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The Retail Property Market

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First Half 2019 RETAIL THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET FRANCE THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Key figures PURCHASING POWER CONSUMER CONFIDENCE* INFLATION* HOTEL ARRIVALS* +2.1% in 2019* 101 in June 2019 +1.3% in 2019 -1.5% in Q1 2019** Record level since 2007 +14 points since January 2019 +2.1% in 2018 +6.3% in comparison with Q1 2017 Source: Banque de France Source: INSEE Source: Banque de France Source: Paris Tourism Office *Annual increase / Forecast *Synthetic confidence index *Including energy and food *Total number, in Paris / **Annual increase SPECIALISED RETAIL SALES* LUXURY STORES AMOUNTS INVESTED* PRIME RENT (Zone A) +0.5% in H1 2019* 40 openings in 2019* €1.3 bn in H1 2019 €20,000/m²/year in H1 2019* +24.6% for online sales 40 on average between 2014 and 2018 -21% year on year €20,000/m²/year in H1 2018 Source: Procos Source: Knight Frank Source: Knight Frank Source: Knight Frank *Annual increase, in France *In Paris, data at end-June 2019 *In France, all asset types *Champs-Élysées 2 FIRST HALF OF 2019 ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Economic and political environment Robust Back to normal Economic indicators for France Household opinion Annual growth in %, unless otherwise noted Composite index – Data adjusted for seasonal and working-day variations 130 Indicator 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 120 GDP 1.0 2.4 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.4 108 Inflation 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 110 Household consumption 1.6 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.5 100 101 Household income¹ 1.6 1.4 1.2 2.3 1.5 1.3 90 87 Unemployment (France) 10.1 9.4 9.1 8.6 8.3 8.1 80 ¹Household gross disposable income / f: forecast juil-07 juil-18 oct-04 oct-15 avr-10 juin-08 juin-19 mai-09 déc-02 nov-03 déc-13 nov-14 févr-01 févr-12 janv-02 janv-13 sept-05 sept-16 août-06 août-17 mars-00 mars-11 Source: Banque de France, macroeconomic forecasts Source: INSEE • After peaking in 2017 and slowing in 2018, the French economy will continue to decline in 2019 because of a less favourable global economy. The low level of exports should be compensated by more robust domestic demand, even though consumer spending has been weak since the beginning of the year. • Although the French are currently putting their cash into savings products, they may gradually increase their consumer spending. Purchasing power has improved significantly, consumer confidence has risen and the yellow vest movement is running out of steam. 4 THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Economic and political environment A decline to put into perspective Few foreign visitors overall Change in the number of tourist arrivals in Paris hotels Hotel arrivals in Paris by nationality in Q1 2019 In millions Change in % from Q1 2018 UNITED STATES 301,819 visitors 3.75 +0.6% ▲ Q1 2019 1.8 UNITED KINGDOM 1.95 234,630 visitors +1.5% ▲ 3.81 ITALY 134,686 visitors Q1 2018 1.73 +4.8% ▲ 2.08 GERMANY FRANCE 134,538 visitors 1,802,411 visitors +4.1% ▲ 3.53 -1.6% ▼ Q1 2017 1.74 CHINA 1.79 80,556 visitors -9.8% ▼ Total French Foreign … TOTAL 1,945,852 visitors Source: Paris Tourism Office INTERNATIONAL -6.3% ▼ Source: Paris Tourism Office VISITORS • The downward trend at the end of 2018 continued into Q1 2019, with Paris hotel arrivals down 1.5%. However, over two years the trend remains positive, up 6.3% from Q1 2017. • The uneven results since the beginning of 2019 are due to a decline in the number of foreign visitors. The yellow vest movement has had an impact on certain nationalities (e.g. the Chinese and Japanese). As the movement gradually slows, visitor numbers could revive in H2 2019. 5 FIRST HALF OF 2019 RETAILER STRATEGIES AND FORMATS THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Retailer strategies and formats Growth steady Significant potential Online sales revenue Share of online sales in total retail sales In France International examples 100 50% Spain 4.6 90 Italy 5.2 80 40% 34% 33% Austria 6.7 70 60 28% 30% France 8.8 25% 24% 50 22% 19% Sweden 9.5 40 20% 15% Germany 11.0 14% 14% 14% 13% 12% 30 12% United States 13.7 20 10% Netherlands 13.7 10 15.6 20.0 25.0 31.0 37.7 45.0 51.1 57.5 64.9 72.0 81.7 92.6 24.9 0 11.6 0% Denmark 14.7 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Q1) United Kingdom 17.0% Sales (€ bn) Annual growth (%) Source: Fevad Source: Euromonitor • After rising 13% in 2018, online sales increased 12% in France in Q1 2019, to €24.9 billion. The French market should be able to hold this pace over the months to come, crossing the symbolic threshold of €100 million by the end of 2019. • Online sales still have significant growth potential. Although they account for less than 10% of retail sales in France, in more mature markets (e.g. US, Netherlands, UK) they are in the 14–17% range. 7 THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Retailer strategies and formats From hidden costs of online sales… Indexing and Delivery and reverse technology logistics Every second lost for web page loading on a While free returns have become standard, they weigh retail website translates to a 7% decline in increasingly on the profitability of online retailers. In the sales. United States, the cost of returns will total $550 billion in 2020* (+75.2% over four years). *Source: SEMRush, from analysis of 1,300 retail sites *Source: Statista Social and Tax and regulatory environmental pressure pressure Amazon was widely criticised for its practice of destroying On 11 July 2019, France officially adopted the GAFA defective products (or products returned by customers) tax, which taxes corporations on 3% of sales made in even when the products were still functional. A product France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising repairability index may be mandatory by 2021*. purposes, connecting of users via platforms). *Bill concerning the fight against waste and the circular economy 8 THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Retailer strategies and formats …to advantages of a store network -9.5% The loss of online traffic caused by the Emerging brands (i.e. brands less than ten years old) experience a 32% closing of a fashion retail store in a given rise in online traffic for each new physical store opened, compared with market. 27% for established brands. Source: ICSC, “How Bricks Impact Clicks” Source: ICSC, “How Bricks Impact Clicks” 9 THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Retailer strategies and formats DNVB [Digital Native Vertical Brands], a fast-growing model Brand 1st year of business Number of single-brand stores* Jimmy Fairly 2011 32 Balibaris 2010 24 Le Slip Français 2011 14 Lunettes pour tous 2014 13 Faguo 2009 13 Sézane 2013 7 Sensee 2011 5 Bobbies 2010 4 Polette 2011 3 Miliboo 2007 2 Tediber 2015 1 Sources: France-dnvb.com, Knight Frank / *Excl. large distribution retailers and department stores, at end-June 2019 • The phenomenon is not new, but DNVB popularity continues to rise with the expansion of single-brand store networks. Some brands develop faster than others (e.g. Jimmy Fairly, Balibaris and Le Slip Français). • DNVB tend to take their own individual approach to retailing. They are distinguished by more direct relations with consumers, by an emphasis on the quality of customer service, and by a greater overlap between online retail and physical stores. 10 THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Retailer strategies and formats DNVB [Digital Native Vertical Brands], a fast-growing model Favoured choices for openings DNVB stores by product category In France, out of total store openings of DNVB at end-June 2019* In France, for total store openings of DNVB at end-June 2019* Type Location Out of total store openings of 1 1 8% DNVB High streets Paris / Greater Paris region 8% 90% 61% 29% Out of total 46% 2 2 number of 52% DNVB Shopping centres Regional cities 32% 14% 8% 28% 11% 3 3 Other** Other Fashion Eyewear Beauty/Cosmetics Other 2% 11% Sources: France-dnvb.com, Knight Frank / *Excl. large distribution retailers Sources: France-dnvb.com, Knight Frank / *Excl. large distribution retailers and department and department stores / **Factory outlets, airports, train stations etc. stores • DNVB choose to open mainly in high streets. They continue to prefer Paris (Marais, etc.) for their store openings, as well as the most attractive high streets of dynamic, mid-sized regional cities (Biarritz, Cannes, etc.). • The number of DNVB stores remains low. The stores serve mainly as a supplement to online activity and to raise the brand’s profile. Nevertheless, the DNVB physical network is growing along with new investments, rising popularity and the need to increase the number of 11 contact points with customers. THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Retailer strategies and formats 233 new retailers since 2014 Focus on new foreign retailers Annual change in number of new foreign retailers in France Number of stores by retailer Data at end-June 2019 Share in % of total openings of new retailers since 2014 in France 2014 37 100% 90% 2015 40 Others / Excl. Top 10 80% 43% Pittarosso, Five Guys, Deichmann, Old Wild West, Yamamay, etc. 70% 2016 46 60% 50% Others / Top 10 2017 40% 31% Flying Tiger, Sostrene Grene, 37 Rituals, Nyx, Muy Mucho, etc. 30% 20% 2018 45 10% 26% 0% 28 Moyenne 2014-2018 Source: Knight Frank Source: Knight Frank • More than 40 new foreign retailers open in France each year.
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