Political Science and Political Economy Working Paper Department of Government London School of Economics No. 8/2007 From Doves to Hawks: A Spatial Analysis of Voting in the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, 1997-2007 Simon Hix (LSE) Bjorn Hoyland (University of Oslo) Nick Vivyan (LSE) From Doves to Hawks: A Spatial Analysis of Voting in the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, 1997-2007 Simon Hix1, Bjorn Hoyland2 and Nick Vivyan3 21 November 2007 1 Professor of European and Comparative Politics, Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science, Email:
[email protected]. 2 Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Email:
[email protected]. 3 PhD Student, Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science, Email:
[email protected]. Abstract This paper examines the making of UK monetary policy between 1997 and 2007 using an analysis of voting behaviour in the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). We use a Bayesian method to estimate the interest rate policy preferences of the MPC members on a ‘dove-hawk’ scale. Then, by comparing the ‘ideal points’ of outgoing members with their successors, we find evidence that MPC composition complements the fiscal policies pursued by the government. The revealed preferences of the MPC members suggest three distinct groups; ‘the doves’, who favour lower interest rates than the median committee member; ‘the centrists’, whose revealed preferences are in line with the median committee member; and ‘the hawks’, who favour higher interest rates than the median committee member.