comprising 2 large B1 units, one of which is occupied by the DVLA. Environmental quality/Constraints No environmental constraints have been identified. Accessibility/Strategic access Local and strategic access links are considered to be very good. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The site is fully built out for B1 uses. The future plans of existing Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) tenants are not known. Policy recommendation Fully built out UDP allocation. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 018 Location Sandringham Park, Swansea Vale Size 2.2 ha
Small site on Sandringham Park, off Upper Fforest Way. The site is fully built out, comprising large B1/B8 units, one of which is Site description/Surrounding uses occupied by the Gower College Swansea. The business park is well landscaped and is close to recreational areas. Environmental quality/Constraints No environmental constraints have been identified. Accessibility/Strategic access Local and strategic access links are very good. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The site is fully built out for B1/B8 uses. The future plans of Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) existing tenants are not known. Policy recommendation Fully built out UDP allocation. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Central Business Park (A), Site reference 019 Location Swansea Vale Size 9.5 ha
Site at northern edge of Swansea Enterprise Park. The site can be split into 2 areas. One area is largely built out predominantly for B8 uses. Occupiers include City Link, Menzies Distribution and Glass Systems Ltd. There is still a plot of land adjoining Site description/Surrounding uses these units which is being actively marketed for 9,154 to 41,230 sq.ft. industrial units. The adjoining land to the east of the site is undeveloped. It is located the other side of a small stream and is densely vegetated. A cycle route borders the western and northern edges of the site. The undeveloped land to the west of the site is within a flood zone. Some levelling work may be required. Ecology Environmental quality/Constraints assessments would need to be undertaken before development can proceed. Access to the developed areas is good both locally and to the M4. Accessibility/Strategic access Access to the undeveloped land may require the construction of a bridge. Ownership/Planning history The land is owned by the City and County of Swansea Council. The site has proved to be very attractive to distribution companies in particular. The remaining land adjoining the B8 units is likely to Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) be taken up in the short term. However, the costs associated with opening up the land to the west are likely to be unviable in current market conditions. One remaining plot at UDP allocation. Safeguard for employment Policy recommendation uses but discount site to the west of the stream as it is constrained by flood risk.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Central Business Park (B), Site reference 020 Location Swansea Vale Size 10.5 ha
The frontage of Mill Stream Way is now built out with medium to large B1/B8 premises, including a large speculative B1 Site description/Surrounding uses development (Crucible Park) that lies vacant. Significant plots of land are available at the rear of these premises. Access points to these plots are in place. The undeveloped land is greenfield and appears to be flat, but Environmental quality/Constraints within a flood zone along with surrounding areas and have a known drainage issue. The local road network is good and access points to the remaining points have been established already. Access to the Accessibility/Strategic access M4 and Swansea city centre is very good, as evidenced by the number of distribution operators in the area. Ownership/Planning history The land is owned by the City and County of Swansea Council. The area is popular with distribution operators in particular. It is Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) likely therefore that the remaining plots could be taken up in the short to medium term . There are significant constraints relating to flood risk and a lack of capacity at the sewer pumping stations serving the Central Business Park. The Council have been advised that this will Policy recommendation preclude future development of remaining parcels. Alternative land use options under consideration include park and ride and informal leisure uses.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 021 Location Crofty Industrial Estate, Crofty Size 0.4 ha
Hard standing plot of land in Crofty Industrial Estate that is currently used for caravan storage. The site is flat and is Site description/Surrounding uses surrounded by security fencing and employment uses. There is a residential area to the rear of the site. Environmental quality/Constraints The industrial estate is not well landscaped or maintained. Access to the site is already established. Access to the strategic Accessibility/Strategic access road networks is through Crofty village centre, which is constrained by narrow roads and is not suitable for HGVs. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The industrial estate offers cheap premises for local service businesses. The plot itself already has an access point and it is Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) unlikely that there would be any abnormal costs impacting on development viability. Policy recommendation In employment use. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 022 Location Crofty Industrial Estate, Crofty Size 0.4 ha
Level PDL site with some hardstanding areas and dense vegetation. The site is surrounded by a range of old, small Site description/Surrounding uses business units, some of which may have been unoccupied for a long time. The industrial estate is neither well landscaped nor maintained. Environmental quality/Constraints The site and surrounding premises are in various states of disrepair. Access to the site is already established. Access to the strategic Accessibility/Strategic access road networks is through Crofty village centre, which is constrained by narrow roads and is not suitable for HGVs. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The industrial estate offers cheap premises for local service businesses. The plot itself already has an access point and it is Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) unlikely that there would be any abnormal costs impacting on development viability. Due to the close proximity to housing the site should be restricted to quieter occupiers. Policy recommendation Potentially attractive to small local businesses. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Vieola Site, Site reference 023 Location Crofty Industrial Estate Size 1.3 ha
Area of land on Crofty Industrial Estate that is part covered by business premises and storage yards. These premises are in Site description/Surrounding uses various states of disrepair but serve local business needs. There is a public footpath running through the site, as well as an adjoining stream. The industrial estate is neither well landscaped nor maintained. Environmental quality/Constraints The site and surrounding premises are in various states of disrepair. The stream may be a breeding habitat for newts. Access to the site is already established. Access to the strategic Accessibility/Strategic access road networks is through Crofty village centre, which is constrained by narrow roads and is not suitable for HGVs. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The industrial estate offers cheap premises for local service businesses. The plot itself already has an access point, although Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) opening up the land behind the premises fronting the road may be more problematic. This, as well as potential flood alleviation requirements, will impact on development viability. UDP allocation in employment use. Access to the rear of the site Policy recommendation may not be possible due to existing premises along road frontages and public footpath. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
North of New Road, Site reference 024 Location Crofty Industrial Estate Size 0.7 ha
PDL site at northern edge of Crofty Industrial Estate. The site already has an existing access point. It is surrounded by dirty Site description/Surrounding uses employment uses, including scrap merchants, and storage areas. The northern edge of the site backs onto saltmarsh areas. The site and surrounding uses are messy. There are mounds of Environmental quality/Constraints rubble on site. Access to the site is already established. Access to the strategic Accessibility/Strategic access road networks is through Crofty village centre, which is constrained by narrow roads and is not suitable for HGVs. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The industrial estate offers cheap premises for local service businesses. The plot itself already has an access point but will Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) only be attractive to dirty businesses. This, as well as potential flood alleviation requirements, will impact on development viability. Policy recommendation Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Crofty Industrial Estate, Site reference 025 Location Crofty Size 2.0 ha
Part PDL site at the western end of Crofty Industrial Estate. The site is gently sloping and is set over different levels. Site description/Surrounding uses Adjoining uses include a shellfish processing unit and car mechanics. The site is PDL that has reverted back to grassland. Levelling Environmental quality/Constraints will be required before development can proceed. Flood protection works may be required. Access to the site is already in place, although new servicing Accessibility/Strategic access will be required to open up the plots. Like the other sites at Crofty, links to the strategic network are limited. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The industrial estate offers cheap premises for local service businesses. The plot itself already has an access point but will Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) only be attractive to local businesses. This, as well as potential flood alleviation requirements, will impact on development viability. Policy recommendation Safeguard for small business requirements.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Edge of Players Field Site reference 026 Location Industrial Estate, Clydach Size 1.9 ha
Site adjacent to Players Field Industrial Estate in Clydach. The Site description/Surrounding uses land is currently densely vegetated. Much of the site is within a flood zone. An ecology assessment Environmental quality/Constraints will be required before development can commence. An access point to the site has been established from an Accessibility/Strategic access existing roundabout on the industrial estate. Links to the M4 are good. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. Players Field Industrial Estate is built out with a range of B2/B8 premises. These are taken up by utilities providers, storage and scrap metal dealers. The development of remaining land Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) will require significant clearance which could be expensive. With low potential rental levels it is unlikely that this will be viable in the short term. There are flood risk and infrastructure issues that constrain the Policy recommendation site, however these may be overcome during the course of the plan period
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Riverside North, Swansea Site reference 027 Location Vale Size 15.7 ha
Large greenfield site on edge of existing employment areas. The land slopes down to the River Tawe, which borders the Site description/Surrounding uses northern and western edges of the site. A small area of land next to the roundabout is used for a park and ride facility. Much of the land is within a flood zone and cannot therefore be developed until works are undertaken to ensure conformity with Environmental quality/Constraints TAN 15. Swansea Council is working to resolve this situation in partnership with the Environment Agency, who plans to construct a bund across the site. Access points to the site have been established. On site Accessibility/Strategic access servicing will be required. Access to the M4 at junction 46 is considered to be very good. The land is owned by the City and County of Swansea Council. Ownership/Planning history A Joint Venture between the Council and the Welsh Government is in place to deliver Swansea Vale sites. The site is well located in relation to the M4 and the successful take-up of neighbouring sites indicates that it would be commercially attractive. However, the site cannot come forward Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) until flood issues have been resolved. A new flood defence is to be constructed diagonally NE to SW across the site The scheme planned by the Environment Agency would limit the developable area of the site by a half. Large strategic site close to M4 on the edge of a successful business park which has proved attractive to B1 occupiers through developments. Current proposed works to ameliorate flood risk will reduce the site area by around a half. The Policy recommendation primary purpose of these works is to mitigate flood risk across the wider Swansea Vale estate, but will not enable new development at this particular site. Land use options going forward are limited to informal/low intensity leisure uses.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
South of Garngoch Site reference 028 Location Industrial Estate Size 3.6 ha
Serviced plots of land on the edge of Garncoch Industrial Estate in Penllergaer. Only one unit has been developed to Site description/Surrounding uses date. Access points from Phoenix Way have already been established. Mixed use urban extensions are being considered at LDP issues Penllergaer. The site is flat and well drained. No constraints to development Environmental quality/Constraints have been identified. Access points from Phoenix Way have already been Accessibility/Strategic access established. Access through Penllergaer to the M4 is good. Ownership/Planning history The land is owned by the City and County of Swansea Council. Garncoch Industrial Estate is a popular business location. The estate has a variety of premises, some of which are old. New developments to the north of Phoenix Way indicate that the site Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) is potentially commercially attractive. This attractiveness will be enhanced when the Swansea Vale urban extension has been developed. Access points have already been established and no abnormal costs to development are apparent. Good site in popular business location. No identified Policy recommendation constraints. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 029 Location Swansea Port Gateway Size 8.9 ha
Large PDL site close to Swansea Port that is part of the Swansea Bay Waterfront Regeneration Area. The land is accessed from Fabian Way. This access is the main route for Site description/Surrounding uses traffic entering the Port area, including HGVs. The site is part developed for a range of uses, including a hotel, car showrooms, storage, a restaurant, a driver training centre and a pumping station. There are a number of remaining plots. The available plots are PDL. The land is flat and no constraints are apparent. Contamination issues may need to be Environmental quality/Constraints investigated. Regular HGV movements through the site impact on air quality/noise. The site is accessed from Fabian Way. Pedestrian access to Accessibility/Strategic access the city centre is not in place at the moment. Access to the M4 is good. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The attractiveness of the sites are diminished by heavy HGV movements to and from the port. Access to the remaining plots Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) would need to be established. No other constraints are apparent, although contamination will need to be assessed. Some large parcels of land remaining. Suitable for B8 uses Policy recommendation linked to port. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 030 Location Swansea Port Area Size 5.3 ha
Large PDL site at Swansea docks next to site 031 that is part of the Swansea Bay Waterfront Regeneration Area. Rail line runs close to the site. The land is flat but slopes to the west, Site description/Surrounding uses which could result in a reduced developable area. The site is close to Swansea Port. Road access to the Port borders the site, although the road is quiet. The site is predominantly hard standing PDL. Vegetated banks Environmental quality/Constraints lie to the west. Contamination issues may need to be investigated. Access to the site from Fabian Way will need some Accessibility/Strategic access improvement if the site is to be opened up for development. Conflict with Port traffic will need to be resolved. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. This site, along with the adjoining 031 land, remains undeveloped and is not being marketed. Given the close proximity of the sites to Swansea Docks it is likely that the land could prove to be attractive for B8 occupiers that utilise Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) shipping for imports and/or exports. There are no apparent constraints to overcome that will add significant cost to development. However, access and site servicing works will be expensive and contamination works may be required. Suitable for B8 uses linked to port. Site servicing expensive to Policy recommendation deliver. Consider for allocation.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 031 Location Swansea Docks Size 17.6 ha
Large PDL site at Swansea docks next to site 030 that is part of the Swansea Bay Waterfront Regeneration Area. A rail line runs through the site. The land is flat but slopes to the west, Site description/Surrounding uses which could result in a reduced developable area. The site is close to Swansea Port. Road access to the Port borders the site, although the road is quiet. Environmental quality/Constraints The land is flat and no significant constraints are apparent. Access to the site will need to be improved. There may be Accessibility/Strategic access contamination on site. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. This site, along with the adjoining 030 land, remains undeveloped and is not being marketed. Given the close proximity of the sites to Swansea Docks it is likely that the land could prove to be attractive for B8 occupiers that utilise Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) shipping for imports and/or exports. There are no apparent constraints to overcome that will add significant cost to development. However, access and site servicing works will be expensive and contamination works may be required. Suitable for B8 uses linked to port. Site servicing expensive to Policy recommendation deliver. Consider for allocation.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 032 Location SA1 Size 5.9 ha
SA1 is well progressed, although some large development plots remain. Some residential properties are already complete. Work has commenced on a new primary care Site description/Surrounding uses centre. A number of other schemes are also close to on site commencement, including a new 416 space multi-story car park. The mixed use development includes office space. The site is a flat waterside location close to the city centre. The Environmental quality/Constraints remaining plots are PDL so may require decontamination work. Access to all of the SA1 areas has been established in Accessibility/Strategic access accordance with the overall masterplan. Access to the M4 is good. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. SA1 has proved to be an attractive location for businesses, with high office rental levels being achieved. The remaining plots of land will be developed in accordance with the Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) masterplan. The Welsh Government has invested significant funding to date to cover infrastructure and remediation costs. Once completed it is predicted that SA1 will secure around 4,000 jobs over 2,000 new residential properties. Policy recommendation Some remaining plots. Safeguard.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 033 Location Felindre, Bryntwood Road Size 8.1 ha
Part of a large UDP employment allocation to the north of the M4 at Junction 46. The site is not part of the Joint Venture Site description/Surrounding uses between the Council and WAG. The site is between the M4 and the railway line. The site is currently in use as agricultural grazing land. The land borders 034 and 035. An alternative approach for Felindre, comprising major housing development alongside business development, associated LDP issues supporting uses, community facilities and open space is being considered. Agricultural land used for grazing. The site is flat and well Environmental quality/Constraints drained. Access to the site is already established. The site is on Accessibility/Strategic access Bryntwood Road, which joins with the A48 south of the M4. Ownership/Planning history Welsh Government. Remote from Swansea and not part of the wider Felindre Investment site. Significant funding has already been Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) committed to remediate the land to the north of the site. Further public sector intervention will be required to make development viable, indicating delivery is unlikely. Delivery issues indicate that the site is not achievable, but it is Policy recommendation considered that the site offers potential if a larger strategic mixed use development is considered at Felindre.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 034 Location Felindre Garden Centre Size 7.9 ha
Part of a large PDL site to the north of the M4 at Junction 46. The site is not part of the Joint Venture between the Council Site description/Surrounding uses and WAG. The site is between the M4 and the railway line. The site currently has dilapidated buildings on it, as well as agricultural land to the rear. An alternative approach for Felindre, comprising major housing development alongside business development, associated LDP issues supporting uses, community facilities and open space is being considered. Some site levelling and clearance will be required. A small area Environmental quality/Constraints of land is liable to flooding. Existing access to the site is via Bryntwood Road, which joins with the A48 south of the M4. New access arrangements will Accessibility/Strategic access be developed as part of the planning for the overall Felindre site. Ownership/Planning history Welsh Government. Remote from Swansea and not part of the wider Felindre Investment site. Significant funding has already been Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) committed to remediate the land to the north of the site. Further public sector intervention will be required to make development viable. Delivery issues indicate that the site is not achievable, but it is Policy recommendation considered that the site offers potential if a larger strategic mixed use development is considered at Felindre.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Felindre Main Site, Site reference 035 Location (Brownfield) Size 43 ha
Large strategic UDP allocation close to Junction 46 of the M4. PDL site previously occupied by the Felindre Tinplate Works. Part of the circa 190 ha site north of Junction 46 that is being brought forward as a Joint Venture between the Council and WAG. The Council and Welsh Government’s vision for Site description/Surrounding uses Felindre is to develop the site as a high level strategic business park serving South Wales. The Welsh Government has already funded reclamation/remediation and infrastructure works (site preparation; provision of utilities and diversions; construction of a new site access including with M4). An alternative approach for Felindre, comprising major housing development alongside business development, associated LDP issues supporting uses, community facilities and open space, is being considered. Environmental quality/Constraints Site remediation has already been undertaken. Accessibility/Strategic access A new access road from the M4 has already been constructed. Ownership/Planning history The land is owned by the City and County of Swansea Council. This site has been identified by the Council and Welsh Government for high quality B1, B2 uses for emerging industries, high tech manufacturing and high level services plus ancillary uses. Sui generis and waste facility uses are also Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) being considered. Significant funding has already been committed to remediate the land to the north of the site. Further public sector intervention will be required to make development viable. Good site with access to J46 of the M4. Allocate as a Regionally Significant Site for major inward investment Policy recommendation requirements. Already part of a larger site with Outline Planning Permission
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 036 Location Llansamlet Industrial Estate Size 2.3 ha
Linear shaped PDL site on Llansamlet Industrial Estate, Nantong Way. The site is bordered by the River Tawe and is Site description/Surrounding uses within an area of flood risk. Neighbouring occupiers include Virgin and a modern office development (Horizon Park). The site is within an area of flood risk and alleviation works will Environmental quality/Constraints therefore be required before development commences in order to ensure compliance with TAN15. There is no access to the site currently. It is likely however that Accessibility/Strategic access this could be achieved from an existing roundabout next to the site. Access to the M4 and town centre is good. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The estate has proved to be a popular location for high profile B1 occupiers. The site can only come forward if flood Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) alleviation works can be delivered. This will be costly and could limit the developable area. Likely high delivery costs linked to flood protection make site Policy recommendation unviable. Flood protection measures would probably leave a very limited development area. Discount.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Coronet Road, Morriston Site reference 037 Location South Industrial Estate Size 2.1 ha
Cleared PDL site on Morriston South Industrial Estate. The site is accessed from Coronet Way, although a bund has been Site description/Surrounding uses constructed between the road and the site. The site is next to the River Tawe, and is within a flood zone. Neighbouring uses include a busy Council recycling facility. The site is flat and has previously been used as an industrial site. However, future development at the site cannot proceed Environmental quality/Constraints until flood issues are addressed. There may be contamination on site. The bund between the existing access from Coronet Way and the site will need to be cleared. The alternative access over the Accessibility/Strategic access River Tawe is via a weak bridge and is therefore unsuitable in its current state. Access to the M4 is good. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The site is unlikely to be attractive to a majority of businesses, given the presence of a large recycling facility on the neighbouring land. The recycling facility is messy and the site may therefore only be suitable for ‘dirty’ businesses. Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) Development viability is affected by flood and access issues. Whilst the access could be reinstated from Coronet Way, the solutions for addressing flood risk are likely to be expensive and could reduce the developable area. High delivery costs associated with flood risk and access make Policy recommendation site unviable. Discount.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Site reference 038 Location Alberta Culver, Century Park Size 0.3 ha
Small parcel of greenfield land on edge of Century Park. The site is flat and is surrounded by concrete walls. There is no Site description/Surrounding uses obvious access point from the existing business park, although this can be achieved from the Alberta Culver site. The site is bordered by the River Tawe and a stream. It is in a Environmental quality/Constraints flood plain, although concrete bunds are already in place. Further works may be required. Access to the site will need to be established via the existing Accessibility/Strategic access industrial estate. Access to the M4 and Swansea city centre is good. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The site is small and could only really accommodate a few small B1/B8 units or an extension to the existing Alberta Culver facility. The attractiveness of the site to potential developers is Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) likely to be diminished by the concrete bund that borders the site. Viability will be affected by any additional flood protection measures that may be required. Policy recommendation Small site. Difficult to deliver. Discount.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Appendix 2 - Swansea Employment Sites Assessment Report
Felindre Northern Extension Site reference 039 Location (Greenfield) Size 134 ha
Very large site to the north of the M4 at junction 46. The site, previously occupied by the Felindre Tinplate Works, is next to sites 033, 034 and 035. Part of the circa 190 ha site north of Junction 46 that is being brought forward as a Joint Venture between the Council and WAG. The Council and Welsh Site description/Surrounding uses Government’s vision for Felindre is to develop the site as a high level strategic business park serving South Wales. The PDL parts are cleared and the remainder of the site comprises woodland and agricultural grazing land. The land is sloping in places and has several streams running through it. An alternative approach for Felindre, comprising major housing development alongside business development, associated LDP issues supporting uses, community facilities and open space is being considered. Although the land does not have environmental designations, ecology assessments and necessary mitigation will need to be Environmental quality/Constraints undertaken before development can proceed. Significant vegetation clearance and levelling will be required. New access points will need to be established from the B4489. Accessibility/Strategic access Access to the M4 is very good. Ownership/Planning history Unknown. The site is potentially very attractive to B8 occupiers. However, the neighbouring site (035) is better positioned in relation to the existing road network and has already been prepared/serviced. It is unlikely therefore that this site will be Viability (market attractiveness/delivery) required during the Plan period. The servicing of such a large site, including levelling and access works, will be very expensive. It is likely therefore that significant public sector intervention will be required to deliver employment at the site. Allocate as a Regionally Significant Site for major inward investment requirements. Already part of a larger site that has Policy recommendation Outline Planning Permission. Consider mixed use development to assist with delivery.
Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Appendix 3 – NPTCBC’s Assessments of Neath Port Talbot Sites
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 141 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_Sepember 2012.docx Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Appendix 4 – Delivery Issues and Options
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 143 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_Sepember 2012.docx Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Introduction In this Appendix we look at factors constraining employment land development in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot and offer ideas on delivery options and implementation tools to help bring sites forward.
Development Constraints Within the Study Area, bringing new business floorspace forward onto the market has sometimes proved problematic, hence the often cited response of agents that there is a lack of “good quality space for offices and industrial units”. The major constraints we have identified in this study are:
Market viability, where development risks and costs for employment uses, including the developer’s return, exceed achievable values, this creates negative site values and thus no incentive to investment (see further comments about market viability below).
If site servicing and preparation raises costs to uneconomic levels, development will not be forthcoming. The scale of infrastructure costs can also discourage development, especially if it involves major investment in, for example, roads.
The ability of the market to absorb large developments of a single use class.
Planning policy (site allocations) may be out of sync with the market, such that land fails to be developed because:
- There is insufficient pressure on land (i.e. insufficient demand) to raise values to levels needed to make development attractive;
- More land is allocated for a use than the market wants or can absorb;
- Sites are allocated for a scale or particular use that the market cannot deliver (because of the relationship between demand/market for the end use, development risks and costs, a developer’s required rate of return and the end value of development); or
- Sites of the wrong type in the wrong location with the wrong operating environments, etc, have been allocated without any clear mechanisms for delivery.
Lack of progress on high quality property, small business spaces, freeholds and large development sites identified solely for employment use are likely to be the consequence of one or a combination of the above factors.
These factors are not unique to Swansea and Neath Port Talbot, and there are no magic solutions to solve these problems. The completion of this employment land study and the integration of the conclusions of this into the new LDPs may now offer the right vehicle to mitigate these deliverability problems.
Market Signals The critical point to understand is that just because an allocated employment site is not developed it does not mean that the problem is one of ‘delivery’. It can be interpreted as a market signal indicating
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 144 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_Sepember 2012.docx Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
that this is not the best use for the site. This is a point emphasised in the Barker Review of Land Use Planning which states that… “Market signals provide important information for planners in determining the most efficient use of land.”18
Market Viability The viability of the development of any given site will depend upon market conditions at that particular time, including rental and capital values, and upon site specific factors such as higher than average project costs. For example, the need for piling due to poor ground conditions; remediation of contaminated land; flood protection measures and/or need to raise floor levels and provide compensatory flood storage; infrastructure costs such as new access roads, highway improvements/roundabouts; availability and capacity of utility supplies; Section 106 Agreement costs; costs incurred in obtaining planning consent including professional advisors etc. If development does not provide an adequate profit margin then schemes are unlikely to proceed.
Delivery Options In generating recommendations for development options we have considered a number of the conclusions from the consultation workshops and follow on consultations and research as part of this study. They include the following observations:
Anchor Developments Pre-lets or anchor developments are important to realising the larger development schemes. But for this to be identified as a ‘practical’ solution the developer will need to have an identified end user, to know how much space they will buy and when.
Mix of Uses Re-allocating employment land across a wider number of uses will improve the marketability of land supply because it shares the infrastructure costs across these other uses, hence reducing development costs for employment space. This is very cost effective however it would need to balanced with the needs and aspiration of the local authority areas. In the following bullet points we look at where planning may improve take up of land:
Mixed use development is likely to be more marketable than single uses on larger sites. The reason the market likes mixed use schemes is that it spreads developers’ risks – but this also depends on the site, the local market and the mix of uses and scale of development.
Following on the above comment, an element of retail, such as retail warehousing or trade counters is likely to attract business and may need to be part of the mix. However, this needs to depend on where the development is and the strategic importance of the site for the sub-area.
Allow residential use as an enabling development on larger sites to help kick start development of the commercial elements, but again this would need to be assessed
18 Box 1.1 - Barker Review of Land Use Planning – (December 2006)
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 145 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_Sepember 2012.docx Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
against the strategic importance of a particular site and its suitability for business use without any residential element.
Greater realism. Where planning policy allocations are made on the basis of aspiration development is likely to be frustrated. This is a key rationale behind the requirement for employment land reviews and for the recommendations for reducing the quantum of land in this study.
Increasing Intensity It is possible to achieve more intensive use of space in designing the site development options, for example the mixed use options could be conditional on achieving higher densities, which would increase or maintain employment numbers on less space than the existing users. But the viability of these uses will be a critical consideration, and location is particularly important from a planning perspective. Where developments are in or close to town centres and transport hubs, then the potential for delivery of intensive schemes improves. However if occupiers are to be attracted, it is vital for any schemes to allow for adequate servicing, circulation and parking space. Increasing the intensity of most existing business areas is likely to be a realistic option for most of the locations in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot.
Transport and Communication Improvements Access and capacity on the strategic road network is important to businesses for gaining access to labour, receiving supplies and distributing goods. Therefore this affects a location’s ability to attract investors.
Implementation Tools There are various tools planning authorities may rely on for bringing sites forward for development. These mostly relate to planning gain by allowing developers to build something that will generate profit beyond the normal developer mark-up. Achieving planning gain may be achieved through the statutory planning system, either via planning documents or by individually negotiating S106 agreements on a site by site basis or through a combination of the two approaches.
Development Plan Documents It is often considered that the role of planning in fostering economic development is perhaps not as well developed as it should be, especially in comparison with other land uses issues, such as housing or conservation. A range of new and emerging national initiatives are currently providing new opportunities in this direction, including Enterprise Zones, Tax Increment Finance and Local Development Orders.
Planning should also intervene positively to stimulate demand and encourage development, through tools like development briefs, Area Action Plans and masterplans, which would assist in addressing economic development issues in a wider, spatial context. These would be able to address economic objectives and to integrate them with infrastructure, housing and environmental considerations in a holistic manner. They would also identify any cross subsidy required to be identified and planning gain to be shared out in a manner consistent with the overall policy objectives of the LDPs and in a
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 146 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_Sepember 2012.docx Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
transparent fashion open to public scrutiny. Complementary strategies to tackle issues such as skills will enhance the market attractiveness of the area as a place for inward investment.
S106 Agreements and CIL (Community Infrastructure Levy) Currently most developer contributions towards infrastructure are through the S106 system, however it is possible that S106 can help to pay for or subsidise employment space, e.g. small workspaces. In a study by McFarlane19, it was found that only 15 per cent of English local authorities had used or try to use S106 agreements to generate employment or training opportunities. London boroughs were more likely to have used S106 for these purposes, which is probably because of strong housing demand and return on developments. When local authorities were asked why they had not used S106, the most popular comments suggested a lack awareness of these possibilities or concerns about the legality of such requests.
S106 is only justified under certain circumstances to make development appropriate where it would not be otherwise. However, it is important to capture planning gain for wider infrastructure for the whole area, not just infrastructure that is local to the development. Further to this, the arrival of CIL will enable strategic and non-site specific contributions to cross subsidise infrastructure/employment development.
Business Plan In planning for bringing sites to the market, and in seeking to maximise the wider economic returns for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot, it is helpful to develop business plan(s) for key sites. On a site specific basis it may help to first set out a better understanding of why new development does not come forward and then to look at the types of initiatives that have been tried in order to facilitate development of employment floorspace.
Among other things, it is important that each site/area business plan identifies the following:
Outcomes being sought, e.g. amount of commercial space, type of space;
Types of interventions, if necessary, required for bringing sites forward;
Delivery arrangements;
Where investment might be sourced, for example:
- S106 agreement;
- Community Investment Fund;
- Local authority prudential borrowing; and
- Welsh Government and European funding.
This approach is clearly needed in order to bring forward Felindre and Baglan Bay potential allocations.
19 Richard McFarlene, Local jobs from local development: The use of Planning Agreements to target training and employment outcomes, 2006
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 147 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_Sepember 2012.docx Economic Assessment & Employment Land Provision for Swansea and Neath Port Talbot Final Report
Funding It is more likely that commercial development will be driven by the private sector and therefore intrinsic viability will be a crucial issue. There may be some scope for public funding of development and this would need investigating with a project in mind. Public sector support for office and industrial development may rely on Welsh Government and European funding.
In considering funding options, discussions should be carried out with Economic Development and External Funding officers within the councils, and sub-regional Development Managers in the Welsh Government. The Welsh Government is also a key partner in developing the Felindre and Baglan Bay sites, which will enhance the prospects of co-ordinated and joint action to stimulate the economic regeneration of this part of the South West Wales sub-region.
Land Contributions One specific form of gap funding can be through a contribution from the local authority in the form of land or of site servicing. Land at nil value reduces overall development costs, hence improving viability. Clearly such a step has opportunity costs and needs weighing in terms of the Council’s overall objectives and will most importantly depend upon the location and suitability of land holdings.
Also, local authorities may help facilitate developments where there are land ownership issues by purchasing land using developer funding. For instance if a site is in multiple ownership then the Council through use (or threatened use) of CPO powers may be more persuasive in acquiring land into single ownership to release development.
J:\26688 NPT & Swansea Economic Growth & Land 148 Provision\Live\Reporting\Reports\Final Report\120829 26688_Employment Land Study Final Report_Sepember 2012.docx