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SDA for Lake Carrying Capacity

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SDA for Lake Carrying Capacity TheThe UtilityUtility ofof SystemSystem DynamicsDynamics AnalysisAnalysis ForFor ManagingManaging LakeLake SustainabilitySustainability NH Lakes Management Advisory Committee Paul Currier and Lori Siegel New Hampshire DES February 23, 2007 NHDES Presentation Outline •Define SDA • Explain utility in understanding and managing lake carrying capacity • Summarize value added for making decisions to optimize strategies NHDES System Dynamics Analysis (SDA) •Innovative approach to evaluate complex problems where factors affecting output are interconnected and change with time •Methodology that addresses the complex interactions that may lead to unintended consequences and counter-intuitive behavior, simultaneously managing continuous and discontinuous relationships •Capable of evaluating how systems will behave as a result of change, be it due to decided actions or uncontrolled events. NHDES Challenge – Justification for SDA • Need to optimize environmental risk management strategies • Strategy must properly plan and sequence activities to be: ¾ Cost and time effective ¾ Protective of natural resources ¾ Satisfactory to users and non-users of lake NHDES Challenge – Justification for SDA 1) Optimize (not maximize) the user’s lake experience! 2) Uses of lake(s) surfaces should be regulated to maintain compatibility among users without degrading lake resources!!! NHDES What Are Systems? • Systems are networks of positive and negative feedbacks – Everything is connected to everything else – You can’t “just do one thing” – Unintended consequences and counter-intuitive behavior • Systems are dynamic because feedbacks interact – Nonlinear feedback dynamics – Positive feedback: Self-reinforcing, i.e., amplify trends in place – Balancing feedback: Self-correcting, i.e., oppose change – Causal tracing maps system behavior • Feedback captures learning, changing future behavior NHDES Simple Yet Complex System of Cause and Effect economics supply demand NHDES What SDA Offers • Single platform for decision-making – Common basis for analysis and choice – Integrated consequences – Unintended consequences • Helps decision makers make complicated decisions – Multiple options, in series or together – Affordability – Resource sustainability – Capital improvement • Provides basis for consistent risk communication NHDES Level of Effort Required ADAPTABLE TO SCALE OF INTEREST AND REQUESTED LEVEL OF EFFORT NHDES Justification to Use SDA • Provide insight into a problem • Develop innovative solutions • Optimize strategies CLIENTS INVEST IN SDA WHEN THEY WANT TO BETTER UNDERSTAND AND ACHIEVE THE BEST POSSIBLE RETURN ON THEIR INVESTMENT OR PROTECTION OF ASSETS NHDES Chickens and Egg Example Environmental capacity Eggs + + + R Chickens This is a REINFORCING feedback loop NHDES SDA Approach • Functional relationships – Constants – Equations – Tabular input – Graphical interpretations of a relationship • Definitions of each functional relationship are based on – Field characterization data if available – Otherwise it is based on hypothetical data that is consistent with those presented in the literature • Model development and analyses proceed iteratively, refining the model with increasing knowledge of the system • Sensitivity analyses for the communication and defense of choices to stakeholders NHDES Building Blocks for Analysis: Stock & Flow METAPHOR A Bathtub STOCK & FLOW DIAGRAM Stock Inflow Outflow DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION d(Stock)/dt = Net Change in Stock = Inflow(t) – Outflow (t) From Sterman, 2001 NHDES Stock and Flow Formulation ¾Mass balance ¾Take derivatives with time ¾Continuity, chain rule, and rearranging ¾Constraints, e.g., equilibrium ¾Solve for flows, i.e., fluxes NHDES SDA for Lake Capacity Management •Aquatic ecosystems are complex systems, with networks of positive and negative feedback loops •Each management decision may directly an/or indirectly affect several parameters, comprehensively driving, for better or worse, the ecological integrity and sustainability of the lake for its intended use •SDA needed to understand and predict consequences of management options to optimize outcomes NHDES Multiple Complexities of Carrying Capacity • Ecological System • Sociological Phenomenon • Human and Watershed Development NHDES Carrying Capacity Management Tools •Spatial - limit use(s) to certain lakes or portions of lakes •Time - limit use(s) to time of day and/or day of the week • Activity - limit use to certain lakes and/or portion of lakes (zones) • Horsepower limits NHDES Multiple Factors/Decisions/Events Challenges Intuition Population Types of Proximity boats Daily variation Intensity of Dev. Seasonal variations Support facilities Climate Personal Association satisfaction involvement Dynamic modeling provides for consistent decision process NHDES Stock and Flow – Non-Powered Boating Daily sailboating Yearly sailboating intensity intensity Daily canoeing Yearly canoeing intensity intensity Sailing Sailboating frequency Canoeing <Time of year> Canoeing frequency <Time of day> <TIME STEP> <TIME STEP> <Time of day> <Time of year> Kayaking Kayaking Windsurfing frequency Windsurfing Yearly kayaking frequency intensity Daily kayaking Daily windsurfing intensity intensity Yearly windsurfing intensity NHDES Stock and Flow – Powered Boating Daily LP boat Yearly LP intensity intensity Yearly parasail intensity Low power boats <TIME STEP> LP boat frequency Parasailing Daily parasail Parasailing intensity frequency <Time of year> <Time of day> <Time of year> <Time of day> <TIME STEP> High power boats Yearly HP HP boat frequency intensity Waterskiing Daily HP boat Waterskiing <TIME STEP> intensity frequency Daily waterski intensity Yearly waterski intensity <Time of day> Yearly jetski Pontoons Pontoon frequency intensity <Time of year> Jetskiing Daily pontoon Jetskiing frequency Daily jetski Yearly pontoon intensity intensity intensity <Time of year> NHDES <TIME STEP> <Time of day> Stock and Flow – Individuals’ Activities Yearly Daily snorkeling swimming <Sediment intensity intensity Yearly snorkeling Daily resuspension> swimming intensity intensity Swim area Snorkeling Snorkeling Swimming area Snorkeling Swimming <TIME STEP> frequency frequency <TIME STEP> <Time of year> <Time of year> <Time of day> <Time of day> Daily fishing Yearly fishing intensity intensity <Fish integrity> Fish reduction from Fish area fishing Fishing Fishing <TIME STEP> frequency <Time of year> <Time of day> NHDES Stock and Flow – Non-Powered Boat Impacts <Sailing> <Canoeing> <Canoeing> <Sailing> Sediment resuspension Sediment resuspension Erosion from Erosion from from sailing from canoeing sailing canoing Sediment resuspension Erosion from NP from N P boating boating Erosion from Erosion from Sediment resuspension windsurfing kayaking Sediment resuspension from kayaking <Windsurfing> <Kayaking> from windsurfing <Kayaking> <Windsurfing> <Sailing> <Canoeing> DO impacts from DO impacts from sailing canoeing DO impacts from DO impacts from NP boating windsurfing DO impacts from kayaking <Kayaking> NHDES <Windsurfing> Stock and Flow – Powered Boat Impacts <Low power <High power <Low power <Waterskiing> boats> boats> boats> Sediment resuspension Sediment resuspension Erosion from Erosion from LP from HP <High power waterskiing from LP boats> <Waterskiing> Erosion from Sediment resuspension Erosion from HP Sediment resuspension Sediment resuspension powered boating from powered boating Erosion from from parasailing from waterskiing parasailing Erosion from <Parasailing> Sediment resuspension pontoons Erosion from Sediment resuspension from pontoons jetskiing from jetskiing <Parasailing> <Pontoons> <Jetskiing> <Pontoons> <Jetskiing> <High power boats> <Low power <High power <Parasailing> <Low power boats> boats> DO impacts boats> from HP <Parasailing> DO impacts Noise from HP Noise from LP from LP DO impacts from Noise from parasailing parasailing Noise from DO impacts from Noise from powered boating DO impacts from powered boating waterskiing waterskiing <Waterskiing> <Waterskiing> Noise from DO impact from pontoons DO impacts from pontoons Noise from <Pontoons> jetskiing jetskiing NHDES <Jetskiing> <Jetskiing> <Pontoons> Stock and Flow – Individuals’ Impacts <Swimming> <Snorkeling> <Snorkeling> <Fishing> <Fishing> <Swimming> Erosion impact from Erosion impact from Erosion impact Sediment resuspension snorkeling from snorkeling Sediment resuspension swimming from fishing Sediment resuspension from swimming from fishing Erosion from Sediment resuspension individuals from individuals <Swimming> <Fishing> <Snorkeling> DO impacts from DO impacts from fishing swimming DO impacts from snorkeling DO impact from individuals NHDES Stock and Flow - Fish Integrity Rate of Hg on fish <Fish Hg> <Toxic microbes> Rate of water on Rate of toxic <Water levels> fish Hg impact on fish microbes on fish <Beneficial Toxic microbes microbes> impact on fish Water levels on Fish integrity Rate of ben Beneficial fish <Total fish reduction microbes on fish microbes on fish <Bird weight> from fishing> Fish abundance <DO> Base fish increase Fish birth Fish death DO impacts on fish <Total noise> Boat noise impact Rate of DO on fish on fish Erosion impact on fish Sediment Rate of noise on resuspension fish impact on fish Rate of erosion Rate of sediment <Total erosion> on fish resuspension on fish <Sediment resuspension> NHDES Causes Tree – High Powered Boats Daily HP boat intensity (High power boats) Time Time of day One day HP boat frequency High power boats (Time) Hours per year Time of year One year Yearly HP
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